Century Aluminum (CENX)
NASDAQ:CENX
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Century Aluminum
(NASDAQ:CENX)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
▲(14.07% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/15/26
The score is driven by improving fundamentals and a healthier balance sheet, plus a positive earnings outlook with clear operational and strategic catalysts. These are offset by very thin and historically volatile profitability/cash flows, and a stretched valuation (high P/E). Technically the trend is strong, but overbought signals add near-term risk.
Positive Factors
Transformational Oklahoma smelter JV
The Oklahoma JV backed by a $500M DOE grant and EGA's EX technology creates durable scale and a structural cost advantage. A new U.S. smelter and >20% per‑unit productivity lift can lower long-term unit costs, expand capacity materially and strengthen competitive position.
Negative Factors
Thin and volatile profitability
TTM profitability is very thin and historically volatile, with past multi-year losses despite recent strong years. Low margin cushions increase sensitivity to commodity cycles and input cost swings, making earnings and free cash flow less predictable over a 2–6 month horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Transformational Oklahoma smelter JV
The Oklahoma JV backed by a $500M DOE grant and EGA's EX technology creates durable scale and a structural cost advantage. A new U.S. smelter and >20% per‑unit productivity lift can lower long-term unit costs, expand capacity materially and strengthen competitive position.
Read all positive factors
Century Aluminum (CENX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.07B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)88.3
Beta (1Y)2.07
Revenue Growth20.15%
EPS Growth-72.89%
CountryUS
Employees2,971
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.25
Shares Outstanding98,974,045
10 Day Avg. Volume1,823,170
30 Day Avg. Volume2,264,022
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.00
Price to Book (P/B)4.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio43.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit24.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda42.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$79.33Price Target Upside27.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)9.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.21B
Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The comp...
How the Company Makes Money
Century Aluminum primarily makes money by producing primary aluminum at its smelting facilities and selling that metal to customers, with revenue largely driven by shipment volumes and prevailing market prices for aluminum (often referenced to ben...
Century Aluminum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly constructive strategic and operational picture: management announced a transformational Oklahoma smelter JV (backed by DOE funding and Bechtel engagement), completed a lucrative Hawesville sale while retaining upside, and provided tangible operational recovery timelines that support a material production increase in 2026. Financially, adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow improved meaningfully and leverage declined. Near-term challenges remain — notably the Grundartangi outage-driven margin loss, Hurricane Melissa disruptions at Jamalco, a short-lived Midwest energy spike and some input-cost pressure — but insurance coverage, imminent turbine completion at Jamalco, earlier-than-expected repairs at Grundartangi, a supportive pricing backdrop, and the $200 million Hawesville proceeds all materially mitigate those issues. On balance, the positives and upside catalysts outweigh the transitory headwinds.Positive Updates
Oklahoma Smelter Partnership with EGA
Century announced a 60% EGA / 40% Century partnership to build the first new U.S. smelter in nearly 50 years, supported by a $500 million DOE grant. Bechtel was retained for next-stage engineering with a target final investment decision and groundbreaking by year-end. The project will use EGA's EX technology (expected >20% production improvement versus prior tech) and an expanded planned capacity of 750,000 metric tons, which management said would more than double total U.S. aluminum production.
Negative Updates
Grundartangi Potline 2 Outage and Lost Margin
A failure of three electrical transformers forced a temporary stop of potline 2 at Grundartangi, producing a significant margin loss (management cited ~$40–$50 million of lost margin in Q4). Replacement transformers have been ordered and insurers have confirmed coverage, but insurance reimbursements are expected on a 1–2 quarter lag, creating cash timing pressure. Full replacement transformers may not be installed until later in the year, though repaired units are expected to permit an earlier restart.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Oklahoma Smelter Partnership with EGA
Century announced a 60% EGA / 40% Century partnership to build the first new U.S. smelter in nearly 50 years, supported by a $500 million DOE grant. Bechtel was retained for next-stage engineering with a target final investment decision and groundbreaking by year-end. The project will use EGA's EX technology (expected >20% production improvement versus prior tech) and an expanded planned capacity of 750,000 metric tons, which management said would more than double total U.S. aluminum production.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $215–$235 million (midpoint $225M), built on a lagged LME of $2,850/ton, a lagged U.S. Midwest premium of $2,140/ton ($0.97/lb) and a European duty‑paid premium of about $315/ton, while flagging a $10–$15M headwind from realized hedge settlements and $0–$5M of tax expense; they also noted a $20M EBITDA hit at Sebree from a two‑week Indiana power spike (net cash impact ≈ $15M after $5M of positive hedges), modest raw‑materials and OpEx headwinds of $0–$5M each, and a $5M benefit from improved volume/mix. For fiscal 2026 the company expects ~630,000 tons of primary aluminum shipments (rising toward ~750,000 tpa once restarts are annualized), total CapEx of $115–$125M including ~$45M to restart the last 90 pots at Mt. Holly, lower cash interest, and insurance recoveries for the Iceland outage (≈$40M received in Q1 with further payments on a 1–2 quarter lag). Recent quarter metrics: Q4 shipments ~140,000 tons, net sales $634M, adjusted EBITDA $171M, adjusted net income $128M ($1.25/sh), ending cash $134M, net debt $421M, plus $200M cash from the Hawesville sale (closed Feb) and a retained 6.8% equity stake in the data center.Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.53B | 2.22B | 2.19B | 2.78B | 2.21B |
| Gross Profit | 256.40M | 185.00M | 91.90M | 46.70M | 124.20M |
| EBITDA | 142.20M | 448.70M | 43.40M | 136.10M | -84.60M |
| Net Income | 41.80M | 336.80M | -43.10M | -14.10M | -167.10M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.28B | 1.94B | 1.85B | 1.47B | 1.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 135.60M | 32.90M | 88.80M | 54.30M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 548.30M | 519.20M | 473.70M | 548.60M | 474.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.34B | 1.28B | 1.50B | 1.07B | 1.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 825.60M | 694.40M | 355.60M | 399.30M | 421.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 84.80M | -106.90M | 10.60M | -60.40M | -147.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 183.60M | -24.60M | 105.60M | 25.90M | -64.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -98.80M | -67.30M | -57.80M | -85.50M | -82.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 15.10M | 37.30M | -13.00M | 74.40M | 103.70M |
Century Aluminum Technical Analysis
Positive
62.24
Price Trends
55.34
Positive
47.26
Positive
36.35
Positive
Market Momentum
3.31
Negative
55.29
Neutral
46.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.25, above the 50-day MA of 55.34, and above the 200-day MA of 36.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CENX.
Century Aluminum Risk Analysis
Century Aluminum disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Century Aluminum reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Century Aluminum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $17.55B | 10.29 | 16.12% | 0.75% | 20.08% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $3.76B | 34.48 | 8.14% | 0.43% | 3.93% | -73.94% | |
67 Neutral | $2.46B | 16.50 | 14.22% | 2.64% | 7.69% | 91.86% | |
64 Neutral | $4.09B | 9.65 | 29.48% | ― | 8.48% | 12.10% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $6.07B | 88.30 | 5.54% | ― | 20.15% | -72.89% | |
42 Neutral | $1.80B | -5.92 | -13.62% | ― | -5.79% | -5.30% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CENX
Century Aluminum
61.40
45.33
282.08%
AA
Alcoa
67.15
43.10
179.21%
MTRN
Materion
178.36
98.73
123.99%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
153.22
99.22
183.71%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
1.30
-0.27
-17.20%
CSTM
Constellium
29.96
21.65
260.53%
Century Aluminum Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Century Aluminum Completes Hawesville Site Sale and Partnership
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Century Aluminum’s subsidiary Century Aluminum of Kentucky completed the sale of its approximately 750-acre Hawesville, Kentucky site, including related property, to Justified DataPower LLC for $200 million in cash and a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.