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Ecarx Holdings Inc. (ECX)
NASDAQ:ECX
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ECARX Holdings
(NASDAQ:ECX)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(8.11% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:11/15/25
ECARX Holdings' overall score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges, including negative equity and high leverage. The positive earnings call, highlighting profitability and growth, provides a counterbalance, but valuation concerns and neutral technical indicators limit the score.
Positive Factors
Achieved EBITDA breakeven and first net profit
Reaching EBITDA breakeven and a first net profit demonstrates the business model can scale to profitability. This validates product-market fit, supports sustained reinvestment in R&D and expansion, and materially lowers existential funding pressure versus a perpetual loss-making profile.
Large shipment growth and production scale
Rapid, sizable unit shipment growth and record Antora volumes indicate production scale, stronger OEM adoption, and unit economics improvement. Mass production capacity and rising volumes support operating leverage, recurring hardware revenue, and long-term customer stickiness across vehicle programs.
Large contracted pipeline and strategic partnerships
A multi-billion dollar contracted pipeline and recent strategic investments/partnerships enhance revenue visibility and de-risk commercialization. Long-term contracts with global OEMs plus investor backing enable predictable production ramps, prioritized platform adoption, and support deeper R&D and geographic expansion.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative shareholders' equity and high leverage
Material negative equity and heavy leverage are structural solvency risks: they limit financial flexibility, raise refinancing and covenant risk, increase cost of capital, and constrain strategic optionality if OEM demand softens or cash needs spike during multi-year platform investments.
Weak cash generation and negative free cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow reduces the company's ability to self-fund R&D and capex, forcing reliance on external financing or dilutive transactions. Poor cash conversion heightens funding risk during cyclical auto downturns and limits buffer for multi-year product investments.
Historical unprofitability and margin pressure
A history of large cumulative losses and negative margins signals execution and unit-margin challenges before recent improvement. Legacy losses strain retained capital, heighten dependence on contracts and investors, and mean future profitability must persist to offset past deficits and justify continued investment.
ECARX Holdings (ECX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$556.52M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.78M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.82
Revenue Growth6.59%
EPS Growth55.85%
CountryUS
Employees1,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding310,785,220
10 Day Avg. Volume3,409,317
30 Day Avg. Volume3,783,346
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)-2.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap11.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-217.81
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.16B
ECARX Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionECARX Holdings, Inc. engages in the design, development, and delivery of vehicle technology. Its products include infotainment head units, digital cockpits, vehicle chip-set, operating system and software stack. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Shanghai, China with an additional office in Europe.
How the Company Makes MoneyECARX generates revenue through multiple streams, including the sale of its hardware and software solutions to automotive manufacturers and suppliers. The company's primary revenue model is based on licensing its technology for use in vehicles, which includes infotainment systems and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). Additionally, ECARX earns revenue through partnerships with automotive OEMs (original equipment manufacturers), where it provides integrated solutions tailored to specific vehicle models. The company also explores revenue opportunities in data analytics and subscription services related to its connected vehicle offerings, further enhancing its earnings potential.
ECARX Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Reveals how much money each segment retains after direct costs, highlighting which products or services generate scalable profits—software platforms and recurring services typically show higher margins than one-time hardware sales. A growing share of high-margin software revenue at ECARX would point to more durable earnings and less sensitivity to component-cost swings.
Reveals how much money each segment retains after direct costs, highlighting which products or services generate scalable profits—software platforms and recurring services typically show higher margins than one-time hardware sales. A growing share of high-margin software revenue at ECARX would point to more durable earnings and less sensitivity to component-cost swings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyECARX Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive tone driven by record quarterly revenue, sequential profitability (net income, operating income, adjusted EBITDA), strong shipment and platform adoption metrics, significant capital raises, and an ambitious 2026 revenue guidance (+20% to +30% YoY). The main negatives were supply-chain and memory cost pressures, expected Q1 seasonality with potential near-term demand softness (~20% auto wholesale decline cited), possible gross-margin compression (guidance to 15%–18%), and relatively small software/service revenue today. On balance, the company presented strong operational momentum and financial durability while acknowledging manageable near-term risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Q4 Revenue and YoY Growth
Q4 revenue of $305,000,000, up 13% year over year, the highest quarterly revenue in company history; full-year 2025 revenue of $848,000,000, up 10% year over year.
Return to Profitability and Margin Improvement
Q4 net income of $2,800,000, operating income of $7,000,000 (a 155% improvement YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $22,000,000 (up from $10,000,000 in Q4 last year), and Q4 gross profit of $64,000,000 (up 11% YoY) with a 21% gross margin.
Strong Product Adoption and Shipment Growth
Shipped approximately 910,000 units in Q4, bringing cumulative installed units to ~11,000,000 (up 36% YoY). Shipments of Antora, MONADO, and Pikes series increased 62% YoY during the quarter; Antora series hit a 1,000,000-unit milestone in 2025.
Mix Shift Toward Higher-Value In-House Platforms
Sales of goods were $270,000,000 (up 27% YoY) with advanced in-house platforms contributing 74% of sales of goods revenue, reflecting stronger vertical integration and capture of greater value.
Significant Capital Raises and Balance Sheet Actions
Announced a convertible bond financing agreement up to $150,000,000 with ATW Partners and raised $456,000,000 from strategic partner Geely, strengthening capital to support R&D and international expansion.
Global Expansion and Strategic OEM Partnerships
Deepened partnership with Volkswagen Group for Latin America and expanded deployments (including Geely Galaxy EX5, Volvo EX30, Geely Galaxy M9), demonstrated European readiness with key safety/privacy certifications, and ongoing Singapore HQ operationalization to support global IP, R&D, and treasury.
Operational Efficiency and Cost Discipline
Operating expenses decreased 19% in Q4 to $57,000,000 and fell 24% for the full year to $216,000,000, evidencing successful lean operating strategy while maintaining R&D progress.
Ambitious 2026 Guidance
Full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1,000,000,000 to $1,100,000,000 (implying +20% to +30% YoY) and commitment to maintain positive operating income throughout 2026.
Negative Updates
Supply Chain and Component Cost Pressure
Company highlighted global supply shortages for hardware/components, particularly storage, and significant memory cost inflation that is expected to persist into 2026 and create margin pressure.
Near-Term Seasonality and Market Headwinds
Management noted typical Q1 softness for automotive consumption and referenced external estimates of up to a ~20% decrease in auto wholesale in Q1 year over year due to weakening government-supported policies and reduced end-user demand.
Gross Margin Compression Risk
Q4 gross margin was 21%, but management's internal outlook for 2026 gross margin was communicated around 15% to 18%, implying potential margin compression of ~3 to 6 percentage points versus Q4 levels.
Services and Software Revenue Still Small and Timing-Dependent
Services revenue was $33,000,000 and software license revenue was $2,000,000 in Q4; company characterized these lines as affected by project timing rather than current demand, indicating limited near-term contribution from higher-margin software/services.
Regulatory and Patent-Related Challenges
Management referenced challenges posed by patent policy in the global semiconductor supply chain and the need to secure additional regulatory certifications (e.g., U.S.) to expand addressable markets, highlighting regulatory/compliance execution risk during globalization.
Company Guidance
The company issued formal guidance for fiscal 2026, forecasting total revenue of $1.0 billion to $1.1 billion (up ~20%–30% year‑over‑year), a target to maintain positive operating income throughout 2026, and an expected gross margin in the ~15%–18% range; management also cautioned typical seasonality with a softer Q1 (industry reports cited ~20% YoY auto wholesale declines) but affirmed a robust full‑year order pipeline and longer‑term targets including raising the share of revenue from overseas to ~50% by 2030.ECARX Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
ECARX Holdings shows growth in revenue but faces substantial profitability and cash flow challenges. The negative equity and high leverage raise concerns about the company's financial stability. Continued focus on improving operational efficiency and cash flow management is crucial to enhance its financial health.Income Statement
ECARX Holdings has exhibited a steady revenue growth over the years, increasing from $2.24 billion in 2020 to $5.56 billion in 2024. However, the company has been consistently unprofitable with negative net incomes throughout the period, culminating in a net loss of $932.3 million in 2024. The gross profit margin has shown some stability, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are concerningly negative, indicating ongoing operational challenges.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet presents a worrying picture with consistent negative stockholders' equity, which worsened to -$1.76 billion in 2024. The high debt-to-equity ratio reflects significant leverage, increasing financial risk. Total liabilities exceed total assets, highlighting a negative equity ratio, which is a critical concern for financial stability.25
Negative
Cash Flow
ECARX Holdings has struggled with cash flow management, as seen by negative free cash flow figures in recent years, reflecting inadequate cash generation to cover capital expenditures. The operating cash flow has also been negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient cash from its core operations to cover its expenses.30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.93B | 5.56B | 4.70B | 3.56B | 2.78B |
| Gross Profit | 1.13B | 158.11M | 179.54M | 144.06M | 128.18M |
| EBITDA | -234.30M | ― | ― | ― | ― |
| Net Income | -461.54M | ― | ― | ― | ― |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.63B | 3.77B | 4.27B | 4.73B | 622.32M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 827.28M | 454.56M | 699.02M | 860.47M | 137.74M |
| Total Debt | 3.05B | 1.99B | 1.81B | 1.41B | 166.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 6.61B | 5.52B | 5.10B | 4.77B | 1.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.98B | -1.76B | -921.41M | -196.40M | -643.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -544.93M | -1.31B | -618.62M | -951.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -430.28M | -1.24B | -461.34M | -872.33M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -59.91M | 592.08M | -313.04M | -1.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 261.64M | 296.83M | 657.77M | 2.19B |
ECARX Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
1.85
Price Trends
1.78
Negative
1.96
Negative
1.84
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
39.16
Neutral
8.43
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ECX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.78, above the 50-day MA of 1.78, and above the 200-day MA of 1.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ECX.
ECARX Holdings Risk Analysis
ECARX Holdings disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ECARX Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
If we do not appropriately maintain effective internal control over financial reporting in accordance with Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, we may be unable to accurately report our financial results and the market price of our securities may be adversely affected. Q4, 2023
2.
Industry data, projections, and estimates are inherently uncertain and subject to change. Q4, 2023
3.
We are involved from time to time in legal proceedings and commercial or contractual disputes, which could have an adverse impact on our profitability and consolidated financial position. Q4, 2023
ECARX Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $134.26M | 3.97 | 9.19% | ― | 16.72% | 5.35% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $620.62M | ― | -33.69% | ― | ― | -15.43% | |
52 Neutral | $556.52M | -7.98 | ― | ― | 6.59% | 55.85% | |
50 Neutral | $778.64M | -2.42 | -192.35% | ― | 89.90% | 5.13% | |
48 Neutral | $195.26M | -2.74 | -71.46% | ― | 46.09% | 46.01% | |
46 Neutral | $74.34M | -0.80 | -75.54% | ― | -19.11% | 73.51% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ECX
ECARX Holdings
1.54
-0.51
-24.88%
CAAS
China Automotive Systems
4.42
-0.17
-3.70%
AEVA
Aeva Technologies
12.46
8.64
226.18%
INVZ
Innoviz Technologies
0.92
0.13
16.22%
LIDR
AEye Inc
1.58
0.88
125.71%
SES
SES AI Corporation Class A
1.61
0.70
76.92%
ECARX Holdings Corporate Events
ECARX Secures US$45.6 Million Strategic Investment from Geely Holding to Drive Global Expansion
Jan 12, 2026
On January 8, 2026, ECARX Holdings Inc. entered into a subscription agreement under which Geely Investment Holding Ltd. will make a strategic US$45.6 million private placement into the company by purchasing 27,297,002 newly issued Class A ordinary shares at US$1.67 per share, a price based on the 20-day volume-weighted average on Nasdaq, with the shares subject to a six-month lock-up and closing contingent on customary conditions. ECARX plans to deploy the proceeds to accelerate development and global rollout of its vehicle hardware and software platforms, including strengthening its German R&D hub and infrastructure in South America and Southeast Asia; executives from both Geely and ECARX framed the investment, announced in London on January 12, 2026, as a vote of confidence in ECARX’s technology, its recent project wins with Volkswagen Group and partnership with Lotus Tech, and its broader strategy to cement its role in the global smart, connected vehicle ecosystem despite what management characterizes as a share price that lags the firm’s long-term prospects.
The most recent analyst rating on (ECX) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ECARX Holdings stock, see the ECX Stock Forecast page.
ECARX to Invest US$23 Million in Lotus Technology to Expand Global Intelligent Vehicle Partnership
Dec 29, 2025
On December 29, 2025, ECARX Holdings announced that it had signed a subscription agreement on December 23, 2025 to make a US$23 million strategic investment in Lotus Technology Inc. via a private placement of 16,788,321 newly issued Lotus Tech ordinary shares at US$1.37 per share, subject to customary closing conditions and a six‑month lock‑up. The deal is intended to deepen the companies’ global partnership by expanding deployment of ECARX’s Pikes computing platform and Cloudpeak cross‑domain software stack with Google Automotive Services in Lotus vehicles worldwide, reinforcing ECARX’s international expansion ambitions and signaling mutual confidence in Lotus Tech’s long‑term strategy and its push into next‑generation intelligent, AI‑driven in‑vehicle experiences.
The most recent analyst rating on (ECX) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ECARX Holdings stock, see the ECX Stock Forecast page.
ECARX Holdings Enters Convertible Loan Agreement with DreamSmart
Dec 4, 2025
On December 4, 2025, ECARX Holdings Inc. announced a Convertible Loan Agreement with DREAMSMART TECHNOLOGY PTE. LTD. and its subsidiary, Hubei DreamSmart Group Co., Ltd. Under this agreement, ECARX (Hubei), a subsidiary of ECARX Holdings, will provide a loan of RMB300 million to DreamSmart Hubei, with the option to convert the loan into shares of DreamSmart Singapore. This strategic move is expected to strengthen ECARX’s financial positioning and potentially expand its influence in the automotive technology sector by aligning with DreamSmart’s operations.
The most recent analyst rating on (ECX) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ECARX Holdings stock, see the ECX Stock Forecast page.
ECARX Holdings Secures $60 Million Through Convertible Notes in November 2025
Nov 28, 2025
On November 3, 2025, ECARX Holdings Inc. entered into a convertible note purchase agreement to issue and sell up to $100 million in convertible notes. The initial investor agreed to purchase $35 million, with an additional $25 million purchased by another existing holder on November 26, 2025. The remaining $40 million is contingent on finding additional investors, indicating potential uncertainties in securing full funding.
The most recent analyst rating on (ECX) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ECARX Holdings stock, see the ECX Stock Forecast page.
ECARX Expands Digital Cockpit Partnership with Volkswagen in Latin America
Nov 13, 2025
On November 13, 2025, ECARX Holdings Inc. announced an expanded partnership with Volkswagen Group to supply advanced digital cockpit solutions for various vehicle models in Latin America. This new award, following an initial agreement in March 2025, involves the integration of ECARX’s Antora® 1000 and 500 computing platforms, alongside Google Automotive Services, to enhance user interfaces and maintain Volkswagen’s competitive edge in digital innovation. The collaboration underscores ECARX’s capability to deliver industry-leading infotainment systems and strengthens its positioning in the automotive technology sector.
The most recent analyst rating on (ECX) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ECARX Holdings stock, see the ECX Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.