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York Space Systems, Inc.
(NYSE:YSS)
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Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▼(-15.57% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/21/26
YSS scores low primarily due to weak financial quality—ongoing losses and a sharp deterioration in 2025 operating/free cash flow—despite rapid revenue growth and a moderately levered balance sheet. Technicals also weigh heavily given the pronounced downtrend and bearish momentum. The earnings call adds mixed signals: strong pipeline and liquidity, but a significant 2026 guidance cut and continued EBITDA losses.
Positive Factors
Exceptional Revenue Growth
The sharp 2025 revenue increase indicates strong customer demand and expanding program activity. If York can convert this growth into repeat production and follow-on orders, its standardized satellite platforms could support a larger long-term revenue base.
Negative Factors
Persistent Operating Losses
York remains loss-making despite rapid top-line growth, showing that scale has not yet produced durable profitability. Continued negative earnings limit internally funded expansion and increase the importance of improving program economics, pricing, and operating efficiency.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Exceptional Revenue Growth
The sharp 2025 revenue increase indicates strong customer demand and expanding program activity. If York can convert this growth into repeat production and follow-on orders, its standardized satellite platforms could support a larger long-term revenue base.
Read all positive factors
York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.28B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.73
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees710
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.86
Shares Outstanding137,357,600
10 Day Avg. Volume1,011,793
30 Day Avg. Volume1,313,569
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.48
Price to Book (P/B)4.24
Price to Sales (P/S)11.11
P/FCF Ratio-32.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.50Price Target Upside82.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$440.71M
York Space Systems, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
York Space Systems, Inc. operates as a space and defense prime providing a comprehensive suite of mission-critical solutions for national security, government and commercial customers in the United States. It provides space and defense primes with...
How the Company Makes Money
YSS primarily makes money by selling spacecraft (small satellites/satellite buses) and associated mission services under customer contracts, with a strong emphasis on U.S. government and defense-related procurement. Key revenue streams include: (1...
York Space Systems, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: strong execution on launches, on‑orbit operations, an 88% win rate, a large $11.5B pipeline and strategic acquisitions that expand capabilities and market reach. However, a material downward revision to 2026 revenue guidance (midpoint cut of $180M), supply‑chain delays pushing revenue into 2027, higher SG&A/R&D and continued adjusted EBITDA losses create meaningful near‑term headwinds. The company emphasizes positioning for substantial growth in 2027 while acknowledging near‑term recognition and margin pressures.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth in Q2
Q2 revenue of $92.5 million, up $8.7 million or 10% year‑over‑year, driven by revenues from 2025 acquisitions and a new commercial contract.
Negative Updates
Significant 2026 Revenue Guidance Reduction
Full‑year 2026 revenue guidance revised down to $375–$405 million (midpoint $390 million), a $180 million reduction from the prior midpoint of $570 million; management removed ~30% of prior midpoint tied to new business and shifted expected revenue into 2027.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth in Q2
Q2 revenue of $92.5 million, up $8.7 million or 10% year‑over‑year, driven by revenues from 2025 acquisitions and a new commercial contract.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
York lowered full‑year 2026 revenue guidance to $375–$405 million (midpoint $390M), a $180M reduction from the prior midpoint of $570M, citing a shift in U.S. government acquisition to selective IDIQs that has pushed much of the “new business” (about 30% of the prior midpoint) into 2027 and supply‑chain timing that moved additional revenue into next year; gross margin is still expected to remain in the mid‑20% range for the balance of 2026 and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be negatively impacted in H2. Key Q2 metrics cited: revenue $92.5M (+10% YoY), gross margin 24% (up 13 ppt YoY) with gross profit $22.2M, contribution margin 42% (up 18 ppt) with contribution dollars $39.3M, and adjusted EBITDA loss $9.5M. Backlog was $592M (down 8% from Q1, up 9% YTD), potential unawarded contracts exceed $1.85B, and identified pipeline tops $11.5B; York has secured eight contract wins in H1 2026 at an 88% win rate, added four contracts this quarter (including two task orders and an IDIQ add), and expects recent acquisitions (ALL.SPACE, Solestial) to contribute to 2026 revenue (ALL.SPACE ~10–15%) while weighing on H2 adjusted EBITDA. Liquidity as of June 30 was $534M cash plus a $150M revolver ($684M total), noting $155M of cash was used post‑quarter to close ALL.SPACE.York Space Systems, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
26
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 314.24M | 386.20M | 253.53M | 238.10M |
| Gross Profit | 65.40M | 75.46M | 32.42M | 54.90M |
| EBITDA | -136.44M | -18.28M | -46.29M | 1.81M |
| Net Income | -182.68M | -84.54M | -98.91M | -29.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 2.07B | 1.64B | 1.47B | 1.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 534.00M | 162.57M | 104.66M | 81.15M |
| Total Debt | 177.32M | 175.13M | 220.12M | 220.44M |
| Total Liabilities | 324.41M | 633.89M | 624.35M | 514.94M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.75B | 1.01B | 846.33M | 935.68M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -190.07M | -130.19M | 13.57M | -2.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -186.64M | -121.33M | 31.61M | 15.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -29.74M | -25.26M | -18.05M | -62.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 587.77M | 204.29M | 10.00M | 95.47M |
York Space Systems, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $808.81M | 21.62 | 6.14% | ― | 39.47% | 14.43% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
53 Neutral | $10.29B | -277.98 | -0.64% | ― | 1.35% | 94.88% | |
52 Neutral | $139.69M | -24.63 | -3.82% | ― | 15.83% | 6.44% | |
51 Neutral | $26.72B | -28.87 | -35.08% | ― | 2256.89% | -12.66% | |
44 Neutral | $25.22B | -4.29 | -69.71% | ― | -5.17% | -1670.60% | |
42 Neutral | $1.28B | -4.93 | -17.36% | ― | ― | ― |
* General Sector Average
YSS
York Space Systems, Inc.
9.76
-23.85
-70.96%
ECHO
Echostar
85.32
34.45
67.72%
GILT
Gilat
9.95
0.00
0.00%
KVHI
KVH Industries
7.49
1.75
30.49%
VSAT
ViaSat
72.28
41.48
134.66%
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile
62.35
11.92
23.64%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.