XPEL (XPEL) AI Stock Analysis

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XPEL

(NASDAQ:XPEL)

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Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:

$41.00

▲(22.86% Upside)

XPEL's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the primary drivers of its overall score. The company's robust revenue growth, profitability, and strategic focus on M&A and product innovation support its upward trajectory. Technical indicators and valuation are moderate, reflecting a balanced risk-reward profile. Challenges in specific markets and rising expenses are noted but do not overshadow the company's strengths.

XPEL (XPEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$949.73M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)197.83K

Price to Earnings (P/E)19.5

Beta (1Y)1.20

Revenue Growth9.96%

EPS Growth2.74%

CountryUS

Employees1,143

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryAuto - Parts

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.59

Shares Outstanding27,672,747

10 Day Avg. Volume169,942

30 Day Avg. Volume197,826

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.78

Price to Book (P/B)4.90

Price to Sales (P/S)2.63

P/FCF Ratio26.85

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.15

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.11

Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.08

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$55.00

Price Target Upside64.82% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

XPEL Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionXPEL, Inc. manufactures, sells, distributes, and installs after-market automotive products. The company offers automotive surface and paint protection films, headlight protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary software. It also provides merchandise and apparel; ceramic coatings; and tools and accessories, which includes squeegees and microfiber towels, application fluids, plotter cutters, knives, and other products. In addition, the company offers paint protection kits, car wash products, after-care products, and installation tools through its website. It sells its products to independent installers and new car dealerships, third-party distributors, and company-owned installation centers, as well as through franchisees and online sales channels. The company serves in the United States, China, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa, and internationally. XPEL, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyXPEL generates revenue through the sale of its protective films and coatings, which are distributed through a network of authorized installers and resellers. The company earns money from direct sales of its products as well as installation services provided by these partners. Key revenue streams include the sale of paint protection films, window tint films, and specialty coatings, which cater to both consumer and commercial markets. Additionally, XPEL benefits from ongoing partnerships with automotive manufacturers and dealerships that incorporate XPEL products into their offerings, further enhancing the company's market reach and sales potential. The company's commitment to innovation also allows it to introduce new products that can drive additional revenue growth.

XPEL Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Product Revenue by Type

Product Revenue by Type
Analyzes revenue from different product lines, providing insight into which products drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments.

Chart InsightsXPEL's Paint Protection Film revenue shows steady growth with occasional dips, while Window Film revenue has surged, driven by new windshield protection products. The latest earnings call highlights a 28.1% growth in the window film line, reflecting strategic success. Despite challenges in Canada and China, strong U.S. and Middle East performance, along with a $50 million share repurchase plan, indicate confidence in future growth. The focus on cost management and strategic investments suggests resilience amid market uncertainties.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

XPEL Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted a record-breaking revenue growth and strong performance across major regions like the U.S. and Canada. There was significant improvement in gross margin and cash flow, alongside successful product lines and momentum in the personalization platform. However, challenges persist in Latin America and with China market strategy, alongside increased SG&A expenses. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Revenue Growth

XPEL reported a record quarter in Q2 with revenue growing 13.5% to $124.7 million, which exceeded expectations.

Strong U.S. and Canada Performance

U.S. region grew 8.4% to $70.4 million for the quarter, setting a new record. Canada region revenue grew 7.4% for the quarter, hitting internal budget targets for July.

Gross Margin Improvement

Gross margin for the quarter came in at 42.9%, up 6 basis points sequentially, with the expectation to trend upward going forward.

EBITDA and Cash Flow Strength

EBITDA grew 14.7% to $25 million. Generated nearly $28 million in operating cash flow, ending the quarter with approximately $50 million in net cash.

Successful Product Lines

Total window film product line grew 27% in the quarter, with automotive window tint growing 22.5% and the new Windshield Protect product contributing.

Personalization Platform Momentum

Personalization platform volume continues to grow substantially, enhancing consumer satisfaction and driving product attachment.

Negative Updates

Challenges in Latin America

Revenue decline in Latin America due to inconsistent timing of revenue in large distributor markets in South America.

China Market Volatility

While China revenue came in at $7.7 million, the market is still finalizing its strategy, indicating ongoing challenges.

Increased SG&A Expenses

SG&A expenses grew 19.3% to $34.2 million, largely driven by overhead from acquisitions and onetime costs.

Company Guidance

During the second quarter of 2025, XPEL, Inc. achieved a record revenue of $124.7 million, marking a 13.5% increase compared to the previous year. The growth was supported by various regional performances, with the U.S. region posting an 8.4% increase to $70.4 million and the Canada region growing by 7.4%. China contributed $7.7 million, reflecting a more stable revenue pattern. Gross margin stood at 42.9%, slightly up from the previous quarter, while SG&A expenses increased by 19.3%, partly due to $1.6 million in onetime costs. EBITDA grew by 14.7% to $25 million, representing 20% of revenue. The company also reported net income growth of 7.8% with an EPS of $0.59, which would have been $0.63 when normalized for onetime costs. Looking forward, XPEL anticipates Q3 revenue to be between $117 million and $119 million. The company is actively engaging in M&A opportunities with $50 million in net cash, focusing on expanding direct sales channels and leveraging its personalization platform to enhance consumer engagement and product attachment rates.

XPEL Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPEL demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and robust profitability. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, and cash flow management is effective. However, slight pressure on operational margins suggests room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Very Positive

XPEL has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 3.41% and strong historical growth. The gross profit margin remains robust at 42.24% TTM, indicating effective cost management. However, there is a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins over the TTM, suggesting potential pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 TTM, reflecting prudent financial leverage. Return on equity is strong at 21.51% TTM, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is solid, indicating a stable financial position.

Cash Flow

Positive

XPEL's cash flow performance is commendable with a free cash flow growth rate of 4.66% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.35 TTM, indicating efficient cash generation. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests a slight decrease in cash conversion efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	448.90M	420.40M	396.29M	323.99M	259.26M	158.92M
Gross Profit	189.03M	177.36M	162.41M	127.51M	92.68M	54.03M
EBITDA	73.79M	69.47M	76.87M	61.77M	40.12M	23.37M
Net Income	48.67M	45.49M	52.80M	41.38M	31.57M	18.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	318.07M	285.61M	252.04M	193.36M	161.01M	83.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	49.59M	22.09M	11.61M	8.06M	9.64M	29.03M
Total Debt	21.76M	21.08M	36.06M	42.08M	38.26M	12.12M
Total Liabilities	62.41M	60.15M	72.05M	68.64M	76.55M	30.46M
Stockholders Equity	255.66M	225.46M	179.99M	124.72M	84.46M	53.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	53.01M	41.11M	29.74M	2.50M	10.58M	16.31M
Operating Cash Flow	57.00M	47.82M	37.38M	12.06M	18.27M	18.47M
Investing Cash Flow	-10.71M	-18.40M	-26.35M	-14.16M	-56.81M	-4.66M
Financing Cash Flow	-11.39M	-19.25M	-7.26M	602.00K	19.24M	3.51M

XPEL Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price33.37

Price Trends

50DMA

35.77

Negative

100DMA

35.59

Negative

200DMA

36.35

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.40

Positive

RSI

38.38

Neutral

STOCH

5.48

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.58, below the 50-day MA of 35.77, and below the 200-day MA of 36.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XPEL.

XPEL Risk Analysis

XPEL disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPEL reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

XPEL Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SMP	80 Outperform	893.80M	13.78	5.72%	3.00%	17.98%	9.41%
XPEL	78 Outperform	$949.73M	19.54	21.27%	―	9.96%	2.74%
THRM	77 Outperform	1.08B	34.76	10.53%	―	-0.78%	-51.80%
PLOW	75 Outperform	748.83M	11.77	24.25%	3.62%	1.47%	131.61%
ADNT	66 Neutral	1.97B	-9.16	-10.92%	―	-3.00%	-447.89%
FOXF	51 Neutral	1.13B	-4.48	-26.32%	―	7.16%	-720.80%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

XPEL

33.37

-9.57

-22.29%

PLOW

Douglas Dynamics

32.50

5.22

19.13%

SMP

Standard Motor Products

40.23

8.08

25.13%

FOXF

Fox Factory Holding

27.00

-12.63

-31.87%

THRM

Gentherm

35.49

-13.59

-27.69%

ADNT

Adient

24.16

2.47

11.39%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 11, 2025