Century Aluminum (CENX)
NASDAQ:CENX
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Century Aluminum
(NASDAQ:CENX)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
▲(0.70% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/23/26
The score is driven primarily by strong technical momentum and a bullish, catalyst-rich earnings update with improving guidance and recovery timelines. Offsetting these positives are only moderate underlying financial quality (thin TTM margins and uneven cash-flow history) and a stretched valuation (high P/E with no dividend support).
Positive Factors
Large U.S. smelter JV with DOE grant
The EGA 60/40 JV backed by a $500M DOE grant and Bechtel engagement is a structural growth catalyst: it adds large-scale U.S. capacity, leverages EX technology for >20% production efficiency, and embeds government support, strengthening long-term scale, competitiveness and capital access.
Negative Factors
Thin, volatile profitability
Margins are currently razor-thin and historically volatile, leaving little earnings cushion against price or cost shocks. Prior multi-year swings (losses in 2020–2023, strong 2024) indicate profit durability is uncertain, making free cash flow and returns sensitive to cyclical moves.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large U.S. smelter JV with DOE grant
The EGA 60/40 JV backed by a $500M DOE grant and Bechtel engagement is a structural growth catalyst: it adds large-scale U.S. capacity, leverages EX technology for >20% production efficiency, and embeds government support, strengthening long-term scale, competitiveness and capital access.
Read all positive factors
Century Aluminum (CENX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.91B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)527.3
Beta (1Y)2.10
Revenue Growth20.15%
EPS Growth-72.89%
CountryUS
Employees2,971
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.25
Shares Outstanding98,974,045
10 Day Avg. Volume2,405,462
30 Day Avg. Volume2,571,588
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.00
Price to Book (P/B)4.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio43.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda35.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$59.67Price Target Upside20.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)8.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.00B
Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The comp...
How the Company Makes Money
Century Aluminum primarily makes money by producing primary aluminum at its smelting facilities and selling that metal to customers, with revenue largely driven by shipment volumes and prevailing market prices for aluminum (often referenced to ben...
Century Aluminum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly constructive strategic and operational picture: management announced a transformational Oklahoma smelter JV (backed by DOE funding and Bechtel engagement), completed a lucrative Hawesville sale while retaining upside, and provided tangible operational recovery timelines that support a material production increase in 2026. Financially, adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow improved meaningfully and leverage declined. Near-term challenges remain — notably the Grundartangi outage-driven margin loss, Hurricane Melissa disruptions at Jamalco, a short-lived Midwest energy spike and some input-cost pressure — but insurance coverage, imminent turbine completion at Jamalco, earlier-than-expected repairs at Grundartangi, a supportive pricing backdrop, and the $200 million Hawesville proceeds all materially mitigate those issues. On balance, the positives and upside catalysts outweigh the transitory headwinds.Positive Updates
Oklahoma Smelter Partnership with EGA
Century announced a 60% EGA / 40% Century partnership to build the first new U.S. smelter in nearly 50 years, supported by a $500 million DOE grant. Bechtel was retained for next-stage engineering with a target final investment decision and groundbreaking by year-end. The project will use EGA's EX technology (expected >20% production improvement versus prior tech) and an expanded planned capacity of 750,000 metric tons, which management said would more than double total U.S. aluminum production.
Negative Updates
Grundartangi Potline 2 Outage and Lost Margin
A failure of three electrical transformers forced a temporary stop of potline 2 at Grundartangi, producing a significant margin loss (management cited ~$40–$50 million of lost margin in Q4). Replacement transformers have been ordered and insurers have confirmed coverage, but insurance reimbursements are expected on a 1–2 quarter lag, creating cash timing pressure. Full replacement transformers may not be installed until later in the year, though repaired units are expected to permit an earlier restart.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Oklahoma Smelter Partnership with EGA
Century announced a 60% EGA / 40% Century partnership to build the first new U.S. smelter in nearly 50 years, supported by a $500 million DOE grant. Bechtel was retained for next-stage engineering with a target final investment decision and groundbreaking by year-end. The project will use EGA's EX technology (expected >20% production improvement versus prior tech) and an expanded planned capacity of 750,000 metric tons, which management said would more than double total U.S. aluminum production.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $215–$235 million (midpoint $225M), built on a lagged LME of $2,850/ton, a lagged U.S. Midwest premium of $2,140/ton ($0.97/lb) and a European duty‑paid premium of about $315/ton, while flagging a $10–$15M headwind from realized hedge settlements and $0–$5M of tax expense; they also noted a $20M EBITDA hit at Sebree from a two‑week Indiana power spike (net cash impact ≈ $15M after $5M of positive hedges), modest raw‑materials and OpEx headwinds of $0–$5M each, and a $5M benefit from improved volume/mix. For fiscal 2026 the company expects ~630,000 tons of primary aluminum shipments (rising toward ~750,000 tpa once restarts are annualized), total CapEx of $115–$125M including ~$45M to restart the last 90 pots at Mt. Holly, lower cash interest, and insurance recoveries for the Iceland outage (≈$40M received in Q1 with further payments on a 1–2 quarter lag). Recent quarter metrics: Q4 shipments ~140,000 tons, net sales $634M, adjusted EBITDA $171M, adjusted net income $128M ($1.25/sh), ending cash $134M, net debt $421M, plus $200M cash from the Hawesville sale (closed Feb) and a retained 6.8% equity stake in the data center.Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.53B | 2.22B | 2.19B | 2.78B | 2.21B |
| Gross Profit | 256.40M | 185.00M | 91.90M | 46.70M | 124.20M |
| EBITDA | 142.20M | 448.70M | 43.40M | 136.10M | -84.60M |
| Net Income | 41.80M | 336.80M | -43.10M | -14.10M | -167.10M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.28B | 1.94B | 1.85B | 1.47B | 1.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 135.60M | 32.90M | 88.80M | 54.30M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 548.30M | 519.20M | 473.70M | 548.60M | 474.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.34B | 1.28B | 1.50B | 1.07B | 1.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 825.60M | 694.40M | 355.60M | 399.30M | 421.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 84.80M | -106.90M | 10.60M | -60.40M | -147.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 183.60M | -24.60M | 105.60M | 25.90M | -64.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -98.80M | -67.30M | -57.80M | -85.50M | -82.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 15.10M | 37.30M | -13.00M | 74.40M | 103.70M |
Century Aluminum Technical Analysis
Positive
49.65
Price Trends
50.93
Negative
42.42
Positive
33.15
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.48
Positive
46.02
Neutral
24.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.74, below the 50-day MA of 50.93, and above the 200-day MA of 33.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CENX.
Century Aluminum Risk Analysis
Century Aluminum disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Century Aluminum reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Century Aluminum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $15.41B | 12.08 | 18.80% | 0.75% | 20.08% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $2.93B | 34.48 | 8.14% | 0.43% | 3.93% | -73.94% | |
65 Neutral | $4.91B | 527.30 | 5.54% | ― | 20.15% | -72.89% | |
65 Neutral | $1.86B | 16.50 | 14.22% | 2.64% | 7.69% | 91.86% | |
64 Neutral | $3.16B | 9.64 | 29.22% | ― | 8.48% | 12.10% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
45 Neutral | $1.55B | -5.92 | -13.62% | ― | -5.79% | -5.30% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CENX
Century Aluminum
49.65
31.09
167.51%
AA
Alcoa
58.41
28.25
93.66%
MTRN
Materion
141.39
60.14
74.01%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
114.56
56.05
95.79%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
1.21
-0.46
-27.54%
CSTM
Constellium
23.37
13.28
131.62%
Century Aluminum Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Century Aluminum Completes Hawesville Site Sale and Partnership
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Century Aluminum’s subsidiary Century Aluminum of Kentucky completed the sale of its approximately 750-acre Hawesville, Kentucky site, including related property, to Justified DataPower LLC for $200 million in cash and a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.