ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.11B
• Dividend Yield: 16.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 406.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: -27.55%
• EPS Growth: -97.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.72
• Shares Outstanding: 111,898,240
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,250,286
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,254,914
• PEG Ratio: 0.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 57.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 37.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 75.90
• 1Y Price Target: $19.50
• Price Target Upside: 7.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $671.09M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.00 ▲(10.31% Upside)

ARR scores in the low 60s primarily due to improved TTM financial performance (profitability rebound, positive cash generation, and no reported debt) and a constructive earnings-call backdrop (higher book value and solid economic return). Technicals are supportive but look overbought, while valuation is pressured by an extremely high P/E despite the very high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Flow Generation

ARMOUR's ability to generate robust operating cash flow relative to net income highlights efficient cash management, which supports long-term operational stability and investment capacity.

Increased Book Value

The increase in book value indicates effective portfolio management and asset appreciation, enhancing shareholder equity and financial health over time.

Effective Hedging Strategy

ARMOUR's hedging strategy mitigates interest rate risks, stabilizing returns and protecting against market volatility, which is crucial for long-term financial resilience.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Instability

Inconsistent revenue growth reflects challenges in maintaining steady income streams, which can undermine financial predictability and investor confidence.

Operational Inefficiencies

Operational inefficiencies, as evidenced by negative profit margins, suggest potential management and cost control issues, impacting long-term profitability and competitiveness.

High Investment Outflows

Significant investment outflows can strain cash reserves and limit financial flexibility, posing risks to future growth and strategic initiatives.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. The company's securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans, as well as unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments. It also invests in other securities backed by residential mortgages for which the payment of principal and interest is not guaranteed by a GSE or government agency. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust under the Internal Revenue Code. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to shareholders. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

ARMOUR Residential REIT generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its portfolio of residential mortgage-backed securities. The company invests in RMBS that are backed by single-family homes and multi-family residential properties, allowing it to capitalize on the cash flows generated from the underlying mortgages. Additionally, ARMOUR uses leverage to enhance its returns, borrowing funds at lower interest rates to invest in higher-yielding RMBS. The spread between the interest income earned on these securities and the cost of borrowing constitutes a significant portion of the company's revenue. Furthermore, ARMOUR may also earn income from strategic partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions and investment funds that seek exposure to residential mortgage markets.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ARMOUR Residential REIT faces significant challenges in achieving stable profitability and consistent revenue growth. While the balance sheet shows prudent debt management, the income statement highlights operational inefficiencies. The cash flow statement suggests a strong cash generation capability, but high investment outflows are a concern. Overall, the company needs to address its operational losses and stabilize revenue to enhance financial health.

Income Statement

The company shows significant volatility in its revenue and profit margins over the years. The TTM data indicates a positive gross profit margin of 71.41%, yet it suffers from a negative EBIT margin of -187.64% and a net profit margin of -2.75%, highlighting operational inefficiencies and substantial losses. Revenue growth has seen major fluctuations, indicating instability in income generation.

Balance Sheet

ARMOUR Residential REIT displays a solid equity ratio of 10.99% in the TTM, though the absence of debt is a positive indicator of leverage management. However, the company's return on equity remains negative, reflecting challenges in generating returns from equity investment. The balance sheet shows a stable equity position but lacks strong profitability metrics.

Cash Flow

Despite operating cash flow being substantially positive, the free cash flow growth rate is negligible due to consistent capital expenditures. The TTM data shows a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, cash flow from investing activities is heavily negative, reflecting high investment outlays.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	309.93M	239.90M	449.67M	-877.95M	4.89M	-213.22M
Gross Profit	474.06M	206.77M	418.09M	-903.93M	-17.61M	-233.99M
EBITDA	234.67M	510.10M	457.87M	-104.61M	7.11M	-151.13M
Net Income	64.54M	-14.39M	-67.92M	-229.93M	15.36M	-215.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.36B	13.55B	12.34B	9.44B	5.28B	5.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	44.24M	67.97M	221.89M	87.28M	337.66M	171.67M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.54B
Total Liabilities	17.23B	12.19B	11.07B	8.32B	4.13B	4.59B
Stockholders Equity	2.13B	1.36B	1.27B	1.11B	1.14B	938.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	179.08M	261.46M	132.82M	124.08M	11.74M	-257.82M
Operating Cash Flow	179.08M	261.46M	132.82M	124.08M	11.74M	-257.82M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.66B	-1.69B	-3.04B	-3.89B	503.58M	7.09B
Financing Cash Flow	6.60B	1.31B	3.05B	3.53B	-330.77M	-6.93B

ARMOUR Residential REIT Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.83, above the 50-day MA of 16.99, and above the 200-day MA of 15.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 82.45 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARR.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LADR	66 Neutral	$1.42B	17.61	5.26%	8.21%	-17.18%	-17.16%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
DX	65 Neutral	$2.09B	9.63	11.92%	14.63%	47.97%	17.22%
ARI	64 Neutral	$1.40B	11.39	7.26%	9.89%	0.29%	―
ARR	61 Neutral	$2.11B	406.48	3.75%	16.45%	-27.55%	-97.87%
EFC	60 Neutral	$1.54B	10.50	9.23%	11.37%	70.94%	2.95%
CIM	50 Neutral	$1.10B	-32.79	2.10%	11.40%	9.46%	-111.44%

ARMOUR Residential REIT Corporate Events

ARMOUR Residential REIT Issues January 2026 Financial Update

On January 16, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT issued a January 2026 monthly update presentation detailing its financial position and portfolio data as of December 31, 2025, showing a $20.0 billion portfolio heavily concentrated in agency mortgage‑backed securities, with 97% in agency holdings and 91.5% in 30‑year fixed‑rate pools, supplemented by a small allocation to U.S. Treasury long positions. The company reported key metrics including an estimated fourth‑quarter 2025 book value per common share of $18.53 to $18.73 versus a $17.69 common stock price, debt‑to‑equity of 7.9, implied leverage of 8.1, and total liquidity of about $1.17 billion, representing 52% of total capital, alongside a monthly common dividend of $0.24 per share (yielding 16.3%) scheduled for payment on January 29, 2026, and detailed its short‑term repo funding profile and extensive interest rate swap positions, underscoring its reliance on leverage, active hedging and ample liquidity to manage interest‑rate risk and sustain dividends for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Confirms January 2026 Dividend Payments

On January 2, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. confirmed a cash dividend of $0.24 per share on its common stock for January 2026, payable on January 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 15, 2026, aligning with guidance issued in late December 2025. The company also confirmed a monthly cash dividend of $0.14583 per share on its Series C preferred stock for each month of the first quarter of 2026, with record dates on the 15th of January, February and March and corresponding payments on January 27, February 27 and March 27, underscoring its ongoing commitment to regular capital returns as it distributes substantially all of its REIT taxable income in order to maintain its tax status.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Buy with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Sets January 2026 Dividend Guidance

On December 23, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT announced guidance for a January 2026 monthly cash dividend of $0.24 per common share, with shareholders of record on January 15, 2026 scheduled to receive payment on January 29, 2026. The company also disclosed that on December 22, 2025 its external manager, ARMOUR Capital Management LP, notified ARMOUR that it will end its voluntary waiver of a portion of the base management fee for amounts due after February 1, 2026, meaning management fees tied to January 2026 services will no longer benefit from the waiver, which could modestly increase the company’s expense base and affect returns to shareholders going forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Buy with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Releases Financial Update Presentation

On December 12, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. released a presentation detailing its financial position and operations as of November 30, 2025. The update highlights ARMOUR’s strategic focus on maintaining shareholder value through a diversified MBS portfolio and effective risk management. The company reported a total portfolio value of $19,362 million, with a significant portion in agency MBS. ARMOUR’s financial strategy includes leveraging equity capital and repurchase financing, with a debt-equity ratio of 8.1 and total liquidity of $1,095.2 million. The announcement underscores ARMOUR’s commitment to sustaining common share dividends and managing interest rate risks, which is crucial for its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Declares December 2025 Dividend

On November 26, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced a cash dividend of $0.24 per share for December 2025, payable to common stockholders on December 29, 2025, with a record date of December 15, 2025. This announcement reflects ARMOUR’s commitment to maintaining its REIT status by distributing its taxable income, and the dividend decision is influenced by factors such as operational results, cash flows, and market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Releases Financial Update Presentation

On November 14, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. released a presentation detailing updates on its financial position and operations. The update highlighted the company’s strategic focus on maintaining common share dividends and managing a diversified portfolio of mortgage-backed securities. The report also provided insights into the company’s portfolio composition and financial metrics as of October 31, 2025, including a total portfolio value of $18.769 billion and a current dividend yield of 17.8%.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Releases Financial Position Update

On October 22, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT released a presentation detailing its financial position and business operations. The update highlighted the company’s focus on maintaining intermediate-term dividends and leveraging a diversified portfolio to manage interest rate and MBS price risks, with a significant portion of its portfolio in 30-year fixed-rate pools. ARMOUR’s strategic management of its portfolio and liquidity positions it to support shareholder value amidst market fluctuations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Schedules Q3 2025 Earnings Call

On October 21, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT announced an upcoming online webcast of its conference call with equity analysts to discuss the company’s third quarter 2025 operating results. The webcast is scheduled for October 23, 2025, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time, following the release of its earnings report after the market closes on October 22, 2025. This announcement highlights ARMOUR’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, providing them with timely insights into its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Announces November 2025 Dividend

On October 21, 2025, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced a cash dividend of $0.24 per share for November 2025, payable to common stockholders on November 28, 2025, with a record date of November 17, 2025. This dividend aligns with ARMOUR’s status as a real estate investment trust, which requires it to distribute substantially all of its taxable income. The decision reflects the company’s financial strategy and market conditions, impacting stakeholders by providing a return on investment while maintaining its tax status.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARR) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARMOUR Residential REIT stock, see the ARR Stock Forecast page.