Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.99B
• Dividend Yield: 2.64%
• Average Volume (3M): 193.08K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.63
• Revenue Growth: 7.69%
• EPS Growth: 91.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,900
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 1.86
• Shares Outstanding: 16,206,255
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 171,130
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 193,078
• PEG Ratio: -17.79
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: -82.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.05
• 1Y Price Target: $112.50
• Price Target Upside: -11.29% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $139.00 ▲(9.60% Upside)

The score is driven mainly by improving fundamentals and a constructive earnings outlook (raised EBITDA outlook and stronger margins), supported by a strong price uptrend. It is held back by weak free cash flow trends, meaningful leverage, and overbought technical signals, with valuation only moderately attractive.

Positive Factors

High and Improving EBITDA Margins

Sustained 20%+ EBITDA margins and a raised full-year EBITDA outlook indicate durable operating leverage and pricing power. High margins support internal reinvestment and buffer commodity swings, enhancing long-term profitability and funding for growth or shareholder returns.

Strategic Capacity Expansions On Track

On-schedule, on-budget capacity additions (Trentwood Phase 7; Warrick coating line) expand higher-margin plate and packaging capabilities. These structural investments improve product mix, support revenue diversification, and increase long-term utilization and margin potential as demand normalizes.

Improved Liquidity and Proactive Refinancing

A $577M liquidity buffer and improving net debt leverage demonstrate stronger financial flexibility. Combined with recent note issuance and credit amendments, management is proactively extending maturities and lowering near-term refinancing risk, preserving capacity to fund capex and dividends.

Negative Factors

Weak Free Cash Flow Generation

Severely depressed free cash flow despite accounting profits limits the company's ability to self-fund capex, reduce leverage, or sustain dividends without external financing. Persistently weak FCF raises refinancing and liquidity risk over the medium term.

Elevated Balance Sheet Leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio above 1.3 signals material leverage that increases interest expense sensitivity and reduces strategic optionality. In a cyclical metals end market, elevated leverage heightens vulnerability to demand downturns and constrains capital allocation flexibility.

Aerospace Segment Exposure and Demand Weakness

Significant aerospace revenue and shipment declines highlight exposure to OEM destocking and outage-driven disruption. Given aerospace cyclicality and long lead-times, prolonged reduced shipments can depress utilization, margins and free cash flow for multiple quarters.

Kaiser Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation engages in manufacture and sale of semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products in the United States and internationally. The company offers rolled, extruded, and drawn aluminum products used for aerospace and defense, aluminum beverage and food packaging, automotive and general engineering products. The company's automotive extrusions include extruded aluminum products for structural components, crash management systems, anti-lock braking systems, and drawn tubes for drive shafts, as well as offers fabrication services, including sawing and cutting to length. Its packaging products consist of bare and coated 3000- and 5000-series alloy aluminum coil used for beverage and food packaging industry; and Its general engineering products comprise alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire, and standard extrusion shapes used in various applications, including the production of military vehicles, ordnances, semiconductor manufacturing cells, electronic devices, after-market motor sport parts, tooling plates, parts for machinery and equipment, bolts, screws, nails, and rivets. In addition, it offers rerolled, extruded, drawn, and cast billet aluminum products for industrial end uses. It sells its products directly to customers through sales personnel located in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and China, as well as through independent sales agents in other regions of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Foothill Ranch, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Kaiser Aluminum generates revenue primarily through the sale of its aluminum products, which are utilized in various sectors including aerospace, automotive, and industrial applications. The company’s revenue model is based on long-term contracts and spot sales, allowing it to maintain a steady income stream from both repeat customers and new business. Key revenue streams include the production of aluminum extrusions, plates, and fabricated products that cater to specific customer requirements. Additionally, the company has established significant partnerships with major players in the aerospace and automotive industries, which contributes to its earnings stability. The demand for lightweight and durable materials in these sectors further enhances Kaiser Aluminum's profitability, especially as industries shift toward more sustainable solutions.

Kaiser Aluminum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kaiser Aluminum shows signs of recovery with improved revenue and profitability metrics. However, high leverage and negative free cash flow growth present potential risks. The company needs to focus on enhancing operational efficiency and managing its debt levels to ensure long-term financial health.

Income Statement

Kaiser Aluminum shows a positive revenue growth rate of 3.08% in the TTM, indicating a recovery from previous declines. The gross profit margin is stable at 10.50%, and the net profit margin has improved to 2.85%, reflecting better profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins, at 5.14% and 8.92% respectively, suggest room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.32, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity has improved to 12.16%, showing better utilization of equity. The equity ratio stands at 31.10%, suggesting a moderate level of financial stability.

Cash Flow

Kaiser Aluminum's cash flow situation is challenging, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -75.96%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.35, indicating some cash generation from operations, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.21B	3.02B	3.09B	3.43B	2.62B	1.17B
Gross Profit	336.90M	332.90M	332.10M	247.70M	273.90M	231.40M
EBITDA	286.30M	223.60M	211.80M	117.30M	117.00M	136.60M
Net Income	91.40M	46.80M	47.20M	-29.60M	-18.50M	28.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.59B	2.31B	2.27B	2.29B	2.42B	1.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.20M	18.40M	82.40M	57.40M	303.20M	780.30M
Total Debt	1.07B	1.09B	1.08B	1.09B	1.09B	876.20M
Total Liabilities	1.79B	1.65B	1.62B	1.66B	1.73B	1.13B
Stockholders Equity	806.10M	668.00M	652.20M	631.20M	692.50M	732.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.00M	-13.70M	68.70M	-205.60M	21.40M	155.00M
Operating Cash Flow	175.40M	167.10M	211.90M	-63.10M	79.40M	206.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-145.70M	-174.60M	-128.20M	-125.80M	-665.80M	26.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-56.70M	-55.30M	-54.30M	-56.80M	109.10M	281.90M

Kaiser Aluminum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 126.82
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KALU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 126.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 118.12, above the 50-day MA of 105.16, and above the 200-day MA of 81.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.35 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KALU.

Kaiser Aluminum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AA	70 Outperform	$16.49B	14.46	19.77%	0.75%	20.08%	―
KALU	69 Neutral	$1.99B	22.23	12.41%	2.64%	7.69%	91.86%
MTRN	69 Neutral	$2.86B	150.52	2.08%	0.43%	3.93%	-73.94%
CSTM	62 Neutral	$2.87B	27.24	12.22%	―	8.48%	12.10%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CENX	56 Neutral	$4.26B	58.87	12.22%	―	20.15%	-72.89%

Kaiser Aluminum Corporate Events

Kaiser Aluminum Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders

On January 13, 2026, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced that its board of directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.77 per share on its common stock, payable on February 13, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 23, 2026. The dividend declaration underscores the company’s ongoing return-of-capital policy and signals continued confidence by the board in Kaiser Aluminum’s financial position and cash-generation capabilities, which is notable for investors tracking income from specialty metals producers.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Hold with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.

Kaiser Aluminum Announces Executive Sales and Marketing Transition

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation has implemented a planned leadership transition in its sales and marketing organization, appointing Hugh (Jack) J. Barger, III as Executive Vice President – Sales and Marketing effective January 1, 2026, as part of its succession planning for the anticipated retirement of former Executive Vice President – Sales and Marketing, Blain A. Tiffany. As of January 1, 2026, Tiffany moved into the role of Advisor to the Chief Executive Officer under a transition agreement signed on January 7, 2026, remaining an employee through December 31, 2026 while providing transition services, retaining his current salary, incentive compensation targets, and outstanding equity awards, continuing to receive customary benefits, and exiting the company’s key employee severance plan, signaling a structured and continuity-focused handover for the company’s commercial leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Buy with a $127.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.

Kaiser Aluminum Strengthens Leadership with New Executive Appointments

On December 18, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum announced that Hugh (Jack) J. Barger, III will become Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing effective January 1, 2026, as part of a planned succession tied to the anticipated retirement of current EVP Blain A. Tiffany; Barger, who joined the company in June 2025 as Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, brings more than 25 years of metals industry experience, including senior leadership roles at Central Steel & Wire and A.M. Castle & Company. Separately, on December 16, 2025, the company appointed Thomas H. Robb as Executive Vice President of Manufacturing, elevating him from senior manufacturing and finance roles he has held since rejoining Kaiser in August 2024, a move that underscores the company’s focus on experienced leadership to steer its commercial and manufacturing operations, including the Warrick rolling mill in Indiana, as it advances major projects such as the start-up of a new coating line.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Buy with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.

Kaiser Aluminum Announces Leadership Change in Manufacturing

On November 14, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced that Jason D. Walsh, the Executive Vice President – Manufacturing, will take a leave of absence for health reasons starting November 17, 2025. Thomas H. Robb has been appointed as the new Senior Vice President – Manufacturing, effective immediately. Robb, who joined the company in August 2024, has a robust background in finance and manufacturing, making him a suitable successor to Walsh. This leadership change is expected to maintain the company’s operational stability and strategic direction, given Robb’s extensive experience in the aluminum and metals industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Hold with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.

Kaiser Aluminum Closes $500M Senior Notes Offering

On November 5, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced the successful closure of its $500 million senior notes offering, with the notes due in 2034 and carrying an interest rate of 5.875% per annum. The proceeds from this offering are intended to redeem the company’s existing 4.625% senior notes due in 2028, potentially impacting the company’s financial structure and stakeholder interests by optimizing its debt profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Hold with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.

Kaiser Aluminum Prices $500M Senior Notes Offering

On October 27, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum announced the pricing of $500 million in senior notes due 2034, with a 5.875% interest rate, in a private transaction. The proceeds will be used to redeem the company’s existing 4.625% senior notes due 2028, with the completion of the offering expected on November 5, 2025, subject to customary conditions. This financial maneuver is aimed at optimizing the company’s debt structure and potentially enhancing its financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Buy with a $107.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.

Kaiser Aluminum Announces $500M Senior Notes Offering

On October 27, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced its plan to offer $500 million in senior notes due 2034 through a private transaction exempt from the Securities Act of 1933 registration requirements. The proceeds, along with borrowings under its revolving credit facility or cash on hand, are intended to redeem all outstanding amounts of its 4.625% senior notes due 2028. The offering’s completion is subject to market conditions, and the company has provided a conditional notice to redeem the 2028 notes on November 6, 2025, contingent on the successful issuance of the new debt securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Buy with a $107.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.

Kaiser Aluminum Amends Credit Agreement with Wells Fargo

On October 14, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation and its subsidiaries amended their Credit Agreement with Wells Fargo, extending the maturity date and modifying financial terms. This amendment allows for increased borrowing flexibility and potential debt restructuring, impacting the company’s financial strategy and operational capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Buy with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.

Kaiser Aluminum Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend

On October 14, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.77 per share, payable on November 14, 2025, to shareholders recorded by October 24, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may impact its financial flexibility and future dividend decisions, considering various economic and industry factors.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Buy with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.