Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT)
NYSE:BXMT
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Blackstone Mortgage
(NYSE:BXMT)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▲(2.04% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker financial statement quality (earnings volatility, historically high leverage, and the sharp 2025 cash-flow deterioration in the provided data). This is partly offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook highlighting improved portfolio performance and funding, while technicals are neutral and valuation is mixed (high yield but high P/E).
Positive Factors
Global origination platform
BXMT's scale across origination and trading (US, Europe, Australia) creates a durable proprietary pipeline. Broad deal flow supports diversified underwriting, repeatable fee and interest income, and competitive access to pricing—reducing reliance on any single market and aiding consistent deployment over months.
Negative Factors
Elevated historical leverage
Sustained leverage at multi‑times equity increases sensitivity to CRE valuation moves and funding shocks. For a mortgage REIT, high leverage amplifies earnings swings from spread compression or credit losses, limits balance‑sheet flexibility, and raises refinancing risk if markets tighten again.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Global origination platform
BXMT's scale across origination and trading (US, Europe, Australia) creates a durable proprietary pipeline. Broad deal flow supports diversified underwriting, repeatable fee and interest income, and competitive access to pricing—reducing reliance on any single market and aiding consistent deployment over months.
Read all positive factors
Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.31B
Dividend Yield9.32%
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.8
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth-18.22%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.07
Shares Outstanding168,738,650
10 Day Avg. Volume1,448,434
30 Day Avg. Volume1,474,531
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)2.15
P/FCF Ratio11.86
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.50Price Target Upside9.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$483.98M
Blackstone Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates senior loans collateralized by commercial properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. The company operates as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax ...
How the Company Makes Money
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the interest income from its portfolio of senior loans secured by high-quality commercial real estate assets. The company originates loans for a broad range of property types, off...
Blackstone Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful progress on credit performance, active capital markets execution, diversified deal origination and a clear strategy to redeploy capital—supported by strong liquidity and funding improvements. However, significant Q4 reserve charge-offs and related DE volatility highlight execution and earnings risks in the near term, and some held REO and subordinated losses will weigh on short-term performance. On balance, the positives around a 99% performing portfolio, improved funding costs, strong origination/trading volumes, active deployment and shareholder returns outweigh the quarter's charge-off–driven weakness.Positive Updates
Strong Operating Performance and Credit Improvement
Loan portfolio 99% performing by year-end; resolved $575 million of impaired loans in Q4, reducing impaired loan balance to just under $90 million; upgraded six loans in Q4; no new impaired loans or watchlist additions in Q4.
Negative Updates
Large Reserve Charge-Offs Dragging Distributable Earnings
Q4 DE was negative $2.07 per share, driven by $434 million of reserve charge-offs related to resolution of five impaired loans and write-off of three subordinate loans (previously impaired and carried to zero).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operating Performance and Credit Improvement
Loan portfolio 99% performing by year-end; resolved $575 million of impaired loans in Q4, reducing impaired loan balance to just under $90 million; upgraded six loans in Q4; no new impaired loans or watchlist additions in Q4.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance was cautiously constructive: they expect continued portfolio improvement and selective capital deployment—plans include selectively exiting owned real estate to redeploy capital and remaining patient on timing—backed by Q4 and FY25 metrics: GAAP net income $0.24/sh, distributable earnings (DE) -$2.07/sh (DE prior to charge‑offs $0.51/sh) which covered the $0.47 dividend for the second consecutive quarter, book value $20.75/sh, dividend yield 9.5% (540 bps spread to the 10‑yr Treasury), liquidity $1.0B, weighted‑average corporate debt maturities 4.3 years with no maturities until 2027, non‑mark‑to‑market borrowings nearly 85%, $1.5B of investments closed in Q4 and ~ $7B in 2025 (≈85% in multifamily/industrial/net‑lease/bank‑loan portfolios), total investment portfolio ~$20B (including an $18B loan portfolio and $1.3B owned real estate across 12 properties generating $18M NOI in Q4), loan portfolio 99% performing after resolving $575M of impaired loans (impaired balance < $90M), repaid >$300M of office loans in Q1 to date, closed a $1B CLO in January and inaugural European CMBS in December, while continuing capital returns (≈$60M repurchased this quarter, ≈$140M since July 2024) and pursuing additional portfolio and financing opportunities as markets normalize (CMBS issuance +40% YoY, new loan requests +50% YoY in January).Blackstone Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.52B | 1.77B | 2.01B | 1.32B | 847.73M |
| Gross Profit | 1.17B | 1.65B | 1.89B | 1.21B | 759.26M |
| EBITDA | 1.17B | 1.10B | 1.62B | 965.06M | 756.00M |
| Net Income | 109.57M | -204.09M | 246.56M | 248.64M | 419.19M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 20.00B | 19.80B | 24.04B | 25.35B | 22.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 452.53M | 323.48M | 350.01M | 291.34M | 551.15M |
| Total Debt | 16.18B | 15.73B | 19.30B | 20.44B | 17.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.50B | 16.01B | 19.65B | 20.81B | 18.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.50B | 3.79B | 4.37B | 4.52B | 4.59B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 275.87M | 365.86M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 275.87M | 366.45M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 359.40M | 3.50B | 1.44B | -3.25B | -5.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -514.42M | -3.88B | -1.85B | 2.61B | 5.51B |
Blackstone Mortgage Technical Analysis
Positive
19.60
Price Trends
18.84
Positive
18.78
Positive
18.28
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Negative
61.57
Neutral
94.01
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BXMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.64, above the 50-day MA of 18.84, and above the 200-day MA of 18.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BXMT.
Blackstone Mortgage Risk Analysis
Blackstone Mortgage disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blackstone Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blackstone Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $1.51B | 10.61 | 6.83% | 9.89% | 0.29% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $632.32M | 42.40 | 5.52% | 10.48% | -10.86% | -5.90% | |
55 Neutral | $3.31B | 29.85 | 3.05% | 9.32% | -18.22% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $1.26B | 21.49 | 4.28% | 8.21% | -17.18% | -17.16% | |
54 Neutral | $701.97M | 9.99 | 5.60% | 13.31% | -0.93% | -1.92% | |
49 Neutral | $411.31M | ― | -3.80% | 11.33% | -24.37% | -19.19% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
19.60
3.19
19.47%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.86
3.34
44.47%
LADR
Ladder Capital
9.89
0.62
6.73%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
6.36
-1.56
-19.72%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
8.07
1.80
28.79%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
8.67
-1.05
-10.77%
Blackstone Mortgage Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Names New Chief Financial Officer
Neutral
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Blackstone Mortgage Trust appointed its Deputy Chief Financial Officer, Marcin Urbaszek, as Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary, following Board approval on February 8, 2026. Urbaszek, who joined Blacks...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.