Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
NYSE:NLY
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Annaly Capital
(NYSE:NLY)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$24.00
▲(5.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/30/26
The score is primarily held back by financial risk factors—very high leverage and negative recent operating/free cash flow—despite a rebound in profitability. Offsetting this, the stock shows moderately positive technical trend signals, valuation support from a high dividend yield with a moderate P/E, and an earnings call that highlighted dividend coverage, liquidity, and constructive positioning albeit with book value pressure and macro-driven volatility.
Positive Factors
Scale in Residential Credit & MSR platforms
Annaly's sizable MSR and residential credit franchises create durable, higher-yielding revenue streams and proprietary asset pipelines. Scale in securitization and servicing supports persistent fee income, better economics on whole-loan sourcing, and structural diversification away from pure Agency exposure.
Negative Factors
Very high corporate leverage
Extremely elevated debt-to-equity materially increases sensitivity to funding-cost moves and market dislocations. High leverage limits balance-sheet flexibility, amplifies return volatility, and raises the likelihood of equity raises or asset sales under stress, constraining durable capital allocation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale in Residential Credit & MSR platforms
Annaly's sizable MSR and residential credit franchises create durable, higher-yielding revenue streams and proprietary asset pipelines. Scale in securitization and servicing supports persistent fee income, better economics on whole-loan sourcing, and structural diversification away from pure Agency exposure.
Read all positive factors
Annaly Capital (NLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.79B
Dividend Yield12.4%
Average Volume (3M)5.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.5
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth12.27%
EPS Growth237.09%
CountryUS
Employees191
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.97
Shares Outstanding732,776,250
10 Day Avg. Volume5,176,068
30 Day Avg. Volume5,345,239
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)2.14
P/FCF Ratio-64.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue19.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.00Price Target Upside5.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.24B
Annaly Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in mortgage finance and corporate middle market lending. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, Agency commercial mortgage-backed...
How the Company Makes Money
Annaly primarily makes money from the net interest income (often referred to as “net interest spread”) generated by investing in mortgage-related assets and financing those investments with short-term or secured borrowings. In practice, it buys po...
Annaly Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed resilient operating performance across a diversified platform despite a volatile macro and geopolitical backdrop. Key positives include a positive economic return (1.5%), EAD that covered the dividend ($0.76 vs $0.70), disciplined leverage (5.7x), successful equity raise (~$510M) and strong growth in Residential Credit and MSR (portfolio growth, record securitizations, and improved platform scale). Challenges included a 1.9% QoQ book value decline, March rate/treasury sell-off that increased hedging costs and some spread widening in credit and Agency late in the quarter. On balance, management emphasized conservative risk management, ample liquidity, and attractive relative-value opportunities across the three strategies.Positive Updates
Positive Economic Return and Dividend Coverage
Delivered an economic return of 1.5% in Q1 2026 and generated earnings available for distribution (EAD) of $0.76 per share (up $0.02 QoQ), which exceeded the quarterly dividend of $0.70.
Negative Updates
Book Value Decline in Q1
Book value per share decreased 1.9% QoQ to $19.82 for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, driven primarily by market volatility and hedging costs.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Positive Economic Return and Dividend Coverage
Delivered an economic return of 1.5% in Q1 2026 and generated earnings available for distribution (EAD) of $0.76 per share (up $0.02 QoQ), which exceeded the quarterly dividend of $0.70.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that each of its three strategies is “well positioned to deliver attractive risk‑adjusted returns” for the rest of 2026, with Agency offering perspective new‑money returns in the mid‑teens and the firm reiterating its long‑term capital target of ~50% Agency / 30% Residential Credit / 20% MSR while remaining ready to dynamically reallocate capital; current Q1 metrics include a 1.5% economic return, $0.76 EAD per share (ex‑PAA), book value per share of $19.82 (down 1.9% QoQ) after a $0.70 dividend, economic leverage of 5.7x, ~$510M of common equity raised via ATM, aggregate capital allocation to Resi+MSR up from 38% to 44%, Agency market value $92B (56% of capital), Residential Credit market value $10.3B (23% of capital) with $6.7B whole‑loan acquisitions, $7.4B lock volume (+16% QoQ, +41% YoY), $4.7B OBX settlements (8 securitizations) and $79B industry gross issuance (+63% YoY), MSR market value $4.2B (21% of capital) with ~$24B UPB committed (~$388M MV), weighted average note rates ~3.3–3.4%, MSR prepay speeds ~4.2 CPR and MSR serious delinquencies just under 50 bps, portfolio‑level non‑QM D90+ ≈140 bps, average repo ~3.9% (reported earning repo 3.87%), NIM 1.71% (↑2 bps), net interest spread ~1.42%, ~$7.4B unencumbered assets (incl. ~$5B cash/Agency MBS), ~$9B assets available for financing (~55% of capital), total warehouse capacity $7.6B (incl. $2.8B committed) with 65% Resi / 50% MSR utilization, and an efficiency ratio of 1.29%—all supporting continued MSR and Residential Credit growth while keeping Agency exposure investable.Annaly Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.84B | 6.70B | 6.36B | 5.61B | 4.15B | 751.40M |
| Gross Profit | 6.78B | 6.69B | 6.29B | 5.56B | 4.11B | 702.13M |
| EBITDA | 7.21B | 6.87B | 5.65B | 2.27B | 3.10B | 2.67B |
| Net Income | 2.19B | 2.03B | 1.00B | -1.64B | 1.73B | 2.39B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 138.54B | 135.61B | 103.56B | 93.23B | 81.85B | 76.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.91B | 2.04B | 2.35B | 4.49B | 152.55M | 119.58M |
| Total Debt | 116.91B | 111.86B | 89.61B | 77.54B | 68.31B | 61.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 122.21B | 119.45B | 90.86B | 81.88B | 70.48B | 63.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.27B | 16.09B | 12.61B | 11.26B | 11.27B | 13.17B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.58B | -222.16M | 2.45B | 1.97B | 4.36B | 2.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -552.27M | 692.91M | 3.31B | 2.37B | 5.37B | 3.08B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -33.42B | -27.36B | -14.98B | -8.42B | -14.53B | 4.90B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 34.05B | 27.22B | 11.75B | 5.88B | 9.39B | -7.88B |
Annaly Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
22.80
Price Trends
21.82
Negative
22.08
Negative
20.99
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
40.54
Neutral
10.63
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.32, above the 50-day MA of 21.82, and above the 200-day MA of 20.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.63 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NLY.
Annaly Capital Risk Analysis
Annaly Capital disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Annaly Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Annaly Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $15.79B | 13.52 | 14.41% | 12.40% | 12.27% | 237.09% | |
61 Neutral | $2.79B | -7.94 | 11.05% | 14.63% | 106.28% | 117.12% | |
60 Neutral | $6.31B | 27.96 | 5.25% | 10.53% | 7.65% | 1.25% | |
57 Neutral | $11.82B | -19.02 | 12.70% | 13.98% | 35.16% | 208.36% | |
57 Neutral | $5.10B | 12.05 | 8.69% | 8.95% | 7.75% | -8.30% | |
49 Neutral | $3.08B | -128.55 | 2.94% | 9.32% | -7.20% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
NLY
Annaly Capital
21.56
5.15
31.42%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
10.25
2.62
34.27%
DX
Dynex Capital
12.87
2.59
25.22%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
17.96
1.15
6.82%
RITM
Rithm Capital
9.27
-0.85
-8.38%
STWD
Starwood Property
17.14
-0.27
-1.56%
Annaly Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Annaly Capital Reports Strong Q1 2026 Economic Returns
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
In its first-quarter 2026 investor presentation dated April 21, 2026, Annaly Capital reported its tenth consecutive quarter of positive economic returns, with earnings available for distribution of $0.76 per share again exceeding its $0.70 common ...
Financial Disclosures
Annaly Capital Reports Solid Q1 2026 Earnings Performance
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, Annaly Capital Management posted its financial supplement for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, reporting GAAP net income of $0.33 per average common share and earnings available for distribution of $0.76, alongside an annualize...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.