ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.05B
• Dividend Yield: 15.06%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: -27.55%
• EPS Growth: -97.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.71
• Shares Outstanding: 119,384,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,428,138
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,342,669
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 9.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.42
• 1Y Price Target: $20.50
• Price Target Upside: 10.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $627.82M

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.50 ▼(-0.32% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is held back primarily by uneven financial performance and multi-year volatility (including unclear leverage consistency in the provided statements). Valuation is a major positive with a very low P/E and high dividend yield, and the latest earnings call supports a constructive near-term outlook via strong economic returns, book value gains, and solid liquidity, but technicals are only neutral-to-soft in the near term.

Positive Factors

Strong Liquidity Buffer

A liquidity position equal to roughly half of shareholders' equity and over $1bn in cash-like resources provides a durable buffer against repo dislocations and short-term funding shocks. This strengthens dividend coverage, supports opportunistic MBS purchases, and reduces near-term refinancing risk over the next several months.

High Share of Agency & Prepayment-Protected Pools

With over 90% agency exposure and ~92% in specified/prepayment-protected pools (including ~30% in protected CMBS/discounts), credit risk is minimal and negative-convexity/prepayment sensitivity is actively mitigated. This portfolio mix supports steadier net interest income and lower credit volatility across months.

Active Hedging & Improved Funding

A systematic hedging program (majority OIS/SOFR swaps), diversified repo across 23 counterparties, and materially improved repo pricing stabilize interest-rate exposure and funding costs. This reduces earnings volatility from rate moves and supports more predictable net interest spread generation in the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

High and Inconsistent Leverage

Implied leverage near 7.5–8x combined with inconsistent leverage reporting elevates funding and solvency uncertainty. Heavy reliance on short-term repo amplifies sensitivity to liquidity shocks; inconsistent disclosures make it harder to gauge runway and capital cushions for dividend support over the next several quarters.

Elevated Prepayment Risk

Rising CPR (about 11.1 vs 8.1 prior) shortens expected cash flows and forces reinvestment into lower-yielding assets, eroding net interest margins and distributable earnings. Persistently higher speeds reduce long-term income predictability and pressure dividend sustainability if refinance activity continues.

Spread Tightening Compresses New-Yield

While spread tightening raised book value, it reduces yields on newly purchased MBS and narrows the spread over funding. That structural headwind limits the earnings power of future deployments and requires more selective, higher-return origination to maintain prior distributable earnings levels.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. The company's securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans, as well as unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments. It also invests in other securities backed by residential mortgages for which the payment of principal and interest is not guaranteed by a GSE or government agency. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust under the Internal Revenue Code. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to shareholders. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

ARR primarily makes money from the net interest spread generated by its leveraged investments in agency RMBS. It finances a significant portion of its RMBS holdings using short-term borrowings (commonly repurchase agreements), earning interest income on its mortgage securities while paying interest expense on its funding; the difference (net interest income) is a core driver of earnings. Because the underlying securities are agency-guaranteed, ARR’s main economic risks and return drivers tend to be interest-rate movements, yield-curve shape, mortgage prepayments, and funding costs rather than borrower credit losses. In addition to net interest income, ARR’s results are influenced by realized and unrealized gains or losses on RMBS and on derivatives used for hedging (such as interest rate swaps, swaptions, futures, or Treasury-related instruments), which can materially affect reported earnings and book value depending on market conditions. The company may also generate income (or incur expense) from dollar-roll transactions and other mortgage financing techniques when used. Overall, ARR’s earnings capacity is heavily tied to its ability to manage leverage, control funding costs, and actively hedge interest-rate and prepayment risks while maintaining an attractive spread between RMBS yields and its cost of borrowings.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: profitability rebounded sharply in 2025 after losses in 2022–2024, but revenue and margins have been highly volatile, reducing confidence in durability. Cash flow has been positive in 2021–2025 (supportive), though down in 2025 vs. 2024. Balance sheet flexibility improved with equity growth, but the provided leverage figures are inconsistent, creating uncertainty around true leverage risk.

Income Statement

Earnings have been volatile across the cycle, with losses in 2022–2024 followed by a sharp rebound to strong profitability in 2025. Revenue trends are unstable, including a steep drop to near-zero reported revenue in 2025 and large swings in prior years, which reduces confidence in the durability of recent results. Margins also swing meaningfully year-to-year, reinforcing an inconsistent operating profile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a large asset base and equity that has expanded materially from 2021–2025, supporting improved financial flexibility. However, leverage disclosures are inconsistent: total debt is very high in 2020 but reported as zero in 2021–2025, which makes leverage risk harder to assess from the provided figures. Return on equity improved sharply in 2025 after several weak years, but the multi-year track record remains uneven.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally positive in recent years, with operating cash flow and free cash flow positive from 2021–2025 and a notable step-up in 2024. That said, free cash flow declined in 2025 versus 2024, and 2020 showed materially negative cash flow, highlighting sensitivity to market conditions. Overall, cash flow looks healthier lately, but not consistently upward-trending.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.31B	239.90M	449.67M	-877.95M	4.89M
Gross Profit	1.27B	206.77M	418.09M	-903.93M	-17.61M
EBITDA	964.77M	509.75M	457.87M	-109.14M	22.47M
Net Income	322.69M	-14.39M	-67.92M	-229.93M	15.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.01B	13.55B	12.34B	9.44B	5.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	63.27M	67.97M	221.89M	87.28M	337.66M
Total Debt	17.94B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	18.74B	12.19B	11.07B	8.32B	4.13B
Stockholders Equity	2.26B	1.36B	1.27B	1.11B	1.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	124.20M	261.46M	132.82M	124.08M	11.74M
Operating Cash Flow	124.20M	261.46M	132.82M	124.08M	11.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-7.28B	-1.69B	-3.04B	-3.89B	503.58M
Financing Cash Flow	7.30B	1.31B	3.05B	3.53B	-330.77M

ARMOUR Residential REIT Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.56
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.50, above the 50-day MA of 17.55, and above the 200-day MA of 15.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARR.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DX	66 Neutral	$2.67B	2.95	17.19%	14.63%	47.97%	17.22%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ARR	63 Neutral	$2.05B	2.34	16.65%	15.06%	-27.55%	-97.87%
ARI	60 Neutral	$1.46B	10.61	6.83%	9.89%	0.29%	―
EFC	58 Neutral	$1.49B	9.19	8.54%	11.37%	70.94%	2.95%
LADR	54 Neutral	$1.28B	21.49	4.28%	8.21%	-17.18%	-17.16%
CIM	53 Neutral	$1.11B	4.43	8.85%	11.40%	9.46%	-111.44%

ARMOUR Residential REIT Corporate Events

ARMOUR Residential REIT Issues March 2026 Portfolio Update

On March 13, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT released a March 2026 monthly update detailing its financial position, portfolio and capital structure as of late February. The company reported a $21.4 billion total investment portfolio dominated by 30-year agency mortgage-backed securities, with agency assets comprising 93.5% of holdings and an additional allocation to U.S. Treasuries and TBA positions, reflecting a strategy centered on government-backed mortgage credit and interest rate management.

Key metrics as of February 28, 2026, showed a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.9, implied leverage of 8.1, and liquidity of about $1.22 billion, equal to 51% of total capital, underscoring a significant but actively managed leverage profile. ARMOUR also reaffirmed a monthly common dividend of $0.24 per share for March, implying a 16.0% yield at the prevailing $17.95 stock price, a level that signals both substantial income for shareholders and the importance of dividend sustainability in its business model.

The update highlighted that BUCKLER Securities LLC, an affiliated broker-dealer, provided 45.1% of ARMOUR’s $19.0 billion in repurchase financing, with balanced terms across other counterparties, indicating diversified funding sources despite notable affiliate concentration. The company also outlined a $12.6 billion interest rate swap book with an average remaining term of 49 months and a 2.47% weighted average rate, demonstrating an extensive hedging program aimed at moderating interest rate and mortgage-backed security price risks across multiple maturities.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Highlights Strong Q4 Results, Liquidity

ARMOUR Residential REIT reported unaudited fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 18, 2026, posting GAAP net income available to common shareholders of $208.7 million, or $1.86 per share, and distributable earnings of $79.8 million, or $0.71 per share. The company generated net interest income of $50.4 million, maintained an economic net interest spread of 1.77%, paid $0.72 per common share in dividends for the quarter, and raised $3.8 million via preferred stock issuance.

As of December 31, 2025, book value per common share rose 6.5% from September 30 to $18.63, contributing to a Q4 total economic return of 10.63% and a full-year 2025 economic return of 12.79%. ARMOUR reported $1.2 billion of liquidity, portfolio leverage near 8:1, and a portfolio 97.0% invested in Agency MBS, while management highlighted roughly 60% portfolio growth in 2025 driven by $878 million of capital deployment into MBS amid tighter spreads, lower volatility, and a lower rate environment, underscoring confidence in its capital deployment and risk management strategy.

On February 17, 2026, the company reported more than $1.0 billion in liquidity excluding $300.0 million of pending MBS principal and interest, and a securities portfolio of about $21.1 billion, including TBA securities. Through February 11, 2026, ARMOUR raised approximately $138.0 million via common stock and $4.8 million via preferred stock under at-the-market programs, while keeping its debt-to-equity ratio around 8:1 and signaling continued active balance sheet and capital management for shareholders’ benefit.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Issues February Portfolio and Dividend Update

On February 18, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT released a February 2026 monthly update detailing its mortgage‑backed securities portfolio and capital position as of January 31, 2026. The $20.98 billion portfolio remains overwhelmingly concentrated in agency mortgage assets, with 30‑year fixed‑rate pools accounting for nearly 90% of holdings, supported by a mix of net TBA positions and U.S. Treasury longs to manage duration and interest‑rate exposure.

Key balance‑sheet metrics in the update highlight a highly levered but liquid profile, with repo and implied leverage ratios of roughly 7.5–7.8 times equity and liquidity of $1.32 billion, equal to 54% of total capital. For income investors, the company reaffirmed a monthly common dividend of $0.24 per share for March, implying a dividend yield of 16.6% at a $17.40 stock price, underscoring ARMOUR’s continued focus on sustaining high payouts despite relying heavily on short‑term repo funding and extensive interest rate swap hedges across varying maturities.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Schedules Q4 2025 Earnings Webcast

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced on February 17, 2026, that it will host an online, real-time webcast of its conference call with equity analysts to discuss operating results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. The call is scheduled for Thursday, February 19, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time, following the planned release of fourth quarter 2025 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, February 18, 2026.

The live broadcast will be accessible via a dedicated webcast link, with an online replay available on the company’s website for one year, providing extended access for investors and other stakeholders. This scheduled communication underscores ARMOUR’s efforts to maintain transparency around its financial performance and to engage actively with the investment community regarding its mortgage-backed securities portfolio and operating results.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Declares March 2026 Monthly Dividend

On February 17, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.24 per common share for the month of March 2026, reinforcing its income-distribution role for shareholders. The dividend will be paid on March 30, 2026, to stockholders of record as of March 16, 2026, providing clarity on the company’s near-term payout schedule and supporting investor expectations for ongoing cash returns.

As a U.S. REIT, ARMOUR highlighted that it must distribute substantially all of its ordinary REIT taxable income to maintain its tax status, and noted that dividends paid in excess of current tax earnings and profits may be non-taxable to common stockholders. The announcement underscored that actual dividend levels remain at the discretion of the board, which weighs operational results, liquidity, capital needs and market conditions, signaling that payout policy could adjust if business or macro conditions shift.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Declares February 2026 Monthly Dividend

On January 29, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced that it would pay a cash dividend of $0.24 per share on its common stock for the month of February 2026, with shareholders of record as of February 17, 2026 scheduled to receive payment on February 27, 2026. The company noted that, as a REIT, it must distribute substantially all of its ordinary taxable income to maintain its tax status, and indicated that dividend levels are set at the board’s discretion based on operational results, cash flows, financial condition, capital needs, and market conditions, underscoring the role of regular dividends as a key element of its shareholder return and capital allocation strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Expands ATM Equity Sales Program

On January 28, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT amended its existing at-the-market equity sales program, increasing by 15 million the number of common shares that may be offered and sold and revising its roster of sales agents, removing Janney Montgomery Scott and adding Huntington Securities. Under the amended agreement, ARMOUR may now issue and sell up to 23,244,198 common shares—comprising 8,244,198 previously authorized but unsold shares plus the newly added 15 million—through a group of agents in connection with its effective shelf registration, a move that further extends the company’s ongoing capital-raising program and could provide additional funding flexibility for its mortgage investment operations and balance-sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Issues January 2026 Financial Update

On January 16, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT issued a January 2026 monthly update presentation detailing its financial position and portfolio data as of December 31, 2025, showing a $20.0 billion portfolio heavily concentrated in agency mortgage‑backed securities, with 97% in agency holdings and 91.5% in 30‑year fixed‑rate pools, supplemented by a small allocation to U.S. Treasury long positions. The company reported key metrics including an estimated fourth‑quarter 2025 book value per common share of $18.53 to $18.73 versus a $17.69 common stock price, debt‑to‑equity of 7.9, implied leverage of 8.1, and total liquidity of about $1.17 billion, representing 52% of total capital, alongside a monthly common dividend of $0.24 per share (yielding 16.3%) scheduled for payment on January 29, 2026, and detailed its short‑term repo funding profile and extensive interest rate swap positions, underscoring its reliance on leverage, active hedging and ample liquidity to manage interest‑rate risk and sustain dividends for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Confirms January 2026 Dividend Payments

On January 2, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. confirmed a cash dividend of $0.24 per share on its common stock for January 2026, payable on January 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 15, 2026, aligning with guidance issued in late December 2025. The company also confirmed a monthly cash dividend of $0.14583 per share on its Series C preferred stock for each month of the first quarter of 2026, with record dates on the 15th of January, February and March and corresponding payments on January 27, February 27 and March 27, underscoring its ongoing commitment to regular capital returns as it distributes substantially all of its REIT taxable income in order to maintain its tax status.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Buy with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Sets January 2026 Dividend Guidance

On December 23, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT announced guidance for a January 2026 monthly cash dividend of $0.24 per common share, with shareholders of record on January 15, 2026 scheduled to receive payment on January 29, 2026. The company also disclosed that on December 22, 2025 its external manager, ARMOUR Capital Management LP, notified ARMOUR that it will end its voluntary waiver of a portion of the base management fee for amounts due after February 1, 2026, meaning management fees tied to January 2026 services will no longer benefit from the waiver, which could modestly increase the company’s expense base and affect returns to shareholders going forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Buy with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.