MAC Copper (MTAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.00B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 906.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.32
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 506
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 82,538,810
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,088,173
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 906,632
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.43
• 1Y Price Target: $12.73
• Price Target Upside: 4.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $13.50 ▲(11.20% Upside)

MAC Copper's overall stock score reflects strong operational improvements and positive earnings call highlights, including increased production and cash flow. However, challenges with profitability and valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

Several key shareholders, who collectively own about 20% of the shares outstanding, have confirmed that they will vote in favor of the acquisition.

Financial Performance

During the quarter, MAC paid off the Mezz facility and upsized its revolving credit facility to US$125m, resulting in a ~30% reduction in debt costs.

Operational Efficiency

MTAL has been focused on improving operations by increasing throughput, reducing dilution, and reducing costs by driving productivity.

Negative Factors

Bid Valuation

While a bump or alternative bid is possible, it is not expected to be a material increase to the approximately 32% premium offered by Harmony.

Stock Downgrade

The stock is downgraded to Market Perform due to insufficient upside to the target price.

MAC Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MAC Copper Ltd does not have significant operations. It intends to effect a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses. The company intends to focus its search on metals and mining businesses. Metals Acquisition Corp was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Fort Worth, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

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MAC Copper Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MAC Copper has shown strong revenue growth and operational improvements, evidenced by a positive EBIT and improved cash flows. However, profitability remains a challenge with a negative net profit margin. The balance sheet is solid, but ongoing losses impact return on equity.

Income Statement

MAC Copper has shown significant revenue growth, with a 114.4% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 34.4% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -24.0% due to high expenses, although it has improved from -90.9% in 2023. The EBIT margin turned positive at 22.6%, showing operational improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company has a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.73, indicating a balanced leverage position. The return on equity is negative due to net losses, but the equity ratio is strong at 40.3%, reflecting a solid equity base compared to total assets.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow improved significantly to $116.7 million in 2024, reflecting better cash generation from operations. Free cash flow turned positive at $56.3 million, indicating improved liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting efficient cash management despite net losses.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	340.74M	159.00M	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	117.34M	17.83M	-2.12M	0.00
EBITDA	59.02M	-72.23M	-4.74M	10.81M
Net Income	-81.69M	-144.55M	-13.28M	10.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.41B	1.31B	270.19M	266.64M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	171.90M	32.37M	42.00K	954.97K
Total Debt	413.75M	474.16M	786.10K	0.00
Total Liabilities	840.63M	1.04B	25.68M	18.32M
Stockholders Equity	566.96M	268.03M	244.52M	248.31M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	56.33M	-36.86M	-2.90M	-1.04M
Operating Cash Flow	116.74M	-11.71M	-2.90M	-1.04M
Investing Cash Flow	-165.34M	-779.11M	0.00	-265.15M
Financing Cash Flow	194.90M	823.14M	1.99M	267.14M

MAC Copper Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.11, above the 50-day MA of 12.08, and above the 200-day MA of 11.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTAL.

MAC Copper Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTAL	71 Outperform	$1.00B	―	-12.26%	―	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.26B	6.13	0.71%	2.87%	3.45%	-36.02%
AACT	―	$705.82M	43.67	3.11%	―	―	―
ANSC	―	$470.93M	80.24	1.70%	―	―	―
PEW	48 Neutral	$167.82M	36.77	1.80%	―	―	-17.50%
LEGT	―	$223.14M	―	4.43%	―	―	―
GPAT	―	$380.94M	29.64	4.55%	―	―	―