American Eagle (AEO)
NYSE:AEO
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American Eagle
(NYSE:AEO)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▼(-0.12% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial quality—especially the sharp drop in TTM free cash flow and margin compression—along with bearish technicals. These are partially offset by constructive FY2026 guidance and solid brand momentum (notably Aerie/OFFLINE), with valuation providing only moderate support.
Positive Factors
Aerie/OFFLINE brand momentum
Sustained double-digit Aerie/OFFLINE comps and rising new-customer metrics indicate durable brand differentiation and improved customer acquisition economics. This supports higher-margin growth and reduces reliance on promotions, underpinning long-term mix improvement and repeat purchase potential.
Negative Factors
Severe free cash flow deterioration
A collapse in FCF and weak cash conversion signals structural working-capital or reinvestment strain, reducing internal funding for growth, dividends, or buybacks. Persistently low cash generation raises refinancing and execution risks if earnings or inventory cycles slip.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Aerie/OFFLINE brand momentum
Sustained double-digit Aerie/OFFLINE comps and rising new-customer metrics indicate durable brand differentiation and improved customer acquisition economics. This supports higher-margin growth and reduces reliance on promotions, underpinning long-term mix improvement and repeat purchase potential.
Read all positive factors
American Eagle (AEO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.80B
Dividend Yield2.09%
Average Volume (3M)5.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.9
Beta (1Y)1.29
Revenue Growth-1.15%
EPS Growth-0.98%
CountryUS
Employees9,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.84
Shares Outstanding169,512,010
10 Day Avg. Volume5,796,648
30 Day Avg. Volume5,878,397
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.61
Price to Book (P/B)2.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.53
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.14Price Target Upside46.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.68B
American Eagle Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer that provides clothing, accessories, and personal care products under the American Eagle and Aerie brands. The company provides jeans, and specialty apparel and accessories for women...
How the Company Makes Money
AEO makes money primarily by selling branded apparel and accessories directly to consumers through two main channels: (1) physical retail stores and (2) digital commerce (brand websites and mobile apps). Revenue is generated when customers purchas...
American Eagle Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Store Count
Tracks the number of retail locations, reflecting the company’s physical market presence and potential for customer reach and sales growth.
Tracks the number of retail locations, reflecting the company’s physical market presence and potential for customer reach and sales growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican Eagle Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a strong turnaround and a powerful finish to 2025 driven by Aerie/OFFLINE momentum, record quarterly and annual revenues, margin expansion and a clean balance sheet with active capital returns. Notable near-term headwinds include sizable tariff pressure, an $85M restructuring charge (Quiet Logistics exit), inventory cost increases and planned elevated marketing that will weigh on first-half profitability. The company provided constructive 2026 guidance (mid-single-digit comps and operating profit of $390–$410M) and expects the majority of profit to be backloaded into the second half as tariffs anniversary and advertising spend normalizes.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Annual Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue reached a record $1.8 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Full-year 2025 revenue was a record $5.5 billion, up 3% versus prior year.
Negative Updates
Material Tariff Headwinds
Tariff pressure materially impacted margins: roughly $50 million of net tariff pressure in Q4 and approximately $130M+ on an annualized basis. Guidance assumes similar tariff levels and estimates ~$30M of tariff impact in each of Q1 and Q2.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Annual Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue reached a record $1.8 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Full-year 2025 revenue was a record $5.5 billion, up 3% versus prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to full‑year 2026 consolidated comparable‑sales growth in the mid‑single digits and operating profit of $390–410 million, with roughly 80% of annual operating profit expected in the second half; for Q1 they expect consolidated comps in the high single‑digits (American Eagle low single‑digits, Aerie/OFFLINE double‑digits), operating income of $20–25 million (which includes about $30 million of tariff headwinds), SG&A to be up roughly 10% year‑over‑year driven by elevated advertising (more than a 50% increase in ad spend in Q1–Q2), CapEx of $250–260 million for the year, ~35 new Aerie/OFFLINE store openings, about 60 store remodels and 25–30 AE closures, expected net annual savings of roughly $20 million from restructuring (after Q4 restructuring charges of ≈$85 million, $13 million cash), and an assumed ongoing tariff run‑rate that contributed ~ $50 million of net tariff pressure in Q4 and totals roughly $130M+ annually; management expects gross margin to be mid‑to‑high‑30s in Q1, a bit lower in Q2, and to expand in the back half as tariffs are anniversaryed.American Eagle Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.50B | 5.33B | 5.26B | 4.99B | 5.01B |
| Gross Profit | 1.81B | 1.88B | 1.81B | 1.54B | 1.83B |
| EBITDA | 539.79M | 658.86M | 477.02M | 404.98M | 756.43M |
| Net Income | 191.98M | 329.38M | 170.04M | 125.14M | 419.63M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.04B | 3.83B | 3.56B | 3.42B | 3.79B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 238.92M | 358.96M | 454.09M | 170.21M | 434.77M |
| Total Debt | 1.73B | 1.45B | 1.19B | 1.37B | 1.81B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.35B | 2.06B | 1.82B | 1.82B | 2.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.69B | 1.77B | 1.74B | 1.60B | 1.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 254.26M | 406.27M | 145.92M | 69.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 476.80M | 580.71M | 406.30M | 303.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -217.51M | -287.43M | -261.38M | -594.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -301.91M | -109.47M | -407.89M | -125.20M |
American Eagle Technical Analysis
Negative
16.52
Price Trends
22.31
Negative
22.31
Negative
17.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.81
Positive
24.82
Positive
8.43
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AEO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.08, below the 50-day MA of 22.31, and below the 200-day MA of 17.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.82 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AEO.
American Eagle Risk Analysis
American Eagle disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Eagle reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
American Eagle Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $2.60B | 11.34 | 45.18% | 6.82% | 4.67% | 3.46% | |
69 Neutral | $4.06B | 9.11 | 38.98% | ― | 7.57% | 1.75% | |
68 Neutral | $5.51B | 13.74 | 17.66% | ― | 11.09% | 51.51% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $2.80B | 20.90 | 12.12% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% | |
| ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
54 Neutral | $3.59B | 28.27 | 22.70% | ― | 2.97% | 9.85% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AEO
American Eagle
16.52
4.98
43.10%
ANF
Abercrombie Fitch
88.55
12.83
16.94%
BKE
Buckle
50.80
14.46
39.79%
FL
Foot Locker
―
―
―
URBN
Urban Outfitters
61.47
8.86
16.84%
VSCO
Victoria's Secret
44.56
25.01
127.93%
American Eagle Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Eagle Raises Q4 Outlook on Record Holiday Sales
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, American Eagle Outfitters reported record holiday sales for the 2025 fourth quarter-to-date period, with comparable sales through January 3, 2026 rising in the high single digits and strong performance across both its American...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.