Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)
NYSE:RITM
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Rithm Capital
(NYSE:RITM)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(0.60% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/04/26
The score is held back mainly by volatile financial performance and weak/negative recent cash flow trends, alongside bearish technical positioning below key moving averages. Offsetting these risks are an attractive valuation profile (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a generally constructive management outlook focused on growth and efficiency, with supportive but execution-sensitive corporate actions.
Positive Factors
AUM scale & diversification
Managing >$100B provides durable revenue diversification across fee-bearing asset management and balance-sheet strategies. Scale supports distribution, cross-selling, and institutional access to capital, reducing single-channel dependency and enabling middle-term growth in fee income and platform resilience.
Negative Factors
Weak operating cash flow
Inconsistent cash generation undermines financial flexibility and heightens reliance on capital markets and preferred issuances. Persistent weak operating cash flow limits the company's ability to fund dividends, buy assets opportunistically, or absorb MSR mark swings without dilutive or costly financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AUM scale & diversification
Managing >$100B provides durable revenue diversification across fee-bearing asset management and balance-sheet strategies. Scale supports distribution, cross-selling, and institutional access to capital, reducing single-channel dependency and enabling middle-term growth in fee income and platform resilience.
Read all positive factors
Rithm Capital (RITM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.53B
Dividend Yield8.95%
Average Volume (3M)13.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth-1.07%
EPS Growth47.50%
CountryUS
Employees6,045
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding555,892,400
10 Day Avg. Volume6,785,735
30 Day Avg. Volume13,770,519
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.24
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio-8.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.06Price Target Upside41.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.33B
Rithm Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rithm Capital Corp. provides capital and services to the real estate and financial services sectors in the United States. Its investment portfolio comprises mortgage servicing related assets, residential securities and loans, and consumer loans. I...
How the Company Makes Money
Rithm Capital makes money primarily through a combination of (1) investment income from mortgage and credit assets and (2) operating income from mortgage-related platforms.
1) Investment income from mortgage/credit portfolios:
- Net interest inco...
Rithm Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial positives: meaningful AUM scale, double-digit EAD growth, robust mortgage platform profitability (NewRez), rapid origination expansion (Genesis), strategic asset-management acquisitions (Crestline, Sculptor momentum), and opportunistic real-estate acquisition (Paramount) with encouraging leasing activity. Noted challenges included MSR mark-to-market volatility and seasonal delinquency pressure driven partly by FHA modification rules, localized softness in San Francisco occupancy, competitive pressure on origination margins, and some recent equity-price volatility. On balance, the breadth and magnitude of the highlights (revenue and earnings growth, scale, strategic partnerships, tech upgrades, and successful acquisitions) outweigh the lowlights, which are largely operational/rate-driven and being actively managed.Positive Updates
Scale of Platform
Firm now manages over $100 billion of investable assets across the platform (Rithm Asset Management AUM $63B; Rithm balance sheet business $53B), reflecting meaningful scale and diversification.
Negative Updates
MSR Mark-to-Market and GAAP Noise
Q4 included a conservative MSR mark that reduced GAAP quarterly income relative to the full year, contributing to quarter-to-year GAAP variance and indicating mark-to-market volatility in MSR valuations.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Scale of Platform
Firm now manages over $100 billion of investable assets across the platform (Rithm Asset Management AUM $63B; Rithm balance sheet business $53B), reflecting meaningful scale and diversification.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance centered on 2026 calls for modest volume growth and tech-driven efficiency: NewRez expects funded volumes to rise (2025 funded $63B, Q4 $18.8B) and management’s internal forecast is roughly +10% for 2026 origination volume, supported by a tightened mortgage basis, a likely steepening yield curve and potential GSE Agency MBS purchases (company estimate up to ~$155B of 2026 purchases versus headlines up to $200B), which should drive higher amortization and more origination gains; Baron also noted HomeVision has already doubled underwriting capacity and Valon (servicing OS) plus HomeVision equity stakes should materially improve efficiency (Valon platform transition targeted for 2027, Wells/Onity MSR onboarding begins in March). They expect MSR mark-to-market volatility to normalize in Q1 as rates move, plan to grow recapture from their ~4 million homeowners, and will continue disciplined origination (NewRez pretax income excl. MTM ~$1.1B in 2025, +17% YoY; 2025 ROE 20%). On the asset-management/real-estate side they will keep raising capital prudently (firm AUM >$100B: Rithm AM $63B, balance-sheet business $53B; Sculptor AUM up to $38B after $5.8B gross inflows; Crestline ~$18B AUM) while capital-forming around Paramount (13M sqft, acquisition basis $585/sqft, going-in cap rate 7%, core leased occupancy 86.9%); balance-sheet liquidity stands at $1.7B with ~ $8.5B permanent capital, and corporate targets remain focused on growing EAD and FRE (2025 EAD $2.35/sh, ~ $1.3B full-year, 19% ROE; GAAP net income $567M, $1.04/sh).Rithm Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.69B | 4.74B | 3.76B | 1.67B | 2.90B |
| Gross Profit | 5.14B | 4.47B | 3.58B | 1.03B | 2.55B |
| EBITDA | 1.35B | 3.13B | 2.18B | 2.06B | 1.42B |
| Net Income | 681.45M | 931.50M | 622.26M | 954.52M | 772.23M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 53.07B | 46.05B | 39.72B | 32.48B | 39.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.85B | 11.17B | 9.82B | 9.29B | 10.73B |
| Total Debt | 39.62B | 32.79B | 26.96B | 23.01B | 29.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.81B | 38.16B | 32.62B | 25.47B | 33.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.43B | 7.79B | 7.01B | 6.94B | 6.60B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -762.62M | -2.32B | 693.60M | 5.75B | 2.86B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -762.62M | -2.19B | 693.60M | 5.75B | 2.88B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.24B | -2.43B | 216.72M | 132.90M | 2.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -602.12M | 4.83B | -842.55M | -5.82B | -4.74B |
Rithm Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
9.94
Price Trends
9.72
Positive
10.29
Negative
10.63
Negative
Market Momentum
0.07
Negative
65.22
Neutral
93.96
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RITM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.24, above the 50-day MA of 9.72, and below the 200-day MA of 10.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RITM.
Rithm Capital Risk Analysis
Rithm Capital disclosed 113 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rithm Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rithm Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $6.55B | 14.75 | 6.21% | 10.53% | -13.19% | -11.26% | |
61 Neutral | $11.76B | 3.06 | 15.10% | 13.98% | 729.50% | -53.65% | |
60 Neutral | $1.51B | 10.61 | 6.83% | 9.89% | 0.29% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $5.53B | 9.03 | 8.35% | 8.95% | -1.07% | 47.50% | |
55 Neutral | $3.31B | 29.85 | 3.05% | 9.32% | -18.22% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $1.45B | 15.24 | 4.99% | 17.27% | -18.13% | -40.87% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
RITM
Rithm Capital
10.09
0.87
9.38%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
10.52
3.24
44.53%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
11.08
3.54
46.87%
ABR
Arbor Realty
7.70
-1.88
-19.66%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
19.78
3.15
18.93%
STWD
Starwood Property
17.82
1.19
7.18%
Rithm Capital Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rithm Capital Files Procedural Certificate of Designations Update
Neutral
Jan 21, 2026
The filing from Rithm Capital contains only a brief procedural statement indicating that information regarding a Certificate of Designations disclosed in one section of a regulatory report is incorporated by reference into another section, without...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Rithm Capital Announces New Series F Preferred Stock Offering
Positive
Jan 14, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate led by Morgan Stanley Co. LLC to issue 10,000,000 shares of its 8.750% Series F Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, with a liquid...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.