Lumentum Holdings (LITE)
NASDAQ:LITE
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Lumentum Holdings
(NASDAQ:LITE)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$872.00
▲(5.46% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven by strong technical momentum and a very positive guidance/demand outlook (record results, large backlog, and accelerating AI/cloud-driven ramps). Offsetting that, the financial profile is constrained by high leverage and uneven cash-flow conversion, and valuation is demanding with an extremely high P/E.
Positive Factors
Strategic NVIDIA Partnership & Financing
A $2B financing tied to multiyear purchase commitments secures durable demand and capacity access from a leading AI customer, funds U.S. fab expansion and joint R&D. This materially de-risks funding for scale, aligns roadmap with AI data-center growth, and supports multi-year revenue visibility.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
A debt-heavy capital structure sharply reduces financial flexibility to fund capex, absorb delays or endure downturns. High leverage raises interest and covenant risk, constrains strategic optionality for further inorganic investments, and makes sustained execution and margin stability more critical to avoid balance-sheet stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strategic NVIDIA Partnership & Financing
A $2B financing tied to multiyear purchase commitments secures durable demand and capacity access from a leading AI customer, funds U.S. fab expansion and joint R&D. This materially de-risks funding for scale, aligns roadmap with AI data-center growth, and supports multi-year revenue visibility.
Read all positive factors
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$59.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)88.8
Beta (1Y)2.52
Revenue Growth33.62%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees7,257
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.67
Shares Outstanding71,400,000
10 Day Avg. Volume7,985,649
30 Day Avg. Volume6,910,133
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.41
Price to Book (P/B)5.76
Price to Sales (P/S)3.97
P/FCF Ratio-62.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue29.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit87.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda191.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$679.40Price Target Upside-17.84% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)7.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.91B
Lumentum Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates in two segments, Optical Communications (OpComms) and Commercial Lasers (Laser...
How the Company Makes Money
Lumentum makes money primarily by selling photonics components, subsystems, and modules to equipment makers and large technology customers. A key revenue stream comes from its Optical Communications segment, where it sells products such as coheren...
Lumentum Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
How sales split across Lumentum’s product lines and end markets, showing which businesses drive growth, profit margins, and sensitivity to demand cycles. Segment mix reveals whether the company depends more on telecom and data‑center optics, which can be cyclical, or on commercial lasers and sensing, which may offer different growth and margin profiles — changes in the mix can signal margin pressure or faster expansion opportunities.
How sales split across Lumentum’s product lines and end markets, showing which businesses drive growth, profit margins, and sensitivity to demand cycles. Segment mix reveals whether the company depends more on telecom and data‑center optics, which can be cyclical, or on commercial lasers and sensing, which may offer different growth and margin profiles — changes in the mix can signal margin pressure or faster expansion opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLumentum Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive on execution and demand: record revenue, very large year-over-year growth, substantial margin expansion, a sizable OCS backlog (> $400M), accelerating transceiver momentum (1.6T), and visible progress on indium phosphide capacity all point to durable growth driven by cloud/AI adoption. Lumentum also disclosed several operational and timing challenges — notably wafer and factory capacity constraints, a 25%–30% supply shortfall, reliance on a few large customers, some program timing pushes, and the need to expand contract manufacturing — which introduce execution risk. On balance, the highlights (record financials, large multi‑year addressable markets, strong backlog and margin leverage) meaningfully outweigh the lowlights, though supply and execution remain the principal risks to sustaining the trajectory.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Guidance
Q2 revenue of $665.5M set a company record and represented over 65% year-over-year growth. Management raised confidence in the near-term outlook and issued Q3 non-GAAP revenue guidance of $780M–$830M (midpoint $805M), implying an ~85%+ year-over-year increase at the midpoint and another new quarterly revenue record.
Negative Updates
Sustained Supply-Demand Imbalance and Capacity Constraints
Management reported a supply-demand gap in indium phosphide/EML production of roughly 25%–30% (undersupplying demand). Several fabs and laser production lines are fully allocated, creating risk in meeting accelerating customer demand and backlog fulfillment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Guidance
Q2 revenue of $665.5M set a company record and represented over 65% year-over-year growth. Management raised confidence in the near-term outlook and issued Q3 non-GAAP revenue guidance of $780M–$830M (midpoint $805M), implying an ~85%+ year-over-year increase at the midpoint and another new quarterly revenue record.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Lumentum guided Q3 FY2026 non‑GAAP revenue of $780–$830 million (midpoint $805M), which would be a new quarterly record and implies an ~85%+ year‑over‑year increase, with non‑GAAP operating margin of 30–31% and diluted non‑GAAP EPS of $2.15–$2.35 (using a 16.5% non‑GAAP tax rate and ~92 million diluted shares); management expects roughly two‑thirds of the sequential revenue gain to come from components and one‑third from systems (transceiver and OCS ramps). For context, Q2 was $665.5M revenue with non‑GAAP gross margin 42.5%, non‑GAAP operating margin 25.2%, non‑GAAP EPS $1.67, non‑GAAP operating profit $167.7M and adjusted EBITDA $198.3M.Lumentum Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.11B | 1.65B | 1.36B | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.71B |
| Gross Profit | 704.00M | 459.90M | 251.50M | 569.00M | 788.60M | 788.60M |
| EBITDA | 322.20M | 106.80M | -81.60M | 188.70M | 482.40M | 482.40M |
| Net Income | 251.60M | 25.90M | -546.50M | -131.60M | 198.90M | 198.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.81B | 4.22B | 3.93B | 4.63B | 4.16B | 3.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.16B | 877.10M | 887.00M | 2.01B | 2.55B | 1.95B |
| Total Debt | 3.35B | 2.61B | 2.56B | 2.87B | 1.94B | 1.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.96B | 3.08B | 2.97B | 3.28B | 2.29B | 1.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 846.60M | 1.13B | 957.30M | 1.36B | 1.88B | 1.97B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 130.30M | -104.70M | -111.30M | 51.30M | 368.10M | 643.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 247.00M | 126.30M | 24.70M | 179.80M | 459.30M | 738.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -305.50M | -84.10M | -114.30M | -874.00M | -226.30M | 1.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 236.50M | 41.80M | -332.70M | 263.00M | 282.90M | -263.40M |
Lumentum Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
826.88
Price Trends
609.00
Positive
467.44
Positive
301.71
Positive
Market Momentum
39.88
Negative
62.35
Neutral
69.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LITE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 826.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 694.21, above the 50-day MA of 609.00, and above the 200-day MA of 301.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 39.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LITE.
Lumentum Holdings Risk Analysis
Lumentum Holdings disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lumentum Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Although we expect that our acquisitions will result in cost savings, synergies, and other benefits, we may not realize those benefits, or be able to retain those benefits even if realized. Q1, 2023
2.
We may be adversely affected by climate change regulations. Q1, 2023
3.
Our financial results may be adversely affected due to changes in product demand impacted by recessions, inflation, stagflation and other economic conditions. Q1, 2023
Lumentum Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $63.31B | 59.35 | 8.26% | ― | 18.79% | 49.53% | |
63 Neutral | $8.54B | -21.27 | -5.44% | ― | 15.60% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $59.04B | 88.82 | 27.64% | ― | 33.62% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $2.06B | 70.53 | 12.12% | ― | 14.31% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $3.04B | -469.76 | -5.77% | ― | 4.24% | -141.83% |
* Technology Sector Average
LITE
Lumentum Holdings
826.88
774.62
1482.24%
CIEN
Ciena
447.76
392.54
710.87%
EXTR
Extreme Networks
15.36
4.27
38.50%
VIAV
Viavi Solutions
36.89
27.00
273.00%
PI
IMPINJ
100.45
30.82
44.26%
Lumentum Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumentum Raises $2 Billion, Deepens NVIDIA Strategic Partnership
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Lumentum completed a $2 billion private placement of 2,876,415 shares of Series A Convertible Preferred Stock to NVIDIA at $695.31 per share, issued under a Securities Purchase Agreement between the companies. The preferred stock...
Executive/Board Changes
Lumentum Announces Chief Accounting Officer Succession Plan
Neutral
Jan 5, 2026
On December 29, 2025, Lumentum Holdings Inc. announced that Chief Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President, Finance, Matthew Sepe plans to retire in fall 2026, and will remain as Senior Vice President, Finance until that time while stepping do...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.