Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.26B
• Dividend Yield: 3.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 127.83K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.75
• Revenue Growth: 1.56%
• EPS Growth: -22.11%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,900
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 62
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 1.44
• Shares Outstanding: 16,154,375
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 84,834
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 127,829
• PEG Ratio: -4.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -44.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.64
• 1Y Price Target: $69.00
• Price Target Upside: -12.65% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $84.00 ▲(6.34%Upside)

Kaiser Aluminum's stock score is driven by positive earnings call guidance and strong technical indicators, suggesting potential growth. However, high valuation and challenges in free cash flow and certain revenue streams pose risks. Continuous monitoring of financial performance and market conditions is recommended.

Positive Factors

Product Expansion

The roll coat expansion is considered a significant positive catalyst, adding higher-margin ends and tabs for packaging applications.

Revenue Growth

The new Warrick roll coat line is set to open, supporting a 20%-25% year-over-year increase in conversion revenue.

Trade Policies

Kaiser is benefiting from trade policies, providing a favorable environment for domestic supply.

Negative Factors

Aerospace Segment

Aerospace revenue declined due to short-term disruptions in aircraft OEM supply chains.

Automotive Tariffs

Kaiser's automotive segment is heavily exposed to potential tariffs, adding uncertainty to its performance.

Price Target Reduction

The price target for Kaiser Aluminum has been reduced from $100 to $74, indicating a less optimistic outlook.

Kaiser Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation engages in manufacture and sale of semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products in the United States and internationally. The company offers rolled, extruded, and drawn aluminum products used for aerospace and defense, aluminum beverage and food packaging, automotive and general engineering products. The company's automotive extrusions include extruded aluminum products for structural components, crash management systems, anti-lock braking systems, and drawn tubes for drive shafts, as well as offers fabrication services, including sawing and cutting to length. Its packaging products consist of bare and coated 3000- and 5000-series alloy aluminum coil used for beverage and food packaging industry; and Its general engineering products comprise alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire, and standard extrusion shapes used in various applications, including the production of military vehicles, ordnances, semiconductor manufacturing cells, electronic devices, after-market motor sport parts, tooling plates, parts for machinery and equipment, bolts, screws, nails, and rivets. In addition, it offers rerolled, extruded, drawn, and cast billet aluminum products for industrial end uses. It sells its products directly to customers through sales personnel located in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and China, as well as through independent sales agents in other regions of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Foothill Ranch, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Kaiser Aluminum generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of semi-fabricated aluminum products. The company's main revenue streams include the sale of rolled aluminum products, such as sheet and plate, and extruded aluminum products, including rods, bars, and tubes. These products are sold directly to manufacturers in the aerospace, automotive, and industrial sectors, who use them to create finished goods. The company's earnings are bolstered by strategic partnerships with key customers and suppliers, enabling it to secure long-term contracts and maintain a steady demand for its products. Additionally, Kaiser Aluminum benefits from its strong operational efficiency and ability to innovate, which help in sustaining its competitive edge and profitability in the market.

Kaiser Aluminum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kaiser Aluminum demonstrates moderate financial performance. Improvements in gross profit margin and reduced debt-to-equity ratio signal better cost management and reduced leverage risk. However, challenges with free cash flow and slight decrease in net profit margin indicate areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Kaiser Aluminum has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The gross profit margin improved significantly in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) to 31.3% from 11.0% in the prior year, indicating better cost management. However, net profit margin decreased slightly to 1.4% from 1.5%. Revenue growth over the last year (from 2024 to TTM 2025) is moderate at 1.32%, showing some level of business expansion. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain relatively low but are improving, signaling a potential turnaround in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position, with a debt-to-equity ratio improving significantly to 0.03 in TTM 2025 from 1.61 in 2023, which reduces leverage risk. The equity ratio is stable at around 31.0%, indicating a consistent reliance on equity financing. Return on equity (ROE) is moderate at 5.8%, reflecting average returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates challenges with generating free cash flow, which is negative at -$47 million in TTM 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.37, showing solid cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting high capital expenditures that weigh on free cash performance. Free cash flow growth is negative, suggesting potential cash strain.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.06B	3.02B	3.09B	3.43B	2.62B	1.17B
	Gross Profit
284.30M	332.90M	332.10M	140.80M	182.40M	179.20M
	EBIT
103.20M	87.70M	95.80M	-73.80M	-66.80M	35.00M
	EBITDA
221.50M	223.60M	211.80M	131.50M	151.00M	136.60M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
43.80M	46.80M	47.20M	-29.60M	-18.50M	28.80M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
21.30M	18.40M	82.40M	57.40M	303.20M	780.30M
	Total Assets
2.44B	2.31B	2.27B	2.29B	2.42B	1.86B
	Total Debt
1.07B	1.08B	1.08B	1.07B	1.08B	863.70M
	Net Debt
1.05B	1.06B	996.70M	1.02B	773.90M	83.40M
	Total Liabilities
1.68B	1.65B	1.62B	1.66B	1.73B	1.13B
	Stockholders Equity
756.80M	668.00M	652.20M	631.20M	692.50M	732.40M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-28.20M	-13.70M	68.70M	-205.60M	21.40M	155.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
160.80M	167.10M	211.90M	-63.10M	79.40M	206.90M
	Investing Cash Flow
-182.90M	-174.60M	-128.20M	-125.80M	-665.80M	26.90M
	Financing Cash Flow
-56.50M	-55.30M	-54.30M	-56.80M	109.10M	281.90M

Kaiser Aluminum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 78.99
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KALU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 78.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.49, above the 50-day MA of 64.89, and above the 200-day MA of 69.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.91 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KALU.

Kaiser Aluminum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AA	72 Outperform	$7.25B	8.29	17.53%	1.43%	21.56%	―
CENX	70 Outperform	$1.82B	17.22	18.03%	―	11.42%	-49.21%
CSTM	69 Neutral	$1.85B	28.63	7.93%	―	-2.29%	-48.13%
KALU	67 Neutral	$1.26B	29.23	6.16%	3.94%	1.56%	-22.11%
NEXA	56 Neutral	$639.68M	―	-16.64%	―	12.30%	42.72%
RDUS	53 Neutral	$835.34M	―	-41.03%	2.53%	-2.75%	-339.59%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.02B	-1.19	-21.37%	3.64%	2.88%	-30.57%

Kaiser Aluminum Corporate Events

Kaiser Aluminum Announces Leadership Changes for 2025

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced the retirement of Jack A. Hockema as Executive Chair, effective January 1, 2025, with CEO Keith A. Harvey appointed as Chairman of the Board. Kimberly T. Glas has been appointed as a new director, filling the vacancy left by Mr. Hockema. Ms. Glas brings over 20 years of experience in government policy development and advocacy, particularly with labor unions, and will serve on the Board’s audit and sustainability committees. This leadership transition is expected to continue the company’s legacy of operational excellence and enhance stakeholder value.