Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Alcoa (AA)
NYSE:AA
Top Page
Alcoa
(NYSE:AA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$70.00
▲(21.80% Upside)
AA scores well primarily on improving financial strength (sharp 2025 earnings recovery and markedly lower leverage) and bullish technicals (price above key moving averages with positive momentum). The score is moderated by cyclicality/FCF variability, a modest dividend yield, and 2026 guidance headwinds (higher spending and restart-related losses) despite strong recent execution.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
A material reduction in reported debt and stronger equity materially lowers financial risk, improving Alcoa's ability to fund sustaining capex, pursue selective growth, and withstand commodity cycles. This balance-sheet flexibility supports durable capital allocation and creditor confidence.
Recovered Cash Generation
Re-established positive operating and free cash flow provides the company with recurring internal funding for sustaining and return-seeking investments, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. Sustained cash generation increases strategic optionality across cycles.
Operational Execution & Technology Progress
Consistent production records across smelters and refineries demonstrate operational reliability and unit-cost improvement. Progress on ELYSIS inert-anode tech positions Alcoa for long-term demand from low-carbon aluminum markets, potentially securing premium contracts and regulatory advantage.
Negative Factors
Earnings Cyclicality
Alcoa's earnings and revenue have shown material multi-year volatility, including a sizeable 2023 loss. Persistent cyclicality in aluminum markets can lead to unstable margins, irregular free cash flow and uneven returns, complicating long-term planning and capital allocation.
Higher 2026 Spending and Restart Losses
Elevated sustaining, environmental and restart-related spending will consume cash and free cash flow in 2026, limiting near-term capacity for debt paydown or shareholder returns. These structural outlays can depress free cash flow for multiple quarters and constrain financial flexibility.
Alumina Pricing Pressure
Weakness in alumina prices directly reduces refinery profitability and can persist if global supply increases. Lower alumina economics pressure segment margins, may trigger asset write-downs, and reduce integrated aluminum margins over a multi-year horizon absent structural market improvement.
Alcoa (AA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.52B
Dividend Yield0.75%
Average Volume (3M)8.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.6
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth20.08%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees13,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.26
Shares Outstanding258,964,020
10 Day Avg. Volume8,081,225
30 Day Avg. Volume8,629,294
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.26
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio24.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.63Price Target Upside0.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)4.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.87B
Alcoa Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAlcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it owns hydro power plants that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlcoa generates revenue primarily through the sale of aluminum products, which include primary aluminum, rolled products, and extrusions. The company also earns income from its bauxite and alumina segments, supplying these essential raw materials for its aluminum production. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major customers in sectors such as aerospace and automotive, as well as spot market sales. Alcoa benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its market presence and operational efficiency. Additionally, the company invests in research and development to innovate and improve its products, which can lead to higher margins and new revenue opportunities.
Alcoa Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Sales by Segment
Breaks down revenue from each business unit, offering insights into which segments are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Breaks down revenue from each business unit, offering insights into which segments are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAlcoa Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong fourth-quarter operational execution, sequential revenue growth (+15%), a sizable sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA (+$276M) and robust cash generation (Q4 cash $1.6B, FY free cash flow $594M). Management advanced strategic initiatives (ELYSIS milestone, site monetization negotiations, WA permitting progress) and achieved record production at multiple assets. Offsetting these positives were one-time and near-term headwinds: a $144M goodwill impairment, a $70M mark-to-market loss, pressure in the alumina segment (lower prices and a $36M sequential EBITDA decline), and short-term costs related to the San Ciprian restart and increased environmental and sustaining CapEx. Management expects to remain within a disciplined capital framework, with the balance sheet at target range and continued focus on debt repayment and selective shareholder returns. Overall, operational and financial momentum materially outweighs the notable one-time charges and near-term restart and market pressures.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Sequential Revenue Growth
Revenue increased 15% sequentially to $3.4 billion, driven by a 21% increase in aluminum third-party revenue and a 3% increase in alumina third-party revenue.
Strong Adjusted Profitability and EBITDA Expansion
Adjusted net income attributable to Alcoa was $335 million (or $1.26 per share) excluding $109 million of net special items. Adjusted EBITDA was $546 million, representing a sequential increase of $276 million driven primarily by higher metal prices and premiums.
Robust Cash Position and Free Cash Flow
Ended December with $1.6 billion cash. Full-year free cash flow (including net non-controlling interest) was $594 million, with $294 million generated in the fourth quarter.
Return on Equity and Capital Returned to Shareholders
Return on equity for 2025 was 16.4% (highest since 2022). The company returned $105 million to stockholders during the year via $0.10 per share quarterly dividends.
Operational Records and Production Momentum
Achieved annual production records at five smelters and one refinery in Q4; Dechambault achieved 16 consecutive years of increased production and Mosjøen achieved eight consecutive years of record performance. San Ciprian restart progressed to ~65% capacity at year-end 2025.
Aluminum Market Strength and Premiums
LME aluminum prices rose 8% sequentially in Q4 and reached ~$3,200/metric ton recently. Regional premiums (e.g., Midwest and Rotterdam) strengthened, with Midwest premium increases fully offsetting tariff costs on Canada-to-U.S. shipments.
Strategic and Technology Milestones
ELYSIS successfully started up a 450 kA inert anode cell (major R&D milestone toward low-carbon aluminum). Progress on monetizing transformation sites with ongoing negotiations and multiple sites under discussion.
Balance Sheet Target Achieved
Adjusted net debt finished the year at the high end of the target range (~$1.5 billion) and management indicated they reached roughly $1.46 billion at a point, providing room to prioritize debt repayment and potential returns/growth.
Negative Updates
Goodwill Impairment Charge
Recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $144 million in the Alumina segment (annual goodwill assessment) due to current alumina prices; no goodwill remains after the charge.
Market Losses and Special Items
Recorded a $70 million mark-to-market loss on Ma'aden shares and had multiple special items offset by a $133 million tax valuation allowance reversal; net special items were $109 million.
Alumina Pricing Pressure and Segment EBITDA Decline
Alumina segment adjusted EBITDA decreased by $36 million sequentially due primarily to lower alumina prices; guidance expects alumina performance to be unfavorable by ~ $30 million in 2026 driven by maintenance cycles and lower shipping volumes.
San Ciprian Restart and Combined Site Losses
San Ciprian restart was ~65% complete at year-end; combined smelter and refinery EBITDA loss guidance for 2026 is approximately $75–100 million (majority from the refinery) with expected free cash flow consumption of ~$100–130 million in 2026.
Operational Disruption at Alumar Smelter
Alumar experienced setbacks in Q4 due to power interruptions affecting stability; near-term production to remain similar to Q4 levels while stabilization efforts continue.
Increased Near-Term Cash and Spending Pressures
2026 guidance includes higher sustaining capital ($675 million), total CapEx of $750 million (up $97 million in sustaining capex vs 2025), environmental and ARO spending ~ $325 million, and estimated net prior-year tax payments of ~$230 million (including Ma'aden capital gains tax). Management expects typical Q1 working capital cash consumption.
Aluminum Segment Headwinds in 2026
Aluminum segment expected to be unfavorable by ~$70 million in 2026 due to non-recurrence of CO2 compensation credits recorded in Q4 and additional operating costs from San Ciprian restart, partially offset by ~ $40 million favorable alumina cost.
Industry and Market Risks
FOB WA alumina prices remained under pressure, placing many refineries (notably ~60% of China refineries) under stress; potential increases in Guinea supply and restarted licenses could pressure bauxite prices. No material greenfield expansion plans or ELYSIS commercial deployment expected before 2030.
Company Guidance
Alcoa's 2026 guidance targets alumina production of 9.7–9.9 million tons and shipments of 11.8–12.0 million tons, aluminum production of 2.4–2.6 million tons and shipments of 2.6–2.8 million tons; it anticipates $100 million of transformation costs and ~ $160 million of other corporate expense, depreciation of ~ $630 million, non‑operating pension & OPEB expense of ~ $35 million (with required cash funding ~ $60 million), interest expense of ~ $140 million, and an operational tax expense of ~$65–75 million; cash and investment plans include $750 million of capex (sustaining $675M, return‑seeking $75M, sustaining up $97M including ~$65M for Australian mine moves), ~ $325 million of environmental/ARO spend, and ~ $230 million of net prior‑year income tax payments (including the Ma’aden tax); at the segment level Alcoa expects alumina performance ~ $30 million unfavorable and aluminum ~ $70 million unfavorable (partially offset by ~ $40 million favorable alumina cost in aluminum), and it will prioritize staying within its $1.0–1.5 billion adjusted net‑debt target (ended 2025 near the $1.5B high end) while balancing additional debt repayment, disciplined capital returns and value‑creating growth.Alcoa Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show a meaningful 2025 rebound (net income up to $1.15B and operating cash flow $1.19B) alongside sharply reduced leverage (debt down dramatically and equity up). The main constraint on the score is cyclicality and uneven multi-year profitability and free cash flow, including prior losses and negative FCF in 2023.Income Statement
Profitability improved materially in 2025, with net income rebounding to $1.15B from $60M in 2024 and a return to solid operating profit. However, the earnings profile remains cyclical and uneven: 2023 posted a large net loss and 2022 was also negative despite healthy operating profit. Revenue has been volatile as well (down ~4% in 2025 after growth in 2024), indicating end-market and pricing sensitivity.64
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet strengthened notably in 2025, with total debt dropping to ~$1M from $2.82B in 2024 while equity increased to $6.13B and assets rose to $16.21B. This sharply reduces financial risk and gives the company much greater flexibility through the cycle. The key weakness is that prior years showed meaningful leverage (e.g., 2024 debt-to-equity ~0.55), so the improvement is recent and should be watched for durability.86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation recovered in 2025, with operating cash flow of $1.19B and free cash flow of $567M. That said, free cash flow declined ~13% versus 2024, and the longer history shows significant volatility, including negative free cash flow in 2023. Overall, cash flow is positive but not yet consistently stable across the cycle.61
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.74B | 12.18B | 10.71B | 12.76B | 12.44B |
| Gross Profit | 1.73B | 1.50B | 241.00M | 1.93B | 2.62B |
| EBITDA | 1.86B | 1.09B | 155.00M | 1.43B | 2.06B |
| Net Income | 1.15B | 60.00M | -651.00M | -123.00M | 429.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.21B | 14.06B | 14.15B | 14.76B | 15.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.60B | 1.14B | 944.00M | 1.36B | 1.81B |
| Total Debt | 1.00M | 2.82B | 1.97B | 1.87B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.00B | 8.91B | 8.31B | 8.17B | 8.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.13B | 5.16B | 4.25B | 5.08B | 4.67B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 567.00M | 42.00M | -440.00M | 342.00M | 530.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.19B | 622.00M | 91.00M | 822.00M | 920.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -502.00M | -608.00M | -585.00M | -495.00M | 565.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -261.00M | 201.00M | 57.00M | -768.00M | -1.16B |
Alcoa Technical Analysis
Neutral
57.47
Price Trends
56.45
Positive
46.72
Positive
38.13
Positive
Market Momentum
0.72
Positive
46.50
Neutral
42.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 57.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.27, above the 50-day MA of 56.45, and above the 200-day MA of 38.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AA.
Alcoa Risk Analysis
Alcoa disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alcoa reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alcoa Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $15.52B | 13.56 | 20.73% | 0.75% | 20.08% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $2.28B | 25.36 | 12.41% | 2.64% | 7.69% | 91.86% | |
67 Neutral | $8.83B | 20.52 | 10.51% | 1.02% | -1.61% | -81.36% | |
66 Neutral | $15.14B | 74.44 | 8.88% | 0.07% | 45.61% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $3.21B | 28.98 | 12.22% | ― | 8.48% | 12.10% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $4.30B | 57.65 | 12.22% | ― | 20.15% | -72.89% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AA
Alcoa
60.21
24.49
68.56%
CENX
Century Aluminum
50.22
29.38
140.98%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
78.69
27.69
54.29%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
22.02
16.65
310.06%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
139.38
70.51
102.37%
CSTM
Constellium
25.64
16.57
182.69%
Alcoa Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alcoa Announces Redemption of 5.500% Notes
Neutral
Nov 25, 2025
On November 25, 2025, Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., a subsidiary of Alcoa Corporation, announced its intention to redeem all outstanding 5.500% Notes due 2027, totaling $141 million. The redemption, scheduled for December 15, 2025, will be funded using Alcoa’s cash reserves, which stood at $1.49 billion as of September 30, 2025. This move reflects Alcoa’s strategic financial management and could impact its financial position and stakeholder interests.
The most recent analyst rating on (AA) stock is a Sell with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alcoa stock, see the AA Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.