XPEL (XPEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.18B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 236.15K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: 10.29%
• EPS Growth: -3.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,143
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 27,678,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 315,655
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 236,154
• PEG Ratio: 2.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.57
• 1Y Price Target: $55.00
• Price Target Upside: 29.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.07
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $518.18M

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $52.00 ▲(22.01% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is primarily supported by strong financial quality (profitability, cash generation, and low leverage) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook for margin recovery and operating leverage. These strengths are tempered by weak near-term technical momentum and a relatively high P/E without a dividend yield, with modest additional influence from governance-related corporate actions.

Positive Factors

Strong Profitability

Sustained gross margins near 42% and double-digit net margins indicate durable product-level pricing power and efficient cost structure. This margin base supports reinvestment in manufacturing, R&D, and dealer programs, providing resilience through automotive cycles and funding strategic initiatives.

Conservative Balance Sheet

Very low leverage and a growing equity base give the company financial flexibility to fund capex, supply‑chain investments, and selective M&A without high refinancing risk. A conservative balance sheet reduces vulnerability to downturns and preserves optionality for strategic moves.

Solid Cash Generation

Annual OCF substantially exceeding net income demonstrates strong cash conversion and internal funding capacity. Reliable cash generation supports capital allocation (manufacturing, buybacks, M&A) and cushions short-term volatility, underpinning durable investment in growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Decelerating Revenue Growth

A clear slowdown in revenue growth reduces the company’s ability to leverage fixed costs and compress per-unit SG&A over time. Lower top-line momentum limits operating‑leverage upside, raises the bar for acquisitions to meaningfully add growth, and makes margin expansion more dependent on cost control.

Acquisition-Related Margin Pressure

Integrating acquired inventory sold at higher cost creates transitory margin erosion but signals integration risk. If similar acquisitions recur, recurring stepped‑cost effects can delay margin normalization and complicate forecasting, pressuring long‑term margin recovery absent pricing or mix improvement.

Elevated SG&A and Investment Costs

Material increases in SG&A as a percent of sales reduce operating leverage potential and require sustained revenue growth to dilute. Persistently elevated field and M&A-related costs can compress long‑term margins if growth stalls or integration benefits take longer than planned to realize.

XPEL Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPEL, Inc. manufactures, sells, distributes, and installs after-market automotive products. The company offers automotive surface and paint protection films, headlight protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary software. It also provides merchandise and apparel; ceramic coatings; and tools and accessories, which includes squeegees and microfiber towels, application fluids, plotter cutters, knives, and other products. In addition, the company offers paint protection kits, car wash products, after-care products, and installation tools through its website. It sells its products to independent installers and new car dealerships, third-party distributors, and company-owned installation centers, as well as through franchisees and online sales channels. The company serves in the United States, China, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa, and internationally. XPEL, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

XPEL generates revenue primarily through the sale of its protective films and coatings. The company has established a robust distribution network, selling its products to a wide range of automotive dealerships, professional installers, and directly to consumers. Key revenue streams include the sale of paint protection films, window films, and installation services. Additionally, XPEL benefits from recurring revenue through its network of certified installers who use its products, as well as through training and support services. Strategic partnerships with automotive brands and participation in industry events further enhance its visibility and market presence, contributing to its financial performance. The company also engages in international expansion, tapping into new markets to drive growth.

XPEL Financial Statement Overview

Summary

High-quality fundamentals: strong profitability (2024 gross margin ~42%, net margin ~10.8%), solid cash conversion (2024 operating cash flow > net income), and a conservative balance sheet with low leverage (2024 debt-to-equity ~0.09) and strong historical ROE. Offsets are slowing revenue growth and some cash-flow volatility (notably weak 2022 and modest 2025 FCF decline).

Income Statement

XPEL shows strong profitability with healthy margins in the latest years (2024 gross margin ~42% and net margin ~10.8%), and earnings power has generally scaled with revenue over the cycle. Revenue has grown materially from 2020 to 2025, but the growth trajectory is clearly decelerating (2023 ~22% to 2024 ~6% to 2025 ~3%), which reduces forward momentum. Profitability remains solid, though margins appear to have softened from 2023 to 2024, suggesting some mix, pricing, or cost pressure versus peak levels.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage (2024 debt-to-equity ~0.09, improving from ~0.45 in 2021) and a growing equity base, which adds financial flexibility. Returns on equity have been strong historically (roughly ~20% to ~37% across 2021–2024), indicating efficient capital use, though the trend has come down from earlier peak levels. Overall, the company appears well-capitalized with limited debt risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow and free cash flow have grown strongly versus earlier years, and 2024 operating cash flow exceeded net income (coverage ~1.15), indicating good cash conversion. However, cash flow has shown volatility (notably weak cash generation in 2022 with operating cash flow below net income and very low free cash flow), and 2025 free cash flow declined modestly (~-3.9%), which bears monitoring despite the still-healthy absolute level.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	476.20M	420.40M	396.29M	323.99M	259.26M
Gross Profit	201.02M	177.36M	162.41M	127.51M	92.68M
EBITDA	77.40M	69.47M	76.87M	61.21M	44.13M
Net Income	51.23M	45.49M	52.80M	41.38M	31.57M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	382.53M	285.61M	252.04M	193.36M	161.01M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	50.86M	22.09M	11.61M	8.06M	9.64M
Total Debt	22.86M	21.08M	36.06M	42.08M	38.26M
Total Liabilities	92.44M	60.15M	72.05M	68.64M	76.55M
Stockholders Equity	285.19M	225.46M	179.99M	124.72M	84.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	62.93M	41.11M	29.74M	2.50M	10.58M
Operating Cash Flow	66.94M	47.82M	37.38M	12.06M	18.27M
Investing Cash Flow	-33.78M	-18.40M	-26.35M	-14.16M	-56.81M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.66M	-19.25M	-7.26M	602.00K	19.24M

XPEL Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 42.62
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.05, below the 50-day MA of 51.91, and above the 200-day MA of 40.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.02 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XPEL.

XPEL Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XPEL	71 Outperform	$1.18B	23.07	20.26%	―	10.29%	-3.90%
THRM	62 Neutral	$1.00B	55.16	4.44%	―	-0.10%	-53.49%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SMP	53 Neutral	$878.75M	11.29	12.16%	3.32%	23.96%	11.01%
ECX	52 Neutral	$599.33M	-8.62	―	―	6.59%	55.85%
AEVA	48 Neutral	$796.66M	-2.61	-258.38%	―	89.90%	5.13%
FOXF	47 Neutral	$703.93M	-1.29	-23.94%	―	6.23%	-2508.93%

XPEL Corporate Events

XPEL Tightens Governance With Bylaw and Trading Policy Changes

On February 19, 2026, XPEL, Inc. amended its bylaws to tighten rules around director removal, allowing stockholders to remove directors only for cause with a two‑thirds supermajority vote or by a majority vote of the board, a move aimed at promoting board continuity and emphasizing long‑term corporate interests. On the same date, the company updated its insider trading policy to expand blackout periods for key personnel around quarterly earnings, further restricting when they may trade XPEL securities and underscoring a stronger governance and compliance posture.

These governance changes are likely to solidify leadership stability at XPEL while reducing the risk of short‑term pressures on the board and enhancing controls over potential insider trading. The adjustments may reassure long‑term investors and other stakeholders that the company is tightening oversight and aligning internal practices with more stringent corporate governance standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPEL) stock is a Buy with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPEL stock, see the XPEL Stock Forecast page.