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Rithm Capital
(NYSE:RITM)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(20.61% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score is primarily constrained by financial quality—high leverage and persistently negative operating/free cash flow outweigh strong revenue growth and profitability. Technicals are supportive with strong trend/momentum (though overbought), valuation benefits from a high dividend yield, and the latest earnings call reinforced operational strength and efficiency plans while acknowledging market and MSR-related risks.
Positive Factors
Scale & AUM Growth
Large and rapidly growing asset base supports durable fee income and distribution economics. Scale deepens relationships, lowers marginal fundraising cost, and diversifies revenue across strategies, making asset management fees a steadier, structural earnings pillar over the next 2–24 months.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Very elevated leverage increases sensitivity to rising funding costs or asset-value declines, constraining strategic flexibility. In stressed markets high leverage can amplify losses, limit ability to buy assets opportunistically, and pressure capital allocation for dividends or growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & AUM Growth
Large and rapidly growing asset base supports durable fee income and distribution economics. Scale deepens relationships, lowers marginal fundraising cost, and diversifies revenue across strategies, making asset management fees a steadier, structural earnings pillar over the next 2–24 months.
Read all positive factors
Rithm Capital (RITM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.52B
Dividend Yield10.12%
Average Volume (3M)5.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth7.55%
EPS Growth-53.30%
CountryUS
Employees7,240
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryFinancial - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.61
Shares Outstanding558,407,040
10 Day Avg. Volume5,711,651
30 Day Avg. Volume5,279,979
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.27
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio-8.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.92Price Target Upside41.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.88B
Rithm Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) is a mortgage-focused real estate investment company/REIT that invests in, finances, and manages residential real estate and mortgage-related assets. Its activities span mortgage servicing rights and servicing-related in...
How the Company Makes Money
Rithm primarily makes money through (1) net interest income and asset yields earned on mortgage- and real-estate-related investments financed with various forms of leverage, and (2) fee-based earnings from mortgage origination and servicing activi...
Rithm Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and performance-oriented message: strong quarter-to-date results across asset management, mortgage origination/servicing (Newrez) and Genesis originations, meaningful AUM growth, improving real estate leasing and identified cost efficiencies. Management signaled cautious capital deployment on MSRs and acknowledged market volatility, compressed selling margins in origination, and some geographic leasing variability (San Francisco). Overall, the positives (scale expansion, solid earnings, efficiency wins, asset-level leasing gains and liquidity) materially outweigh the operational and market risks called out.Positive Updates
Scale of Platform and AUM Growth
Rithm now manages >$100 billion in investable assets (including balance sheet and third-party) with third-party AUM north of $60 billion. AUM has grown at a reported ~28% CAGR and management believes third-party AUM can meaningfully expand over the next 12–24 months.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility and MSR Valuation Risks
Management highlighted volatile markets and noted MSR pricing remains sensitive (described as negatively convex). Unlevered returns on MSR exposures were characterized as in the upper single digits, with limited margin for error, prompting a cautious stance on balance-sheet deployment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Scale of Platform and AUM Growth
Rithm now manages >$100 billion in investable assets (including balance sheet and third-party) with third-party AUM north of $60 billion. AUM has grown at a reported ~28% CAGR and management believes third-party AUM can meaningfully expand over the next 12–24 months.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated concrete near‑term guidance and targets across businesses: Newrez is projected to originate roughly $65 billion this year (Q2 funded volume $15.9B, up 1% QoQ) and Newrez’s co‑issue MSR acquisitions were $5B (↑45% QoQ); Genesis is expected to produce just under $7B this year (Q2 origination $1.9B) with conservative portfolio metrics (loan‑to‑after‑repair value ~63%, LTV ~68%, look‑through ~76%; mix ~50% construction/34% bridge/12% Reno; fixed/ARM ~45/55); asset management AUM stands at ~$61B third‑party and >$100B total investable assets (AUM CAGR ~28%, 71% longer‑term AUM), multi‑strat fund YTD +~8% (3‑yr ~12.3%); the MSR footprint was cited at roughly $850B–$865B and the firm has ~$1B permanent capital, ~$2.1B in cash/liquidity and book value of ~$6.9B (~$12.33/share) while paying a $0.25/share dividend (~10.6% yield). On cost and capital efficiencies, management expects the Valon transition in early 2027 to save >$65M annually (cost per loan down ~21% to ~$93; post‑integration cost projected ~50% below industry), Elecor’s 9.9M sqft core portfolio is 86.5% leased (avg in‑place rent $90/sqft, WALT 8.3 years) with YTD leasing ~681k sqft at ~$100/sqft (+21.4% vs 2025), Elecor cut ~$44M of mgmt expense and closed a $283M CMBS, and the investment portfolio completed ~$6.6B residential investments and $3.7B securitizations in H1 (annual ROE ~15%), plus a $300M home‑improvement securitization.Rithm Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.66B | 5.69B | 4.74B | 3.76B | 1.67B | 2.90B |
| Gross Profit | 4.51B | 5.14B | 4.47B | 3.58B | 1.03B | 2.55B |
| EBITDA | 1.27B | 1.35B | 3.13B | 2.18B | 2.06B | 1.47B |
| Net Income | 472.30M | 681.45M | 931.50M | 622.26M | 954.52M | 772.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 54.11B | 53.06B | 46.05B | 39.72B | 34.59B | 39.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.45B | 7.08B | 11.17B | 9.82B | 9.29B | 10.73B |
| Total Debt | 40.23B | 39.58B | 32.79B | 26.96B | 25.33B | 31.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 44.66B | 43.81B | 38.16B | 32.62B | 27.58B | 33.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.52B | 8.43B | 7.79B | 7.01B | 6.94B | 6.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.90B | -762.62M | -2.32B | 693.60M | 5.75B | 2.86B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.90B | -762.62M | -2.19B | 693.60M | 5.75B | 2.88B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.25B | 2.24B | -2.43B | 216.72M | 132.90M | 2.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 570.82M | -602.12M | 4.83B | -842.55M | -5.82B | -4.74B |
Rithm Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
9.12
Price Trends
9.24
Positive
9.25
Positive
9.75
Positive
Market Momentum
0.27
Negative
66.28
Neutral
82.14
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RITM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.56, below the 50-day MA of 9.24, and below the 200-day MA of 9.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RITM.
Rithm Capital Risk Analysis
Rithm Capital disclosed 113 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rithm Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rithm Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $12.24B | 5.41 | 18.30% | 13.60% | 133.36% | 486.52% | |
60 Neutral | $5.52B | 16.20 | 5.55% | 10.96% | 7.55% | -53.30% | |
60 Neutral | $5.92B | 15.37 | 3.40% | 11.62% | 7.65% | 1.25% | |
55 Neutral | $963.73M | 33.18 | 1.99% | 21.44% | -6.84% | -91.15% | |
52 Neutral | $866.87M | 8.28 | 6.88% | 42.82% | 3.09% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $2.45B | 181.75 | 0.45% | 11.26% | -3.93% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
RITM
Rithm Capital
10.19
-0.93
-8.36%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
10.84
2.60
31.52%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
6.76
0.77
12.82%
ABR
Arbor Realty
5.35
-5.09
-48.75%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
14.15
-2.91
-17.04%
STWD
Starwood Property
16.45
-1.41
-7.88%
Rithm Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Rithm Capital Shareholders Expand Incentive Plan, Back Board
Positive
May 21, 2026
At its May 21, 2026 annual meeting, Rithm Capital stockholders approved an amendment to the 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan, lifting the pool of shares available for equity awards to 69,240,000, less shares already granted after April 1, 2026. The vot...
Private Placements and Financing
Rithm Capital Completes $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Rithm Capital closed a $500 million private offering of 8.500% senior unsecured notes due June 1, 2031, which are pari passu with its other senior unsecured debt and structurally subordinated to non-guarantor subsidiaries’ o...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Rithm Capital Prices $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. announced it had priced a private offering of $500 million in 8.500% senior unsecured notes due 2031, targeting qualified institutional buyers in the U.S. and certain non-U.S. investors under Rule 144A and Regu...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Rithm Capital Plans $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. announced plans to launch a private offering of $500 million in senior unsecured notes due 2031. The alternative asset manager said it intends to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.