Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)
NYSE:RITM
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Rithm Capital
(NYSE:RITM)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-6.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/22/26
The score is held back primarily by weak recent cash flow and high leverage, which increase sensitivity to funding/market conditions. Technicals also remain bearish (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include an attractive income profile (high dividend yield with a moderate P/E) and a generally positive earnings call with specific growth/efficiency targets and solid business-line performance.
Positive Factors
Diversified owner-operator model
Rithm’s mix of mortgage servicing, originations and asset-management platforms creates multiple, complementary revenue streams. Fee income from servicing and asset management cushions interest-rate and spread cycles, while origination and securitization activity enable scale and capital deployment optionality over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A stretched capital structure increases sensitivity to funding costs, margin compression and market dislocations. High debt levels constrain strategic flexibility, raise refinancing and covenant risk, and amplify earnings volatility from fair‑value marks or prepayment shifts across mortgage assets over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified owner-operator model
Rithm’s mix of mortgage servicing, originations and asset-management platforms creates multiple, complementary revenue streams. Fee income from servicing and asset management cushions interest-rate and spread cycles, while origination and securitization activity enable scale and capital deployment optionality over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Rithm Capital (RITM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.20B
Dividend Yield8.95%
Average Volume (3M)5.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.1
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth7.75%
EPS Growth-8.30%
CountryUS
Employees6,045
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.11
Shares Outstanding558,306,600
10 Day Avg. Volume4,881,842
30 Day Avg. Volume5,248,319
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.24
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio-8.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.44Price Target Upside32.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.03B
Rithm Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rithm Capital Corp. provides capital and services to the real estate and financial services sectors in the United States. Its investment portfolio comprises mortgage servicing related assets, residential securities and loans, and consumer loans. I...
How the Company Makes Money
Rithm primarily makes money through (1) net interest income and asset yields earned on mortgage- and real-estate-related investments financed with various forms of leverage, and (2) fee-based earnings from mortgage origination and servicing activi...
Rithm Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and financial message: core businesses delivered strong performance (NewRez pretax earnings and ROE, Genesis origination growth, asset management inflows and fee growth, Elicor leasing progress, active securitizations and investments) and management emphasized disciplined credit and opportunities from market dislocations. The primary negatives were headline‑driven volatility in private credit markets, localized leasing/market exposure in San Francisco, some margin normalization in lending channels, regulatory uncertainty in build‑to‑rent, and ongoing complexity/valuation headwinds. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Solid Earnings and Capital Position
Reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.51 (earnings $28.6M) with a 17% ROE; GAAP net income $57.8M ($0.12 per diluted share) with a 4% ROE. Book value ended the quarter at $7.0B ($12.51 per share). Declared $0.25 dividend (10.5% yield) and ended the quarter with approximately $1.3B of cash and liquidity.
Negative Updates
Headline‑Driven Private Credit Volatility and Retail Liquidity Concerns
Management noted sentiment-driven dislocations in private credit driven by headlines and retail behavior. Commentary highlighted redemption/liquidity limitations in some vehicles and the potential for retail-driven volatility despite no material delinquencies observed in Rithm’s credit exposures.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Earnings and Capital Position
Reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.51 (earnings $28.6M) with a 17% ROE; GAAP net income $57.8M ($0.12 per diluted share) with a 4% ROE. Book value ended the quarter at $7.0B ($12.51 per share). Declared $0.25 dividend (10.5% yield) and ended the quarter with approximately $1.3B of cash and liquidity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management provided concrete forward-looking targets and operating metrics across the platform: Genesis expects $6.5–$7.0 billion of production in 2026 with $150–$175 million of EBITDA; NewRez plans ~15% additional cost‑per‑loan reduction (targeting ~$93 direct cost per loan), a Valin servicing transition in early 2027 to realize >$65 million of annual expense savings, and Q1 NewRez results were $15.5 billion of funded volume, ~$274 million pretax income and a 19% annualized operating ROE with an ~$850 billion servicing portfolio; the firm deployed >$2 billion into corporate credit/ABF, invested ~$3 billion in mortgage assets in Q1 (~$1.4B non‑QM, $1.6B RTL), completed $2 billion of securitizations, and purchased $140 million of home‑improvement loans in the quarter (total $667M since Q3); Sculptor ended the quarter with $37 billion AUM after $600 million of gross inflows, Crestline is ≈$20 billion AUM with management fee revenue up 16% YoY, Real Estate Fund V committed $1 billion in Q1 following a $4.6 billion fundraise, and company-level results included core EPS of $0.51 (earnings $28.6M, 17% ROE), GAAP net income $57.8M ($0.12/sh, 4% ROE), book value $7.0B ($12.51/sh), a $0.25 quarterly dividend (~10.5% yield) and ~$1.3B of cash/liquidity.Rithm Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.61B | 5.69B | 4.74B | 3.76B | 1.67B | 2.90B |
| Gross Profit | 4.84B | 5.14B | 4.47B | 3.58B | 1.03B | 2.55B |
| EBITDA | 1.91B | 1.35B | 3.13B | 2.18B | 2.06B | 1.42B |
| Net Income | 727.72M | 681.45M | 931.50M | 622.26M | 954.52M | 772.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 53.37B | 53.06B | 46.05B | 39.72B | 34.59B | 39.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.69B | 7.08B | 11.17B | 9.82B | 9.29B | 10.73B |
| Total Debt | 39.77B | 39.58B | 32.79B | 26.96B | 25.33B | 31.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.87B | 43.81B | 38.16B | 32.62B | 27.58B | 33.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.61B | 8.43B | 7.79B | 7.01B | 6.94B | 6.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.46B | -762.62M | -2.32B | 693.60M | 5.75B | 2.86B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -2.46B | -762.62M | -2.19B | 693.60M | 5.75B | 2.88B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.15B | 2.24B | -2.43B | 216.72M | 132.90M | 2.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -320.12M | -602.12M | 4.83B | -842.55M | -5.82B | -4.74B |
Rithm Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
10.16
Price Trends
9.54
Negative
9.97
Negative
10.40
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.13
Positive
43.91
Neutral
73.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RITM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.44, above the 50-day MA of 9.54, and below the 200-day MA of 10.40, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RITM.
Rithm Capital Risk Analysis
Rithm Capital disclosed 113 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rithm Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rithm Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $1.46B | 12.01 | 6.88% | 9.89% | 3.09% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $6.33B | 16.39 | 5.25% | 10.53% | 7.65% | 1.25% | |
59 Neutral | $11.95B | 7.94 | 12.70% | 13.98% | 35.16% | 208.36% | |
55 Neutral | $5.20B | 7.13 | 8.69% | 8.95% | 7.75% | -8.30% | |
49 Neutral | $1.11B | 9.38 | 4.03% | 17.27% | -10.36% | -61.34% | |
49 Neutral | $3.08B | 29.83 | 2.94% | 9.32% | -7.20% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
RITM
Rithm Capital
9.32
-0.76
-7.55%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
10.41
2.74
35.65%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.96
2.16
24.52%
ABR
Arbor Realty
5.75
-2.60
-31.10%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
18.28
1.45
8.60%
STWD
Starwood Property
17.08
-0.61
-3.46%
Rithm Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Rithm Capital Shareholders Expand Incentive Plan, Back Board
Positive
May 21, 2026
At its May 21, 2026 annual meeting, Rithm Capital stockholders approved an amendment to the 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan, lifting the pool of shares available for equity awards to 69,240,000, less shares already granted after April 1, 2026. The vot...
Private Placements and Financing
Rithm Capital Completes $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Rithm Capital closed a $500 million private offering of 8.500% senior unsecured notes due June 1, 2031, which are pari passu with its other senior unsecured debt and structurally subordinated to non-guarantor subsidiaries’ o...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Rithm Capital Prices $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. announced it had priced a private offering of $500 million in 8.500% senior unsecured notes due 2031, targeting qualified institutional buyers in the U.S. and certain non-U.S. investors under Rule 144A and Regu...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Rithm Capital Plans $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. announced plans to launch a private offering of $500 million in senior unsecured notes due 2031. The alternative asset manager said it intends to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.