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Ellington Financial (EFC)
NYSE:EFC
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Ellington Financial (EFC) AI Stock Analysis

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EFC

Ellington Financial

(NYSE:EFC)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$15.00
▲(7.60% Upside)
Ellington Financial's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and attractive valuation. However, financial performance concerns, particularly revenue volatility and cash flow instability, weigh on the score. Technical indicators support a moderately positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Portfolio Growth
Significant portfolio growth indicates strong market position and effective asset management, which can drive long-term revenue and profitability.
Securitization Activity
Record securitization activity enhances liquidity and risk management, supporting stable cash flows and financial flexibility over time.
Improved Financing Terms
Improved financing terms reduce borrowing costs, enhancing profitability and providing a competitive edge in capital management.
Negative Factors
Revenue Volatility
A complete drop in revenue raises concerns about the company's ability to maintain stable income streams, impacting long-term financial health.
Cash Flow Instability
Inconsistent cash flows can hinder the company's ability to reinvest in growth and manage obligations, affecting future operational stability.
Increased Cost of Funds
Higher cost of funds could pressure margins and reduce financial flexibility, impacting long-term profitability and competitive positioning.

Ellington Financial (EFC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ellington Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEllington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. The company acquires and manages residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by prime jumbo, Alt-A, manufactured housing, and subprime residential mortgage loans; RMBS for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or the U.S. government-sponsored entity; residential mortgage loans; commercial mortgage-backed securities; and commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate debt. It also provides collateralized loan obligations; mortgage-related and non-mortgage-related derivatives; corporate debt and equity securities; corporate loans; and other strategic investments. In addition, the company offers consumer loans and asset-backed securities backed by consumer and commercial assets. Ellington Financial LLC was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyEllington Financial generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its diversified portfolio of mortgage-related assets, including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities. The company also profits from capital gains realized when it sells these securities at a higher price than their purchase cost. Additionally, Ellington Financial may earn management fees from its investment management activities and may also benefit from various financing strategies, including leveraging its investments to enhance returns. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and market participants enable the company to access proprietary investment opportunities and enhance its market position, contributing to its overall earnings.

Ellington Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Ellington Financial demonstrated strong financial performance with record ADE, significant portfolio growth, and successful securitization activities. Despite some concerns about potential economic risks and the impact of increased HPA assumptions on retained tranches, the company's strategic initiatives and improved financing terms indicate a positive outlook.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Adjustable Distributable Earnings (ADE)
Ellington Financial reported ADE of $0.53 per share, setting a new quarterly high since they started reporting it in 2022, significantly exceeding their $0.39 per share dividends.
Growth in Investment Portfolio
The total portfolio holdings grew by 12% during the quarter, driven by non-QM, proprietary reverse mortgage, and commercial mortgage bridge loans.
Successful Securitization Activity
Ellington Financial priced a total of 7 securitizations during the quarter, a record for the company, and completed 20 securitizations year-to-date, more than triple last year's pace.
Unsecured Notes Issuance
Ellington Financial successfully priced $400 million of 5-year senior unsecured notes at 7 3/8%, representing a 363 basis point spread over the 5-year treasury.
Strong Performance of Longbridge Segment
The Longbridge segment had another excellent quarter with strong contributions from both originations and servicing, leading to a 37% increase in the Longbridge portfolio.
Improved Financing Terms
The total weighted average borrowing rate on recourse borrowings decreased by 8 basis points to 5.99%, with a notable 17 basis point decline on credit borrowings.
Negative Updates
Unrealized Losses on Retained Tranches
There were net unrealized losses on the retained tranches of Prop reverse securitizations due to faster prepayment speed assumptions, lower HPA projections, and higher applied discount rates.
Potential Economic Risks
Concerns were raised about potential market risks, including well-publicized bankruptcies in the corporate credit markets and weakened job formation compared to earlier in the year.
Increased Cost of Funds
The issuance of unsecured notes is expected to increase Ellington Financial's overall cost of funds by approximately 17 basis points.
Company Guidance
During the Ellington Financial Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, several key metrics and updates were presented. The company reported GAAP net income of $0.29 per share and adjustable distributable earnings (ADE) of $0.53 per share, which set a new quarterly high since ADE reporting began in 2022. This significantly exceeded the quarterly dividends of $0.39 per share. The increase in ADE was driven by higher net interest income from loan portfolios, as well as gains from securitizations, including a record of seven securitizations priced during the quarter. Ellington Financial's total portfolio holdings grew by 12%, with notable growth in non-QM, proprietary reverse mortgage, and commercial mortgage bridge loans. The company also priced $400 million in 5-year senior unsecured notes with a 7 3/8% coupon, which contributed to strengthening their balance sheet and reducing reliance on short-term financing. The overall economic return for the quarter was 9.2% annualized, with a book value per share of $13.40.

Ellington Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ellington Financial's financial performance is mixed, with significant volatility in revenue and cash flow. The income statement shows a concerning drop in revenue to zero in 2024, while the balance sheet reflects improved leverage. However, cash flow instability remains a challenge.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Ellington Financial has shown fluctuating revenue with a significant increase in 2023 followed by a complete drop in 2024. The gross profit margin has been strong historically, and the net profit margin improved in 2023. However, the complete lack of revenue reported in 2024 is concerning for long-term stability. EBIT has been inconsistent, indicating potential operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base, with stockholders' equity growing over time. The debt-to-equity ratio was high in 2023 but improved significantly by 2024 due to the reduction in total debt. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced approach to leverage. However, the drastic drop in total revenue raises questions about asset utilization efficiency.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Ellington Financial's cash flow from operations has been volatile, with negative cash flow in 2023 and zero in 2024. The financing cash flow has been positive, indicating reliance on external funding. Free cash flow has been inconsistent, which could impact the company's ability to reinvest in growth initiatives. The absence of free cash flow growth in 2024 is a concern.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue315.74M371.90M351.95M43.15M216.80M43.33M
Gross Profit270.02M298.33M251.79M23.55M174.46M5.50M
EBITDA393.10M403.19M323.48M303.15M216.80M67.31M
Net Income141.76M145.86M84.08M-70.05M133.46M25.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets17.07B16.32B15.32B14.09B5.18B3.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments230.63M192.39M230.54M217.05M92.66M111.65M
Total Debt14.88B14.28B13.33B12.40B3.64B2.39B
Total Liabilities15.38B14.73B13.78B12.87B3.85B2.49B
Stockholders Equity1.67B1.57B1.52B1.20B1.29B885.22M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-619.38M-430.53M-241.86M3.58M224.13M150.15M
Operating Cash Flow-619.38M-430.53M-241.86M42.69M51.29M119.51M
Investing Cash Flow-2.33B-728.26M174.91M-1.75B-2.03B507.27M
Financing Cash Flow2.97B1.14B75.63M1.84B1.95B-587.43M

Ellington Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price13.94
Price Trends
50DMA
13.26
Positive
100DMA
13.04
Positive
200DMA
12.52
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.10
Negative
RSI
63.23
Neutral
STOCH
45.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EFC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.45, above the 50-day MA of 13.26, and above the 200-day MA of 12.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EFC.

Ellington Financial Risk Analysis

Ellington Financial disclosed 124 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ellington Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ellington Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$1.37B11.299.23%11.19%70.94%2.95%
71
Outperform
$1.35B16.745.26%8.64%-17.18%-17.16%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
65
Neutral
$1.11B15.067.02%19.59%72.30%-54.02%
64
Neutral
$1.37B11.107.26%10.07%0.29%
63
Neutral
$1.01B2.10%12.31%9.46%-111.44%
58
Neutral
$1.06B13.276.37%12.87%-15.48%-36.45%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EFC
Ellington Financial
13.94
3.12
28.84%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
9.93
1.72
20.95%
CIM
Chimera Investment
12.24
-1.04
-7.83%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
12.43
0.89
7.71%
LADR
Ladder Capital
10.65
-0.08
-0.75%
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
7.35
0.93
14.49%

Ellington Financial Corporate Events

Ellington Financial Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance
Nov 7, 2025

Ellington Financial LLC is a diversified financial company specializing in investments across residential and commercial mortgage loans, mortgage-backed securities, and other strategic financial assets, managed by Ellington Financial Management LLC.

Financial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Ellington Financial Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Positive
Nov 5, 2025

Ellington Financial reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with a net income of $29.5 million and adjusted distributable earnings of $54.2 million. The company significantly increased its long-term, non-mark-to-market financing through securitizations and the issuance of senior unsecured notes, enhancing its balance sheet and risk management. The shift towards long-term financing is expected to support earnings stability and reduce reliance on short-term financing, benefiting stakeholders by fortifying the company’s capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (EFC) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ellington Financial stock, see the EFC Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Ellington Financial Declares October 2025 Dividend
Positive
Oct 7, 2025

On October 7, 2025, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share of common stock, which will be payable on November 28, 2025, to stockholders of record as of October 31, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its shareholders and may impact its financial positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (EFC) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ellington Financial stock, see the EFC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Ellington Financial Closes $400M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Oct 6, 2025

On October 6, 2025, Ellington Financial Inc. announced the closing of a $400 million offering of senior unsecured notes due 2030, issued through its subsidiaries. The proceeds from this offering are intended for general corporate purposes, including repaying borrowings and funding asset purchases, which may impact the company’s financial strategies and market operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (EFC) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ellington Financial stock, see the EFC Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Ellington Financial Prices $400M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

On September 30, 2025, Ellington Financial Inc. announced the pricing of a $400 million offering of 7.375% senior unsecured notes due 2030. The offering is expected to close on October 6, 2025, with proceeds intended for general corporate purposes, including repaying borrowings and funding asset purchases.

The most recent analyst rating on (EFC) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ellington Financial stock, see the EFC Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Ellington Financial Announces $400M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Sep 29, 2025

On September 29, 2025, Ellington Financial Inc. announced its plan to offer $400 million in senior unsecured notes due 2030 through its subsidiaries. The proceeds from this offering are intended for general corporate purposes, including repaying a portion of borrowings and funding additional asset purchases, aligning with the company’s investment strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (EFC) stock is a Hold with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ellington Financial stock, see the EFC Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Ellington Financial Announces September 2025 Dividends
Positive
Sep 8, 2025

On September 8, 2025, Ellington Financial Inc. announced a series of dividend declarations for its common and preferred stockholders. The Board of Directors declared a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share for common stock, and quarterly dividends for various series of preferred stocks, with payments scheduled for late September and October 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its shareholders and may influence investor confidence in the company’s financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (EFC) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ellington Financial stock, see the EFC Stock Forecast page.

Ellington Financial’s Earnings Call Highlights Strong Performance
Aug 12, 2025

Ellington Financial’s recent earnings call revealed a generally positive sentiment, with the company reporting significant gains in net income and adjusted distributable earnings. These results were driven by successful securitizations and robust performance from its loan origination platforms. Despite challenges such as widespread home price weakness and a significant nonperforming asset, the company’s strategic initiatives and financial performance suggest a positive outlook.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ellington Financial Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Ellington Financial Inc. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with a net income of $42.9 million attributable to common stockholders and an adjusted distributable earnings of $45.0 million. The company achieved a 13.8% annualized economic return and increased its book value per share to $13.49. The quarter was marked by robust securitization activities, with six transactions completed, and a stable investment portfolio despite market volatility. The company anticipates continued strong earnings through portfolio expansion, accelerated securitizations, and contributions from Longbridge, supported by the launch of its HELOC For Seniors program.

The most recent analyst rating on (EFC) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ellington Financial stock, see the EFC Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Ellington Financial Declares August 2025 Monthly Dividend
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share of common stock, which will be payable on September 30, 2025, to stockholders of record as of August 29, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its shareholders and may impact its financial operations and market positioning within the financial investment industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (EFC) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ellington Financial stock, see the EFC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025