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Xplr Infrastructure, Lp (XIFR)
:XIFR
US Market

XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) AI Stock Analysis

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XPLR Infrastructure

(NYSE:XIFR)

Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
XPLR Infrastructure's overall score reflects significant financial risks stemming from negative earnings, high leverage, and a strategic repositioning that involves substantial debt financing and indefinite suspension of distributions. While the company exhibits strong cash flow generation and a strategic shift to self-fund growth, these are overshadowed by market concerns about financial stability and future profitability, as evidenced by a negative P/E ratio. Technical indicators suggest the stock is under pressure, although potential for a rebound exists. The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with strategic realignment, yet the risks associated with debt and declining EBITDA cannot be ignored.
Positive Factors
M&A Potential
M&A appetite for renewable portfolios remains strong, suggesting upside potential once CEPFs are addressed.
Management Strategy
Management's plan to address upcoming CEPF buyouts with higher cost of capital could lead to an improved capital structure if executed well.
Negative Factors
Dividend Strategy
The company's suspension of its dividend indefinitely and shift to a RetainCo/GrowthCo model may lead to shareholder rotation.
Guidance and Growth
Current 2026 guidance implies CAFD declining from approximately $660 million to $450-500 million, raising concerns about growth.
Uncertainty and Strategy
Significant uncertainty around XPLR's longer-term strategy and growth potential raises investor concerns.

XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

XPLR Infrastructure Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionXPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) is a leading company in the infrastructure sector, focusing on the development, construction, and management of critical infrastructure projects. The company specializes in transportation infrastructure, energy facilities, and urban development, offering comprehensive solutions that include design, engineering, and construction services. With a commitment to sustainability and innovation, XIFR aims to enhance connectivity and improve the quality of life through its state-of-the-art infrastructure solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyXPLR Infrastructure makes money primarily through contracts for large-scale infrastructure projects. These projects are often funded by government entities, private sector partnerships, or a combination of both. Revenue streams include project design and consultancy fees, construction and engineering services, and long-term management contracts for infrastructure maintenance. Significant partnerships with government agencies and private sector companies enable XIFR to secure high-value contracts, while its focus on sustainability and innovation attracts clients seeking modern and efficient infrastructure solutions.

XPLR Infrastructure Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 0.46%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a major strategic shift for XPLR Infrastructure, emphasizing internal cash flow utilization and a move away from issuing equity. While the company highlighted its strong asset base and strategic repositioning, the indefinite suspension of distributions and anticipated EBITDA decline due to asset sales and significant debt financing posed concerns.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Repositioning of Business Model
XPLR Infrastructure announced a strategic shift to utilize retained cash flow for investments rather than issuing equity, aiming to self-fund growth and preserve balance sheet strength.
New Management Team
A new management team led by Alan Liu has been established, focusing on creating additional unitholder value through strategic capital allocation and leveraging the relationship with NextEra Energy.
Strong Asset Portfolio
XPLR Infrastructure owns a diverse set of high-quality generation assets totaling 10 gigawatts, with long-term contracts averaging 13 years in duration and high-credit-quality customers.
2024 Financial Performance
XPLR reported adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.96 billion for the full year 2024, close to the midpoint of expectations.
Negative Updates
Suspension of Distributions
XPLR suspended distributions to unitholders indefinitely, shifting focus from paying out cash flows to investing retained cash for growth.
Decline in Future EBITDA
Projected adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is expected to decline to $1.75 billion to $1.95 billion, primarily due to the anticipated sale of the Meade pipeline investment.
Significant Debt Financing
XPLR plans to raise approximately $4.4 billion in debt financing over the next two years, including $1.5 billion in new debt, to fund CEPF buyouts and repowering projects.
Impact of Meade Pipeline Sale
The expected sale of the Meade pipeline investment in late 2025 will result in a significant step down in EBITDA.
Company Guidance
During the XPLR Infrastructure Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call, significant guidance was provided regarding the company’s strategic repositioning and future financial metrics. The company announced a suspension of distributions to unitholders, opting instead to utilize its retained operating cash flow for investments such as CEPF buyouts and growth opportunities, including wind repowerings and colocated storage. The management team emphasized that the strategy aims to eliminate the need for issuing new equity while focusing on organic growth and preserving the balance sheet. Financial projections indicated that adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is expected to remain flat year-over-year, with a decline to $1.75 billion to $1.95 billion in 2026 due to anticipated asset sales. Free cash flow before growth is anticipated to range between $600 million and $700 million in 2026, and remain relatively consistent through the decade. Additionally, XPLR plans to address $4.4 billion in debt financing requirements over the next two years, including $1.5 billion in new debt, without relying on equity issuances, aligning with its repositioning strategy to maximize unitholder value.

XPLR Infrastructure Financial Statement Overview

Summary
XPLR Infrastructure is experiencing revenue growth, but profitability and financial stability are concerning due to negative earnings and high leverage. Cash flow performance is a bright spot, with strong operational cash flow and improved free cash flow, yet the reliance on debt and lack of equity present significant risks.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The company has shown a revenue increase in the latest year, but profitability is a concern with negative EBIT and declining net income. The gross profit margin remains strong, yet the net profit margin has declined significantly. Revenue growth is positive, but operational inefficiencies are evident with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet reflects a highly leveraged position with a debt-to-equity ratio that cannot be calculated due to zero equity, indicating financial instability. Return on Equity is not meaningful due to negative or zero equity in recent years. There is a significant reliance on debt financing, which poses a risk to financial stability.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The company has managed a positive turnaround in free cash flow, showing strong growth compared to the previous year. Operating cash flow remains healthy, indicating strong cash generation, though the free cash flow to net income ratio is skewed due to negative net income.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.23B1.08B969.00M722.00M917.00M
Gross Profit
726.00M558.00M442.00M348.00M554.00M
EBIT
-459.00M-28.00M44.00M64.00M253.00M
EBITDA
345.00M772.00M581.00M474.00M737.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-23.00M200.00M477.00M137.00M-50.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
283.00M274.00M226.00M147.00M108.00M
Total Assets
20.29B22.51B23.05B18.98B12.56B
Total Debt
5.31B6.29B5.29B5.33B3.39B
Net Debt
5.03B6.01B5.06B5.18B3.28B
Total Liabilities
7.43B8.45B8.28B7.82B4.86B
Stockholders Equity
0.000.000.000.000.00
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
559.00M-538.00M-575.00M564.00M331.00M
Operating Cash Flow
800.00M731.00M776.00M677.00M665.00M
Investing Cash Flow
1.24B-194.00M-1.19B-2.30B-681.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-2.00B-527.00M551.00M1.66B-4.00M

XPLR Infrastructure Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.67
Price Trends
50DMA
8.76
Negative
100DMA
9.47
Negative
200DMA
15.12
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Positive
RSI
48.59
Neutral
STOCH
55.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XIFR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.99, below the 50-day MA of 8.76, and below the 200-day MA of 15.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XIFR.

XPLR Infrastructure Risk Analysis

XPLR Infrastructure disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPLR Infrastructure reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
NEE has influence over XPLR. Q4, 2024
2.
XPLR may not make any distributions in the future to its unitholders as a result of the execution of its business plan. Q4, 2024
3.
XPLR's liquidity may be impaired if its credit providers are unable to fund their credit commitments to XPLR or to maintain their current credit ratings. Q4, 2024

XPLR Infrastructure Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
VSVST
77
Outperform
$58.91B27.2346.29%0.52%49.22%313.49%
KEKEN
76
Outperform
$1.93B3.231.56%13.00%5.77%
NRNRG
71
Outperform
$29.07B23.4244.91%1.09%2.57%-10.19%
TLTLN
65
Neutral
$1.80B26.7929.32%68.95%-34.72%
64
Neutral
$8.52B10.394.24%4.38%4.14%-13.04%
PAPAM
64
Neutral
$4.09B7.7116.31%8.89%24.01%
46
Neutral
$837.55M-5.30%40.35%-3.35%-104.51%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
XIFR
XPLR Infrastructure
8.75
-19.99
-69.55%
NRG
NRG Energy
148.68
69.52
87.82%
PAM
Pampa Energia SA
76.02
30.81
68.15%
KEN
Kenon
35.82
14.31
66.53%
VST
Vistra Energy
164.65
74.84
83.33%
TLN
Talen Energy Corp
255.10
138.93
119.59%

XPLR Infrastructure Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
XPLR Infrastructure Announces Leadership Changes in 2025
Neutral
Mar 17, 2025

XPLR Infrastructure announced significant leadership changes effective May 22, 2025. Rebecca Kujawa will retire from the Board of Directors, and James M. May will resign as Controller to join NextEra Energy, Inc. William J. Gough will succeed Mr. May as Controller, bringing extensive experience from his roles at NextEra Energy and National Grid US. Additionally, Michael H. Dunne will join the Board, succeeding Ms. Kujawa, with a background in finance and investment banking.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.