Ellington Financial (EFC)
NYSE:EFC
Top Page
Ellington Financial
(NYSE:EFC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
â–²(3.31% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/08/26
The score is held back primarily by high leverage and weak/volatile cash-flow quality despite improved profitability. Valuation is a key positive (low P/E and high yield), and the latest earnings call supports a constructive outlook with dividend coverage and funding/liability improvements, but technical signals remain mixed with negative momentum below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Liability mix and term extension
Shifting funding from short-term repo to unsecured notes and longer recourse borrowings materially reduces rollover and liquidity risk. A longer, more diversified liability stack improves financing optionality and lowers vulnerability to short-term market dislocations, supporting steadier operations and dividend coverage over months.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Extremely elevated leverage magnifies sensitivity to asset-price moves, funding cost spikes, or mark‑to‑market volatility. High debt ratios constrain strategic optionality, raise refinancing and covenant risks, and make earnings and dividends vulnerable to even modest adverse credit or rate shifts over a 2–6 month horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Liability mix and term extension
Shifting funding from short-term repo to unsecured notes and longer recourse borrowings materially reduces rollover and liquidity risk. A longer, more diversified liability stack improves financing optionality and lowers vulnerability to short-term market dislocations, supporting steadier operations and dividend coverage over months.
Read all positive factors
Ellington Financial (EFC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.51B
Dividend Yield11.37%
Average Volume (3M)2.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.2
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth70.94%
EPS Growth2.95%
CountryUS
Employees400
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding124,649,025
10 Day Avg. Volume2,494,100
30 Day Avg. Volume2,024,697
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.74
Price to Book (P/B)0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)2.00
P/FCF Ratio2.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap11.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue41.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit47.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda76.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.83Price Target Upside22.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$434.15M
Ellington Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. The company acquires and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Ellington Financial primarily makes money from the net interest income and investment returns generated by a leveraged portfolio of mortgage- and credit-related assets. A core driver is the spread between: (1) the yield and cash flows it earns on ...
Ellington Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strongly positive operational and strategic picture: ADE coverage, meaningful portfolio growth (9% Q4; ~20% YoY), expanded securitization capabilities, a $400M unsecured notes issuance, and a 45% increase in unencumbered assets materially strengthened the balance sheet and funding profile. Management also executed targeted capital actions (accretive equity raise and preferred redemption) and reported solid credit metrics and originator performance. Offsetting items included near-term GAAP drag from fair-value accounting and deal costs, NIM compression driven by warehouse deployment, modest losses in select credit segments (CLO, CMBS, ABS, RCL), and ongoing policy/market uncertainty that could affect certain residential sectors. On balance, the substantive operational wins and balance sheet improvements outweigh the transitory and localized negatives, supporting a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Adjusted Distributable Earnings Covered Dividend
ADE of $0.47 per share in Q4 2025, exceeding the $0.39 per share dividend (six consecutive quarters of dividend coverage).
Negative Updates
GAAP Drag from One-Time and Short-Term Factors
GAAP earnings were pulled down by expensing deal costs (fair-value option on notes), an unrealized loss on unsecured notes as credit spreads tightened, and short-term negative carry while deploying note proceeds—contributing to a modest GAAP shortfall despite strong ADE.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted Distributable Earnings Covered Dividend
ADE of $0.47 per share in Q4 2025, exceeding the $0.39 per share dividend (six consecutive quarters of dividend coverage).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance for 2026 centers on growing loan origination market share, maintaining strong credit performance, accelerating securitizations, and further optimizing the liability mix — supported by Q4 results including ADE $0.47 vs. dividend $0.39 and GAAP net income $0.14 (ADE by segment: credit $0.35, agency $0.04, Longbridge $0.13); a portfolio near $5.0B (≈+20% YoY) with adjusted long credit at $4.1B (+15% QoQ), Longbridge $617M (−18% QoQ) and long agency RMBS $218M; seven securitizations in Q4 (25 in 2025 vs. 7 in 2024) and ~ $250M added to agency-eligible loans in 2025; balance-sheet actions including a $400M unsecured notes issue, unencumbered assets +45% to $1.77B (~90–95% of equity), recourse debt/equity 1.9x (from 1.8x), total debt/equity 9.0x (from 8.6x), long-term non‑mark‑to‑market financings 30% (from 17%), unsecured borrowings 18% (from 8%), weighted-average recourse borrowing rate 5.67% (−32 bps), repo term extended to ~9 months (+38%), Q4 principal paydowns $207M (12.7% of client fair value), Q4 economic return annualized 4.6% (≈2% in January), year-end book value $13.16/share, an accretive common offering >2.5x oversubscribed to fund redemption of Series A preferred (coupon >9%), and an in‑process acquisition of a small servicer to enhance servicing and workout capabilities.Ellington Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 674.54M | 282.19M | 256.50M | 43.15M | 216.80M |
| Gross Profit | 568.37M | 282.19M | 256.50M | 43.15M | 174.46M |
| EBITDA | 459.09M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 193.02M |
| Net Income | 146.87M | 145.86M | 84.08M | -70.05M | 133.46M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 19.35B | 16.32B | 15.32B | 14.09B | 5.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 201.89M | 192.39M | 230.54M | 221.87M | 92.84M |
| Total Debt | 16.96B | 0.00 | 13.33B | 12.40B | 3.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.48B | 14.73B | 13.78B | 12.87B | 3.85B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.83B | 1.57B | 1.52B | 1.20B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 509.04M | -430.53M | -241.86M | 3.58M | 224.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 509.04M | -430.53M | -241.86M | 42.69M | 51.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.47B | -728.26M | 174.91M | -1.75B | -2.03B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.09B | 1.14B | 75.63M | 1.84B | 1.95B |
Ellington Financial Technical Analysis
Negative
12.10
Price Trends
12.18
Negative
12.68
Negative
12.53
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.08
Negative
56.23
Neutral
95.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EFC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.70, below the 50-day MA of 12.18, and below the 200-day MA of 12.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EFC.
Ellington Financial Risk Analysis
Ellington Financial disclosed 121 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ellington Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ellington Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $1.47B | 10.61 | 6.83% | 9.89% | 0.29% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $1.51B | 9.19 | 8.54% | 11.37% | 70.94% | 2.95% | |
55 Neutral | $1.04B | 8.54 | 6.79% | 12.69% | -15.48% | -36.45% | |
55 Neutral | $1.37B | 2.89 | 15.05% | 20.03% | 72.30% | -54.02% | |
54 Neutral | $1.24B | 21.49 | 4.28% | 8.21% | -17.18% | -17.16% | |
53 Neutral | $1.09B | 4.43 | 8.85% | 11.40% | 9.46% | -111.44% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
EFC
Ellington Financial
12.10
1.82
17.66%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.55
3.33
46.14%
CIM
Chimera Investment
13.04
3.75
40.44%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
11.95
0.78
6.97%
LADR
Ladder Capital
9.78
0.60
6.50%
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
7.18
2.13
42.15%
Ellington Financial Corporate Events
Dividends
Ellington Financial Declares Monthly Common Stock Dividend
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its board declared a monthly common stock dividend of $0.13 per share, underscoring the company’s continued emphasis on distributing regular income to shareholders. The dividend will ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Ellington Financial Declares Monthly Common and Preferred Dividends
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its board declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.13 per share on its common stock, payable on April 30, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 31, 2026. The board also declared quarterl...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Ellington Financial Reports Solid Q4 2025 Earnings Growth
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Ellington Financial reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income attributable to common shareholders of $14.7 million, or $0.14 per share, and Adjusted Distributable Earnings of $51.4 million, or $0.47 per share, driven by strong contributions from its...
Dividends
Ellington Financial Declares Monthly Cash Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.13 per share on its common stock. The dividend will be paid on March 31, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 27, ...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Ellington Financial Announces Full Redemption of Series A Preferred
Neutral
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its board had authorized the full redemption of all 4.6 million outstanding shares of its 6.750% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, with the redemptio...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ellington Financial Announces New Common Stock Offering
Neutral
Jan 28, 2026
On January 26, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. and its external manager, Ellington Financial Management LLC, entered into an underwriting agreement with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to offer 8,775,000 shares of Ellington Financial’s commo...
Dividends
Ellington Financial Declares Monthly Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
On January 8, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its board had declared a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share on its common stock, payable on February 27, 2026 to stockholders of record as of January 30, 2026. The move underscores the c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.