Arbor Realty (ABR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.67B
• Dividend Yield: 15.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: -18.13%
• EPS Growth: -40.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 659
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 195,710,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,009,575
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,699,842
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.16
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 35.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 53.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.88
• 1Y Price Target: $10.33
• Price Target Upside: 21.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.91
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $578.24M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▼(-0.23% Downside)

Arbor Realty's overall stock score reflects strong profitability and attractive valuation, counterbalanced by technical weakness and high leverage risks. The earnings call provided positive strategic developments, but market challenges persist.

Positive Factors

Strong Profit Margins

High profit margins indicate effective cost management and profitability, supporting long-term financial health and shareholder returns.

Successful CLO Issuance

The successful CLO issuance enhances liquidity, allowing for strategic investments and operational flexibility, strengthening the balance sheet.

Strong Agency Business Performance

Record origination volumes in the agency business demonstrate robust demand and operational efficiency, supporting future revenue growth.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

A significant revenue contraction of 30.8% suggests challenges in maintaining growth, potentially impacting long-term profitability.

Increased Delinquencies

Rising delinquencies indicate increased credit risk, which can strain financial performance and require more resources for management.

Temporary Decline in Net Interest Income

A decline in net interest income affects earnings stability, potentially impacting cash flow and dividend payouts in the near term.

Arbor Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. It primarily invests in bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, and preferred and direct equity, as well as real estate-related joint ventures, real estate-related notes, and various mortgage-related securities. The company offers bridge financing products to borrowers who seek short-term capital to be used in an acquisition of property; financing by making preferred equity investments in entities that directly or indirectly own real property; mezzanine financing in the form of loans that are subordinate to a conventional first mortgage loan and senior to the borrower's equity in a transaction; junior participation financing in the form of a junior participating interest in the senior debt; and financing products to borrowers who are looking to acquire conventional, workforce, and affordable single-family housing. Further, it underwrites, originates, sells, and services multifamily mortgage loans through conduit/commercial mortgage-backed securities programs. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Uniondale, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Arbor Realty generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by originating and servicing loans for real estate properties, which include multifamily, commercial, and industrial assets. The company earns interest income from the loans it provides, as well as fees from loan origination and servicing. Additionally, Arbor Realty benefits from gains on the sale of loans and investments in real estate. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and real estate developers enhance its ability to generate revenue. Arbor Realty also capitalizes on market demand for rental properties, contributing to its income through strategic investments in high-potential real estate markets.

Arbor Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Arbor Realty shows strong profitability with high margins and efficient cash generation. However, declining revenue and free cash flow are concerns, despite stable overall financial health and manageable debt levels.

Income Statement

Arbor Realty's income statement shows a robust TTM gross profit margin of 81.23% and a net profit margin of 40.88%, indicating effective cost management and profitability. The TTM EBIT margin is also strong at 57.55%. However, there is a noticeable decline in revenue from $719 million in 2023 to $497.65 million in the TTM period, indicating a revenue contraction of 30.8%, which is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a healthy TTM equity ratio of 21.93%, suggesting a solid capital structure, but the debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.097, indicating a manageable level of debt. Return on equity (ROE) for TTM is a strong 6.84%, reflecting good returns for shareholders. However, a decrease in stockholders' equity from $3.12 billion in 2023 to $2.97 billion in the TTM period is noteworthy.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.68 for TTM, highlighting efficient cash generation relative to profits. Free cash flow remains robust at $342.23 million, though there is a decline in free cash flow compared to the previous period, which needs attention. The cash flow from financing activities indicates high outflows, suggesting significant debt repayments or dividends.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	368.49M	627.52M	719.01M	654.07M	661.48M	439.38M
Gross Profit	245.88M	565.19M	661.85M	597.95M	615.18M	397.13M
EBITDA	949.01M	1.18B	1.40B	997.54M	701.93M	462.63M
Net Income	183.71M	264.64M	371.43M	325.78M	339.30M	170.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.89B	13.49B	15.74B	17.04B	15.07B	7.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	423.38M	503.90M	935.52M	535.86M	406.25M	339.53M
Total Debt	6.68B	10.04B	9.47B	13.57B	12.15B	4.68B
Total Liabilities	10.77B	10.34B	12.48B	13.97B	12.52B	6.18B
Stockholders Equity	3.00B	3.02B	3.12B	2.94B	2.42B	1.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	436.00M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
Operating Cash Flow	436.00M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-522.02M	1.15B	1.88B	-2.32B	-6.75B	-1.16B
Financing Cash Flow	-235.08M	-2.49B	-1.83B	1.57B	6.89B	1.13B

Arbor Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.52
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.38, below the 50-day MA of 10.65, and below the 200-day MA of 10.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ABR.

Arbor Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EFC	72 Outperform	$1.37B	11.29	9.23%	11.34%	70.94%	2.95%
LADR	71 Outperform	$1.36B	16.90	5.26%	8.61%	-17.18%	-17.16%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ARI	64 Neutral	$1.38B	11.22	7.26%	10.06%	0.29%	―
ABR	60 Neutral	$1.67B	10.89	6.43%	15.61%	-18.13%	-40.87%
DX	60 Neutral	$1.98B	9.11	11.92%	14.68%	47.97%	17.22%
ARR	58 Neutral	$1.86B	358.75	3.75%	17.34%	-27.55%	-97.87%

Arbor Realty Corporate Events

Arbor Realty Trust’s Earnings Call: Achievements and Challenges

The recent earnings call of Arbor Realty Trust painted a picture of both triumphs and challenges. While the company celebrated significant achievements in CLO issuance and portfolio gains, it also acknowledged the hurdles posed by increased delinquencies and temporary declines in net interest income, reflecting the ongoing stress in the market environment.