Century Aluminum (CENX)
NASDAQ:CENX
Want to see CENX full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Century Aluminum
(NASDAQ:CENX)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$64.00
▲(2.83% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score reflects a strong earnings rebound and improved balance-sheet posture, tempered by weak cash conversion and volatile free cash flow. Valuation is a clear positive due to the very low P/E, while technicals are mixed (near-term softness but longer-term trend support). The latest earnings call adds support via higher Q2 EBITDA guidance and restart/expansion progress, with cost and timing headwinds as the main offsets.
Positive Factors
Profitability rebound
A material sequential EBITDA gain shows the company can capture higher realized LME and regional premiums and improve operating performance. Sustained stronger EBITDA supports deleveraging, funds required capex for ramps, and enhances resilience to industry cycles over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion
Profitability is not fully converting to cash, which constrains the company's ability to sustainably fund capex, accelerate debt reduction, or build reserves. Thin and volatile free cash flow increases dependence on external financing or asset sales during downturns and raises execution risk for multi-quarter projects.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability rebound
A material sequential EBITDA gain shows the company can capture higher realized LME and regional premiums and improve operating performance. Sustained stronger EBITDA supports deleveraging, funds required capex for ramps, and enhances resilience to industry cycles over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Century Aluminum (CENX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.62B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.3
Beta (1Y)2.18
Revenue Growth7.54%
EPS Growth183.70%
CountryUS
Employees2,971
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.53
Shares Outstanding98,974,045
10 Day Avg. Volume1,823,170
30 Day Avg. Volume2,264,022
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.00
Price to Book (P/B)4.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio43.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.33
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda29.47
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$79.33Price Target Upside27.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)10.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.24B
Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The comp...
How the Company Makes Money
Century Aluminum primarily makes money by producing primary aluminum at its smelting facilities and selling that metal to customers, with revenue largely driven by shipment volumes and prevailing market prices for aluminum (often referenced to ben...
Century Aluminum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive outlook: strong Q1 operating and financial performance (notably adjusted EBITDA growth, higher realized prices, improved cash and reduced net debt), successful progress on Mt. Holly expansion and Grundartangi restart, and a supportive market backdrop due to Middle East disruptions that widen the global deficit. Near-term headwinds include higher energy and raw material costs, insurance reimbursement timing, Jamalco bauxite quality issues, and temporary production constraints tied to equipment and contractual lags. Management provided constructive Q2 guidance and highlighted material upside if current spot prices roll through in later quarters.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Strong Q1 Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $231 million in Q1, up $60 million sequentially (approx. +35.1%) driven by higher LME and regional premiums, improved operating expenses and favorable sales mix.
Negative Updates
Sequential Shipment Decline
Q1 shipments totaled ~123,000 tons, down sequentially due to Line 2 in Iceland being offline for the full quarter following its idling in late October 2025; full shipment benefit from restarts not realized until Q3 run rate.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Strong Q1 Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $231 million in Q1, up $60 million sequentially (approx. +35.1%) driven by higher LME and regional premiums, improved operating expenses and favorable sales mix.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 realized LME of $3,175/ton, a lagged U.S. Midwest premium of $2,450/ton and a European duty‑paid premium of $485/ton, and expects Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $315–335 million (up about $85–95M vs. Q1’s $231M), noting incremental Mt. Holly and Grundartangi tons are included in Q2 but full run‑rate won’t be realized until Q3; Mt. Holly will ramp to ~230,000 metric tons (adding >125 full‑time jobs and boosting U.S. primary production nearly 10%) by end‑June, Grundartangi Line 2 pots were restarted April 23 with all pots to be restored by end‑July (transformers in Q4), and management highlighted a 2026 global aluminum deficit of ~1.4 million tons; Q1 metrics: ~123,000 tons shipped, net sales $649M, net income $338M ($3.23/sh), adjusted net income $171M ($1.63/sh), adjusted EBITDA $231M, cash $332M, net debt $220M (<$300M target), Q1 CapEx $76M (≈$71M on Mt. Holly/Grundartangi/TG4) with similar Q2 CapEx expected, $198M of accrued 45X tax credits receivable (with ~$94M expected soon), and $83M of insurance recoveries received to date (Q1 claims trailed recoveries by $38M; $46M advance received in April).Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.54B | 2.53B | 2.22B | 2.19B | 2.78B | 2.21B |
| Gross Profit | 322.30M | 256.40M | 185.00M | 91.90M | 46.70M | 124.20M |
| EBITDA | 201.10M | 142.20M | 448.70M | 43.40M | 136.10M | -84.60M |
| Net Income | 349.60M | 41.80M | 336.80M | -43.10M | -14.10M | -167.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.65B | 2.28B | 1.94B | 1.85B | 1.47B | 1.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 244.10M | 135.60M | 32.90M | 88.80M | 54.30M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 545.90M | 548.30M | 519.20M | 473.70M | 548.60M | 474.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.37B | 1.34B | 1.28B | 1.50B | 1.07B | 1.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.15B | 825.60M | 694.40M | 355.60M | 399.30M | 421.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 27.30M | 84.80M | -106.90M | 10.60M | -60.40M | -147.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 179.70M | 183.60M | -24.60M | 105.60M | 25.90M | -64.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 46.90M | -98.80M | -67.30M | -57.80M | -85.50M | -82.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 59.30M | 15.10M | 37.30M | -13.00M | 74.40M | 103.70M |
Century Aluminum Technical Analysis
Positive
62.24
Price Trends
55.34
Positive
47.26
Positive
36.35
Positive
Market Momentum
3.31
Negative
55.29
Neutral
46.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.25, above the 50-day MA of 55.34, and above the 200-day MA of 36.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CENX.
Century Aluminum Risk Analysis
Century Aluminum disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Century Aluminum reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Century Aluminum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $16.50B | 10.29 | 16.13% | 0.75% | 0.51% | 17.91% | |
68 Neutral | $5.62B | 4.30 | 40.62% | ― | 7.54% | 183.70% | |
68 Neutral | $4.34B | 4.18 | 47.75% | ― | 20.15% | 583.93% | |
64 Neutral | $4.26B | 39.95 | 8.17% | 0.43% | 11.39% | 651.28% | |
64 Neutral | $2.77B | 7.83 | 18.68% | 2.64% | 20.84% | 247.80% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
42 Neutral | $1.67B | -2.65 | -13.62% | ― | -0.94% | 24.97% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CENX
Century Aluminum
56.82
40.54
249.02%
AA
Alcoa
62.53
33.45
115.01%
MTRN
Materion
205.02
124.83
155.68%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
169.29
98.52
139.23%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
1.26
-0.37
-22.70%
CSTM
Constellium
31.91
19.75
162.42%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.