Rithm Capital (RITM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.83B
• Dividend Yield: 9.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 26.69%
• EPS Growth: 9.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,045
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 530,292,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,911,530
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,424,573
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.94
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.71
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.91
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.07
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -342.71
• 1Y Price Target: $15.25
• Price Target Upside: 38.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(4.64% Upside)

Rithm Capital's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with notable cash flow concerns and operational challenges. Despite these issues, the company's valuation is attractive, and recent earnings call highlights suggest potential growth through strategic acquisitions. Technical indicators, however, show a lack of upward momentum, contributing to a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisitions

These acquisitions expand Rithm's asset management capabilities and diversify its portfolio, enhancing long-term growth potential and market presence.

Revenue Growth

Exceeding revenue expectations indicates strong business performance and effective strategic execution, supporting sustainable growth.

Increased Cash and Liquidity

High liquidity provides financial flexibility to seize new opportunities and weather economic uncertainties, supporting long-term stability.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Concerns

Negative cash flow can limit Rithm's ability to invest in growth opportunities and meet financial obligations, posing a risk to long-term operations.

Margin Pressure

Declining margins suggest cost pressures and competitive challenges, potentially impacting profitability and operational efficiency.

High Liabilities

Elevated liabilities may strain Rithm's financial stability, limiting its ability to leverage new opportunities and manage economic downturns.

Rithm Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rithm Capital (RITM) is a diversified real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on acquiring, financing, and managing a portfolio of mortgage loans, mortgage-related assets, and other real estate investments. The company operates primarily in the residential mortgage sector, leveraging its expertise to create value through strategic investments and asset management. Rithm Capital aims to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for its investors by capitalizing on market opportunities and optimizing the performance of its asset portfolio.

How the Company Makes Money

Rithm Capital generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from interest income on its mortgage loans and mortgage-related assets. The company earns interest from the loans it originates or acquires, as well as from the servicing of these loans. Additionally, Rithm Capital may generate income through asset management fees, which are charged for managing investment portfolios on behalf of third-party clients. The company also benefits from gains on sales of assets, as well as potential dividends from investments in other real estate-related entities. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and mortgage servicers further enhance its revenue-generating capabilities, allowing for a diversified income stream that can adapt to market conditions.

Rithm Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Rithm Capital exhibits a mixed financial performance. The income statement shows reasonable growth and profitability with a net profit margin of 35% and a revenue growth rate of 9.4%. However, operational challenges are evident with fluctuating EBIT margins. The balance sheet highlights moderate leverage but potential risks due to high liabilities. Cash flow concerns are notable with negative free cash flow, indicating liquidity issues. Overall, while there are growth prospects, financial stability and cash generation remain areas of concern.

Income Statement

Rithm Capital's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 52%, indicating decent profitability. However, the net profit margin stands at 35%, highlighting significant costs or expenses. The revenue growth rate from 2024 to 2025 TTM is about 9.4%, showing positive revenue expansion after a decline from 2023 to 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins for TTM are 3.3% and 69.2% respectively, suggesting strong operational efficiency particularly in EBITDA terms. Overall, while profitability metrics show some strengths, the variability in EBIT reflects potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Rithm Capital's balance sheet reveals some concerns. The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.54 in TTM, which is relatively moderate, suggesting a balanced capital structure. The return on equity (ROE) for TTM is 9.02%, indicating moderate returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is about 17.2%, reflecting a lower reliance on equity financing. Despite a solid equity base, the high total liabilities compared to assets could pose risks, affecting the financial stability of the company.

Cash Flow

The cash flow performance of Rithm Capital is challenging. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative in TTM, indicating cash flow issues despite reported profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, reflecting difficulties in generating cash from operations. The free cash flow growth rate from 2024 to TTM is 48.6%, showing improvement but still in negative territory, suggesting ongoing cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.46B	1.83B	3.76B	3.82B	3.04B	-21.34M
Gross Profit	2.16B	690.98M	2.97B	2.58B	1.92B	-131.55M
EBITDA	-114.17M	3.13B	2.18B	2.06B	1.42B	0.00
Net Income	786.83M	931.50M	622.26M	954.52M	772.23M	-1.36B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	44.32B	46.05B	39.72B	32.48B	39.74B	33.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.60B	11.17B	267.50K	2.15B	10.73B	15.19B
Total Debt	4.13B	35.54B	26.96B	21.90B	29.78B	25.73B
Total Liabilities	36.00B	38.16B	32.62B	25.47B	30.22B	27.82B
Stockholders Equity	7.95B	7.79B	7.01B	6.94B	6.60B	5.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-126.97M	-2.32B	693.60M	6.87B	2.86B	1.32B
Operating Cash Flow	-121.07M	-2.19B	693.60M	6.87B	2.88B	1.86B
Investing Cash Flow	-417.11M	-2.43B	216.72M	198.25M	2.31B	8.65B
Financing Cash Flow	1.13B	4.83B	-842.55M	-6.98B	-4.74B	-10.11B

Rithm Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 10.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RITM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.87, below the 50-day MA of 11.48, and below the 200-day MA of 11.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RITM.

Rithm Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABR	―	$2.22B	13.07	7.09%	12.64%	-17.43%	-37.71%
STWD	―	$6.65B	16.80	5.73%	10.60%	-15.07%	-1.00%
Sector *	―	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
BXMT	―	$3.22B	―	2.88%	10.16%	-18.22%	―
RITM	―	$5.83B	8.46	10.13%	9.10%	26.69%	9.10%
AGNC	―	$10.53B	15.28	7.94%	14.40%	731.18%	-53.65%
ARI	―	$1.39B	―	-0.35%	10.01%	-26.29%	-342.06%

Rithm Capital Corporate Events

Rithm Capital Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Rithm Capital Corp. is a global asset manager specializing in credit and real estate assets, with a focus on innovation and growth across various market segments. The company operates through subsidiaries like Newrez, Genesis Capital, and Sculptor Capital Management, offering a unique owner-operator model for managing debt and equity investments.

Rithm Capital Updates Certificate of Designations

Rithm Capital has incorporated information regarding the Certificate of Designations into their current report on Form 8-K, as referenced in Item 5.03. This action reflects a procedural update in their reporting requirements, potentially affecting how stakeholders access and interpret the company’s regulatory filings.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.

Rithm Capital Announces $750 Million Stock Offering

On September 22, 2025, Rithm Capital entered into a Distribution Agreement with several financial institutions to sell up to $750 million worth of common stock through an at-the-market equity offering program. This strategic move, facilitated by a registration statement and a prospectus supplement filed with the SEC, aims to bolster the company’s financial standing and market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.

Rithm Capital’s New Underwriting Agreement with Morgan Stanley

On September 18, 2025, Rithm Capital Corp. entered into an underwriting agreement with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC to sell 7,600,000 shares of its 8.750% Series E Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, with an option for the underwriters to purchase an additional 1,140,000 shares. The offering, expected to close on September 25, 2025, aims to raise funds for investments and general corporate purposes, reflecting the company’s strategic financial maneuvers and potentially impacting its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.

Rithm Capital Announces Acquisition of Paramount Group

On September 17, 2025, Rithm Capital announced a definitive agreement to acquire Paramount Group for approximately $1.6 billion. This acquisition will provide Rithm with a substantial Class A office portfolio in key markets, enhancing its commercial real estate footprint and asset management capabilities. The transaction, expected to close in late Q4 2025, will be funded through a mix of cash and liquidity from Rithm’s balance sheet, with potential co-investor opportunities. The merger is anticipated to create new investment opportunities and strengthen Rithm’s position in the commercial real estate market, with the support of Paramount’s high-quality office assets and management expertise.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.

Rithm Capital Announces Acquisition of Crestline Management

On September 4, 2025, Rithm Capital Corp. announced a definitive agreement to acquire Crestline Management L.P., an alternative investment manager with $17 billion in assets under management. This strategic acquisition is set to significantly enhance Rithm’s asset management platform by adding insurance and reinsurance capabilities, expanding its direct lending and fund liquidity solutions, and increasing its total investable assets to $98 billion. The transaction, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, will maintain Crestline’s existing operations and investment strategies, while creating new opportunities for growth and value creation for investors and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.

Rithm Capital Registers Shares for Equity Offering

Rithm Capital Corp. recently resolved a legal dispute involving allegations that its board composition violated its corporate charter. The company denied the allegations but agreed to pay $160,000 in attorneys’ fees to avoid further litigation. Additionally, Rithm Capital filed a prospectus supplement with the SEC to register shares under its Nonqualified Stock Option and Incentive Award Plan and amended its Distribution Agreement to sell common stock worth up to $500 million through an at-the-market equity offering program.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.