Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.04B
• Dividend Yield: 2.64%
• Average Volume (3M): 221.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.60
• Revenue Growth: 7.69%
• EPS Growth: 91.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,900
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 1.53
• Shares Outstanding: 16,210,443
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 285,063
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 221,609
• PEG Ratio: 0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.55
• P/FCF Ratio: -72.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.78
• 1Y Price Target: $122.00
• Price Target Upside: -3.05% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.99
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.93B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $137.00 ▲(8.87% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and a stronger balance-sheet profile, tempered by weak recent free-cash-flow conversion. Support comes from constructive technicals and a positive 2026 outlook on the earnings call, while valuation appears fair with a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Margin Expansion / Record EBITDA

Sustained margin expansion and record adjusted EBITDA reflect successful operational improvements and higher-value product mix. Higher conversion margins (driven by mix and efficiency) provide a more durable earnings base less reliant on metal-price swings, supporting multi-quarter profit resiliency.

Stronger Balance Sheet / Refinancing

A material reduction in reported leverage and increased equity supports financial flexibility. Combined with refinancing actions and an extended revolver, the company is better positioned to fund strategic capex, manage cyclicality, and return capital without immediate refinancing stress over the next several quarters.

Higher-value Product Mix (Coating Line)

Commissioning of the West coating line and higher coated volumes shifts sales toward value-added products with higher conversion margins. This structural mix improvement supports steadier margin expansion and less exposure to commodity aluminum pricing across the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weak Free Cash Flow / Cash Conversion

Negative free cash flow despite improved accounting earnings highlights a cash conversion problem. Persistent FCF weakness limits internal funding for capex, working capital needs, and shareholder returns, increasing reliance on external liquidity over the next several quarters.

Working-capital Sensitivity to Metal Prices

Large working-capital swings from metal price moves create recurring liquidity pressure and timing mismatches between payables and receivables. This structural exposure can materially erode cash balances and force use of revolver capacity when metal prices move, elevating financing risk.

End-market & Shipment Volatility

Significant shipment declines in aerospace and planned retooling/outages in automotive highlight sensitivity to cyclic end markets and execution timing. This creates durable revenue volatility and execution risk as volumes and margins can swing with OEM cycles and project schedules.

Kaiser Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation engages in manufacture and sale of semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products in the United States and internationally. The company offers rolled, extruded, and drawn aluminum products used for aerospace and defense, aluminum beverage and food packaging, automotive and general engineering products. The company's automotive extrusions include extruded aluminum products for structural components, crash management systems, anti-lock braking systems, and drawn tubes for drive shafts, as well as offers fabrication services, including sawing and cutting to length. Its packaging products consist of bare and coated 3000- and 5000-series alloy aluminum coil used for beverage and food packaging industry; and Its general engineering products comprise alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire, and standard extrusion shapes used in various applications, including the production of military vehicles, ordnances, semiconductor manufacturing cells, electronic devices, after-market motor sport parts, tooling plates, parts for machinery and equipment, bolts, screws, nails, and rivets. In addition, it offers rerolled, extruded, drawn, and cast billet aluminum products for industrial end uses. It sells its products directly to customers through sales personnel located in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and China, as well as through independent sales agents in other regions of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Foothill Ranch, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Kaiser Aluminum generates revenue primarily through the sale of its aluminum products, which are utilized in various sectors including aerospace, automotive, and industrial applications. The company’s revenue model is based on long-term contracts and spot sales, allowing it to maintain a steady income stream from both repeat customers and new business. Key revenue streams include the production of aluminum extrusions, plates, and fabricated products that cater to specific customer requirements. Additionally, the company has established significant partnerships with major players in the aerospace and automotive industries, which contributes to its earnings stability. The demand for lightweight and durable materials in these sectors further enhances Kaiser Aluminum's profitability, especially as industries shift toward more sustainable solutions.

Kaiser Aluminum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Earnings and leverage improved meaningfully in 2025 (higher net income, better operating margins, and much lower reported debt-to-equity), but cash-flow quality is a clear weakness: operating cash flow has trended down and free cash flow was negative in 2025 (and 2024), creating a mismatch between accounting profits and cash generation.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile but improved recently, with 2025 revenue up ~5% after modest declines in 2023–2024. Profitability rebounded meaningfully: net income rose to $112.5M in 2025 from ~$47M in 2023–2024, and operating profitability improved (EBIT margin ~5.7% in 2025 vs ~3.3–3.5% in 2023–2024). That said, margins remain relatively thin (net margin ~3.3% in 2025), and the company has demonstrated earnings sensitivity across cycles (losses in 2021–2022).

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet metrics show a dramatic improvement in leverage in 2025, with very low debt relative to equity (~0.03 debt-to-equity) versus high leverage in 2021–2024 (~1.58–1.73). Equity also increased to ~$826M in 2025 from ~$668M in 2024, supporting stronger financial flexibility. A key watch-out is the sharp year-over-year shift in reported total debt (from ~$1.09B in 2024 to ~$22M in 2025), which suggests a major capital structure change and makes comparability across years less stable, even though current leverage and returns (ROE ~13.6% in 2025) look healthier.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed. Operating cash flow remained positive in 2025 ($111M) but declined from 2024 ($167M) and 2023 ($212M). Free cash flow turned negative again in 2025 (-$25.5M) and was also negative in 2024, indicating reinvestment or working-capital pressure is consuming cash despite higher earnings; free cash flow was strongly positive in 2020 and 2023, highlighting volatility. Cash conversion versus earnings is currently weak, with free cash flow negative relative to net income in 2024–2025.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.37B	3.02B	3.09B	3.43B	2.62B
Gross Profit	319.90M	332.90M	332.10M	247.70M	273.90M
EBITDA	322.60M	223.60M	211.80M	117.30M	117.00M
Net Income	112.50M	46.80M	47.20M	-29.60M	-18.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.56B	2.31B	2.27B	2.29B	2.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.00M	18.40M	82.40M	57.40M	303.20M
Total Debt	1.12B	1.09B	1.08B	1.09B	1.09B
Total Liabilities	1.74B	1.65B	1.62B	1.66B	1.73B
Stockholders Equity	826.10M	668.00M	652.20M	631.20M	692.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-25.50M	-13.70M	68.70M	-205.60M	21.40M
Operating Cash Flow	111.40M	167.10M	211.90M	-63.10M	79.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-77.80M	-174.60M	-128.20M	-125.80M	-665.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-44.60M	-55.30M	-54.30M	-56.80M	109.10M

Kaiser Aluminum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 125.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KALU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 125.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 134.86, below the 50-day MA of 127.91, and above the 200-day MA of 93.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KALU.

Kaiser Aluminum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AA	75 Outperform	$15.93B	12.08	20.75%	0.75%	20.08%	―
MTRN	67 Neutral	$3.12B	34.48	8.26%	0.43%	3.93%	-73.94%
CSTM	66 Neutral	$3.56B	9.64	32.93%	―	8.48%	12.10%
KALU	65 Neutral	$2.04B	16.50	15.06%	2.64%	7.69%	91.86%
CENX	65 Neutral	$5.33B	88.30	5.57%	―	20.15%	-72.89%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Kaiser Aluminum Corporate Events

Kaiser Aluminum Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders

On January 13, 2026, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced that its board of directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.77 per share on its common stock, payable on February 13, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 23, 2026. The dividend declaration underscores the company’s ongoing return-of-capital policy and signals continued confidence by the board in Kaiser Aluminum’s financial position and cash-generation capabilities, which is notable for investors tracking income from specialty metals producers.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Hold with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.

Kaiser Aluminum Announces Executive Sales and Marketing Transition

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation has implemented a planned leadership transition in its sales and marketing organization, appointing Hugh (Jack) J. Barger, III as Executive Vice President – Sales and Marketing effective January 1, 2026, as part of its succession planning for the anticipated retirement of former Executive Vice President – Sales and Marketing, Blain A. Tiffany. As of January 1, 2026, Tiffany moved into the role of Advisor to the Chief Executive Officer under a transition agreement signed on January 7, 2026, remaining an employee through December 31, 2026 while providing transition services, retaining his current salary, incentive compensation targets, and outstanding equity awards, continuing to receive customary benefits, and exiting the company’s key employee severance plan, signaling a structured and continuity-focused handover for the company’s commercial leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Buy with a $127.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.

Kaiser Aluminum Strengthens Leadership with New Executive Appointments

On December 18, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum announced that Hugh (Jack) J. Barger, III will become Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing effective January 1, 2026, as part of a planned succession tied to the anticipated retirement of current EVP Blain A. Tiffany; Barger, who joined the company in June 2025 as Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, brings more than 25 years of metals industry experience, including senior leadership roles at Central Steel & Wire and A.M. Castle & Company. Separately, on December 16, 2025, the company appointed Thomas H. Robb as Executive Vice President of Manufacturing, elevating him from senior manufacturing and finance roles he has held since rejoining Kaiser in August 2024, a move that underscores the company’s focus on experienced leadership to steer its commercial and manufacturing operations, including the Warrick rolling mill in Indiana, as it advances major projects such as the start-up of a new coating line.

The most recent analyst rating on (KALU) stock is a Buy with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaiser Aluminum stock, see the KALU Stock Forecast page.