Arbor Realty (ABR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.06B
• Dividend Yield: 16.01%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.50M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: -11.26%
• EPS Growth: -33.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 659
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 1.14
• Shares Outstanding: 192,161,710
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,070,761
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,501,234
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $11.92
• Price Target Upside: 10.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

Arbor Realty's stock score is driven by strong profitability and an attractive valuation, with a high dividend yield and low P/E ratio. However, technical indicators show bearish trends, and the earnings call highlighted both strategic improvements and significant risks, such as increased delinquencies and interest rate challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Nonperforming loans appear manageable given the strength of Arbor’s balance sheet.

Return on Investment

Investors could realize a potential total return of approximately 36%, including an 11.0% cash yield, if price target and dividend projections are achieved.

Negative Factors

Earnings Outlook

The increase in interest rates and the higher-for-longer rate outlook has created headwinds for ABR’s business, which will be a drag on earnings over the next 12-24 months.

Interest Rates Impact

Agency lending volumes are pressured by higher interest rates.

Arbor Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. It primarily invests in bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, and preferred and direct equity, as well as real estate-related joint ventures, real estate-related notes, and various mortgage-related securities. The company offers bridge financing products to borrowers who seek short-term capital to be used in an acquisition of property; financing by making preferred equity investments in entities that directly or indirectly own real property; mezzanine financing in the form of loans that are subordinate to a conventional first mortgage loan and senior to the borrower's equity in a transaction; junior participation financing in the form of a junior participating interest in the senior debt; and financing products to borrowers who are looking to acquire conventional, workforce, and affordable single-family housing. Further, it underwrites, originates, sells, and services multifamily mortgage loans through conduit/commercial mortgage-backed securities programs. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Uniondale, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Arbor Realty Trust primarily makes money through interest income generated from its loan portfolio, which includes a variety of structured finance products such as bridge loans and mezzanine financing. Additionally, the company earns revenue through servicing and managing loans, which provides a steady stream of fee income. Arbor also profits from equity investments and gains from the sale of loans. The company's strong relationships with government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as its partnerships with various banks and financial institutions, further support its revenue generation by expanding its lending capacity and market reach.

Arbor Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Arbor Realty's financial performance is mixed. While the income statement shows volatility and a concerning negative gross profit margin, the company maintains profitability. The balance sheet is strong with decreased debt-to-equity ratio and substantial cash reserves. Cash flow is robust, supporting financial flexibility despite revenue challenges.

Income Statement

Arbor Realty's income statement shows some volatility, with recent total revenue decreasing compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin has turned negative in the latest year, indicating potential cost management issues. However, the company has maintained positive net income. Despite the decrease in EBIT and EBITDA margins, the company continues to generate earnings, which is a positive sign.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively strong, with a significant increase in equity over the years. The debt-to-equity ratio has decreased, showing improved leverage management. The equity ratio has improved, indicating a stronger financial position. The company's substantial cash and cash equivalents also provide liquidity to manage liabilities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics demonstrate positive trends, with a significant increase in operating cash flow. The free cash flow has grown, contributing to the company's ability to reinvest and reduce debt. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
625.94M	721.01M	619.06M	590.92M	434.13M
	Gross Profit
625.94M	721.01M	619.06M	590.92M	434.13M
	EBIT
297.40M	427.90M	371.31M	424.09M	236.55M
	EBITDA
375.37M	500.74M	439.92M	489.92M	293.41M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
264.64M	371.43M	325.78M	339.30M	170.95M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
503.80M	935.52M	14.79M	404.58M	339.53M
	Total Assets
13.49B	15.74B	17.04B	15.07B	7.66B
	Total Debt
7.16B	9.40B	13.50B	12.06B	5.82B
	Net Debt
6.66B	8.47B	12.97B	11.65B	5.49B
	Total Liabilities
10.34B	12.48B	13.97B	12.52B	6.18B
	Stockholders Equity
3.02B	3.12B	2.94B	2.42B	1.34B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
	Operating Cash Flow
461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
	Investing Cash Flow
1.15B	1.88B	-2.32B	-6.75B	-1.16B
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.49B	-1.83B	1.57B	6.89B	1.13B

Arbor Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.98, below the 50-day MA of 11.57, and below the 200-day MA of 12.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ABR.

Arbor Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LADR	71 Outperform	$1.25B	11.46	6.80%	8.72%	-12.51%	7.76%
ABR	68 Neutral	$2.06B	9.10	8.62%	16.01%	-11.26%	-33.80%
ARI	66 Neutral	$1.32B	―	0.41%	11.59%	-14.98%	95.53%
BXMT	63 Neutral	$3.29B	―	-2.06%	10.60%	-12.86%	-182.05%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$2.79B	11.37	0.20%	8519.74%	6.07%	-14.95%
PMT	51 Neutral	$1.12B	13.87	6.36%	12.38%	-4.42%	-43.99%
ARR	48 Neutral	$1.33B	8.01	-0.11%	17.75%	142.18%	50.74%