XPEL Inc (XPEL)
NASDAQ:XPEL
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XPEL
(NASDAQ:XPEL)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$49.00
▲(10.96% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (profitability, cash generation, and a low-leverage balance sheet) and a generally positive earnings outlook that points to margin improvement and operating leverage. Offsetting these strengths are currently weak technical momentum (negative MACD, low RSI, and trading below mid-term moving averages) and a valuation that is not especially cheap at a ~27 P/E without a stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
XPEL's very low leverage and a growing equity base provide durable financial flexibility to fund capex, M&A, and working capital needs without stressing cash flow. Strong historical ROE indicates efficient capital use, supporting long-term resilience through cycles and strategic investments.
Negative Factors
Decelerating revenue growth
Revenue growth has meaningfully decelerated over multiple years, reducing the company’s ability to generate operating leverage. Slower top-line momentum increases reliance on margin expansion or cost control to sustain earnings growth and raises execution risk for return-to-trend scenarios.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
XPEL's very low leverage and a growing equity base provide durable financial flexibility to fund capex, M&A, and working capital needs without stressing cash flow. Strong historical ROE indicates efficient capital use, supporting long-term resilience through cycles and strategic investments.
Read all positive factors
XPEL (XPEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.22B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)319.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.9
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth10.29%
EPS Growth-3.90%
CountryUS
Employees1,143
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding27,604,183
10 Day Avg. Volume397,251
30 Day Avg. Volume319,824
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.22
Price to Book (P/B)4.92
Price to Sales (P/S)2.90
P/FCF Ratio21.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$55.00Price Target Upside24.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$518.18M
XPEL Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XPEL, Inc. manufactures, sells, distributes, and installs after-market automotive products. The company offers automotive surface and paint protection films, headlight protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprieta...
How the Company Makes Money
XPEL generates revenue primarily by selling appearance-protection products and related solutions through multiple channels. The largest revenue driver is typically product sales of paint protection film (PPF), which is sold in rolls/kits to indepe...
XPEL Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyXPEL Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: double-digit revenue growth, strong Q4 EBITDA expansion, meaningful contributions from the China acquisition, product-line momentum (window film and insulation), and solid cash generation. Management acknowledged near-term headwinds—EV credit pull-forward impacts, margin pressure from acquired inventory, Canada softness, Latin America transition effects, and seasonal Q1 risks—but provided a clear plan (manufacturing/supply chain investments, refocusing on core products) and expects margin improvement and operating leverage in 2026. On balance, the positive growth, profitability gains, and strategic progress outweigh the transitory and regional challenges.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Annual Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue grew 13.7% and full-year 2025 top-line grew 13.3%, reflecting broad-based growth across channels and geographies.
Negative Updates
EV Tax Credit Pull-Forward Impact
Expiration of EV tax credits led to a pull-forward in demand that negatively affected Q4 demand; management estimates it cost ~$1 million to $2 million of end-product demand from the referral channel alone in Q4.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Annual Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue grew 13.7% and full-year 2025 top-line grew 13.3%, reflecting broad-based growth across channels and geographies.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 revenue of $112–$114 million, noting that outlook assumes the ongoing U.S. trend, continued Canadian softness and Chinese New Year seasonality (Q1 is typically the weakest quarter and March is pivotal for aftermarket demand). They expect Q1 gross‑margin headwinds to abate and for gross margins (Q4 was 41.9%) to improve into Q2, with EBITDA leverage from regional P&L owners budgeted to expand; Q4 EBITDA was $19.6M (up 37.6%) with a 16.0% EBITDA margin (FY EBITDA $77.4M, 16.3% margin), Q4 net income was $13.4M (11% margin) and EPS was $0.48 (FY EPS $1.85). Guidance also assumes a 21% effective tax rate going forward, with Q4 SG&A of $35.7M (29.2% of revenue), operating cash flow of $2.7M in the quarter and $66.9M for the year (~86% of EBITDA), a ~$3M buyback already executed, and a continued appetite for modest leverage to support planned manufacturing/supply‑chain investments (final build/M&A decisions expected around March–April).XPEL Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 476.20M | 420.40M | 396.29M | 323.99M | 259.26M |
| Gross Profit | 201.02M | 177.36M | 162.41M | 127.51M | 92.68M |
| EBITDA | 77.40M | 69.47M | 76.87M | 61.21M | 44.13M |
| Net Income | 51.23M | 45.49M | 52.80M | 41.38M | 31.57M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 391.19M | 285.61M | 252.04M | 193.36M | 161.01M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 50.86M | 22.09M | 11.61M | 8.06M | 9.64M |
| Total Debt | 22.86M | 21.08M | 36.06M | 42.08M | 38.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 106.00M | 60.15M | 72.05M | 68.64M | 76.55M |
| Stockholders Equity | 280.28M | 225.46M | 179.99M | 124.72M | 84.46M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 62.93M | 41.11M | 29.74M | 2.50M | 10.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 66.94M | 47.82M | 37.38M | 12.06M | 18.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -33.78M | -18.40M | -26.35M | -14.16M | -56.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.66M | -19.25M | -7.26M | 602.00K | 19.24M |
XPEL Technical Analysis
Positive
44.16
Price Trends
46.24
Negative
47.39
Negative
41.37
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.64
Negative
56.95
Neutral
79.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.97, below the 50-day MA of 46.24, and above the 200-day MA of 41.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPEL.
XPEL Risk Analysis
XPEL disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPEL reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
XPEL Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.22B | 26.95 | 19.69% | ― | 10.29% | -3.90% | |
62 Neutral | $847.41M | 60.64 | 4.44% | ― | -0.10% | -53.49% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | $787.29M | 10.25 | 11.76% | 3.32% | 23.96% | 11.01% | |
52 Neutral | $374.58M | -8.83 | 20.86% | ― | 6.59% | 55.85% | |
48 Neutral | $832.80M | -5.21 | 9999.00% | ― | 89.90% | 5.13% | |
47 Neutral | $701.02M | -1.34 | -23.94% | ― | 6.23% | -2508.93% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
XPEL
XPEL
44.16
17.90
68.16%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
35.55
13.37
60.26%
FOXF
Fox Factory Holding
16.77
-3.29
-16.40%
THRM
Gentherm
27.76
3.09
12.53%
AEVA
Aeva Technologies
13.23
6.89
108.68%
ECX
ECARX Holdings
1.05
0.05
5.00%
XPEL Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
XPEL Tightens Governance With Bylaw and Trading Policy Changes
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 19, 2026, XPEL, Inc. amended its bylaws to tighten rules around director removal, allowing stockholders to remove directors only for cause with a two‑thirds supermajority vote or by a majority vote of the board, a move aimed at p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.