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Adobe
(NASDAQ:ADBE)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$283.00
▲(25.72% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/12/26
The score is driven by strong underlying financial quality (margins, earnings power, cash conversion) and supportive valuation (low P/E). This is partially offset by weak technicals (price below key moving averages, negative MACD) and near-term execution/timing risks discussed on the earnings call (freemium-led ARR headwind and leadership transitions).
Positive Factors
Recurring subscription revenue & ARR momentum
Adobe's large, growing ARR and subscription revenue provide durable, predictable cash flows and high visibility into future revenue. A $27.1B ARR book plus double-digit subscription revenue growth supports steady renewals, seat expansion and cross-sell across Creative, Document and Experience franchises.
Negative Factors
Freemium pivot creates ARR headwind
Prioritizing freemium MAU to capture AI-driven engagement changes conversion timing and monetization cadence. Management expects an explicit ARR headwind and multi-quarter payback, which can depress ARR and subscription revenue growth rates and complicate multi-period forecasting through 2027.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring subscription revenue & ARR momentum
Adobe's large, growing ARR and subscription revenue provide durable, predictable cash flows and high visibility into future revenue. A $27.1B ARR book plus double-digit subscription revenue growth supports steady renewals, seat expansion and cross-sell across Creative, Document and Experience franchises.
Read all positive factors
Adobe Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales by region (e.g., Americas, EMEA, APAC), revealing where Adobe is strongest, where growth is accelerating or slowing, and how currency or regional exposure could affect future results.
Breaks down sales by region (e.g., Americas, EMEA, APAC), revealing where Adobe is strongest, where growth is accelerating or slowing, and how currency or regional exposure could affect future results.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdobe (ADBE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$99.54B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth11.49%
EPS Growth11.45%
CountryUS
Employees31,360
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.50
Shares Outstanding397,500,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,188,507
30 Day Avg. Volume7,056,580
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.55
Price to Book (P/B)11.73
Price to Sales (P/S)5.74
P/FCF Ratio13.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$253.90Price Target Upside12.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering28
EPS Forecast (FY)24.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.51B
Adobe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is a software company that provides cloud-based applications and services for digital media creation, document management, and digital experience/marketing workflows. Its products are organized primarily across Creative Cloud (to...
How the Company Makes Money
Adobe primarily generates revenue through recurring subscriptions to its cloud software and services. The largest revenue stream is subscriptions to Creative Cloud plans (e.g., Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro, After Effects, Lightroom, and re...
Adobe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operating and financial positives — record revenue, ARR growth, large MAU and traffic gains, rapid AI‑first and Firefly ARR traction, sizable SEMrush acquisition, and healthy cash flow and buybacks. Management also articulated a strategic pivot to aggressively grow freemium MAU to capture the AI‑driven opportunity. That pivot and the decision to defer Creative Cloud pricing/line optimizations create an explicit near‑term ARR headwind, plus a small non‑cash impairment and leadership transitions add short‑term risk. On balance, the fundamental business momentum, AI traction, and raised financial targets outweigh the near‑term trade‑offs and risks.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and EPS Growth
Q2 revenue of $6.62 billion, up 11% year‑over‑year (13% as reported). GAAP EPS of $4.25 (+8% YoY) and non‑GAAP EPS of $5.96 (+18% YoY). Management cited record top‑line revenue and disciplined investments as drivers of EPS growth.
Negative Updates
Near‑term ARR Headwind from Freemium Push
Company announced a strategic shift to accelerate freemium acquisition (Adobe and Firefly) and will prioritize MAU growth over near‑term ARR. Management acknowledged this will lower second‑half ARR expectations and be a short‑term headwind to ARR growth; they expect payback to play out over 2027.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and EPS Growth
Q2 revenue of $6.62 billion, up 11% year‑over‑year (13% as reported). GAAP EPS of $4.25 (+8% YoY) and non‑GAAP EPS of $5.96 (+18% YoY). Management cited record top‑line revenue and disciplined investments as drivers of EPS growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Adobe raised full‑year FY26 financial targets, now guiding total revenue of $20.5–20.6 billion and non‑GAAP EPS of $24.35–24.45 (GAAP EPS $17.90–18.00), with Business Professionals & Consumers subscription revenue of $7.44–7.48 billion and Creative & Marketing Professionals subscription revenue of $18.21–18.27 billion (including roughly $280M from the SEMrush acquisition); it targets total Adobe ARR growth of 10.2% year‑over‑year off a $25.6B beginning book (Q2 ending ARR was $27.1B, +12.5% Y/Y, with SEMrush adding about $480M ARR). For Q3 FY26 Adobe guides revenue of $6.67–6.72 billion, BP&C subscription revenue of $1.87–1.89 billion, Creative & Marketing subscription revenue of $4.61–4.64 billion, GAAP EPS $4.40–4.45 and non‑GAAP EPS $6.05–6.10; FY assumptions include a ~45% non‑GAAP operating margin (Q3 ~44%), a GAAP tax rate ~22.5% (Q3 ~23%) and a non‑GAAP tax rate ~18%. Q2 exit metrics disclosed: total customer group subscription revenue $6.39B (+14% Y/Y), RPO $22.27B (+13% Y/Y), operating cash flow $2.17B, cash & short‑term investments $5.63B, ~8.5M shares repurchased in the quarter and roughly $27B remaining under buyback authorizations.Adobe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.20B | 23.77B | 21.50B | 19.41B | 17.61B | 15.79B |
| Gross Profit | 22.46B | 21.06B | 19.15B | 17.05B | 15.44B | 13.92B |
| EBITDA | 9.94B | 9.75B | 7.96B | 7.78B | 7.05B | 6.67B |
| Net Income | 7.23B | 7.13B | 5.56B | 5.43B | 4.76B | 4.82B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 29.93B | 29.50B | 30.23B | 29.78B | 27.16B | 27.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.63B | 6.59B | 7.89B | 7.84B | 6.10B | 5.80B |
| Total Debt | 7.07B | 6.65B | 6.06B | 4.08B | 4.63B | 4.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.41B | 17.87B | 16.13B | 13.26B | 13.11B | 12.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.52B | 11.62B | 14.11B | 16.52B | 14.05B | 14.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.63B | 9.85B | 7.82B | 6.94B | 7.40B | 6.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.83B | 10.03B | 8.06B | 7.30B | 7.84B | 7.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.72B | -1.19B | 149.00M | 776.00M | -570.00M | -3.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.45B | -11.06B | -7.72B | -5.18B | -6.83B | -4.30B |
Adobe Technical Analysis
Positive
225.11
Price Trends
228.34
Positive
237.38
Positive
276.45
Negative
Market Momentum
0.51
Negative
51.43
Neutral
18.22
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADBE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 225.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 231.08, below the 50-day MA of 228.34, and below the 200-day MA of 276.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.22 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADBE.
Adobe Risk Analysis
Adobe disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adobe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adobe Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $3.45T | 25.82 | 35.39% | 0.93% | 17.79% | 31.42% | |
76 Outperform | $99.54B | 14.31 | 62.39% | ― | 11.49% | 11.45% | |
75 Outperform | $49.42B | 33.94 | 49.42% | ― | 18.88% | 46.42% | |
72 Outperform | $74.44B | 87.95 | 2.64% | ― | 39.60% | -69.00% | |
62 Neutral | $12.85B | -8.28 | -101.33% | ― | 41.42% | -88.39% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $13.84B | -20.20 | -21.33% | ― | 7.55% | -39.50% |
* Technology Sector Average
ADBE
Adobe
250.41
-88.44
-26.10%
ADSK
Autodesk
234.20
-68.30
-22.58%
MSFT
Microsoft
464.72
-66.67
-12.55%
SNPS
Synopsys
388.76
-247.26
-38.88%
U
Unity Software
31.71
-2.30
-6.76%
FIG
Figma, Inc. Class A
24.32
-64.28
-72.55%
Adobe Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Adobe bolsters executive retention amid CEO transition
Neutral
Jul 17, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Adobe’s Executive Compensation Committee approved a retention letter for executive Louise Pentland that provides defined severance benefits if she is terminated without cause or resigns for good reason. The package includes...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Adobe posts record Q2 revenue and raises 2026 outlook
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Adobe reported record second-quarter FY2026 revenue of $6.62 billion, up 13% year on year, driven by strong AI-related demand and subscription growth across both business professionals and creative and marketing customers. The co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.