Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)
NYSE:ABR
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Arbor Realty
(NYSE:ABR)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(6.12% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
ABR scores in the mid-range primarily due to weakened and volatile recent financial performance (sharp 2025 revenue decline, negative gross profit, and historically high leverage/limited visibility), partially offset by strong positive cash generation. Valuation is supportive (moderate P/E and very high dividend yield), while technicals remain weak versus longer-term trends and the earnings call points to improving trajectory but still-material near-term earnings drag from delinquencies/REO.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow (including $372M in 2025) provides durable internal funding for originations, servicing operations, buybacks and dividend support. Reliable cash generation improves flexibility to resolve problem assets and absorb cyclical shocks.
Negative Factors
Large nonperforming assets drag
The roughly $1.1B of nonperforming assets (≈$570M delinquencies + ~$500M OREO) imposes a material $80M–$100M annual earnings drag until resolved. Execution risk and timing uncertainty make near-term distributable income and dividend coverage materially less predictable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow (including $372M in 2025) provides durable internal funding for originations, servicing operations, buybacks and dividend support. Reliable cash generation improves flexibility to resolve problem assets and absorb cyclical shocks.
Read all positive factors
Arbor Realty (ABR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.52B
Dividend Yield17.27%
Average Volume (3M)2.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.2
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth-15.63%
EPS Growth-52.87%
CountryUS
Employees659
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.56
Shares Outstanding193,115,310
10 Day Avg. Volume1,969,384
30 Day Avg. Volume2,726,991
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.51
Price to Sales (P/S)1.24
P/FCF Ratio3.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.50Price Target Upside6.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$499.60M
Arbor Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Structured Business a...
How the Company Makes Money
Arbor Realty primarily makes money through (1) net interest income earned on interest-bearing assets and (2) fee-based income from loan origination and mortgage banking/servicing activities.
1) Net interest income (spread income): Arbor originate...
Arbor Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear evidence of operational progress — meaningful origination growth (agency +13.5%), servicing portfolio expansion (+8%), improved funding costs and a material reduction in nonperforming assets (≈11% QoQ) — with significant near-term headwinds from a still-large delinquent/REO book that is depressing earnings (~$80M–$100M annual drag). Management presented a defined plan and near-term line of sight to materially resolve problem assets, plus accretive buybacks at deep discounts, but acknowledged temporary earnings pressure and Q1 seasonality. Given the tangible progress and diversified revenue streams offsetting but not yet eliminating the legacy drag, the tone is cautiously constructive.Positive Updates
Reduction in Nonperforming Assets (QoQ)
Total nonperforming assets ended the year at roughly $1.1B (Ivan: $570M delinquencies + ~$500M OREO), down by over $130M from the prior quarter — an ~11% reduction, reflecting accelerated resolution efforts.
Negative Updates
Large Stock of Delinquencies and REO Dragging Earnings
Delinquencies reported between $570M (Ivan) and ~ $600M (Paul) and OREO ~ $500M, creating a temporary annual drag estimated at $80M–$100M (≈ $0.40–$0.48 per share) until resolutions occur.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reduction in Nonperforming Assets (QoQ)
Total nonperforming assets ended the year at roughly $1.1B (Ivan: $570M delinquencies + ~$500M OREO), down by over $130M from the prior quarter — an ~11% reduction, reflecting accelerated resolution efforts.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Arbor’s guidance focused on aggressively resolving nonperforming assets to restore income: management said resolving delinquencies/REO could add up to $100,000,000 of annual income (≈$0.48/share) and that year‑end nonperforming assets were roughly $570M of delinquencies and ~$500M of OREO (total ≈$1.1B, down >$130M QoQ), with a line of sight to resolve ~$100M–$150M of delinquencies by the end of March and another ~$100M–$150M in the following 90 days and to reduce REO to ~$250M–$300M in 2026 even after taking back an incremental $100M–$200M; the firm estimates the current drag from non‑interest‑earning assets at ~$80M–$100M annually (≈$0.40–$0.48/share, or $0.10–$0.12/quarter); Q4 distributable earnings were $46.3M ($0.22/share) excluding certain losses; other key metrics/guidance include legacy assets ≈$5.0B (with $570M delinquent, $1.5B performing, $3.0B modified), ~$2.0B of balance‑sheet runoff in 2025 (expected to be similar in 2026), agency originations $1.6B in Q4 and $5.0B for FY2025 (up 13.5% y/y) with FHFA caps +20% for 2026, servicing portfolio ≈$36.2B (up 8%) generating ~$120M–$128M of annuity, balance‑sheet investment portfolio $12.1B (all‑in yield ~7.08%), core debt ~$10.5B (cost ~6.45%), spot net interest spread ~0.63%, targeted 2026 originations of ~$1.0B–$1.5B (balance‑sheet), $1.5B–$2.0B (SFR) and $750M–$1.0B (construction), and ~ $120M remaining on the buyback (≈$20M bought at $7.40 avg, ~64% of book).Arbor Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
41
Neutral
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.21B | 627.52M | 719.01M | 654.07M | 661.48M |
| Gross Profit | 1.14B | 565.19M | 661.85M | 597.95M | 615.18M |
| EBITDA | 901.66M | 1.18B | 1.40B | 997.54M | 701.93M |
| Net Income | 148.80M | 264.64M | 371.43M | 325.78M | 339.30M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.49B | 13.49B | 15.74B | 17.04B | 15.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 482.88M | 503.90M | 935.52M | 535.86M | 406.25M |
| Total Debt | 11.05B | 10.04B | 9.47B | 13.57B | 12.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.43B | 10.34B | 12.48B | 13.97B | 12.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.95B | 3.02B | 3.12B | 2.94B | 2.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 396.35M | 461.52M | 235.86M | 1.10B | 216.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 396.35M | 461.52M | 235.86M | 1.10B | 216.85M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.31B | 1.15B | 1.88B | -2.32B | -6.75B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 798.75M | -2.49B | -1.83B | 1.57B | 6.89B |
Arbor Realty Technical Analysis
Positive
8.01
Price Trends
7.61
Positive
7.76
Positive
9.12
Negative
Market Momentum
0.06
Negative
60.31
Neutral
91.53
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.59, above the 50-day MA of 7.61, and below the 200-day MA of 9.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ABR.
Arbor Realty Risk Analysis
Arbor Realty disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Arbor Realty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Arbor Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $1.46B | 14.00 | 6.88% | 9.89% | 3.09% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $2.85B | -7.94 | 11.05% | 14.63% | 106.28% | 117.12% | |
61 Neutral | $1.62B | 15.59 | 8.54% | 11.37% | 38.10% | -10.75% | |
60 Neutral | $1.30B | 117.58 | 3.71% | 8.21% | -12.74% | -46.71% | |
54 Neutral | $1.52B | 15.24 | 4.99% | 17.27% | -15.63% | -52.87% | |
54 Neutral | $2.14B | -9.09 | 11.47% | 15.06% | 67.32% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ABR
Arbor Realty
7.88
-1.24
-13.63%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.99
2.54
30.07%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
17.29
3.74
27.65%
DX
Dynex Capital
13.26
2.90
28.05%
EFC
Ellington Financial
13.01
1.70
15.01%
LADR
Ladder Capital
10.17
0.68
7.11%
Arbor Realty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Arbor Realty Trust Completes Large Commercial Loan Securitization
Positive
Mar 23, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Arbor Realty Trust closed a $762.6 million commercial real estate mortgage loan securitization structured as a collateralized loan obligation, issuing about $674 million of investment grade notes in a private placement and retai...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Arbor Realty Names Yoni Goodman as New COO
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. has appointed Yoni Goodman as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective February 17, 2026, under an initial five-year employment term that may automatically extend for one additional five-year period....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.