Century Aluminum (CENX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.84B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.68M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.2
• Beta (1Y): 2.08
• Revenue Growth: 11.42%
• EPS Growth: -49.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,971
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 93,303,060
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,925,421
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,681,803
• PEG Ratio: 0.60
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -13.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.82
• 1Y Price Target: $21.00
• Price Target Upside: 7.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $20.50 ▲(4.97%Upside)

Century Aluminum exhibits a strong recovery in profitability and technical strength, but faces ongoing challenges with leverage and cash flow. The positive outlook from the earnings call adds to its potential, yet the valuation suggests it is fairly valued in the current market.

Positive Factors

Financial performance

Free cash flow generation is expected to remain strong and translate to further strengthening of the balance sheet.

Profitability

Century's profitability profile has improved with the acquisition of a majority stake in the Jamalco refinery and benefits from tariffs.

Strategic options

Century has multiple options including selling the Hawesville asset or potentially restarting it, which is not fully reflected in the current share price.

Negative Factors

Cost pressures

Higher costs associated with major planned maintenance and seasonal labor costs are considered one-time but impact the current outlook.

Earnings guidance

The 2Q'25 EBITDA guided range of $80–90mm is disappointing and below prior estimates.

Operational challenges

Latency/fiber and relatively high power costs could be challenges for converting the Hawesville smelter to alternative use.

Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Century Aluminum generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of primary aluminum. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of aluminum to various industries such as automotive, aerospace, packaging, and construction. Century Aluminum's facilities in the United States and Iceland allow it to produce a significant volume of aluminum products, which are then distributed to a global customer base. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with key customers to secure stable revenue streams. Additionally, Century Aluminum's financial performance is influenced by factors such as global aluminum prices, energy costs, and trade policies.

Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Century Aluminum demonstrates financial recovery with improved profitability metrics, such as increased revenue and net profit margin. However, the company faces challenges in cash flow management, with negative free cash flow and a negative operating cash flow to net income ratio. Additionally, despite reduced leverage, the continued reliance on debt for asset financing poses a potential risk.

Income Statement

Century Aluminum's revenue grew at a modest rate of 1.6% from 2023 to 2024, showing slight growth stability. The Gross Profit Margin improved significantly from 4.2% in 2023 to 8.4% in 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. The Net Profit Margin turned positive to 15.3% in 2024 from a negative in 2023, a notable improvement in profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins, both at 5.5% in 2024, suggest moderate profitability performance that could be further optimized.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 0.75 in 2024 from 1.33 in 2023, showing improved financial leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) significantly increased to 48.9% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability relative to equity. Nevertheless, the equity ratio remains low at 39%, indicating a higher reliance on liabilities for asset financing, which could be a potential risk.

Cash Flow

The company experienced a significant decline in free cash flow, turning negative in 2024, indicating cash management challenges. Operating cash flow to net income ratio was negative, suggesting operational cash flow issues despite reported net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio was also negative, signaling inefficiencies in converting net income into cash.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.22B	2.19B	2.78B	2.21B	1.61B
	Gross Profit
185.00M	91.90M	46.70M	124.20M	-36.50M
	EBIT
121.40M	31.80M	25.00M	66.00M	-76.20M
	EBITDA
448.70M	43.40M	82.60M	-84.60M	-11.70M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
336.80M	-43.10M	-14.00M	-167.00M	-123.20M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
32.90M	88.80M	54.30M	29.00M	81.60M
	Total Assets
1.94B	1.85B	1.47B	1.57B	1.40B
	Total Debt
519.20M	473.70M	548.60M	474.10M	340.20M
	Net Debt
486.30M	384.90M	494.30M	445.10M	258.60M
	Total Liabilities
1.28B	1.50B	1.07B	1.15B	853.50M
	Stockholders Equity
694.40M	355.60M	399.30M	421.00M	546.10M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-106.90M	10.60M	-60.40M	-147.70M	29.50M
	Operating Cash Flow
-24.60M	105.60M	25.90M	-64.70M	42.90M
	Investing Cash Flow
-67.30M	-57.80M	-85.50M	-82.60M	-11.80M
	Financing Cash Flow
37.30M	-13.00M	74.40M	103.70M	13.50M

Century Aluminum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.53
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.04, above the 50-day MA of 16.70, and above the 200-day MA of 18.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CENX.

Century Aluminum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CENX	70 Outperform	$1.84B	17.22	18.03%	―	11.42%	-49.21%
CSTM	69 Neutral	$1.83B	28.63	7.93%	―	-2.29%	-48.13%
KALU	67 Neutral	$1.25B	29.01	6.16%	3.94%	1.56%	-22.11%
MTRN	66 Neutral	$1.66B	169.90	1.14%	0.68%	6.97%	-87.87%
AMR	53 Neutral	$1.40B	54.79	1.66%	0.36%	-23.34%	-95.18%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.02B	-1.14	-21.36%	3.64%	2.88%	-30.57%
BAK	48 Neutral	$1.54B	―	-8638.28%	―	0.81%	-34.74%

Century Aluminum Corporate Events

Century Aluminum Appoints New CFO Peter Trpkovski

On March 21, 2025, Century Aluminum Company announced the appointment of Peter Trpkovski as the new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Gerald Bialek. Trpkovski, who has been with the company since 2013, will focus on advancing Century’s strategic initiatives and strengthening financial operations, ensuring continuity and leadership for the company’s future performance.