Want to see AA full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Alcoa
(NYSE:AA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(3.98% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/18/26
AA’s score is primarily supported by improved financial performance (profitability and growth rebound with reasonable leverage) and a generally constructive earnings-call backdrop (record aluminum results and sizable projected acquisition synergies). These positives are tempered by very weak technicals (strong downtrend and bearish momentum despite oversold readings) and only moderate valuation support (low P/E but modest dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Strong aluminum segment profitability
Sustained high margins and record aluminum segment EBITDA reflect durable operational advantages in primary aluminum production. Higher-margin third-party volumes and improved shipments support long-term cash generation and resilience to commodity swings, strengthening core earnings quality.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow conversion and volatility
Poor cash conversion versus earnings and historical FCF volatility reduce financial flexibility. Limited cash conversion constrains the company's ability to fund capex, integrate acquisitions, pay contingents, or return capital reliably across aluminum cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong aluminum segment profitability
Sustained high margins and record aluminum segment EBITDA reflect durable operational advantages in primary aluminum production. Higher-margin third-party volumes and improved shipments support long-term cash generation and resilience to commodity swings, strengthening core earnings quality.
Read all positive factors
Alcoa Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Sales by Segment
Breaks down revenue from each business unit, offering insights into which segments are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Breaks down revenue from each business unit, offering insights into which segments are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAlcoa (AA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.63B
Dividend Yield0.9%
Average Volume (3M)6.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth7.55%
EPS Growth25.40%
CountryUS
Employees14,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.92
Shares Outstanding263,892,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,700,518
30 Day Avg. Volume6,413,060
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.27
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio24.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.33Price Target Upside40.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)6.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.76B
Alcoa Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA) is an upstream aluminum company focused on producing and selling bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum. It operates across the aluminum value chain from mining bauxite to refining it into alumina and smelting alumina ...
How the Company Makes Money
Alcoa makes money primarily by selling commodity aluminum inputs—bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum—produced from its mining, refining, and smelting operations. Revenue is generated through (1) bauxite sales, where mined bauxite is sold to thi...
Alcoa Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 16, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution and record aluminum financial performance (notably record aluminum segment adjusted EBITDA, high revenue, robust cash generation, strategic investments, and a transformational acquisition with large synergies). Offsetting negatives include alumina segment disruptions (Pinjarra), guidance reductions for alumina volumes, end-of-quarter metal price volatility, elevated input and corporate costs, and some site-level cash consumption. On balance, the positives (record revenue, strong aluminum margins and cash flow, strategic acquisition and investments, labor stability) appear to outweigh the lowlights, though there are clear near-term execution and cost headwinds to monitor.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total revenue increased 24% year-over-year to $4.0 billion, the highest quarterly revenue in Alcoa Corporation's ~10-year history.
Negative Updates
Alumina Segment Weakness and Guidance Reduction
Third-party alumina revenue decreased 3% to $637 million. Management lowered full-year alumina production guidance to 9.5–9.6 million metric tons and shipments to 11.5–11.6 million metric tons primarily due to operational instability at the Pinjarra refinery and natural gas curtailments from Cyclone Narelle.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total revenue increased 24% year-over-year to $4.0 billion, the highest quarterly revenue in Alcoa Corporation's ~10-year history.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alcoa lowered full‑year alumina guidance to 9.5–9.6 million metric tons of production and 11.5–11.6 million metric tons of shipments, raised other corporate expenses to ~ $180 million and full‑year depreciation to ~ $660 million; for Q3 it expects the alumina segment to be ~ $10 million net favorable (Pinjarra recovery and lower energy) while the aluminum segment is expected to be roughly flat as productivity gains offset ~ $15 million of higher carbon costs, with diesel/fuel‑oil about $5 million favorable in Q3 based on a $90/barrel fuel‑oil assumption. Management also guided Q3 operational tax expense of ~$80–90 million, sees Section 232 tariff costs on U.S. imports from Canada decreasing by ~ $10 million, expects alumina costs in the aluminum segment to be ~ $10 million unfavorable, and noted a ~ $5 million unfavorable currency impact in Q2 that may not recur. On the South32 transaction, Alcoa identified ~ $900 million NPV of synergies (including ~ $50 million of run‑rate savings in year one), will pay $3.1 billion cash + $1.0 billion stock with a locked‑box estimated > $200 million (6/30/26), a ~5% ticking fee (implying ~$80–100 million at close), a CVR capped at $750 million over four years, and expects pro‑forma capacity increases of ~5.2 million metric tons of alumina (+53% pro‑forma) and ~900 thousand metric tons of primary aluminum (+37% pro‑forma); the company finished June with ~$1.4 billion cash, ~$1.4 billion adjusted net debt (within the top end of its target range) and expects post‑close leverage to remain at or below ~2.0x.Alcoa Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.60B | 12.83B | 12.18B | 10.71B | 12.76B | 12.44B |
| Gross Profit | 2.56B | 2.17B | 1.50B | 241.00M | 1.93B | 2.62B |
| EBITDA | 1.99B | 1.84B | 1.09B | 155.00M | 1.43B | 2.06B |
| Net Income | 1.28B | 1.16B | 60.00M | -651.00M | -123.00M | 429.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.85B | 16.13B | 14.06B | 14.15B | 14.76B | 15.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.35B | 1.74B | 1.14B | 944.00M | 1.36B | 1.81B |
| Total Debt | 2.23B | 2.75B | 2.82B | 1.97B | 1.87B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.42B | 9.94B | 8.91B | 8.31B | 8.17B | 8.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.37B | 6.12B | 5.16B | 4.25B | 5.08B | 4.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 352.00M | 567.00M | 42.00M | -440.00M | 342.00M | 530.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.05B | 1.19B | 622.00M | 91.00M | 822.00M | 920.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -594.00M | -502.00M | -608.00M | -585.00M | -495.00M | 565.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -564.00M | -261.00M | 201.00M | 57.00M | -768.00M | -1.16B |
Alcoa Risk Analysis
Alcoa disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alcoa reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alcoa Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $10.19B | 35.49 | 11.04% | 0.09% | 56.81% | 525.85% | |
70 Outperform | $2.65B | 11.62 | 26.29% | 1.89% | 32.83% | 251.96% | |
65 Neutral | $4.02B | 9.14 | 46.49% | ― | 20.15% | 583.93% | |
62 Neutral | $7.53B | 13.17 | 13.65% | 1.10% | 15.23% | 1535.96% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $11.63B | 9.02 | 19.16% | 0.90% | 7.55% | 25.40% | |
61 Neutral | $4.44B | 12.46 | 40.62% | ― | 7.54% | 183.70% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AA
Alcoa
44.36
14.16
46.86%
CENX
Century Aluminum
43.96
21.63
96.87%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
70.47
18.69
36.08%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
14.55
8.54
142.02%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
162.16
84.37
108.46%
CSTM
Constellium
29.08
14.40
98.09%
Alcoa Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Alcoa Announces Major Acquisition of South32 Aluminum Assets
Positive
Jul 2, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Alcoa entered into an Umbrella Implementation Deed to acquire South32 Limited’s interests in bauxite mine, alumina refinery and aluminum smelter operations, in a transaction valued at $3.1 billion in cash plus about 17 mill...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Alcoa to Acquire South32 Aluminum Assets Worldwide
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Alcoa announced a definitive agreement to acquire South32’s interests in key bauxite mines, alumina refineries, and aluminum smelters in Australia, Brazil, and South Africa for approximately $4.1 billion in cash and stock, ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Alcoa Shareholders Approve Expanded Incentive Plan, Reelect Board
Positive
May 11, 2026
At its Annual Meeting on May 6, 2026, Alcoa’s stockholders approved an amended and restated Stock and Incentive Compensation Plan that expands the share pool from 30 million to 38 million and extends the plan’s term to May 6, 2036. The...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alcoa Details New Material Agreement and Related Debt Obligations
Neutral
May 4, 2026
Alcoa disclosed that information related to its entry into a material definitive agreement, reported under Item 1.01 of a Current Report on Form 8-K, is being incorporated by reference into Item 2.03 of the same filing. This technical, cross-refer...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.