Alcoa (AA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.64B
• Dividend Yield: 1.07%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.79
• Revenue Growth: 21.32%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,900
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 258,914,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,692,558
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,878,059
• PEG Ratio: -1.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 191.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.00
• 1Y Price Target: $38.17
• Price Target Upside: 7.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $42.00 ▲(17.81% Upside)

Alcoa's overall stock score reflects a strong financial recovery and positive technical indicators, which are the most significant factors. While the valuation is reasonable, the mixed sentiment from the earnings call and past volatility in financial performance slightly temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

The investment in modernizing the Massena smelter, supported by a new energy contract, enhances operational efficiency and sustainability, which can lead to long-term cost savings and improved production capabilities.

Strategic Partnerships

The strategic partnership for gallium plant development strengthens Alcoa's position in the critical mineral supply chain, potentially opening new revenue streams and enhancing market competitiveness.

Revenue Growth

Increased revenue in the Aluminum segment, driven by higher prices, indicates strong demand and pricing power, contributing to sustained revenue growth and profitability.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

The decline in revenue due to lower alumina prices and volumes highlights challenges in maintaining growth momentum, which could impact future financial performance if not addressed.

Increased Tariff Costs

Rising tariff costs on aluminum imports increase operational expenses, potentially squeezing margins and affecting the company's competitive position in the U.S. market.

Workplace Safety

The workplace fatality underscores the importance of safety, which, if not improved, could lead to operational disruptions, regulatory scrutiny, and reputational damage.

Alcoa Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it owns hydro power plants that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Alcoa generates revenue primarily through the sale of aluminum and alumina, with its revenue model primarily based on the production and distribution of these core products. Key revenue streams include the sale of primary aluminum, alumina, and fabricated aluminum products, as well as aluminum recycling services. The company benefits from long-term contracts with major customers in the aerospace and automotive industries, which provide stable revenue sources. Additionally, Alcoa's operational efficiency and focus on cost management contribute to its profitability. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its market reach and operational capabilities, further contributing to its earnings.

Alcoa Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alcoa's financial performance shows a strong recovery with improvements in profitability, leverage, and cash flow metrics. The company has managed to enhance margins and cash generation, although past volatility remains a risk.

Income Statement

Alcoa's income statement shows a strong recovery with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.45% and significant improvements in profitability metrics. The gross profit margin increased to 18.70% in TTM, and the net profit margin rose to 7.66%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved, reflecting better cost management. However, the company experienced volatility in previous years, with negative net income in 2022 and 2023, which could pose a risk if not managed well.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43 in TTM, showing a manageable level of leverage. The return on equity improved significantly to 17.96%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure. However, the company needs to maintain this trajectory to mitigate past fluctuations in equity returns.

Cash Flow

Alcoa's cash flow statement highlights robust growth in free cash flow, with a TTM growth rate of 67.24%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.34, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.52 suggests efficient cash conversion. Despite past challenges, the recent improvements in cash flow metrics are promising for future liquidity and investment capacity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	13.10B	12.18B	10.71B	12.76B	12.44B	9.37B
Gross Profit	2.45B	1.50B	241.00M	1.93B	2.62B	765.00M
EBITDA	2.17B	1.09B	155.00M	1.43B	2.06B	972.00M
Net Income	1.00B	60.00M	-651.00M	-123.00M	429.00M	-170.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.99B	14.06B	14.15B	14.76B	15.03B	14.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.51B	1.14B	944.00M	1.36B	1.81B	1.61B
Total Debt	2.65B	2.82B	1.97B	1.87B	1.87B	2.62B
Total Liabilities	8.76B	8.91B	8.31B	8.17B	8.74B	9.84B
Stockholders Equity	6.13B	5.16B	4.25B	5.08B	4.67B	3.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	582.00M	42.00M	-440.00M	342.00M	530.00M	41.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.12B	622.00M	91.00M	822.00M	920.00M	394.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-567.00M	-608.00M	-585.00M	-495.00M	565.00M	-167.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-468.00M	201.00M	57.00M	-768.00M	-1.16B	514.00M

Alcoa Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 35.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.29, above the 50-day MA of 33.11, and above the 200-day MA of 31.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AA.

Alcoa Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AA	75 Outperform	$9.64B	9.55	20.01%	1.07%	21.32%	―
CMC	72 Outperform	$6.50B	78.99	1.99%	1.21%	-1.61%	-81.36%
HL	70 Outperform	$9.69B	92.46	4.67%	0.20%	36.30%	―
KALU	68 Neutral	$1.29B	20.55	8.89%	3.95%	4.62%	56.04%
CENX	68 Neutral	$2.89B	26.05	17.74%	―	15.39%	-47.91%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CSTM	58 Neutral	$2.23B	82.94	3.02%	―	2.52%	-83.35%

Alcoa Corporate Events

Alcoa Reports Strong Q3 2025 with Strategic Moves

Alcoa Corporation is a leading global producer of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products, known for its commitment to operational excellence and sustainability in the metals industry. In its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, Alcoa Corporation announced increased production in its alumina and aluminum segments, alongside significant one-time financial impacts due to strategic restructuring and asset sales. The company reported a net income of $232 million, driven by a substantial gain from the sale of its interest in a joint venture with the Saudi Arabian Mining Company, offset by restructuring charges from the closure of its Kwinana refinery in Australia. Alcoa also set production records at several smelters and secured a new energy contract for its Massena smelter in New York, reflecting its strategic focus on operational stability and portfolio optimization. Looking ahead, Alcoa’s management remains focused on enhancing profitability through safety and continuous improvement initiatives, while advancing mine approvals in Australia and exploring new opportunities in the gallium market.

Alcoa Announces Permanent Closure of Kwinana Refinery

On September 29, 2025, Alcoa Corporation announced the permanent closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Western Australia, which had been fully curtailed since June 2024. The decision was influenced by factors such as the refinery’s age, operating costs, and market conditions. The closure will result in restructuring charges of approximately $890 million, with cash outlays expected to reach $600 million over six years. The refinery’s closure will impact approximately 220 employees, with severance costs previously recorded in 2024.

The most recent analyst rating on (AA) stock is a Buy with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alcoa stock, see the AA Stock Forecast page.