Century Aluminum (CENX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.08B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.55M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.1
• Beta (1Y): 2.19
• Revenue Growth: 15.39%
• EPS Growth: -47.91%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,971
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 0.30
• Shares Outstanding: 93,339,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,208,316
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,549,435
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.96
• 1Y Price Target: $25.50
• Price Target Upside: 14.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.00 ▲(7.48% Upside)

Century Aluminum's overall stock score is driven by a positive technical outlook and optimistic earnings call guidance. While financial performance shows moderate health, challenges in cash flow management and a lack of dividend yield slightly weigh on the score. The company's strategic initiatives and favorable market conditions are expected to support future growth.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

Net debt declined to $442mm from $497mm last quarter, while available liquidity increased significantly.

Financial Performance

Free cash flow generation is expected to remain strong and translate to further strengthening of the balance sheet.

Market Position

Century is the largest producer of primary aluminum in the U.S., producing ~378kt, which positions it well to benefit from the 25% Section 232 aluminum tariffs.

Profitability

Century's profitability profile has improved with the acquisition of a majority stake in the Jamalco refinery and benefits from tariffs.

Negative Factors

Cost Management

Higher costs associated with major planned maintenance and seasonal labor costs are considered one-time but impact the current outlook.

Earnings Outlook

The 2Q'25 EBITDA guided range of $80–90mm is disappointing and below prior estimates.

Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Century Aluminum Company (CENX) is a leading producer of primary aluminum, primarily operating in the United States. The company focuses on the production of high-quality aluminum products for various industries, including aerospace, automotive, and construction. With facilities located in strategic locations, Century Aluminum is committed to sustainable practices and optimizing the efficiency of its operations while meeting the growing demand for aluminum across multiple sectors.

How the Company Makes Money

Century Aluminum generates revenue primarily through the sale of primary aluminum products. The company sells its aluminum to a diverse customer base, including manufacturers in the aerospace, automotive, and construction industries. Key revenue streams include the production of aluminum ingots, billets, and other value-added products. Additionally, the company benefits from its strategic partnerships with suppliers and customers, which help secure long-term contracts and stabilize pricing. The fluctuations in aluminum prices on the global market also significantly impact the company's earnings, as they directly influence the revenue generated from its product sales. Furthermore, Century Aluminum's focus on operational efficiency and sustainability initiatives contributes to reduced production costs, enhancing profitability.

Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Century Aluminum demonstrates moderate financial health with stable revenue growth and profitability. However, the company faces challenges in cash flow management, which could impact its ability to invest in growth opportunities. The balance sheet reflects a manageable debt level, but improvements in operational efficiency and cash flow generation are needed to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

Century Aluminum shows a modest revenue growth rate of 2.85% in the TTM, with a gross profit margin of 10.07% and a net profit margin of 4.84%. While these margins indicate profitability, they are relatively low compared to industry leaders. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also moderate at 6.23% and 9.58%, respectively, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.66, indicating a balanced leverage position. However, the return on equity (ROE) is 16.82%, which is decent but could be improved to enhance shareholder value. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the company's equity position appears stable relative to its assets.

Cash Flow

Century Aluminum's cash flow situation is challenging, with a negative free cash flow and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.37. Although there is a significant free cash flow growth rate of 92.92%, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.13, indicating potential liquidity issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.43B	2.22B	2.19B	2.78B	2.21B	1.61B
Gross Profit	244.90M	185.00M	91.90M	46.70M	124.20M	-36.50M
EBITDA	232.90M	448.70M	43.40M	136.10M	-84.60M	-11.70M
Net Income	117.60M	318.90M	-43.10M	-14.10M	-167.00M	-123.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.95B	1.94B	1.85B	1.47B	1.57B	1.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	40.70M	32.90M	88.80M	54.30M	29.00M	81.60M
Total Debt	479.80M	519.20M	473.70M	548.60M	474.10M	340.20M
Total Liabilities	1.26B	1.28B	1.50B	1.07B	1.15B	853.50M
Stockholders Equity	724.40M	694.40M	355.60M	399.30M	421.00M	546.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-21.80M	-106.90M	10.60M	-60.40M	-147.70M	29.50M
Operating Cash Flow	58.90M	-24.60M	105.60M	25.90M	-64.70M	42.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-56.60M	-67.30M	-57.80M	-85.50M	-82.60M	-11.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.60M	37.30M	-13.00M	74.40M	103.70M	13.50M

Century Aluminum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 22.33
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.45, above the 50-day MA of 20.97, and above the 200-day MA of 19.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CENX.

Century Aluminum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTRN	78 Outperform	$2.30B	144.76	1.79%	0.50%	5.55%	-79.38%
AA	72 Outperform	$8.33B	8.26	20.01%	1.29%	21.32%	―
KALU	69 Neutral	$1.26B	20.00	8.89%	3.96%	4.62%	56.04%
CSTM	67 Neutral	$2.02B	75.35	3.02%	―	2.52%	-83.35%
CENX	66 Neutral	$2.08B	20.09	17.74%	―	15.39%	-47.91%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.24B	6.18	0.71%	2.90%	3.45%	-36.02%
SID	50 Neutral	$1.84B	―	-15.57%	16.39%	-10.77%	-191.87%

Century Aluminum Corporate Events

Century Aluminum Completes $400 Million Notes Offering

On July 22, 2025, Century Aluminum Company completed its offering of $400 million in 6.875% Senior Secured Notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used to refinance existing debt, repay borrowings, and cover related expenses, impacting the company’s financial structure and market positioning.

Century Aluminum Announces $400M Senior Notes Offering

On July 16, 2025, Century Aluminum Company announced a proposed private offering of $400 million in senior secured notes due in 2032. The proceeds from this offering are intended to refinance the company’s 7.50% senior secured notes due in 2028, repay borrowings under its credit facilities, and cover related fees and expenses. This strategic financial move is aimed at optimizing Century’s debt structure and enhancing its financial flexibility.