Alcoa (AA)
NYSE:AA
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Alcoa
(NYSE:AA)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$80.00
▲(11.84% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/24/26
AA scores well primarily on improving financial strength (sharp 2025 earnings recovery and markedly lower leverage) and bullish technicals (price above key moving averages with positive momentum). The score is moderated by cyclicality/FCF variability, a modest dividend yield, and 2026 guidance headwinds (higher spending and restart-related losses) despite strong recent execution.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
A material deleveraging in 2025 meaningfully reduces financial risk and increases strategic optionality. Lower net debt improves resilience through commodity cycles, supports sustained capex and possible shareholder returns, and gives management room to prioritize debt reduction or opportunistic investments.
Negative Factors
Cyclical Earnings and Cash Volatility
Material earnings and cash-flow swings driven by commodity prices and input costs make long-term planning and sustained returns challenging. The firm's profitability depends on market cycles, increasing the risk that weaker commodity environments will erode margins, cash generation and capital allocation consistency.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
A material deleveraging in 2025 meaningfully reduces financial risk and increases strategic optionality. Lower net debt improves resilience through commodity cycles, supports sustained capex and possible shareholder returns, and gives management room to prioritize debt reduction or opportunistic investments.
Read all positive factors
Alcoa (AA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.87B
Dividend Yield0.75%
Average Volume (3M)6.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)1.86
Revenue Growth20.08%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees13,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.26
Shares Outstanding263,839,750
10 Day Avg. Volume6,847,964
30 Day Avg. Volume6,905,716
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.26
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio24.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.92
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$66.38Price Target Upside-7.21% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.31B
Alcoa Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through three segments...
How the Company Makes Money
Alcoa makes money primarily by producing and selling aluminum value-chain commodities—bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum—earning revenue based largely on sales volumes and market-linked pricing.
Key revenue streams:
1) Primary aluminum sales:...
Alcoa Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Sales by Segment
Breaks down revenue from each business unit, offering insights into which segments are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Breaks down revenue from each business unit, offering insights into which segments are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAlcoa Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong fourth-quarter operational execution, sequential revenue growth (+15%), a sizable sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA (+$276M) and robust cash generation (Q4 cash $1.6B, FY free cash flow $594M). Management advanced strategic initiatives (ELYSIS milestone, site monetization negotiations, WA permitting progress) and achieved record production at multiple assets. Offsetting these positives were one-time and near-term headwinds: a $144M goodwill impairment, a $70M mark-to-market loss, pressure in the alumina segment (lower prices and a $36M sequential EBITDA decline), and short-term costs related to the San Ciprian restart and increased environmental and sustaining CapEx. Management expects to remain within a disciplined capital framework, with the balance sheet at target range and continued focus on debt repayment and selective shareholder returns. Overall, operational and financial momentum materially outweighs the notable one-time charges and near-term restart and market pressures.Positive Updates
Sequential Revenue Growth
Revenue increased 15% sequentially to $3.4 billion, driven by a 21% increase in aluminum third-party revenue and a 3% increase in alumina third-party revenue.
Negative Updates
Goodwill Impairment Charge
Recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $144 million in the Alumina segment (annual goodwill assessment) due to current alumina prices; no goodwill remains after the charge.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sequential Revenue Growth
Revenue increased 15% sequentially to $3.4 billion, driven by a 21% increase in aluminum third-party revenue and a 3% increase in alumina third-party revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alcoa's 2026 guidance targets alumina production of 9.7–9.9 million tons and shipments of 11.8–12.0 million tons, aluminum production of 2.4–2.6 million tons and shipments of 2.6–2.8 million tons; it anticipates $100 million of transformation costs and ~ $160 million of other corporate expense, depreciation of ~ $630 million, non‑operating pension & OPEB expense of ~ $35 million (with required cash funding ~ $60 million), interest expense of ~ $140 million, and an operational tax expense of ~$65–75 million; cash and investment plans include $750 million of capex (sustaining $675M, return‑seeking $75M, sustaining up $97M including ~$65M for Australian mine moves), ~ $325 million of environmental/ARO spend, and ~ $230 million of net prior‑year income tax payments (including the Ma’aden tax); at the segment level Alcoa expects alumina performance ~ $30 million unfavorable and aluminum ~ $70 million unfavorable (partially offset by ~ $40 million favorable alumina cost in aluminum), and it will prioritize staying within its $1.0–1.5 billion adjusted net‑debt target (ended 2025 near the $1.5B high end) while balancing additional debt repayment, disciplined capital returns and value‑creating growth.Alcoa Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.74B | 12.18B | 10.71B | 12.76B | 12.44B |
| Gross Profit | 1.73B | 1.50B | 241.00M | 1.93B | 2.62B |
| EBITDA | 1.86B | 1.09B | 155.00M | 1.43B | 2.06B |
| Net Income | 1.15B | 60.00M | -651.00M | -123.00M | 429.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.21B | 14.06B | 14.15B | 14.76B | 15.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.60B | 1.14B | 944.00M | 1.36B | 1.81B |
| Total Debt | 1.00M | 2.82B | 1.97B | 1.87B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.00B | 8.91B | 8.31B | 8.17B | 8.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.13B | 5.16B | 4.25B | 5.08B | 4.67B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 567.00M | 42.00M | -440.00M | 342.00M | 530.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.19B | 622.00M | 91.00M | 822.00M | 920.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -502.00M | -608.00M | -585.00M | -495.00M | 565.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -261.00M | 201.00M | 57.00M | -768.00M | -1.16B |
Alcoa Technical Analysis
Positive
71.53
Price Trends
61.36
Positive
55.06
Positive
43.64
Positive
Market Momentum
1.53
Negative
66.20
Neutral
95.53
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 71.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.49, above the 50-day MA of 61.36, and above the 200-day MA of 43.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AA.
Alcoa Risk Analysis
Alcoa disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alcoa reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alcoa Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $18.87B | 12.08 | 18.80% | 0.75% | 20.08% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $12.86B | 38.89 | 13.65% | 0.07% | 45.61% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $6.19B | 88.30 | 5.54% | ― | 20.15% | -72.89% | |
65 Neutral | $2.13B | 16.51 | 14.22% | 2.64% | 7.69% | 91.86% | |
64 Neutral | $3.73B | 9.65 | 29.48% | ― | 8.48% | 12.10% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $6.85B | 21.86 | 11.88% | 1.02% | -1.61% | -81.36% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AA
Alcoa
71.53
47.21
194.16%
CENX
Century Aluminum
62.57
47.59
317.55%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
61.79
21.49
53.33%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
19.18
14.41
302.01%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
131.62
82.46
167.74%
CSTM
Constellium
27.62
19.63
245.68%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.