Annaly Capital (NLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.67B
• Dividend Yield: 12.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.24M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: 17.14%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.73
• Shares Outstanding: 683,031,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,371,171
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,238,952
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.65
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 25.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 25.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 36.52
• 1Y Price Target: $23.28
• Price Target Upside: -4.59% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.98
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.30B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.50 ▲(0.41% Upside)

The score reflects improved but still riskier fundamentals: strong recent recovery and cash generation are offset by very high leverage and earnings volatility. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages, valuation is attractive with a moderate P/E and very high yield, and the latest earnings call was broadly positive with dividend coverage and continued economic returns.

Positive Factors

Economic Returns

Consistent positive economic returns indicate strong performance across investment strategies, enhancing long-term shareholder value.

Strategic Partnerships

The partnership with PennyMac enhances Annaly's servicing capabilities and strengthens its position in the mortgage servicing market, supporting long-term growth.

Capital Raise

Successful capital raises provide Annaly with the financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and manage leverage effectively, supporting future expansion.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting Annaly's ability to navigate economic downturns and impacting long-term financial stability.

Declining Profit Margins

Significant decline in profit margins suggests challenges in maintaining profitability, which could affect Annaly's ability to generate sustainable returns.

Cash Flow Concerns

Decreasing cash flow growth indicates potential liquidity issues, which could constrain Annaly's operational flexibility and investment capacity over time.

Annaly Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in mortgage finance and corporate middle market lending. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities, non-Agency residential mortgage assets, residential mortgage loans, credit risk transfer securities, corporate debts, and other commercial real estate investments. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). As a REIT, it is not subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Annaly Capital generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its mortgage-backed securities and other real estate-related assets. The company leverages its investments by borrowing at lower short-term interest rates and investing in higher-yielding long-term mortgage assets, a strategy known as the 'spread' model. This allows Annaly to profit from the difference between the interest income received from its assets and the cost of financing its investments. Additionally, the company may also earn income from asset management fees and other related services. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include interest rate fluctuations, the overall health of the housing market, and the company's effective risk management strategies. Annaly has established partnerships with various financial institutions and investors, enhancing its ability to optimize its portfolio and access capital.

Annaly Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Annaly Capital's financial performance is mixed. Strong gross profit margins are overshadowed by declining net profit margins and high leverage, posing significant risks. Cash flow concerns are evident with declining free cash flow growth and low cash conversion ratios.

Income Statement

Annaly Capital's income statement shows mixed results. The company has a strong gross profit margin of 63.68% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has significantly declined from 80.29% in 2024 to 24.01% in TTM, suggesting reduced profitability. Revenue growth is modest at 2.27% for TTM, but the historical volatility in revenue, including negative growth in some years, raises concerns about stability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.85 in TTM, which is a significant increase from previous years, indicating potential risk. The return on equity has decreased to 5.68% in TTM, reflecting lower efficiency in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively stable, but the high debt levels overshadow this stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 27.23% in TTM, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting challenges in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains reasonable at 49.35%, showing some ability to generate cash relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.73B	1.25B	-1.40B	2.00B	2.88B	-548.42M
Gross Profit	4.68B	1.20B	-1.44B	1.97B	2.87B	-548.42M
EBITDA	3.29B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	1.50B	1.00B	-1.64B	1.73B	2.39B	-891.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	125.86B	103.56B	93.23B	81.85B	76.76B	88.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	320.35M	2.35B	4.49B	152.55M	119.58M	1.24B
Total Debt	29.46B	21.45B	13.20B	8.80B	7.11B	71.88B
Total Liabilities	110.86B	90.86B	81.88B	70.48B	63.57B	74.43B
Stockholders Equity	14.91B	12.61B	11.26B	11.27B	13.17B	14.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.95B	2.45B	1.97B	4.36B	2.54B	535.56M
Operating Cash Flow	2.86B	3.31B	2.37B	5.37B	3.08B	535.56M
Investing Cash Flow	-23.72B	-14.98B	-8.42B	-14.53B	4.90B	40.35B
Financing Cash Flow	21.40B	11.75B	5.88B	9.39B	-7.88B	-41.49B

Annaly Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.13, above the 50-day MA of 22.55, and above the 200-day MA of 20.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.48 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NLY.

Annaly Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
AGNC	65 Neutral	$12.80B	18.04	7.94%	13.98%	729.50%	-53.65%
DX	65 Neutral	$2.15B	9.90	11.92%	14.63%	47.97%	17.22%
STWD	63 Neutral	$6.87B	17.69	5.34%	10.53%	-13.19%	-11.26%
NLY	62 Neutral	$16.67B	11.30	10.94%	12.40%	17.14%	―
BXMT	60 Neutral	$3.29B	31.51	2.88%	9.32%	-18.22%	―
RITM	56 Neutral	$6.52B	8.12	10.78%	8.95%	-1.07%	47.50%

Annaly Capital Corporate Events

Annaly Capital Announces Retirement of Senior Legal Executive

On December 29, 2025, Annaly Capital Management announced that long-serving executive Anthony C. Green will retire after 16 years with the company, transitioning from his roles as Chief Legal Officer, Chief Corporate Officer and Secretary to a Senior Advisor effective January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026. Green, who has played a central role in overseeing legal and compliance functions, corporate responsibility, government relations and key control areas, and who was instrumental in Annaly’s 2020 shift to an internally managed structure and its execution of complex transactions, will receive continued base salary during his advisory term, remain eligible for 2025 incentive compensation, continue to vest in outstanding equity awards with certain modified retirement conditions, and receive additional lump-sum cash payments in connection with his retirement and related transition covenants, underscoring a structured leadership handover designed to preserve governance continuity and support the company’s strategic and operational stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (NLY) stock is a Buy with a $23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Annaly Capital stock, see the NLY Stock Forecast page.

Annaly Capital Launches $2.5 Billion At-The-Market Program

On December 22, 2025, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. entered into distribution agency agreements with a group of major investment banks and broker-dealers, allowing the company to offer and sell up to $2.5 billion of its common stock from time to time through at-the-market equity offerings. Under these agreements, the sales agents will use commercially reasonable efforts to place Annaly’s shares in the market for a commission of up to 1% of gross sales proceeds, providing the company with a flexible mechanism to raise additional equity capital over time under its existing shelf registration, which could impact its capital structure and funding capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (NLY) stock is a Buy with a $23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Annaly Capital stock, see the NLY Stock Forecast page.

Annaly Capital Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

On October 22, 2025, Annaly Capital Management released its financial supplement for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025. The report highlighted a significant increase in GAAP net income per average common share to $1.21, up from $0.03 in the previous quarter, and a stable earnings available for distribution per share at $0.73. The company’s investment portfolio grew to $122.1 billion, with notable increases in agency mortgage-backed securities and residential mortgage loans. Annaly’s financial metrics, such as the annualized GAAP return on average equity, improved significantly, indicating a strong performance in the quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (NLY) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Annaly Capital stock, see the NLY Stock Forecast page.

Annaly Capital Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance

In the third quarter of 2025, Annaly Capital Management reported strong financial performance with earnings available for distribution at $0.73 per share and a book value of $19.25 per share. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share and achieved an economic return of 8.1% for the quarter. Annaly maintained enhanced liquidity and prudent leverage, with significant capital raised and allocated to its Agency MBS portfolio, which grew by 10%. The Residential Credit portfolio also saw growth, driven by record correspondent channel activity and innovative deal structures. Annaly entered a strategic subservicing relationship with PennyMac Financial Services, enhancing its mortgage servicing rights portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (NLY) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Annaly Capital stock, see the NLY Stock Forecast page.