Century Aluminum (CENX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.47B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.80M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 60.7
• Beta (1Y): 2.03
• Revenue Growth: 20.15%
• EPS Growth: -72.89%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,971
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 0.56
• Shares Outstanding: 93,341,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,067,247
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,799,420
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.76
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.49
• 1Y Price Target: $45.67
• Price Target Upside: -3.99% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.49
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.70B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $50.00 ▲(5.11% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow (negative free cash flow and low cash conversion) and expensive valuation (P/E 50.31). Offsetting these are a strong upward technical trend and a supportive earnings outlook driven by strong aluminum pricing/premiums and Q4 EBITDA guidance, though operational disruption at Grundartangi remains a meaningful risk.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Positive revenue growth reflects strong demand for aluminum products, supporting long-term business expansion and market presence.

Strategic Expansion

The Mt. Holly expansion will increase production capacity, enhancing Century Aluminum's competitive position and revenue potential.

Energy Partnerships

Securing long-term energy agreements ensures stable operations and cost management, crucial for the energy-intensive aluminum industry.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Weak cash flow metrics indicate liquidity issues, potentially limiting Century Aluminum's ability to invest in growth and manage debt.

Operational Risks

Operational disruptions like the Grundartangi incident can impact production capacity and financial performance, posing long-term risks.

Profitability Margins

Low margins suggest inefficiencies and competitive pressures, affecting Century Aluminum's ability to generate sustainable profits.

Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Century Aluminum generates revenue primarily through the sale of primary aluminum and aluminum-related products. The company sells its aluminum to a diverse customer base, including manufacturers in the automotive and aerospace industries, as well as distributors and fabricators. Key revenue streams include contracts for long-term supply agreements and spot market sales, which can fluctuate based on global aluminum prices. Additionally, Century Aluminum benefits from strategic partnerships with energy suppliers to secure favorable energy rates, which is crucial given the energy-intensive nature of aluminum smelting. The company's financial performance is also affected by global demand for aluminum, production costs, and market conditions, including the pricing dynamics of aluminum on commodity exchanges.

Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderate profitability and positive revenue growth are offset by weak cash generation. Income statement strength (gross margin 9.52%, net margin 3.37%, revenue growth 3.83%) and manageable leverage (debt-to-equity 0.83) are tempered by negative free cash flow and very low operating cash flow conversion (operating cash flow to net income 0.07).

Income Statement

Century Aluminum's income statement shows a moderate performance with a gross profit margin of 9.52% and a net profit margin of 3.37% for the TTM period. The revenue growth rate is positive at 3.83%, indicating a recovery trend. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low at 3.77% and 8.39%, respectively, suggesting room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.83, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity is 11.81%, which is decent but shows a decline from the previous year. The equity ratio stands at 34.75%, suggesting a balanced capital structure but with potential risks if debt levels increase.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a negative free cash flow and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.92 for the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.07, indicating potential liquidity issues. Despite a significant improvement in free cash flow growth, the overall cash flow position remains weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.53B	2.22B	2.19B	2.78B	2.21B	1.61B
Gross Profit	240.40M	185.00M	91.90M	46.70M	124.20M	-36.50M
EBITDA	194.40M	448.70M	43.40M	136.10M	-84.60M	-11.70M
Net Income	85.20M	336.80M	-43.10M	-14.10M	-167.10M	-123.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.13B	1.94B	1.85B	1.47B	1.57B	1.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	151.40M	32.90M	88.80M	54.30M	29.00M	81.60M
Total Debt	618.50M	519.20M	473.70M	548.60M	474.10M	340.20M
Total Liabilities	1.44B	1.28B	1.50B	1.07B	1.15B	853.50M
Stockholders Equity	741.80M	694.40M	355.60M	399.30M	421.00M	546.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-37.50M	-106.90M	10.60M	-60.40M	-147.70M	29.50M
Operating Cash Flow	40.80M	-24.60M	105.60M	25.90M	-64.70M	42.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-50.20M	-67.30M	-57.80M	-85.50M	-82.60M	-11.80M
Financing Cash Flow	126.80M	37.30M	-13.00M	74.40M	103.70M	13.50M

Century Aluminum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 47.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.98, above the 50-day MA of 34.65, and above the 200-day MA of 24.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.37 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CENX.

Century Aluminum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AA	70 Outperform	$16.52B	14.49	19.77%	0.75%	20.08%	―
KALU	69 Neutral	$2.13B	23.70	12.41%	2.64%	7.69%	91.86%
MTRN	69 Neutral	$3.09B	162.76	2.08%	0.43%	3.93%	-73.94%
CSTM	62 Neutral	$3.16B	27.58	12.22%	―	8.48%	12.10%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CENX	56 Neutral	$4.47B	60.72	12.22%	―	20.15%	-72.89%
SID	54 Neutral	$2.44B	-8.83	-10.50%	―	-5.79%	-5.30%

Century Aluminum Corporate Events

Century Aluminum Halts Production Due to Equipment Failure

On October 21, 2025, Century Aluminum announced an electrical equipment failure at its Grundartangi, Iceland smelter, leading to a temporary halt in production on one of its two potlines. This incident has reduced the smelter’s production by approximately two-thirds, although the other potline remains operational. The company is conducting an impact assessment and working on a timeline for equipment replacement and full production restoration. Century Aluminum expects insurance to cover the losses and is coordinating with customers and suppliers to minimize business disruptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (CENX) stock is a Buy with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Century Aluminum stock, see the CENX Stock Forecast page.