Annaly Capital (NLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.10B
• Dividend Yield: 13.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 2.28%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.73
• Shares Outstanding: 642,076,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,974,188
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,591,550
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 22.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 49.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 25.69
• 1Y Price Target: $20.56
• Price Target Upside: -0.19% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Annaly Capital's overall stock score reflects a balanced view of strong financial stability and strategic growth against the backdrop of revenue volatility and market challenges. The company's reasonable valuation and high dividend yield further support the stock's attractiveness, while technical analysis suggests cautious optimism.

Positive Factors

Dividend

Analyst expresses confidence in NLY's recently raised dividend and expects to maintain it for the remainder of the year.

Financial Stability

NLY's diversified residential platforms and low leverage position them well to manage through and ultimately take advantage of financial volatility.

Negative Factors

Book Value

There is a disproportionate downside for book value if spreads widen further, which could negatively impact stock valuation.

Net Interest Spread

Net interest spread decreased to 1.35% from 1.47% last quarter.

Annaly Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) is a leading diversified capital manager that invests in and finances residential and commercial assets. The company operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) with a focus on investing in and managing a portfolio of mortgage-backed securities and other real estate-related investments. Annaly's core business segments include Agency, Residential Credit, Commercial Real Estate, and Middle Market Lending, providing a comprehensive suite of financial products and services to its clients.

How the Company Makes Money

Annaly Capital makes money primarily through its investments in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other real estate-related assets. The company generates revenue by earning interest income on its investment portfolio, which includes both agency MBS guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises and non-agency MBS that carry more credit risk. Annaly employs a strategy of leveraging its equity to acquire assets, thus enhancing the potential returns through its use of borrowed funds. The company also engages in hedging activities to manage interest rate risk. Additionally, Annaly earns income from its commercial real estate and middle market lending operations, which involve providing financing solutions to businesses and property owners. Key factors contributing to Annaly's earnings include the interest rate environment, housing market trends, and the performance of its diverse investment portfolio.

Annaly Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Annaly Capital's financials show a mixed performance. The income statement reveals volatility but signs of recovery with improved net income. The balance sheet is strong with zero debt in 2024, reflecting good stability. Cash flow is robust, though there are fluctuations in capital movements. Overall, the company shows a positive outlook with a strong equity position but needs to stabilize revenue.

Income Statement

The income statement shows significant volatility in total revenue over the years, with a notable negative revenue in 2023. However, net income has rebounded positively in 2024, indicating a potential turnaround. Despite this, the absence of gross profit, EBIT, and EBITDA data for recent years limits a full analysis of profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet displays a strong equity position, with increasing stockholders' equity from 2023 to 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio is favorable as total debt is zero in 2024, suggesting reduced leverage risk. The equity ratio is consistent, highlighting good financial stability with substantial asset backing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates a strong operating cash flow in 2024, with significant free cash flow growth from 2023. The company effectively manages its cash flow, though fluctuations in investing and financing cash flows suggest some volatility in capital allocation strategies.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.20B	-1.40B	1.95B	2.72B	-669.56M
Gross Profit	1.20B	-1.18B	1.93B	2.64B	-607.43M
EBITDA	0.00	0.00	3.14B	0.00	0.00
Net Income	1.00B	-1.64B	1.73B	2.39B	-891.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	103.56B	93.23B	81.85B	76.76B	88.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.49B	1.41B	1.58B	1.34B	1.24B
Total Debt	21.45B	13.20B	8.80B	7.11B	7.04B
Total Liabilities	90.86B	81.88B	70.48B	63.57B	74.43B
Stockholders Equity	12.61B	11.26B	11.27B	13.17B	14.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.45B	1.97B	4.36B	2.54B	-32.15B
Operating Cash Flow	3.31B	2.37B	5.37B	3.08B	527.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-14.98B	-8.42B	-14.53B	4.90B	40.35B
Financing Cash Flow	11.75B	5.88B	9.39B	-7.88B	-41.49B

Annaly Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.44, above the 50-day MA of 19.48, and above the 200-day MA of 18.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NLY.

Annaly Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	71 Outperform	¥233.73B	14.99	10.65%	3.49%	20.44%	26.56%
RITM	68 Neutral	$6.53B	9.52	10.13%	8.12%	26.69%	9.10%
STWD	68 Neutral	$7.24B	18.14	5.73%	9.65%	-15.07%	-1.00%
AGNC	67 Neutral	$9.72B	28.73	3.98%	15.22%	-18.28%	-10.62%
BXMT	63 Neutral	$3.26B	―	-0.33%	9.89%	-19.20%	92.16%
NLY	62 Neutral	$13.10B	20.31	5.94%	13.11%	2.28%	―
ARR	48 Neutral	$1.70B	8.01	-2.04%	19.10%	157.34%	91.67%

Annaly Capital Corporate Events

Annaly Capital Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Performance

In its First Quarter 2025 earnings release, Annaly Capital Management reported a strong financial performance with an increase in dividend to $0.70 per share and earnings available for distribution at $0.72 per share. The company maintained a robust liquidity position with $7.5 billion in total assets available for financing and continued to grow its portfolio, particularly in Agency MBS. Annaly’s economic leverage increased slightly to 5.7x, and it raised $496 million through its at-the-market sales program. The Residential Credit business expanded its financing capacity by $400 million, and the company remained a leading issuer in the sector.

Spark’s Take on NLY Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, NLY is a Neutral.

Annaly Capital’s overall score reflects a stable financial position and positive earnings call insights, suggesting resilience in a challenging market. Technical analysis shows mixed signals, and the company’s valuation is reasonable with a high dividend yield. The key strengths are financial stability and strategic growth, but revenue volatility and portfolio losses present risks.

To see Spark’s full report on NLY stock, click here.