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Metals Corp (MTAL)
NYSE:MTAL
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Metals Corp
(NYSE:MTAL)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(9.93%Upside)
Positive Factors
Acquisition
Several key shareholders, who collectively own about 20% of the shares outstanding, have confirmed that they will vote in favor of the acquisition.
Financial Performance
MAC paid off the Mezz facility and upsized its revolving credit facility to US$125m, resulting in a ~30% reduction in debt costs.
Operational Improvements
MTAL has been focused on improving operations by increasing throughput, reducing dilution, and reducing costs by driving productivity.
Negative Factors
Bid Valuation
While a bump or alternative bid is possible, it is not expected to be a material increase to the approximately 32% premium offered by Harmony.
Stock Rating
The stock is downgraded to Market Perform due to insufficient upside to the target price.
Target Price
Our target price has been adjusted to $12.25 from $11.00 to reflect the bid made by Harmony Gold.
Metals Corp (MTAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)631.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees506
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength67
IndustryShell Companies
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.13
Shares Outstanding82,462,036
10 Day Avg. Volume1,117,690
30 Day Avg. Volume631,491
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)1.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio13.19
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.52Price Target Upside1.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
Metals Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMetals Corp (MTAL) is a leading company in the metals and mining sector, specializing in the extraction, processing, and distribution of a wide range of metals, including steel, copper, and aluminum. The company operates globally, serving various industries such as construction, automotive, aerospace, and electronics with high-quality metal products and innovative solutions that meet diverse industrial needs.
How the Company Makes MoneyMetals Corp generates revenue primarily through the sale of its extracted and processed metal products. The company operates large-scale mining operations to extract raw materials, which are then processed in its facilities to produce refined metals. These metals are sold to various industries that require them for manufacturing and construction purposes. Additionally, Metals Corp engages in strategic partnerships with industrial firms, enhancing its distribution network and securing long-term supply contracts. The company also invests in research and development to innovate new metal products and improve operational efficiencies, which can lead to cost savings and increased profit margins.
Metals Corp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: 18.19%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong operational and financial performance, including record copper production, significant cost reductions, and balance sheet improvements. Despite a few challenges such as a delayed shipment and contractor issues, the company is well-positioned for future growth with ongoing projects and a clear strategy.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Copper Production
MAC Copper Limited achieved a record copper production of 11,320 tonnes at a grade of 4.1% milled, surpassing the mid-point of their guidance.
Strong Financial Performance
The company reported a 47% EBITDA margin and converted 74% of that to cash. Liquidity stood at US$213 million, with a significant reduction in net gearing to 15%.
Cost Reduction Achievements
Achieved a record low C1 cash cost of US$1.66/lb, with a significant 70% reduction impacting costs positively.
Balance Sheet Deleveraging
Net gearing reduced from 41% to 15%, and cash and cash equivalents increased from US$32 million to US$172 million.
Future Growth Plans
The company is on track to exceed 50,000 tonnes of copper production by 2026, with ongoing projects like the Ventilation project and QTS South Upper development.
Safety Improvements
TRIFR improved from 14 to just under 11, indicating better safety performance.
Negative Updates
Delayed Shipping Impact
A delayed shipment in December affected revenue recognition, impacting free cash flow from operations which could have been US$37 million instead of US$30 million.
Challenges with External Contractors
The company faced delays in QTS South Upper development due to the inability to secure external contractors, losing about three months in the process.
Company Guidance
During the MAC Copper Limited Q4 2024 Conference Call, CEO Mick McMullen highlighted key metrics and achievements that positioned the company favorably for the future. The company reported production of 11,320 tonnes of copper at a grade of 4.1% milled, surpassing the mid-point of last year's guidance. The C1 cost for the quarter stood at US$1.66/lb, with a total cash cost of US$2.31/lb, reflecting a solid EBITDA margin of 47% and a cash conversion rate of 74%. The company's liquidity at year-end reached US$213 million, or A$340 million, bolstered by a net gearing reduction to 15%. MAC Copper Limited aims to exceed 50,000 tonnes of copper production by 2026, with the mid-point of guidance for 2025 at around 50,000 tonnes. The company is also implementing growth projects like the Ventilation project and QTS South Upper, while maintaining a focus on organic growth and further balance sheet optimization.Metals Corp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Metals Corp is on a positive trajectory with significant revenue growth and improved operational margins. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage and a stable equity position. Although profitability metrics are still recovering, cash flow improvements provide a promising outlook. Continued focus on enhancing profitability and cash flows will be key for sustained financial health.Income Statement
Metals Corp has demonstrated significant revenue growth, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increasing from the previous year. Gross profit margin improved to 34.44% from 11.22%, and EBIT margin turned positive at 22.61% compared to negative in the past. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -20.61%, indicating ongoing profitability challenges despite operational improvements.66
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company shows a solid equity ratio of 40.28% in TTM, indicating a stable financial structure. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.73, which is relatively moderate for the mining industry. Return on equity remains negative due to continued net losses, but improvements in operational performance suggest potential future profitability.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Metals Corp's free cash flow turned positive to $56.33M in TTM from a negative position. The operating cash flow to net income ratio shows improvement, though the free cash flow to net income ratio is impacted by negative net income. Continued positive cash flow generation is crucial for financial stability.58
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||
| 340.74M | 159.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| 117.34M | 17.83M | -2.12M | 0.00 | EBIT |
| 77.04M | -74.95M | 3.79M | -1.12M | EBITDA |
| 149.87M | -72.29M | -4.74M | 10.82M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -70.22M | -144.55M | -13.28M | 10.82M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||
| 32.37M | 32.37M | 42.31K | 954.97K | Total Assets |
| 1.31B | 1.31B | 270.19M | 266.64M | Total Debt |
| 474.16M | 411.44M | 786.10K | 0.00 | Net Debt |
| 441.79M | 409.07M | 743.78K | -954.97K | Total Liabilities |
| 1.04B | 1.04B | 25.68M | 18.32M | Stockholders Equity |
| 268.03M | 268.03M | 244.52M | 248.31M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||
| 56.33M | -36.86M | -2.90M | -1.04M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 116.74M | -11.71M | -2.90M | -1.04M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -165.34M | -779.11M | 0.00 | -265.15M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 194.90M | 823.14M | 1.99M | 267.14M |
Metals Corp Technical Analysis
Positive
12.28
Price Trends
9.74
Positive
10.18
Positive
11.12
Positive
Market Momentum
0.79
Negative
74.37
Negative
81.99
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.82, above the 50-day MA of 9.74, and above the 200-day MA of 11.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.37 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTAL.
Metals Corp Risk Analysis
Metals Corp disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Metals Corp reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Metals Corp Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $1.02B | ― | -53.93% | ― | ― | ― | |
51 Neutral | $2.03B | -1.13 | -21.36% | 3.65% | 2.87% | -30.54% | |
| $706.44M | 31.60 | 4.34% | ― | ― | ― | ||
| $464.46M | 56.38 | 2.40% | ― | ― | ― | ||
| $303.45M | 72.25 | 2.38% | ― | ― | ― | ||
| $225.83M | ― | 4.77% | ― | ― | ― | ||
| $378.78M | 32.60 | 8.15% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MTAL
Metals Corp
12.41
-2.13
-14.65%
AACT
Ares Acquisition Corporation II Class A
11.42
0.76
7.13%
ANSC
Agriculture & Natural Solutions Acquisition Corporation Class A
10.78
0.52
5.07%
CLBR
Colombier Acquisition Corp II Class A
14.75
4.42
42.79%
LEGT
Legato Merger Corp. III
10.66
0.53
5.23%
GPAT
GP-Act III Acquisition Corporation Class A
10.56
0.57
5.71%
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.