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Century Aluminum (CENX)
NASDAQ:CENX
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Century Aluminum
(NASDAQ:CENX)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$24.00
▼(-7.55% Downside)
Century Aluminum's overall stock score is driven by a positive technical outlook and optimistic earnings call guidance. While financial performance shows moderate health, challenges in cash flow management and a lack of dividend yield slightly weigh on the score. The company's strategic initiatives and favorable market conditions are expected to support future growth.
Positive Factors
Strategic Expansion
The Mt. Holly expansion increases production capacity and adds jobs, enhancing Century's market position and operational scale.
Debt Refinancing
Refinancing reduces interest costs and simplifies the debt structure, improving financial flexibility and long-term cost management.
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth reflects strong demand and effective sales strategies, supporting sustained business expansion.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Challenges
Negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and manage debts.
Net Loss
A net loss impacts profitability and may hinder investment in strategic initiatives, affecting long-term financial health.
Higher Energy Costs
Increased energy costs reduce profit margins, challenging the company's ability to maintain cost efficiency and competitiveness.
Century Aluminum (CENX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.41B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.3
Beta (1Y)2.21
Revenue Growth15.39%
EPS Growth-47.91%
CountryUS
Employees2,971
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.30
Shares Outstanding93,339,120
10 Day Avg. Volume2,081,678
30 Day Avg. Volume1,573,330
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.96
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.00Price Target Upside4.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCentury Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyCentury Aluminum generates revenue primarily through the sale of primary aluminum products. The company sells its aluminum to a diverse customer base, including manufacturers in the aerospace, automotive, and construction industries. Key revenue streams include the production of aluminum ingots, billets, and other value-added products. Additionally, the company benefits from its strategic partnerships with suppliers and customers, which help secure long-term contracts and stabilize pricing. The fluctuations in aluminum prices on the global market also significantly impact the company's earnings, as they directly influence the revenue generated from its product sales. Furthermore, Century Aluminum's focus on operational efficiency and sustainability initiatives contributes to reduced production costs, enhancing profitability.
Century Aluminum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance driven by strategic initiatives and tariff benefits, despite some operational challenges and a net loss. Positive market conditions and strategic expansions like Mt. Holly are expected to drive future growth.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Century generated $74 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, reflecting strong operational performance and strategic initiatives.
Positive Impact of Section 232 Tariffs
The reinstatement and increase of Section 232 tariffs by President Trump have significantly boosted Midwest premiums, contributing to improved financial results.
Mt. Holly Expansion
Century announced the restart of 50,000 metric tonnes of additional production at Mt. Holly, which will increase production to over 220,000 metric tonnes per year and add nearly 100 full-time jobs.
Successful Refinancing
Century completed the refinancing of its 7.5% senior secured notes with new $400 million 6.875% notes, simplifying debt structure and reducing interest costs.
Strong Domestic Demand
There is increased demand for Century's domestically produced billets, with shipments up 8% year-over-year in the first half of 2025.
Negative Updates
Net Loss in Q2
Century reported a net loss of $5 million or $0.05 per share for the quarter.
Production Challenges at Grundartangi
Grundartangi experienced a slight production volume headwind due to a failure in one of its electrical transformers.
Higher Energy Costs
Unusually warm summer temperatures led to higher-than-expected energy costs, slightly impacting anticipated benefits.
Currency Headwinds
Currency headwinds impacted Q2 by $4 million, primarily from wages denominated in local currencies due to a weaker dollar.
Company Guidance
During the Century Aluminum Company's second quarter 2025 earnings call, guidance was provided for an optimistic outlook based on favorable market conditions. The company reported a $74 million adjusted EBITDA for Q2, with expectations for Q3 adjusted EBITDA to be between $115 million and $125 million. Realized LME prices averaged $2,540 per tonne, with U.S. Midwest and European premiums at $850 and $220 per tonne, respectively. The restart of 50,000 metric tonnes at Mt. Holly is expected to add nearly 100 jobs and requires a $50 million investment. Furthermore, Century successfully refinanced $400 million in senior secured notes, reducing interest costs. The company foresees continued earnings growth into Q4, driven by spot LME prices exceeding $2,600 per tonne and Midwest premiums reaching $1,600 per tonne. The call also highlighted strategic initiatives, including the Mt. Holly expansion and progress at Jamalco to enhance production capacity and cost efficiency.Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Century Aluminum demonstrates moderate financial health with stable revenue growth and profitability. However, the company faces challenges in cash flow management, which could impact its ability to invest in growth opportunities. The balance sheet reflects a manageable debt level, but improvements in operational efficiency and cash flow generation are needed to strengthen its financial position.Income Statement
Century Aluminum shows a modest revenue growth rate of 2.85% in the TTM, with a gross profit margin of 10.07% and a net profit margin of 4.84%. While these margins indicate profitability, they are relatively low compared to industry leaders. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also moderate at 6.23% and 9.58%, respectively, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.66, indicating a balanced leverage position. However, the return on equity (ROE) is 16.82%, which is decent but could be improved to enhance shareholder value. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the company's equity position appears stable relative to its assets.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Century Aluminum's cash flow situation is challenging, with a negative free cash flow and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.37. Although there is a significant free cash flow growth rate of 92.92%, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.13, indicating potential liquidity issues.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.43B | 2.22B | 2.19B | 2.78B | 2.21B | 1.61B |
| Gross Profit | 244.90M | 185.00M | 91.90M | 46.70M | 124.20M | -36.50M |
| EBITDA | 232.90M | 448.70M | 43.40M | 136.10M | -84.60M | -11.70M |
| Net Income | 117.60M | 318.90M | -43.10M | -14.10M | -167.00M | -123.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.95B | 1.94B | 1.85B | 1.47B | 1.57B | 1.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 40.70M | 32.90M | 88.80M | 54.30M | 29.00M | 81.60M |
| Total Debt | 479.80M | 519.20M | 473.70M | 548.60M | 474.10M | 340.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.26B | 1.28B | 1.50B | 1.07B | 1.15B | 853.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | 724.40M | 694.40M | 355.60M | 399.30M | 421.00M | 546.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -21.80M | -106.90M | 10.60M | -60.40M | -147.70M | 29.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 58.90M | -24.60M | 105.60M | 25.90M | -64.70M | 42.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -56.60M | -67.30M | -57.80M | -85.50M | -82.60M | -11.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.60M | 37.30M | -13.00M | 74.40M | 103.70M | 13.50M |
Century Aluminum Technical Analysis
Positive
25.96
Price Trends
23.05
Positive
20.43
Positive
19.53
Positive
Market Momentum
1.23
Negative
62.19
Neutral
41.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.40, above the 50-day MA of 23.05, and above the 200-day MA of 19.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CENX.
Century Aluminum Risk Analysis
Century Aluminum disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Century Aluminum reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Century Aluminum Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | 2.46B | 155.07 | 0.94% | 0.47% | 5.55% | -79.38% | |
71 Outperform | 8.09B | 8.01 | 16.37% | 1.27% | 21.32% | ― | |
66 Neutral | 1.20B | 19.05 | 8.23% | 4.16% | 4.62% | 56.04% | |
66 Neutral | $2.41B | 23.25 | 17.74% | ― | 15.39% | -47.91% | |
64 Neutral | 2.08B | 77.80 | 7.93% | ― | 2.52% | -83.35% | |
50 Neutral | 1.98B | -5.07 | -15.90% | 15.19% | -10.77% | -191.87% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CENX
Century Aluminum
25.96
9.81
60.74%
AA
Alcoa
31.45
-7.33
-18.90%
MTRN
Materion
117.99
6.18
5.53%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
74.01
3.93
5.61%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
1.51
-0.83
-35.47%
CSTM
Constellium
14.96
-1.88
-11.16%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.