Rithm Capital (RITM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.64B
• Dividend Yield: 8.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: -1.07%
• EPS Growth: 47.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,045
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.74
• Shares Outstanding: 555,892,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,182,078
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,412,985
• PEG Ratio: -0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.08
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.85
• 1Y Price Target: $14.50
• Price Target Upside: 41.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.33B

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(7.63% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is held back mainly by volatile financial performance and weak/negative recent cash flow trends, alongside bearish technical positioning below key moving averages. Offsetting these risks are an attractive valuation profile (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a generally constructive management outlook focused on growth and efficiency, with supportive but execution-sensitive corporate actions.

Positive Factors

Scale and diversification of AUM

Managing >$100B creates durable diversification between fee-bearing asset management and balance-sheet businesses. Scale enhances fundraising access, fee income resilience, and institutional credibility, reducing sole reliance on volatile mortgage spreads and supporting steady growth of recurring fees over months.

High mortgage platform profitability (NewRez)

Material pretax earnings from NewRez reflect a durable operating earnings engine distinct from fair-value noise. Strong platform pretax income supports internal capital formation, underpins ROE, and provides repeatable cash flow from origination and servicing that can scale with modest volume growth.

Tech partnerships driving structural efficiency

Strategic tech stakes and integrations increase underwriting and servicing throughput while lowering per-loan costs. Durable efficiency gains expand capacity without linear SG&A growth, improving long-term margins and enabling higher origination throughput and servicing profitability as partnerships scale.

Negative Factors

Weak and inconsistent cash generation

Recent negative or immaterial reported cash flow indicates earnings are not reliably converting to cash. This raises funding dependence on borrowing and equity/preferred issuance for investments or dividends, increasing refinancing risk and constraining capital allocation flexibility across a 2-6 month horizon.

Revenue volatility and 2025 margin deterioration

A dramatic revenue decline and negative gross profit highlight earnings volatility tied to portfolio mix, fair-value swings, and origination dynamics. Such swings undermine predictability for dividend coverage and planning, making near-term earnings cadence and reinvestment decisions more uncertain.

MSR mark-to-market & prepayment sensitivity

MSR valuations and income are structurally sensitive to interest rates and prepayment behavior, producing recurring GAAP volatility and hedging costs. Persistent MTM swings can strain regulatory capital, create earnings unpredictability, and force defensive funding actions during adverse rate moves.

Rithm Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rithm Capital Corp. provides capital and services to the real estate and financial services sectors in the United States. Its investment portfolio comprises mortgage servicing related assets, residential securities and loans, and consumer loans. It qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. The company generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as New Residential Investment Corp. and changed its name to Rithm Capital Corp. in August 2022. Rithm Capital Corp. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Rithm Capital generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from interest income on its mortgage loans and mortgage-related assets. The company earns interest from the loans it originates or acquires, as well as from the servicing of these loans. Additionally, Rithm Capital may generate income through asset management fees, which are charged for managing investment portfolios on behalf of third-party clients. The company also benefits from gains on sales of assets, as well as potential dividends from investments in other real estate-related entities. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and mortgage servicers further enhance its revenue-generating capabilities, allowing for a diversified income stream that can adapt to market conditions.

Rithm Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has been positive in recent years and leverage improved materially in 2025, but results are highly volatile (sharp 2025 revenue decline, negative gross profit) and cash generation is a key weakness with negative operating cash flow in 2024 and $0 reported operating/free cash flow in 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability is positive in most years with strong net income in 2024 ($932M) and 2025 ($681M), but results are volatile. Revenue fell sharply in 2025 (-77.5% YoY) and gross profit turned negative, while operating profitability metrics are inconsistent (including negative EBITDA margin in 2025). After a large loss in 2020, earnings recovered, but the recent revenue/margin swing lowers confidence in earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

Equity base is sizable ($8.95B in 2025) and leverage improved materially in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.56 vs. ~3–4+ in 2021–2024). That said, the capital structure has historically been highly levered (peaking near ~4.8 debt-to-equity in 2020), which is a key risk for a mortgage REIT in changing rate/credit conditions. Total assets grew over time, but the large debt swings indicate balance-sheet volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent and recently weak: operating cash flow was negative in 2024 (-$2.19B) and both operating and free cash flow are reported at $0 in 2025 (with free cash flow growth at -100%). While 2021–2023 showed positive cash flow (and 2022 was particularly strong), the sharp deterioration over the last two reported periods raises concerns about cash earnings quality and funding needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.69B	4.74B	3.76B	1.67B	2.90B
Gross Profit	5.14B	4.47B	3.58B	1.03B	2.55B
EBITDA	1.35B	3.13B	2.18B	2.06B	1.42B
Net Income	681.45M	931.50M	622.26M	954.52M	772.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	53.07B	46.05B	39.72B	32.48B	39.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.85B	11.17B	9.82B	9.29B	10.73B
Total Debt	39.62B	32.79B	26.96B	23.01B	29.78B
Total Liabilities	43.81B	38.16B	32.62B	25.47B	33.07B
Stockholders Equity	8.43B	7.79B	7.01B	6.94B	6.60B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-2.32B	693.60M	5.75B	2.86B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-2.19B	693.60M	5.75B	2.88B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-2.43B	216.72M	132.90M	2.31B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.17B	4.83B	-842.55M	-5.82B	-4.74B

Rithm Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RITM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.73, below the 50-day MA of 11.09, and below the 200-day MA of 11.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RITM.

Rithm Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
STWD	64 Neutral	$6.55B	16.85	5.34%	10.53%	-13.19%	-11.26%
ABR	63 Neutral	$1.43B	9.32	6.43%	17.27%	-18.13%	-40.87%
AGNC	61 Neutral	$12.54B	7.67	15.08%	13.98%	729.50%	-53.65%
ARI	60 Neutral	$1.49B	13.20	6.66%	9.89%	0.29%	―
RITM	55 Neutral	$5.64B	9.77	8.24%	8.95%	-1.07%	47.50%
BXMT	55 Neutral	$3.27B	30.19	3.01%	9.32%	-18.22%	―

Rithm Capital Corporate Events

Rithm Capital Files Procedural Certificate of Designations Update

The filing from Rithm Capital contains only a brief procedural statement indicating that information regarding a Certificate of Designations disclosed in one section of a regulatory report is incorporated by reference into another section, without providing substantive new details about the company’s operations, financial position, or strategic direction. As a result, the disclosure has no clear immediate implications for stakeholders beyond signaling a standard technical cross-reference within the company’s regulatory documentation.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.

Rithm Capital Announces New Series F Preferred Stock Offering

On January 13, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate led by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC to issue 10,000,000 shares of its 8.750% Series F Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, with a liquidation preference of $25.00 per share, and granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,500,000 shares; the offering, conducted under an existing shelf registration and documented in a prospectus supplement, is expected to close on January 21, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions, representations, warranties and indemnification provisions. Rithm Capital plans to use the net proceeds from this preferred stock offering for investments and general corporate purposes, a move that should bolster its capital base and financial flexibility, while continuing its long-standing relationships with the underwriting banks that provide it with various investment banking, financing, trading and related services and may also sell assets to the company over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.

Rithm Capital Completes Acquisition of Paramount Group REIT

On December 19, 2025, Rithm Capital completed its acquisition of Paramount Group, a vertically integrated office REIT that owns and manages Class A office properties in New York City and San Francisco, bringing 13 owned and four managed assets totaling more than 13.1 million square feet under Rithm’s control. Under the cash transaction, Paramount’s operating partnership units and common stock were converted into the right to receive $6.60 per unit or share, all compensatory equity awards were either cancelled or cashed out, and Paramount’s separate corporate existence ceased, with its operating partnership and the surviving REIT entity becoming indirect wholly owned subsidiaries of Rithm. The deal, funded with cash on hand and a $50 million equity investment from Rithm Property Trust, materially expands Rithm’s commercial real estate footprint and is intended to bolster its diversified, fully integrated asset management platform, while Paramount prepares for rebranding and leadership transition following the departure of its longtime chief executive, Albert Behler.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.

Rithm Capital Completes Acquisition of Crestline Management

On December 1, 2025, Rithm Capital Corp. announced the successful completion of its acquisition of Crestline Management, L.P. This acquisition is a strategic move to enhance Rithm’s asset management platform, which now manages approximately $102 billion in investable assets. The integration of Crestline is expected to strengthen Rithm’s position as a global asset management business, offering diverse investment opportunities to institutional and private wealth investors. The acquisition is seen as a significant milestone in Rithm’s growth strategy, with expectations of delivering enhanced performance and opportunities for clients and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.