Apollo Real Estate (ARI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.37B
• Dividend Yield: 10.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 868.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: 0.29%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.30
• Shares Outstanding: 138,943,830
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 850,843
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 868,142
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 39.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.55
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 62.86
• 1Y Price Target: $10.56
• Price Target Upside: 6.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.97
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $228.65M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(6.28% Upside)

Apollo Real Estate's strong financial performance and high dividend yield are key strengths, supporting a solid stock score. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and high leverage poses financial risks. The optimistic earnings call outlook provides a positive counterbalance, highlighting potential for future growth.

Positive Factors

Strong Loan Origination

The ability to originate $1 billion in new loans demonstrates ARI's strong market position and capacity to deploy capital effectively, which is crucial for sustained revenue growth and competitive advantage in the real estate sector.

Robust Cash Flow

Strong free cash flow growth indicates efficient cash generation, enhancing liquidity and financial flexibility, which are vital for long-term operational stability and investment opportunities.

Improved Profit Margins

The significant improvement in net profit margins reflects effective cost management and operational efficiency, supporting sustainable profitability and shareholder value over the long term.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

The high leverage indicates a heavy reliance on debt financing, which could pose financial risks and limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities, affecting long-term financial stability.

Distributable Earnings Below Dividend

Earnings falling below the dividend level suggests potential challenges in maintaining dividend payouts, which could impact investor confidence and the company's ability to sustain its dividend policy.

Challenges with Liberty Center Asset

Bankruptcy proceedings related to Liberty Center pose challenges in asset management and sales processes, potentially affecting asset valuation and financial performance in the long term.

Apollo Real Estate Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Apollo Real Estate (ARI) is a leading real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on acquiring, managing, and developing a diverse portfolio of real estate properties across various sectors, including residential, commercial, and industrial. The company aims to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for its investors through strategic investments and effective asset management.

How the Company Makes Money

Apollo Real Estate generates revenue primarily through rental income from its properties, which includes lease agreements with tenants across its portfolio. Additionally, the company earns income from property sales and development projects, where it capitalizes on appreciation and value-add strategies. Key revenue streams also include management fees from investment funds and partnerships, as well as performance fees tied to the profitability of its investments. Significant partnerships with institutional investors and real estate developers further enhance its earnings potential by enabling access to larger capital pools and collaborative development opportunities.

Apollo Real Estate Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Apollo Real Estate shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability with a significant turnaround in net profit margins. However, high leverage poses financial risks, and there is room for improvement in operational efficiency. The cash flow position is strong, with significant free cash flow growth, supporting liquidity and financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Apollo Real Estate shows a strong gross profit margin of 82.59% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved to 19.10% TTM from a negative margin in the previous year, reflecting a significant turnaround in profitability. Revenue growth rate is robust at 14.28% TTM, showcasing strong top-line growth. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively lower, suggesting room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.04 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is modest at 7.43% TTM, showing moderate profitability on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is low, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing, which could impact financial stability.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow growth is impressive at 169.59% TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.21, suggesting that operating cash flows are covering net income adequately. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.75, highlighting efficient cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	723.28M	701.53M	777.00M	641.34M	421.23M	342.84M
Gross Profit	597.37M	572.06M	658.02M	268.89M	360.50M	303.09M
EBITDA	138.30M	-634.86M	0.00	650.37M	417.10M	138.75M
Net Income	138.17M	-119.64M	58.13M	265.23M	223.51M	18.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.52B	8.41B	9.30B	9.57B	8.42B	6.94B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	245.86M	317.40M	225.44M	222.03M	343.11M	325.50M
Total Debt	7.52B	6.39B	6.95B	6.97B	6.01B	4.52B
Total Liabilities	7.66B	6.54B	7.09B	7.21B	6.12B	4.67B
Stockholders Equity	1.86B	1.87B	2.21B	2.35B	2.29B	2.27B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	137.98M	30.75M	201.23M	234.67M	199.25M	164.05M
Operating Cash Flow	184.21M	200.26M	273.86M	267.70M	199.38M	164.05M
Investing Cash Flow	-354.96M	577.17M	68.42M	-1.34B	-1.36B	-215.72M
Financing Cash Flow	218.45M	-689.31M	-343.36M	957.97M	1.18B	-75.12M

Apollo Real Estate Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 9.88
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.00, below the 50-day MA of 10.12, and above the 200-day MA of 9.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ARI.

Apollo Real Estate Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LADR	71 Outperform	$1.36B	16.93	5.26%	8.60%	-17.18%	-17.16%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ARI	64 Neutral	$1.37B	11.15	7.26%	10.12%	0.29%	―
CIM	63 Neutral	$1.00B	―	2.10%	12.30%	9.46%	-111.44%
DX	60 Neutral	$2.00B	9.18	11.92%	14.42%	47.97%	17.22%
ARR	58 Neutral	$1.87B	360.48	3.75%	17.26%	-27.55%	-97.87%
PMT	58 Neutral	$1.08B	13.60	6.37%	12.84%	-15.48%	-36.45%

Apollo Real Estate Corporate Events

Apollo Commercial Real Estate’s Optimistic Earnings Call

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance’s recent earnings call conveyed a generally optimistic sentiment, despite some challenges. The company highlighted its strong loan origination activity and liquidity, with significant progress on asset sales and litigation settlements. However, issues with certain assets, such as Liberty Center, and run rate distributable earnings falling below the dividend level were noted. Nevertheless, the call maintained an optimistic tone regarding future asset monetization and capital redeployment.