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Starwood Property
(NYSE:STWD)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(2.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
STWD scores as a moderate-risk, moderate-opportunity setup: improving cash flow and constructive earnings-call progress toward dividend coverage support the outlook, but elevated leverage (and related data inconsistency) plus weak technical momentum are meaningful offsets. The high dividend yield adds valuation support, though it is tempered by coverage not yet at target.
Positive Factors
Diversified multi-cylinder platform
Starwood’s multi-cylinder model (commercial lending, infrastructure, servicing, net lease) creates durable revenue diversification and fee streams. That breadth reduces concentration risk, lets the firm shift capital across markets, and supports cyclical resilience and recurring income over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High debt-to-equity increases interest-rate and refinancing sensitivity for a mortgage REIT. Elevated leverage constrains capital flexibility, raises funding costs if markets widen, and magnifies earnings volatility from mark-to-market moves or credit losses across the next 2–3 years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified multi-cylinder platform
Starwood’s multi-cylinder model (commercial lending, infrastructure, servicing, net lease) creates durable revenue diversification and fee streams. That breadth reduces concentration risk, lets the firm shift capital across markets, and supports cyclical resilience and recurring income over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Starwood Property (STWD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.92B
Dividend Yield12.02%
Average Volume (3M)3.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.4
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth7.65%
EPS Growth1.25%
CountryUS
Employees324
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.67
Shares Outstanding370,748,570
10 Day Avg. Volume3,505,691
30 Day Avg. Volume3,501,798
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.85
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)3.23
P/FCF Ratio8.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.63Price Target Upside18.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.13B
Starwood Property Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending; Infrastructure Lending; Property; and Investing and Se...
How the Company Makes Money
STWD primarily makes money by investing in and financing real estate-related assets and earning spreads, fees, and other income associated with those activities.
1) Net interest income from lending and credit investments: A major revenue driver i...
Starwood Property Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The quarter demonstrated substantial operational momentum: record asset scale ($31.7B), heavy capital deployment (~$4B year-to-date including post-quarter activity), infrastructure CLO financing at tight spreads, strong servicing earnings and improved portfolio risk metrics. The company continues to resolve legacy nonaccruals and REO (over $300M resolved to date) and laid out a plan to resolve additional assets ($900M targeted in 2026 and ~$500M in 2027). Short-term headwinds included a lower reported DE ($0.39), higher-than-normal cash balances creating a drag, and near-term dilution from the newly acquired net lease platform (estimated $0.03 drag and a $0.01 one-time hedging loss). Management expects the net lease business to breakeven in 2027 and recurring earnings to reach dividend coverage later next year as cash is deployed and nonperforming assets are resolved. Given the breadth of positive operational metrics, record financing wins, liquidity position and a clear remediation plan for problem assets, the tone of the call is constructive and underscores progress toward targets despite near-term noise and expected short-term dilution.Positive Updates
Distributable Earnings and Adjusted Performance
Reported distributable earnings (DE) of $147 million, or $0.39 per share for Q1 2026; management estimates an adjusted DE of $0.47 per share after normalizing for higher-than-normal cash balances, resolution of nonperforming assets and net lease optimization.
Negative Updates
Reported DE Dilution and Cash Drag
Reported DE of $147M ($0.39) was below desired levels and was impacted by higher-than-normal cash balances (over $1 billion of cash/temporary financing), producing a cash-deployment drag (management estimated a penny or two of impact) and holding back reported earnings versus run-rate performance.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Distributable Earnings and Adjusted Performance
Reported distributable earnings (DE) of $147 million, or $0.39 per share for Q1 2026; management estimates an adjusted DE of $0.47 per share after normalizing for higher-than-normal cash balances, resolution of nonperforming assets and net lease optimization.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call emphasized near-term deployment and remediation activity and a path to restoring dividend coverage: reported distributable earnings were $147M ($0.39/share) — adjusted would have been $0.47 — and management reiterated a goal of reaching $0.48 dividend coverage, with recurring DE expected to exceed the dividend “probably late next year.” They deployed $2.5B in Q1 (including $1.5B commercial, $597M infrastructure, $128M net lease), plus $1.5B post-quarter (70% commercial), bringing undepreciated assets to a record $31.7B and nearly $4B invested year-to-date; commercial loans funded totaled $16.7B (with $1.0B of originations after quarter and $2.3B unfunded commitments), residential loans on balance $2.2B, infrastructure portfolio $3.2B (597M commitments, 567M funded, CLOs now 75% of segment debt; CLO7 $600M at SOFR+1.68%), and net lease portfolio $2.5B (Q1 purchases $128M, WA lease term 19.5 years on purchases, portfolio WALT 17.4 years, 2.5% rent escalations; straight-line rent would add $0.01 DE). Management expects Fundamental (net lease) to breakeven next year and become accretive in 2027, to resolve ~$900M of nonaccrual/REO this year and ~$500M in 2027 (over $300M already resolved), and to continue building earnings power while maintaining conservative liquidity and leverage (liquidity $1.0B, $9.4B bank availability, debt/undepreciated equity 2.59x), alongside a $400M share repurchase authorization (first $20M deployed at $17.67/share).Starwood Property Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.02B | 1.88B | 2.04B | 2.05B | 1.55B | 1.19B |
| Gross Profit | 1.68B | 1.51B | 1.76B | 1.76B | 1.25B | 739.34M |
| EBITDA | 1.77B | 1.84B | 1.80B | 1.90B | 1.85B | 1.03B |
| Net Income | 227.91M | 411.54M | 359.93M | 339.21M | 871.48M | 447.74M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 61.05B | 63.18B | 62.56B | 69.50B | 79.04B | 83.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 770.42M | 587.76M | 471.64M | 258.10M | 374.45M | 361.34M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 22.09B | 9.01B | 8.87B | 9.71B | 7.48B |
| Total Liabilities | 54.19B | 55.69B | 55.36B | 62.48B | 71.84B | 77.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.50B | 6.80B | 6.44B | 6.25B | 6.46B | 6.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 488.69M | 708.81M | 618.65M | 503.51M | 188.52M | -1.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.18B | 977.85M | 646.59M | 528.60M | 213.74M | -989.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.28B | -3.78B | 2.08B | 855.07M | -2.95B | -4.28B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.25B | 2.92B | -2.49B | -1.45B | 2.80B | 4.87B |
Starwood Property Technical Analysis
Neutral
16.52
Price Trends
16.45
Positive
16.75
Negative
16.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
51.02
Neutral
48.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STWD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.46, above the 50-day MA of 16.45, and below the 200-day MA of 16.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for STWD.
Starwood Property Risk Analysis
Starwood Property disclosed 107 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Starwood Property reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Starwood Property Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $12.24B | 5.41 | 18.30% | 13.60% | 133.36% | 486.52% | |
62 Neutral | $2.33B | 4.42 | 18.52% | 17.70% | 34.24% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $5.92B | 15.37 | 3.40% | 11.62% | 7.65% | 1.25% | |
60 Neutral | $5.52B | 16.20 | 5.55% | 10.96% | 7.55% | -53.30% | |
55 Neutral | $963.73M | 33.18 | 1.99% | 21.44% | -6.84% | -91.15% | |
48 Neutral | $2.45B | 181.75 | 0.45% | 11.26% | -3.93% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
STWD
Starwood Property
16.45
-1.41
-7.88%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
10.84
2.60
31.52%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
16.68
3.53
26.80%
ABR
Arbor Realty
5.35
-5.09
-48.75%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
14.15
-2.91
-17.04%
RITM
Rithm Capital
10.19
-0.93
-8.36%
Starwood Property Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Starwood Property Trust Prices $500 Million Senior Notes
Positive
Jul 10, 2026
On July 10, 2026, Starwood Property Trust closed a private offering of $500 million in 5.875% senior unsecured notes due August 15, 2029, sold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A and to non-U.S. investors under Regulation S. The note...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Starwood Property Trust Prices $500 Million Green Notes
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. announced it had priced a private offering of $500 million in 5.875% unsecured senior notes due 2029, at par, with settlement expected on July 10, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. The n...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Starwood Property Trust Launches Sustainability-Linked Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Starwood Property Trust announced a private offering of $500 million in unsecured senior notes due 2029, structured as sustainability bonds and sold to qualified institutional buyers and certain non-U.S. investors. The notes will...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Starwood Property Issues $600 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. closed a private offering of $600 million of 6.125% senior unsecured notes due June 1, 2031, sold to qualified institutional buyers and certain offshore investors. The notes, which pay interest semi-a...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Starwood Property Trust Prices $600 Million Green Notes
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. priced a $600 million private offering of 6.125% unsecured senior notes due 2031, issued at par and scheduled to settle on May 26, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. The notes were sold to...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Starwood Property Trust Launches $600 Million Sustainability Bonds
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. launched a private offering of $600 million in unsecured senior notes due 2031, structured as sustainability bonds aimed at funding eligible green and social projects. The notes are being placed with ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.