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Constellium NV (CSTM)
NYSE:CSTM
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Constellium
(NYSE:CSTM)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(7.73% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven primarily by improving (but still leveraged and cyclical) financial performance and strong technical uptrend signals. Valuation is reasonable at a 13.243 P/E, and the latest earnings call adds support via constructive 2026 EBITDA/FCF guidance and leverage-improvement plans, tempered by scrap/metal volatility exposure and weaker European auto demand.
Positive Factors
Diversified end-market exposure
Constellium's diversified exposure to aerospace, automotive and packaging creates durable demand drivers. Long-term OEM partnerships and contracts (notably for automotive lightweighting and aerospace high‑strength alloys) support stable revenue streams through industry cycles and structural trends.
Consistent operating cash generation
The business generates reliable operating cash flow (historically ~$301M–$473M and $416M in 2025) and returned to positive FCF in 2025. This cash generation underpins capex, buybacks and debt paydown potential, improving resilience versus peers reliant on cyclical working capital swings.
Improving leverage and liquidity profile
Leverage has come down from earlier peaks, equity has recovered, and the company holds meaningful liquidity with no near‑term bond maturities. That structural improvement increases financial flexibility for Vision 2028 investments and cushions cyclicality while management executes deleveraging plans.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage remains
Although leverage has improved, debt levels remain elevated versus equity, keeping balance sheet risk material. Persistent leverage constrains capital allocation choices, raises refinancing sensitivity in downturns, and requires sustained FCF to reach targeted net‑debt/EBITDA levels.
Metal/scrap price volatility impacts earnings
Earnings have recently been assisted by noncash metal‑price lag benefits and favorable recycling spreads. Those items can reverse quickly, creating earnings cadence risk. Structural margin durability depends on persistent scrap economics, which are outside company control and can impair guidance reliability.
Cyclical end‑market exposure, Europe auto weakness
Constellium's revenue is tied to cyclical sectors (auto, aerospace, industrial). Persistent weakness in European automotive and pockets of specialty demand depress volumes and margins. Structural cyclicality means recoveries may be uneven and can pressure free cash flow during downturns.
Constellium (CSTM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.41B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.4
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth8.48%
EPS Growth12.10%
CountryUS
Employees12,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.71
Shares Outstanding137,801,770
10 Day Avg. Volume2,610,922
30 Day Avg. Volume1,808,543
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.31
P/FCF Ratio16.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.00Price Target Upside7.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)2.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.13B
Constellium Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionConstellium SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products for the packaging, aerospace, and automotive end-markets. The company operates through three segments: Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, Aerospace & Transportation, and Automotive Structures & Industry. The Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment produces rolled aluminum products, including can stock and closure stock for the beverage and food industry, as well as foil stock for the flexible packaging market. It also supplies automotive body sheets and heat exchangers for the automotive market; and specialty reflective sheets. The Aerospace & Transportation segment provides rolled aluminum products, including aerospace plates, sheets, and extrusions; and aerospace wing skins, as well as plates and sheets for use in transportation, industry, and defense applications. The Automotive Structures & Industry segment offers extruded products and technologically advanced structures for the automotive industry, including crash-management systems, body structures, side impact beams, and battery enclosures; and hard and soft alloy extruded profiles for various industry applications in the automotive, engineering, rail, and other transportation end markets. This segment also provides downstream technology and services, which include pre-machining, surface treatment, research and development, and technical support services. The company sells its products directly or through distributors in France, Germany, the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and the United States, as well as Shanghai, and Seoul. Constellium SE was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
How the Company Makes MoneyConstellium generates revenue through the production and sale of aluminum products across its three primary sectors. Its revenue model is built on manufacturing high-value products that cater to specific industry needs, including lightweight components for automotive applications that enhance fuel efficiency and advanced materials for aerospace projects that require high strength and durability. Key revenue streams include sales from rolled and extruded products, as well as specialized solutions and services offered to clients. The company has established significant partnerships with leading automotive manufacturers and aerospace companies, which help ensure a steady demand for its products. Additionally, Constellium benefits from long-term contracts and relationships with customers, providing a stable income source, while also adapting its offerings to meet evolving industry trends and regulations.
Constellium Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated materially improved operating performance, record and near-record profitability, stronger free cash flow and aggressive shareholder returns, underpinned by segment-level recoveries (notably PARP and A&T) and improved recycling economics. Management balanced these positives with caution about the cyclicality and volatility of scrap/metal economics, regional automotive weakness (especially in Europe), inflationary cost pressure, and some lingering operational/corporate cost headwinds. Guidance for 2026 is constructive but includes assumptions about the persistence of favorable scrap spreads and demand trends, and management launched Vision 2028 to institutionalize further efficiencies.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Shipments and Revenue Growth
Q4 shipments of 365,000 tons, up 11% year-over-year; Q4 revenue of $2.2 billion, up 28% year-over-year driven by higher shipments and higher revenue per ton (including higher metal prices).
Significant Improvement in Profitability (Quarter)
Q4 net income of $113 million versus a net loss of $47 million in Q4 2024. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $280 million, up 124% year-over-year; excluding a $67 million positive noncash metal price lag impact, adjusted EBITDA was $213 million (up 113% vs. $100 million in Q4 2024).
Full Year Revenue and EBITDA Gains
FY2025 revenue of $8.4 billion, up 15% versus 2024. FY adjusted EBITDA was $846 million, up 36% year-over-year; excluding a $126 million positive metal price lag impact, adjusted EBITDA was $720 million (up from $575 million in 2024, ~25% increase) — the company's second-best year ever on that basis.
Improved Cash Generation and Capital Returns
Q4 free cash flow of $110 million and FY free cash flow of $178 million (well ahead of 2024). Returned $115 million to shareholders in 2025 via repurchases (8.9 million shares), including $40 million (2.4 million shares) in Q4; ~$106 million remaining on repurchase authorization to be funded by free cash flow.
Segment-Level Records and Strong PARP Performance
PARP delivered a quarterly record adjusted EBITDA of $136 million in Q4, up 143% year-over-year; packaging shipments increased 15% in Q4 and muscle shoals operational improvement materially helped results. A&T Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $83 million, up 43% year-over-year with TID shipments up 41%.
Balance Sheet Strength and Leverage Improvement
Net debt of $1.8 billion at year-end 2025 (translation-driven increase ~ $50M); leverage reduced to 2.5x (at the upper end of target range). Liquidity increased ~ $140 million year-over-year to $866 million; no bond maturities until 2028 and no outstanding ABL borrowings.
Clear 2026 Guidance and 2028 Targets
2026 guidance: adjusted EBITDA excluding metal price lag $780M–$820M and free cash flow in excess of $200M. Reiterated 2028 targets of adjusted EBITDA (ex-lag) $900M and free cash flow $300M, with Vision 2028 program launched to drive operational efficiencies and cost reduction.
Safety and Operational Improvements
Recordable case rate improved to 1.9 in 2025 (better than industry average) and operational recoveries (e.g., Muscle Shoals and Valais) supported quarterly volume and profitability gains.
Negative Updates
Missed Ambitious Safety Target
Although safety improved, the company missed its target of a 1.5 recordable case rate, finishing 2025 at 1.9 and emphasizing continued focus is needed.
Metal Price / Scrap Volatility and Reliance on Noncash Impacts
Adjusted EBITDA benefited from positive noncash metal price lag of $67M in Q4 and $126M for FY2025; management warns recycling economics and scrap spreads are volatile and benefits may taper through 2026, creating earnings cadence risk.
Regional Automotive Weakness and Specific Production Impacts
Automotive shipments down 10% in AS&I in Q4; European automotive market remains weak (particularly premium segment) and automotive structures business was negatively affected by supply shortages on certain OEM platforms, offsetting some rolled-product gains.
AS&I Full Year Decline and Ongoing Specialty Weakness in Europe
AS&I adjusted EBITDA for FY2025 was $72 million, a 3% decrease versus 2024. Industrial/specialty markets in Europe remain depressed despite signs of bottoming, limiting near-term upside.
Rising Operating Costs and Corporate Expense
Holdings and corporate expense increased to $44M in 2025, up $11M year-over-year (higher labor and transformation costs); management expects holdings/corporate to run ~ $50M in 2026 amid continued inflationary pressure on labor, energy, maintenance and supplies.
Modest Net Debt Increase and Leverage at Upper Target
Net debt rose by approximately $50M (FX translation impact) and leverage sits at 2.5x — the upper bound of the stated target range, leaving limited near-term cushion until leverage trends lower as planned in 2026.
Guidance Sensitivity and Uncertainties
2026 guidance assumes continuation of recent demand trends and stable macro conditions; management acknowledges limited visibility into H2 2026, potential tapering of scrap benefits, and ongoing tariff/policy uncertainties (CBAM concerns, Section 232 effects).
Company Guidance
Constellium guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA excluding the non‑cash metal‑price‑lag impact to $780–$820 million and free cash flow in excess of $200 million, with expected CapEx of ~ $115 million (≈ $100 million return‑seeking), cash interest of ~ $125 million, cash taxes of ~ $70 million and working capital a use of cash; they expect leverage to trend lower from year‑end 2025 (net debt $1.8 billion, leverage 2.5x, liquidity $866 million), have ~ $106 million remaining on the buyback, and no bond maturities until 2028. For context, FY‑2025 shipments were 1.5 million tons (+4%), revenue $8.4 billion (+15%), net income $275 million, adjusted EBITDA $846 million (incl. $126 million metal price lag; ex‑lag $720 million), free cash flow $178 million, and Q4‑2025 shipments were 365k tons, revenue $2.2 billion, adj. EBITDA $280 million (incl. $67 million lag; ex‑lag $213 million) with Q4 free cash flow $110 million. They reiterated longer‑term targets of adjusted EBITDA ex‑lag $900 million and free cash flow $300 million by 2028 and raised the A&T adjusted‑EBITDA per ton target to $1,300 (from $1,100).Constellium Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial statements are improving but still mixed: profitability rebounded strongly in the most recent period and operating cash flow is consistently positive, but revenue has been volatile/cyclical, free cash flow has been inconsistent (including a deficit in 2024), and leverage remains elevated despite improvement.Income Statement
Revenue has been volatile, with a strong rebound in 2021–2022 followed by declines in 2023 and a modest drop again in 2025 (annual revenue down ~8%). Profitability is positive and improved meaningfully in 2025 versus 2024 (net income rose from $56M to $232M, and EBIT/EBITDA also strengthened), but margins have not been consistently strong across the period and the business remains sensitive to down-cycles (including a loss in 2020). Overall: improving recent earnings power, but uneven top-line trajectory and cyclical pressure keep the score mid-range.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the main constraint. Total debt remains high (about $1.65B in 2025) relative to equity (~$810M), though the debt load has come down from 2021–2022 peaks. Equity has improved materially from negative territory in 2020 and very low levels in 2021, which is a clear positive, but historical debt-to-equity levels have been elevated (roughly 2–3x in 2022–2024, and extremely high in 2021 due to low equity). Overall: balance sheet is on a better footing than earlier years, but leverage still limits financial flexibility.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is consistently positive (roughly $301M–$473M in 2021–2024 and $416M in 2025), which supports underlying earnings quality. Free cash flow, however, is more volatile: negative in 2024 (-$112M) before recovering to positive in 2025 ($135M). This swing suggests higher reinvestment needs and/or working-capital variability, reducing reliability of cash available for debt reduction or shareholder returns. Overall: solid operating cash generation, but free cash flow consistency is a key weakness.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.19B | 7.33B | 7.24B | 8.53B | 6.15B |
| Gross Profit | 729.39M | 938.00M | 710.00M | 963.00M | 664.00M |
| EBITDA | 684.28M | 542.00M | 605.00M | 539.00M | 764.00M |
| Net Income | 232.35M | 56.00M | 125.00M | 308.00M | 257.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.56B | 4.73B | 4.66B | 5.27B | 5.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 102.13M | 141.00M | 210.00M | 177.16M | 167.17M |
| Total Debt | 1.65B | 1.94B | 1.87B | 2.19B | 2.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.73B | 4.01B | 3.80B | 4.47B | 4.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | 810.25M | 706.00M | 843.00M | 780.16M | 311.59M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 135.32M | -112.00M | 66.00M | 186.02M | 125.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 416.19M | 301.00M | 432.00M | 472.94M | 357.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -268.95M | -318.00M | -219.00M | -285.87M | -221.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -177.03M | -56.00M | -174.00M | -168.16M | -435.00M |
Constellium Technical Analysis
Positive
25.99
Price Trends
21.97
Positive
19.03
Positive
16.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.99
Positive
64.82
Neutral
61.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSTM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.37, above the 50-day MA of 21.97, and above the 200-day MA of 16.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSTM.
Constellium Risk Analysis
Constellium disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellium reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Constellium Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $15.90B | 13.89 | 20.73% | 0.75% | 20.08% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $3.22B | 43.34 | 8.26% | 0.43% | 3.93% | -73.94% | |
66 Neutral | $3.41B | 13.42 | 32.93% | ― | 8.48% | 12.10% | |
65 Neutral | $4.99B | 134.06 | 5.50% | ― | 20.15% | -72.89% | |
65 Neutral | $2.08B | 18.98 | 15.06% | 2.64% | 7.69% | 91.86% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | $2.56B | -38.07 | -38.91% | ― | -13.39% | 88.25% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CSTM
Constellium
25.99
14.42
124.63%
AA
Alcoa
64.90
31.89
96.61%
MTRN
Materion
161.53
71.57
79.57%
CENX
Century Aluminum
53.02
33.65
173.72%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
132.12
63.30
91.98%
NGVT
Ingevity
69.60
21.97
46.13%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.