Ambev SA (ABEV)
NYSE:ABEV
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Ambev SA
(NYSE:ABEV)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$3.00
â–˛(6.38% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
ABEV scores well primarily due to resilient financial fundamentals—strong margins and an exceptionally low-leverage balance sheet—supported by attractive income characteristics (high dividend yield). Momentum is positive but technically overbought, and earnings-call takeaways remain constructive on margins and digital growth while highlighting near-term volume and cost pressures.
Positive Factors
High profitability/margins
Sustained, above-industry gross and operating margins (and a 33.4% EBITDA margin in 2025) provide structural earnings resilience. High margins support cash generation, allow reinvestment in brands and distribution, and buffer the business against cyclical volume shocks over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Volume decline/pressure
Persistent volume declines and out‑of‑home consumption sensitivity signal a mature, pressured top line. If volumes remain weak, revenue growth will depend on pricing, premiumization and mix shifts, requiring sustained trade investment and potentially limiting long-term top‑line expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability/margins
Sustained, above-industry gross and operating margins (and a 33.4% EBITDA margin in 2025) provide structural earnings resilience. High margins support cash generation, allow reinvestment in brands and distribution, and buffer the business against cyclical volume shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Ambev SA (ABEV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$44.61B
Dividend Yield8.22%
Average Volume (3M)22.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)0.13
Revenue Growth-0.68%
EPS Growth4.29%
CountryUS
Employees43,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding15,761,639,000
10 Day Avg. Volume26,637,598
30 Day Avg. Volume22,226,836
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.79
Price to Book (P/B)2.40
Price to Sales (P/S)2.39
P/FCF Ratio10.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.12Price Target Upside10.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.58B
Ambev SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and sells beer, draft beer, carbonated soft drinks, other non-alcoholic beverages, malt, and food products in the Americas. The company operates through four segments: Brazil; Central Am...
How the Company Makes Money
Ambev makes money primarily by producing and selling beverages—especially beer—under a portfolio of brands, earning revenue when products are delivered to or sold through retailers, bars/restaurants, wholesalers, and other distribution partners. I...
Ambev SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a cautiously positive tone: management highlights clear progress on margin expansion, revenue per hectoliter growth, strong digital ecosystem performance (BEES and Zé Delivery), meaningful shareholder returns, and disciplined cost execution — all offsetting significant cyclical volume headwinds largely attributed to weather and occasion disruption. While several operating and macro challenges (volumes, FX losses, near-term cost inflation, and regional softness) are material, the balance of results shows resilient profitability, strategic momentum in digital and premium segments, and confidence in a gradual recovery into 2026.Positive Updates
Consolidated Margin Expansion and Profitability
Consolidated normalized EBITDA margin expanded 50 bps to 33.4% in 2025; Brazil Beer EBITDA margin expanded ~110 bps. Normalized EBITDA growth was delivered across the portfolio, and the company reported stated net income of ~BRL 16 billion with stated EPS up 8.2% YoY and normalized EPS up 2% YoY.
Negative Updates
Volume Pressure and Industry Softness
Volumes were pressured across the footprint in 2025, driven largely by cyclical and occasion-related headwinds (notably prolonged cold weather/La Niña), with October representing the main drag; although Q4 and December improved, overall volume trends were weak.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Margin Expansion and Profitability
Consolidated normalized EBITDA margin expanded 50 bps to 33.4% in 2025; Brazil Beer EBITDA margin expanded ~110 bps. Normalized EBITDA growth was delivered across the portfolio, and the company reported stated net income of ~BRL 16 billion with stated EPS up 8.2% YoY and normalized EPS up 2% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ambev’s explicit 2026 guidance centers on cost pressure and continued margin focus: Brazil Beer cash COGS per hectoliter (ex‑non‑Ambev marketplace) is guided to rise 4.5–7.5% (vs. a 6.1% increase in 2025, which landed in the first quartile of last year’s 5.5–8.5% guidance), while management reiterated the ambition to expand consolidated EBITDA margin over time after 2025 delivered +50 bps to 33.4% (Brazil Beer +110 bps) aided by net revenue per hectoliter +7.5%; other disclosed metrics to frame the outlook include BEES GMV +70% and gross margin +3.5 pp, Zé Delivery GMV BRL 4.7bn (+13%), 67m orders and 27m annual active users (+11%), 2025 operating cash flow BRL 24.5bn, CapEx ~BRL 5bn, cash returned BRL 21.7bn (~90% of OCF) including ~BRL 20bn in shareholder returns (BRL 13.2bn dividends, BRL 4.2bn IOC, BRL 2.5bn buyback, with BRL 1.2bn IOC tranche already paid), near‑BRL 4bn net financial expenses, stated net income ~BRL 16bn, stated EPS +8.2% and normalized EPS +2%, and an effective tax rate of 17.7% (absent one‑offs ~20%); management reiterated capital allocation priorities (reinvest organic growth, selective M&A, return excess cash) and said it will monitor hedges, commodities (aluminum highlighted) and portfolio mix and update guidance as the year progresses.Ambev SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 88.24B | 89.45B | 79.74B | 79.71B | 72.85B |
| Gross Profit | 45.38B | 45.84B | 40.45B | 39.29B | 37.19B |
| EBITDA | 26.32B | 29.01B | 24.27B | 23.08B | 20.99B |
| Net Income | 15.50B | 14.44B | 14.50B | 14.46B | 12.67B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 148.11B | 162.51B | 132.64B | 137.96B | 138.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.32B | 29.84B | 16.34B | 15.38B | 18.54B |
| Total Debt | 5.35B | 3.45B | 3.50B | 3.85B | 3.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 59.34B | 62.93B | 52.50B | 54.63B | 54.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 87.91B | 98.64B | 78.97B | 81.96B | 82.64B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.86B | 21.35B | 18.71B | 14.11B | 15.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.45B | 26.10B | 24.71B | 20.64B | 22.90B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.95B | -5.46B | -5.77B | -5.00B | -7.73B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -26.77B | -10.35B | -16.12B | -16.34B | -16.04B |
Ambev SA Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.82
Price Trends
2.91
Negative
2.65
Positive
2.41
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
44.34
Neutral
48.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABEV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.91, below the 50-day MA of 2.91, and above the 200-day MA of 2.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ABEV.
Ambev SA Risk Analysis
Ambev SA disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ambev SA reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
New ESG regulations may be enacted and this may result in increased costs for Ambev to comply with them. Q4, 2023
2.
Our commitment to social responsibility may result in the incurrence of additional costs, and we are subject to laws, regulations and other obligations in furtherance of human rights, social justice and labor standards that may exposes us to additional contingencies. Q4, 2023
3.
Continuing high rates of inflation in Argentina may have an adverse effect on the economy and our business, financial condition and results of operations. Q4, 2023
Ambev SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $44.61B | 12.14 | 16.90% | 8.22% | -0.68% | 4.29% | |
70 Outperform | $21.58B | 35.36 | 7.60% | 4.33% | 1.44% | -38.87% | |
68 Neutral | $136.05B | 10.54 | 12.35% | 1.83% | -2.06% | 21.03% | |
67 Neutral | $26.08B | 11.96 | 15.12% | 2.92% | -5.57% | 119.49% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
53 Neutral | $2.01B | 19.13 | 7.86% | 2.53% | 16.59% | 1.72% | |
49 Neutral | $8.32B | ― | -18.18% | 4.08% | -4.01% | -339.22% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.82
0.67
31.22%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
67.94
6.72
10.97%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
10.76
-4.60
-29.96%
STZ
Constellation Brands
150.41
-29.24
-16.27%
FMX
Fomento Economico Mexicano
106.96
14.59
15.79%
TAP
Molson Coors
41.91
-16.71
-28.50%
Ambev SA Corporate Events
Ambev Board Accepts IT Vice President’s Resignation Effective March 4, 2026
Mar 12, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Ambev’s board of directors met in São Paulo with its full slate of members, chaired by Michel Dimitrios Doukeris, following due call under the company’s bylaws. The meeting, later reported to the U.S. Securit...
Ambev Discloses February 2026 Treasury Share Movements Under CVM Rule
Mar 10, 2026
In February 2026, Ambev S.A. reported that the only transactions involving its own securities were related to the delivery of restricted shares held in treasury, in compliance with Brazilian securities regulation CVM Instruction No. 44/2021. Over ...
Ambev Discloses February 2026 Insider Trading Activity by Management and Board
Mar 10, 2026
From February 1 to 28, 2026, Ambev reported that members of its board of directors and related parties made no trades in the company’s shares or ADRs, with their consolidated holdings unchanged at 30,400,903 common shares and 468,040 ADRs. O...
Ambev Files 2025 Form 20-F With U.S. SEC, Offers ADR Holders Free Hard Copies
Mar 4, 2026
Ambev S.A. informed investors that its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, was filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 3, 2026. The filing, which includes the company’s complete aud...
Ambev Files Routine February 2026 Form 6-K as Foreign Private Issuer
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, Ambev S.A. submitted a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, reaffirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial and Investor Relations Office...
Ambev Board Approves 2025 Financials and Sets April IOC Payment
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Ambev’s board of directors met by videoconference in São Paulo and unanimously approved the management report, management accounts and financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The documents...
Ambev Sets April Payment Date for First 2026 Interest-on-Capital Tranche
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Ambev’s board approved the payment schedule for the first tranche of previously authorized interest on own capital, tied to a distribution decision made on December 9, 2025. Shareholders of record on December 18, 2025 a...
Ambev Posts 2025 Earnings Growth Despite Volume Drop and Sets April Payout Date
Feb 12, 2026
Ambev reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 12, 2026, showing a 3.3% decline in total volumes for the year, with drops across Brazil, Latin America South, Central America and the Caribbean, and Canada. Despite softer v...
Ambev Fiscal Council Clears 2025 Financial Statements and Payout Proposals
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Ambev’s Fiscal Council met at the company’s São Paulo headquarters and reviewed the financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The council members formally approved the management repor...
Ambev Projects Higher 2026 Cash COGS for Brazilian Beer Business
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Ambev disclosed that it expects cash cost of goods sold per hectoliter for its Brazilian beer business to rise between 4.5% and 7.5% in full-year 2026, excluding non-Ambev marketplace sales and based on current commodity pric...
Ambev Discloses January 2026 Insider Trading and Holdings Data
Feb 11, 2026
Ambev disclosed that, between January 1 and 31, 2026, members of its board of directors and management reported their positions and trades in the company’s common shares and ADRs, as required by Brazilian securities regulator CVM Instruction...
Ambev Reports No Treasury Share Transactions in January 2026
Feb 11, 2026
In a regulatory filing dated February 11, 2026, Ambev S.A. reported that in January 2026 it carried out no transactions in its own securities or derivatives, as required under Brazilian securities regulator CVM Instruction 44/2021. The company dis...
Ambev Discloses December Treasury Share Deliveries for Restricted Stock
Jan 9, 2026
In December 2025, Ambev S.A. reported movements in its own shares held in treasury, disclosing transactions carried out under Brazilian securities regulations. Over the month, the company delivered a total of roughly 23.97 million common shares fr...
Ambev Discloses December 2025 Insider and Management Share Transactions
Jan 9, 2026
In a regulatory filing for the period from December 1 to 31, 2025, Ambev S.A. disclosed consolidated transactions in its shares and ADRs carried out by members of its board of directors and management, as required by Brazilian securities regulatio...
Ambev S.A. Sets Date for Ordinary Shareholders’ Meeting on April 30, 2026
Jan 5, 2026
On January 5, 2026, Ambev S.A. announced that it will hold its ordinary shareholders’ meeting on April 30, 2026, in compliance with applicable Brazilian corporate legislation. Details and documentation for the meeting will be provided at a l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.