Arbor Realty (ABR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.55B
• Dividend Yield: 17.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: -18.13%
• EPS Growth: -40.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 659
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 195,710,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,049,234
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,977,107
• PEG Ratio: -0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 13.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.82
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.15
• 1Y Price Target: $7.83
• Price Target Upside: -1.22% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.76
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $476.52M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▲(0.88% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is driven primarily by uneven financial performance (2025 revenue/gross profit deterioration and leverage/visibility risks) offset by solid cash generation. Valuation is attractive (low P/E and very high yield), while technical signals are mixed with longer-term downtrend pressure. The earnings call adds a modest lift due to a credible problem-asset resolution plan, but near-term earnings drag remains significant.

Positive Factors

Servicing annuity stability

A ~$36B servicing book with a ~35.6 bps fee and ~6 year remaining life produces a predictable fee annuity (~$120M+). This durable recurring revenue cushions net income cyclicality from originations and supports long-term cash flow and dividend coverage.

Diversified origination scale

High and diversified origination volume across agency, balance-sheet, SFR, construction and mezzanine ($8.5B 2025) supports mortgage banking fees, gain-on-sale and pipeline resiliency. Platform scale reduces single-channel dependency and sustains fee growth over multiple cycles.

Improving funding costs & NII

Sequentially lower cost of funds and a rising net interest spread illustrate effective liability management and execution on refinancings. A tightening spread supports sustainable net interest income over time, improving the ability to generate recurring earnings from held assets.

Negative Factors

Large nonperforming asset drag

A $1.1B legacy NPA/OREO stock materially reduces earning assets and creates an ongoing earnings drag until dispositions occur. Resolving these assets requires capital, selling resources and time, and exposes the firm to realized losses and cash flow volatility over several quarters.

2025 operating deterioration

A sharp revenue collapse and negative gross profit in 2025 signal material stress in core economics. This deterioration suggests reliance on non-core items and undermines confidence in repeatable operating margins, pressuring distributable earnings and capital allocation flexibility.

High leverage & balance sheet opacity

Historically elevated leverage amplifies interest-rate and credit volatility for a mortgage REIT. The anomalous 2025 debt reporting reduces visibility into true leverage, weakening confidence in financial flexibility and increasing refinancing and covenant risk over the medium term.

Arbor Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. It primarily invests in bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, and preferred and direct equity, as well as real estate-related joint ventures, real estate-related notes, and various mortgage-related securities. The company offers bridge financing products to borrowers who seek short-term capital to be used in an acquisition of property; financing by making preferred equity investments in entities that directly or indirectly own real property; mezzanine financing in the form of loans that are subordinate to a conventional first mortgage loan and senior to the borrower's equity in a transaction; junior participation financing in the form of a junior participating interest in the senior debt; and financing products to borrowers who are looking to acquire conventional, workforce, and affordable single-family housing. Further, it underwrites, originates, sells, and services multifamily mortgage loans through conduit/commercial mortgage-backed securities programs. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Uniondale, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Arbor Realty generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by originating and servicing loans for real estate properties, which include multifamily, commercial, and industrial assets. The company earns interest income from the loans it provides, as well as fees from loan origination and servicing. Additionally, Arbor Realty benefits from gains on the sale of loans and investments in real estate. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and real estate developers enhance its ability to generate revenue. Arbor Realty also capitalizes on market demand for rental properties, contributing to its income through strategic investments in high-potential real estate markets.

Arbor Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a clear strength (positive operating cash flow and free cash flow across periods, including 2025), but 2025 operating metrics introduce major uncertainty (sharp revenue drop and negative gross profit) and leverage has been high historically, with limited visibility due to an inconsistent latest debt figure.

Income Statement

Annual revenue and earnings profile weakened materially in 2025, with revenue down sharply (to $110M from $628M in 2024) and gross profit turning negative, signaling significant pressure in core economics versus prior years. Profitability looks inconsistent: net margin appears unusually high in 2025 (near 98%) despite negative gross profit, suggesting results are being driven by non-core items or accounting distortions rather than steady operating performance. Longer-term (2020–2024), the company showed solid revenue scale and generally strong profitability, but the 2025 step-down and margin volatility reduce confidence in durability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has historically been high (debt-to-equity roughly 3.0x–5.0x from 2020–2024), which is a key risk factor for a mortgage REIT in changing credit and rate environments. Equity has been relatively stable around ~$2.9B–$3.1B in recent years, and returns on equity were healthy in 2021–2024 (about 9%–14%), but moderated in 2025 (~3.6%). The 2025 debt figure is shown as zero, which is a major discontinuity versus prior years and makes the latest leverage picture hard to rely on; taken together, the balance sheet reads as moderately risky with limited visibility on the most recent leverage level.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive across all periods shown, including $372M in 2025 and $462M in 2024. Free cash flow tracks net income consistently (free cash flow to net income shown as 1.0 each year), supporting earnings quality on the data provided. The main weakness is volatility—cash flow fell in 2023 and declined again in 2025 (free cash flow growth about -14.6%), which suggests sensitivity to market conditions and less stable cash production than ideal.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	109.62M	627.52M	719.01M	654.07M	661.48M
Gross Profit	-64.53M	565.19M	661.85M	597.95M	615.18M
EBITDA	862.85M	1.18B	1.40B	997.54M	701.93M
Net Income	107.43M	264.64M	371.43M	325.78M	339.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.49B	13.49B	15.74B	17.04B	15.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	482.88M	503.90M	935.52M	535.86M	406.25M
Total Debt	0.00	10.04B	9.47B	13.57B	12.15B
Total Liabilities	11.43B	10.34B	12.48B	13.97B	12.52B
Stockholders Equity	2.95B	3.02B	3.12B	2.94B	2.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	372.38M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M
Operating Cash Flow	372.38M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.28B	1.15B	1.88B	-2.32B	-6.75B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-2.49B	-1.83B	1.57B	6.89B

Arbor Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 7.93
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.56, above the 50-day MA of 7.78, and below the 200-day MA of 9.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ABR.

Arbor Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DX	66 Neutral	$2.83B	5.68	17.50%	14.63%	47.97%	17.22%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ARI	60 Neutral	$1.48B	13.15	6.66%	9.89%	0.29%	―
EFC	60 Neutral	$1.55B	10.51	8.65%	11.37%	70.94%	2.95%
ARR	57 Neutral	$2.14B	5.45	17.82%	15.06%	-27.55%	-97.87%
ABR	56 Neutral	$1.55B	10.13	6.43%	17.27%	-18.13%	-40.87%
LADR	54 Neutral	$1.32B	20.39	4.25%	8.21%	-17.18%	-17.16%

Arbor Realty Corporate Events

Arbor Realty Names Yoni Goodman as New COO

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. has appointed Yoni Goodman as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective February 17, 2026, under an initial five-year employment term that may automatically extend for one additional five-year period. Goodman, a former founding principal of Green Pine Real Estate and president of Meridian Capital Group, will receive a $1 million base salary, substantial annual cash bonus opportunities, participation in benefit plans, and protections in the event of certain employment terminations.

The compensation package is heavily performance-based, featuring annual equity awards starting in 2027 and a multi-year performance equity program running from February 17, 2026, through December 31, 2030, tied to new business volume and total shareholder return targets. These long-dated incentives, along with vesting acceleration upon qualifying terminations, underscore Arbor Realty’s bid to align Goodman’s pay with growth, deal origination, and shareholder returns, while enhancing leadership stability in its commercial real estate finance platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (ABR) stock is a Sell with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arbor Realty stock, see the ABR Stock Forecast page.

Arbor Realty Appoints New Director Following Board Retirement

On December 29, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust director Joseph Martello notified the company of his decision to retire and resign from its Board of Directors, effective December 31, 2025, ending a tenure that began in 2003; the company stated that his departure was not due to any disagreement over its operations, policies or practices and expressed appreciation for his long service. On January 5, 2026, the board appointed John Natalone as a Class II director to fill the vacancy created by Martello’s resignation, noting that there was no special arrangement behind his appointment, that he is not considered independent under applicable listing standards and therefore will not serve on board committees, and that his compensation will follow the company’s existing director pay program, signaling continuity in governance despite the leadership change.

The most recent analyst rating on (ABR) stock is a Sell with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arbor Realty stock, see the ABR Stock Forecast page.

Arbor Realty Issues $400M Senior Notes for Debt Refinancing

On December 16, 2025, Arbor Realty SR, Inc., a subsidiary of Arbor Realty Trust, completed the issuance and sale of $400 million in 8.50% Senior Notes due 2028. The proceeds will be used to refinance existing debt and for general corporate purposes. The issuance is part of a strategic financial maneuver to manage Arbor Realty’s debt obligations and enhance its financial flexibility. The Notes are senior, unsecured obligations guaranteed by the parent company and include covenants that impose certain financial and operational restrictions on the company. This move is expected to impact Arbor Realty’s operations by providing a more favorable debt structure and potentially improving its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (ABR) stock is a Sell with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arbor Realty stock, see the ABR Stock Forecast page.

Arbor Realty Announces $400M Senior Notes Offering

On December 11, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Arbor Realty SR, Inc., has priced a $400 million offering of 8.50% Senior Notes due 2028 in a private offering. The proceeds from this offering are intended to refinance Arbor’s outstanding 7.75% and 5.00% Senior Notes due 2026 and for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s financial structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (ABR) stock is a Sell with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arbor Realty stock, see the ABR Stock Forecast page.