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York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS)
NYSE:YSS
US Market
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York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS) AI Stock Analysis

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YSS

York Space Systems, Inc.

(NYSE:YSS)

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Neutral 46 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▼(-5.29% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and a sharp swing to negative operating/free cash flow) and bearish technicals (price well below 20/50/100-day averages). Offsetting these, the latest earnings call provided credible demand and visibility signals (reaffirmed 2026 guidance with backlog coverage, backlog growth, and strong liquidity), but near-term profitability and timing headwinds keep the overall rating below average.
Positive Factors
Backlog and revenue visibility
A backlog of $642.3M with ~70% of 2026 guidance already covered provides multi-quarter revenue visibility. That backlog plus a $187M commercial win creates durable demand predictability, lowering near-term sales risk and supporting planned production scale and follow-on orders.
Negative Factors
Worsening operating cash flow
A sharp cash-flow reversal increases funding and execution risk if sustained; continued negative OCF forces reliance on liquidity or raises dilution/refinancing risk. Persistent cash burn could constrain investment in production scale or require slower organic growth despite backlog.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and revenue visibility
A backlog of $642.3M with ~70% of 2026 guidance already covered provides multi-quarter revenue visibility. That backlog plus a $187M commercial win creates durable demand predictability, lowering near-term sales risk and supporting planned production scale and follow-on orders.
Read all positive factors

York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

York Space Systems, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
York Space Systems, Inc. operates as a space and defense prime providing a comprehensive suite of mission-critical solutions for national security, government and commercial customers in the United States. It provides space and defense primes with...
How the Company Makes Money
YSS primarily makes money by selling spacecraft (small satellites/satellite buses) and associated mission services under customer contracts, with a strong emphasis on U.S. government and defense-related procurement. Key revenue streams include: (1...

York Space Systems, Inc. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
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% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated clear growth momentum: revenue and backlog expansion, strong liquidity, a sizable commercial contract, multiple selective IDIQ awards, and strategic acquisitions to improve vertical integration and expand into adjacent markets. These positives are balanced by near-term margin compression (driven by EAC adjustments and a one-time depreciation), a swing to negative adjusted EBITDA, higher SG&A/R&D from public-company and M&A activities, and supply-chain timing that shifts some revenue into H2. Management maintained full-year guidance and highlighted investments (inventory build, production scaling, and M&A) intended to accelerate future revenue and delivery cadence. On balance, the strategic wins and financial flexibility outweigh short-term profitability and timing headwinds.
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of $116.3M, up $10.1M or 9% year-over-year; quarter ahead of expectations.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Compression
Gross margin fell to 19%, down 4 percentage points year-over-year; gross margin dollars declined to $22.2M from $24.6M (≈-9.8%), driven by EAC adjustments and a non-recurring depreciation expense.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of $116.3M, up $10.1M or 9% year-over-year; quarter ahead of expectations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
York reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $545–$595 million (midpoint $570M, up ~48% YoY at the midpoint) and said ~70% of that guide is already in backlog — backlog was $642.3M (up 18% from $542.6M at 12/31/25) — while noting some Q2 revenue will shift into H2 due to a handful of supplier delays (Q2 could be roughly flat YoY). Management is building inventory (first 20 platforms plus ~11 available) to cut time‑to‑orbit by up to 75% and expects the $187M commercial constellation win to drive significant 2027 revenue (under $30M in 2026). Q1 results supporting the outlook: revenue $116.3M (up $10.1M, +9% YoY), gross margin 19% ($22.2M vs $24.6M a year ago), contribution margin 34% ($40.1M vs $35.3M), adjusted EBITDA -$3.6M (vs $5.5M prior year), cash $655.7M, revolver availability $150M (total liquidity $805.7M), loss per share $1.51 (≈$1.07 of which related to two non‑recurring IPO charges), and Q1 CapEx $2.1M.

York Space Systems, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Despite a sharp 2025 revenue acceleration (+404% YoY), YSS remains loss-making (2025 net margin -21.9%) with an inconsistent margin profile. The balance sheet is a relative strength with substantial equity versus debt and improving leverage (debt-to-equity down to 0.17), but 2025 cash flow weakened materially as operating cash flow and free cash flow swung deeply negative (OCF -$121.3M; FCF -$130.2M), raising execution and funding-risk concerns if sustained.
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
26
Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue221.69M386.20M253.53M238.10M
Gross Profit43.22M75.46M32.42M54.90M
EBITDA-100.26M-18.28M-46.29M1.81M
Net Income-143.34M-84.54M-98.91M-29.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.05B1.64B1.47B1.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments655.69M162.57M104.66M81.15M
Total Debt178.38M175.13M220.12M220.44M
Total Liabilities326.70M633.89M624.35M514.94M
Stockholders Equity1.72B1.01B846.33M935.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-86.60M-130.19M13.57M-2.79M
Operating Cash Flow-84.45M-121.33M31.61M15.70M
Investing Cash Flow-11.08M-25.26M-18.05M-62.85M
Financing Cash Flow588.70M204.29M10.00M95.47M

York Space Systems, Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$835.87M21.247.33%46.26%111.78%
67
Neutral
$10.60B-248.16-0.64%2.67%93.53%
55
Neutral
$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
53
Neutral
$180.55M-35.00-3.82%7.22%46.78%
50
Neutral
$22.89B-32.77-32.33%1732.08%11.19%
46
Neutral
$1.94B-8.82-17.02%
44
Neutral
$24.37B168.13-69.81%-5.60%-6044.89%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
YSS
York Space Systems, Inc.
15.31
-18.30
-54.45%
ECHO
Echostar
91.60
64.61
239.38%
GILT
Gilat
11.91
2.76
30.16%
KVHI
KVH Industries
9.30
4.08
78.16%
VSAT
ViaSat
86.16
58.34
209.71%
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile
70.31
18.52
35.76%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 30, 2026