AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $38.03B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 15.84M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.52
• Revenue Growth: 641.24%
• EPS Growth: 41.70%
• Country: US
• Employees: 578
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Communication Equipment
• EPS (TTM): -0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 278,010,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,936,815
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,835,668
• PEG Ratio: -0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 737.88
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.18K
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -2.84K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -112.46
• 1Y Price Target: $91.68
• Price Target Upside: -11.42% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.9
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $213.95M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $109.00 ▲(5.31% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—large operating losses and intensifying cash burn despite strong revenue growth—plus a loss-driven valuation profile (negative P/E, no dividend). These negatives are partially offset by very strong technical momentum and a generally positive earnings-call outlook supported by major commercial commitments, liquidity, and deployment guidance, albeit with execution and cost risks.

Positive Factors

Contracted MNO Revenue

Over $1B of contracted commitments provides durable validation from mobile network operators, anchoring a wholesale revenue model. Multi-year partner commitments increase predictability of future cash flows as the constellation scales, and strengthen AST's distribution pathway to monetize direct-to-device coverage.

Strong Liquidity Runway

A $3.2B cash and liquidity position gives the company a multi-quarter runway to fund manufacturing, launches, and integration without immediate refinancing. For a capital-intensive satellite rollout, this materially lowers near-term funding risk and supports executing the planned deployment cadence.

Manufacturing & Launch Progress

Demonstrated manufacturing scale and a defined launch cadence are critical for achieving usable coverage and capacity. Progress toward producing 40 satellites and frequent launches improves the odds of meeting contractual service commitments and converting operator agreements into recurring revenue streams.

Negative Factors

High Cash Burn

Sustained negative operating cash flow and a near-$1B TTM free cash flow deficit reflect steep ongoing investment needs. If revenue ramp stalls, the structural cash burn could force additional financing or slower deployment, increasing dilution risk and pressuring long-term sustainability despite current liquidity.

Persistently Negative Profitability

Deep negative gross profit and large operating losses indicate unit economics are currently unfavorable. Scaling revenue alone may not restore profitability if costs and COGS remain high, so long-term viability depends on sustained margin improvement through lower manufacturing/operational costs or higher-yield contracts.

Rising Leverage & Complex Capital Structure

A substantial increase in debt and new convertible issuances adds leverage and potential dilution. Secured facilities tied to subsidiaries and convertible notes maturing years out create covenant and structural complexity that could constrain flexibility, raise refinancing risk, and impact cash available for operations if execution slips.

AST SpaceMobile Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. operates space-based cellular broadband network for mobile phones. Its SpaceMobile service provides mobile broadband services for users traveling in and out of areas without terrestrial mobile services on land, at sea, or in flight. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

AST SpaceMobile makes money primarily through partnerships with mobile network operators (MNOs) who pay for access to its satellite network to enhance their service offerings. The company enters into agreements with MNOs, allowing them to use its satellite infrastructure to provide broader and more reliable coverage to their customers. This model allows AST SpaceMobile to earn revenue through service fees or revenue-sharing agreements with these operators. Additionally, the company may explore direct service offerings and strategic partnerships to expand its revenue streams as its network becomes operational.

AST SpaceMobile Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Despite sharp TTM revenue growth (~279% to ~$18.5M), fundamentals are dominated by severe losses (TTM EBIT ~-$266M, net loss ~-$304M), negative gross profit, and very heavy cash burn (TTM FCF ~-$916M). The equity base is sizable, but debt has risen materially (~$722M TTM) and returns remain strongly negative.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue accelerated sharply to $18.5M (up ~279%), but profitability is deeply negative: gross profit is negative and operating losses remain extremely large (TTM EBIT of about -$266M and net loss of about -$304M). Margins have deteriorated meaningfully versus earlier years, indicating costs are scaling far faster than revenue at this stage.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a sizable equity base (TTM equity of ~$1.24B vs. total assets of ~$2.55B), which provides funding capacity. However, debt has risen materially (TTM total debt of ~$722M vs. ~$173M in 2024), and returns on equity are strongly negative due to sustained losses—highlighting ongoing dependence on external capital while the business is not yet profitable.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains weak, with negative operating cash flow across all periods and a particularly large TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow deficit (~-$916M). While reported free cash flow growth is positive in the TTM period, the absolute cash burn is intensifying, and operating cash flow continues to trail net income in a way that underscores heavy ongoing cash investment needs.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	18.53M	4.42M	0.00	13.82M	12.40M	5.97M
Gross Profit	-14.18M	4.42M	0.00	7.11M	4.84M	2.94M
EBITDA	-358.70M	-442.98M	-162.02M	-97.57M	-83.83M	-23.47M
Net Income	-303.83M	-300.08M	-87.56M	-31.64M	-30.55M	-24.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.55B	954.56M	360.89M	438.37M	443.94M	99.64M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.20B	564.99M	85.62M	238.59M	321.79M	42.78M
Total Debt	722.48M	173.00M	72.87M	12.77M	13.16M	7.04M
Total Liabilities	924.88M	285.42M	147.33M	78.55M	91.96M	19.66M
Stockholders Equity	1.24B	479.12M	98.99M	133.53M	100.28M	77.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-916.00M	-300.27M	-267.75M	-213.75M	-134.89M	-53.21M
Operating Cash Flow	-164.93M	-126.14M	-148.94M	-156.46M	-80.09M	-22.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-779.04M	-174.13M	-118.81M	-31.35M	-54.79M	-30.40M
Financing Cash Flow	1.65B	779.97M	116.73M	102.34M	416.94M	69.66M

AST SpaceMobile Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 103.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 103.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.88, above the 50-day MA of 84.97, and above the 200-day MA of 57.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 7.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ASTS.

AST SpaceMobile Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GILT	70 Outperform	$1.37B	45.84	6.95%	―	29.67%	41.90%
ERIC	70 Outperform	$37.03B	12.80	―	2.51%	1.04%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
ASTS	60 Neutral	$38.03B	―	-39.22%	―	641.24%	41.70%
NOK	59 Neutral	$37.95B	51.03	3.20%	2.26%	5.05%	115.92%
VSAT	58 Neutral	$5.37B	-9.91	-11.04%	―	1.23%	-31.80%
SATS	54 Neutral	$31.87B	-2.46	-98.16%	―	-44.95%	-430.47%

AST SpaceMobile Corporate Events

AST SpaceMobile Approves Amended Incentive Award Plan

On November 21, 2025, AST SpaceMobile held a Special Meeting of Stockholders where the stockholders voted on a proposal to approve an amended and restated 2024 Incentive Award Plan. The proposal aimed to increase the number of Class A Common Stock shares available for issuance and extend the plan’s term. The meeting saw participation from 80.2% of the total voting power, and the plan was approved with a significant majority.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Hold with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Reports Strong Q3 2025 Progress

AST SpaceMobile announced significant progress in its third-quarter 2025 business update, highlighting over $1 billion in contracted revenue commitments and strategic partnerships with Verizon and stc Group. The company is advancing towards a commercial service rollout with plans for multiple satellite launches, aiming for 100% geographical coverage in the continental United States and further expansions in Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the UK by early 2026. AST SpaceMobile’s robust financial position, with $3.2 billion in cash and liquidity, supports its ambitious satellite deployment and network integration efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Hold with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Secures $420 Million Loan Agreement

On October 31, 2025, BackstopCo, a subsidiary of AST & Science, LLC, entered into a loan agreement with UBS AG for a $420 million cash collateralized term loan facility. The loan, which bears interest at a floating rate and matures by October 31, 2028, is secured by a first-priority lien on BackstopCo’s assets and includes various covenants and default conditions. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is not liable for the loan, and AST LLC is a limited guarantor only under specific adverse conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Hold with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.