Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY)
NYSE:NLY
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Annaly Capital
(NYSE:NLY)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$24.00
▲(10.09% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated balance-sheet leverage (debt-to-equity ~7.0x) and a sharp drop in operating/free cash flow in 2025 despite the earnings rebound. Offsetting factors include attractive valuation/income (P/E 7.75; ~12.37% yield) and a positive earnings-call outlook with dividend coverage, while technical signals are mixed-to-weak near term (negative MACD; RSI ~44.7; below 20/50 DMA).
Positive Factors
Scale and Agency MBS franchise
A $93B agency MBS base that is 62% of capital gives durable scale and liquidity advantages. Large agency exposure reduces idiosyncratic credit risk, supports market access for repo financing, and enables meaningful net interest income generation across rate cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated balance-sheet leverage
Debt-to-equity near 7x markedly increases refinancing and market-value risk for a mortgage REIT. High leverage amplifies the impact of spread widening or funding cost increases, constraining capital flexibility and raising the probability that adverse rate moves impair book value or distributable income.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale and Agency MBS franchise
A $93B agency MBS base that is 62% of capital gives durable scale and liquidity advantages. Large agency exposure reduces idiosyncratic credit risk, supports market access for repo financing, and enables meaningful net interest income generation across rate cycles.
Read all positive factors
Annaly Capital (NLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.66B
Dividend Yield12.4%
Average Volume (3M)8.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.1
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth17.14%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees191
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding718,386,960
10 Day Avg. Volume7,336,243
30 Day Avg. Volume8,467,670
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)2.14
P/FCF Ratio-64.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue18.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.39Price Target Upside11.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)3.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.48B
Annaly Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in mortgage finance and corporate middle market lending. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, Agency commercial mortgage-backed...
How the Company Makes Money
Annaly Capital generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its mortgage-backed securities and other real estate-related assets. The company leverages its investments by borrowing at lower short-term interest rates and investi...
Annaly Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a generally positive operational and financial picture: strong quarterly and annual economic returns, significant portfolio growth, substantial capital raised, improved liquidity and conservative leverage, and robust activity across Agency, residential credit and MSR businesses. Notable challenges include compressed Agency spreads reducing near-term yield opportunity, lower swap income, policy/GSE uncertainty and macro risks that could increase volatility. On balance the positive performance, scale, liquidity and disciplined funding profile outweigh the highlighted risks.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly and Annual Returns
Economic return of 8.6% in Q4 2025 and full-year economic return of 20.2%; total shareholder return of 40% for 2025, driven by spread tightening and lower volatility.
Negative Updates
Compressed Agency Spreads and Lower Yield Abundance
Agency spreads tightened markedly (tight end of recent range), reducing relative yield opportunity versus prior wider-spread periods and tempering potential upside from further spread compression.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly and Annual Returns
Economic return of 8.6% in Q4 2025 and full-year economic return of 20.2%; total shareholder return of 40% for 2025, driven by spread tightening and lower volatility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Annaly's guidance for 2026 emphasizes continued strong, diversified performance: management expects low‑to‑mid‑teen prospective returns on Agency MBS (driven by lower volatility and a steeper curve), mid‑teens ROEs from Onslow Bay securitizations, and a constructive MSR backdrop (Q4 CPR 4.6%, serious delinquencies 55 bps, WA note rate 3.28% ≈250 bps out‑of‑the‑money); they said they outearned the $0.70 quarterly dividend in Q4 (EAD $0.74) and expect to do so in Q1, with markets pricing nearly two Fed cuts this year after 75 bps of cuts in 2025. Capital allocation will likely shift incrementally toward residential credit and MSR (longer‑term target ~50% Agency / 30% resi / 20% MSR), supported by ample liquidity (unencumbered assets $7.8B; ~$9.4B assets available for financing), $6.9B warehouse capacity ($2.7B committed), low economic leverage (5.6x), and strong 2025 results (Q4 economic return 8.6%, 2025 economic return 20.2%, TSR 40%); hedging costs should be meaningfully lower as spread and rate volatility sit at multi‑year lows.Annaly Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.70B | 6.36B | 5.61B | 4.15B | 751.40M |
| Gross Profit | 6.69B | 6.29B | 5.56B | 4.11B | 702.13M |
| EBITDA | 6.87B | 5.65B | 2.27B | 3.10B | 2.67B |
| Net Income | 2.03B | 1.00B | -1.64B | 1.73B | 2.39B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 135.61B | 103.56B | 93.23B | 81.85B | 76.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.04B | 2.35B | 4.49B | 152.55M | 119.58M |
| Total Debt | 111.86B | 21.45B | 13.20B | 8.80B | 7.11B |
| Total Liabilities | 119.45B | 90.86B | 81.88B | 70.48B | 63.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.09B | 12.61B | 11.26B | 11.27B | 13.17B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -222.16M | 2.45B | 1.97B | 4.36B | 2.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 692.91M | 3.31B | 2.37B | 5.37B | 3.08B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -27.36B | -14.98B | -8.42B | -14.53B | 4.90B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 27.22B | 11.75B | 5.88B | 9.39B | -7.88B |
Annaly Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
21.80
Price Trends
21.76
Positive
21.67
Positive
20.32
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.11
Negative
57.08
Neutral
77.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.01, above the 50-day MA of 21.76, and above the 200-day MA of 20.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NLY.
Annaly Capital Risk Analysis
Annaly Capital disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Annaly Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Annaly Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $2.64B | 2.95 | 17.19% | 14.63% | 47.97% | 17.22% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $6.52B | 14.75 | 6.21% | 10.53% | -13.19% | -11.26% | |
61 Neutral | $11.59B | 3.06 | 15.10% | 13.98% | 729.50% | -53.65% | |
59 Neutral | $15.66B | 7.05 | 14.13% | 12.40% | 17.14% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $3.26B | 29.85 | 3.05% | 9.32% | -18.22% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $5.44B | 9.03 | 8.35% | 8.95% | -1.07% | 47.50% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
NLY
Annaly Capital
21.80
5.36
32.60%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
10.32
2.61
33.83%
DX
Dynex Capital
13.08
2.92
28.70%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
19.31
2.71
16.35%
RITM
Rithm Capital
9.79
0.35
3.76%
STWD
Starwood Property
17.58
0.78
4.66%
Annaly Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Annaly Capital Reports Strong Q4 2025 Financial Performance
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Annaly Capital Management posted its financial supplement for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, showing a strengthened balance sheet and improved profitability metrics versus the prior quarter. GAAP net income per common sh...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Annaly Capital Highlights Strong Q4 2025 Results and Positioning
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
In its fourth-quarter 2025 investor presentation dated January 28, 2026, Annaly Capital Management reported a strong year, delivering a 20.2% economic return for 2025 and an 8.6% economic return in the fourth quarter, with quarterly earnings avail...
Executive/Board Changes
Annaly Capital Announces Retirement of Senior Legal Executive
Neutral
Dec 29, 2025
On December 29, 2025, Annaly Capital Management announced that long-serving executive Anthony C. Green will retire after 16 years with the company, transitioning from his roles as Chief Legal Officer, Chief Corporate Officer and Secretary to a Sen...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Annaly Capital Launches $2.5 Billion At-The-Market Program
Positive
Dec 22, 2025
On December 22, 2025, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. entered into distribution agency agreements with a group of major investment banks and broker-dealers, allowing the company to offer and sell up to $2.5 billion of its common stock from time to...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.