Century Aluminum (CENX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.15B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.51M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.7
• Beta (1Y): 2.17
• Revenue Growth: 11.42%
• EPS Growth: -49.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,971
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 0.30
• Shares Outstanding: 93,339,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,501,542
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,511,314
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.26
• 1Y Price Target: $25.50
• Price Target Upside: 10.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $24.50 ▲(6.48% Upside)

Century Aluminum's overall score reflects strong earnings call results and positive technical indicators, showing potential momentum. However, financial performance is tempered by leverage and cash flow challenges, and valuation remains moderate. The significant earnings improvements and guidance provide optimism, but high leverage and cash conversion inefficiencies warrant caution.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

Net debt declined to $442mm from $497mm last quarter, while available liquidity increased significantly.

Financial Performance

Free cash flow generation is expected to remain strong and translate to further strengthening of the balance sheet.

Market Position

Century is the largest producer of primary aluminum in the U.S., producing ~378kt, which positions it well to benefit from the 25% Section 232 aluminum tariffs.

Profitability

Century's profitability profile has improved with the acquisition of a majority stake in the Jamalco refinery and benefits from tariffs.

Negative Factors

Cost Management

Higher costs associated with major planned maintenance and seasonal labor costs are considered one-time but impact the current outlook.

Earnings Outlook

The 2Q'25 EBITDA guided range of $80–90mm is disappointing and below prior estimates.

Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Century Aluminum makes money primarily through the production and sale of primary aluminum. The company's revenue model is driven by the demand for aluminum in various sectors, including transportation, packaging, and construction. Century Aluminum operates several smelters that convert raw materials into aluminum products, which are then sold to manufacturers and other end-users. Key revenue streams include sales contracts with industrial customers and partnerships with other companies to provide specialized aluminum products. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its production capabilities and market reach.

Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Century Aluminum's financials indicate recovery with profitability improvements and revenue growth. However, challenges persist with high leverage and cash flow inefficiencies. The income statement shows strong profitability recovery, but the balance sheet reflects leverage risks and the cash flow statement highlights conversion inefficiencies.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a strong recovery in profitability with a significant improvement in net income from a loss of $43.1 million in 2023 to a profit of $119.7 million in TTM 2025. The gross profit margin improved to 9.69% in TTM 2025 from 4.21% in 2022. Revenue growth is steady, with a TTM revenue of $2.36 billion, up from $2.22 billion in 2024. The EBIT margin has also improved to 7.00% in TTM 2025. However, the EBITDA margin decreased due to reduced EBITDA compared to 2024.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a moderate level of financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 0.65 in TTM 2025, suggesting potential leverage risk. The equity ratio is stable at 37.2%, showing a balanced asset funding by equity. Return on equity has improved significantly, reflecting better utilization of equity for generating net income. However, the high total liabilities relative to equity might pose financial risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with negative free cash flow of $11.3 million in TTM 2025, though an improvement from the previous year. Operating cash flow has improved to $62.5 million but remains relatively low compared to net income, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.52. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating inefficiencies in converting income into free cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.22B	2.19B	2.78B	2.21B	1.61B
Gross Profit	185.00M	91.90M	46.70M	124.20M	-36.50M
EBITDA	448.70M	43.40M	82.60M	-84.60M	-11.70M
Net Income	336.80M	-43.10M	-14.00M	-167.00M	-123.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.94B	1.85B	1.47B	1.57B	1.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	32.90M	88.80M	54.30M	29.00M	81.60M
Total Debt	519.20M	473.70M	548.60M	474.10M	340.20M
Total Liabilities	1.28B	1.50B	1.07B	1.15B	853.50M
Stockholders Equity	694.40M	355.60M	399.30M	421.00M	546.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-106.90M	10.60M	-60.40M	-147.70M	29.50M
Operating Cash Flow	-24.60M	105.60M	25.90M	-64.70M	42.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-67.30M	-57.80M	-85.50M	-82.60M	-11.80M
Financing Cash Flow	37.30M	-13.00M	74.40M	103.70M	13.50M

Century Aluminum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 23.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.50, above the 50-day MA of 19.68, and above the 200-day MA of 19.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CENX.

Century Aluminum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTRN	73 Outperform	$2.21B	139.10	1.79%	0.51%	5.55%	-79.38%
CENX	70 Outperform	$2.15B	20.70	17.74%	―	11.42%	-49.21%
AA	69 Neutral	$7.81B	7.74	20.01%	1.33%	21.32%	―
KALU	65 Neutral	$1.20B	18.99	8.89%	4.17%	4.62%	56.04%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$9.73B	6.73	-0.14%	3.11%	2.72%	-42.86%
CSTM	61 Neutral	$1.88B	70.10	3.02%	―	2.52%	-83.35%
SID	50 Neutral	$1.80B	―	-15.57%	16.63%	-10.77%	-191.87%

Century Aluminum Corporate Events

Century Aluminum Completes $400 Million Notes Offering

On July 22, 2025, Century Aluminum Company completed its offering of $400 million in 6.875% Senior Secured Notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used to refinance existing debt, repay borrowings, and cover related expenses, impacting the company’s financial structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (CENX) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Century Aluminum stock, see the CENX Stock Forecast page.

Century Aluminum Announces $400M Senior Notes Offering

On July 16, 2025, Century Aluminum Company announced a proposed private offering of $400 million in senior secured notes due in 2032. The proceeds from this offering are intended to refinance the company’s 7.50% senior secured notes due in 2028, repay borrowings under its credit facilities, and cover related fees and expenses. This strategic financial move is aimed at optimizing Century’s debt structure and enhancing its financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (CENX) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Century Aluminum stock, see the CENX Stock Forecast page.