Century Aluminum (CENX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.89B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.1
• Beta (1Y): 2.18
• Revenue Growth: 15.39%
• EPS Growth: -47.91%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,971
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 0.30
• Shares Outstanding: 93,339,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,213,304
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,135,748
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.96
• 1Y Price Target: $30.33
• Price Target Upside: -2.13% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $34.00 ▲(9.71% Upside)

Century Aluminum's overall score is driven by strong technical momentum and positive earnings call guidance, despite moderate financial performance and valuation concerns. The company's strategic initiatives and market conditions support a favorable outlook.

Positive Factors

Strategic Expansion

The Mt. Holly expansion will boost production capacity and create jobs, enhancing Century's market position and operational scale.

Power Agreement Extension

Securing a stable power supply ensures operational continuity and supports the planned capacity increase at Mt. Holly, strengthening long-term production capabilities.

Successful Refinancing

Refinancing reduces interest costs and simplifies the debt structure, improving financial flexibility and supporting future growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Production Disruption

The temporary production halt at Grundartangi could impact supply commitments and revenue, highlighting operational vulnerabilities.

Cash Flow Challenges

Ongoing cash flow issues may constrain Century's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage financial obligations effectively.

Moderate Profit Margins

Relatively low profit margins suggest limited pricing power and operational efficiency, potentially impacting long-term profitability.

Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Century Aluminum Company (CENX) is a leading producer of primary aluminum, primarily operating in the United States. The company focuses on the production of high-quality aluminum products for various industries, including aerospace, automotive, and construction. With facilities located in strategic locations, Century Aluminum is committed to sustainable practices and optimizing the efficiency of its operations while meeting the growing demand for aluminum across multiple sectors.

How the Company Makes Money

Century Aluminum generates revenue primarily through the sale of primary aluminum products. The company sells its aluminum to a diverse customer base, including manufacturers in the aerospace, automotive, and construction industries. Key revenue streams include the production of aluminum ingots, billets, and other value-added products. Additionally, the company benefits from its strategic partnerships with suppliers and customers, which help secure long-term contracts and stabilize pricing. The fluctuations in aluminum prices on the global market also significantly impact the company's earnings, as they directly influence the revenue generated from its product sales. Furthermore, Century Aluminum's focus on operational efficiency and sustainability initiatives contributes to reduced production costs, enhancing profitability.

Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Century Aluminum demonstrates moderate financial health with stable revenue growth and profitability. However, the company faces challenges in cash flow management, which could impact its ability to invest in growth opportunities. The balance sheet reflects a manageable debt level, but improvements in operational efficiency and cash flow generation are needed to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

Century Aluminum shows a modest revenue growth rate of 2.85% in the TTM, with a gross profit margin of 10.07% and a net profit margin of 4.84%. While these margins indicate profitability, they are relatively low compared to industry leaders. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also moderate at 6.23% and 9.58%, respectively, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.66, indicating a balanced leverage position. However, the return on equity (ROE) is 16.82%, which is decent but could be improved to enhance shareholder value. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the company's equity position appears stable relative to its assets.

Cash Flow

Century Aluminum's cash flow situation is challenging, with a negative free cash flow and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.37. Although there is a significant free cash flow growth rate of 92.92%, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.13, indicating potential liquidity issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.43B	2.22B	2.19B	2.78B	2.21B	1.61B
Gross Profit	244.90M	185.00M	91.90M	46.70M	124.20M	-36.50M
EBITDA	232.90M	448.70M	43.40M	136.10M	-84.60M	-11.70M
Net Income	117.60M	318.90M	-43.10M	-14.10M	-167.00M	-123.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.95B	1.94B	1.85B	1.47B	1.57B	1.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	40.70M	32.90M	88.80M	54.30M	29.00M	81.60M
Total Debt	479.80M	519.20M	473.70M	548.60M	474.10M	340.20M
Total Liabilities	1.26B	1.28B	1.50B	1.07B	1.15B	853.50M
Stockholders Equity	724.40M	694.40M	355.60M	399.30M	421.00M	546.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-21.80M	-106.90M	10.60M	-60.40M	-147.70M	29.50M
Operating Cash Flow	58.90M	-24.60M	105.60M	25.90M	-64.70M	42.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-56.60M	-67.30M	-57.80M	-85.50M	-82.60M	-11.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.60M	37.30M	-13.00M	74.40M	103.70M	13.50M

Century Aluminum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 30.99
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 30.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.41, above the 50-day MA of 26.37, and above the 200-day MA of 20.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CENX.

Century Aluminum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTRN	76 Outperform	$2.71B	170.51	1.79%	0.43%	5.55%	-79.38%
AA	75 Outperform	$9.64B	9.55	20.01%	1.07%	21.32%	―
KALU	68 Neutral	$1.29B	20.55	8.89%	3.95%	4.62%	56.04%
CENX	68 Neutral	$2.89B	26.05	17.74%	―	15.39%	-47.91%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CSTM	58 Neutral	$2.23B	82.94	3.02%	―	2.52%	-83.35%
SID	53 Neutral	$2.14B	―	-15.57%	14.08%	-10.77%	-192.16%

Century Aluminum Corporate Events

Century Aluminum Halts Production Due to Equipment Failure

On October 21, 2025, Century Aluminum announced an electrical equipment failure at its Grundartangi, Iceland smelter, leading to a temporary halt in production on one of its two potlines. This incident has reduced the smelter’s production by approximately two-thirds, although the other potline remains operational. The company is conducting an impact assessment and working on a timeline for equipment replacement and full production restoration. Century Aluminum expects insurance to cover the losses and is coordinating with customers and suppliers to minimize business disruptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (CENX) stock is a Buy with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Century Aluminum stock, see the CENX Stock Forecast page.

Century Aluminum’s Optimistic Earnings Call Highlights

Century Aluminum’s recent earnings call conveyed a largely positive sentiment, highlighting significant achievements such as increased adjusted EBITDA, a production restart at Mt. Holly, and successful debt refinancing. Despite facing challenges like a net loss in Q2 and higher energy costs, the overall outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of improved financial performance in the upcoming quarters.

Century Aluminum Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Century Aluminum Company, headquartered in Chicago, operates primary aluminum smelting facilities in the U.S. and Iceland and is a majority owner of the Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica. In its second quarter of 2025, Century Aluminum reported a net loss of $4.6 million, a significant drop from the previous quarter’s profit of $29.7 million. Despite a 4% increase in aluminum shipments, net sales slightly decreased to $628.1 million, primarily due to reduced third-party alumina sales. The company faced higher losses on derivative instruments and several exceptional items, including inventory adjustments and operational inefficiencies in Iceland. Adjusted net income stood at $30.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA was $74.3 million, both showing a decline from the previous quarter. The company has refinanced its senior secured notes, reducing interest expenses and extending maturity to 2032. Looking ahead, Century Aluminum anticipates a stronger third quarter with adjusted EBITDA expected to rise, driven by higher regional premium prices.

Century Aluminum Completes $400 Million Notes Offering

On July 22, 2025, Century Aluminum Company completed its offering of $400 million in 6.875% Senior Secured Notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used to refinance existing debt, repay borrowings, and cover related expenses, impacting the company’s financial structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (CENX) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Century Aluminum stock, see the CENX Stock Forecast page.