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XPEL
(NASDAQ:XPEL)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(19.35% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score is primarily driven by solid profitability and a very conservative balance sheet, partially offset by weak recent free cash flow. Earnings-call commentary is supportive (record quarter, improving margins, clear margin roadmap) but tempered by heavy near-term CapEx, start-up costs, and softer Q3 guidance. Technical signals and valuation are both middling and do not materially improve the outlook.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage gives XPEL durable financial flexibility to fund manufacturing build-out, absorb cyclical auto demand swings, and pursue M&A without immediate refinancing pressure. A strong equity base supports shareholder returns while limiting solvency risk during industry downturns.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow
The TTM negative free cash flow reduces financial flexibility and raises reliance on external financing or operating cash to fund heavy investments. Persistently weak FCF could constrain buybacks/dividends and make timing of margin benefits from capex more critical to strategy execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage gives XPEL durable financial flexibility to fund manufacturing build-out, absorb cyclical auto demand swings, and pursue M&A without immediate refinancing pressure. A strong equity base supports shareholder returns while limiting solvency risk during industry downturns.
Read all positive factors
XPEL Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Maps where customers are buying XPEL products and services so you can evaluate dependency on core markets (like North America), spot international growth opportunities, and understand risks from regional dealer penetration or economic slowdowns.
Maps where customers are buying XPEL products and services so you can evaluate dependency on core markets (like North America), spot international growth opportunities, and understand risks from regional dealer penetration or economic slowdowns.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyXPEL (XPEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.35B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)259.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.4
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth13.19%
EPS Growth12.64%
CountryUS
Employees1,337
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.98
Shares Outstanding27,570,747
10 Day Avg. Volume213,169
30 Day Avg. Volume259,839
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.23
Price to Book (P/B)4.92
Price to Sales (P/S)2.90
P/FCF Ratio21.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.67Price Target Upside44.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$523.00M
XPEL Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XPEL, Inc. is a company that develops, manufactures, distributes, and installs a comprehensive range of aftermarket products primarily aimed at protecting and enhancing automotive vehicles, with select offerings for architectural applications. The...
How the Company Makes Money
XPEL primarily makes money by selling protective film and related appearance-protection products through a distribution model to third-party installers, dealers, and distributors. The largest revenue driver is typically product sales—especially pa...
XPEL Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely constructive picture: record revenue, product-line strength, improving margins, record operating cash flow, and a clear multi-year plan to capture manufacturing-driven margin upside. Balanced against these positives were near-term headwinds — regional softness in China and parts of EMEA, dealership/FTC-related selling challenges, increased SG&A and integration/start-up costs, and significant near-term CapEx and debt associated with the manufacturing build-out. Management provided concrete metrics, guidance, and a timeline for benefits from manufacturing (mid‑2027 onward), and emphasized operational discipline (SKU rationalization, working capital focus). On balance, highlights outweigh the lowlights given the record performance, profitability growth, and clear strategic plan to drive future margin expansion.Positive Updates
Record Revenue
Total revenue grew 14.7% year-over-year to a record $143.1 million in Q2 2026; first-half revenue grew 14% versus prior year.
Negative Updates
Guidance and Quarter-to-Quarter Outlook
Q3 revenue guidance is $137 million to $139 million (below Q2), with management noting $1–$2 million of pull‑forward into Q2 and anticipated seasonality (European holidays) and modest Middle East improvements only.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue
Total revenue grew 14.7% year-over-year to a record $143.1 million in Q2 2026; first-half revenue grew 14% versus prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q3 revenue of $137–$139 million (assuming consistent U.S. and APAC trends, normal European seasonality and a modest Middle East improvement, with no assumed recapture) and noted roughly $1–2 million of pull‑forward into Q2; they expect gross margin to modestly increase through year‑end after modest Q3 price increases, see incremental margin benefit from the manufacturing investments beginning mid‑2027, and target a run‑rate operating margin in the mid‑20% range exiting 2028. For context, Q2 was a record $143.1M (+14.7%) with U.S. $78.6M (+11.7%), China $15.9M, Canada +10.8% (≈4% ex timing), India +60% (small base), Europe –2.3% and India/Middle East –5%; product highlights included window film $32.5M (+16.1%, 22.7% of revenue) and installations just over 21% of revenue (+~11%). Profitability and cash metrics: Q2 gross margin 44.1% (Q1 43.7%), EBITDA margin 19.3% (adjusted 20.7%), operating income margin 16.2%, net income margin 12.6%, EPS $0.65 (adj $0.68), record operating cash flow $30.8M; company incurred ~ $0.03/share of manufacturing startup costs in Q2 (expected $0.03–$0.04 in Q3), CapEx was $65.1M in Q2 (incl. the real estate purchase), total manufacturing/real estate investments are ~ $110M, and $44.8M of that real estate was financed with a 10‑year term loan.XPEL Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 508.09M | 476.20M | 420.40M | 396.29M | 323.99M | 259.26M |
| Gross Profit | 217.98M | 201.02M | 177.36M | 162.41M | 127.51M | 92.68M |
| EBITDA | 83.28M | 77.40M | 69.47M | 76.87M | 61.21M | 44.13M |
| Net Income | 54.73M | 51.23M | 45.49M | 52.80M | 41.38M | 31.57M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 472.65M | 391.19M | 285.61M | 252.04M | 193.36M | 161.01M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 40.67M | 50.86M | 22.09M | 11.61M | 8.06M | 9.64M |
| Total Debt | 63.55M | 22.86M | 21.08M | 36.06M | 42.08M | 38.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 154.09M | 106.00M | 60.15M | 72.05M | 68.64M | 76.55M |
| Stockholders Equity | 306.13M | 280.28M | 225.46M | 179.99M | 124.72M | 84.46M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.14M | 62.93M | 41.11M | 29.74M | 2.50M | 10.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 73.99M | 66.94M | 47.82M | 37.38M | 12.06M | 18.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -113.65M | -33.78M | -18.40M | -26.35M | -14.16M | -56.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 31.33M | -3.66M | -19.25M | -7.26M | 602.00K | 19.24M |
XPEL Technical Analysis
Positive
42.73
Price Trends
45.99
Positive
45.32
Positive
46.08
Positive
Market Momentum
1.08
Negative
62.27
Neutral
66.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.55, below the 50-day MA of 45.99, and below the 200-day MA of 46.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPEL.
XPEL Risk Analysis
XPEL disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPEL reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
XPEL Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.35B | 25.39 | 19.15% | ― | 13.19% | 12.64% | |
70 Outperform | $877.30M | 17.01 | 7.36% | 3.31% | 11.32% | 27.67% | |
62 Neutral | $1.27B | 49.62 | 3.69% | ― | 8.68% | -14.53% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
51 Neutral | $912.91M | -2.95 | -40.46% | ― | 1.55% | -18.03% | |
49 Neutral | $1.75B | -112.10 | -210.69% | ― | 56.22% | 93.61% | |
48 Neutral | $374.58M | -20.24 | 18.01% | ― | 10.74% | 85.17% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
XPEL
XPEL
50.00
12.66
33.90%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
38.94
1.98
5.35%
FOXF
Fox Factory Holding
21.02
-8.59
-29.01%
THRM
Gentherm
44.00
8.96
25.57%
AEVA
Aeva Technologies
23.28
10.18
77.71%
ECX
ECARX Holdings
1.07
-0.63
-37.06%
XPEL Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
XPEL Announces Resignation of Board Member Mark Thornton
Neutral
Jul 31, 2026
On July 30, 2026, XPEL, Inc. announced that Board member Mark Thornton resigned from the Board of Directors, effective immediately, due to a new policy adopted by his employer that bars him from serving on external boards. The company emphasized t...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
XPEL Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 10, 2026, XPEL, Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, with approximately 85% of eligible shares represented in person or by proxy. Stockholders elected six directors, including Ryan L. Pape and Mark A. Thornton, to one-year te...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
XPEL Expands Global Footprint with Strategic Facility Acquisitions
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 15, 2026, XPEL acquired the San Antonio, Texas storage, fabrication and warehouse complex where it is already a major tenant, paying about $60.4 million for a four-building site totaling roughly 435,000 square feet and planning to consolida...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.