Arbor Realty (ABR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.27B
• Dividend Yield: 12.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -17.43%
• EPS Growth: -37.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 659
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 192,301,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,784,388
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,696,572
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.16
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 16.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.27
• 1Y Price Target: $11.90
• Price Target Upside: 0.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(9.89% Upside)

Arbor Realty's overall stock score reflects strong corporate events and attractive valuation, balanced by stable financial performance and moderate technical indicators. The company's strategic initiatives and high dividend yield are key strengths, while revenue and cash flow declines pose challenges.

Positive Factors

Company Confidence

Analyst reiterates a Market Outperform rating for Arbor Realty Trust, despite adjusting the price target, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.

Financial Performance

Investors could realize a potential total return of about 33%, including a current cash yield of 10.7% if price target and dividend projections are achieved.

Stock Value

Stock price downside from current levels is somewhat limited given both ABR and management have purchased stock below book value in the past, and it is believed this would occur again if shares trade at a material discount to book value.

Negative Factors

Earnings Pressure

The increase in interest rates and the higher-for-longer rate outlook has created headwinds for ABR’s business, such as the need for additional loan modifications to manage through problem loans, lower new originations, lower agency volumes, and increasing REO activity, which will be a drag on earnings over the next 12-24 months.

Interest Rates Impact

Elevated interest rates are expected to be a significant headwind for commercial real estate investors and borrowers, impacting Arbor Realty Trust's earnings.

Portfolio Performance

The bridge loan portfolio declined by 2.3% in the quarter, which was outpaced by repayments, indicating a decrease in this segment of Arbor Realty Trust's business.

Arbor Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. It primarily invests in bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, and preferred and direct equity, as well as real estate-related joint ventures, real estate-related notes, and various mortgage-related securities. The company offers bridge financing products to borrowers who seek short-term capital to be used in an acquisition of property; financing by making preferred equity investments in entities that directly or indirectly own real property; mezzanine financing in the form of loans that are subordinate to a conventional first mortgage loan and senior to the borrower's equity in a transaction; junior participation financing in the form of a junior participating interest in the senior debt; and financing products to borrowers who are looking to acquire conventional, workforce, and affordable single-family housing. Further, it underwrites, originates, sells, and services multifamily mortgage loans through conduit/commercial mortgage-backed securities programs. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Uniondale, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Arbor Realty generates revenue through various channels, primarily by originating, underwriting, and servicing loans secured by real estate. Key revenue streams include interest income from loans, fees from loan origination, and servicing fees from managing loan portfolios. Additionally, the company earns income from its investments in real estate and related assets. Significant partnerships with institutional investors and financial institutions further bolster its funding capabilities, allowing Arbor Realty to expand its lending operations and optimize returns on its real estate investments.

Arbor Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Arbor Realty demonstrates strong profitability and efficient cash generation with robust gross and net profit margins. However, the decline in revenue by 30.8% and free cash flow from previous periods are concerning. Despite these challenges, the company's debt levels remain manageable, and it maintains a solid return on equity.

Income Statement

Arbor Realty's income statement shows a robust TTM gross profit margin of 81.23% and a net profit margin of 40.88%, indicating effective cost management and profitability. The TTM EBIT margin is also strong at 57.55%. However, there is a noticeable decline in revenue from $719 million in 2023 to $497.65 million in the TTM period, indicating a revenue contraction of 30.8%, which is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a healthy TTM equity ratio of 21.93%, suggesting a solid capital structure, but the debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.097, indicating a manageable level of debt. Return on equity (ROE) for TTM is a strong 6.84%, reflecting good returns for shareholders. However, a decrease in stockholders' equity from $3.12 billion in 2023 to $2.97 billion in the TTM period is noteworthy.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.68 for TTM, highlighting efficient cash generation relative to profits. Free cash flow remains robust at $342.23 million, though there is a decline in free cash flow compared to the previous period, which needs attention. The cash flow from financing activities indicates high outflows, suggesting significant debt repayments or dividends.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	771.99M	627.52M	719.01M	654.07M	661.48M	439.38M
Gross Profit	707.24M	565.19M	661.85M	597.95M	615.18M	397.13M
EBITDA	1.04B	1.18B	1.40B	997.54M	701.93M	462.63M
Net Income	213.76M	264.64M	371.43M	325.78M	339.30M	170.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.56B	13.49B	15.74B	17.04B	15.07B	7.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	346.69M	503.80M	935.52M	14.79M	404.58M	339.53M
Total Debt	10.13B	10.04B	9.40B	13.50B	12.06B	5.82B
Total Liabilities	10.47B	10.34B	12.48B	13.97B	12.52B	6.18B
Stockholders Equity	2.97B	3.02B	3.12B	2.94B	2.42B	1.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	342.23M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
Operating Cash Flow	342.23M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-88.35M	1.15B	1.88B	-2.32B	-6.75B	-1.16B
Financing Cash Flow	-862.90M	-2.49B	-1.83B	1.57B	6.89B	1.13B

Arbor Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.46, above the 50-day MA of 11.01, and above the 200-day MA of 11.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ABR.

Arbor Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABR	73 Outperform	$2.27B	13.40	7.09%	12.41%	-17.43%	-37.71%
LADR	71 Outperform	$1.47B	16.41	5.83%	7.99%	-13.74%	-11.53%
BXMT	63 Neutral	$3.35B	―	-0.33%	9.63%	-19.20%	92.16%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$7.06B	13.64	-0.57%	7.01%	3.62%	-22.63%
ARI	57 Neutral	$1.44B	―	-0.35%	9.73%	-26.29%	-342.06%
PMT	52 Neutral	$1.08B	17.06	5.50%	13.06%	1.71%	-56.69%
ARR	48 Neutral	$1.71B	8.01	-2.04%	19.16%	157.34%	91.67%

Arbor Realty Corporate Events

Arbor Realty Closes $1.05 Billion Loan Securitization

On August 12, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. announced the closing of a $1.05 billion commercial real estate mortgage loan securitization. The securitization involved issuing approximately $933 million of investment grade-rated notes and retaining subordinate interests of around $117 million. The proceeds are intended to repay borrowings, cover transaction expenses, and fund future loans and investments. This move is expected to strengthen Arbor’s financial position by allowing reinvestment in qualifying assets over a two-and-a-half-year period, potentially enhancing its market presence and operational flexibility.

Arbor Realty Completes $500M Senior Notes Issuance

On July 9, 2025, Arbor Realty SR, Inc., a subsidiary of Arbor Realty Trust, Inc., completed the issuance and sale of $500 million of 7.875% Senior Notes due 2030. The proceeds are intended to refinance existing debt and for general corporate purposes, with the Notes being senior, unsecured obligations guaranteed by the Parent. This strategic financial move aims to strengthen Arbor Realty’s financial position by managing existing debt obligations and providing flexibility for future corporate activities.

Arbor Realty Announces $500M Senior Notes Offering

On July 2, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Arbor Realty SR, Inc., has priced a $500 million offering of 7.875% Senior Notes due 2030 in a private placement to qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. persons. The proceeds from this offering are intended to refinance Arbor’s outstanding 7.50% Convertible Notes due 2025 and for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

Arbor Realty Closes Major Loan Securitization Deal

On May 30, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. closed a significant build-to-rent loan securitization totaling approximately $802 million, marking a unique financial maneuver in the real estate sector. The securitization involves issuing investment grade-rated notes and retaining subordinate interests, with the proceeds intended to repay existing credit facilities and fund future loans, thus enhancing Arbor’s market positioning and operational capabilities.

Arbor Realty Holds Virtual Annual Stockholder Meeting

On May 21, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. held its virtual annual meeting of stockholders, where several key proposals were voted on. Stockholders approved the election of four Class I directors to serve until the 2028 annual meeting, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2025, and approved the compensation of Arbor’s named executive officers as disclosed in the 2025 proxy statement.