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Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT)
NYSE:BXMT
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Blackstone Mortgage
(NYSE:BXMT)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Capital Structure
BXMT issued a $1.0B CLO with a 30-month reinvestment feature, enhancing the capital structure.
International Business
The company has a strong international business, with credit performance remaining robust and no historical losses on international assets.
Strategic Growth
There is a strategic plan to increase origination volume and grow the portfolio, with a target of reaching $20 billion.
Negative Factors
Book Value
BVPS declined 2% to $21.42.
Earnings Outlook
Slightly lowering 25 EPS outlook, PO to $19.50 (from $20) due to the decline in BVPS and our lower 2025 earnings forecast.
Risk Assessment
Risk rating 4/5 loans are 23% of the total loan portfolio, down over the past few quarters.
Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.24B
Dividend Yield9.91%
Average Volume (3M)1.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth-19.20%
EPS Growth92.16%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength51
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding171,578,770
10 Day Avg. Volume959,142
30 Day Avg. Volume1,092,291
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.80
Price to Sales (P/S)6.13
P/FCF Ratio8.27
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue40.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit40.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.10K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.83Price Target Upside4.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
Blackstone Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate finance company that primarily focuses on originating and purchasing senior loans collateralized by commercial real estate in North America, Europe, and Australia. As a sector leader in real estate finance, BXMT is externally managed by a subsidiary of Blackstone, one of the world's leading investment firms. The company's core business involves providing customized and comprehensive financing solutions across various property types, including office, multifamily, industrial, and hospitality.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the interest income from its portfolio of senior loans secured by high-quality commercial real estate assets. The company originates loans for a broad range of property types, offering flexible financing solutions tailored to meet the needs of borrowers. Revenue is also derived from fees associated with loan origination, including commitment fees and syndication fees, which contribute to the company's earnings. BXMT's performance is closely tied to the health of the real estate markets in which it operates, as well as its ability to manage credit risk and interest rate fluctuations effectively. The company leverages its association with Blackstone, accessing its global network and expertise in real estate to enhance deal sourcing, underwriting, and asset management capabilities.
Blackstone Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -2.01%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong progress in portfolio turnover, credit composition improvements, and balance sheet optimization, indicating a positive trajectory for the company. Despite a GAAP net loss and timing mismatches affecting earnings, the overall sentiment remains optimistic due to strong efforts in impaired loan resolution and a positive economic return.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Portfolio Turnover and New Investments
BXMT achieved $1.8 billion in repayments and $1.6 billion in new investments, marking the highest level of quarterly originations in over two years. Additionally, $2 billion in loans are closed or in closing for Q2.
Improved Credit Composition
BXMT's portfolio is now 95% performing, up from 88% at the trough. U.S. office exposure decreased from nearly 40% to 21%, with multifamily, industrial, and self-storage comprising nearly half of the portfolio.
Balance Sheet Optimization
BXMT ended the quarter with $1.6 billion of liquidity and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.4 times, the lowest in three years. The issuance of a $1 billion CLO with a 30-month reinvestment feature enhanced the capital structure.
Positive Economic Shareholder Return
BXMT delivered a positive economic return for the second consecutive quarter, with a book value of $21.42 per share and a $0.47 per share dividend.
Significant Progress in Impaired Loan Resolution
Resolved $400 million of impaired assets this quarter, contributing to a $64 million reversal in CECL reserves. The impaired loan balance reduced by 58% from the peak.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Loss
BXMT reported a GAAP net loss of effectively $0.00 for the first quarter.
Timing Mismatch Impact on Earnings
A timing mismatch between repayments and subsequent capital redeployment led to a nearly $1 billion lower average portfolio size, impacting distributable earnings.
Remaining Impaired Loans
Impaired loans still represent $970 million, or 5% of the portfolio, burdened by $0.07 of interest expense in Q1.
Company Guidance
During Blackstone Mortgage Trust's first-quarter 2025 investor call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The firm reported a GAAP net loss of effectively $0.00 and distributable earnings of $0.17 per share, with distributable earnings prior to charge-offs at $0.42 per share. A significant focus was on portfolio turnover, with $1.8 billion in repayments and $1.6 billion in new investments, marking the highest level of quarterly originations in over two years. The portfolio's credit composition improved, with 95% performing assets and a reduced U.S. office exposure from nearly 40% to 21%. Additionally, the company addressed $400 million in impaired loan resolutions, contributing to a $64 million reversal in CECL reserves. The balance sheet remained robust with $1.6 billion in liquidity and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.4 times, the lowest in three years. The company also issued a $1 billion CLO with a 30-month reinvestment feature, enhancing its capital structure flexibility. Overall, Blackstone Mortgage Trust emphasized its strategic focus on minimizing credit risk, optimizing its balance sheet, and leveraging its global origination platform to capitalize on market opportunities.Blackstone Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall, Blackstone Mortgage demonstrates resilience in cash flow generation and a strong balance sheet with zero debt, positioning it well for future stability. However, the significant net income decline raises concerns about profitability and operational efficiency. The company should focus on improving income generation while maintaining its solid liquidity position.Income Statement
Blackstone Mortgage's income statement reveals a significant decline in net income, resulting in a negative net profit margin for the latest annual period. The gross profit margin remains solid at 100% due to the nature of its revenue recognition, but EBIT margins have decreased compared to prior years. Furthermore, the company experienced revenue growth from the previous year, but the net income deterioration poses concerns regarding profitability sustainability.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position, with a current debt-to-equity ratio of 0, as the company has cleared its debt, significantly improving from previous years. However, the return on equity has turned negative due to the substantial net loss. The equity ratio stands at approximately 19%, reflecting a moderately leveraged balance sheet, common in the REIT industry.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Blackstone Mortgage's cash flow statement highlights robust free cash flow generation despite the net loss, with a stable operating cash flow that exceeds net income, indicating good cash earnings quality. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, and cash reserves have increased significantly, suggesting improved liquidity and financial flexibility.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 484.81M | 493.18M | 670.66M | 628.05M | 514.47M | 432.18M |
| Gross Profit | 484.81M | 493.18M | 670.66M | 517.76M | 426.00M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | 3.82M | 1.10B | 0.00 | 962.55M | 419.62M | 137.99M |
| Net Income | -12.58M | -204.09M | 246.56M | 248.64M | 419.19M | 137.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.58B | 19.80B | 24.04B | 25.35B | 22.70B | 16.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 388.05M | 323.48M | 350.01M | 291.34M | 551.15M | 289.97M |
| Total Debt | 16.53B | 15.73B | 19.30B | 20.44B | 17.90B | 12.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.96B | 16.01B | 19.65B | 20.81B | 18.08B | 13.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.62B | 3.79B | 4.37B | 4.52B | 4.59B | 3.89B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 171.07M | 365.86M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M | 336.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 171.66M | 366.45M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M | 336.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.63B | 3.50B | 1.44B | -3.25B | -5.63B | -88.25M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.72B | -3.88B | -1.85B | 2.61B | 5.51B | -110.77M |
Blackstone Mortgage Technical Analysis
Positive
18.98
Price Trends
19.19
Negative
18.79
Positive
18.35
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.09
Negative
49.16
Neutral
38.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BXMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.95, below the 50-day MA of 19.19, and above the 200-day MA of 18.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BXMT.
Blackstone Mortgage Risk Analysis
Blackstone Mortgage disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blackstone Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blackstone Mortgage Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $2.21B | 13.01 | 7.09% | 12.58% | -17.43% | -37.71% | |
71 Outperform | $1.43B | 15.99 | 5.83% | 8.15% | -13.74% | -11.53% | |
69 Neutral | $7.29B | 18.25 | 5.73% | 9.58% | -15.07% | -1.00% | |
66 Neutral | $1.42B | ― | -0.35% | 9.74% | -26.29% | -342.06% | |
63 Neutral | $3.24B | ― | -0.33% | 9.91% | -19.20% | 92.16% | |
56 Neutral | $1.06B | 16.79 | 5.50% | 13.15% | 1.71% | -56.69% | |
53 Neutral | $1.23B | 2.70 | -5.89% | 5.63% | -2.28% | -110.71% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
18.98
3.02
18.92%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.27
1.19
13.11%
ABR
Arbor Realty
11.61
-0.08
-0.68%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
11.89
-0.23
-1.90%
STWD
Starwood Property
20.05
1.83
10.04%
LADR
Ladder Capital
11.29
0.42
3.86%
Blackstone Mortgage Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Blackstone Mortgage Appoints New CFO Amid Board Change
Neutral
Jan 3, 2025
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. has elected Marcin Urbaszek as the new Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer, bringing over 20 years of finance experience to the role. Additionally, Thomas E. Dobrowski has resigned from the Board of Directors after 26 years of service, leading to a reduction in board size from nine to eight members.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.