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MAC Copper (MTAL)
NYSE:MTAL
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MAC Copper
(NYSE:MTAL)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(11.66% Upside)
Positive Factors
Acquisition
Several key shareholders, who collectively own about 20% of the shares outstanding, have confirmed that they will vote in favor of the acquisition.
Debt Management
MAC paid off the Mezz facility and upsized its revolving credit facility to US$125m, resulting in a ~30% reduction in debt costs.
Operational Efficiency
MTAL has been focused on improving operations by increasing throughput, reducing dilution, and reducing costs by driving productivity.
Negative Factors
Acquisition Premium
While a bump or alternative bid is possible, it is not expected to be a material increase to the approximately 32% premium offered by Harmony.
Stock Performance
The stock is downgraded to Market Perform due to insufficient upside to the target price.
MAC Copper (MTAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$997.07M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)737.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees506
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.32
Shares Outstanding82,538,810
10 Day Avg. Volume999,763
30 Day Avg. Volume737,568
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.53Price Target Upside3.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
MAC Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMAC Copper Ltd does not have significant operations. It intends to effect a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses. The company intends to focus its search on metals and mining businesses. Metals Acquisition Corp was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Fort Worth, Texas.
How the Company Makes Moneynull
MAC Copper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: -0.33%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted MAC Copper Limited's strong financial health and significant production increases, with notable improvements in safety and project advancements. However, there are some concerns about meeting the lower end of production guidance and anticipated moderation in production and grade in the coming quarter.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Position
MAC Copper Limited reported a strong balance sheet with around USD 196 million in liquidity and USD 102 million of cash on the balance sheet. The company has maintained less than 20% net gearing, reducing interest costs by approximately USD 14 million per annum.
Significant Production Increase
The company produced just under 10,600 tonnes of copper, a 23% increase quarter-on-quarter. The copper grade improved by 8% to 4.4%.
Record Operating Free Cash Flow
MAC Copper achieved a record quarterly operating free cash flow of about USD 42 million, driven by higher production and improved grades.
Safety Improvements
Significant improvements in safety records were noted with no reportable incidents for the last year and none this year either.
Progress on Key Projects
Advancements were made on key growth projects, including the ventilation project and the Merrin Mine, with a 139% increase in growth capital expenditure.
Negative Updates
Production Guidance at Lower Range
The company maintained production guidance of 43,000 to 48,000 tonnes for the year but indicated that it will likely be in the bottom half of this range.
Volatility in Production Rates
The company experienced volatility in quarter-on-quarter production due to reliance on a small number of high-grade stopes.
Moderation in Production Expected
The company anticipates a moderation in grade and production during the latter part of Q3 due to stope sequencing and planned maintenance activities.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, MAC Copper Limited reported a promising operational and financial outlook during their earnings call. The company produced just under 10,600 tonnes of copper, marking a 23% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a copper grade of 4.4%, an 8% improvement. Financially, MAC Copper ended the quarter with USD 196 million in liquidity and USD 102 million in cash, achieving a net gearing of just over 17%. Operating free cash flow reached a record USD 42 million, driven by a 3% increase in realized copper price and reduced interest costs following a refinancing initiative. The company maintained its annual production guidance at 43,000 to 48,000 tonnes, expecting to meet the lower half of this range, and saw a notable reduction in C1 costs to USD 1.48 per pound, with June achieving USD 0.94 per pound. Key projects like the ventilation project and Merrin Mine development are progressing well, with significant increases in development meters and capital expenditure. Additionally, MAC Copper is advancing its transaction with Harmony and anticipates a vote on August 29, 2025.MAC Copper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
MAC Copper has shown strong revenue growth and operational improvements, evidenced by a positive EBIT and improved cash flows. However, profitability remains a challenge with a negative net profit margin. The balance sheet is solid, but ongoing losses impact return on equity.Income Statement
MAC Copper has shown significant revenue growth, with a 114.4% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 34.4% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -24.0% due to high expenses, although it has improved from -90.9% in 2023. The EBIT margin turned positive at 22.6%, showing operational improvements.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company has a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.73, indicating a balanced leverage position. The return on equity is negative due to net losses, but the equity ratio is strong at 40.3%, reflecting a solid equity base compared to total assets.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow improved significantly to $116.7 million in 2024, reflecting better cash generation from operations. Free cash flow turned positive at $56.3 million, indicating improved liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting efficient cash management despite net losses.80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 340.74M | 159.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 117.34M | 17.83M | -2.12M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | 59.02M | -72.23M | -4.74M | 10.81M |
| Net Income | -81.69M | -144.55M | -13.28M | 10.81M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 1.41B | 1.31B | 270.19M | 266.64M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 171.90M | 32.37M | 42.00K | 954.97K |
| Total Debt | 413.75M | 474.16M | 786.10K | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 840.63M | 1.04B | 25.68M | 18.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 566.96M | 268.03M | 244.52M | 248.31M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 56.33M | -36.86M | -2.90M | -1.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 116.74M | -11.71M | -2.90M | -1.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -165.34M | -779.11M | 0.00 | -265.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 194.90M | 823.14M | 1.99M | 267.14M |
MAC Copper Technical Analysis
Positive
12.09
Price Trends
12.09
Negative
10.84
Positive
11.09
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
58.74
Neutral
67.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.06, below the 50-day MA of 12.09, and above the 200-day MA of 11.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTAL.
MAC Copper Risk Analysis
MAC Copper disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MAC Copper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MAC Copper Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $997.07M | ― | -53.93% | ― | ― | ― | |
44 Neutral | AU$1.53B | -7.23 | -27.95% | 4.48% | -2.91% | -36.73% | |
| ― | $705.20M | 31.54 | 4.34% | ― | ― | ― | |
| ― | $469.20M | 56.90 | 2.40% | ― | ― | ― | |
| ― | $192.11M | 31.95 | 2.38% | ― | ― | ― | |
| ― | $244.86M | ― | 4.43% | ― | ― | ― | |
| ― | $378.78M | 32.54 | 8.15% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MTAL
MAC Copper
12.09
0.65
5.68%
AACT
Ares Acquisition Corporation II Class A
11.41
0.65
6.04%
ANSC
Agriculture & Natural Solutions Acquisition Corporation Class A
10.88
0.56
5.43%
PEW
GrabAGun Digital Holdings
6.16
-4.09
-39.90%
LEGT
Legato Merger Corp. III
10.72
0.56
5.51%
GPAT
GP-Act III Acquisition Corporation Class A
10.54
0.51
5.08%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.