Arbor Realty (ABR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.51B
• Dividend Yield: 17.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: -18.13%
• EPS Growth: -40.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 659
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 195,710,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,292,767
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,339,683
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.16
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 21.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 31.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.18
• 1Y Price Target: $7.83
• Price Target Upside: 1.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.76
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $475.79M

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▲(10.39% Upside)

Arbor Realty's overall score reflects strong profitability and strategic financial maneuvers, offset by bearish technical indicators and high leverage risks. The attractive valuation and high dividend yield provide a cushion, but market challenges and increased delinquencies remain concerns.

Positive Factors

Strong Profitability

Arbor Realty's strong profitability metrics indicate efficient cost management and a solid ability to generate earnings, which supports long-term financial stability.

Strategic Debt Refinancing

Refinancing with senior notes enhances financial flexibility and improves debt structure, supporting long-term operational stability and market positioning.

Agency Business Performance

Strong performance in the agency business demonstrates Arbor Realty's competitive advantage and ability to capture market opportunities, driving future growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses risks, particularly in a rising interest rate environment, potentially impacting Arbor Realty's financial flexibility and stability.

Increased Delinquencies

Rising delinquencies indicate stress in the loan portfolio, which could lead to increased credit losses and impact Arbor Realty's profitability and cash flow.

Revenue Decline

A substantial decline in revenue growth suggests challenges in maintaining market share and could pressure future earnings and cash generation.

Arbor Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. It primarily invests in bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, and preferred and direct equity, as well as real estate-related joint ventures, real estate-related notes, and various mortgage-related securities. The company offers bridge financing products to borrowers who seek short-term capital to be used in an acquisition of property; financing by making preferred equity investments in entities that directly or indirectly own real property; mezzanine financing in the form of loans that are subordinate to a conventional first mortgage loan and senior to the borrower's equity in a transaction; junior participation financing in the form of a junior participating interest in the senior debt; and financing products to borrowers who are looking to acquire conventional, workforce, and affordable single-family housing. Further, it underwrites, originates, sells, and services multifamily mortgage loans through conduit/commercial mortgage-backed securities programs. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Uniondale, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Arbor Realty generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by originating and servicing loans for real estate properties, which include multifamily, commercial, and industrial assets. The company earns interest income from the loans it provides, as well as fees from loan origination and servicing. Additionally, Arbor Realty benefits from gains on the sale of loans and investments in real estate. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and real estate developers enhance its ability to generate revenue. Arbor Realty also capitalizes on market demand for rental properties, contributing to its income through strategic investments in high-potential real estate markets.

Arbor Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Arbor Realty shows strong profitability with high net profit and EBITDA margins, alongside positive cash flow trends. However, a significant revenue decline and high leverage pose risks.

Income Statement

Arbor Realty's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a significant decline in revenue growth rate at -25.95%, suggesting potential challenges in revenue generation. However, the company maintains strong profitability with a high net profit margin of 49.85% and a robust EBITDA margin of 262.13%. Despite the revenue drop, the company demonstrates efficient cost management and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32 in the most recent annual report, indicating significant leverage. This poses a risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment. However, the company has a reasonable return on equity of 6.12% in the TTM period, reflecting decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is not available, limiting a full assessment of asset financing.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows positive trends with a 27.40% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.0, suggesting effective conversion of profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	368.49M	627.52M	719.01M	654.07M	661.48M	439.38M
Gross Profit	245.88M	565.19M	661.85M	597.95M	615.18M	397.13M
EBITDA	949.01M	1.18B	1.40B	997.54M	701.93M	462.63M
Net Income	183.71M	264.64M	371.43M	325.78M	339.30M	170.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.89B	13.49B	15.74B	17.04B	15.07B	7.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	423.38M	503.90M	935.52M	535.86M	406.25M	339.53M
Total Debt	6.68B	10.04B	9.47B	13.57B	12.15B	4.68B
Total Liabilities	10.77B	10.34B	12.48B	13.97B	12.52B	6.18B
Stockholders Equity	3.00B	3.02B	3.12B	2.94B	2.42B	1.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	436.00M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
Operating Cash Flow	436.00M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-522.02M	1.15B	1.88B	-2.32B	-6.75B	-1.16B
Financing Cash Flow	-235.08M	-2.49B	-1.83B	1.57B	6.89B	1.13B

Arbor Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.88, below the 50-day MA of 8.24, and below the 200-day MA of 9.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ABR.

Arbor Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LADR	66 Neutral	$1.40B	17.36	5.26%	8.21%	-17.18%	-17.16%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ARI	65 Neutral	$1.50B	12.20	7.26%	9.89%	0.29%	―
DX	64 Neutral	$2.77B	5.62	17.50%	14.63%	47.97%	17.22%
ABR	63 Neutral	$1.51B	9.84	6.43%	17.27%	-18.13%	-40.87%
ARR	61 Neutral	$1.95B	375.81	3.75%	15.06%	-27.55%	-97.87%
EFC	60 Neutral	$1.60B	9.74	9.23%	11.37%	70.94%	2.95%

Arbor Realty Corporate Events

Arbor Realty Appoints New Director Following Board Retirement

On December 29, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust director Joseph Martello notified the company of his decision to retire and resign from its Board of Directors, effective December 31, 2025, ending a tenure that began in 2003; the company stated that his departure was not due to any disagreement over its operations, policies or practices and expressed appreciation for his long service. On January 5, 2026, the board appointed John Natalone as a Class II director to fill the vacancy created by Martello’s resignation, noting that there was no special arrangement behind his appointment, that he is not considered independent under applicable listing standards and therefore will not serve on board committees, and that his compensation will follow the company’s existing director pay program, signaling continuity in governance despite the leadership change.

The most recent analyst rating on (ABR) stock is a Sell with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arbor Realty stock, see the ABR Stock Forecast page.

Arbor Realty Issues $400M Senior Notes for Debt Refinancing

On December 16, 2025, Arbor Realty SR, Inc., a subsidiary of Arbor Realty Trust, completed the issuance and sale of $400 million in 8.50% Senior Notes due 2028. The proceeds will be used to refinance existing debt and for general corporate purposes. The issuance is part of a strategic financial maneuver to manage Arbor Realty’s debt obligations and enhance its financial flexibility. The Notes are senior, unsecured obligations guaranteed by the parent company and include covenants that impose certain financial and operational restrictions on the company. This move is expected to impact Arbor Realty’s operations by providing a more favorable debt structure and potentially improving its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (ABR) stock is a Sell with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arbor Realty stock, see the ABR Stock Forecast page.

Arbor Realty Announces $400M Senior Notes Offering

On December 11, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Arbor Realty SR, Inc., has priced a $400 million offering of 8.50% Senior Notes due 2028 in a private offering. The proceeds from this offering are intended to refinance Arbor’s outstanding 7.75% and 5.00% Senior Notes due 2026 and for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s financial structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (ABR) stock is a Sell with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arbor Realty stock, see the ABR Stock Forecast page.