XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $837.55M
• Dividend Yield: 40.35%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: -3.35%
• EPS Growth: -104.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): -1.05
• Shares Outstanding: 94,001,015
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 853,491
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,094,221
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $10.25
• Price Target Upside: 15.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

XPLR Infrastructure's overall score reflects significant financial risks stemming from negative earnings, high leverage, and a strategic repositioning that involves substantial debt financing and indefinite suspension of distributions. While the company exhibits strong cash flow generation and a strategic shift to self-fund growth, these are overshadowed by market concerns about financial stability and future profitability, as evidenced by a negative P/E ratio. Technical indicators suggest the stock is under pressure, although potential for a rebound exists. The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with strategic realignment, yet the risks associated with debt and declining EBITDA cannot be ignored.

Positive Factors

Capital Structure Improvement

Management's plan to address upcoming CEPF buyouts involves higher cost of capital on refinanced and new debt raised, but if executed according to plan, the company should reemerge with an improved and less complex capital structure.

M&A Potential

M&A appetite for renewable portfolios remains strong despite IRA uncertainty, such that there is upside potential once CEPFs are addressed.

Portfolio Value

Management has described wind repowerings as NPV positive, extending asset life and cash flows.

Negative Factors

Dividend Suspension

The company's repositioning suspending distributions indefinitely is likely to lead to shareholder rotation and with the growth profile opaque through the end of the decade.

Financial Guidance

Current 2026 guidance implies CAFD declining from approximately $660 million to $450-500 million.

Strategic Uncertainty

Significant uncertainty around XPLR's longer-term strategy, growth potential, and functionality raises concerns.

XPLR Infrastructure Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) is a leading company in the infrastructure sector, focusing on the development, construction, and management of critical infrastructure projects. The company specializes in transportation infrastructure, energy facilities, and urban development, offering comprehensive solutions that include design, engineering, and construction services. With a commitment to sustainability and innovation, XIFR aims to enhance connectivity and improve the quality of life through its state-of-the-art infrastructure solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

XPLR Infrastructure makes money primarily through contracts for large-scale infrastructure projects. These projects are often funded by government entities, private sector partnerships, or a combination of both. Revenue streams include project design and consultancy fees, construction and engineering services, and long-term management contracts for infrastructure maintenance. Significant partnerships with government agencies and private sector companies enable XIFR to secure high-value contracts, while its focus on sustainability and innovation attracts clients seeking modern and efficient infrastructure solutions.

XPLR Infrastructure Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nextera Energy Partners shows stable revenue growth and profitability with strong operating cash flow. However, challenges include declining gross profit margins and high leverage, indicating financial risks.

Income Statement

Nextera Energy Partners has shown a moderate revenue growth, with a recent increase from $1.078 billion to $1.154 billion in the TTM period. However, gross profit margin has decreased significantly from 51.76% in 2022 to 19.32% in the TTM, indicating potential cost pressures. The net profit margin improved slightly to 17.68% from 18.55% but is supported by a higher net income. EBIT and EBITDA margins have fluctuated, with EBIT margin improving to 2.34% in the TTM from negative figures previously, while EBITDA margin remains healthy at 47.56%.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio due to substantial total debt of $5.174 billion against a lower stockholders' equity of $3.413 billion. Return on equity is positive, at 5.98% in the TTM, but this follows a period of negative equity. The equity ratio stands at 16.33% in the TTM, which suggests a low reliance on equity financing, introducing financial risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong at $696 million, resulting in a favorable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.41. Free cash flow has turned positive to $302 million, recovering from negative values previously, indicating improved cash management. However, free cash flow to net income ratio is less robust at 1.48, showing room for further cash flow improvements.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.15B	1.08B	1.21B	982.00M	917.00M	855.00M
	Gross Profit
223.00M	558.00M	640.00M	563.00M	554.00M	519.00M
	EBIT
27.00M	-28.00M	125.00M	234.00M	363.00M	233.00M
	EBITDA
549.00M	772.00M	545.00M	998.00M	342.00M	235.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
204.00M	200.00M	1.12B	424.00M	-238.00M	-404.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
301.00M	274.00M	235.00M	147.00M	108.00M	128.00M
	Total Assets
22.34B	22.51B	23.05B	18.95B	12.56B	12.26B
	Total Debt
6.29B	6.29B	5.29B	5.33B	3.39B	4.14B
	Net Debt
5.99B	6.01B	5.05B	5.18B	3.28B	4.02B
	Total Liabilities
8.36B	8.45B	8.27B	7.79B	4.86B	5.19B
	Stockholders Equity
3.56B	3.57B	-7.00M	-8.00M	-8.00M	-8.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
302.00M	-538.00M	586.00M	564.00M	331.00M	253.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
696.00M	731.00M	776.00M	677.00M	665.00M	346.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
1.49B	-194.00M	-1.19B	-2.30B	-681.00M	-2.35B
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.23B	-527.00M	551.00M	1.66B	-4.00M	1.97B

XPLR Infrastructure Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 8.91
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XIFR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.03, above the 50-day MA of 8.80, and below the 200-day MA of 15.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XIFR.

XPLR Infrastructure Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VST	77 Outperform	$58.91B	27.23	46.29%	0.51%	49.22%	313.49%
KEN	76 Outperform	$1.93B	3.23	1.56%	13.00%	5.77%	―
NRG	71 Outperform	$30.51B	24.57	44.91%	1.09%	2.57%	-10.19%
PAM	65 Neutral	$4.08B	7.84	16.31%	―	8.89%	24.01%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.54B	10.30	4.69%	4.37%	4.14%	-13.04%
TLN	64 Neutral	$1.80B	26.95	29.32%	―	68.95%	-34.72%
XIFR	46 Neutral	$837.55M	―	-5.30%	40.35%	-3.35%	-104.51%

XPLR Infrastructure Corporate Events

XPLR Infrastructure Announces Leadership Changes in 2025

XPLR Infrastructure announced significant leadership changes effective May 22, 2025. Rebecca Kujawa will retire from the Board of Directors, and James M. May will resign as Controller to join NextEra Energy, Inc. William J. Gough will succeed Mr. May as Controller, bringing extensive experience from his roles at NextEra Energy and National Grid US. Additionally, Michael H. Dunne will join the Board, succeeding Ms. Kujawa, with a background in finance and investment banking.