Arbor Realty (ABR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.82B
• Dividend Yield: 18.14%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.27M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: -15.99%
• EPS Growth: -36.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 659
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 192,160,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,878,736
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,269,425
• PEG Ratio: -0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $11.75
• Price Target Upside: 23.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.50 ▲( 0.21% Upside)

Arbor Realty's overall score is influenced by its strong financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by bearish technical indicators and challenges highlighted in the recent earnings call. High profitability and a strong dividend yield are key strengths, while technical weakness and economic challenges present notable risks.

Positive Factors

Potential Returns

Investors could realize a potential total return of ~33%, including a current cash yield of 10.7% if price target and dividend projections are achieved.

Stock Value Support

Stock price downside from current levels is somewhat limited given both ABR and management have purchased stock below book value in the past, and it is believed this would occur again if shares trade at a material discount to book value.

Negative Factors

Earnings Pressure

The increase in interest rates and the higher-for-longer rate outlook has created headwinds for ABR’s business, such as the need for additional loan modifications to manage through problem loans, lower new originations, lower agency volumes, and increasing REO activity, which will be a drag on earnings over the next 12-24 months.

Interest Rate Impact

Agency lending volumes are pressured by higher interest rates.

REO Increase

Management expects REO (Real Estate Owned) to increase in coming quarters, contributing to the lower 2025 guidance.

Arbor Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. It primarily invests in bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, and preferred and direct equity, as well as real estate-related joint ventures, real estate-related notes, and various mortgage-related securities. The company offers bridge financing products to borrowers who seek short-term capital to be used in an acquisition of property; financing by making preferred equity investments in entities that directly or indirectly own real property; mezzanine financing in the form of loans that are subordinate to a conventional first mortgage loan and senior to the borrower's equity in a transaction; junior participation financing in the form of a junior participating interest in the senior debt; and financing products to borrowers who are looking to acquire conventional, workforce, and affordable single-family housing. Further, it underwrites, originates, sells, and services multifamily mortgage loans through conduit/commercial mortgage-backed securities programs. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Uniondale, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Arbor Realty generates revenue primarily through the interest income from its loan portfolio. As a REIT, the company invests in multifamily and commercial real estate-related loans, earning interest over the term of these financial products. Additionally, Arbor Realty may engage in securitization transactions where it pools loans and sells them as securities, earning fees and interest spreads. The company also benefits from origination fees and servicing income associated with managing its loan portfolio. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions may enhance its capital structure and funding capabilities, further contributing to its revenue streams.

Arbor Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Arbor Realty shows strong profitability with high margins and effective equity utilization. Improvements in leverage and cash flow stability are noted, but historical revenue fluctuations and previous high leverage present potential risks.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a strong gross profit margin of 90.64% and a solid net profit margin of 46.20% for the TTM, indicating high profitability. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with fluctuations observed in recent years, but the overall trend shows resilience. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, supporting the company's operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.10 for the TTM, which is a significant reduction from previous years, indicating better debt management. However, the return on equity (ROE) is strong at 7.54% for the TTM, demonstrating effective use of equity. The equity ratio has improved slightly, suggesting a stable financial position despite high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive free cash flow and a favorable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.60 for the TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to income. However, the free cash flow growth rate is not calculable due to prior fluctuations, highlighting potential volatility in cash flow stability.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
490.88M	625.94M	721.01M	619.06M	590.92M	434.13M
	Gross Profit
444.85M	625.94M	721.01M	619.06M	590.92M	434.13M
	EBIT
224.98M	297.40M	427.90M	371.31M	424.09M	236.55M
	EBITDA
279.37M	375.37M	500.74M	439.92M	489.92M	293.41M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
237.21M	264.64M	371.43M	325.78M	339.30M	170.95M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
308.84M	503.80M	935.52M	14.79M	404.58M	339.53M
	Total Assets
13.37B	13.49B	15.74B	17.04B	15.07B	7.66B
	Total Debt
286.56M	7.16B	9.40B	13.50B	12.06B	5.82B
	Net Debt
-22.29M	6.66B	8.47B	12.97B	11.65B	5.49B
	Total Liabilities
10.24B	10.34B	12.48B	13.97B	12.52B	6.18B
	Stockholders Equity
3.01B	3.02B	3.12B	2.94B	2.42B	1.34B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
363.26M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
	Operating Cash Flow
363.26M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
	Investing Cash Flow
494.21M	1.15B	1.88B	-2.32B	-6.75B	-1.16B
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.96B	-2.49B	-1.83B	1.57B	6.89B	1.13B

Arbor Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.48
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.28, below the 50-day MA of 10.81, and below the 200-day MA of 12.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ABR.

Arbor Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LADR	71 Outperform	$1.32B	12.54	6.80%	8.93%	-12.51%	7.76%
ARI	66 Neutral	$1.34B	―	0.41%	11.42%	-14.98%	95.53%
ABR	64 Neutral	$1.82B	9.58	7.77%	18.14%	-15.99%	-36.34%
BXMT	63 Neutral	$3.21B	―	-2.06%	10.84%	-20.46%	-1436.71%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$2.76B	10.59	0.51%	8507.90%	5.51%	-19.44%
PMT	50 Neutral	$1.06B	13.12	6.36%	13.09%	-4.42%	-43.99%
ARR	48 Neutral	$1.31B	8.01	-0.11%	18.02%	142.18%	50.74%

Arbor Realty Corporate Events

Arbor Realty Holds Virtual Annual Stockholder Meeting

On May 21, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. held its virtual annual meeting of stockholders, where several key proposals were voted on. Stockholders approved the election of four Class I directors to serve until the 2028 annual meeting, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2025, and approved the compensation of Arbor’s named executive officers as disclosed in the 2025 proxy statement.

The most recent analyst rating on (ABR) stock is a Sell with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arbor Realty stock, see the ABR Stock Forecast page.