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CarGurus Inc (CARG)
NASDAQ:CARG

CarGurus (CARG) AI Stock Analysis

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CarGurus

(NASDAQ:CARG)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$34.00
▼(-1.96%Downside)
CarGurus' solid financial performance and positive earnings call guidance contribute significantly to its overall score. However, high valuation concerns and mixed technical indicators temper the outlook. The company's strategic focus on marketplace and international growth, despite challenges in other segments, positions it for potential future gains.
Positive Factors
International Expansion
International markets are growing revenue much faster than U.S. operations, with around 20% year-over-year growth.
Market Share Growth
CarGurus achieved its highest dealer growth since Covid and is helping the company gain market share.
Product Innovation
New products like Dealer Data Insights, Digital Deal, and Sell My Car TDO are gaining traction and supporting the marketplace momentum.
Negative Factors
Digital Wholesale Challenges
Digital Wholesale pressures are likely to continue with volumes expected to decline sequentially as CarGurus reevaluates its operating model.
Revenue Growth Concerns
The price target is lowered to account for slowing growth in marketplace subscription revenue.
Slowing Margin Expansion
The margin expansion trajectory is likely to slow due to greater marketing and international product investments.

CarGurus (CARG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CarGurus Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarGurus, Inc. operates an online automotive marketplace connecting buyers and sellers of new and used cars in the United States and internationally. The company provides consumers an online automotive marketplace where they can search for new and used car listings from its dealers, as well as sell their car in the United States marketplace. Its marketplace connects dealers to a large audience of informed and engaged consumers. The company operates online marketplaces under the CarGurus brand in Canada and the United Kingdom; and the Autolist and PistonHeads online marketplaces as independent brands in the United States and the United Kingdom. CarGurus, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarGurus generates revenue primarily through its marketplace and advertising services. The company earns money by charging subscription fees to dealerships that list their inventory on its platform, offering them enhanced visibility and access to a large audience of potential buyers. Additionally, CarGurus provides advertising solutions for car manufacturers and dealers, including display advertising and lead generation services. A significant portion of its revenue also comes from partnerships and affiliate programs, where it earns commissions from third-party services integrated into its platform, such as financing and insurance products.

CarGurus Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Paying Dealers by Geography
Paying Dealers by Geography
Shows the distribution of paying dealers across different regions, highlighting market penetration and potential areas for expansion or increased competition.
Chart InsightsCarGurus is seeing a steady recovery in its U.S. dealer base, with numbers gradually rebounding after previous declines. The international dealer segment is experiencing robust growth, aligning with the company's earnings call highlighting a 23% increase in international revenue. This expansion is critical as it offsets challenges in the Digital Wholesale segment, which faced significant losses. The focus on enhancing dealer engagement and international expansion seems to be a strategic move to stabilize overall revenue and mitigate risks from underperforming segments.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

CarGurus Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 24.08%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a strong performance in the marketplace segment, international growth, and robust dealer and consumer engagement. However, it also highlighted significant challenges in the wholesale and product revenue segments, specifically with the CarOffer platform. While the highlights show promising growth and innovation, the lowlights indicate areas requiring strategic reassessment and improvement.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Marketplace Revenue Growth
Marketplace revenue grew 13% year-over-year, adding $25 million, driven by dealer count growth, subscription tier upgrades, and increased adoption of value-added products and services.
International Revenue Expansion
International revenue expanded 20% year-over-year, with significant growth in Canada and the UK, driven by a 22% year-over-year aggregate lead growth and continued product innovation.
Improved Marketplace Margins
Marketplace adjusted EBITDA grew 27% year-over-year with margins improving more than 340 basis points to nearly 33%.
Strong Dealer Engagement and Adoption
Dealer adoption of new products like VIN level targeting and Digital Deal has increased, with nearly 1,200 net new global dealer additions year-over-year.
Consumer Engagement and Brand Strength
CarGurus was Canada's most downloaded auto app in Q1, contributing to an 85% year-over-year increase in direct traffic and reinforcing brand strength.
Negative Updates
Decline in Wholesale and Product Revenue
Wholesale revenue was down 52% year-over-year, and product revenue was down 58% year-over-year, driven by lower transaction volumes.
Challenges with CarOffer Platform
CarOffer faced structural limitations and operational inefficiencies, prompting a strategic assessment to identify sustainable growth and profitability potential.
Company Guidance
During the CarGurus, Inc. First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance and metrics reflecting their strong performance and future outlook. The first quarter revenue was reported at $225 million, showing a 4% year-over-year increase, while marketplace revenue grew by 13% year-over-year to $212 million. International revenue also saw a significant rise of 20% year-over-year. The adjusted EBITDA increased by 32% year-over-year to $66.3 million, with a margin of 29%. The company added 734 paying US dealers year-over-year, marking the highest dealer growth since pre-pandemic times. QARSD grew by 10% year-over-year. For the second quarter of 2025, CarGurus anticipates total revenue to range from $222 million to $242 million, with marketplace revenue expected to grow between 12% and 15% year-over-year. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, including tariffs, the company remains optimistic, projecting a low double-digit year-over-year growth rate by the end of 2025.

CarGurus Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CarGurus demonstrates solid financial health with strong gross profit margins and efficient cash flow management. Despite the healthy balance sheet, challenges in consistent revenue growth and asset stability need attention. Profitability and asset utilization improvements are critical for further enhancement.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The income statement shows a robust gross profit margin of 84.2% TTM, supported by a consistent gross profit over the past periods. However, revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decline in 2022 followed by a slight recovery. The net profit margin is modest at 4.3% TTM, indicating room for profitability improvement. EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate operational efficiency, with TTM figures at 17.7% and 21.2% respectively.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet displays a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49 TTM, indicating manageable leverage. Return on Equity is modest at 9.6% TTM, suggesting moderate returns for equity holders. The equity ratio stands at 58.3% TTM, highlighting a strong equity base. However, declining total assets over recent periods could pose a risk if not addressed.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals strong free cash flow growth and a solid operating cash flow to net income ratio of 7.0 TTM, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 5.7 TTM, reflecting effective cash management. However, fluctuations in investing and financing cash flows suggest some volatility in capital allocation strategies.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue903.75M894.38M914.24M1.66B951.37M551.45M
Gross Profit761.46M738.95M651.45M657.55M657.36M508.75M
EBITDA191.82M173.27M81.10M167.76M200.01M104.62M
Net Income38.72M20.97M31.10M84.39M109.24M77.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets689.12M824.54M918.93M927.10M931.57M502.30M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments172.86M304.19M312.09M469.52M321.94M290.30M
Total Debt195.43M192.74M194.39M66.42M70.70M69.89M
Total Liabilities287.06M282.85M302.07M155.74M251.93M128.71M
Stockholders Equity402.05M541.69M616.85M734.61M516.84M373.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow219.27M180.32M83.32M238.84M84.42M149.21M
Operating Cash Flow271.41M255.49M124.53M256.11M98.29M156.74M
Investing Cash Flow-67.45M-72.97M-61.56M72.73M-68.15M-16.89M
Financing Cash Flow-277.07M-168.63M-253.64M-90.04M17.81M-10.09M

CarGurus Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price34.68
Price Trends
50DMA
31.75
Positive
100DMA
30.95
Positive
200DMA
33.07
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.75
Negative
RSI
66.33
Neutral
STOCH
81.29
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.88, above the 50-day MA of 31.75, and above the 200-day MA of 33.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.29 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CARG.

CarGurus Risk Analysis

CarGurus disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CarGurus reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

CarGurus Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$886.92M24.1832.17%113.43%
72
Outperform
$3.27B14.866.55%8.59%-5.77%-15.07%
67
Neutral
$3.44B97.317.98%0.63%15.34%
ZZ
66
Neutral
$17.41B-1.72%14.96%49.24%
64
Neutral
£1.70B10.466.12%3.13%0.58%-32.48%
58
Neutral
$10.97B189.78-10.51%-97.73%-217.89%
55
Neutral
$166.59M-26.46%10.18%1.47%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CARG
CarGurus
34.68
9.19
36.05%
NBIS
Nebius Group
46.43
27.49
145.14%
Z
Zillow Group Class C
78.91
29.51
59.74%
ATHM
AutoHome
26.98
0.08
0.30%
TRUE
TrueCar
1.95
-1.49
-43.31%
EVER
EverQuote
25.36
3.68
16.97%

CarGurus Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CarGurus Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting on Key Proposals
Neutral
Jun 5, 2025

On June 4, 2025, CarGurus, Inc. held its annual stockholders meeting to vote on several key proposals. The stockholders elected Class II directors, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as independent auditors, approved executive compensation for 2024, and decided to hold annual advisory votes on executive compensation. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to governance and transparency, potentially impacting its operational strategies and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CARG) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CarGurus stock, see the CARG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 19, 2025