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ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)
NYSE:ARR
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ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) AI Stock Analysis

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ARR

ARMOUR Residential REIT

(NYSE:ARR)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(3.72% Upside)
ARMOUR Residential REIT's overall stock score is driven by a mix of financial challenges and strong technical indicators. The company's financial performance is hindered by operational inefficiencies and inconsistent revenue growth, but it benefits from strong cash flow generation. Technical analysis shows bullish momentum, while the valuation is mixed with a high P/E ratio but attractive dividend yield. The earnings call provided a positive outlook with increased book value and economic returns, though some risks remain.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Flow Generation
ARMOUR's ability to generate robust operating cash flow relative to net income highlights efficient cash management, which supports long-term operational stability and investment capacity.
Increased Book Value
The increase in book value indicates effective portfolio management and asset appreciation, enhancing shareholder equity and financial health over time.
Effective Hedging Strategy
ARMOUR's hedging strategy mitigates interest rate risks, stabilizing returns and protecting against market volatility, which is crucial for long-term financial resilience.
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Instability
Inconsistent revenue growth reflects challenges in maintaining steady income streams, which can undermine financial predictability and investor confidence.
Operational Inefficiencies
Operational inefficiencies, as evidenced by negative profit margins, suggest potential management and cost control issues, impacting long-term profitability and competitiveness.
High Investment Outflows
Significant investment outflows can strain cash reserves and limit financial flexibility, posing risks to future growth and strategic initiatives.

ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

ARMOUR Residential REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. The company's securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans, as well as unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments. It also invests in other securities backed by residential mortgages for which the payment of principal and interest is not guaranteed by a GSE or government agency. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust under the Internal Revenue Code. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to shareholders. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyARMOUR Residential REIT generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its portfolio of residential mortgage-backed securities. The company invests in RMBS that are backed by single-family homes and multi-family residential properties, allowing it to capitalize on the cash flows generated from the underlying mortgages. Additionally, ARMOUR uses leverage to enhance its returns, borrowing funds at lower interest rates to invest in higher-yielding RMBS. The spread between the interest income earned on these securities and the cost of borrowing constitutes a significant portion of the company's revenue. Furthermore, ARMOUR may also earn income from strategic partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions and investment funds that seek exposure to residential mortgage markets.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a generally positive outlook with increased book value and strong economic returns, supported by favorable conditions from the Fed's rate cuts. However, challenges like increased prepayment rates and the implications of the federal government shutdown introduce some concerns.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Book Value
ARMOUR's quarter-end book value was $17.49 per common share, up 3.5% from June 30, and up 2.8% from August 8.
Strong Economic Return
The total economic return for the quarter was 7.75%, reflecting positive market conditions and effective portfolio management.
Capital Raised and Share Repurchase
ARMOUR raised approximately $99.5 million by issuing 6 million shares and completed a $300 million overnight underwritten bought deal in August.
Positive Impact from Fed's Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve's easing cycle, including a 25 basis point cut, is expected to create a favorable environment for Agency MBS.
Negative Updates
Federal Government Shutdown Impact
The federal government shutdown starting October 1 delayed key data releases and introduced incremental uncertainty to growth forecasts.
Increased Prepayment Rates
Aggregate portfolio prepayment rates rose to 9.6 CPR in October compared to the third quarter average of 8.1 CPR, a 19% increase.
Potential Volatility from Economic Data Delays
A lack of government economic data due to the shutdown has introduced potential volatility risks.
Company Guidance
During the ARMOUR Residential REIT Third Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company shared several financial metrics that reflect its performance and strategic actions. ARMOUR reported a GAAP net income of $156.3 million, translating to $1.49 per common share, and net interest income of $38.5 million. The distributable earnings available to common stockholders were $75.3 million or $0.72 per share. The company achieved a total economic return of 7.75% for the quarter, with an end-of-quarter book value of $17.49 per common share, marking a 3.5% increase from June 30. ARMOUR raised approximately $99.5 million by issuing 6 million shares through an after-market offering and completed a $298.6 million sale of 18.5 million shares in August. Additionally, the company repurchased 700,000 shares in September. ARMOUR paid a dividend of $0.72 per share for the quarter and declared upcoming dividends of $0.24 per share for October and November. The company’s hedging strategy resulted in a net duration of 0.2 years and implied leverage of 8.1x, with 87% of hedges in OIS and SOFR pay fixed swaps.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ARMOUR Residential REIT faces significant challenges in achieving stable profitability and consistent revenue growth. While the balance sheet shows prudent debt management, the income statement highlights operational inefficiencies. The cash flow statement suggests a strong cash generation capability, but high investment outflows are a concern. Overall, the company needs to address its operational losses and stabilize revenue to enhance financial health.
Income Statement
32
Negative
The company shows significant volatility in its revenue and profit margins over the years. The TTM data indicates a positive gross profit margin of 71.41%, yet it suffers from a negative EBIT margin of -187.64% and a net profit margin of -2.75%, highlighting operational inefficiencies and substantial losses. Revenue growth has seen major fluctuations, indicating instability in income generation.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
ARMOUR Residential REIT displays a solid equity ratio of 10.99% in the TTM, though the absence of debt is a positive indicator of leverage management. However, the company's return on equity remains negative, reflecting challenges in generating returns from equity investment. The balance sheet shows a stable equity position but lacks strong profitability metrics.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
Despite operating cash flow being substantially positive, the free cash flow growth rate is negligible due to consistent capital expenditures. The TTM data shows a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, cash flow from investing activities is heavily negative, reflecting high investment outlays.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue542.58M239.90M449.67M-877.95M4.89M-213.22M
Gross Profit696.67M206.77M418.09M-903.93M-17.61M-233.99M
EBITDA565.60M509.75M457.87M-104.61M7.11M-151.13M
Net Income64.54M-14.39M-67.92M-229.93M15.36M-215.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets19.36B13.55B12.34B9.44B5.28B5.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments44.24M67.97M11.70B87.28M338.00M5.35B
Total Debt0.0010.72B9.65B6.46B3.95B4.54B
Total Liabilities17.23B12.19B11.07B8.32B4.00M4.20M
Stockholders Equity2.13B1.36B1.27B1.11B1.14B938.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow179.08M261.46M132.82M124.08M11.74M-257.82M
Operating Cash Flow179.08M261.46M132.82M124.08M11.74M-257.82M
Investing Cash Flow-6.66B-1.69B-3.04B-3.89B503.58M7.09B
Financing Cash Flow6.60B1.31B3.05B3.53B-330.77M-6.93B

ARMOUR Residential REIT Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.39
Price Trends
50DMA
14.99
Positive
100DMA
15.26
Positive
200DMA
15.42
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.35
Negative
RSI
73.58
Negative
STOCH
87.95
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.55, above the 50-day MA of 14.99, and above the 200-day MA of 15.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.58 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARR.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Risk Analysis

ARMOUR Residential REIT disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ARMOUR Residential REIT reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ARMOUR Residential REIT Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$1.40B17.485.26%8.42%-17.28%-17.16%
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
$1.33B10.988.81%11.68%20.32%1.58%
$1.06B10.457.32%11.32%4.83%-25.07%
$1.74B9.0411.92%14.43%44.42%17.22%
$1.84B354.433.75%18.36%-27.55%-97.87%
$1.43B-73.58-0.35%9.76%-26.29%-342.06%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
16.39
0.29
1.80%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.25
2.29
28.77%
CIM
Chimera Investment
13.07
-0.71
-5.15%
DX
Dynex Capital
13.58
2.96
27.87%
EFC
Ellington Financial
13.36
2.28
20.58%
LADR
Ladder Capital
10.93
0.54
5.20%

ARMOUR Residential REIT Corporate Events

ARMOUR Residential REIT Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Oct 24, 2025

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that primarily invests in residential mortgage-backed securities issued or guaranteed by U.S. Government-sponsored enterprises. The company is externally managed and operates within the financial sector, focusing on fixed-rate, adjustable-rate, and hybrid adjustable-rate residential mortgage-backed securities.

Armour Residential REIT’s Positive Earnings Call Highlights
Oct 24, 2025

The recent earnings call for Armour Residential REIT reflected a generally positive sentiment, bolstered by an increase in book value and strong economic returns. The company benefited from favorable conditions following the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. However, challenges such as increased prepayment rates and uncertainties stemming from the federal government shutdown were noted as potential concerns.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ARMOUR Residential REIT Releases Financial Position Update
Positive
Oct 22, 2025

On October 22, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT released a presentation detailing its financial position and business operations. The update highlighted the company’s focus on maintaining intermediate-term dividends and leveraging a diversified portfolio to manage interest rate and MBS price risks, with a significant portion of its portfolio in 30-year fixed-rate pools. ARMOUR’s strategic management of its portfolio and liquidity positions it to support shareholder value amidst market fluctuations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
ARMOUR Residential REIT Schedules Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Neutral
Oct 21, 2025

On October 21, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT announced an upcoming online webcast of its conference call with equity analysts to discuss the company’s third quarter 2025 operating results. The webcast is scheduled for October 23, 2025, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time, following the release of its earnings report after the market closes on October 22, 2025. This announcement highlights ARMOUR’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, providing them with timely insights into its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
ARMOUR Residential REIT Announces November 2025 Dividend
Neutral
Oct 21, 2025

On October 21, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced a cash dividend of $0.24 per share for November 2025, payable to common stockholders on November 28, 2025, with a record date of November 17, 2025. This dividend aligns with ARMOUR’s status as a real estate investment trust, which requires it to distribute substantially all of its taxable income. The decision reflects the company’s financial strategy and market conditions, impacting stakeholders by providing a return on investment while maintaining its tax status.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
ARMOUR Residential REIT Confirms October 2025 Dividends
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

On October 1, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT confirmed its cash dividend of $0.24 per share for common stockholders, payable on October 30, 2025, and a monthly cash dividend rate of $0.14583 per share for Series C Preferred Stockholders for the fourth quarter of 2025. This announcement aligns with the company’s previous guidance and reflects its commitment to maintaining its REIT tax status by distributing taxable income. The dividends are determined by the company’s board, considering factors like operations, cash flows, and market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
ARMOUR Residential REIT Announces October 2025 Dividend
Neutral
Sep 25, 2025

On September 24, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced its guidance for the October 2025 cash dividend, setting it at $0.24 per common share. The dividend is payable to shareholders of record as of October 15, 2025, with a payment date of October 30, 2025. This announcement reflects ARMOUR’s ongoing commitment to maintaining its REIT tax status by distributing a significant portion of its taxable income, which is a critical factor for stakeholders, including investors and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
ARMOUR Residential REIT Releases Financial Update Presentation
Neutral
Sep 12, 2025

On September 12, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT released a presentation detailing its financial position and operations. As of August 31, 2025, the company reported a common stock price of $15.31, a debt-equity ratio of 7.4, and total liquidity of $1,089.4 million, representing 51% of total capital. ARMOUR’s portfolio, heavily weighted towards 30-year fixed-rate pools, was valued at $18,196 million. The company declared a September common dividend of $0.24, with a pay date set for September 29, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividends
ARMOUR Residential REIT Declares September Cash Dividend
Positive
Aug 27, 2025

On August 27, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced a cash dividend of $0.24 per share for its common stock, payable in September 2025. This dividend is part of ARMOUR’s strategy to maintain its status as a real estate investment trust by distributing substantially all of its ordinary taxable income. The announcement underscores ARMOUR’s commitment to providing returns to its shareholders while adhering to its financial and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividends
ARMOUR Residential REIT Declares August 2025 Dividend
Neutral
Aug 15, 2025

On August 15, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. released a presentation detailing its financial position and operations. The update highlighted ARMOUR’s strategic focus on maintaining shareholder value through a diversified portfolio and risk management, with a common stock price of $16.31 and a total liquidity of $850.4 million as of July 31, 2025. The company declared a common dividend of $0.24 for August 2025, with a pay date of August 29, 2025. ARMOUR’s portfolio is heavily weighted towards 30-year fixed-rate pools, and the company continues to manage its interest rate and liquidity risks through strategic hedging and financing.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
ARMOUR Residential REIT Updates Book Value Estimate
Neutral
Aug 12, 2025

On August 12, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced an updated estimated book value per common share of approximately $17.02 as of August 8, 2025. The company, which operates as a real estate investment trust, is required to distribute substantially all of its ordinary REIT taxable income to maintain its tax status. This announcement may impact stakeholders by influencing dividend decisions, which are determined by the Board of Directors based on various financial and market factors.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ARMOUR Residential REIT Completes Major Stock Offering
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. completed a public offering of 18,500,000 shares of its common stock, generating gross proceeds of approximately $302,475,000. The company plans to use the net proceeds to acquire additional mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets, aligning with its strategic objectives. The offering, managed by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and BUCKLER Securities LLC, includes an option for underwriters to purchase an additional 2,775,000 shares. This move is expected to bolster ARMOUR’s position in the mortgage-backed securities market.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ARMOUR Residential REIT Expands Authorized Common Stock Shares
Positive
Aug 5, 2025

On August 1, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. increased its authorized common stock shares from 125 million to 175 million. This move could potentially enhance the company’s capital structure and market positioning, impacting shareholders and stakeholders positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

Armour Residential’s Earnings Call: Balancing Strengths and Challenges
Jul 29, 2025

The recent earnings call for Armour Residential presented a mixed sentiment, reflecting both the company’s strengths and ongoing challenges. While ARMOUR has managed to maintain strong liquidity and stable dividends, it faces significant hurdles, including a substantial net loss and volatility in spreads. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about potential improvements in banking demand and regulatory clarity, painting a balanced picture of both positive and negative aspects.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ARMOUR Residential REIT Amends Equity Sales Agreement
Neutral
Jul 28, 2025

On July 25, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced an amendment to its Equity Sales Agreement, increasing the number of shares of common stock available for sale by 9,500,000. This amendment, part of an ‘at the market offering’ program, allows the company to issue and sell up to 17,732,711 shares through various agents, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 26, 2025