Dynex Capital (DX)
NYSE:DX
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Dynex Capital
(NYSE:DX)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(6.54% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/28/26
The score is primarily held back by elevated leverage and balance-sheet risk despite improved profitability and cash generation. Technicals are constructive and the dividend yield is very attractive, but earnings/book value volatility highlighted on the earnings call keeps the overall risk/reward in the middle range.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
TTM OCF/FCF rising to $184.3M (up 52.5%) signals the company is converting portfolio income into usable cash more reliably. Durable cash generation supports dividend distributions, opportunistic MBS deployment, and buffers against short-term market stress while management executes its capital plan.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage burden
Debt rising to $21B and a ~7.7x debt-to-equity ratio materially increases sensitivity to funding-cost moves and repo market stress. High structural leverage amplifies losses from spread widening or adverse hedging, constrains strategic flexibility, and raises long-term refinancing and liquidity risk for a mortgage REIT.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
TTM OCF/FCF rising to $184.3M (up 52.5%) signals the company is converting portfolio income into usable cash more reliably. Durable cash generation supports dividend distributions, opportunistic MBS deployment, and buffers against short-term market stress while management executes its capital plan.
Read all positive factors
Dynex Capital (DX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.93B
Dividend Yield14.63%
Average Volume (3M)6.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth136.94%
EPS Growth117.12%
CountryUS
Employees22
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding215,150,910
10 Day Avg. Volume5,150,112
30 Day Avg. Volume6,216,557
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.71
Price to Sales (P/S)3.26
P/FCF Ratio14.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue32.07
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit32.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.13Price Target Upside11.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$375.53M
Dynex Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on a leveraged basis in the United States. It invests in agency and non-agency MBS consisting of residential MBS, commercial MBS (CMBS), and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Dynex Capital primarily makes money from net interest income generated by its investment portfolio. It purchases agency MBS (and other mortgage-related assets), which pay interest and principal cash flows, and funds those holdings largely with sho...
Dynex Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful operational progress: significant capital base growth (18%), strong liquidity (>$1.3B and >46% of equity), opportunistic deployment of $442M, net interest income improvement (~42.9% increase q/q), reduced exposure to highly callable TBAs (from >16% to ~7%), and an estimated post-quarter book value rebound (+5.6% QTD to $13.31). Lowlights included a negative economic return of -2.5% for the quarter (a $0.85 per share decline in book value), increased leverage (8.6x), transient spread widening amid geopolitical-driven volatility, and a near-term rise in G&A from one-time items. On balance, management emphasizes durable liquidity, attractive forward returns (mid- to high-teens static ROEs), and policy-driven upside for tighter spreads, while acknowledging short-term volatility and policy dependence.Positive Updates
Total Capital Base Growth
Total capital base grew by 18% over the last 15 months; management emphasized scale benefits and positioned the company as the third-largest agency-focused mortgage REIT.
Negative Updates
Negative Economic Return for the Quarter
Economic return was negative 2.5% in the quarter, comprised of $0.51 per share of common dividends and a $0.85 per share decrease in book value.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Total Capital Base Growth
Total capital base grew by 18% over the last 15 months; management emphasized scale benefits and positioned the company as the third-largest agency-focused mortgage REIT.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance combined specific financials and forward-looking targets: book value was $12.60 at quarter end (economic return -2.5% for the quarter, comprising $0.51 of common dividends and a $0.85 decline in book value), leverage was 8.6x, the total capital base grew 18% after raising $442 million and expanding the investment portfolio by $6 billion, and liquidity stood at $1.3 billion of cash and unencumbered securities (>46% of total equity) with quarter‑to‑date book value estimated at $13.31 (up 5.6% vs. quarter end). They noted net interest income rose to $0.40/share from $0.28/share as financing costs fell ~33 bps, repo spreads to SOFR were 13–17 bps (3–5 bps below last year), and agency MBS spreads to the seven‑year swap moved from the high‑120s to nearly 170 in March, tightened to the low‑160s at quarter end (toward ~150 late last week) with a view that spreads could trade toward 120 bps and a longer‑run equilibrium nearer 100 bps—supporting static ROEs in the mid‑ to high‑teens for current‑coupon mortgages hedged with swaps. They expect 60–80% of hedges to be interest‑rate swaps (about 70% DV01 at quarter end), reduced TBA exposure (from >16% to ~7% of the portfolio), Q2 normalization of G&A with a full‑year expense ratio flat or modestly lower versus year‑end, and continued opportunistic capital deployment so long as marginal returns exceed the cost of capital.Dynex Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 695.85M | 533.52M | 318.03M | 132.60M | -2.37M | 66.76M |
| Gross Profit | 695.85M | 533.52M | 318.03M | 132.60M | -2.37M | 66.76M |
| EBITDA | 900.29M | 738.23M | 427.56M | 209.32M | 186.77M | 107.93M |
| Net Income | 241.78M | 319.07M | 113.90M | -6.13M | 143.16M | 102.26M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.34B | 17.34B | 8.18B | 6.37B | 3.61B | 3.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 773.14M | 930.39M | 377.23M | 119.64M | 332.04M | 366.02M |
| Total Debt | 21.05B | 13.91B | 6.59B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 21.62B | 14.88B | 7.00B | 5.50B | 2.70B | 2.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.72B | 2.46B | 1.18B | 870.74M | 901.33M | 771.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 184.31M | 120.82M | 14.39M | 62.20M | 126.35M | 146.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 184.31M | 120.82M | 14.39M | 62.20M | 126.35M | 146.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.35B | -8.07B | -1.03B | -2.96B | -65.44M | -555.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 14.87B | 8.26B | 1.40B | 2.69B | -32.34M | 519.98M |
Dynex Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
13.61
Price Trends
13.22
Positive
13.32
Positive
12.53
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
61.79
Neutral
90.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.84, above the 50-day MA of 13.22, and above the 200-day MA of 12.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DX.
Dynex Capital Risk Analysis
Dynex Capital disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dynex Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dynex Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $1.45B | 14.00 | 6.88% | 9.89% | 3.09% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $2.93B | -7.94 | 11.05% | 14.63% | 136.94% | 117.12% | |
55 Neutral | $1.06B | 8.54 | 6.79% | 12.69% | 28.71% | -27.87% | |
54 Neutral | $2.18B | -9.09 | 11.47% | 15.06% | 67.32% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $1.15B | 4.43 | 8.85% | 11.40% | 10.43% | 59.94% | |
49 Neutral | $1.22B | ― | -19.83% | 14.29% | -6.44% | -1044.78% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
DX
Dynex Capital
13.57
3.16
30.29%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
11.04
2.45
28.60%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
17.73
4.09
29.94%
CIM
Chimera Investment
13.95
3.01
27.47%
TWO
Two Harbors
12.54
2.15
20.74%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
12.33
0.98
8.60%
Dynex Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Dynex Capital Expands ATM Equity Distribution With New Agents
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28, 2026, Dynex Capital, Inc. amended its existing at-the-market equity distribution agreement, originally established in 2018 and subsequently updated multiple times, to further refine the terms under which its common stock may be sold t...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Dynex Capital Authorizes New $350 Million Share Repurchase
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, Dynex Capital, Inc. announced that its board approved a new share repurchase program authorizing buybacks of up to $300 million of common stock and up to $50 million of preferred stock. The authorization runs through April 30, 2...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Dynex Capital Announces CFO Transition and Leadership Changes
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Dynex Capital’s board appointed longtime executive Michael Sartori as chief financial officer, elevating him from his role as head of capital markets and FPA, where he helped drive capital strategy, growth, and risk ana...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.