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ARMOUR Residential REIT
(NYSE:ARR)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
▼(-0.32% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/02/26
The score is primarily held back by elevated balance-sheet leverage and a sharp trailing revenue decline despite improved profitability and positive cash flow. Offsetting factors include a supportive technical trend (price above major moving averages with positive MACD) and a favorable headline valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield), though the yield likely reflects meaningful risk.
Positive Factors
High-quality agency RMBS portfolio
A portfolio concentrated in agency RMBS (Ginnie/Fannie/Freddie) materially reduces credit risk versus private-label MBS, supporting more predictable coupon income and lower expected credit losses. This structural asset quality underpins the REIT's dividend model and resilience across rate cycles over months.
Negative Factors
Very high balance-sheet leverage
Implied leverage near eight times equity magnifies MBS valuation swings and funding-cost movements, reducing financial flexibility. High leverage raises the likelihood of margin calls, forced deleveraging, or NAV volatility, constraining the REIT's ability to navigate adverse rate or liquidity environments over 2–6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High-quality agency RMBS portfolio
A portfolio concentrated in agency RMBS (Ginnie/Fannie/Freddie) materially reduces credit risk versus private-label MBS, supporting more predictable coupon income and lower expected credit losses. This structural asset quality underpins the REIT's dividend model and resilience across rate cycles over months.
Read all positive factors
ARMOUR Residential REIT Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.12B
Dividend Yield15.06%
Average Volume (3M)3.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth67.32%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.93
Shares Outstanding124,046,120
10 Day Avg. Volume3,878,541
30 Day Avg. Volume3,213,733
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.27
P/FCF Ratio13.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.63
Enterprise Value/Revenue20.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.50Price Target Upside-0.32% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$462.29M
ARMOUR Residential REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR), founded in 2008 and based in Vero Beach, Florida, primarily allocates its capital to residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) within the United States. Its investment holdings predominantly comprise MBS tha...
How the Company Makes Money
ARR primarily makes money from net interest income generated by its mortgage investment portfolio. The core model is to (1) buy RMBS—primarily agency RMBS that carry minimal credit risk due to government or GSE guarantees—then (2) finance a signif...
ARMOUR Residential REIT Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted several strong operational and financial positives: a robust 10.63% Q4 total economic return, meaningful book value appreciation (+6.5% in Q4), healthy distributable earnings ($79.8M), portfolio growth (>10%) to over $20 billion, strong liquidity (~54% of equity), and improved funding conditions. Key risks were elevated prepayment speeds (CPR rising to 11.1), tighter spreads limiting incremental yield, mild dilution from ATM equity issuance, counterparty concentration in repo, and policy uncertainty around GSE actions. Overall, the favorable returns, liquidity position, and active risk management appear to outweigh the manageable headwinds, supporting a constructive outlook for 2026.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Total Economic Return
ARMOUR reported a total economic return of 10.63% for Q4, driven by MBS spread tightening, lower MBS volatility, and a lower interest rate environment.
Negative Updates
Rising Prepayment Speeds
Aggregate portfolio prepayments averaged 11.1 CPR through Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 to date, up from 8.1 CPR in Q3 2025, indicating elevated prepayment/refinance risk as mortgage rates move toward the low end of the 6%–6.3% band.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 Total Economic Return
ARMOUR reported a total economic return of 10.63% for Q4, driven by MBS spread tightening, lower MBS volatility, and a lower interest rate environment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 remains supportive and that they expect a consistent, predictable return profile driven by a steeper yield curve and lower volatility, while continuing to stress-test liquidity, hedge systematically and deploy capital opportunistically; key metrics cited include a Q4 total economic return of 10.63%, GAAP net income $28.7M ($1.86/sh), net interest income $50.4M, distributable earnings $79.8M ($0.71/sh), Q4 book value $18.63 (+6.5% QoQ) with a current estimate of $18.37 as of Feb 17, monthly common dividends of $0.24 ($0.72/quarter) with Feb and Mar dividends declared, a portfolio now north of $20B (up >10% since YE 2025) driven by ~22 bps of spread tightening, net balance sheet duration of 0.14 years, implied leverage ~7.9x (ex-Treasury loans), added >$3B of MBS/DUS (including >$1B of 4.5%/5% coupons), aggregate prepayments ~11.1 CPR (vs 8.1 CPR in Q3), ~92% of assets in specified pools (nearly 30% in prepayment-protected CMBS/discounts), ~86% of hedges in OIS/SOFR swaps, financing across 23 repo counterparties with ~80% of repo principal at ≤3% haircut and a weighted average haircut ≈2.75%, repo costs ~SOFR+15 bps, liquidity ~54% of shareholders’ equity, capital raises of ~$3.8M preferred in Q4 (183k shares), ~$138M common ATM through 2/11/26 (≈7.5M shares) and ~$4.8M preferred (230k shares), and a marginal capital hurdle near 16% with levered production-coupon yields on 30-year 5s in the mid-teens (8x leverage, hedged), all supporting their confidence in delivering shareholder value in 2026.ARMOUR Residential REIT Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 993.00M | 1.31B | 239.90M | 449.67M | -877.95M | 4.89M |
| Gross Profit | 951.04M | 1.27B | 206.77M | 418.09M | -903.93M | -17.61M |
| EBITDA | 764.28M | 966.80M | 509.75M | 457.87M | -92.63M | 70.58M |
| Net Income | 240.50M | 322.69M | -14.39M | -67.92M | -229.93M | 15.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.45B | 21.01B | 13.55B | 12.34B | 9.44B | 5.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 66.47M | 63.27M | 67.97M | 221.89M | 87.28M | 337.66M |
| Total Debt | 18.46B | 17.94B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 19.12B | 18.74B | 12.19B | 11.07B | 8.32B | 4.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.34B | 2.26B | 1.36B | 1.27B | 1.11B | 1.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 134.28M | 124.20M | 261.46M | 132.82M | 124.08M | 11.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 134.28M | 124.20M | 261.46M | 132.82M | 124.08M | 11.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.03B | -7.28B | -1.69B | -3.04B | -3.89B | 503.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.85B | 7.30B | 1.31B | 3.05B | 3.53B | -330.77M |
ARMOUR Residential REIT Technical Analysis
Positive
18.56
Price Trends
16.89
Positive
16.70
Positive
15.98
Positive
Market Momentum
0.12
Negative
54.83
Neutral
60.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.96, above the 50-day MA of 16.89, and above the 200-day MA of 15.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARR.
ARMOUR Residential REIT Risk Analysis
ARMOUR Residential REIT disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ARMOUR Residential REIT reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ARMOUR Residential REIT Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $1.69B | 7.74 | 11.88% | 11.37% | 33.43% | 19.55% | |
61 Neutral | $2.12B | 8.90 | 11.47% | 15.06% | 67.32% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $2.80B | 10.96 | 11.05% | 14.63% | 106.28% | 117.12% | |
52 Neutral | $1.42B | 11.87 | 6.88% | 9.89% | 3.09% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $1.28B | 22.12 | 3.71% | 8.21% | -12.74% | -46.71% | |
49 Neutral | $1.10B | ― | 0.75% | 11.40% | 10.27% | -151.66% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
17.18
3.13
22.27%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.29
1.18
13.00%
CIM
Chimera Investment
13.15
0.72
5.79%
DX
Dynex Capital
13.24
2.34
21.50%
EFC
Ellington Financial
13.58
2.02
17.42%
LADR
Ladder Capital
9.75
-0.24
-2.45%
ARMOUR Residential REIT Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
ARMOUR Residential REIT Confirms July 2026 Cash Dividends
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On July 1, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. confirmed a cash dividend of $0.24 per share on its common stock for July 2026, payable on July 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of July 15, 2026. The confirmation aligned with prior guidance an...
Dividends
ARMOUR Residential REIT Issues July 2026 Dividend Guidance
Positive
Jun 24, 2026
On June 24, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced guidance for a July 2026 cash dividend of $0.24 per common share, reflecting the company’s ongoing practice of distributing income to shareholders. The dividend will be paid on July 3...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
ARMOUR Residential REIT Issues June 2026 Portfolio Update
Neutral
Jun 12, 2026
On June 12, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT released a June 2026 update detailing its portfolio and capital structure as of May 31, 2026, with CPR data as of June 4, 2026, showing a $22.2 billion portfolio heavily concentrated in agency mortgageR...
Dividends
ARMOUR Residential REIT Declares June 2026 Cash Dividend
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 28, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. declared a June 2026 cash dividend of $0.24 per common share, reinforcing its income-distribution profile for shareholders. The dividend will be paid on June 29, 2026, to stockholders of record as of ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
ARMOUR Residential REIT Issues May 2026 Company Update
Neutral
May 15, 2026
ARMOUR Residential REIT released a May 2026 company update presentation on May 15, 2026, detailing its portfolio and capital structure as of April 30, 2026, and prepayment data as of May 6, 2026. The $21.7 billion portfolio is 93.7% agency mortgag...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
ARMOUR Residential REIT Shareholders Approve Expanded Incentive Plan
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
At its annual meeting on April 30, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT stockholders approved the Fourth Amended and Restated 2009 Stock Incentive Plan, expanding the pool of authorized common shares for equity and cash-based awards by 1,000,000 and upda...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
ARMOUR Residential REIT Posts Q1 2026 Loss Amid Volatility
Negative
Apr 22, 2026
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. reported unaudited first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, 2026, posting a GAAP net loss attributable to common shareholders of $58.0 million, or $0.49 per share, despite generating $70.7 million in net interest incom...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
ARMOUR Residential REIT Provides April 2026 Portfolio Update
Neutral
Apr 22, 2026
On April 22, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT released an April 2026 monthly update presentation detailing its portfolio, funding and dividend metrics as of March 31, 2026, with CPR data as of April 6. The company reported a $21.1 billion total portf...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ARMOUR Residential REIT Schedules Q1 2026 Earnings Webcast
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced it would host an online, real-time webcast of its conference call with equity analysts to discuss operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The webcast is scheduled for...
Dividends
ARMOUR Residential REIT Declares May 2026 Cash Dividend
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced a cash dividend of $0.24 per common share for the month of May 2026, reinforcing its ongoing distribution policy to shareholders. The dividend will be paid on May 28, 2026, to stockholders...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.