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Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)
NYSE:ABR
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Arbor Realty
(NYSE:ABR)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-3.65%Downside)
Positive Factors
Potential Returns
Investors could realize a potential total return of ~33%, including a current cash yield of 10.7% if price target and dividend projections are achieved.
Stock Value Support
Stock price downside from current levels is somewhat limited given both ABR and management have purchased stock below book value in the past, and it is believed this would occur again if shares trade at a material discount to book value.
Negative Factors
Earnings Pressure
The increase in interest rates and the higher-for-longer rate outlook has created headwinds for ABR’s business, such as the need for additional loan modifications to manage through problem loans, lower new originations, lower agency volumes, and increasing REO activity, which will be a drag on earnings over the next 12-24 months.
Interest Rate Impact
Agency lending volumes are pressured by higher interest rates.
REO Increase
Management expects REO (Real Estate Owned) to increase in coming quarters, contributing to the lower 2025 guidance.
Arbor Realty (ABR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.82B
Dividend Yield18.14%
Average Volume (3M)4.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.6
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth-15.99%
EPS Growth-36.34%
CountryUS
Employees659
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength69
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding192,160,230
10 Day Avg. Volume5,878,736
30 Day Avg. Volume4,269,425
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)0.65
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio5.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.50Price Target Upside16.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
Arbor Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionArbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) is a specialized real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on providing financing solutions to the multifamily and commercial real estate sectors. Based in the United States, Arbor Realty offers a range of products including mortgage loans, mezzanine financing, and preferred equity. The company is known for its expertise in structured finance and direct lending, catering to a diverse clientele across the real estate industry.
How the Company Makes MoneyArbor Realty generates revenue primarily through the interest income from its loan portfolio. As a REIT, the company invests in multifamily and commercial real estate-related loans, earning interest over the term of these financial products. Additionally, Arbor Realty may engage in securitization transactions where it pools loans and sells them as securities, earning fees and interest spreads. The company also benefits from origination fees and servicing income associated with managing its loan portfolio. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions may enhance its capital structure and funding capabilities, further contributing to its revenue streams.
Arbor Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 02, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -8.45%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call detailed significant achievements in liquidity enhancement and market leadership, particularly in the CLO and single-family rental spaces. However, challenges include increased delinquencies, a volatile interest rate environment, and non-cash income concerns, which temper the outlook for 2025.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Innovative $1.1 Billion Repurchase Facility
Entered into a $1.1 billion repurchase facility with JPMorgan, enhancing liquidity by approximately $80 million and providing a two-year replenishment period.
Strong CLO Securitization Market Activity
Demonstrated leadership in the CLO market with strong demand and expectations for a robust market going forward, contributing to future earnings growth.
Single-Family Rental Business Growth
Closed approximately $200 million in new business in the first quarter, with a strong pipeline, contributing to diversified income streams and future earnings.
Construction Lending Progress
Closed $92 million in the first quarter and $58 million in April, with a growing pipeline, aiming to exceed the $250 million to $500 million production guidance for 2025.
Deleveraging Success
Successfully reduced leverage by 30% to a ratio of 2.8 to 1, down from a peak of around 4.0 to 1 over two years ago.
Negative Updates
Increased Delinquencies and REO Assets
Total delinquencies increased to approximately $654 million, with plans to take back assets as REO, temporarily dragging on earnings.
Challenging Interest Rate Environment
Significant volatility and uncertainty in interest rates impacting origination climate, particularly affecting agency business.
Reset and Lower Dividend
Quarterly dividend reset to $0.30 per share, reflecting the current challenging environment and reduced earnings expectations for 2025.
Non-Cash Interest Income Concerns
$15.3 million of interest income in the first quarter was non-cash, raising concerns about cash earnings sustainability.
Company Guidance
In the recent earnings call for Arbor Realty Trust, the company provided updated guidance for 2025, highlighting a transitional year due to ongoing economic challenges and the impact of elevated interest rates. The firm anticipates distributable earnings between $0.30 and $0.35 per quarter, with the first half of the year expected to be at the lower end of this range. The call detailed a $1.1 billion repurchase facility deal with JPMorgan that has added $80 million of liquidity and improved financing efficiencies. The REO assets are projected to grow to $400 million to $500 million, with plans to reposition these assets to enhance performance. Arbor also reported $370 million in new bridge loan originations in Q1, with a full-year goal of $1.5 billion to $2 billion. Additionally, Arbor's agency business is projected to achieve $3.5 billion to $4 billion in volume for 2025, supported by a strong pipeline of $2 billion. The strategic focus includes leveraging the CLO market and optimizing the firm's balance sheet to position for growth in 2026.Arbor Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Arbor Realty shows strong profitability with high margins and effective equity utilization. Improvements in leverage and cash flow stability are noted, but historical revenue fluctuations and previous high leverage present potential risks.Income Statement
The income statement reveals a strong gross profit margin of 90.64% and a solid net profit margin of 46.20% for the TTM, indicating high profitability. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with fluctuations observed in recent years, but the overall trend shows resilience. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, supporting the company's operational efficiency.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.10 for the TTM, which is a significant reduction from previous years, indicating better debt management. However, the return on equity (ROE) is strong at 7.54% for the TTM, demonstrating effective use of equity. The equity ratio has improved slightly, suggesting a stable financial position despite high leverage.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows a positive free cash flow and a favorable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.60 for the TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to income. However, the free cash flow growth rate is not calculable due to prior fluctuations, highlighting potential volatility in cash flow stability.70
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 490.88M | 625.94M | 721.01M | 619.06M | 590.92M | 434.13M | Gross Profit |
| 444.85M | 625.94M | 721.01M | 619.06M | 590.92M | 434.13M | EBIT |
| 224.98M | 297.40M | 427.90M | 371.31M | 424.09M | 236.55M | EBITDA |
| 279.37M | 375.37M | 500.74M | 439.92M | 489.92M | 293.41M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 237.21M | 264.64M | 371.43M | 325.78M | 339.30M | 170.95M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 308.84M | 503.80M | 935.52M | 14.79M | 404.58M | 339.53M | Total Assets |
| 13.37B | 13.49B | 15.74B | 17.04B | 15.07B | 7.66B | Total Debt |
| 286.56M | 7.16B | 9.40B | 13.50B | 12.06B | 5.82B | Net Debt |
| -22.29M | 6.66B | 8.47B | 12.97B | 11.65B | 5.49B | Total Liabilities |
| 10.24B | 10.34B | 12.48B | 13.97B | 12.52B | 6.18B | Stockholders Equity |
| 3.01B | 3.02B | 3.12B | 2.94B | 2.42B | 1.34B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 363.26M | 461.52M | 235.86M | 1.10B | 216.85M | 55.16M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 363.26M | 461.52M | 235.86M | 1.10B | 216.85M | 55.16M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 494.21M | 1.15B | 1.88B | -2.32B | -6.75B | -1.16B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -1.96B | -2.49B | -1.83B | 1.57B | 6.89B | 1.13B |
Arbor Realty Technical Analysis
Negative
9.86
Price Trends
10.76
Negative
11.57
Negative
12.42
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.35
Positive
44.43
Neutral
36.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.22, below the 50-day MA of 10.76, and below the 200-day MA of 12.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ABR.
Arbor Realty Risk Analysis
Arbor Realty disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Arbor Realty reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Arbor Realty Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.34B | 12.73 | 6.80% | 8.93% | -12.51% | 7.76% | |
66 Neutral | $1.36B | ― | 0.41% | 11.42% | -14.98% | 95.53% | |
64 Neutral | $1.82B | 9.58 | 7.77% | 18.14% | -15.99% | -36.34% | |
63 Neutral | $3.26B | ― | -2.06% | 10.84% | -20.46% | -1436.71% | |
60 Neutral | $2.76B | 10.59 | 0.51% | 8507.90% | 5.51% | -19.44% | |
50 Neutral | $1.08B | 13.33 | 6.36% | 13.09% | -4.42% | -43.99% | |
48 Neutral | $1.31B | 8.01 | -0.11% | 18.02% | 142.18% | 50.74% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ABR
Arbor Realty
9.86
-1.85
-15.80%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
9.80
0.92
10.36%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
16.07
-0.21
-1.29%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
18.98
3.60
23.41%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
12.41
0.35
2.90%
LADR
Ladder Capital
10.46
0.35
3.46%
Arbor Realty Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Arbor Realty Holds Virtual Annual Stockholder Meeting
Neutral
May 21, 2025
On May 21, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. held its virtual annual meeting of stockholders, where several key proposals were voted on. Stockholders approved the election of four Class I directors to serve until the 2028 annual meeting, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2025, and approved the compensation of Arbor’s named executive officers as disclosed in the 2025 proxy statement.
The most recent analyst rating on (ABR) stock is a Sell with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arbor Realty stock, see the ABR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.