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Constellium
(NYSE:CSTM)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(3.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is supported most by improved fundamentals and a strong, guidance-raising earnings call (record performance, higher 2026 EBITDA/FCF targets, and continued balance-sheet progress), plus a low P/E valuation. These positives are tempered by weak intermediate-term technical trend (below key short/mid moving averages) and remaining financial risk from meaningful leverage and uneven cash conversion/FCF durability through the cycle.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Margin Improvement
Sustained revenue growth and materially improved operating margins indicate stronger commercial execution and pricing power in higher‑value end markets (aerospace, advanced automotive). This durable shift supports higher recurring profitability and better shock absorption across cycles.
Negative Factors
Metal Price / Scrap Spread Volatility
A meaningful portion of recent EBITDA was driven by non‑cash metal price lag and favorable scrap spreads. These are inherently volatile and can reverse, creating material swings in reported profitability and cash outcomes that weaken predictability of core earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Margin Improvement
Sustained revenue growth and materially improved operating margins indicate stronger commercial execution and pricing power in higher‑value end markets (aerospace, advanced automotive). This durable shift supports higher recurring profitability and better shock absorption across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Constellium Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability after normalizing one-off items for each business unit, revealing which parts of Constellium generate the strongest margins, how pricing and costs affect earnings, and where profit risks or improvements are coming from.
Shows profitability after normalizing one-off items for each business unit, revealing which parts of Constellium generate the strongest margins, how pricing and costs affect earnings, and where profit risks or improvements are coming from.
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The Fly
The FlyConstellium (CSTM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.76B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.0
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth25.94%
EPS Growth1920.11%
CountryUS
Employees11,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.99
Shares Outstanding135,527,730
10 Day Avg. Volume1,680,967
30 Day Avg. Volume1,785,312
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.31
P/FCF Ratio16.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.40Price Target Upside28.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)3.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.45B
Constellium Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Constellium SE, along with its various subsidiaries, specializes in the development, production, and distribution of high-performance rolled and extruded aluminum solutions. These solutions primarily serve the packaging, aerospace, and automotive ...
How the Company Makes Money
Constellium makes money primarily by selling aluminum products—mainly rolled products (such as can sheet, automotive body sheet, and aerospace plate/sheet) and extruded products (used in transportation and industrial applications)—to industrial cu...
Constellium Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial update driven by record Adjusted EBITDA, significant year-over-year revenue and profit growth, improved cash generation, reduced leverage and continued shareholder returns. Management emphasized key operational milestones (start-up of Issoire cast house, recycling capacity ramps) and raised full-year guidance while acknowledging some risks: packaging volume softness, regional automotive headwinds in Europe, metal price/scrap spread volatility, elevated working capital needs, and geopolitical cost pressures. Overall, positives (record results, raised guidance, balance sheet improvement, clear investment ramp plans) materially outweigh the moderate and manageable challenges discussed.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $439 million in Q2 2026 (includes a $129 million positive non-cash metal price lag). Excluding metal price lag, Adjusted EBITDA was $310 million, a record for the company and up 88% versus Q2 2025 ($165 million). Net income rose to $148 million versus $36 million in Q2 2025.
Negative Updates
Packaging Volume Decline
Packaging shipments decreased 9% year-over-year in Q2 despite management saying underlying demand remains healthy in North America and Europe; some capacity was reallocated to support automotive needs in North America.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $439 million in Q2 2026 (includes a $129 million positive non-cash metal price lag). Excluding metal price lag, Adjusted EBITDA was $310 million, a record for the company and up 88% versus Q2 2025 ($165 million). Net income rose to $148 million versus $36 million in Q2 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Constellium raised its 2026 outlook, now targeting Adjusted EBITDA (ex‑metal price lag) of €980–1,020 million and Free Cash Flow in excess of €300 million; it expects CapEx ≈€330 million (including ~€100 million return‑seeking), cash interest ≈€125 million, cash taxes ≈€105 million, and holdings & corporate expense ≈€55 million for the year, with working capital a larger use of cash due to higher metal prices. The company ended Q2 with net debt of €1.8 billion, leverage of 1.8x (target range 1.5–2.5x), liquidity >€1.0 billion, completed a €100 million partial redemption of the €325 million 5.625% senior notes (leaving €225 million outstanding), and has ~€287 million remaining on its buyback program after repurchasing 623k shares for €20 million in Q2 (1.8m YTD for €48m; 15.3m since 2024 for €241m, ~€15.75/share); management said recycling/other metal‑cost benefits should remain favorable but taper in H2 and that 2028 targets are now expected two years early.Constellium Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.58B | 8.45B | 7.08B | 7.11B | 7.93B | 6.97B |
| Gross Profit | 1.26B | 857.00M | 905.83M | 958.68M | 894.89M | 751.79M |
| EBITDA | 1.07B | 852.00M | 523.41M | 580.66M | 500.88M | 802.74M |
| Net Income | 545.00M | 273.00M | 54.08M | 138.12M | 286.22M | 290.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.07B | 5.35B | 4.73B | 4.66B | 5.27B | 5.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 163.00M | 119.96M | 141.00M | 210.00M | 177.16M | 167.17M |
| Total Debt | 1.92B | 1.94B | 1.94B | 1.87B | 2.19B | 2.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.82B | 4.38B | 4.01B | 3.80B | 4.47B | 4.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.25B | 951.71M | 706.00M | 843.00M | 780.16M | 311.59M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 221.94M | 158.95M | -108.16M | 66.00M | 186.02M | 125.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 559.61M | 488.85M | 290.68M | 432.00M | 472.94M | 357.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -322.66M | -315.90M | -307.09M | -219.00M | -285.87M | -221.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -205.24M | -207.94M | -54.08M | -174.00M | -168.16M | -435.00M |
Constellium Technical Analysis
Positive
29.05
Price Trends
31.64
Negative
30.39
Negative
25.23
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.71
Negative
50.26
Neutral
47.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSTM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.88, below the 50-day MA of 31.64, and above the 200-day MA of 25.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSTM.
Constellium Risk Analysis
Constellium disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellium reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Constellium Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $2.61B | 11.45 | 26.29% | 1.89% | 32.83% | 251.96% | |
67 Neutral | $3.76B | 6.96 | 52.38% | ― | 25.94% | 1920.11% | |
62 Neutral | $4.39B | 57.14 | 8.17% | 0.23% | 11.39% | 651.28% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $11.94B | 9.20 | 19.16% | 0.90% | 6.14% | 25.38% | |
61 Neutral | $4.43B | 12.69 | 40.62% | ― | 7.54% | 183.70% | |
59 Neutral | $2.51B | 47.47 | 85.17% | ― | -12.42% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CSTM
Constellium
29.68
16.05
117.75%
AA
Alcoa
46.83
17.44
59.33%
MTRN
Materion
227.10
118.98
110.04%
CENX
Century Aluminum
47.12
26.06
123.74%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
174.61
102.54
142.27%
NGVT
Ingevity
75.58
26.02
52.50%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.