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York Space Systems, Inc.
(NYSE:YSS)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▼(-5.29% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and a sharp swing to negative operating/free cash flow) and bearish technicals (price well below 20/50/100-day averages). Offsetting these, the latest earnings call provided credible demand and visibility signals (reaffirmed 2026 guidance with backlog coverage, backlog growth, and strong liquidity), but near-term profitability and timing headwinds keep the overall rating below average.
Positive Factors
Backlog and revenue visibility
A backlog of $642.3M with ~70% of 2026 guidance already covered provides multi-quarter revenue visibility. That backlog plus a $187M commercial win creates durable demand predictability, lowering near-term sales risk and supporting planned production scale and follow-on orders.
Negative Factors
Worsening operating cash flow
A sharp cash-flow reversal increases funding and execution risk if sustained; continued negative OCF forces reliance on liquidity or raises dilution/refinancing risk. Persistent cash burn could constrain investment in production scale or require slower organic growth despite backlog.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and revenue visibility
A backlog of $642.3M with ~70% of 2026 guidance already covered provides multi-quarter revenue visibility. That backlog plus a $187M commercial win creates durable demand predictability, lowering near-term sales risk and supporting planned production scale and follow-on orders.
Read all positive factors
York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.94B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.62
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees710
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.55
Shares Outstanding131,398,040
10 Day Avg. Volume1,011,793
30 Day Avg. Volume1,313,569
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.48
Price to Book (P/B)4.24
Price to Sales (P/S)11.11
P/FCF Ratio-32.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.00Price Target Upside115.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$557.65M
York Space Systems, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
York Space Systems, Inc. operates as a space and defense prime providing a comprehensive suite of mission-critical solutions for national security, government and commercial customers in the United States. It provides space and defense primes with...
How the Company Makes Money
YSS primarily makes money by selling spacecraft (small satellites/satellite buses) and associated mission services under customer contracts, with a strong emphasis on U.S. government and defense-related procurement. Key revenue streams include: (1...
York Space Systems, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated clear growth momentum: revenue and backlog expansion, strong liquidity, a sizable commercial contract, multiple selective IDIQ awards, and strategic acquisitions to improve vertical integration and expand into adjacent markets. These positives are balanced by near-term margin compression (driven by EAC adjustments and a one-time depreciation), a swing to negative adjusted EBITDA, higher SG&A/R&D from public-company and M&A activities, and supply-chain timing that shifts some revenue into H2. Management maintained full-year guidance and highlighted investments (inventory build, production scaling, and M&A) intended to accelerate future revenue and delivery cadence. On balance, the strategic wins and financial flexibility outweigh short-term profitability and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of $116.3M, up $10.1M or 9% year-over-year; quarter ahead of expectations.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Compression
Gross margin fell to 19%, down 4 percentage points year-over-year; gross margin dollars declined to $22.2M from $24.6M (≈-9.8%), driven by EAC adjustments and a non-recurring depreciation expense.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of $116.3M, up $10.1M or 9% year-over-year; quarter ahead of expectations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
York reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $545–$595 million (midpoint $570M, up ~48% YoY at the midpoint) and said ~70% of that guide is already in backlog — backlog was $642.3M (up 18% from $542.6M at 12/31/25) — while noting some Q2 revenue will shift into H2 due to a handful of supplier delays (Q2 could be roughly flat YoY). Management is building inventory (first 20 platforms plus ~11 available) to cut time‑to‑orbit by up to 75% and expects the $187M commercial constellation win to drive significant 2027 revenue (under $30M in 2026). Q1 results supporting the outlook: revenue $116.3M (up $10.1M, +9% YoY), gross margin 19% ($22.2M vs $24.6M a year ago), contribution margin 34% ($40.1M vs $35.3M), adjusted EBITDA -$3.6M (vs $5.5M prior year), cash $655.7M, revolver availability $150M (total liquidity $805.7M), loss per share $1.51 (≈$1.07 of which related to two non‑recurring IPO charges), and Q1 CapEx $2.1M.York Space Systems, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
26
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 221.69M | 386.20M | 253.53M | 238.10M |
| Gross Profit | 43.22M | 75.46M | 32.42M | 54.90M |
| EBITDA | -100.26M | -18.28M | -46.29M | 1.81M |
| Net Income | -143.34M | -84.54M | -98.91M | -29.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 2.05B | 1.64B | 1.47B | 1.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 655.69M | 162.57M | 104.66M | 81.15M |
| Total Debt | 178.38M | 175.13M | 220.12M | 220.44M |
| Total Liabilities | 326.70M | 633.89M | 624.35M | 514.94M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.72B | 1.01B | 846.33M | 935.68M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -86.60M | -130.19M | 13.57M | -2.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -84.45M | -121.33M | 31.61M | 15.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.08M | -25.26M | -18.05M | -62.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 588.70M | 204.29M | 10.00M | 95.47M |
York Space Systems, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $835.87M | 21.24 | 7.33% | ― | 46.26% | 111.78% | |
67 Neutral | $10.60B | -248.16 | -0.64% | ― | 2.67% | 93.53% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
53 Neutral | $180.55M | -35.00 | -3.82% | ― | 7.22% | 46.78% | |
50 Neutral | $22.89B | -32.77 | -32.33% | ― | 1732.08% | 11.19% | |
46 Neutral | $1.94B | -8.82 | -17.02% | ― | ― | ― | |
44 Neutral | $24.37B | 168.13 | -69.81% | ― | -5.60% | -6044.89% |
* General Sector Average
YSS
York Space Systems, Inc.
15.31
-18.30
-54.45%
ECHO
Echostar
91.60
64.61
239.38%
GILT
Gilat
11.91
2.76
30.16%
KVHI
KVH Industries
9.30
4.08
78.16%
VSAT
ViaSat
86.16
58.34
209.71%
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile
70.31
18.52
35.76%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.