Constellium (CSTM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.88B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 70.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: 2.52%
• EPS Growth: -83.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 139,539,020
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,861,910
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,411,827
• PEG Ratio: -0.48
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.20
• P/FCF Ratio: -13.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.18
• 1Y Price Target: $17.00
• Price Target Upside: 29.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▲(7.03% Upside)

Constellium's overall stock score is influenced by a mix of strengths and risks. While operational efficiency and raised financial guidance are positive, the high leverage, negative cash flow, and valuation concerns weigh heavily. The technical analysis suggests some stability, but the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. Earnings call insights provide some optimism, but significant challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Constellium raised its 2025 EBITDA guide by approximately 3%, signaling confidence in its financial outlook despite macro and trade uncertainties.

Market Opportunities

Recovering aerospace build rates and defense infrastructure investments are positive factors for Constellium's long-term growth prospects.

Share Repurchases

Increased free cash flow generation is expected to support healthy share repurchases, enhancing shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Leverage

Leverage remains elevated at 3.6x, above the targeted range of 1.5-2.5x, indicating potential financial risk.

Market Conditions

Constellium is experiencing a rough patch due to cyclical end market weakness, impacting its current performance.

Constellium Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Constellium SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products for the packaging, aerospace, and automotive end-markets. The company operates through three segments: Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, Aerospace & Transportation, and Automotive Structures & Industry. The Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment produces rolled aluminum products, including can stock and closure stock for the beverage and food industry, as well as foil stock for the flexible packaging market. It also supplies automotive body sheets and heat exchangers for the automotive market; and specialty reflective sheets. The Aerospace & Transportation segment provides rolled aluminum products, including aerospace plates, sheets, and extrusions; and aerospace wing skins, as well as plates and sheets for use in transportation, industry, and defense applications. The Automotive Structures & Industry segment offers extruded products and technologically advanced structures for the automotive industry, including crash-management systems, body structures, side impact beams, and battery enclosures; and hard and soft alloy extruded profiles for various industry applications in the automotive, engineering, rail, and other transportation end markets. This segment also provides downstream technology and services, which include pre-machining, surface treatment, research and development, and technical support services. The company sells its products directly or through distributors in France, Germany, the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and the United States, as well as Shanghai, and Seoul. Constellium SE was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Constellium generates revenue primarily through the sale of its aluminum products, which include rolled products, extrusions, and specialized solutions tailored for the automotive and aerospace sectors. The company operates on a business model that focuses on long-term contracts and partnerships with major customers, ensuring stable revenue streams. Key revenue sources include the automotive sector, where Constellium supplies aluminum solutions for vehicle lightweighting, and the aerospace sector, providing essential components for aircraft manufacturing. Additionally, Constellium benefits from its strategic collaborations with leading companies in its target markets, enhancing its market presence and driving sales growth. The company's commitment to innovation and sustainability also positions it favorably in securing contracts that prioritize eco-friendly materials and manufacturing processes.

Constellium Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Constellium shows operational efficiency with robust gross profit and EBIT margins. However, the high leverage and negative free cash flow highlight financial vulnerabilities. Despite some revenue recovery, the balance sheet and cash flow issues are significant concerns for long-term stability.

Income Statement

Constellium's revenue shows a mixed trend with a slight decline in recent years, but the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data presents an improvement, indicating potential recovery. The gross profit margin is strong at 37.2% for TTM, suggesting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is modest at 1.7% for the same period, reflecting challenges in achieving higher profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, with TTM figures at 32.5% and 5.3%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet highlights a high debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 2.54 for TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is moderate at 16.2% for TTM, reflecting reasonable profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 14.8% for the same period, suggesting limited equity financing and potential vulnerability during financial downturns.

Cash Flow

Constellium's cash flow analysis reveals challenges, particularly with negative free cash flow in recent periods, including TTM at -$105 million. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.38 for TTM, suggesting adequate cash conversion from earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating issues in sustaining capital expenditures and operational cash requirements.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.33B	7.08B	7.24B	7.97B	6.15B	4.88B
Gross Profit	1.01B	905.45M	710.00M	899.35M	664.00M	490.00M
EBITDA	385.92M	530.91M	605.00M	592.09M	764.00M	454.00M
Net Income	75.06M	54.06M	125.00M	301.00M	257.00M	-21.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.17B	4.73B	4.66B	4.94B	4.62B	4.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	118.00M	141.00M	210.00M	165.68M	147.00M	478.00M
Total Debt	2.06B	1.94B	1.87B	2.06B	2.13B	2.39B
Total Liabilities	4.40B	4.01B	3.80B	4.19B	4.33B	4.23B
Stockholders Equity	765.00M	681.50M	843.00M	731.00M	274.00M	-115.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-105.08M	-108.11M	169.00M	178.00M	125.00M	152.00M
Operating Cash Flow	294.74M	301.00M	506.00M	451.00M	357.00M	334.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-299.28M	-313.00M	-288.00M	-270.00M	-221.00M	-176.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-70.95M	-61.00M	-177.00M	-163.00M	-435.00M	101.00M

Constellium Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 13.08
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSTM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.74, below the 50-day MA of 13.58, and above the 200-day MA of 11.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CSTM.

Constellium Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CENX	72 Outperform	$2.15B	20.70	17.74%	―	15.39%	-47.91%
AA	66 Neutral	$7.59B	7.52	20.01%	1.33%	21.32%	―
KALU	65 Neutral	$1.20B	18.99	8.89%	4.25%	4.62%	56.04%
CSTM	61 Neutral	$1.88B	70.10	3.02%	―	2.52%	-83.35%
RDUS	55 Neutral	$847.73M	―	-17.65%	2.50%	4.13%	62.89%
NGVT	55 Neutral	$1.87B	―	-106.83%	―	-14.45%	49.92%
Sector *	44 Neutral	AU$1.53B	-7.23	-27.95%	4.48%	-2.91%	-36.73%