Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) AI Stock Analysis

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Blackstone Mortgage

(NYSE:BXMT)

Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:―

Blackstone Mortgage Trust's stock score reflects strong cash flow and a solid balance sheet, despite profitability concerns. The technical analysis suggests a neutral trend with potential short-term caution. Valuation is appealing, with a high dividend yield and a stock price below book value. Recent earnings call highlights improvements in portfolio and balance sheet strength, positioning BXMT for future growth opportunities.

Positive Factors

Asset Management Effectiveness

The company resolved a significant portion of impaired assets above their carrying value, indicating effective asset management.

International Business Strength

The company has a strong international business, with credit performance remaining robust and no historical losses on international assets.

Strategic Growth Plan

There is a strategic plan to increase origination volume and grow the portfolio, with a target of reaching $20 billion.

Negative Factors

Book Value Decline

The book value declined by 1.3%, reflecting some challenges in maintaining asset value.

Dividend Coverage Issue

Distributable earnings excluding the realized losses did not quite cover the $0.47/share quarterly dividend with a coverage ratio of 94%.

Earnings Forecast Downgrade

Earnings estimates have been revised downward due to a lower earnings run-rate and modestly lower asset growth.

Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.32B

Dividend Yield10.94%

Average Volume (3M)1.33M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.83

Revenue Growth-20.46%

EPS Growth-1436.71%

CountryUS

EmployeesN/A

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength62

IndustryREIT - Mortgage

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.17

Shares Outstanding171,580,180

10 Day Avg. Volume1,161,796

30 Day Avg. Volume1,334,693

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.67

Price to Book (P/B)0.89

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio11.99

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.78

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.75

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.88

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.83

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$19.83

Price Target Upside6.16% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering6

Blackstone Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates senior loans collateralized by commercial properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. The company operates as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to U.S. federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as Capital Trust, Inc. and changed its name to Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. in May 2013. Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes MoneyBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the interest income from its portfolio of senior loans secured by high-quality commercial real estate assets. The company originates loans for a broad range of property types, offering flexible financing solutions tailored to meet the needs of borrowers. Revenue is also derived from fees associated with loan origination, including commitment fees and syndication fees, which contribute to the company's earnings. BXMT's performance is closely tied to the health of the real estate markets in which it operates, as well as its ability to manage credit risk and interest rate fluctuations effectively. The company leverages its association with Blackstone, accessing its global network and expertise in real estate to enhance deal sourcing, underwriting, and asset management capabilities.

Blackstone Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall, Blackstone Mortgage demonstrates resilience in cash flow generation and a strong balance sheet with zero debt, positioning it well for future stability. However, the significant net income decline raises concerns about profitability and operational efficiency. The company should focus on improving income generation while maintaining its solid liquidity position.

Income Statement

Neutral

Blackstone Mortgage's income statement reveals a significant decline in net income, resulting in a negative net profit margin for the latest annual period. The gross profit margin remains solid at 100% due to the nature of its revenue recognition, but EBIT margins have decreased compared to prior years. Furthermore, the company experienced revenue growth from the previous year, but the net income deterioration poses concerns regarding profitability sustainability.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position, with a current debt-to-equity ratio of 0, as the company has cleared its debt, significantly improving from previous years. However, the return on equity has turned negative due to the substantial net loss. The equity ratio stands at approximately 19%, reflecting a moderately leveraged balance sheet, common in the REIT industry.

Cash Flow

Positive

Blackstone Mortgage's cash flow statement highlights robust free cash flow generation despite the net loss, with a stable operating cash flow that exceeds net income, indicating good cash earnings quality. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, and cash reserves have increased significantly, suggesting improved liquidity and financial flexibility.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
814.69M	498.53M	420.88M	628.05M	514.47M	432.18M
	Gross Profit
665.99M	493.18M	420.88M	517.76M	426.00M	354.26M
	EBIT
547.51M	1.09B	250.64M	960.13M	419.62M	137.99M
	EBITDA
437.23M	1.10B	0.00	962.55M	419.62M	137.99M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-80.61M	-204.09M	246.56M	248.64M	419.19M	137.67M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
668.56M	323.48M	350.01M	291.34M	551.15M	289.97M
	Total Assets
19.96B	19.80B	24.04B	25.35B	22.70B	16.96B
	Total Debt
0.00	15.73B	19.30B	20.44B	17.51B	12.46B
	Net Debt
15.26B	15.41B	18.95B	20.15B	16.96B	12.17B
	Total Liabilities
16.27B	16.01B	19.65B	20.81B	18.08B	13.05B
	Stockholders Equity
3.68B	3.79B	4.37B	4.52B	4.59B	3.89B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
271.25M	365.86M	458.84M	396.82M	382.48M	336.61M
	Operating Cash Flow
271.84M	366.45M	458.84M	396.82M	382.48M	336.61M
	Investing Cash Flow
3.12B	3.50B	1.44B	-3.25B	-5.63B	-88.25M
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.50B	-3.88B	-1.85B	2.61B	5.51B	-110.77M

Blackstone Mortgage Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price18.68

Price Trends

50DMA

19.12

Negative

100DMA

18.79

Negative

200DMA

18.11

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.05

Positive

RSI

44.04

Neutral

STOCH

26.06

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BXMT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.12, below the 50-day MA of 19.12, and above the 200-day MA of 18.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BXMT.

Blackstone Mortgage Risk Analysis

Blackstone Mortgage disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blackstone Mortgage reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

Our due diligence process for investment opportunities may not reveal all relevant information. Q4, 2024

Our investments in net leased commercial properties expose us to risks. Q4, 2024

The loss of, or changes in, our relationships with MTRCC, or of MTRCC's relationships with Freddie Mae or Freddie Mac, could adversely affect us. Q4, 2024

Blackstone Mortgage Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STWD	71 Outperform	$6.61B	20.46	4.90%	9.95%	-15.62%	-31.74%
LADR	71 Outperform	$1.35B	12.81	6.80%	9.04%	-12.51%	7.76%
ARI	66 Neutral	$1.33B	―	0.41%	11.53%	-14.98%	95.53%
ABR	64 Neutral	$1.92B	10.12	7.77%	18.94%	-15.99%	-36.34%
BXMT	63 Neutral	$3.32B	―	-2.06%	10.94%	-20.46%	-1436.71%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$2.75B	10.29	0.33%	8508.22%	5.95%	-17.48%
PMT	50 Neutral	$1.12B	13.86	6.36%	12.90%	-4.42%	-43.99%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BXMT

Blackstone Mortgage

18.68

3.15

20.28%

ARI

Apollo Real Estate

9.60

0.56

6.19%

ABR

Arbor Realty

8.92

-2.89

-24.47%

PMT

PennyMac Mortgage

12.31

0.27

2.24%

STWD

Starwood Property

19.46

2.30

13.40%

LADR

Ladder Capital

10.23

0.06

0.59%

Blackstone Mortgage Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -1.48%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

BXMT demonstrated strong progress in portfolio turnover, credit composition, and balance sheet strength, but faced challenges with GAAP net loss and timing mismatches impacting earnings. The firm is well-positioned for future opportunities, though impaired loans remain a concern.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Portfolio Turnover and New Investments

BXMT achieved $1.8 billion of repayments and $1.6 billion in new investments, marking the highest level of quarterly originations in over two years.

Improved Credit Composition

The portfolio is now 95% performing, up from 88%, with US office exposure reduced from nearly 40% to 21%, while multifamily, industrial, and self-storage comprise nearly half of the portfolio.

Successful Impaired Loan Resolutions

Resolved $1.5 billion of impaired assets over the past six months at a premium to carrying value, reducing impaired loan balance by 58% from the peak.

Robust Balance Sheet and Liquidity

Ended the quarter with $1.6 billion in liquidity and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.4 times, the lowest leverage level in three years.

Strategic Capital Markets Activity

Issued a $1 billion CLO with a 30-month reinvestment feature, locking in well-priced, non-recourse, non-mark-to-market financing.

Negative Updates

GAAP Net Loss

Reported a GAAP net loss of effectively $0.00 per share for the first quarter.

Timing Mismatch Affecting Earnings

The timing mismatch between repayments and new investments resulted in a nearly $1 billion lower average portfolio size, impacting distributable earnings.

Remaining Impaired Loans Burden

Impaired loans represent $970 million or 5% of the portfolio, continuing to burden earnings with $0.07 of interest expense in Q1.

Company Guidance

During the Blackstone Mortgage Trust First Quarter 2025 Investor Call, the company provided detailed guidance on its financial performance and strategic initiatives. They reported a GAAP net loss of effectively $0.00 and distributable earnings of $0.17 per share, with distributable earnings prior to charge-offs at $0.42 per share. The company paid a dividend of $0.47 per share for the first quarter. Key metrics highlighted included a $1.8 billion repayment and $1.6 billion new investments, with another $2 billion in closing in Q2. Their portfolio is 95% performing, up from 88%, and they have reduced office exposure from nearly 40% to 21%, while multifamily, industrial, and self-storage assets now comprise nearly half the portfolio. The resolution of $400 million in impaired loans contributed to a 58% reduction in impaired assets and a $64 million reversal in CECL reserves. The balance sheet is strong with $1.6 billion in liquidity and a 3.4 times debt-to-equity ratio, the lowest in three years. Blackstone issued a $1 billion CLO with a 30-month reinvestment feature, and they are actively capitalizing on investment opportunities across real estate credit markets globally, with the stock trading at about 10% below book value and offering a 10% dividend yield.

Blackstone Mortgage Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Blackstone Mortgage Appoints New CFO Amid Board Change

Neutral

Jan 3, 2025

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. has elected Marcin Urbaszek as the new Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer, bringing over 20 years of finance experience to the role. Additionally, Thomas E. Dobrowski has resigned from the Board of Directors after 26 years of service, leading to a reduction in board size from nine to eight members.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.