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ZTO Express (ZTO)
NYSE:ZTO
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ZTO Express
(NYSE:ZTO)
80Outperform
ZTO Express (ZTO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.53B
Dividend Yield4.79%
Average Volume (3M)2.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.3
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth12.67%
EPS Growth-0.16%
CountryUS
Employees23,554
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength66
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.48
Shares Outstanding598,368,470
10 Day Avg. Volume2,937,723
30 Day Avg. Volume2,822,878
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)3.08
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.88Price Target Upside20.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
ZTO Express Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of approximately 10,900 trucks. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyZTO Express generates revenue through a variety of channels within the logistics and transportation sector. The primary revenue stream is its express delivery service, where fees are charged based on package weight, distance, and speed of delivery. ZTO also earns money from value-added services such as warehousing, fulfillment, and supply chain management solutions, which cater to businesses seeking integrated logistics support. The company's strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms, such as Alibaba, contribute significantly to its parcel volume and revenue. Additionally, ZTO leverages its extensive network and technology to offer freight forwarding services, enhancing its earnings potential. The company's ability to efficiently manage its operations and maintain competitive pricing is crucial in sustaining its revenue growth.
ZTO Express Financial Statement Overview
Summary
ZTO Express demonstrates strong financial health with robust revenue growth of 15.26%, high gross and net profit margins, and impressive cash flow generation. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage and a solid equity ratio, underscoring financial stability and efficient capital management.Income Statement
ZTO Express has shown robust growth in revenue, with a 15.26% increase from 2023 to 2024. The Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin are strong at approximately 31% and 19.9%, respectively, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are high, reinforcing operational efficiency and strong cash flow generation capacity.88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.28, suggesting low leverage and financial stability. The Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 14.2%, reflecting efficient use of equity. The Equity Ratio is strong at 67.2%, indicating a solid capital structure with a high proportion of assets financed by equity.85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow has grown significantly by 70.8% from 2023 to 2024, showcasing strong cash generation capabilities. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.3, indicating that the company is generating ample cash from its operations. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is also healthy at 1.3, reinforcing effective cash management relative to profitability.80
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 44.28B | 38.42B | 35.38B | 30.41B | 25.21B | Gross Profit |
| 13.72B | 11.66B | 9.04B | 6.59B | 5.84B | EBIT |
| 11.78B | 10.01B | 7.74B | 3.65B | 3.36B | EBITDA |
| 14.80B | 13.85B | 11.15B | 5.87B | 5.20B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 8.82B | 8.75B | 6.81B | 4.75B | 4.31B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 22.31B | 19.89B | 17.45B | 12.57B | 17.90B | Total Assets |
| 92.34B | 88.47B | 78.52B | 62.77B | 59.20B | Total Debt |
| 17.35B | 15.44B | 13.12B | 4.44B | 2.51B | Net Debt |
| 3.88B | 3.10B | 1.43B | -5.28B | -11.70B | Total Liabilities |
| 29.67B | 28.18B | 24.05B | 13.84B | 10.11B | Stockholders Equity |
| 62.06B | 59.80B | 54.03B | 48.64B | 48.98B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 11.43B | 6.69B | 4.07B | -2.11B | -4.26B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 11.43B | 13.36B | 11.48B | 7.22B | 4.95B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -5.98B | -12.25B | -16.04B | -8.76B | -3.55B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -5.00B | -769.84M | 7.06B | -2.90B | 8.34B |
ZTO Express Technical Analysis
Negative
19.83
Price Trends
19.70
Positive
19.69
Positive
20.70
Negative
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
48.09
Neutral
15.36
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ZTO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.15, above the 50-day MA of 19.70, and below the 200-day MA of 20.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ZTO.
ZTO Express Risk Analysis
ZTO Express disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ZTO Express reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ZTO Express Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $15.53B | 13.34 | 14.45% | 4.79% | 12.67% | -0.16% | |
74 Outperform | $57.91B | 15.18 | 14.74% | 2.23% | 0.34% | -8.45% | |
72 Outperform | $92.99B | 16.22 | 33.99% | 5.94% | 0.16% | -13.41% | |
68 Neutral | $12.11B | 26.54 | 29.65% | 2.40% | 0.73% | 41.65% | |
66 Neutral | $12.61B | 33.27 | 27.07% | ― | 4.22% | 105.29% | |
62 Neutral | $8.07B | 13.60 | 3.76% | 3.13% | 3.60% | -14.67% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ZTO
ZTO Express
19.83
-1.23
-5.84%
CHRW
CH Robinson
102.76
32.34
45.92%
XPO
XPO
109.18
-11.99
-9.90%
FDX
FedEx
241.98
-27.66
-10.26%
RRTS
Roadrunner Transp
4.76
3.40
250.00%
UPS
United Parcel
109.26
-32.59
-22.97%
ZTO Express Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 18, 2025 | % Change Since: -6.90% | Next Earnings Date: May 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in parcel volume and profitability, driven by strategic partnerships and cost efficiencies. However, challenges such as price competition and a revised growth outlook indicate pressures from market conditions. The sentiment is mixed with a balance of positive growth metrics and strategic challenges.Highlights
Parcel Volume Growth
ZTO's total parcel volume reached 8.72 billion, representing a 15.9% year-over-year growth.
Adjusted Net Profit Increase
The adjusted net profit for the quarter was CNY 2.39 billion, maintaining profitability ahead of peers.
Retail Parcel Growth
Retail parcels grew over 40% year-over-year, driven by partnerships with e-commerce platforms.
Revenue Increase
Total revenue increased 17.6% to CNY 10.7 billion.
Cost Efficiency Gains
Unit cost of line-haul transportation decreased by 9.7%, and unit sorting costs decreased by 6.4%.
Gross Profit and Margin Improvement
Gross profit increased by 23.2% to CNY 3.3 billion, and gross profit margin improved by 1.4 points to 31.2%.
Lowlights
Price Competition Pressure
The optimization of revenue structure was needed to alleviate pressure due to price competition.
Revised Parcel Volume Guidance
Parcel volume for 2024 is revised to be in the range of 333 billion to 339 billion, indicating a slowdown in growth.
Challenges from Low-Value E-commerce Packages
The increasing proportion of low-value e-commerce packages presents new challenges to the corporate strategy.
Increased SG&A Expenses
SG&A expenses, excluding stock-based compensation, increased by 0.2 percentage points.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2024 earnings call for ZTO Express, the company's leadership provided comprehensive guidance on their financial performance and strategic direction. The call highlighted a 15.9% year-over-year growth in parcel volume, reaching 8.72 billion parcels, and an adjusted net profit of CNY 2.39 billion. The total revenue increased by 17.6% to CNY 10.7 billion, with the gross profit margin improving to 31.2%. The guidance for the full year indicated an expected parcel volume between 333 billion to 339 billion, representing an 11.6% to 12.3% increase year-over-year. The focus was on maintaining service quality and profitability while adapting pricing strategies to stimulate high-volume daily average customers, particularly in the low-price e-commerce segment. The company also emphasized its strategic initiatives, including enhancing last-mile delivery systems and leveraging fintech tools to improve operational efficiency.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.