Apollo Real Estate (ARI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.47B
• Dividend Yield: 9.89%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: 0.29%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 139,598,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,075,525
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,304,411
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.89
• P/FCF Ratio: 31.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 13.04
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.28
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.48
• 1Y Price Target: $11.75
• Price Target Upside: 10.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $286.35M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(3.48% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/11/26

The score is driven primarily by uneven financial performance (volatile earnings quality and leverage sensitivity), partially offset by supportive cash generation. Technicals are moderately positive with price above key moving averages and constructive momentum. Valuation is helped by a moderate P/E and high dividend yield, while the earnings call adds optimism from improved credit/origination metrics but is tempered by execution needs and uncertainty around post-transaction strategy and future dividends.

Positive Factors

Loan Origination & Portfolio Growth

Sustained, large-scale origination and a growing loan book expand ARI's interest-earning base and diversify borrower exposure. Over 2–6 months this scale supports distributable earnings, creates fee and pricing leverage with lenders, and improves ability to redeploy capital or monetize at scale.

Senior-secured, floating-rate portfolio

A portfolio concentrated in senior first mortgages with high floating-rate exposure structurally protects margin as reference rates move and reduces loss severity through priority collateral claims. Moderate LTVs (~59%) further limit downside, supporting more durable cash flows and recovery prospects across economic cycles.

Portfolio sale & capital recap

The strategic sale materially de-leverages and converts illiquid loans into substantial net cash and equity, creating a well-capitalized platform. This structural recap provides runway to redeploy capital, pursue M&A, or effect orderly dissolution, while revised manager fees better align future returns with shareholder equity.

Negative Factors

High leverage sensitivity

Historically elevated leverage (debt-to-equity around 2.6–3.4x) magnifies earnings volatility and increases funding fragility. Structurally, this level of leverage tightens covenant and liquidity buffers, making ARI more vulnerable to spread widening or refinancing stress and constraining strategic flexibility over several quarters.

Volatile earnings quality

Material swings in revenue and profitability, including negative EBITDA periods, impair predictability of distributable cash and dividend coverage. Persistently volatile earnings necessitate larger reserves and complicate multi-quarter capital allocation, weakening investor confidence in sustainable payout mechanics.

Limited liquidity & REO execution needs

Modest cash on hand (~$151M) versus a large loan book means near-term flexibility depends on monetizations or new financing. Retained REO also requires leasing, repairs, and insurance work—operational demands that can consume capital and delay realizations, pressuring cash generation through upcoming quarters.

Apollo Real Estate Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Apollo Real Estate generates revenue primarily through rental income from its properties, which includes lease agreements with tenants across its portfolio. Additionally, the company earns income from property sales and development projects, where it capitalizes on appreciation and value-add strategies. Key revenue streams also include management fees from investment funds and partnerships, as well as performance fees tied to the profitability of its investments. Significant partnerships with institutional investors and real estate developers further enhance its earnings potential by enabling access to larger capital pools and collaborative development opportunities.

Apollo Real Estate Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals. Income statement quality is weak with highly volatile revenue/profitability and large negative EBITDA in 2024–2025 (44/99), while the balance sheet reflects meaningful mortgage-REIT leverage and ROE swings (52/99). Cash flow is comparatively supportive with consistently positive operating cash flow and a strong 2025 free-cash-flow rebound, though variability remains (63/99).

Income Statement

Results are volatile and hard to underwrite from an earnings-quality perspective. Revenue has swung sharply (down ~56% in 2025 vs. 2024 after a large 2024 step-up vs. 2023), while profitability has been inconsistent (2024 net loss followed by a return to profit in 2025). Margins were strong in some earlier periods (notably 2021–2022), but the large negative EBITDA figures in 2024–2025 point to meaningful non-core or valuation-driven pressure, which reduces confidence in the stability of earnings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows meaningful leverage typical of a mortgage REIT, which increases sensitivity to credit and funding conditions. Debt-to-equity was elevated in 2021–2024 (roughly ~2.6x to ~3.4x), though equity has remained fairly steady across the period. Total assets have also been relatively stable, but return on equity has swung from solidly positive (2021–2022) to negative (2024), signaling that the capital base can experience periods of under-earning when the environment turns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow has been consistently positive across the years provided, and free cash flow is generally positive with a very strong rebound in 2025 (free cash flow up sharply vs. 2024). That said, 2024 free cash flow was much weaker than prior years, and cash flow conversion versus earnings has not been consistently strong (e.g., 2024 showed low free cash flow relative to net income), highlighting potential volatility in distributable cash generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	710.49M	701.53M	777.00M	641.34M	421.23M
Gross Profit	568.76M	560.39M	649.77M	549.15M	357.85M
EBITDA	598.31M	396.38M	532.93M	536.46M	388.68M
Net Income	126.72M	-119.64M	58.13M	265.23M	223.51M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.90B	8.41B	9.30B	9.57B	8.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	139.82M	317.40M	225.44M	222.03M	343.11M
Total Debt	7.92B	6.39B	6.95B	6.97B	6.01B
Total Liabilities	8.04B	6.54B	7.09B	7.21B	6.12B
Stockholders Equity	1.86B	1.87B	2.21B	2.35B	2.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	42.31M	30.75M	201.23M	234.67M	199.25M
Operating Cash Flow	142.52M	200.26M	273.86M	267.70M	199.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.39B	577.17M	68.42M	-1.34B	-1.36B
Financing Cash Flow	1.06B	-689.31M	-343.36M	957.97M	1.18B

Apollo Real Estate Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.63
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.61, above the 50-day MA of 10.24, and above the 200-day MA of 9.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARI.

Apollo Real Estate Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
DX	64 Neutral	$2.79B	5.66	17.50%	14.63%	47.97%	17.22%
ARI	60 Neutral	$1.47B	13.09	6.66%	9.89%	0.29%	―
ARR	57 Neutral	$1.98B	5.37	17.82%	15.06%	-27.55%	-97.87%
PMT	55 Neutral	$1.08B	12.61	6.67%	12.69%	-15.48%	-36.45%
LADR	54 Neutral	$1.32B	20.47	4.25%	8.21%	-17.18%	-17.16%
CIM	53 Neutral	$1.15B	8.01	9.04%	11.40%	9.46%	-111.44%

Apollo Real Estate Corporate Events

Apollo Commercial REIT to Sell $9 Billion Loan Portfolio

On January 27–28, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. entered into a definitive agreement to sell its approximately $9 billion commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene Holding Ltd. for a price based on 99.7% of total loan commitments, excluding two loans expected to be repaid before closing, in a cash transaction approved by ARI’s board upon the recommendation of an independent special committee and subject to stockholder approval and customary conditions. Following repayment of financing facilities, other debt and transaction expenses, ARI expects to emerge in the second quarter of 2026 as a well-capitalized REIT with roughly $1.4 billion in net cash, about $1.7 billion of common equity (around $12.05 per share), and retained net equity interests of $466 million in its real estate properties, a structure that management says validates book value, provides an immediate premium to the stock’s recent trading discount, and creates a runway to evaluate new commercial real estate strategies, potential M&A, and other strategic alternatives, including dissolution if no new strategy is announced by year-end, while temporarily cutting and stock-settling management fees and revising the manager compensation framework to tie fees more closely to return on equity.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARI) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apollo Real Estate stock, see the ARI Stock Forecast page.