Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.76B
• Dividend Yield: 2.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 157.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.71
• Revenue Growth: 7.69%
• EPS Growth: 91.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,900
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 1.86
• Shares Outstanding: 16,206,255
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 202,477
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 157,712
• PEG Ratio: -17.79
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: -82.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.73
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.17
• 1Y Price Target: $106.50
• Price Target Upside: 33.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $115.00 ▲(44.20% Upside)

Kaiser Aluminum's overall stock score is driven by strong technical momentum and positive earnings call insights, despite financial performance risks related to leverage and cash flow. The company's strategic investments and recent corporate events further support a favorable outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial stability.

Strategic Investments

Timely and budgeted strategic investments enhance production capacity, positioning the company for future growth and competitive advantage.

Leadership Stability

Leadership changes with experienced personnel ensure continuity in strategic direction and operational stability, supporting long-term objectives.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can increase financial risk and limit flexibility, impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow constrains the company's ability to fund operations and investments, potentially affecting long-term sustainability.

Aerospace Revenue Decline

Decline in aerospace revenue due to shipment decreases can impact overall profitability and market position in a key sector.

Kaiser Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) is a leading manufacturer of aluminum products, primarily serving the aerospace, automotive, and industrial markets. The company specializes in producing high-quality aluminum extrusions, plate, and sheet products, offering tailored solutions to meet the specific needs of its diverse customer base. With a strong focus on innovation and sustainability, Kaiser Aluminum operates multiple manufacturing facilities across the United States and is committed to providing exceptional service and support to its clients.

How the Company Makes Money

Kaiser Aluminum generates revenue primarily through the sale of its aluminum products, which are utilized in various sectors including aerospace, automotive, and industrial applications. The company’s revenue model is based on long-term contracts and spot sales, allowing it to maintain a steady income stream from both repeat customers and new business. Key revenue streams include the production of aluminum extrusions, plates, and fabricated products that cater to specific customer requirements. Additionally, the company has established significant partnerships with major players in the aerospace and automotive industries, which contributes to its earnings stability. The demand for lightweight and durable materials in these sectors further enhances Kaiser Aluminum's profitability, especially as industries shift toward more sustainable solutions.

Kaiser Aluminum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kaiser Aluminum shows positive revenue growth and improved profitability metrics, but high leverage and negative free cash flow growth present potential risks. Operational efficiency and debt management need improvement.

Income Statement

Kaiser Aluminum shows a positive revenue growth rate of 3.08% in the TTM, indicating a recovery from previous declines. The gross profit margin is stable at 10.50%, and the net profit margin has improved to 2.85%, reflecting better profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins, at 5.14% and 8.92% respectively, suggest room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.32, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity has improved to 12.16%, showing better utilization of equity. The equity ratio stands at 31.10%, suggesting a moderate level of financial stability.

Cash Flow

Kaiser Aluminum's cash flow situation is challenging, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -75.96%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.35, indicating some cash generation from operations, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.21B	3.02B	3.09B	3.43B	2.62B	1.17B
Gross Profit	336.90M	332.90M	332.10M	247.70M	273.90M	231.40M
EBITDA	286.30M	223.60M	211.80M	117.30M	117.00M	136.60M
Net Income	91.40M	46.80M	47.20M	-29.60M	-18.50M	28.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.59B	2.31B	2.27B	2.29B	2.42B	1.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.20M	18.40M	82.40M	57.40M	303.20M	780.30M
Total Debt	1.07B	1.09B	1.08B	1.09B	1.09B	876.20M
Total Liabilities	1.79B	1.65B	1.62B	1.66B	1.73B	1.13B
Stockholders Equity	806.10M	668.00M	652.20M	631.20M	692.50M	732.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.00M	-13.70M	68.70M	-205.60M	21.40M	155.00M
Operating Cash Flow	175.40M	167.10M	211.90M	-63.10M	79.40M	206.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-145.70M	-174.60M	-128.20M	-125.80M	-665.80M	26.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-56.70M	-55.30M	-54.30M	-56.80M	109.10M	281.90M

Kaiser Aluminum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 79.75
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KALU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 79.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.24, below the 50-day MA of 90.93, and above the 200-day MA of 76.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.73 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.86 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KALU.

Kaiser Aluminum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AA	76 Outperform	$11.95B	10.48	19.77%	0.87%	20.08%	―
KALU	75 Outperform	$1.76B	19.65	12.41%	2.83%	7.69%	91.86%
MTAL	71 Outperform	―	―	―	―	―	―
MTRN	69 Neutral	$2.65B	139.46	2.08%	0.43%	3.93%	-73.94%
CSTM	64 Neutral	$2.53B	22.83	12.22%	―	8.48%	12.10%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CENX	61 Neutral	$2.95B	39.52	12.22%	―	20.15%	-72.89%

Kaiser Aluminum Corporate Events

Kaiser Aluminum Announces Leadership Change in Manufacturing

On November 14, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced that Jason D. Walsh, the Executive Vice President – Manufacturing, will take a leave of absence for health reasons starting November 17, 2025. Thomas H. Robb has been appointed as the new Senior Vice President – Manufacturing, effective immediately. Robb, who joined the company in August 2024, has a robust background in finance and manufacturing, making him a suitable successor to Walsh. This leadership change is expected to maintain the company’s operational stability and strategic direction, given Robb’s extensive experience in the aluminum and metals industry.

Kaiser Aluminum Closes $500M Senior Notes Offering

On November 5, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced the successful closure of its $500 million senior notes offering, with the notes due in 2034 and carrying an interest rate of 5.875% per annum. The proceeds from this offering are intended to redeem the company’s existing 4.625% senior notes due in 2028, potentially impacting the company’s financial structure and stakeholder interests by optimizing its debt profile.

Kaiser Aluminum Prices $500M Senior Notes Offering

On October 27, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum announced the pricing of $500 million in senior notes due 2034, with a 5.875% interest rate, in a private transaction. The proceeds will be used to redeem the company’s existing 4.625% senior notes due 2028, with the completion of the offering expected on November 5, 2025, subject to customary conditions. This financial maneuver is aimed at optimizing the company’s debt structure and potentially enhancing its financial flexibility.

Kaiser Aluminum Announces $500M Senior Notes Offering

On October 27, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced its plan to offer $500 million in senior notes due 2034 through a private transaction exempt from the Securities Act of 1933 registration requirements. The proceeds, along with borrowings under its revolving credit facility or cash on hand, are intended to redeem all outstanding amounts of its 4.625% senior notes due 2028. The offering’s completion is subject to market conditions, and the company has provided a conditional notice to redeem the 2028 notes on November 6, 2025, contingent on the successful issuance of the new debt securities.

Kaiser Aluminum Amends Credit Agreement with Wells Fargo

On October 14, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation and its subsidiaries amended their Credit Agreement with Wells Fargo, extending the maturity date and modifying financial terms. This amendment allows for increased borrowing flexibility and potential debt restructuring, impacting the company’s financial strategy and operational capacity.

Kaiser Aluminum Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend

On October 14, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.77 per share, payable on November 14, 2025, to shareholders recorded by October 24, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may impact its financial flexibility and future dividend decisions, considering various economic and industry factors.

Kaiser Aluminum Appoints James Hoffman as Director

On September 18, 2025, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced the appointment of James D. Hoffman as an independent director on its Board. Hoffman, with over 43 years of experience in the metals distribution and service center industries, previously served as CEO of Reliance, Inc. His extensive industry knowledge and leadership expertise are expected to significantly contribute to Kaiser’s strategic growth plans and long-term objectives.