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Ermenegildo Zegna
(NYSE:ZGN)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-2.23% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is driven mainly by solid financial quality (especially cash generation and improving leverage) and an attractive valuation (low P/E). These positives are moderated by cautious 2026 outlook factors from the earnings call (FX headwinds, SG&A pressure, wholesale contraction) and technically overbought signals despite a strong uptrend.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Ermenegildo Zegna’s sharp FCF improvement in 2025 (EUR 82m and +42.3% growth) demonstrates durable cash-generation capacity. Consistent FCF coverage of earnings (55%–75%) supports reinvestment, dividends and debt paydown, enhancing financial flexibility through cycles and enabling funding of brand investments without over-reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Weakening Revenue Trend
Revenue momentum softened into 2025 with reported declines and mixed organic trends, limiting operating leverage. Prolonged top-line stagnation or contraction would compress margins, delay returns from brand investments and make SG&A and capex funding more reliant on cash or higher leverage, increasing execution risk for margin restoration plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Ermenegildo Zegna’s sharp FCF improvement in 2025 (EUR 82m and +42.3% growth) demonstrates durable cash-generation capacity. Consistent FCF coverage of earnings (55%–75%) supports reinvestment, dividends and debt paydown, enhancing financial flexibility through cycles and enabling funding of brand investments without over-reliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Ermenegildo Zegna (ZGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.23B
Dividend Yield0.93%
Average Volume (3M)571.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.5
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth2.91%
EPS Growth29.96%
CountryUS
Employees7,243
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding268,312,040
10 Day Avg. Volume642,963
30 Day Avg. Volume571,498
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.22
Price to Book (P/B)2.20
Price to Sales (P/S)1.23
P/FCF Ratio9.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.33Price Target Upside7.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.03B
Ermenegildo Zegna Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., along with its affiliated entities, operates as a leading luxury fashion house. The company is engaged in the design, production, marketing, and global distribution of high-end menswear, footwear, leather goods, and assorte...
How the Company Makes Money
Zegna primarily makes money by selling luxury products and related services through multiple channels. (1) Direct-to-consumer (DTC): The company generates revenue through sales in its directly operated retail stores and via e-commerce, capturing f...
Ermenegildo Zegna Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a generally positive financial and operational picture: improved gross margin (+90 bps), higher DTC mix (82% vs 78%), stronger reported profit (+20% to EUR 109.5m), materially improved cash generation (free cash flow EUR 82m) and a net cash surplus (EUR 52m). These positives are balanced against meaningful near-term challenges: SG&A deleverage, continued wholesale streamlining (notably at Thom Browne), a Tom Ford H1 loss (improved in H2), FX headwinds (~2ppt on revenues) and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. Management reiterated a cautious 2026 posture (profitability broadly sideline) while outlining multi-year plans to restore double-digit margins at the growth brands and to invest for long-term value.Positive Updates
Stable Full-Year Revenue with Organic Growth
Full-year revenues of EUR 1.917 billion: reported decline of -1.5% YoY but organic growth of +1.1% YoY, indicating underlying positive momentum when currency and timing effects are excluded.
Negative Updates
Reported Revenue Decline and FX Headwinds
Reported revenues declined -1.5% YoY; management cites FX as a headwind (around ~2 percentage points impact expected on 2026 revenues vs 2025), creating uncertainty for topline and margin progression in near term.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Stable Full-Year Revenue with Organic Growth
Full-year revenues of EUR 1.917 billion: reported decline of -1.5% YoY but organic growth of +1.1% YoY, indicating underlying positive momentum when currency and timing effects are excluded.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management confirmed FY25 metrics and gave directional 2026 guidance: FY25 revenues were EUR 1.917bn (‑1.5% reported, +1.1% organic) with a 67.5% gross margin and adjusted EBIT of EUR 163m (EUR 173m excl. a EUR 10m Saks provision), group profit of EUR 109.5m (+20%), net cash surplus of EUR 52m and DTC at 82% of branded revenues; SG&A was EUR 1.034bn (53.9% of revenues), marketing EUR 121m (6.3% of revenues, with a mid‑term target ~6%), CapEx EUR 103m (5.4% of revenues, expected ~7% in 2026 for the Parma shoe factory), trade working capital EUR 408m (21.3% of revenues) and free cash flow EUR 82m (plus EUR 107m from sale of treasury shares to Temasek); they proposed a EUR 0.12/share dividend (~EUR 32m). For 2026 management expects revenues around EUR 2bn, a “sideline” (roughly flat) group EBIT margin versus 2025 excluding one‑offs, about a 2‑point FX headwind to revenues, continued DTC momentum, wholesale reductions (Zegna mid‑teens decline, Tom Ford negative single‑digit, Thom Browne double‑digit but improving), Tom Ford and Thom Browne moving back toward double‑digit EBIT in the medium term, and marketing investment remaining at about 6% of revenues.Ermenegildo Zegna Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.84B | 1.95B | 1.90B | 1.49B | 1.29B |
| Gross Profit | 1.02B | 1.30B | 1.22B | 928.01M | 800.79M |
| EBITDA | 391.75M | 406.23M | 392.95M | 335.50M | 71.14M |
| Net Income | 94.69M | 77.08M | 121.53M | 51.48M | -136.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.83B | 2.83B | 2.77B | 2.43B | 2.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 295.68M | 296.13M | 387.03M | 572.99M | 800.17M |
| Total Debt | 977.36M | 1.04B | 996.35M | 914.56M | 1.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.73B | 1.85B | 1.87B | 1.69B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.03B | 916.12M | 840.29M | 678.95M | 601.21M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 242.19M | 153.60M | 197.50M | 73.10M | 186.83M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 322.32M | 279.13M | 275.38M | 146.40M | 281.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -105.58M | -126.01M | 21.79M | -57.34M | -82.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -206.57M | -234.53M | -250.49M | -297.00M | -64.11M |
Ermenegildo Zegna Technical Analysis
Positive
14.32
Price Trends
14.02
Positive
12.70
Positive
11.48
Positive
Market Momentum
0.43
Negative
64.10
Neutral
89.06
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ZGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.25, above the 50-day MA of 14.02, and above the 200-day MA of 11.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ZGN.
Ermenegildo Zegna Risk Analysis
Ermenegildo Zegna disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ermenegildo Zegna reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Summary of Risk Factors Q4, 2023
Ermenegildo Zegna Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $22.64B | 24.67 | 34.77% | 1.00% | 14.63% | 29.96% | |
73 Outperform | $9.44B | 15.04 | 28.66% | 2.36% | 4.34% | 20.99% | |
68 Neutral | $6.23B | 34.47 | 10.25% | 0.96% | 2.91% | 29.96% | |
67 Neutral | $3.04B | 15.38 | 12.58% | 1.93% | -0.22% | -2.10% | |
65 Neutral | $4.00B | 26.03 | 3.25% | 0.19% | 3.54% | -55.30% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
51 Neutral | $5.63B | 20.46 | 15.95% | 2.11% | -0.16% | 212.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ZGN
Ermenegildo Zegna
14.80
7.10
92.23%
COLM
Columbia Sportswear
57.28
7.41
14.85%
PVH
PVH
86.55
12.95
17.59%
RL
Ralph Lauren
395.83
115.51
41.21%
VFC
VF
14.75
2.96
25.06%
LEVI
Levi Strauss & Co
24.30
4.68
23.82%
Ermenegildo Zegna Corporate Events
Ermenegildo Zegna Posts Double‑Digit Q2 2026 Revenue Growth on DTC Momentum
Jul 23, 2026
Ermenegildo Zegna Group reported unaudited H1 2026 revenues of €987.3 million on July 23, 2026, a 6.4% year‑on‑year increase, with organic growth at 9.3%. Second‑quarter revenues rose 10.3% to €517.1 million, driven b...
Ermenegildo Zegna to Release H1 2026 Preliminary Revenues on July 23
Jul 9, 2026
Ermenegildo Zegna Group announced on July 9, 2026, that it will publish its preliminary revenues for the first half of 2026 on July 23, 2026, before U.S. markets open. The company will host a conference call and live webcast the same day, with mat...
Ermenegildo Zegna Shareholders Approve Dividend and New CEO at June 26 AGM
Jun 26, 2026
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. reported that shareholders at its annual general meeting in Milan on June 26, 2026 approved all resolutions on the agenda, underscoring broad investor support for the luxury menswear group’s strategic direction. The me...
Ermenegildo Zegna Posts Solid Q1 2026 as Direct-to-Consumer Push Lifts Revenues
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Ermenegildo Zegna Group reported unaudited first-quarter 2026 revenues of €470.2 million, up 2.5% year-on-year and 7.4% on an organic basis, underscoring a solid start to the year driven by accelerating direct-to-consumer ...
Ermenegildo Zegna Sets June 26, 2026 AGM and Proposes €0.12 Dividend for 2025
Apr 30, 2026
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. announced on April 30, 2026 that it has published the convocation notice and related materials for its 2026 Annual General Meeting, scheduled for June 26, 2026 at the Steigenberger Airport Hotel Amsterdam. Shareholders can a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.