Annaly Capital (NLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.79B
• Dividend Yield: 12.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 17.14%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.73
• Shares Outstanding: 683,031,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,766,963
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,705,557
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.65
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 16.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.47
• 1Y Price Target: $22.00
• Price Target Upside: 1.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.89
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.56B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.50 ▲(3.93% Upside)

Annaly Capital's overall stock score reflects a balance of strong technical momentum and positive earnings call insights against financial performance concerns. The high dividend yield adds appeal, but risks from high leverage and declining profitability weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Economic Returns

Consistent positive economic returns indicate strong performance across investment strategies, enhancing long-term shareholder value.

Strategic Partnerships

The partnership with PennyMac enhances Annaly's servicing capabilities and strengthens its position in the mortgage servicing market, supporting long-term growth.

Capital Raise

Successful capital raises provide Annaly with the financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and manage leverage effectively, supporting future expansion.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting Annaly's ability to navigate economic downturns and impacting long-term financial stability.

Declining Profit Margins

Significant decline in profit margins suggests challenges in maintaining profitability, which could affect Annaly's ability to generate sustainable returns.

Cash Flow Concerns

Decreasing cash flow growth indicates potential liquidity issues, which could constrain Annaly's operational flexibility and investment capacity over time.

Annaly Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in mortgage finance and corporate middle market lending. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities, non-Agency residential mortgage assets, residential mortgage loans, credit risk transfer securities, corporate debts, and other commercial real estate investments. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). As a REIT, it is not subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Annaly Capital generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its mortgage-backed securities and other real estate-related assets. The company leverages its investments by borrowing at lower short-term interest rates and investing in higher-yielding long-term mortgage assets, a strategy known as the 'spread' model. This allows Annaly to profit from the difference between the interest income received from its assets and the cost of financing its investments. Additionally, the company may also earn income from asset management fees and other related services. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include interest rate fluctuations, the overall health of the housing market, and the company's effective risk management strategies. Annaly has established partnerships with various financial institutions and investors, enhancing its ability to optimize its portfolio and access capital.

Annaly Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Annaly Capital's financial performance is mixed. Strong gross profit margins are overshadowed by declining net profit margins and high leverage, posing significant risks. Cash flow concerns are evident with declining free cash flow growth and low cash conversion ratios.

Income Statement

Annaly Capital's income statement shows mixed results. The company has a strong gross profit margin of 63.68% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has significantly declined from 80.29% in 2024 to 24.01% in TTM, suggesting reduced profitability. Revenue growth is modest at 2.27% for TTM, but the historical volatility in revenue, including negative growth in some years, raises concerns about stability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.85 in TTM, which is a significant increase from previous years, indicating potential risk. The return on equity has decreased to 5.68% in TTM, reflecting lower efficiency in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively stable, but the high debt levels overshadow this stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 27.23% in TTM, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting challenges in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains reasonable at 49.35%, showing some ability to generate cash relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.39B	1.25B	5.61B	4.15B	751.40M	1.48B
Gross Profit	7.35B	1.20B	5.58B	4.13B	726.77M	1.46B
EBITDA	6.17B	5.65B	2.27B	3.14B	2.95B	3.62M
Net Income	1.50B	1.00B	-1.64B	1.73B	2.39B	-891.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	125.86B	103.56B	93.23B	81.85B	76.76B	88.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.10B	510.50M	1.41B	1.58B	1.34B	1.24B
Total Debt	102.75B	89.69B	13.20B	8.80B	7.11B	7.04B
Total Liabilities	110.86B	90.86B	81.88B	70.48B	63.57B	74.43B
Stockholders Equity	14.91B	12.61B	11.26B	11.27B	13.17B	14.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.25B	2.45B	1.97B	4.36B	2.54B	-32.15B
Operating Cash Flow	2.83B	3.31B	2.37B	5.37B	3.08B	527.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-11.90B	-14.98B	-8.42B	-14.53B	4.90B	40.35B
Financing Cash Flow	9.57B	11.75B	5.88B	9.39B	-7.88B	-41.49B

Annaly Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 21.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.35, above the 50-day MA of 21.00, and above the 200-day MA of 19.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NLY.

Annaly Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AGNC	66 Neutral	$10.89B	15.35	7.94%	14.20%	729.50%	-53.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
NLY	63 Neutral	$14.79B	10.02	10.94%	12.70%	17.14%	―
BXMT	63 Neutral	$3.10B	29.71	2.88%	10.16%	-18.22%	―
STWD	62 Neutral	$6.60B	16.99	5.34%	10.77%	-13.19%	-11.26%
ARR	58 Neutral	$1.87B	360.48	3.75%	17.26%	-27.55%	-97.87%
RITM	57 Neutral	$6.16B	7.68	10.78%	8.99%	-1.07%	47.50%

Annaly Capital Corporate Events

Annaly Capital Management Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is a diversified capital manager primarily engaged in mortgage finance, operating as a real estate investment trust (REIT) to generate net income for distribution to its stockholders. The company is known for its strategic investment in mortgage-backed securities and other real estate-related assets.

Annaly Capital Management’s Resilient Q3 2025 Earnings Call

Annaly Capital Management’s recent earnings call conveyed a generally positive sentiment, highlighting strong economic returns and successful capital raises. The company demonstrated resilience in its Agency and Residential Credit portfolios, though challenges were noted due to labor market weaknesses and higher interest rates.

Annaly Capital Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

On October 22, 2025, Annaly Capital Management released its financial supplement for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025. The report highlighted a significant increase in GAAP net income per average common share to $1.21, up from $0.03 in the previous quarter, and a stable earnings available for distribution per share at $0.73. The company’s investment portfolio grew to $122.1 billion, with notable increases in agency mortgage-backed securities and residential mortgage loans. Annaly’s financial metrics, such as the annualized GAAP return on average equity, improved significantly, indicating a strong performance in the quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (NLY) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Annaly Capital stock, see the NLY Stock Forecast page.

Annaly Capital Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance

In the third quarter of 2025, Annaly Capital Management reported strong financial performance with earnings available for distribution at $0.73 per share and a book value of $19.25 per share. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share and achieved an economic return of 8.1% for the quarter. Annaly maintained enhanced liquidity and prudent leverage, with significant capital raised and allocated to its Agency MBS portfolio, which grew by 10%. The Residential Credit portfolio also saw growth, driven by record correspondent channel activity and innovative deal structures. Annaly entered a strategic subservicing relationship with PennyMac Financial Services, enhancing its mortgage servicing rights portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (NLY) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Annaly Capital stock, see the NLY Stock Forecast page.

Annaly Capital Completes Series J Preferred Stock Sale

Annaly Capital, a company involved in the financial sector, recently completed a significant transaction involving its Series J Preferred Stock. On August 7, 2025, Annaly Capital closed the issuance and sale of 11,000,000 shares of Series J Preferred Stock, following an underwriting agreement with major financial institutions. This move, which included the exercise of an option to purchase additional shares, was conducted under the company’s registration statement and is expected to impact its capital structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NLY) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Annaly Capital stock, see the NLY Stock Forecast page.