Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $767.38M
• Dividend Yield: 0.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 176.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 76.2
• Beta (1Y): 2.43
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: General Transportation
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 77,435,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 203,876
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 176,101
• PEG Ratio: -1.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.49
• P/FCF Ratio: -141.81
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.61
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.83
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 51.36% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.04B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(0.91% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is held back primarily by weakening profitability and a sharp deterioration in cash generation (negative free cash flow), reinforced by bearish technical momentum (below major moving averages with negative MACD). These negatives are partly offset by improved balance-sheet leverage and a supportive corporate update featuring strong backlog/order trends and upbeat 2026 guidance, but valuation remains demanding with a high P/E and modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong top-line growth, backlog & guidance

Sustained demand is reflected in large backlog and elevated order intake which should convert into revenues over the next 12–18 months. Coupled with raised 2026 sales and EBITDA guidance, this provides durable revenue visibility and supports capacity planning and integration of recent acquisitions.

Improved leverage / stronger balance sheet

Significantly lower leverage reduces refinancing and solvency risk, giving management flexibility to invest in production, aftermarket service expansion and integration activities. A stronger capital structure also improves resilience to cyclical municipal spending fluctuations.

Aftermarket and service-driven recurring revenue

Aebi Schmidt's installed base and parts/service business create recurring, higher-margin cash streams that smooth cyclicality of equipment sales. Durable aftermarket demand supports long-term gross margins and lifecycle revenue per unit, enhancing cash predictability over 2–6 months and beyond.

Negative Factors

Deteriorating cash generation

A swing to negative free cash flow materially weakens internal funding capacity for capex, working capital and integration spend. Persistent weak cash conversion would force external financing or constrain investment in production and aftermarket capacity, raising execution risk.

Sharp margin compression

Significant margin erosion despite strong revenue growth indicates cost pressure or integration inefficiencies. Lower profitability reduces the company's ability to absorb input cost shocks, fund R&D or service expansion, and threatens sustainable earnings power absent margin recovery.

Weak returns on equity and earnings volatility

Very low ROE signals limited returns on the equity base and suggests recent growth has not translated into shareholder value. Combined with earnings volatility, this undermines long-term return prospects and raises the bar for management to demonstrate consistent operational improvement.

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Develops and manufactures specialty-purpose vehicles and attachments for snow clearance, de‑icing, sweeping, airport operations, and agricultural applications. Merged with The Shyft Group to create a global specialty vehicle leader.

How the Company Makes Money

Aebi Schmidt primarily makes money by selling specialized vehicles, machines, and mounted equipment used for municipal and infrastructure maintenance (e.g., street sweepers, winter service/snow and ice control equipment, and related road maintenance solutions). Revenue is also generated from aftermarket activities tied to its installed base—such as spare parts, consumables, service and maintenance work, and repairs—which can provide recurring income over the life of the equipment. In addition, the company can earn revenue from upgrades/retrofits and customer support services associated with keeping fleets operational (e.g., seasonal readiness and reliability work). Specific material partnerships, customer concentration, or segment revenue splits are not available (null).

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong 2025 revenue growth (~62% YoY) and improved leverage (debt-to-equity down to ~0.33 from ~1.27) are positives, but profitability weakened sharply (net margin ~0.6% vs ~2.8% in 2024) and cash generation deteriorated materially with free cash flow turning negative (~-$5.2M vs +$55.2M).

Income Statement

Revenue growth accelerated sharply in 2025 (up ~62% year over year), indicating strong top-line momentum. However, profitability weakened materially: net margin fell to ~0.6% in 2025 from ~2.8% in 2024, and EBITDA margin also declined (to ~4.8% from ~9.4%). Earnings are positive but appear volatile, suggesting the recent growth came with heavier cost pressure and/or integration ramp-up effects.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved significantly in 2025, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.33 from ~1.27 in 2024, implying a notably stronger capital structure. That said, returns on shareholder capital are currently low (ROE ~1.2% in 2025 versus ~8.4% in 2024), consistent with the sharp step-down in profitability. Overall, balance-sheet risk looks better, but earnings power versus the equity base is a near-term weakness.

Cash Flow

Cash generation deteriorated in 2025: operating cash flow fell sharply (to ~$9.0M from ~$68.8M in 2024) and free cash flow turned negative (about -$5.2M versus +$55.2M in 2024). Free cash flow also did not cover net income in 2025 (negative versus net income), pointing to weaker cash conversion and/or higher investment needs. The prior year showed strong cash performance, but the latest trend is a clear negative.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.53B	1.09B	1.02B
Gross Profit	304.05M	228.24M	206.65M
EBITDA	73.07M	102.18M	82.54M
Net Income	9.74M	30.68M	11.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.01B	1.09B	1.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	98.51M	65.17M	42.70M
Total Debt	269.27M	461.84M	509.65M
Total Liabilities	1.19B	722.95M	772.82M
Stockholders Equity	814.90M	365.09M	337.96M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-5.23M	55.16M	18.18M
Operating Cash Flow	8.97M	68.77M	30.09M
Investing Cash Flow	5.82M	-9.11M	-21.63M
Financing Cash Flow	16.35M	-35.43M	-22.35M

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAT	75 Outperform	$316.80B	30.12	45.10%	0.98%	-1.51%	-9.69%
GD	74 Outperform	$93.50B	21.58	17.57%	1.73%	11.86%	17.39%
DE	73 Outperform	$151.19B	54.83	18.93%	1.34%	-11.66%	-27.80%
GE	70 Outperform	$300.79B	37.76	45.88%	0.48%	-19.21%	31.83%
AGCO	66 Neutral	$7.91B	10.68	17.36%	1.10%	-20.09%	121.28%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AEBI	49 Neutral	$767.38M	76.20	1.65%	0.38%	―	―

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Corporate Events

Aebi Schmidt Issues 2026 Outlook and Board Reshuffle

Aebi Schmidt Group, the Nasdaq-listed specialty vehicles maker, reported preliminary unaudited figures showing 2025 net sales of $1.907 billion and expects adjusted EBITDA slightly above the midpoint of its $145 million to $165 million guidance. In the fourth quarter of 2025, order intake surged 46% year-on-year, driving order backlog to a multi-year record of about $1.2 billion and setting up expected revenue conversion over the next 15 months.

The company issued 2026 guidance on Feb. 24, 2026, forecasting net sales between $1.95 billion and $2.15 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $175 million to $195 million, underpinned by merger synergies and a recovery in walk-in-van demand. Aebi Schmidt also unveiled a governance reshuffle for its 2026 AGM, with CEO Barend Fruithof to be nominated as chairman as long-serving directors James Sharman, Peter Spuhler and Paul Mascarenas retire, shrinking the board from 11 to eight members and signaling a new phase of integrated leadership after the Shyft acquisition and Nasdaq listing in 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (AEBI) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aebi Schmidt Holding AG stock, see the AEBI Stock Forecast page.