XPEL (XPEL) AI Stock Analysis

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XPEL

(NASDAQ:XPEL)

67Neutral

XPEL's stock score reflects strong financial performance and reasonable valuation, tempered by bearish technical indicators and challenges highlighted in the earnings call. Financial resilience and growth in key product lines are significant strengths, while operational and market challenges, especially in China and OEM revenue, weigh on the outlook.

XPEL (XPEL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$759.05M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)284.13K

Price to Earnings (P/E)16.7

Beta (1Y)0.99

Revenue Growth6.08%

EPS Growth-13.90%

CountryUS

Employees1,143

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength64

IndustryAuto - Parts

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.65

Shares Outstanding27,652,225

10 Day Avg. Volume324,069

30 Day Avg. Volume284,131

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)2.12

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)35.30

P/FCF Ratio35.30

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$45.00

Price Target Upside63.93% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

XPEL Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionXPEL, Inc. is a leading provider in the automotive sector, specializing in protective films and coatings. The company is renowned for its innovative solutions that enhance the durability and aesthetic appeal of vehicles. Its core products include paint protection film, automotive window tint, and architectural window film, catering to a diverse clientele ranging from individual car owners to automotive manufacturers.

How the Company Makes MoneyXPEL generates revenue primarily through the sale and distribution of its protective film products. The company's revenue model is centered around direct sales to consumers, partnerships with automotive dealerships, and collaborations with professional installers. Significant revenue streams include the sale of paint protection films and window tints, which are marketed for their ability to protect vehicle surfaces and interiors from damage and wear. XPEL's partnerships with automotive dealers and aftermarket service providers play a crucial role in expanding its market reach and enhancing sales volumes. Additionally, the company's global distribution network and focus on high-quality product innovation contribute to its strong market position and revenue growth.

XPEL Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPEL maintains a strong financial position with consistent revenue and profit growth, a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and robust cash flow management. The company is well-positioned for future growth, though improvements in operational efficiencies could enhance profitability further.

Income Statement

Very Positive

XPEL has demonstrated solid revenue growth with a TTM increase to $420.4M from $396.3M in the previous year, reflecting a growth rate of 6.08%. Gross Profit Margin is stable at 42.2%, and Net Profit Margin is strong at 10.82%. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased, indicating some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.093, indicating strong equity backing. The Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 20.17%, showing effective use of equity capital. The Equity Ratio is high at 78.9%, highlighting a solid financial foundation. However, overall asset growth could be optimized further.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

XPEL exhibits robust cash flow management with a substantial Free Cash Flow growth of 38.2% in the TTM. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.05, reflecting efficient conversion of net income into cash. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.90, underscoring strong free cash flow generation aligned with profitability.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
420.40M	396.29M	323.99M	259.26M	158.92M
	Gross Profit
177.36M	162.41M	127.51M	92.68M	54.03M
	EBIT
59.15M	66.97M	53.94M	40.12M	23.37M
	EBITDA
69.47M	76.87M	61.77M	40.12M	23.37M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
45.49M	52.80M	41.38M	31.57M	18.28M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
22.09M	11.61M	8.06M	9.64M	29.03M
	Total Assets
285.61M	252.04M	193.36M	161.01M	83.84M
	Total Debt
21.08M	36.06M	42.08M	38.26M	12.12M
	Net Debt
-1.00M	24.45M	34.02M	28.61M	-16.91M
	Total Liabilities
60.15M	72.05M	68.64M	76.55M	30.46M
	Stockholders Equity
225.46M	179.99M	124.72M	84.46M	53.38M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
41.11M	29.74M	2.50M	10.58M	16.31M
	Operating Cash Flow
47.82M	37.38M	12.06M	18.27M	18.47M
	Investing Cash Flow
-18.40M	-26.35M	-14.16M	-56.81M	-4.66M
	Financing Cash Flow
-19.25M	-7.26M	602.00K	19.24M	3.51M

XPEL Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price27.45

Price Trends

50DMA

31.50

Negative

100DMA

36.79

Negative

200DMA

39.23

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.45

Negative

RSI

44.66

Neutral

STOCH

74.64

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPEL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.18, below the 50-day MA of 31.50, and below the 200-day MA of 39.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XPEL.

XPEL Risk Analysis

XPEL disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPEL reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

XPEL Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PLOW	74 Outperform	$551.59M	10.24	22.04%	4.87%	0.06%	137.74%
SMP	71 Outperform	$527.31M	10.05	8.57%	4.87%	7.77%	-15.32%
THRM	71 Outperform	$718.19M	11.30	7.74%	―	-0.51%	9.10%
XPEL	67 Neutral	$759.05M	16.68	22.44%	―	6.08%	-13.90%
FOXF	63 Neutral	$880.13M	134.48	0.54%	―	-4.80%	-94.50%
ADNT	62 Neutral	$1.06B	800.64	-0.10%	―	-5.42%	-99.08%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.85B	11.57	3.09%	4.18%	2.37%	-21.38%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

XPEL

27.45

-26.96

-49.55%

PLOW

Douglas Dynamics

23.88

2.43

11.33%

SMP

Standard Motor Products

24.12

-6.98

-22.44%

FOXF

Fox Factory Holding

21.10

-19.12

-47.54%

THRM

Gentherm

24.74

-25.64

-50.89%

ADNT

Adient

12.57

-18.18

-59.12%

XPEL Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: -31.94% | Next Earnings Date: May 6, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strong growth in regions outside of China and successful product launches, but faced significant challenges in the Chinese market, OEM revenue, and increased SG&A expenses. The company is navigating uncertain macroeconomic conditions, including tariffs and FX impacts.

Highlights

Revenue Growth Excluding China

XPEL achieved a solid fourth quarter with revenue excluding China growing at 10.5%, indicating strong performance in other regions despite challenges in the Chinese market.

Gross Margin Improvement

The gross margin for the year improved to 42.2%, a 120 basis point increase over 2023, showing effective cost management and operational efficiency.

Strong Window Film Product Line Growth

Total window film product line grew 32.9% in the quarter, driven by automotive growth of 31.7% to $14.3 million, with significant contributions from the partnership with Tint World.

Successful Launch of Windshield Protection Film

The new windshield protection film launched during Q4 and generated $1.5 million in revenue in just one month, indicating strong market reception.

Dealer Conference Record Attendance

The dealer conference saw over 700 attendees from 38 countries, marking an all-time record and demonstrating strong engagement and interest from partners.

Lowlights

China Market Challenges

Revenue from China decreased from $16.6 million in Q4 2023 to $9.2 million, impacted by difficult comps and ongoing inventory management issues.

OEM Revenue Decline

OEM revenue declined slightly due to changes in the Rivian program, negatively impacting the quarter while transitioning to new product offerings.

SG&A Expense Increase

SG&A expenses grew by 17.4% to $31.4 million in the quarter, driven by acquisition-related costs, marketing, and R&D, impacting overall profitability.

Net Income and EPS Decline

Net income for the quarter declined 25.7% to $8.9 million, and EPS was $0.32 per share, partly due to significant FX losses impacting earnings.

Inventory and Tariff Concerns

Inventory levels increased due to new manufacturing scale-up and tariff concerns, leading to potential operational challenges and increased costs.

Company Guidance

In the XPEL, Inc. fourth quarter and year-end 2024 earnings call, CEO Ryan Pape and CFO Barry Wood provided a detailed overview of the company's performance and strategic direction. Despite facing macroeconomic challenges, XPEL achieved a 6% revenue growth for the year, reaching $420.4 million. The US region saw a 6.2% increase in Q4, contributing $59.1 million to revenue. The company's gross margin improved by 120 basis points to 42.2% for the year, though Q4 saw a dip to 40.6% due to product mix and inventory monetization strategies. XPEL's SG&A expenses rose by 17.4% in Q4, totaling $31.4 million, driven by acquisition-related costs and increased marketing and R&D expenditures. The company took measures to manage expenses, including a workforce reduction to save $2 million annually. Product revenue, excluding China, grew 10.9% in Q4, with window film products showing a 32.9% increase. XPEL also discussed plans for geographic expansion and product diversification, including a successful launch of windshield protection film and upcoming colored film products. The company remains focused on optimizing its operations and capital deployment for future growth, with a strategic emphasis on expanding services, especially in new car dealerships.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.