AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
NASDAQ:ASTS
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AST SpaceMobile
(NASDAQ:ASTS)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$85.00
▼(-11.88% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and very negative free cash flow) and limited valuation support (negative P/E, no dividend). Offsetting factors are a stronger balance sheet and a constructive earnings-call outlook featuring strong liquidity, sizable contracted commitments, and ambitious 2026 revenue guidance; technicals are mixed with near-term weakness but longer-term trend support.
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity
A pro forma cash balance near $3.9B and large 2025 financings give AST multi-quarter funding runway to build satellites and pay launch costs. This materially reduces near-term financing risk, enabling planned manufacturing and launches while management executes commercial rollouts and regulatory steps.
Negative Factors
Large cash burn & losses
Very large 2025 net losses and deeply negative free cash flow reflect ongoing investment ahead of scale. Persistent cash burn requires continual access to capital markets, increases dilution and refinancing risk, and means profitability is contingent on executing launches, commercial uptake, and material operating leverage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity
A pro forma cash balance near $3.9B and large 2025 financings give AST multi-quarter funding runway to build satellites and pay launch costs. This materially reduces near-term financing risk, enabling planned manufacturing and launches while management executes commercial rollouts and regulatory steps.
Read all positive factors
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$36.85B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.71
Revenue Growth641.24%
EPS Growth41.70%
CountryUS
Employees578
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.18
Shares Outstanding292,637,020
10 Day Avg. Volume12,683,852
30 Day Avg. Volume12,709,282
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.76
Price to Book (P/B)10.10
Price to Sales (P/S)262.16
P/FCF Ratio-16.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue540.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-722.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-99.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$93.78Price Target Upside-2.78% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$180.44M
AST SpaceMobile Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. operates space-based cellular broadband network for mobile phones. Its SpaceMobile service provides mobile broadband services for users traveling in and out of areas without terrestrial mobile services on land, at sea, or in ...
How the Company Makes Money
AST SpaceMobile’s intended revenue model centers on selling wholesale connectivity capacity to mobile network operators (MNOs) rather than marketing service directly to most end users. The core concept is that AST’s satellite constellation would f...
AST SpaceMobile Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and commercial progress — AST moved from pre-revenue to revenue-generating, launched its largest Block 2 satellite (BlueBird 6), secured >$1B of contracted commitments, expanded MNO partnerships, and materially strengthened liquidity (~$3.9B pro forma). Management set clear 2026/2027 revenue ambitions and provided detailed production and launch cadence plans. Offsetting these positives are materially higher operating expenses and capital expenditures, earlier manufacturing cadence challenges (now being addressed), milestone-driven revenue volatility, and potential dilution from convertible financings. On balance, the highlights around revenue generation, funding, technology validation and contract/backlog momentum outweigh the near-term cost and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Became Revenue-Generating; 2025 Revenue at Top of Guidance
AST SpaceMobile reported full-year 2025 revenue of $70.9 million (top end of guidance $50M–$75M) and recognized $54.3 million of revenue in Q4 2025, driven by gateway hardware sales, government milestones and MNO consulting services.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Operating Expense Increase
Non-GAAP adjusted operating expenses in Q4 2025 were $95.7 million versus $67.7 million in Q3 2025, an increase of $28.0 million or approximately +41% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to a $23.4 million increase in adjusted cost of revenues related to gateway deliveries.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Became Revenue-Generating; 2025 Revenue at Top of Guidance
AST SpaceMobile reported full-year 2025 revenue of $70.9 million (top end of guidance $50M–$75M) and recognized $54.3 million of revenue in Q4 2025, driven by gateway hardware sales, government milestones and MNO consulting services.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to full-year 2026 revenue of $150–$200 million (at least double 2025’s $70.9M), a 2027 revenue goal approaching $1 billion, and said commercial service activation is expected in H2 2026; operational targets include deploying 45–60 Block 2 BlueBird satellites in 2026 (management expects ~60 ready-to-ship and ~45 in orbit), using ~12 additional contracted launches (New Glenn enabling up to eight per launch) with cadence every 1–2 months, and extending to ~90 satellites for broader markets; financial and manufacturing guidance includes pro forma cash ≈$3.9 billion (Dec‑31, 2025), having raised >$3.5B in 2025 and ≈$2.2B net from recent convertibles plus ~$706M ATM proceeds, Q4 2025 revenue $54.3M and Q4 capex ~$407M (vs prior guidance $275–325M), average capital cost per satellite of $21–23M for >90 satellites, Q1 2026 adjusted operating expense (ex-cost of revenue) of $70–80M and Q1 capex of $350–425M, Q4 non‑GAAP adjusted operating expenses $95.7M (Q4 adj. OpEx ex‑revenue $66.8M; FY2025 adj. OpEx ex‑revenue $224.8M), manufacturing capacity to support six microns/phase arrays per month and an assembly/integration cadence of six satellites/month in H1 2026 (29 Block 2 in production; 40 micron-equivalent assemblies expected by mid‑2026), over $1 billion (>$1.2B cited) of contracted/minimum committed revenue, access to ~1,150 MHz of tunable low-/mid‑band spectrum (including 45 MHz MSS NA and 60 MHz S‑band rights outside NA), and an IP portfolio of ~3,100 patents/pending.AST SpaceMobile Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 70.92M | 4.42M | 0.00 | 13.82M | 12.40M |
| Gross Profit | 37.89M | 4.42M | 0.00 | 7.11M | 4.84M |
| EBITDA | -369.93M | -442.98M | -162.02M | -97.57M | -83.83M |
| Net Income | -341.94M | -300.08M | -87.56M | -31.64M | -30.55M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.01B | 954.56M | 360.89M | 438.37M | 443.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.34B | 564.99M | 85.62M | 238.59M | 321.79M |
| Total Debt | 2.24B | 173.00M | 72.87M | 12.77M | 13.16M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.62B | 285.42M | 147.33M | 78.55M | 91.96M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.84B | 479.12M | 98.99M | 133.53M | 100.28M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.14B | -300.27M | -267.75M | -213.75M | -134.89M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -71.52M | -126.14M | -148.94M | -156.46M | -80.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.54B | -174.13M | -118.81M | -31.35M | -54.79M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.83B | 779.97M | 116.73M | 102.34M | 416.94M |
AST SpaceMobile Technical Analysis
Positive
96.46
Price Trends
92.35
Positive
84.87
Positive
70.85
Positive
Market Momentum
0.27
Negative
55.62
Neutral
79.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 96.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.82, above the 50-day MA of 92.35, and above the 200-day MA of 70.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTS.
AST SpaceMobile Risk Analysis
AST SpaceMobile disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AST SpaceMobile reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AST SpaceMobile Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $39.67B | 8.84 | 29.57% | 2.51% | 1.04% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.39B | 37.11 | 5.50% | ― | 29.67% | 41.90% | |
63 Neutral | $52.21B | 15.06 | 4.38% | 2.26% | 5.05% | 115.92% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $7.65B | 44.93 | -7.45% | ― | 1.23% | -31.80% | |
54 Neutral | $36.85B | -54.37 | -30.27% | ― | 641.24% | 41.70% | |
46 Neutral | $35.48B | -1.34 | -177.50% | ― | -44.95% | -430.47% |
* Technology Sector Average
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile
96.46
72.32
299.59%
SATS
Echostar
122.82
99.38
423.98%
GILT
Gilat
18.72
12.67
209.42%
ERIC
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson
11.85
4.78
67.59%
NOK
Nokia
9.44
4.62
95.85%
VSAT
ViaSat
56.33
47.51
538.66%
AST SpaceMobile Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
AST SpaceMobile Strengthens Finances and Expands Satellite Constellation
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
AST SpaceMobile reported that 2025 marked its first year as a revenue‑generating business, delivering $70.9 million in full‑year revenue, mainly from mobile network operator partners and U.S. government contracts. The company also repo...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
AST SpaceMobile Repurchases Convertible Notes, Reshapes Capital Structure
Neutral
Feb 23, 2026
On February 20 and February 23, 2026, AST SpaceMobile repurchased about $46.5 million of its 4.25% convertible senior notes due 2032 and $250 million of its 2.375% convertible senior notes due 2032 in privately negotiated deals with certain noteho...
Private Placements and Financing
AST SpaceMobile Raises $1.075 Billion via Convertible Notes
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. disclosed that on February 17, 2026 it issued $1.0 billion of 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2036 in a private offering, followed by the initial purchasers exercising an option on February 19, 2026 to buy an additional $7...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
AST SpaceMobile Completes Major Convertible Notes Financing
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, AST SpaceMobile completed a $1.0 billion private offering of 2.25% convertible senior notes due 2036, issuing unsecured debt with a 2.25% coupon and an initial conversion price set at a 20% premium to its February 11, 2026 sh...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AST SpaceMobile Announces New Notes and Equity Offerings
Negative
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, AST SpaceMobile disclosed that it had launched a New Notes Offering and a Registered Direct Offering alongside a planned repurchase of portions of its 4.25% and 2.375% convertible notes, moves that underscore its ongoing need...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.