AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $34.98B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 15.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: 641.24%
• EPS Growth: 41.70%
• Country: US
• Employees: 578
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Communication Equipment
• EPS (TTM): -0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 278,010,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,693,948
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,544,311
• PEG Ratio: -0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 737.88
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 716.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -936.16
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -37.02
• 1Y Price Target: $75.51
• Price Target Upside: -20.70% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $265.95M

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $99.00 ▲(3.97% Upside)

The score is constrained primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and heavy free-cash-flow burn) and limited valuation support (negative P/E). These are partially offset by strong technical momentum and a favorable earnings-call backdrop highlighting significant contracted commitments, partnerships, and liquidity—tempered by elevated expense and execution/timeline risk.

Positive Factors

Contracted MNO Revenue

Over $1B of contracted commitments provides durable validation from mobile network operators, anchoring a wholesale revenue model. Multi-year partner commitments increase predictability of future cash flows as the constellation scales, and strengthen AST's distribution pathway to monetize direct-to-device coverage.

Strong Liquidity Runway

A $3.2B cash and liquidity position gives the company a multi-quarter runway to fund manufacturing, launches, and integration without immediate refinancing. For a capital-intensive satellite rollout, this materially lowers near-term funding risk and supports executing the planned deployment cadence.

Manufacturing & Launch Progress

Demonstrated manufacturing scale and a defined launch cadence are critical for achieving usable coverage and capacity. Progress toward producing 40 satellites and frequent launches improves the odds of meeting contractual service commitments and converting operator agreements into recurring revenue streams.

Negative Factors

High Cash Burn

Sustained negative operating cash flow and a near-$1B TTM free cash flow deficit reflect steep ongoing investment needs. If revenue ramp stalls, the structural cash burn could force additional financing or slower deployment, increasing dilution risk and pressuring long-term sustainability despite current liquidity.

Persistently Negative Profitability

Deep negative gross profit and large operating losses indicate unit economics are currently unfavorable. Scaling revenue alone may not restore profitability if costs and COGS remain high, so long-term viability depends on sustained margin improvement through lower manufacturing/operational costs or higher-yield contracts.

Rising Leverage & Complex Capital Structure

A substantial increase in debt and new convertible issuances adds leverage and potential dilution. Secured facilities tied to subsidiaries and convertible notes maturing years out create covenant and structural complexity that could constrain flexibility, raise refinancing risk, and impact cash available for operations if execution slips.

AST SpaceMobile Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. operates space-based cellular broadband network for mobile phones. Its SpaceMobile service provides mobile broadband services for users traveling in and out of areas without terrestrial mobile services on land, at sea, or in flight. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

AST SpaceMobile makes money primarily through partnerships with mobile network operators (MNOs) who pay for access to its satellite network to enhance their service offerings. The company enters into agreements with MNOs, allowing them to use its satellite infrastructure to provide broader and more reliable coverage to their customers. This model allows AST SpaceMobile to earn revenue through service fees or revenue-sharing agreements with these operators. Additionally, the company may explore direct service offerings and strategic partnerships to expand its revenue streams as its network becomes operational.

AST SpaceMobile Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AST SpaceMobile faces significant financial challenges. Despite some strengths in the balance sheet with low debt levels, the company struggles with profitability and cash flow. The income statement shows deeply negative net profit margins, and cash flows are persistently negative, indicating operational inefficiencies and reliance on external financing.

Income Statement

AST SpaceMobile's income statement reveals significant challenges in profitability. With a consistent negative EBIT and EBITDA, the company struggles with operational efficiency. Revenue growth is volatile, and net profit margins are deeply negative, indicating high expenses relative to revenue. The gross profit margin appears positive for the latest period but is overshadowed by the substantial net losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a mixed picture of financial stability. The company has a favorable equity ratio with significant stockholders' equity and low debt levels, but the high net debt position indicates reliance on external financing. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the consistent erosion of equity through net losses presents a risk to long-term financial health.

Cash Flow

AST SpaceMobile faces cash flow challenges with persistently negative free cash flow, indicating that operational and capital expenditures exceed cash generated from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, showcasing inefficiencies in converting profits into cash. Despite high financing cash flow, the company's free cash flow remains significantly negative, highlighting cash management issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	18.53M	4.42M	0.00	13.82M	12.40M	5.97M
Gross Profit	-14.18M	4.42M	0.00	7.11M	4.84M	2.94M
EBITDA	-358.70M	-442.98M	-162.02M	-97.57M	-83.83M	-23.47M
Net Income	-303.83M	-300.08M	-87.56M	-31.64M	-30.55M	-24.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.55B	954.56M	360.89M	438.37M	443.94M	99.64M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.20B	564.99M	85.62M	238.59M	321.79M	42.78M
Total Debt	722.48M	173.00M	72.87M	12.77M	13.16M	7.04M
Total Liabilities	924.88M	285.42M	147.33M	78.55M	91.96M	19.66M
Stockholders Equity	1.24B	479.12M	98.99M	133.53M	100.28M	77.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-916.00M	-300.27M	-267.75M	-213.75M	-134.89M	-53.21M
Operating Cash Flow	-164.93M	-126.14M	-148.94M	-156.46M	-80.09M	-22.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-779.04M	-174.13M	-118.81M	-31.35M	-54.79M	-30.40M
Financing Cash Flow	1.65B	779.97M	116.73M	102.34M	416.94M	69.66M

AST SpaceMobile Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 95.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 95.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.90, above the 50-day MA of 72.30, and above the 200-day MA of 51.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTS.

AST SpaceMobile Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ERIC	74 Outperform	$31.44B	12.63	25.45%	2.51%	1.04%	―
GILT	70 Outperform	$1.23B	43.32	6.95%	―	29.67%	41.90%
NOK	66 Neutral	$36.52B	35.79	4.03%	2.26%	5.05%	115.92%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
ASTS	57 Neutral	$34.98B	-81.31	-39.22%	―	641.24%	41.70%
VSAT	56 Neutral	$5.79B	-11.02	-11.04%	―	1.23%	-31.80%
SATS	54 Neutral	$37.74B	-2.75	-98.16%	―	-44.95%	-430.47%

AST SpaceMobile Corporate Events

AST SpaceMobile Approves Amended Incentive Award Plan

On November 21, 2025, AST SpaceMobile held a Special Meeting of Stockholders where the stockholders voted on a proposal to approve an amended and restated 2024 Incentive Award Plan. The proposal aimed to increase the number of Class A Common Stock shares available for issuance and extend the plan’s term. The meeting saw participation from 80.2% of the total voting power, and the plan was approved with a significant majority.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Hold with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Reports Strong Q3 2025 Progress

AST SpaceMobile announced significant progress in its third-quarter 2025 business update, highlighting over $1 billion in contracted revenue commitments and strategic partnerships with Verizon and stc Group. The company is advancing towards a commercial service rollout with plans for multiple satellite launches, aiming for 100% geographical coverage in the continental United States and further expansions in Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the UK by early 2026. AST SpaceMobile’s robust financial position, with $3.2 billion in cash and liquidity, supports its ambitious satellite deployment and network integration efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Hold with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Secures $420 Million Loan Agreement

On October 31, 2025, BackstopCo, a subsidiary of AST & Science, LLC, entered into a loan agreement with UBS AG for a $420 million cash collateralized term loan facility. The loan, which bears interest at a floating rate and matures by October 31, 2028, is secured by a first-priority lien on BackstopCo’s assets and includes various covenants and default conditions. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is not liable for the loan, and AST LLC is a limited guarantor only under specific adverse conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Hold with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Completes $50M Note Repurchase

On October 29, 2025, AST SpaceMobile completed the repurchase of $50 million of its outstanding 4.25% convertible senior notes due 2032, funded by a direct equity offering of its Class A common stock. Additionally, the company issued $1.15 billion in 2.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2036, including an additional $150 million in Option Notes, enhancing its financial flexibility and potentially increasing its market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Buy with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Secures Major Deal with Saudi Telecom

On October 29, 2025, AST SpaceMobile announced a ten-year commercial agreement with Saudi Telecom Company (STC) to provide direct-to-device satellite mobile connectivity across Saudi Arabia and key regional markets. This partnership includes a $175 million prepayment by STC for future services and aims to deliver 5G and 4G LTE services directly to standard mobile phones, eliminating connectivity gaps without requiring specialized software or device updates. The collaboration will involve building three ground gateways and a Network Operations Center in Riyadh, with commercial services expected to launch in 2026, pending regulatory approvals. This initiative is set to enhance digital inclusion and economic development by expanding mobile coverage to underserved areas, reinforcing STC’s position as a leading digital enabler in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Buy with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Completes $1 Billion Convertible Notes Offering

On October 24, 2025, AST SpaceMobile completed a private offering of $1.0 billion in Convertible Senior Notes due 2036, increasing from the initially announced $850 million. The proceeds, approximately $981.9 million after expenses, are intended for general corporate purposes, including deploying a global satellite constellation to expand its SpaceMobile Service. The Notes, which mature in 2036, are convertible under specific conditions and offer a premium conversion price, reflecting AST SpaceMobile’s strategic financial maneuvers to enhance its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Buy with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.

AST SpaceMobile Announces $850M Convertible Notes Offering

On October 21, 2025, AST SpaceMobile announced its intention to offer $850 million in convertible senior notes due 2036 in a private offering, with the proceeds aimed at funding the deployment of its satellite constellation. Concurrently, the company plans a registered direct offering of its Class A common stock to repurchase up to $50 million of its existing convertible notes, potentially impacting the trading prices of its stock and notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTS) stock is a Sell with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AST SpaceMobile stock, see the ASTS Stock Forecast page.