Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU)
NASDAQ:KALU
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Kaiser Aluminum
(NASDAQ:KALU)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$176.00
▲(18.64% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:04/24/26
The score is driven by strong valuation and a positive, guidance-raising earnings outlook, supported by a solid uptrend in the stock. Offsetting these, the financial profile remains constrained by weak historical free-cash-flow conversion and above-average balance-sheet leverage.
Positive Factors
End-market demand recovery
Guidance-driven demand recovery across aerospace, packaging and general engineering signals structurally stronger end-market mix. Higher-spec aerospace and packaging volumes tend to carry better conversion margins, supporting more durable revenue quality and less reliance on commodity aluminum spreads.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Above-average balance-sheet leverage increases vulnerability to cyclical downturns and commodity shocks. Higher leverage constrains capital allocation choices, raises interest burden risk, and means operational setbacks or metal-price reversals could more quickly pressure coverage metrics.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
End-market demand recovery
Guidance-driven demand recovery across aerospace, packaging and general engineering signals structurally stronger end-market mix. Higher-spec aerospace and packaging volumes tend to carry better conversion margins, supporting more durable revenue quality and less reliance on commodity aluminum spreads.
Read all positive factors
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.91B
Dividend Yield2.64%
Average Volume (3M)222.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.8
Beta (1Y)1.70
Revenue Growth20.84%
EPS Growth247.80%
CountryUS
Employees3,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.74
Shares Outstanding16,340,607
10 Day Avg. Volume201,004
30 Day Avg. Volume222,508
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)2.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio-72.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$155.67Price Target Upside4.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)8.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.08B
Kaiser Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation engages in manufacture and sale of semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products in the United States and internationally. The company offers rolled, extruded, and drawn aluminum products used for aerospace and defen...
How the Company Makes Money
Kaiser Aluminum primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling value-added, semi-fabricated aluminum products to customers across its served end markets. Revenue is generated from contracted and spot sales of products such as aerospace and ind...
Kaiser Aluminum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflects a strong and improving operational performance with record EBITDA, material revenue and EPS gains, improved leverage, solid free cash flow, and upgraded full-year guidance. Key end markets (aerospace, packaging, general engineering) exhibit clear demand recovery and mix improvement at Warrick supports higher conversion pricing. Near-term challenges include automotive weakness, the decision to run the new coating line at ~80% while optimizing quality, external converter execution issues, and reliance on metal lag/scrap spread tailwinds that could reverse if metal prices decline. On balance, positives materially outweigh the negatives with management highlighting sustained execution and balance-sheet strength.Positive Updates
Record EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA of $129 million in Q1 2026, up $55 million year-over-year; Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 31.8% of conversion revenue, a 1,200 basis-point improvement versus prior year; company reported another record for EBITDA and EBITDA margins.
Negative Updates
Automotive Weakness
Automotive conversion revenue of $29 million decreased ~8% year-over-year on an 8% decline in shipments; company expects automotive shipments and conversion revenue to be flat to down up to 5% for the full year due to high consumer borrowing costs and tariff uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA of $129 million in Q1 2026, up $55 million year-over-year; Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 31.8% of conversion revenue, a 1,200 basis-point improvement versus prior year; company reported another record for EBITDA and EBITDA margins.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised full-year guidance, expecting conversion revenue to increase 10%–15% and EBITDA to grow 20%–30% year‑over‑year; by end market it sees aerospace & high‑strength shipments up 15%–20% (conversion revenue +10%–15%), packaging shipments +10%–15% (conversion revenue +20%–25%), general engineering shipments and conversion revenue each +5%–10%, and automotive shipments and conversion revenue flat to down 5%. Q1 results included conversion revenue of $404M, adjusted EBITDA of $129M (31.8% of conversion revenue, +1,200 bps YoY) and a ~$36M quarter metal‑lag gain (with $15M of the $34M operating‑cost improvement attributed to metal lag); Q1 free cash flow was $69M. For 2026 they expect full‑year free cash flow of $140M–$150M, capex of $120M–$130M (Q1 capex $19M), a mid‑20% effective tax rate (Q1 = 24%), cash tax payments of $10M–$13M, a quarterly dividend of $0.77/share, end‑Q1 liquidity of ~$596M (≈$30M cash and $566M revolver availability), net leverage improved to 2.8x (target 2.0x–2.5x), and fixed annual senior notes interest of $54M with no maturities until 2030.Kaiser Aluminum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.70B | 3.37B | 3.02B | 3.09B | 3.43B | 2.62B |
| Gross Profit | 379.10M | 319.90M | 332.90M | 332.10M | 247.70M | 273.90M |
| EBITDA | 380.80M | 322.60M | 223.60M | 211.80M | 117.30M | 117.00M |
| Net Income | 153.40M | 112.50M | 46.80M | 47.20M | -29.60M | -18.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.79B | 2.56B | 2.31B | 2.27B | 2.29B | 2.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 30.00M | 7.00M | 18.40M | 82.40M | 57.40M | 303.20M |
| Total Debt | 1.06B | 1.12B | 1.09B | 1.08B | 1.09B | 1.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.91B | 1.74B | 1.65B | 1.62B | 1.66B | 1.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 877.30M | 826.10M | 668.00M | 652.20M | 631.20M | 692.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 24.20M | -25.50M | -13.70M | 68.70M | -205.60M | 21.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 142.30M | 111.40M | 167.10M | 211.90M | -63.10M | 79.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -59.00M | -77.80M | -174.60M | -128.20M | -125.80M | -665.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -74.60M | -44.60M | -55.30M | -54.30M | -56.80M | 109.10M |
Kaiser Aluminum Technical Analysis
Positive
148.35
Price Trends
129.34
Positive
122.49
Positive
101.71
Positive
Market Momentum
5.91
Negative
69.37
Neutral
82.93
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KALU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 148.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 128.94, above the 50-day MA of 129.34, and above the 200-day MA of 101.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KALU.
Kaiser Aluminum Risk Analysis
Kaiser Aluminum disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kaiser Aluminum reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We rely on third parties to provide certain services that are critical to our operation. Q4, 2025
Kaiser Aluminum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $17.42B | 10.29 | 16.13% | 0.75% | 1.52% | 17.97% | |
67 Neutral | $3.87B | 34.48 | 8.14% | 0.43% | 6.02% | 1154.14% | |
64 Neutral | $4.28B | 9.65 | 29.48% | ― | 15.22% | 508.56% | |
64 Neutral | $2.91B | 7.83 | 18.68% | 2.64% | 20.84% | 247.80% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $6.01B | 88.30 | 5.54% | ― | 13.85% | -87.79% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
174.94
112.04
178.14%
AA
Alcoa
67.36
42.45
170.41%
MTRN
Materion
181.55
98.74
119.25%
CENX
Century Aluminum
61.63
44.81
266.41%
CSTM
Constellium
31.19
21.60
225.23%
MTAL
Metals Acquisition Corp. II Class A
10.05
-0.12
-1.18%
Kaiser Aluminum Corporate Events
Dividends
Kaiser Aluminum Declares Quarterly Dividend, Signals Ongoing Confidence
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation said its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.77 per share on its common stock, reinforcing its practice of returning capital to shareholders. The payout is scheduled for May 15, 2026 to inv...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.