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Zillow Group Inc Class A (ZG)
NASDAQ:ZG

Zillow Group Class A (ZG) AI Stock Analysis

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ZG

Zillow Group Class A

(NASDAQ:ZG)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
▲(2.78%Upside)
Zillow Group's overall stock score reflects strong financial management and promising growth in key revenue segments, as highlighted in the earnings call and recent corporate actions. However, ongoing profitability challenges and mixed technical indicators weigh on the score. The strategic moves to settle debt and initiate a stock buyback are positive, but valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio limit the upside.
Positive Factors
Partnerships
The Redfin partnership complements already robust Rentals growth.
Technology Advantage
Zillow has a massive tech moat that converts into a sustainable data advantage on both sides of the equation.
Negative Factors
Guidance and Expectations
The FY guide may feel like Zillow is not following the script to get to their targets.
Housing Market
The housing market remains muted and keeps the stock cautious for now.
Market Sentiment
Sentiment has been continuing to slowly shift away from belief in Zillow’s mid-cycle earnings power to questions around their ultimate ability to be a dominant share player in a consolidating market.

Zillow Group Class A (ZG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Zillow Group Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionZillow Group, Inc., a digital real estate company, operates real estate brands on mobile applications and Websites in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Homes; Internet, Media & Technology; and Mortgages. The Homes segment is involved in resale of homes; and title and escrow services to home buyers and sellers, including title search procedures for title insurance policies, escrow, and other closing services. The IMT segment offers premier agent, rentals, and new construction marketplaces, as well as dotloop, display, and other advertising, as well as business software solutions. The Mortgage segment provides home loans; and marketing products including custom quote and connect services. Its portfolio of brands includes Zillow Rentals, Trulia, StreetEasy, Zillow Closing Services, HotPads, and Out East. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyZillow Group generates revenue primarily through its online real estate marketplace and related services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Premier Agent: Zillow charges real estate agents for advertising and leads generated through its platform. Agents pay for enhanced visibility and access to potential clients. (2) Zillow Offers: Previously, Zillow directly participated in buying and selling homes through this program, although it is currently winding down. (3) Rentals Marketplace: Revenue is generated from property management companies and landlords who pay for advertising rental properties. (4) Mortgages: Zillow offers advertising and leads to mortgage lenders and receives fees for connecting them with potential borrowers. Additionally, Zillow earns from display advertising on its websites and mobile applications. Partnerships with real estate professionals and integration of various services also contribute to its financial growth.

Zillow Group Class A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 3.97%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Zillow Group's Q1 earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, exceeding expectations with significant growth in rentals and mortgages. Despite challenges in the broader housing market, Zillow achieved GAAP profitability and continued to expand its Enhanced Markets. However, the company anticipates cost increases in Q2 related to seasonal marketing and new partnerships.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeding Q1 Outlook
Zillow exceeded their Q1 outlook, achieving strong top-line growth despite macroeconomic challenges. They achieved GAAP profitability and reported a 13% year-over-year revenue increase.
Significant Growth in Rentals Revenue
Rentals revenue increased by 33% year-over-year, reaching an all-time high of $129 million in Q1. Multifamily revenue grew by 47% in the quarter.
Expansion of Enhanced Markets
The share of connections within Enhanced Markets increased from 21% in Q4 to 24% in Q1, with expectations to reach more than 35% by the end of the year.
Positive GAAP Net Income
Zillow achieved a positive GAAP net income of $8 million for Q1, representing 1% of their revenue.
Strong Performance in Mortgages Revenue
Mortgages revenue was up 32% year-over-year to $41 million in Q1, driven by the growth of Zillow Home Loans.
Negative Updates
Challenges in the Housing Market
The high-end of the housing market was the main contributor to growth, while the rest of the market was largely flat year-over-year, impacting overall residential performance.
Cost Increases Expected in Q2
EBITDA expenses are expected to increase from $445 million in Q1 to an estimated $495 million in Q2, driven by seasonal marketing and costs associated with the Redfin Rentals partnership.
Company Guidance
During Zillow Group's First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Call, strong performance metrics were highlighted, including a 13% year-over-year revenue increase to $598 million, which surpassed their outlook by $15 million. The company achieved a GAAP profitability milestone, reporting $8 million in net income, driven by a $153 million adjusted EBITDA and a 26% EBITDA margin, marking a 200 basis point improvement. Zillow's For Sale category revenue rose 8% year-over-year, with Residential and Mortgages revenues increasing by 6% and 32%, respectively. Rentals revenue, reaching an all-time high of $129 million, grew by 33%, supported by a 47% growth in multifamily revenue. Zillow's Enhanced Markets strategy contributed to 24% of connections in Q1, expected to rise to over 35% by year-end. The company also reported 227 million average monthly unique users, with 80% of traffic being direct and organic. For full-year 2025, Zillow aims for low to mid-teens revenue growth, continued EBITDA margin expansion, and positive GAAP net income, with a focus on scaling its housing super app and enhancing its comprehensive Rentals marketplace.

Zillow Group Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Zillow Group shows moderate revenue growth and effective cost management with a strong gross profit margin. However, challenges with profitability and decreasing free cash flow remain concerns despite a solid equity position and low leverage.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Zillow Group's revenue shows a moderate growth trend with a 3.09% increase TTM over the previous year. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income margins in the TTM period, although there's a slight improvement compared to the prior year. Gross profit margin remains strong at 76.45%, suggesting effective cost management in core operations.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet of Zillow Group is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, indicating financial stability and low leverage. Stockholders' equity constitutes a substantial 82.74% of total assets, reflecting a strong equity position. However, the company has negative net income, affecting its return on equity.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The TTM cash flow shows positive free cash flow, though it has decreased compared to the previous report. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, demonstrating efficient cash generation from operations despite negative net income. However, the decrease in free cash flow growth rate is a concern.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.31B2.24B1.95B1.96B8.15B3.34B
Gross Profit
1.76B1.71B1.52B1.59B1.75B1.58B
EBIT
-161.00M-197.00M-270.00M-26.00M-246.21M60.94M
EBITDA
122.00M198.00M125.00M123.00M370.00M119.96M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-81.00M-112.00M-158.00M-88.00M-527.78M-162.12M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.60B1.86B2.81B3.36B3.13B3.92B
Total Assets
5.75B5.83B6.65B6.56B10.70B7.49B
Total Debt
687.00M660.00M1.83B1.87B5.01B2.52B
Net Debt
-227.00M-422.00M340.00M401.00M2.40B816.63M
Total Liabilities
992.00M981.00M2.13B2.08B5.35B2.74B
Stockholders Equity
4.75B4.85B4.53B4.48B5.34B4.74B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
204.00M285.00M189.00M4.36B-3.28B315.68M
Operating Cash Flow
452.00M428.00M354.00M4.50B-3.18B424.20M
Investing Cash Flow
547.00M395.00M25.00M-1.53B1.09B-1.04B
Financing Cash Flow
-1.52B-1.23B-352.00M-4.34B3.15B1.16B

Zillow Group Class A Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price69.08
Price Trends
50DMA
65.85
Positive
100DMA
70.13
Negative
200DMA
68.37
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.99
Negative
RSI
55.46
Neutral
STOCH
65.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ZG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 69.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.60, above the 50-day MA of 65.85, and above the 200-day MA of 68.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ZG.

Zillow Group Class A Risk Analysis

Zillow Group Class A disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Zillow Group Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Zillow Group Class A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$2.29B17.0319.74%5.93%29.17%
69
Neutral
$18.04B-0.39%9.27%95.03%
69
Neutral
$3.19B86.367.98%0.63%15.34%
ZZ
66
Neutral
$17.27B-1.72%14.96%49.24%
ZGZG
64
Neutral
$17.27B-1.72%14.96%49.24%
61
Neutral
$14.64B5.81-3.99%6.03%2.71%-31.56%
47
Neutral
$581.54M-18.77%12.01%35.71%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ZG
Zillow Group Class A
69.08
23.54
51.69%
YELP
Yelp
35.41
-0.72
-1.99%
Z
Zillow Group Class C
70.37
23.56
50.33%
TWLO
Twilio
113.39
59.86
111.83%
CARG
CarGurus
30.78
5.31
20.85%
KIND
Nextdoor Holdings
1.52
-1.04
-40.63%

Zillow Group Class A Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Zillow Group Elects Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 3, 2025

On June 2, 2025, Zillow Group held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where shareholders voted to elect four Class II directors and ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The election of directors and the ratification of the accounting firm are significant for Zillow Group’s governance and financial oversight, impacting its operational stability and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (ZG) stock is a Buy with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Zillow Group Class A stock, see the ZG Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingFinancial Disclosures
Zillow Group Settles Convertible Senior Notes Debt
Positive
May 16, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Zillow Group, Inc. fully settled its $419 million outstanding principal amount of 2.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025, rendering the company debt-free except for credit facility borrowings for Zillow Home Loans. The settlement involved cash payments totaling approximately $425 million and the issuance of 1,385 shares of Class C capital stock, marking a significant financial milestone for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (ZG) stock is a Buy with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Zillow Group Class A stock, see the ZG Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Zillow Group Authorizes $1 Billion Stock Buyback
Positive
May 7, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Zillow Group announced its Board of Directors authorized an additional $1 billion for stock repurchases, supplementing previous authorizations. The company reported strong financial results for Q1 2025, with revenue up 13% year over year to $598 million, driven by growth in various segments including Premier Agent offerings and rental services. Zillow’s strategic expansion and effective execution have positioned it for sustainable profitable growth, with increased traffic to its platforms and a positive outlook for the year.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.