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XPEL
(NASDAQ:XPEL)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$56.00
▲(18.32% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/16/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability and a low-risk balance sheet). Technical indicators are largely neutral and do not add strong momentum support, while valuation is mid-range with no dividend yield provided. Corporate events are modestly supportive due to footprint expansion and favorable governance outcomes.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
XPEL's materially lower leverage and meaningful equity growth provide durable financial flexibility. With returns on equity near ~19% TTM and a larger asset base, the company can fund capex, factory buildouts, or absorb shocks without forcing distress financing, supporting multi‑quarter execution.
Negative Factors
Revenue growth deceleration
Top-line weakness reduces operating leverage and heightens execution reliance on product mix and installer pull-through. If revenue growth remains tepid, investments in factories and SG&A could compress margins and slow return on new capacity, affecting multi‑quarter strategic plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
XPEL's materially lower leverage and meaningful equity growth provide durable financial flexibility. With returns on equity near ~19% TTM and a larger asset base, the company can fund capex, factory buildouts, or absorb shocks without forcing distress financing, supporting multi‑quarter execution.
Read all positive factors
XPEL Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Maps where customers are buying XPEL products and services so you can evaluate dependency on core markets (like North America), spot international growth opportunities, and understand risks from regional dealer penetration or economic slowdowns.
Maps where customers are buying XPEL products and services so you can evaluate dependency on core markets (like North America), spot international growth opportunities, and understand risks from regional dealer penetration or economic slowdowns.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyXPEL (XPEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.24B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)261.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.6
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth12.82%
EPS Growth11.76%
CountryUS
Employees1,143
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.92
Shares Outstanding27,560,986
10 Day Avg. Volume303,777
30 Day Avg. Volume261,803
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.23
Price to Book (P/B)4.92
Price to Sales (P/S)2.90
P/FCF Ratio21.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside-4.92% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$523.00M
XPEL Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XPEL, Inc. is a company that develops, manufactures, distributes, and installs a comprehensive range of aftermarket products primarily aimed at protecting and enhancing automotive vehicles, with select offerings for architectural applications. The...
How the Company Makes Money
XPEL primarily makes money by selling protective film and related appearance-protection products through a distribution model to third-party installers, dealers, and distributors. The largest revenue driver is typically product sales—especially pa...
XPEL Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes strong operational and financial momentum—record consolidated margins, a record Water Infrastructure quarter ($97M) with 56% gross margins, robust adjusted EBITDA ($77.6M), sequential improvement in Water Services, and positive Chemical Technology outlook—supported by commercial wins, strategic Northern Delaware acquisitions, reduced SG&A, and an improved liquidity position. Offsetting risks include a short-term operating cash flow drag from higher receivables, a materially higher full-year CapEx outlook ($200M–$250M), elevated D&A, and some Q2 softness and macro/regional uncertainties that management is monitoring. On balance, the positive growth, margin expansion, contract wins, and balance sheet improvement materially outweigh the near-term cash and capital spend headwinds.Positive Updates
Record consolidated gross margin and strong consolidated results
Consolidated gross margins before D&A exceeded 30% for the first time (new all-time high). Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $77.6 million in Q1 (up $13.5 million vs. 2025) and net income increased by $11.5 million; consolidated revenue increased by $19.5 million year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Short-term operating cash flow headwind
Operating cash flow experienced a meaningful short-term drag driven by increased accounts receivable in Q1; management expects AR to cycle through and convert back to cash during the year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record consolidated gross margin and strong consolidated results
Consolidated gross margins before D&A exceeded 30% for the first time (new all-time high). Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $77.6 million in Q1 (up $13.5 million vs. 2025) and net income increased by $11.5 million; consolidated revenue increased by $19.5 million year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised its full‑year Water Infrastructure growth guide to 25–30% year‑over‑year (from 20–25%), reflecting Q1 outperformance when consolidated revenue rose by $19.5M, adjusted EBITDA increased by $13.5M and net income by $11.5M versus 2025, with Water Infrastructure posting record Q1 revenue of ~$97M and 56% gross margin before D&A (consolidated gross margin before D&A exceeded 30% for the first time); Q1 consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $77.6M (above guidance) and management expects Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $77M–$80M, Q2 D&A of ~$47M–$50M (ticking into the low‑$50M range later in the year), interest of ~$4M–$6M per quarter, Water Services Q2 margins ~20–22% (after Q1 revenue up 7% sequentially and Q1 margins 21.8%), Chemical Technology Q1 revenue of $78M with 19% margin and Q2 revenue growth guided +10–15% with margins moving to ~20–21%, while capital guidance was raised to $200–$250M net CapEx for 2026 (Q1 CapEx $78M) including $50–$60M maintenance CapEx, net debt ended the quarter at $196M with >$300M available liquidity, and management noted ~1.4 million barrels/day of produced water managed in Q1 plus recent acquisitions (Northern Delaware: ~4k acres, 30k bpd disposal, 1.8k acre‑ft water rights, 500k barrels storage) that support the upgraded outlook.XPEL Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 489.75M | 476.20M | 420.40M | 396.29M | 323.99M | 259.26M |
| Gross Profit | 208.35M | 201.02M | 177.36M | 162.41M | 127.51M | 92.68M |
| EBITDA | 79.96M | 77.40M | 69.47M | 76.87M | 61.21M | 44.13M |
| Net Income | 52.98M | 51.23M | 45.49M | 52.80M | 41.38M | 31.57M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 394.45M | 391.19M | 285.61M | 252.04M | 193.36M | 161.01M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 45.11M | 50.86M | 22.09M | 11.61M | 8.06M | 9.64M |
| Total Debt | 20.82M | 22.86M | 21.08M | 36.06M | 42.08M | 38.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 101.86M | 106.00M | 60.15M | 72.05M | 68.64M | 76.55M |
| Stockholders Equity | 287.51M | 280.28M | 225.46M | 179.99M | 124.72M | 84.46M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 57.85M | 62.93M | 41.11M | 29.74M | 2.50M | 10.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 71.09M | 66.94M | 47.82M | 37.38M | 12.06M | 18.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.12M | -33.78M | -18.40M | -26.35M | -14.16M | -56.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.06M | -3.66M | -19.25M | -7.26M | 602.00K | 19.24M |
XPEL Technical Analysis
Negative
47.33
Price Trends
45.63
Negative
44.77
Negative
44.71
Negative
Market Momentum
0.31
Positive
42.04
Neutral
12.56
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 47.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.87, above the 50-day MA of 45.63, and above the 200-day MA of 44.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XPEL.
XPEL Risk Analysis
XPEL disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPEL reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
XPEL Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.24B | 23.60 | 19.39% | ― | 12.82% | 11.76% | |
62 Neutral | $826.41M | 18.14 | 6.69% | 3.32% | 18.32% | 45.19% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $1.09B | 48.44 | 3.17% | ― | 5.81% | -53.66% | |
54 Neutral | $1.49B | -8.51 | 691.75% | ― | 103.11% | 7.34% | |
52 Neutral | $696.98M | -2.39 | -36.98% | ― | 4.63% | -19.81% | |
50 Neutral | $406.69M | -7.55 | 4.95% | ― | -0.39% | 57.71% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
XPEL
XPEL
44.49
8.91
25.04%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
37.47
5.36
16.69%
FOXF
Fox Factory Holding
16.99
-11.04
-39.39%
THRM
Gentherm
35.83
5.66
18.76%
AEVA
Aeva Technologies
20.99
-5.78
-21.59%
ECX
ECARX Holdings
1.15
-1.09
-48.66%
XPEL Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
XPEL Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 10, 2026, XPEL, Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, with approximately 85% of eligible shares represented in person or by proxy. Stockholders elected six directors, including Ryan L. Pape and Mark A. Thornton, to one-year te...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
XPEL Expands Global Footprint with Strategic Facility Acquisitions
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 15, 2026, XPEL acquired the San Antonio, Texas storage, fabrication and warehouse complex where it is already a major tenant, paying about $60.4 million for a four-building site totaling roughly 435,000 square feet and planning to consolida...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
XPEL Appoints Mark Thornton to Board of Directors
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
On April 23, 2026, XPEL, Inc. appointed Mark Thornton to its Board of Directors, with his term running until the annual meeting of stockholders scheduled for June 10, 2026. He was also named to the Compensation Committee and the Nominating and Cor...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.