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Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT)
NYSE:BXMT
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Blackstone Mortgage
(NYSE:BXMT)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▲(3.36% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker financial statement quality (earnings volatility, historically high leverage, and the sharp 2025 cash-flow deterioration in the provided data). This is partly offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook highlighting improved portfolio performance and funding, while technicals are neutral and valuation is mixed (high yield but high P/E).
Positive Factors
Global origination platform
BXMT's scale across origination and trading (US, Europe, Australia) creates a durable proprietary pipeline. Broad deal flow supports diversified underwriting, repeatable fee and interest income, and competitive access to pricing—reducing reliance on any single market and aiding consistent deployment over months.
Stronger funding execution
Active liability management (CLO/CMBS issuance, term loan repricings, expanded counterparties, no maturities until 2027) meaningfully extends duration and lowered funding costs. This durable funding improvement reduces rollover risk and supports sustained net interest margins versus earlier tighter funding windows.
Improved credit metrics
Substantial reductions in impaired loans and falling CECL reserves increase visibility on future cash flows and lower expected credit losses. Improved portfolio performance supports more stable distributable earnings and makes dividend coverage and capital redeployment decisions less contingent on near-term loan resolutions.
Negative Factors
Elevated historical leverage
Sustained leverage at multi‑times equity increases sensitivity to CRE valuation moves and funding shocks. For a mortgage REIT, high leverage amplifies earnings swings from spread compression or credit losses, limits balance‑sheet flexibility, and raises refinancing risk if markets tighten again.
Earnings & cash-flow volatility
Wide swings in GAAP and distributable earnings—driven by reserve charge‑offs and realizations—undermine predictability of cash generation. A reported sharp deterioration in operating/FCF in 2025 complicates dividend sustainability and capital allocation planning over the coming quarters.
Held-asset write-offs & discounts
Significant write‑offs, subordinate losses and large discounts on held real estate mean some assets will generate below‑target ROE until sold. Realizing value requires successful dispositions at uncertain prices, creating execution risk that can depress returns and restrict redeployment timing.
Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.27B
Dividend Yield9.32%
Average Volume (3M)1.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.9
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth-18.22%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.07
Shares Outstanding168,738,650
10 Day Avg. Volume1,407,387
30 Day Avg. Volume1,389,568
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)2.15
P/FCF Ratio11.86
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.82
Enterprise Value/Revenue27.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit33.23
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.50Price Target Upside11.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$487.41M
Blackstone Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates senior loans collateralized by commercial properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. The company operates as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to U.S. federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as Capital Trust, Inc. and changed its name to Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. in May 2013. Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the interest income from its portfolio of senior loans secured by high-quality commercial real estate assets. The company originates loans for a broad range of property types, offering flexible financing solutions tailored to meet the needs of borrowers. Revenue is also derived from fees associated with loan origination, including commitment fees and syndication fees, which contribute to the company's earnings. BXMT's performance is closely tied to the health of the real estate markets in which it operates, as well as its ability to manage credit risk and interest rate fluctuations effectively. The company leverages its association with Blackstone, accessing its global network and expertise in real estate to enhance deal sourcing, underwriting, and asset management capabilities.
Blackstone Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful progress on credit performance, active capital markets execution, diversified deal origination and a clear strategy to redeploy capital—supported by strong liquidity and funding improvements. However, significant Q4 reserve charge-offs and related DE volatility highlight execution and earnings risks in the near term, and some held REO and subordinated losses will weigh on short-term performance. On balance, the positives around a 99% performing portfolio, improved funding costs, strong origination/trading volumes, active deployment and shareholder returns outweigh the quarter's charge-off–driven weakness.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Operating Performance and Credit Improvement
Loan portfolio 99% performing by year-end; resolved $575 million of impaired loans in Q4, reducing impaired loan balance to just under $90 million; upgraded six loans in Q4; no new impaired loans or watchlist additions in Q4.
Recovering Earnings Power
Distributable earnings (DE) prior to charge-offs of $0.51 per share in Q4, covering the $0.47 quarterly dividend for the second consecutive quarter and up over 20% versus Q1 2025.
Active Capital Deployment and Portfolio Growth
Closed approximately $7 billion of investments in 2025 (≈85% in multifamily, industrial, net lease and bank loan portfolios); investment portfolio grew to $20 billion (from $19.5 billion prior quarter) including $18 billion loan portfolio, $1.3 billion owned real estate and ~$900 million at-share in bank loan/net lease JV positions.
Large Origination and Trading Volume via Global Platform
Global real estate debt platform closed over $20 billion of private loan originations and acquisitions and traded more than $15 billion of real estate securities in 2025, supporting a broad proprietary pipeline across US, Europe and Australia.
Capital Markets and Funding Execution
Executed over $5 billion of corporate and securitized debt transactions in past 12 months (including $2.8 billion of corporate term loan repricings/extensions), which reduced weighted average borrowing spread by nearly 90 basis points year over year and extended liability duration.
Improving Market Liquidity and Origination Demand
CMBS issuance rose ~40% year-over-year in 2025 to its highest level since the GFC; new loan requests in January were up ~50% year-over-year, indicating renewed transaction activity and deal flow.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation
Delivered a 21% total return to shareholders in 2025; repurchased approximately $140 million of stock since program inception in July 2024 (including $60 million this quarter); book value ended year at $20.75 per share, with buybacks contributing ~$0.30 per share in 2025.
Improved Reserve and Book Value Dynamics
Total CECL reserves decreased nearly 60% quarter-over-quarter following charge-offs; book value benefited from a net $33 million CECL recovery from above-carrying-value resolutions and includes $0.47 per share accumulated D&A and $1.76 per share total CECL reserves.
Liquidity, Funding Diversity and Balance Sheet Strength
Ended year with $1 billion of liquidity, debt-to-equity within target range, weighted average corporate debt maturity of 4.3 years with no maturities until 2027; executed a $1 billion CLO in January and inaugural European CMBS issuance in December; borrowing counterparties expanded to 15 providing ~$19 billion capacity; non-mark-to-market borrowings increased to ~85% from 67%.
Strategic Portfolio Diversification
Net lease and acquired bank loans now represent ~5% of portfolio (from 0% at start of 2025); net lease portfolio >$300 million at share with another ~$200 million closing; bank loan purchases (~$600 million at BXMT share) have generated ~$80 million of repayments since acquisition.
Negative Updates
Large Reserve Charge-Offs Dragging Distributable Earnings
Q4 DE was negative $2.07 per share, driven by $434 million of reserve charge-offs related to resolution of five impaired loans and write-off of three subordinate loans (previously impaired and carried to zero).
Realized Write-Offs and Subordinate Losses
Three subordinate loans were written off in Q4 (carried effectively to zero), contributing materially to the quarter's charge-offs and causing pronounced volatility in GAAP and DE measures for the period.
Owned Real Estate Earnings Seasonality and Discounts
Owned real estate portfolio of $1.3 billion (12 properties, one-third hotels) generated $18 million NOI in Q4 but is expected to have seasonally lower cash flows in Q1; assets are carried at a ~50% discount to origination values, indicating partly unrealized recoveries and below-target ROE until exits occur.
Residual Exposure to Challenged Sectors
Although office exposure is down ~50% since year-end 2021 and further repayments ($300M+) have occurred in Q1, the company still holds some office-related watchlist/REO assets (e.g., San Francisco hotel expected to be taken in Q1) that require ongoing management and potential capital.
Earnings Volatility from Credit Resolutions
Significant one-time CECL charge-offs and subsequent reserve movements produced volatility in distributable earnings (DE swung negative for the quarter), demonstrating near-term sensitivity of earnings to loan resolutions.
Spread Compression and Competitive Pressure
Management noted spreads in liquid real estate credit and broader credit markets have tightened (triple-B CMBS and high-yield spreads within 10–20% of all-time tights), which can pressure new lending spreads and margin relative to the higher spreads available earlier in the cycle.
Below-Target ROE on Some Held Assets Pending Disposition
Certain REO and other held assets are generating below-target ROE until sold or redeployed; management expects to sell some assets this year but timing and proceeds remain execution risks.
Company Guidance
Management's guidance was cautiously constructive: they expect continued portfolio improvement and selective capital deployment—plans include selectively exiting owned real estate to redeploy capital and remaining patient on timing—backed by Q4 and FY25 metrics: GAAP net income $0.24/sh, distributable earnings (DE) -$2.07/sh (DE prior to charge‑offs $0.51/sh) which covered the $0.47 dividend for the second consecutive quarter, book value $20.75/sh, dividend yield 9.5% (540 bps spread to the 10‑yr Treasury), liquidity $1.0B, weighted‑average corporate debt maturities 4.3 years with no maturities until 2027, non‑mark‑to‑market borrowings nearly 85%, $1.5B of investments closed in Q4 and ~ $7B in 2025 (≈85% in multifamily/industrial/net‑lease/bank‑loan portfolios), total investment portfolio ~$20B (including an $18B loan portfolio and $1.3B owned real estate across 12 properties generating $18M NOI in Q4), loan portfolio 99% performing after resolving $575M of impaired loans (impaired balance < $90M), repaid >$300M of office loans in Q1 to date, closed a $1B CLO in January and inaugural European CMBS in December, while continuing capital returns (≈$60M repurchased this quarter, ≈$140M since July 2024) and pursuing additional portfolio and financing opportunities as markets normalize (CMBS issuance +40% YoY, new loan requests +50% YoY in January).Blackstone Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income performance is uneven (2024 loss followed by a 2025 return to profitability), leverage was elevated in 2021–2024 (a key mortgage-REIT risk), and cash flow quality weakens materially in the provided 2025 figures (operating/FCF shown as zero). These factors outweigh the earnings rebound.Income Statement
Revenue has been volatile: a sharp rebound in 2025 (annual revenue up ~34%) followed a very strong 2024 revenue base, but the pattern over 2020–2025 is uneven. Profitability is also inconsistent—2024 posted a net loss (negative margin), while 2025 returned to profitability (~20% net margin). Earlier years show healthy net margins, but the swing to a loss in 2024 highlights earnings sensitivity and reduces overall earnings quality/stability.56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears elevated in the historical periods shown (debt running at ~4.0–4.5x equity from 2021–2024), which is a key risk factor for a mortgage REIT in stressed credit or funding conditions. Equity and assets have trended down from 2022–2024, and returns on equity turned negative in 2024 before recovering modestly in 2025. While 2025 shows zero debt in the dataset, this is a sharp break from prior years and should be viewed cautiously when assessing balance-sheet risk based solely on the provided figures.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation was solid and generally consistent from 2020–2024, with free cash flow closely tracking net income in most years and operating cash flow remaining positive even in 2024. However, 2025 shows operating and free cash flow at zero with a -100% free cash flow growth rate versus the prior year in the provided data, representing a major deterioration and raising questions about cash earnings conversion and near-term cash availability.42
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.52B | 1.77B | 670.66M | 628.05M | 514.47M |
| Gross Profit | 1.17B | 1.66B | 670.66M | 628.05M | 426.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.17B | 1.10B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 419.62M |
| Net Income | 109.57M | -204.09M | 246.56M | 248.64M | 419.19M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 20.00B | 19.80B | 24.04B | 25.35B | 22.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 452.53M | 323.48M | 350.01M | 291.34M | 551.15M |
| Total Debt | 16.18B | 15.73B | 19.30B | 20.44B | 17.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.50B | 16.01B | 19.65B | 20.81B | 18.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.50B | 3.79B | 4.37B | 4.52B | 4.59B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 275.87M | 365.86M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 275.87M | 366.45M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 359.40M | 3.50B | 1.44B | -3.25B | -5.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -514.42M | -3.88B | -1.85B | 2.61B | 5.51B |
Blackstone Mortgage Technical Analysis
Neutral
19.35
Price Trends
19.60
Negative
19.13
Positive
18.88
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
47.52
Neutral
19.25
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BXMT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 19.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.54, below the 50-day MA of 19.60, and above the 200-day MA of 18.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.25 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BXMT.
Blackstone Mortgage Risk Analysis
Blackstone Mortgage disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blackstone Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blackstone Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | $720.59M | 14.05 | 5.25% | 13.31% | -0.93% | -1.92% | |
60 Neutral | $1.49B | 12.97 | 6.66% | 9.89% | 0.29% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $662.09M | 14.76 | 5.32% | 10.48% | -10.86% | -5.90% | |
55 Neutral | $3.27B | 29.90 | 3.01% | 9.32% | -18.22% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $1.31B | 20.37 | 4.25% | 8.21% | -17.18% | -17.16% | |
49 Neutral | $437.83M | -6.47 | -3.86% | 11.33% | -24.37% | -19.19% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
19.35
0.26
1.34%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.64
1.33
14.33%
LADR
Ladder Capital
10.30
-0.66
-5.99%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
6.77
-3.58
-34.59%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
8.36
0.82
10.88%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
8.83
-3.25
-26.89%
Blackstone Mortgage Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Names New Chief Financial Officer
Neutral
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Blackstone Mortgage Trust appointed its Deputy Chief Financial Officer, Marcin Urbaszek, as Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary, following Board approval on February 8, 2026. Urbaszek, who joined Blackstone in 2024 and previously held senior finance roles at Granite Point Mortgage Trust, brings over two decades of corporate finance and strategic advisory experience, including more than 15 years focused on financial institutions.
His promotion coincides with the resignation of Anthony F. Marone, Jr. from the same officer roles, effective at the close of business on February 11, 2026, so that Marone can concentrate on his responsibilities as Global Head of Blackstone Real Estate Finance. The company emphasized that Marone’s resignation did not stem from any disagreement over operations or policies, and noted there are no special arrangements, family relationships or related-party transactions associated with Urbaszek’s selection, underscoring a routine leadership transition in its finance function.
The most recent analyst rating on (BXMT) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blackstone Mortgage stock, see the BXMT Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.