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Century Aluminum
(NASDAQ:CENX)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$49.00
▼(-21.27% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/18/26
The score is supported by a strong profitability rebound and improved leverage, reinforced by constructive Q2 guidance and ramp/restart progress. These positives are tempered by weak cash-flow conversion/thin free cash flow and bearish technical momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Profitability rebound
Century Aluminum’s sharp return to profitability and a ~13.7% net margin signal durable operational recovery versus prior loss years. Sustained earnings strengthen internal funding capacity, improve returns on equity, and provide a foundation to absorb cyclical downturns if pricing and volumes remain supportive.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion
Earnings are not fully translating into cash, leaving free cash flow thin and volatile. Limited cash conversion constrains reinvestment, increases reliance on external funding for growth or smoothing cycles, and raises vulnerability to working-capital swings or delayed insurance/tax receipts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability rebound
Century Aluminum’s sharp return to profitability and a ~13.7% net margin signal durable operational recovery versus prior loss years. Sustained earnings strengthen internal funding capacity, improve returns on equity, and provide a foundation to absorb cyclical downturns if pricing and volumes remain supportive.
Read all positive factors
Century Aluminum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Century Aluminum (CENX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.59B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1
Beta (1Y)2.28
Revenue Growth7.54%
EPS Growth183.70%
CountryUS
Employees2,971
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.53
Shares Outstanding98,974,045
10 Day Avg. Volume2,375,833
30 Day Avg. Volume2,047,971
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.06
Price to Book (P/B)4.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio43.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$79.33Price Target Upside27.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)11.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.39B
Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Century Aluminum Company, along with its associated entities, manufactures both standard and specialized primary aluminum products across the United States and Iceland. The firm also possesses and manages a facility dedicated to carbon anode produ...
How the Company Makes Money
Century Aluminum primarily makes money by producing and selling primary aluminum (and certain value-added aluminum products) from its smelters. Revenue is generated through customer sales contracts and spot/market-based sales, where realized prici...
Century Aluminum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive outlook: strong Q1 operating and financial performance (notably adjusted EBITDA growth, higher realized prices, improved cash and reduced net debt), successful progress on Mt. Holly expansion and Grundartangi restart, and a supportive market backdrop due to Middle East disruptions that widen the global deficit. Near-term headwinds include higher energy and raw material costs, insurance reimbursement timing, Jamalco bauxite quality issues, and temporary production constraints tied to equipment and contractual lags. Management provided constructive Q2 guidance and highlighted material upside if current spot prices roll through in later quarters.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Strong Q1 Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $231 million in Q1, up $60 million sequentially (approx. +35.1%) driven by higher LME and regional premiums, improved operating expenses and favorable sales mix.
Negative Updates
Sequential Shipment Decline
Q1 shipments totaled ~123,000 tons, down sequentially due to Line 2 in Iceland being offline for the full quarter following its idling in late October 2025; full shipment benefit from restarts not realized until Q3 run rate.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Strong Q1 Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $231 million in Q1, up $60 million sequentially (approx. +35.1%) driven by higher LME and regional premiums, improved operating expenses and favorable sales mix.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 realized LME of $3,175/ton, a lagged U.S. Midwest premium of $2,450/ton and a European duty‑paid premium of $485/ton, and expects Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $315–335 million (up about $85–95M vs. Q1’s $231M), noting incremental Mt. Holly and Grundartangi tons are included in Q2 but full run‑rate won’t be realized until Q3; Mt. Holly will ramp to ~230,000 metric tons (adding >125 full‑time jobs and boosting U.S. primary production nearly 10%) by end‑June, Grundartangi Line 2 pots were restarted April 23 with all pots to be restored by end‑July (transformers in Q4), and management highlighted a 2026 global aluminum deficit of ~1.4 million tons; Q1 metrics: ~123,000 tons shipped, net sales $649M, net income $338M ($3.23/sh), adjusted net income $171M ($1.63/sh), adjusted EBITDA $231M, cash $332M, net debt $220M (<$300M target), Q1 CapEx $76M (≈$71M on Mt. Holly/Grundartangi/TG4) with similar Q2 CapEx expected, $198M of accrued 45X tax credits receivable (with ~$94M expected soon), and $83M of insurance recoveries received to date (Q1 claims trailed recoveries by $38M; $46M advance received in April).Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.54B | 2.53B | 2.22B | 2.19B | 2.78B | 2.21B |
| Gross Profit | 322.30M | 256.40M | 185.00M | 91.90M | 46.70M | 124.20M |
| EBITDA | 454.30M | 142.20M | 448.70M | 43.40M | 136.10M | -84.60M |
| Net Income | 349.60M | 41.80M | 336.80M | -43.10M | -14.10M | -167.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.65B | 2.28B | 1.94B | 1.85B | 1.47B | 1.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 244.10M | 135.60M | 32.90M | 88.80M | 54.30M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 545.90M | 548.30M | 519.20M | 473.70M | 548.60M | 474.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.37B | 1.34B | 1.28B | 1.50B | 1.07B | 1.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.15B | 825.60M | 694.40M | 355.60M | 399.30M | 421.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 27.30M | 84.80M | -106.90M | 10.60M | -60.40M | -147.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 179.70M | 183.60M | -24.60M | 105.60M | 25.90M | -64.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 46.90M | -98.80M | -67.30M | -57.80M | -85.50M | -82.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 59.30M | 15.10M | 37.30M | -13.00M | 74.40M | 103.70M |
Century Aluminum Technical Analysis
Negative
62.24
Price Trends
59.72
Negative
57.23
Negative
45.47
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.23
Positive
32.64
Neutral
12.61
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 62.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.27, above the 50-day MA of 59.72, and above the 200-day MA of 45.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.61 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CENX.
Century Aluminum Risk Analysis
Century Aluminum disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Century Aluminum reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Century Aluminum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $14.28B | 13.47 | 16.27% | 0.75% | 0.51% | 17.91% | |
68 Neutral | $3.06B | 19.82 | 18.68% | 2.64% | 20.84% | 247.80% | |
68 Neutral | $4.33B | 9.99 | 46.49% | ― | 20.15% | 583.93% | |
63 Neutral | $5.97B | 77.78 | 8.17% | 0.43% | 11.39% | 651.28% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $4.59B | 13.13 | 40.62% | ― | 7.54% | 183.70% | |
41 Neutral | $1.21B | -3.52 | -12.83% | ― | 2.16% | 20.46% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CENX
Century Aluminum
46.33
28.31
157.10%
AA
Alcoa
54.10
24.82
84.76%
MTRN
Materion
287.02
207.97
263.08%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
187.17
109.45
140.82%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
0.94
-0.46
-33.00%
CSTM
Constellium
31.78
18.48
138.95%
Century Aluminum Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Century Aluminum Shareholders Approve Directors and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
Century Aluminum Company reported the results of its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 15, 2026, where 85,513,459 shares, or about 86.39% of eligible shares, were represented, establishing a quorum for formal business. Shareholders ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.