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Constellium
(NYSE:CSTM)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(28.47% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/30/26
The score is primarily driven by improving profitability and positive free cash flow but constrained by thin margins and still-elevated leverage. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, though momentum is near overbought. Valuation is attractive on a low P/E, and the raised 2026 outlook adds support, tempered by working-capital/commodity sensitivity and cost/market risks.
Positive Factors
Record operational profitability
Record adjusted EBITDA and strong quarter-level profitability demonstrate improved operational execution across segments. That scale supports reinvestment, buybacks and stronger cash flow generation, providing a more durable earnings base if the company maintains discipline and demand.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
A sizable debt load and still-elevated leverage constrain financial flexibility in a cyclical, capital-intensive industry. Higher leverage increases interest exposure and limits the company's ability to absorb demand shocks or accelerate strategic investments without further issuances or curtailed returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record operational profitability
Record adjusted EBITDA and strong quarter-level profitability demonstrate improved operational execution across segments. That scale supports reinvestment, buybacks and stronger cash flow generation, providing a more durable earnings base if the company maintains discipline and demand.
Read all positive factors
Constellium Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability after normalizing one-off items for each business unit, revealing which parts of Constellium generate the strongest margins, how pricing and costs affect earnings, and where profit risks or improvements are coming from.
Shows profitability after normalizing one-off items for each business unit, revealing which parts of Constellium generate the strongest margins, how pricing and costs affect earnings, and where profit risks or improvements are coming from.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyConstellium (CSTM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.3
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth20.15%
EPS Growth583.93%
CountryUS
Employees12,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.18
Shares Outstanding136,150,450
10 Day Avg. Volume1,744,526
30 Day Avg. Volume2,090,965
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.31
P/FCF Ratio16.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.60
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.34
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$36.80Price Target Upside24.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)3.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.37B
Constellium Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Constellium SE, along with its various subsidiaries, specializes in the development, production, and distribution of high-performance rolled and extruded aluminum solutions. These solutions primarily serve the packaging, aerospace, and automotive ...
How the Company Makes Money
Constellium makes money primarily by selling aluminum products—mainly rolled products (such as can sheet, automotive body sheet, and aerospace plate/sheet) and extruded products (used in transportation and industrial applications)—to industrial cu...
Constellium Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial progress: record quarterly adjusted EBITDA, double-digit revenue growth, improved net income, robust segment performances (multiple records), stronger liquidity, and an expanded share repurchase program. Management raised 2026 guidance and reiterated multi-year targets and focused return-seeking investments. However, the strength of results is materially helped by favorable and partly noncash metal and scrap dynamics and by temporary market dislocations (automotive rolled-product shortage). Key risks highlighted include metal/scrap volatility, higher working capital and CapEx, emerging inflationary pressures (freight, lubricants, coatings), European automotive weakness, and geopolitical uncertainty. On balance, the positives (large, quantifiable improvements and upgraded guidance) outweigh the risks, though execution and commodity-market persistence are important caveats.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA was $359 million in Q1 2026, up 93% year-over-year; excluding a positive noncash metal price lag of $97 million adjusted EBITDA was $262 million (an all-time company record), up 78% versus $147 million in Q1 2025. Net income was $196 million versus $38 million in Q1 2025.
Negative Updates
Low Free Cash Flow in Q1 and Working Capital Drag
Free cash flow was only $5 million in Q1 2026 (despite higher EBITDA), with higher working capital and increased CapEx partially offsetting earnings; company expects working capital to be a larger use of cash for the full year due to higher metal prices.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA was $359 million in Q1 2026, up 93% year-over-year; excluding a positive noncash metal price lag of $97 million adjusted EBITDA was $262 million (an all-time company record), up 78% versus $147 million in Q1 2025. Net income was $196 million versus $38 million in Q1 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Constellium raised its 2026 outlook, now targeting adjusted EBITDA excluding the noncash metal‑price‑lag impact of $900–$940 million and free cash flow in excess of $275 million (with a 2028 ambition of $900 million EBITDA ex‑lag and $300 million FCF); 2026 CapEx is expected to be ~ $330 million (up from $315 million) including ~ $100 million of return‑seeking projects, cash interest ~ $125 million, cash taxes ~ $80 million, and a larger working‑capital use due to higher metal prices. Q1 metrics underpinning the guide included shipments of 370,000 tons, revenue of $2.5 billion (+24% YoY), net income of $196 million, adjusted EBITDA of $359 million (including a $97 million positive metal‑price‑lag effect) or $262 million excluding that lag, and free cash flow of $5 million; net debt was $1.8 billion, leverage 2.2x (target range 1.5x–2.5x), liquidity $904 million. The company repurchased $28 million of stock (1.2 million shares) in Q1, has repurchased 14.7 million shares for $221 million to date, and announced a new $300 million repurchase program through December 2028; the guidance assumes continued favorable market dynamics (North American rolled‑product shortages, stronger aerospace and TID, and favorable scrap/metal conditions) and seasonal Q2 strength.Constellium Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.61B | 8.45B | 7.08B | 7.11B | 7.93B | 6.97B |
| Gross Profit | 1.13B | 857.00M | 905.83M | 958.68M | 894.89M | 751.79M |
| EBITDA | 1.01B | 852.00M | 523.41M | 580.66M | 500.88M | 802.74M |
| Net Income | 429.58M | 273.00M | 54.08M | 138.12M | 286.22M | 290.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.84B | 5.35B | 4.73B | 4.66B | 5.27B | 5.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 143.00M | 119.96M | 141.00M | 210.00M | 177.16M | 167.17M |
| Total Debt | 1.97B | 1.94B | 1.94B | 1.87B | 2.19B | 2.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.71B | 4.38B | 4.01B | 3.80B | 4.47B | 4.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.12B | 951.71M | 706.00M | 843.00M | 780.16M | 311.59M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 174.94M | 158.95M | -108.16M | 66.00M | 186.02M | 125.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 512.61M | 488.85M | 290.68M | 432.00M | 472.94M | 357.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -325.66M | -315.90M | -307.09M | -219.00M | -285.87M | -221.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -170.24M | -207.94M | -54.08M | -174.00M | -168.16M | -435.00M |
Constellium Technical Analysis
Negative
29.58
Price Trends
33.07
Negative
29.55
Negative
23.71
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.69
Positive
36.29
Neutral
15.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSTM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.33, below the 50-day MA of 33.07, and above the 200-day MA of 23.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CSTM.
Constellium Risk Analysis
Constellium disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellium reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Constellium Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $4.02B | 9.27 | 46.49% | ― | 20.15% | 583.93% | |
68 Neutral | $2.88B | 18.61 | 18.68% | 2.64% | 20.84% | 247.80% | |
63 Neutral | $5.52B | 71.93 | 8.17% | 0.43% | 11.39% | 651.28% | |
62 Neutral | $12.85B | 12.14 | 16.27% | 0.75% | 0.51% | 17.91% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $4.33B | 12.40 | 40.62% | ― | 7.54% | 183.70% | |
55 Neutral | $2.52B | -20.71 | -156.14% | ― | -10.27% | 63.55% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CSTM
Constellium
29.49
15.36
108.70%
AA
Alcoa
48.68
19.10
64.57%
MTRN
Materion
265.43
185.03
230.15%
CENX
Century Aluminum
43.76
25.39
138.21%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
176.27
95.36
117.86%
NGVT
Ingevity
72.49
27.15
59.88%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.