Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.18B
• Dividend Yield: 9.32%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: -18.22%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 167,723,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,312,137
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,296,373
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.71
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.74
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 44.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 44.25
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.02K
• 1Y Price Target: $21.00
• Price Target Upside: 7.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.67
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $456.76M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.50 ▲(5.13% Upside)

BXMT scores moderately well, driven primarily by a constructive earnings-call backdrop (strong results, positive credit trends, robust pipeline, and capital returns). This is balanced by below-average financial profile strength due to high leverage and historical earnings volatility, while technicals are only mildly supportive and valuation is mixed (high yield offset by a high P/E).

Positive Factors

Strong Balance Sheet

A robust balance sheet with significant liquidity and reduced leverage enhances financial stability and flexibility, supporting long-term growth.

Improved Credit Composition

Improved credit composition and reduced office exposure mitigate risk and align the portfolio with more stable asset classes, enhancing resilience.

Successful Impaired Loan Resolutions

Resolving impaired loans at a premium strengthens the balance sheet and reduces risk, contributing to long-term financial health and stability.

Negative Factors

GAAP Net Loss

A GAAP net loss indicates challenges in profitability, which could affect investor confidence and limit reinvestment opportunities.

Timing Mismatch Affecting Earnings

Timing mismatches in investments and repayments can lead to earnings volatility, impacting financial predictability and strategic planning.

Remaining Impaired Loans Burden

The presence of impaired loans continues to weigh on earnings, posing risks to profitability and requiring ongoing management focus.

Blackstone Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates senior loans collateralized by commercial properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. The company operates as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to U.S. federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as Capital Trust, Inc. and changed its name to Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. in May 2013. Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the interest income from its portfolio of senior loans secured by high-quality commercial real estate assets. The company originates loans for a broad range of property types, offering flexible financing solutions tailored to meet the needs of borrowers. Revenue is also derived from fees associated with loan origination, including commitment fees and syndication fees, which contribute to the company's earnings. BXMT's performance is closely tied to the health of the real estate markets in which it operates, as well as its ability to manage credit risk and interest rate fluctuations effectively. The company leverages its association with Blackstone, accessing its global network and expertise in real estate to enhance deal sourcing, underwriting, and asset management capabilities.

Blackstone Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall, Blackstone Mortgage demonstrates resilience in cash flow generation and a strong balance sheet with zero debt, positioning it well for future stability. However, the significant net income decline raises concerns about profitability and operational efficiency. The company should focus on improving income generation while maintaining its solid liquidity position.

Income Statement

Blackstone Mortgage's income statement reveals a significant decline in net income, resulting in a negative net profit margin for the latest annual period. The gross profit margin remains solid at 100% due to the nature of its revenue recognition, but EBIT margins have decreased compared to prior years. Furthermore, the company experienced revenue growth from the previous year, but the net income deterioration poses concerns regarding profitability sustainability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position, with a current debt-to-equity ratio of 0, as the company has cleared its debt, significantly improving from previous years. However, the return on equity has turned negative due to the substantial net loss. The equity ratio stands at approximately 19%, reflecting a moderately leveraged balance sheet, common in the REIT industry.

Cash Flow

Blackstone Mortgage's cash flow statement highlights robust free cash flow generation despite the net loss, with a stable operating cash flow that exceeds net income, indicating good cash earnings quality. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, and cash reserves have increased significantly, suggesting improved liquidity and financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	412.54M	1.77B	670.66M	628.05M	514.47M	432.18M
Gross Profit	412.54M	1.66B	670.66M	628.05M	426.00M	432.18M
EBITDA	3.63M	1.10B	0.00	0.00	419.62M	0.00
Net Income	107.20M	-204.09M	246.56M	248.64M	419.19M	137.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.70B	19.80B	24.04B	25.35B	22.70B	16.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	377.92M	323.48M	350.01M	291.34M	551.15M	290.49M
Total Debt	0.00	15.73B	19.30B	20.44B	17.90B	12.91B
Total Liabilities	16.10B	16.01B	19.65B	20.81B	18.08B	13.05B
Stockholders Equity	3.59B	3.79B	4.37B	4.52B	4.59B	3.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	224.11M	365.86M	458.84M	396.82M	382.48M	336.61M
Operating Cash Flow	224.11M	366.45M	458.84M	396.82M	382.48M	336.61M
Investing Cash Flow	1.95B	3.50B	1.44B	-3.25B	-5.63B	-88.25M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.12B	-3.88B	-1.85B	2.61B	5.51B	-110.77M

Blackstone Mortgage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BXMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.87, above the 50-day MA of 19.25, and above the 200-day MA of 18.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BXMT.

Blackstone Mortgage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LADR	66 Neutral	$1.37B	17.33	5.26%	8.21%	-17.18%	-17.16%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
TRTX	64 Neutral	$702.79M	13.87	5.87%	10.48%	-10.86%	-5.90%
ARI	64 Neutral	$1.38B	11.26	7.26%	9.89%	0.29%	―
FBRT	61 Neutral	$808.72M	12.41	5.88%	13.31%	-0.93%	-1.92%
BXMT	60 Neutral	$3.18B	31.32	2.88%	9.32%	-18.22%	―
KREF	52 Neutral	$517.28M	-22.63	-0.16%	11.33%	-24.37%	-19.19%

Blackstone Mortgage Corporate Events

Blackstone Mortgage Appoints Jean Hsu to Board

On October 22, 2025, Blackstone Mortgage Trust announced the appointment of Jean Hsu to its Board of Directors, expanding the board from eight to nine members. Ms. Hsu brings over 25 years of global investment experience, having previously served in senior roles at CalPERS, including Head of Private Debt and Managing Investment Director. Her expertise in fixed income, real estate, private credit, and structured products is expected to benefit the company and its shareholders, supporting its strategic growth in the real estate credit sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (BXMT) stock is a Hold with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blackstone Mortgage stock, see the BXMT Stock Forecast page.