XPEL (XPEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.07B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 264.96K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 10.29%
• EPS Growth: -3.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,143
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 27,604,183
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 250,511
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 264,963
• PEG Ratio: 2.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.70
• 1Y Price Target: $55.00
• Price Target Upside: 41.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.07
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $518.18M

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $42.00 ▲(8.42% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is primarily supported by strong financial quality (profitability, cash generation, and low leverage) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook for margin recovery and operating leverage. These strengths are tempered by weak near-term technical momentum and a relatively high P/E without a dividend yield, with modest additional influence from governance-related corporate actions.

Positive Factors

Healthy margins & cash conversion

XPEL's high gross and net margins combined with operating cash flow that exceeded net income in 2024 signal durable earnings quality. A conservative balance sheet with low leverage (~0.09 D/E) gives flexibility to fund targeted manufacturing, supply‑chain investments and opportunistic M&A without stressing liquidity.

Direct China presence via acquisition

The China distribution acquisition establishes direct access to the world's largest auto markets and broadened revenue mix. A sustained direct channel increases total addressable market, improves control over local distribution and creates durable cross‑sell opportunities as China's aftermarket normalizes.

Product diversification & installer network

XPEL's mix of PPF, window film and insulation, plus its global authorized installer/dealer network and design/software tools, creates recurring consumable demand. Broad product momentum and strong dealer engagement underpin durable aftermarket cash flows and reduce reliance on any single product or region.

Negative Factors

Decelerating revenue growth trajectory

Revenue growth has materially slowed over several years, which reduces the company's ability to scale fixed costs and deliver operating leverage. Persistently lower top‑line momentum increases dependence on acquisitions, new markets or sustained product gains to support margin expansion and ROI on investments.

Acquired China inventory pressured margins

Integration of acquired inventory at higher cost has compressed gross margins and represents a structural integration risk. If inventory is large or re‑pricing is slow, margin recovery could be delayed, producing ongoing volatility in gross margins until cost bases reset or sales mix shifts favorably.

Elevated SG&A and investment cadence

Sustained increases in SG&A tied to field expansion, dealer programs and M&A activity raise the revenue growth needed to deliver margin improvements. If top‑line deceleration persists, elevated operating costs could compress margins and extend the period required to realize operating leverage from investments.

XPEL Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPEL, Inc. manufactures, sells, distributes, and installs after-market automotive products. The company offers automotive surface and paint protection films, headlight protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary software. It also provides merchandise and apparel; ceramic coatings; and tools and accessories, which includes squeegees and microfiber towels, application fluids, plotter cutters, knives, and other products. In addition, the company offers paint protection kits, car wash products, after-care products, and installation tools through its website. It sells its products to independent installers and new car dealerships, third-party distributors, and company-owned installation centers, as well as through franchisees and online sales channels. The company serves in the United States, China, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa, and internationally. XPEL, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

XPEL generates revenue primarily by selling appearance-protection products and related solutions through multiple channels. The largest revenue driver is typically product sales of paint protection film (PPF), which is sold in rolls/kits to independent installers, dealers, distributors, and other trade customers who apply the film to customer vehicles and recognize the installation labor revenue themselves. XPEL also sells automotive window film and ceramic coating products, which follow a similar model: XPEL supplies the consumables while professional installers and dealers apply them, creating repeat product demand tied to vehicle sales, used-vehicle reconditioning, and consumer aftermarket spending. In addition to consumables, XPEL earns revenue from enabling services and tools used by its installer network—most notably access to design/pattern solutions used to cut vehicle-specific templates for film installation (where available), as well as training, software-related offerings, and installation accessories and tools. International expansion contributes via sales through owned operations and third-party distributors, with earnings influenced by the size and productivity of the authorized installer/dealer network, brand positioning, and automotive production/sales and aftermarket demand trends. Specific terms of major partnerships, customer concentration, or exact segment mix are null.

XPEL Financial Statement Overview

Summary

High-quality fundamentals: strong profitability (2024 gross margin ~42%, net margin ~10.8%), solid cash conversion (2024 operating cash flow > net income), and a conservative balance sheet with low leverage (2024 debt-to-equity ~0.09) and strong historical ROE. Offsets are slowing revenue growth and some cash-flow volatility (notably weak 2022 and modest 2025 FCF decline).

Income Statement

XPEL shows strong profitability with healthy margins in the latest years (2024 gross margin ~42% and net margin ~10.8%), and earnings power has generally scaled with revenue over the cycle. Revenue has grown materially from 2020 to 2025, but the growth trajectory is clearly decelerating (2023 ~22% to 2024 ~6% to 2025 ~3%), which reduces forward momentum. Profitability remains solid, though margins appear to have softened from 2023 to 2024, suggesting some mix, pricing, or cost pressure versus peak levels.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage (2024 debt-to-equity ~0.09, improving from ~0.45 in 2021) and a growing equity base, which adds financial flexibility. Returns on equity have been strong historically (roughly ~20% to ~37% across 2021–2024), indicating efficient capital use, though the trend has come down from earlier peak levels. Overall, the company appears well-capitalized with limited debt risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow and free cash flow have grown strongly versus earlier years, and 2024 operating cash flow exceeded net income (coverage ~1.15), indicating good cash conversion. However, cash flow has shown volatility (notably weak cash generation in 2022 with operating cash flow below net income and very low free cash flow), and 2025 free cash flow declined modestly (~-3.9%), which bears monitoring despite the still-healthy absolute level.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	476.20M	420.40M	396.29M	323.99M	259.26M
Gross Profit	201.02M	177.36M	162.41M	127.51M	92.68M
EBITDA	77.40M	69.47M	76.87M	61.21M	44.13M
Net Income	51.23M	45.49M	52.80M	41.38M	31.57M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	391.19M	285.61M	252.04M	193.36M	161.01M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	50.86M	22.09M	11.61M	8.06M	9.64M
Total Debt	22.86M	21.08M	36.06M	42.08M	38.26M
Total Liabilities	106.00M	60.15M	72.05M	68.64M	76.55M
Stockholders Equity	280.28M	225.46M	179.99M	124.72M	84.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	62.93M	41.11M	29.74M	2.50M	10.58M
Operating Cash Flow	66.94M	47.82M	37.38M	12.06M	18.27M
Investing Cash Flow	-33.78M	-18.40M	-26.35M	-14.16M	-56.81M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.66M	-19.25M	-7.26M	602.00K	19.24M

XPEL Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 38.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.63, below the 50-day MA of 48.48, and below the 200-day MA of 41.17, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XPEL.

XPEL Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XPEL	71 Outperform	$1.07B	26.95	19.69%	―	10.29%	-3.90%
THRM	62 Neutral	$840.39M	60.64	4.44%	―	-0.10%	-53.49%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SMP	53 Neutral	$768.46M	10.25	11.76%	3.32%	23.96%	11.01%
ECX	52 Neutral	$356.75M	-8.83	13.96%	―	6.59%	55.85%
AEVA	48 Neutral	$847.73M	-5.21	9999.00%	―	89.90%	5.13%
FOXF	47 Neutral	$672.18M	-1.34	-23.94%	―	6.23%	-2508.93%

XPEL Corporate Events

XPEL Tightens Governance With Bylaw and Trading Policy Changes

On February 19, 2026, XPEL, Inc. amended its bylaws to tighten rules around director removal, allowing stockholders to remove directors only for cause with a two‑thirds supermajority vote or by a majority vote of the board, a move aimed at promoting board continuity and emphasizing long‑term corporate interests. On the same date, the company updated its insider trading policy to expand blackout periods for key personnel around quarterly earnings, further restricting when they may trade XPEL securities and underscoring a stronger governance and compliance posture.

These governance changes are likely to solidify leadership stability at XPEL while reducing the risk of short‑term pressures on the board and enhancing controls over potential insider trading. The adjustments may reassure long‑term investors and other stakeholders that the company is tightening oversight and aligning internal practices with more stringent corporate governance standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPEL) stock is a Buy with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPEL stock, see the XPEL Stock Forecast page.