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Annaly Capital
(NYSE:NLY)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$26.00
▲(15.81% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/20/26
The score is driven by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and supportive technicals (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). These positives are tempered by fundamental risk: very high leverage and weakening/free cash flow despite the recent earnings rebound. Earnings-call commentary reinforces near-term confidence via dividend coverage and liquidity, but also underscores ongoing rate and mark-to-market sensitivity.
Positive Factors
Durable earnings and dividend coverage
Recurring distribution coverage indicates that current portfolio yields and hedging results are supporting shareholder returns. The nine-quarter record provides evidence of sustained earnings capacity, although future coverage remains tied to funding costs and asset spreads.
Negative Factors
Very high balance-sheet leverage
The mREIT model depends on leverage, but debt several times equity magnifies exposure to repo costs, collateral calls, and mortgage-asset price declines. Rising leverage since 2022 leaves less room for error if spreads widen or financing conditions deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable earnings and dividend coverage
Recurring distribution coverage indicates that current portfolio yields and hedging results are supporting shareholder returns. The nine-quarter record provides evidence of sustained earnings capacity, although future coverage remains tied to funding costs and asset spreads.
Read all positive factors
Annaly Capital (NLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.89B
Dividend Yield12.24%
Average Volume (3M)7.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.8
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth19.43%
EPS Growth297.06%
CountryUS
Employees212
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.01
Shares Outstanding753,714,400
10 Day Avg. Volume6,548,502
30 Day Avg. Volume7,446,325
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)2.14
P/FCF Ratio-64.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.19Price Target Upside7.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.53B
Annaly Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates as a multifaceted financial firm, specializing in managing capital across various sectors. Its core business encompasses mortgage-related investments and lending to middle-market corporations. NLY str...
How the Company Makes Money
Annaly primarily makes money by earning net interest income from investing in mortgage-related assets and financing those investments with short-term borrowings. Its core economic model is maturity and spread-based: (1) Portfolio yield: Annaly buy...
Annaly Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial performance backdrop: strong economic returns (5.5% quarterly), EAD that exceeded the increased dividend, book value growth, record residential credit acquisitions, leadership in non-QM securitizations, and ample liquidity and conservative leverage. Management also raised equity selectively and deployed capital across agency, residential credit and MSR with demonstrable scale gains. Principal risks cited were macro and geopolitical uncertainty, potential rate moves by the Fed, moderate mark-to-market sensitivity, lower swap income from SOFR declines, and a temporary rise in operating expenses. On balance, the highlights (growth, record deal activity, solid returns, liquidity and conservative leverage) materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Economic Return
Delivered a 5.5% economic return for Q2 2026 and 6.9% for the first half of 2026, supported by elevated portfolio yields, tighter mortgage spreads and favorable hedge performance.
Negative Updates
Market and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Rising interest rates (led by the front end of the curve), heightened Fed concerns over persistent inflation and geopolitical risks (Middle East energy shock) create uncertainty and the market currently prices the potential for at least one Fed hike in 2026.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Economic Return
Delivered a 5.5% economic return for Q2 2026 and 6.9% for the first half of 2026, supported by elevated portfolio yields, tighter mortgage spreads and favorable hedge performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Annaly guided that it expects to continue deploying capital across its three strategies while maintaining conservative leverage and liquidity: the board increased the quarterly common dividend to $0.75 (covered by Q2 EAD of $0.79) based on confidence in earning power (Q2 economic return 5.5%, H1 6.9%); book value rose to $20.15 (+1.7% Q/Q) with economic leverage 5.6x (from 5.7x), ~$450M raised via ATM, and $9.6B of assets available for financing (~57% of capital) including $8.0B unencumbered assets and $5.5B cash/unencumbered agency MBS. Operational and funding metrics supporting the outlook include a weighted average coupon on assets of 5.11% (+11 bps), average repo rate 3.4% (down 6 bps) and ending repo 3.85% (down 2 bps) with repo DTM 33 days, NIM 1.76% (+5 bps) and net spread 1.50% (+8 bps). Target deployments highlighted: agency MBS grew ~$3B to $95B (57% allocation) with mid‑teens levered returns; residential credit stands at $10.4B (22% of capital) after $7.1B of loan acquisitions in Q2 and YTD securitization activity of >$150B (Annaly: 25 deals YTD, $14.2B; Q2: 13 deals, $6.8B, ~$780M proprietary); MSR portfolio ~$4.1B (21% of capital) with 5.2% CPR, ~50 bps serious delinquencies, 3.3% WA note rate and a multiple ~5.97 — and management expects to modestly grow resi credit and MSR while continuing to opportunistically deploy into agency where returns remain attractive (agency ~14% ROE, resi >15%, MSR >13% on warehouse financing).Annaly Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.28B | 6.70B | 6.36B | 5.61B | 4.15B | 751.40M |
| Gross Profit | 7.23B | 6.69B | 6.29B | 5.56B | 4.11B | 702.13M |
| EBITDA | 8.16B | 6.87B | 5.65B | 2.27B | 3.10B | 2.67B |
| Net Income | 2.95B | 2.03B | 1.00B | -1.64B | 1.73B | 2.39B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 143.74B | 135.61B | 103.56B | 93.23B | 81.85B | 76.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.91B | 2.04B | 2.35B | 4.49B | 152.55M | 119.58M |
| Total Debt | 124.94B | 111.86B | 89.61B | 77.54B | 68.31B | 61.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 126.76B | 119.45B | 90.86B | 81.88B | 70.48B | 63.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.93B | 16.09B | 12.61B | 11.26B | 11.27B | 13.17B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -314.44M | -222.16M | 2.45B | 1.97B | 4.36B | 2.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 886.45M | 692.91M | 3.31B | 2.37B | 5.37B | 3.08B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.33B | -27.36B | -14.98B | -8.42B | -14.53B | 4.90B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 32.30B | 27.22B | 11.75B | 5.88B | 9.39B | -7.88B |
Annaly Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
22.45
Price Trends
22.55
Positive
21.90
Positive
21.40
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
56.51
Neutral
75.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.03, below the 50-day MA of 22.55, and above the 200-day MA of 21.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NLY.
Annaly Capital Risk Analysis
Annaly Capital disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Annaly Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Annaly Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $17.89B | 5.81 | 18.39% | 12.69% | 19.43% | 297.06% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $3.31B | 5.00 | 16.91% | 16.19% | 136.45% | 234.34% | |
64 Neutral | $5.80B | 16.66 | 5.55% | 10.96% | 11.86% | -53.30% | |
63 Neutral | $13.14B | 5.54 | 18.30% | 13.60% | 133.36% | 486.52% | |
60 Neutral | $6.13B | 24.45 | 3.40% | 11.62% | 10.66% | -45.26% | |
48 Neutral | $2.44B | 179.38 | 0.45% | 11.26% | -3.93% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
NLY
Annaly Capital
23.29
5.28
29.30%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
10.92
2.51
29.88%
DX
Dynex Capital
13.25
2.61
24.49%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
14.35
-2.61
-15.38%
RITM
Rithm Capital
10.16
-0.90
-8.10%
STWD
Starwood Property
16.41
-1.46
-8.15%
Annaly Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividends
Annaly Capital to Redeem Series I Preferred Shares
Positive
Aug 19, 2026
On August 19, 2026, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. announced that it will redeem all 17,700,000 outstanding shares of its 6.750% Series I Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock. The company set a cash redemption price of $25...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Annaly Capital Reports Strong Quarterly Profitability Rebound
Positive
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Annaly Capital posted its financial supplement for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, reporting a strong rebound in profitability and book value. GAAP net income per average common share rose to $1.06 from $0.33 in the prior quarte...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Annaly Capital Raises Dividend on Strong Q2 Earnings
Positive
Jul 21, 2026
In its second-quarter 2026 investor presentation dated July 21, 2026, Annaly reported earnings available for distribution of $0.79 per average common share, again exceeding its dividend and underscoring the durability of its housing finance earnin...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Annaly Capital Stockholders Back Board and Governance Structure
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 10, 2026, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders elected nine directors to serve until the 2027 Annual Meeting and confirmed a high level of participation, with nearly 79% of eligib...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.