Rithm Capital (RITM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.59B
• Dividend Yield: 8.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: -1.07%
• EPS Growth: 47.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,045
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 554,196,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,998,950
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,094,033
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.69
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.13
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.27
• 1Y Price Target: $14.92
• Price Target Upside: 25.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▼(-3.52% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weak/volatile financial performance (declining revenues, negative margins, high leverage, and inconsistent cash flow). This is partially offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield), a generally positive earnings call (strong ROE, liquidity, and growth initiatives), and neutral-to-slightly positive technical indicators.

Positive Factors

AUM and asset-management scale via Crestline acquisition

Adding Crestline materially increases fee-bearing AUM to ~ $102B, strengthening recurring management fees and diversification away from interest-sensitive mortgage spreads. Greater scale improves cross-sell, pricing power with institutional clients, and long-term revenue resiliency from asset-management fees.

Expansion into Class-A office via Paramount acquisition

Completing Paramount adds a sizable, high-quality commercial portfolio in NYC and SF, diversifying income sources and creating an integrated platform for property management and fee revenue. The move supports long-term asset diversification and potential synergies in asset management and capital deployment.

Strong quarterly earnings and liquidity

Sizable earnings and an 18% ROE demonstrate the business can generate strong shareholder returns; combined with reported $2.2B in cash and liquidity, this supports the firm’s capacity to fund acquisitions, underwrite loans, and withstand shocks while investing in growth initiatives over the medium term.

Negative Factors

High leverage on the balance sheet

Debt-to-equity consistently above 4x leaves the company highly sensitive to interest-rate moves and credit conditions. Elevated leverage reduces financial flexibility for opportunistic investments, raises refinancing risk, and increases the cost of capital, all of which pressure long-term stability.

Inconsistent cash generation; recent negative operating cash flow

Near break-even free cash flow and recent negative operating cash flow indicate limited internal funding for dividends, acquisitions, or debt reduction. Persistent weak cash conversion forces reliance on external financing or equity issuance, increasing dilution risk and undermining long-term self-funded growth.

Revenue volatility and margin pressure in mortgage segment

Declining revenues and negative margins reflect structural margin compression in mortgage operations and inconsistent origination economics. Coupled with reported drops in interest income and lower weighted-average margins, this undermines sustainable earnings power and raises execution risk across loan products.

Rithm Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rithm Capital Corp. provides capital and services to the real estate and financial services sectors in the United States. Its investment portfolio comprises mortgage servicing related assets, residential securities and loans, and consumer loans. It qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. The company generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as New Residential Investment Corp. and changed its name to Rithm Capital Corp. in August 2022. Rithm Capital Corp. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Rithm Capital generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from interest income on its mortgage loans and mortgage-related assets. The company earns interest from the loans it originates or acquires, as well as from the servicing of these loans. Additionally, Rithm Capital may generate income through asset management fees, which are charged for managing investment portfolios on behalf of third-party clients. The company also benefits from gains on sales of assets, as well as potential dividends from investments in other real estate-related entities. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and mortgage servicers further enhance its revenue-generating capabilities, allowing for a diversified income stream that can adapt to market conditions.

Rithm Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials look pressured: the income statement shows volatile results with recent revenue decline and negative margins, the balance sheet carries high leverage (debt-to-equity consistently above 4.0), and cash flows have been inconsistent with a recent negative operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Rithm Capital's income statement reveals significant volatility. The TTM data shows a drastic decline in revenue and negative margins, indicating operational challenges. Historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth rates and inconsistent profitability, with recent periods showing negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. This suggests potential operational inefficiencies and market challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio consistently above 4.0, which poses financial risk. However, the company maintains a stable equity ratio and has shown some ability to generate returns on equity, albeit with declining ROE in recent periods. The high debt levels could limit financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to interest rate changes.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows inconsistent free cash flow growth and a recent negative operating cash flow, highlighting liquidity challenges. The TTM data indicates a near break-even free cash flow to net income ratio, suggesting limited cash generation relative to net income. Historical data shows fluctuating cash flow metrics, reflecting operational and financial instability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.98B	4.74B	3.76B	1.67B	2.90B	1.45B
Gross Profit	4.61B	4.47B	3.58B	1.03B	2.55B	1.15B
EBITDA	2.45B	3.13B	2.18B	2.06B	1.42B	-565.83M
Net Income	886.63M	931.50M	622.26M	954.52M	772.23M	-1.41B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	47.17B	46.05B	39.72B	32.48B	39.74B	33.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.15B	11.17B	9.82B	2.15B	10.73B	15.19B
Total Debt	32.52B	32.79B	26.96B	21.90B	29.78B	25.73B
Total Liabilities	38.26B	38.16B	32.62B	25.47B	30.22B	27.82B
Stockholders Equity	8.50B	7.79B	7.01B	6.94B	6.60B	5.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.94B	-2.32B	693.60M	5.75B	2.86B	1.32B
Operating Cash Flow	-2.93B	-2.19B	693.60M	5.75B	2.88B	1.86B
Investing Cash Flow	884.73M	-2.43B	216.72M	132.90M	2.31B	8.65B
Financing Cash Flow	2.29B	4.83B	-842.55M	-5.82B	-4.74B	-10.11B

Rithm Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RITM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.50, above the 50-day MA of 11.30, and above the 200-day MA of 11.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RITM.

Rithm Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AGNC	66 Neutral	$12.89B	8.15	15.08%	13.98%	729.50%	-53.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ARI	65 Neutral	$1.48B	12.06	7.26%	9.89%	0.29%	―
ABR	63 Neutral	$1.51B	9.89	6.43%	17.27%	-18.13%	-40.87%
STWD	63 Neutral	$6.74B	17.34	5.34%	10.53%	-13.19%	-11.26%
BXMT	60 Neutral	$3.23B	30.95	2.88%	9.32%	-18.22%	―
RITM	56 Neutral	$6.59B	8.21	10.78%	8.95%	-1.07%	47.50%

Rithm Capital Corporate Events

Rithm Capital Announces New Series F Preferred Stock Offering

On January 13, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate led by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC to issue 10,000,000 shares of its 8.750% Series F Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, with a liquidation preference of $25.00 per share, and granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,500,000 shares; the offering, conducted under an existing shelf registration and documented in a prospectus supplement, is expected to close on January 21, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions, representations, warranties and indemnification provisions. Rithm Capital plans to use the net proceeds from this preferred stock offering for investments and general corporate purposes, a move that should bolster its capital base and financial flexibility, while continuing its long-standing relationships with the underwriting banks that provide it with various investment banking, financing, trading and related services and may also sell assets to the company over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.

Rithm Capital Completes Acquisition of Paramount Group REIT

On December 19, 2025, Rithm Capital completed its acquisition of Paramount Group, a vertically integrated office REIT that owns and manages Class A office properties in New York City and San Francisco, bringing 13 owned and four managed assets totaling more than 13.1 million square feet under Rithm’s control. Under the cash transaction, Paramount’s operating partnership units and common stock were converted into the right to receive $6.60 per unit or share, all compensatory equity awards were either cancelled or cashed out, and Paramount’s separate corporate existence ceased, with its operating partnership and the surviving REIT entity becoming indirect wholly owned subsidiaries of Rithm. The deal, funded with cash on hand and a $50 million equity investment from Rithm Property Trust, materially expands Rithm’s commercial real estate footprint and is intended to bolster its diversified, fully integrated asset management platform, while Paramount prepares for rebranding and leadership transition following the departure of its longtime chief executive, Albert Behler.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.

Rithm Capital Completes Acquisition of Crestline Management

On December 1, 2025, Rithm Capital Corp. announced the successful completion of its acquisition of Crestline Management, L.P. This acquisition is a strategic move to enhance Rithm’s asset management platform, which now manages approximately $102 billion in investable assets. The integration of Crestline is expected to strengthen Rithm’s position as a global asset management business, offering diverse investment opportunities to institutional and private wealth investors. The acquisition is seen as a significant milestone in Rithm’s growth strategy, with expectations of delivering enhanced performance and opportunities for clients and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (RITM) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rithm Capital stock, see the RITM Stock Forecast page.