AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.08B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 10.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.76
• Revenue Growth: 249.43%
• EPS Growth: -50.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 578
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Communication Equipment
• EPS (TTM): -0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 269,127,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,363,178
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,098,268
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.62
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.28K
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -328.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -23.23
• 1Y Price Target: $55.82
• Price Target Upside: 15.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

AST SpaceMobile's overall score reflects a company with promising strategic initiatives but facing significant financial and operational challenges. The financial performance is notably weak, characterized by negative profitability and cash flow issues. Technical indicators suggest some upward momentum, but valuation metrics and regulatory hurdles present concerns. Despite these challenges, positive developments in strategic partnerships and a solid cash position offer potential upside.

Positive Factors

Launch Strategy

ASTS has secured an agreement with Blue Origin to handle the launch of up to 45 BB2 satellites, showcasing a strong partnership with a major space player.

Partnerships

Partnerships with 50 mobile network operators cover nearly 3 billion subscribers, including major cellular providers like AT&T, Verizon Wireless, Vodafone, Rakuten, and Bell Canada.

Technology and Innovation

The highly specialized RF technology developed by ASTS, protected by thousands of patents, represents a formidable barrier to entry for competitors.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

2Q revenue slightly below estimates, with 2Q25 revenues of $1.2mn versus BofA and Street estimates of $1.5mn and $7.0mn, respectively.

Launch Delays

The delay of the initial Block 2 BlueBird launch will in-turn provide the risk of delays for the manufacturing of more Block 2 BlueBird satellites and the subsequent launch of the full constellation.

Valuation Risks

AST shares trade at 31 times the revenue estimate, indicating high valuation risks.

AST SpaceMobile Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is a satellite communications company focused on building the first and only space-based cellular broadband network accessible directly by standard mobile phones. Operating within the telecommunications and aerospace sectors, the company's core product is its satellite network, designed to provide seamless mobile connectivity across the globe, especially in underserved and remote areas. AST SpaceMobile aims to eliminate coverage gaps and enhance connectivity for users worldwide.

How the Company Makes Money

AST SpaceMobile makes money primarily through partnerships with mobile network operators (MNOs) who pay for access to its satellite network to enhance their service offerings. The company enters into agreements with MNOs, allowing them to use its satellite infrastructure to provide broader and more reliable coverage to their customers. This model allows AST SpaceMobile to earn revenue through service fees or revenue-sharing agreements with these operators. Additionally, the company may explore direct service offerings and strategic partnerships to expand its revenue streams as its network becomes operational.

AST SpaceMobile Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AST SpaceMobile faces significant financial challenges. Despite some strengths in the balance sheet with low debt levels, the company struggles with profitability and cash flow. The income statement shows deeply negative net profit margins, and cash flows are persistently negative, indicating operational inefficiencies and reliance on external financing.

Income Statement

AST SpaceMobile's income statement reveals significant challenges in profitability. With a consistent negative EBIT and EBITDA, the company struggles with operational efficiency. Revenue growth is volatile, and net profit margins are deeply negative, indicating high expenses relative to revenue. The gross profit margin appears positive for the latest period but is overshadowed by the substantial net losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a mixed picture of financial stability. The company has a favorable equity ratio with significant stockholders' equity and low debt levels, but the high net debt position indicates reliance on external financing. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the consistent erosion of equity through net losses presents a risk to long-term financial health.

Cash Flow

AST SpaceMobile faces cash flow challenges with persistently negative free cash flow, indicating that operational and capital expenditures exceed cash generated from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, showcasing inefficiencies in converting profits into cash. Despite high financing cash flow, the company's free cash flow remains significantly negative, highlighting cash management issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.89M	4.42M	0.00	13.82M	12.40M	5.97M
Gross Profit	-34.03M	4.42M	0.00	7.11M	4.84M	2.94M
EBITDA	-480.53M	-442.98M	-166.53M	-97.57M	-83.83M	-23.47M
Net Income	-352.90M	-300.08M	-87.56M	-31.64M	-18.97M	-24.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.88B	954.56M	360.89M	438.37M	443.94M	99.64M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	923.65M	564.99M	85.62M	238.59M	321.79M	42.78M
Total Debt	23.10M	173.00M	72.87M	12.53M	13.16M	7.04M
Total Liabilities	723.61M	285.42M	147.33M	78.55M	91.96M	19.66M
Stockholders Equity	1.16B	479.12M	98.99M	133.53M	100.28M	77.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-676.87M	-300.27M	-267.75M	-213.75M	-134.89M	-53.21M
Operating Cash Flow	-133.89M	-126.14M	-148.94M	-156.46M	-80.09M	-22.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-542.98M	-174.13M	-118.81M	-31.35M	-54.79M	-30.41M
Financing Cash Flow	1.33B	779.97M	116.73M	102.34M	416.94M	69.66M

AST SpaceMobile Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 48.25
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.85, below the 50-day MA of 49.66, and above the 200-day MA of 31.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTS.

AST SpaceMobile Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DGII	78 Outperform	$1.26B	29.86	7.21%	―	-2.37%	147.46%
CIEN	71 Outperform	$12.93B	127.44	3.71%	―	2.86%	-29.92%
LITE	65 Neutral	$8.71B	528.50	2.48%	―	21.03%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.62B	7.50	-10.94%	1.87%	8.86%	-10.27%
VSAT	60 Neutral	$4.14B	―	-12.48%	―	-1.43%	43.14%
ASTS	54 Neutral	$18.08B	―	-69.70%	―	249.43%	-50.21%
SATS	50 Neutral	$14.64B	―	-1.60%	―	-35.86%	85.81%

AST SpaceMobile Corporate Events

AST SpaceMobile Reports 2024 Financial Results and Growth

AST SpaceMobile announced its business update and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, highlighting significant advancements in its commercialization efforts and strategic agreements. The company secured a long-term commercial agreement with Vodafone and a $43 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency, enhancing its market position in the direct-to-device satellite communications industry. AST SpaceMobile also achieved operational status for its first five BlueBird satellites and is accelerating satellite manufacturing to expand its network. Financially, the company reported nearly $1 billion in cash and a decrease in operating expenses, positioning it well for future growth.