Century Aluminum (CENX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.61B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.50M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.1
• Beta (1Y): 2.02
• Revenue Growth: 11.42%
• EPS Growth: -49.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,971
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 93,303,060
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,405,704
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,497,426
• PEG Ratio: 0.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.83
• 1Y Price Target: $21.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.00 ▲(9.65%Upside)

Century Aluminum's improved profitability and operational recovery are significant strengths, supported by a positive earnings call outcome. Nevertheless, high leverage and cash flow issues, alongside moderate technical signals, temper the overall score. The valuation is fair, but absent dividend yield is a minor drawback.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet

Free cash flow generation is expected to remain strong and translate to further strengthening of the balance sheet.

Profitability and Tariffs

Century's profitability profile has improved with the acquisition of a majority stake in the Jamalco refinery and benefits from tariffs.

Strategic Asset Management

The strategic review of the idled Hawesville smelter continues, with Century indicating that interest in the asset remains high, offering multiple options for potential value generation.

Negative Factors

Earnings Forecast

The 2Q'25 EBITDA guided range of $80–90mm is disappointing and below prior estimates.

Operational Costs

Higher costs associated with major planned maintenance and seasonal labor costs are considered one-time but impact the current outlook.

Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Century Aluminum makes money primarily through the production and sale of primary aluminum. The company's revenue model is driven by the demand for aluminum in various sectors, including transportation, packaging, and construction. Century Aluminum operates several smelters that convert raw materials into aluminum products, which are then sold to manufacturers and other end-users. Key revenue streams include sales contracts with industrial customers and partnerships with other companies to provide specialized aluminum products. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its production capabilities and market reach.

Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Century Aluminum's financial performance reflects a recovery phase with significant improvements in profitability and revenue growth. However, the company faces high leverage and cash flow challenges, requiring strategic improvements to maintain long-term stability.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a strong recovery in profitability with a significant improvement in net income from a loss of $43.1 million in 2023 to a profit of $119.7 million in TTM 2025. The gross profit margin improved to 9.69% in TTM 2025 from 4.21% in 2022. Revenue growth is steady, with a TTM revenue of $2.36 billion, up from $2.22 billion in 2024. The EBIT margin has also improved to 7.00% in TTM 2025. However, the EBITDA margin decreased due to reduced EBITDA compared to 2024.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a moderate level of financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 0.65 in TTM 2025, suggesting potential leverage risk. The equity ratio is stable at 37.2%, showing a balanced asset funding by equity. Return on equity has improved significantly, reflecting better utilization of equity for generating net income. However, the high total liabilities relative to equity might pose financial risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with negative free cash flow of $11.3 million in TTM 2025, though an improvement from the previous year. Operating cash flow has improved to $62.5 million but remains relatively low compared to net income, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.52. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating inefficiencies in converting income into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.36B	2.22B	2.19B	2.78B	2.21B	1.61B
Gross Profit	229.10M	185.00M	91.90M	46.70M	124.20M	-36.50M
EBITDA	225.40M	448.70M	43.40M	82.60M	-84.60M	-11.70M
Net Income	119.70M	336.80M	-43.10M	-14.00M	-167.00M	-123.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.95B	1.94B	1.85B	1.47B	1.57B	1.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	44.90M	32.90M	88.80M	54.30M	29.00M	81.60M
Total Debt	472.60M	519.20M	473.70M	548.60M	474.10M	340.20M
Total Liabilities	1.26B	1.28B	1.50B	1.07B	1.15B	853.50M
Stockholders Equity	726.30M	694.40M	355.60M	399.30M	421.00M	546.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-11.30M	-106.90M	10.60M	-60.40M	-147.70M	29.50M
Operating Cash Flow	62.50M	-24.60M	105.60M	25.90M	-64.70M	42.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-53.10M	-67.30M	-57.80M	-85.50M	-82.60M	-11.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-56.70M	37.30M	-13.00M	74.40M	103.70M	13.50M

Century Aluminum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.24
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.32, above the 50-day MA of 17.13, and below the 200-day MA of 18.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CENX.

Century Aluminum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CSTM	69 Neutral	$1.86B	29.89	7.93%	―	-2.29%	-48.13%
CENX	67 Neutral	$1.61B	16.08	18.03%	―	11.42%	-49.21%
KALU	67 Neutral	$1.24B	28.67	6.16%	4.02%	1.56%	-22.11%
MTRN	67 Neutral	$1.65B	169.07	1.14%	0.71%	6.97%	-87.87%
AMR	61 Neutral	$1.30B	49.43	1.66%	0.36%	-23.34%	-95.18%
Sector *	44 Neutral	C$958.76M	-6.68	-13.31%	2.79%	17.55%	-32.28%
BAK	41 Neutral	$1.37B	―	-8638.28%	―	0.81%	-34.74%

Century Aluminum Corporate Events

Century Aluminum Appoints New CFO Peter Trpkovski

On March 21, 2025, Century Aluminum Company announced the appointment of Peter Trpkovski as the new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Gerald Bialek. Trpkovski, who has been with the company since 2013, will focus on advancing Century’s strategic initiatives and strengthening financial operations, ensuring continuity and leadership for the company’s future performance.