Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT)
NYSE:BXMT
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Blackstone Mortgage
(NYSE:BXMT)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▼(-6.03% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/07/26
Overall score reflects balance-sheet and cash-flow risk (high leverage and weakening cash generation) as the biggest constraint, partially offset by a constructive earnings-call backdrop around liquidity/dividend coverage and a very high dividend yield. Technical indicators remain weak-to-neutral, limiting near-term confidence.
Positive Factors
Strong origination activity & pipeline
Sustained origination volume and a >$1B forward pipeline show the firm can redeploy capital into higher-yielding loans. Over 2-6 months this supports recurring interest income, scales earnings power, and demonstrates continued access to deal flow via Blackstone’s platform.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Leverage near four times equity increases sensitivity to credit losses and funding stress. High indebtedness amplifies earnings volatility, constrains capital allocation flexibility and raises the risk that adverse CRE cycles or higher funding costs materially pressure dividends and book value.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong origination activity & pipeline
Sustained origination volume and a >$1B forward pipeline show the firm can redeploy capital into higher-yielding loans. Over 2-6 months this supports recurring interest income, scales earnings power, and demonstrates continued access to deal flow via Blackstone’s platform.
Read all positive factors
Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.23B
Dividend Yield9.32%
Average Volume (3M)1.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth-7.20%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.60
Shares Outstanding168,683,520
10 Day Avg. Volume1,434,787
30 Day Avg. Volume1,531,001
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)2.15
P/FCF Ratio11.86
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.20Price Target Upside4.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$370.00M
Blackstone Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates senior loans collateralized by commercial properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. The company operates as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax ...
How the Company Makes Money
BXMT makes money primarily from net interest income generated by its lending business. Its core revenue stream is interest income earned on the commercial mortgage loans it originates and holds, which are typically floating-rate senior loans; this...
Blackstone Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflects a generally positive operational and capital markets position: the company demonstrated continued dividend coverage, strong capital markets execution, significant growth in net lease exposure, attractive new-investment returns (900 bps over base rates), robust liquidity ($1B) and a healthy performing loan mix (98% performing). Offsetting these positives are modest GAAP losses driven by a specific hotel foreclosure and realized loss ($46M), a $55M CECL build that reduced book value by 2.7%, two newly impaired loans and some watch-list office exposure, as well as the continued need to resolve owned real estate assets over time. Overall, the company appears to be transitioning assets, redeploying capital into higher-yielding originations and managing balance sheet liquidity effectively, while credit-specific and legacy asset issues remain manageable but notable.Positive Updates
Dividend Coverage and Attractive Yield
Distributable earnings prior to realized gains and losses of $0.49 per share covered the $0.47 per share dividend for the third consecutive quarter; company highlights an approximate current yield of ~9.5% for investors.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Loss and Realized Losses
Reported GAAP net loss of $0.04 per share for the quarter; DE included $46 million of realized losses related to the resolution and foreclosure of an impaired San Francisco hotel loan, which was moved to owned real estate.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Dividend Coverage and Attractive Yield
Distributable earnings prior to realized gains and losses of $0.49 per share covered the $0.47 per share dividend for the third consecutive quarter; company highlights an approximate current yield of ~9.5% for investors.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that BXMT’s earnings and capital position remain strong: GAAP net loss was $0.04/sh and distributable earnings (DE) were $0.21/sh (DE prior to realized gains/losses $0.49/sh), covering the $0.47/sh Q1 dividend for the third consecutive quarter and supporting an approximate current yield of ~9.5%; book value ended at $20.20/sh (down 2.7%), with total CECL reserves of $1.80/sh (general reserve $1.30/sh) and a $0.33/sh CECL increase this quarter. The investment portfolio is just under $20B, with a $16.4B loan portfolio across 130 loans that is 98% performing; Q1 closed $540M of new investments (including $275M of originations at a 68% weighted average LTV), gross loan originations exceeded $800M, and the pipeline for Q2 is >$1B (with ~$120M of net-lease closings in process). Net-lease at-share totals $516M (260 assets, ~$2M avg price, 3x rent coverage, 2% escalators, >15-year avg lease), owned real estate generated $14M NOI (≈3.5% annualized yield ex a $3M tax refund, ~250–300 bps below new originations), and investments this quarter produced levered returns of ~900 bps over base rates. Capitalization metrics: $1B liquidity, debt/equity 3.7x (from 3.9x), 4 years weighted average remaining term on corporate debt with no maturities until 2027; executed ~$700M corporate refinancing (‑50 bps), issued a $1B reinvesting CLO and $1.3B of securitized debt, and now have ~86% of total debt in non‑mark‑to‑market borrowings — all supporting continued redeployments and selective, patient REO dispositions.Blackstone Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.54B | 1.52B | 1.77B | 2.01B | 1.32B | 847.73M |
| Gross Profit | 960.53M | 1.17B | 1.65B | 1.89B | 1.21B | 759.26M |
| EBITDA | 957.49M | 1.17B | 1.10B | 1.62B | 965.06M | 756.00M |
| Net Income | 103.63M | 109.57M | -204.09M | 246.56M | 248.64M | 419.19M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.63B | 20.00B | 19.80B | 24.04B | 25.35B | 22.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 549.15M | 452.53M | 323.48M | 350.01M | 291.34M | 551.15M |
| Total Debt | 15.89B | 16.16B | 15.73B | 19.30B | 20.44B | 17.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.21B | 16.50B | 16.01B | 19.65B | 20.81B | 18.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.41B | 3.50B | 3.79B | 4.37B | 4.52B | 4.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 334.55M | 275.87M | 365.86M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 345.08M | 275.87M | 366.45M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 319.29M | 359.40M | 3.50B | 1.44B | -3.25B | -5.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -789.13M | -514.42M | -3.88B | -1.85B | 2.61B | 5.51B |
Blackstone Mortgage Technical Analysis
Positive
20.22
Price Trends
18.92
Positive
18.90
Positive
18.33
Positive
Market Momentum
0.36
Negative
65.15
Neutral
86.13
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BXMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.03, above the 50-day MA of 18.92, and above the 200-day MA of 18.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.13 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BXMT.
Blackstone Mortgage Risk Analysis
Blackstone Mortgage disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blackstone Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blackstone Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $657.12M | 8.07 | 6.09% | 10.48% | 0.84% | -8.55% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $1.45B | 14.00 | 6.88% | 9.89% | 3.09% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $695.75M | 14.16 | 5.60% | 13.31% | 5.47% | -22.89% | |
60 Neutral | $1.31B | 117.58 | 3.71% | 8.21% | -12.74% | -46.71% | |
52 Neutral | $3.23B | -128.55 | 2.94% | 9.32% | -7.20% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $425.70M | -1.76 | -8.30% | 11.33% | -20.03% | -1249.19% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
19.15
1.96
11.43%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.91
2.23
25.76%
LADR
Ladder Capital
10.26
0.70
7.33%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
6.58
-1.53
-18.84%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
8.50
1.66
24.32%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
9.04
-0.95
-9.51%
Blackstone Mortgage Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Announces $450 Million Secured Notes Offering
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. entered into a purchase agreement to issue $450 million of 6.250% senior secured notes due June 1, 2031 in a private offering to qualified institutional buyers and certain non-U.S. investors. The not...
Executive/Board Changes
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Names New Chief Financial Officer
Neutral
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Blackstone Mortgage Trust appointed its Deputy Chief Financial Officer, Marcin Urbaszek, as Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary, following Board approval on February 8, 2026. Urbaszek, who joined Blacks...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.