Starwood Property (STWD)
NYSE:STWD
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Starwood Property
(NYSE:STWD)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▲(7.50% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/08/26
The score reflects stable but uneven financials with improving cash flow, balanced by volatility and some data-confidence issues in reported operating/leverage items. The earnings call was net positive (deployment momentum, liquidity, financing wins, buyback) but tempered by dividend coverage not yet at target and ongoing nonperforming asset remediation. Valuation is supportive due to the very high yield and reasonable P/E, while technicals are neutral-to-slightly constructive.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow strength
Operating cash flow improved markedly after 2021 and free cash flow has been positive and growing in recent years. Durable cash generation supports dividend payments, buybacks and opportunistic deployments while lowering refinancing risk, giving management flexibility over the next 2–3 years.
Negative Factors
Legacy nonperforming assets
Large legacy NPAs and REO require capital, managerial focus and may realize further losses on disposition. Remediation timelines stretching into 2027 will continue to weigh on recurring earnings, reserve builds and the pace at which capital can be redeployed into higher-return assets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow strength
Operating cash flow improved markedly after 2021 and free cash flow has been positive and growing in recent years. Durable cash generation supports dividend payments, buybacks and opportunistic deployments while lowering refinancing risk, giving management flexibility over the next 2–3 years.
Read all positive factors
Starwood Property (STWD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.69B
Dividend Yield10.53%
Average Volume (3M)3.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.7
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth-7.39%
EPS Growth4.25%
CountryUS
Employees286
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.22
Shares Outstanding370,679,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,749,708
30 Day Avg. Volume3,115,010
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.85
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)3.23
P/FCF Ratio8.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue15.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.60Price Target Upside13.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.08B
Starwood Property Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States, Europe, and Australia. It operates through four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending, Infrastructure Lending, Property, and Investing and...
How the Company Makes Money
STWD primarily makes money by earning spread income and fee income from originating, acquiring, and holding predominantly senior (first mortgage) commercial real estate loans and other real estate credit investments. Key revenue and earnings drive...
Starwood Property Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The quarter demonstrated substantial operational momentum: record asset scale ($31.7B), heavy capital deployment (~$4B year-to-date including post-quarter activity), infrastructure CLO financing at tight spreads, strong servicing earnings and improved portfolio risk metrics. The company continues to resolve legacy nonaccruals and REO (over $300M resolved to date) and laid out a plan to resolve additional assets ($900M targeted in 2026 and ~$500M in 2027). Short-term headwinds included a lower reported DE ($0.39), higher-than-normal cash balances creating a drag, and near-term dilution from the newly acquired net lease platform (estimated $0.03 drag and a $0.01 one-time hedging loss). Management expects the net lease business to breakeven in 2027 and recurring earnings to reach dividend coverage later next year as cash is deployed and nonperforming assets are resolved. Given the breadth of positive operational metrics, record financing wins, liquidity position and a clear remediation plan for problem assets, the tone of the call is constructive and underscores progress toward targets despite near-term noise and expected short-term dilution.Positive Updates
Distributable Earnings and Adjusted Performance
Reported distributable earnings (DE) of $147 million, or $0.39 per share for Q1 2026; management estimates an adjusted DE of $0.47 per share after normalizing for higher-than-normal cash balances, resolution of nonperforming assets and net lease optimization.
Negative Updates
Reported DE Dilution and Cash Drag
Reported DE of $147M ($0.39) was below desired levels and was impacted by higher-than-normal cash balances (over $1 billion of cash/temporary financing), producing a cash-deployment drag (management estimated a penny or two of impact) and holding back reported earnings versus run-rate performance.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Distributable Earnings and Adjusted Performance
Reported distributable earnings (DE) of $147 million, or $0.39 per share for Q1 2026; management estimates an adjusted DE of $0.47 per share after normalizing for higher-than-normal cash balances, resolution of nonperforming assets and net lease optimization.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call emphasized near-term deployment and remediation activity and a path to restoring dividend coverage: reported distributable earnings were $147M ($0.39/share) — adjusted would have been $0.47 — and management reiterated a goal of reaching $0.48 dividend coverage, with recurring DE expected to exceed the dividend “probably late next year.” They deployed $2.5B in Q1 (including $1.5B commercial, $597M infrastructure, $128M net lease), plus $1.5B post-quarter (70% commercial), bringing undepreciated assets to a record $31.7B and nearly $4B invested year-to-date; commercial loans funded totaled $16.7B (with $1.0B of originations after quarter and $2.3B unfunded commitments), residential loans on balance $2.2B, infrastructure portfolio $3.2B (597M commitments, 567M funded, CLOs now 75% of segment debt; CLO7 $600M at SOFR+1.68%), and net lease portfolio $2.5B (Q1 purchases $128M, WA lease term 19.5 years on purchases, portfolio WALT 17.4 years, 2.5% rent escalations; straight-line rent would add $0.01 DE). Management expects Fundamental (net lease) to breakeven next year and become accretive in 2027, to resolve ~$900M of nonaccrual/REO this year and ~$500M in 2027 (over $300M already resolved), and to continue building earnings power while maintaining conservative liquidity and leverage (liquidity $1.0B, $9.4B bank availability, debt/undepreciated equity 2.59x), alongside a $400M share repurchase authorization (first $20M deployed at $17.67/share).Starwood Property Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.88B | 2.04B | 2.05B | 1.55B | 1.19B |
| Gross Profit | 1.51B | 1.76B | 1.76B | 1.25B | 739.34M |
| EBITDA | 1.84B | 1.80B | 1.90B | 1.85B | 1.03B |
| Net Income | 411.54M | 359.93M | 339.21M | 871.48M | 447.74M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 63.18B | 62.56B | 69.50B | 79.04B | 83.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 800.48M | 471.64M | 258.10M | 374.45M | 361.34M |
| Total Debt | 22.20B | 9.01B | 8.87B | 9.71B | 7.48B |
| Total Liabilities | 55.69B | 55.36B | 62.48B | 71.84B | 77.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.80B | 6.44B | 6.25B | 6.46B | 6.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 708.81M | 618.65M | 503.51M | 188.52M | -1.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 977.85M | 646.59M | 528.60M | 213.74M | -989.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.78B | 2.08B | 855.07M | -2.95B | -4.28B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.92B | -2.49B | -1.45B | 2.80B | 4.87B |
Starwood Property Technical Analysis
Positive
18.14
Price Trends
17.39
Positive
17.47
Positive
17.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
64.82
Neutral
86.93
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STWD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.35, above the 50-day MA of 17.39, and above the 200-day MA of 17.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STWD.
Starwood Property Risk Analysis
Starwood Property disclosed 107 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Starwood Property reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Starwood Property Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $6.69B | 15.65 | 6.21% | 10.53% | -7.39% | 4.25% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $12.31B | -19.02 | 12.70% | 13.98% | 35.16% | 208.36% | |
57 Neutral | $5.47B | 12.05 | 8.69% | 8.95% | 7.75% | -8.30% | |
54 Neutral | $2.18B | -9.09 | 11.47% | 15.06% | 67.32% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $1.58B | 15.24 | 4.99% | 17.27% | -15.63% | -52.87% | |
52 Neutral | $3.23B | -128.55 | 2.94% | 9.32% | -7.20% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
STWD
Starwood Property
18.05
0.86
5.02%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
10.72
3.02
39.17%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
17.55
3.38
23.88%
ABR
Arbor Realty
8.17
-1.02
-11.06%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
19.15
1.92
11.14%
RITM
Rithm Capital
9.79
-0.48
-4.69%
Starwood Property Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Starwood Property Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, at which investors elected ten directors to serve until the 2027 annual meeting and until their successors are duly chosen. The slate, which includes ch...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.