Apollo Commercial Real Estate (ARI)
NYSE:ARI
Top Page
Apollo Real Estate
(NYSE:ARI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(4.27% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26
The score is driven primarily by uneven financial performance (volatile earnings quality and leverage sensitivity), partially offset by supportive cash generation. Technicals are moderately positive with price above key moving averages and constructive momentum. Valuation is helped by a moderate P/E and high dividend yield, while the earnings call adds optimism from improved credit/origination metrics but is tempered by execution needs and uncertainty around post-transaction strategy and future dividends.
Positive Factors
Loan Origination & Portfolio Growth
Sustained, large-scale origination and a growing loan book expand ARI's interest-earning base and diversify borrower exposure. Over 2–6 months this scale supports distributable earnings, creates fee and pricing leverage with lenders, and improves ability to redeploy capital or monetize at scale.
Negative Factors
High leverage sensitivity
Historically elevated leverage (debt-to-equity around 2.6–3.4x) magnifies earnings volatility and increases funding fragility. Structurally, this level of leverage tightens covenant and liquidity buffers, making ARI more vulnerable to spread widening or refinancing stress and constraining strategic flexibility over several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loan Origination & Portfolio Growth
Sustained, large-scale origination and a growing loan book expand ARI's interest-earning base and diversify borrower exposure. Over 2–6 months this scale supports distributable earnings, creates fee and pricing leverage with lenders, and improves ability to redeploy capital or monetize at scale.
Read all positive factors
Apollo Real Estate (ARI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.47B
Dividend Yield9.89%
Average Volume (3M)1.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.6
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth0.29%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding139,598,980
10 Day Avg. Volume1,814,813
30 Day Avg. Volume1,412,332
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio31.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.75Price Target Upside11.37% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$277.41M
Apollo Real Estate Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt...
How the Company Makes Money
Apollo Real Estate generates revenue primarily through rental income from its properties, which includes lease agreements with tenants across its portfolio. Additionally, the company earns income from property sales and development projects, where...
Apollo Real Estate Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balance of positive operating and credit metrics—strong origination activity, portfolio growth, stable book value, reduced nonaccrual exposure, and added financing capacity—alongside notable uncertainties: a market valuation discount to book, modest immediate liquidity relative to the balance sheet, operational work required to stabilize retained REO (including fire recovery), and unanswered questions about long-term strategic direction and capital return mechanics. On net the company displays healthy underlying fundamentals but faces near-term execution and market-perception risks tied to the portfolio sale and strategic decisions.Positive Updates
Distributable Earnings and GAAP Results
Q4 distributable earnings of $37 million ($0.26 per diluted share); full year distributable earnings of $139 million ($0.98 per diluted share). GAAP net income available to common was $26 million ($0.18 per diluted share) for Q4 and $114 million ($0.81 per diluted share) for the full year.
Negative Updates
Market Valuation Discount and Strategic Uncertainty
Management noted investor interest in the announced sale and value-unlocking effort, but the stock was trading between ~$10.70 and $10.80 versus book value reported at $12+; investors seeking clarity on post-sale strategy (dissolution vs continuing operating vehicle) which contributes to the valuation gap.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Distributable Earnings and GAAP Results
Q4 distributable earnings of $37 million ($0.26 per diluted share); full year distributable earnings of $139 million ($0.98 per diluted share). GAAP net income available to common was $26 million ($0.18 per diluted share) for Q4 and $114 million ($0.81 per diluted share) for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that ARI expects stabilization of The Brook later this year (591 units, ~56% leased market-rate, retail 88% leased, leasing momentum ~20–40 units/month, retail occupancy expected next year) while evaluating adjacent land to unlock value; the Mayflower should see a notable pickup in net cash flow within ~12 months from cost-savings initiatives; the Cortland Grand is receiving value-add upgrades to drive group business in 2026 while insurance proceeds are being pursued following an Oct‑2025 fire. They reiterated a plan to pay a Q1 dividend of $0.25 per share (subject to board approval) and expressed a desire to continue dividends thereafter, though future distributions will depend on capital deployment decisions (including dissolution as a possible path). Underpinning this guidance, ARI reported Q4 distributable earnings of $37M ($0.26/diluted share) and FY distributable earnings of $139M ($0.98/share), GAAP net income of $26M Q4 ($0.18/share) and $114M FY ($0.81/share); the loan portfolio totaled ~$8.8B amortized cost (up ~ $1.6B YoY) with a 7.3% weighted average unlevered all‑in yield, ~59% weighted avg LTV, 99% first mortgages, 96% floating exposure, >60% post‑2022 originations, total CECL $383M (418 bps of portfolio, down from 450.7 bps), total liquidity $151M and >$430M of unencumbered assets, and ARI added ~$1.8B of net financing capacity in 2025.Apollo Real Estate Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 710.49M | 701.53M | 777.00M | 641.34M | 421.23M |
| Gross Profit | 568.76M | 560.39M | 649.77M | 549.15M | 357.85M |
| EBITDA | 598.31M | 396.38M | 532.93M | 536.46M | 388.68M |
| Net Income | 126.72M | -119.64M | 58.13M | 265.23M | 223.51M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.90B | 8.41B | 9.30B | 9.57B | 8.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 139.82M | 317.40M | 225.44M | 222.03M | 343.11M |
| Total Debt | 7.92B | 6.39B | 6.95B | 6.97B | 6.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.04B | 6.54B | 7.09B | 7.21B | 6.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.86B | 1.87B | 2.21B | 2.35B | 2.29B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 42.31M | 30.75M | 201.23M | 234.67M | 199.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 142.52M | 200.26M | 273.86M | 267.70M | 199.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.39B | 577.17M | 68.42M | -1.34B | -1.36B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.06B | -689.31M | -343.36M | 957.97M | 1.18B |
Apollo Real Estate Technical Analysis
Positive
10.55
Price Trends
10.32
Positive
9.94
Positive
9.69
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
58.06
Neutral
71.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.26, above the 50-day MA of 10.32, and above the 200-day MA of 9.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARI.
Apollo Real Estate Risk Analysis
Apollo Real Estate disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Apollo Real Estate reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Apollo Real Estate Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $2.61B | 2.95 | 17.19% | 14.63% | 47.97% | 17.22% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $1.47B | 10.61 | 6.83% | 9.89% | 0.29% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $2.07B | 2.34 | 16.65% | 15.06% | -27.55% | -97.87% | |
55 Neutral | $1.04B | 8.54 | 6.79% | 12.69% | -15.48% | -36.45% | |
54 Neutral | $1.24B | 21.49 | 4.28% | 8.21% | -17.18% | -17.16% | |
53 Neutral | $1.09B | 4.43 | 8.85% | 11.40% | 9.46% | -111.44% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.48
3.26
45.17%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
17.19
5.15
42.75%
CIM
Chimera Investment
12.93
3.64
39.26%
DX
Dynex Capital
12.69
2.86
29.09%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
11.78
0.61
5.45%
LADR
Ladder Capital
9.71
0.53
5.74%
Apollo Real Estate Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Apollo Commercial REIT to Sell $9 Billion Loan Portfolio
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 27–28, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. entered into a definitive agreement to sell its approximately $9 billion commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene Holding Ltd. for a price based on 99.7% of total loa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.