Pampa Energia (PAM)
NYSE:PAM
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Pampa Energia SA
(NYSE:PAM)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$96.00
▲(17.29% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/14/26
The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals (re-accelerating growth, profitable operations, improving leverage) tempered by persistently negative free cash flow and planned heavy investment spend. Technical signals are mixed with negative MACD and price below key mid-term averages. Valuation is supportive with a ~12x P/E, but the lack of dividend support and near-term cash outflow risk keep the overall score in the mid-range.
Positive Factors
Production & Reserves
Rapid Rincón de Aranda ramp and a 28% reserves increase materially boost the company's resource base and production profile. Higher certified shale reserves and a 10.2-year reserve life underpin sustained oil & gas cash flows and lower per‑unit lifting costs as development scales.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
A multi‑year, high‑intensity CapEx program (record $1.4bn in 2025; ~$1.1bn planned) drives projected negative post‑investment FCF, reducing cash reserves and constraining distributable cash. This materially limits near‑term flexibility and increases reliance on execution and capital markets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production & Reserves
Rapid Rincón de Aranda ramp and a 28% reserves increase materially boost the company's resource base and production profile. Higher certified shale reserves and a 10.2-year reserve life underpin sustained oil & gas cash flows and lower per‑unit lifting costs as development scales.
Read all positive factors
Pampa Energia SA (PAM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.18B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)261.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth6.37%
EPS Growth7.35%
CountryUS
Employees2,013
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.00
Shares Outstanding54,540,813
10 Day Avg. Volume252,351
30 Day Avg. Volume261,679
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)2.36
P/FCF Ratio-17.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$97.00Price Target Upside18.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)8.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.47B
Pampa Energia SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pampa Energía S.A., an integrated power company, engages in the generation and transmission of electricity in Argentina. The company operates through Electricity Generation, Oil and Gas, Petrochemicals, and Holding and Other Business segments. It ...
How the Company Makes Money
Pampa Energia makes money primarily from (1) selling electricity generated by its power plants and (2) earning regulated and/or contracted fees from energy transportation infrastructure.
1) Electricity generation revenue: Pampa earns revenue by ...
Pampa Energia SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted material operational progress and strong medium-term growth drivers—most notably the fast ramp-up at Rincón de Aranda (major contributor to production, reserves and EBITDA), record reserves and a stronger balance sheet (liquidity and long-dated bond). These positives are partially tempered by seasonality-driven QoQ weakness in gas and EBITDA, rising near-term CapEx leading to a planned negative cash flow and temporarily reduced distributable cash (no dividends planned), some elevated treatment/transport costs, and pending regulatory approvals (RIGI). Overall, the narrative signals substantive operational momentum and a solid financial position to fund growth, but with meaningful near-term cash outflows and execution/approval risks to monitor.Positive Updates
Strong Production Growth and Rincón de Aranda Ramp-Up
Total annual average production exceeded 84,000 boe/d (up 8% YoY and +73% since 2017). Rincón de Aranda ramped from <1,000 bpd at the start of the year to reach a 20,000 bpd goal by December; Q4 average for the field ~17,100 bpd (a 19% QoQ increase). Company target: ~28,000 bpd by mid-2026 and 45,000 bpd by 2027.
Negative Updates
Seasonality Caused Quarter-on-Quarter Weakness
QoQ EBITDA decreased (gas seasonality), and quarter-on-quarter production dropped 18% (seasonality). Gas sales fell 23% from Q3 due to seasonality and reduced exports.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production Growth and Rincón de Aranda Ramp-Up
Total annual average production exceeded 84,000 boe/d (up 8% YoY and +73% since 2017). Rincón de Aranda ramped from <1,000 bpd at the start of the year to reach a 20,000 bpd goal by December; Q4 average for the field ~17,100 bpd (a 19% QoQ increase). Company target: ~28,000 bpd by mid-2026 and 45,000 bpd by 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Pampa guided an aggressive 2026 growth and investment program: total restricted-group CapEx of roughly $1.1bn with $770M allocated to Rincón de Aranda (≈$500M wells, remainder facilities), ~$400M for maintenance and ~ $600M for TGS’ private initiative; Q4 CapEx was $371M (up 81% YoY) with $249M to Rincón. Rincón targets: ~19,000 bpd today, 25,000 bpd by end‑March/early‑April, 27–28,000 bpd by mid‑year (28,000 bpd target via a temporary processing facility by mid‑2026) and a 45,000 bpd plateau in 2027; plan to drill 20 wells and complete 35 in Rincón (Sierra Chata: drill & complete 8), D&C cost ≈ $15M/well and EUR ≈1.1MM bbl/well. Gas guidance: Feb ~14 mcm/d, winter peak ~18 mcm/d, average ~13.5 mcm/d in 2026 (vs 12.5 in 2025) and ~40% of production expected to self‑supply power. Financial/operational outlook: consolidated 2025 EBITDA topped $1bn (+8% YoY), Q4 adjusted EBITDA $230M (+26% YoY), Oil & Gas Q4 EBITDA $77M, Power Q4 EBITDA $111M, Rincón contributed $126M in 2025; lifting costs guided ~ $10/boe (oil) and ~ $1/MMBtu (gas); proved reserves 296MM boe (+28% YoY), shale 204MM bbl (+55%), RRR 3.2x, reserve life 10.2 years. Balance sheet/cash: Q4 cash ~$1.1–1.2bn, gross debt ~ $1.9bn (‑9% YoY), net debt $801M (1.1x net leverage), avg debt life ~8 years; budgeted post‑investment free cash flow ~‑$500M, reducing cash to roughly $700M.Pampa Energia SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.04B | 1.88B | 1.73B | 1.83B | 1.51B |
| Gross Profit | 697.90M | 597.00M | 625.00M | 690.00M | 557.00M |
| EBITDA | 811.66M | 1.02B | 1.25B | 1.01B | 773.00M |
| Net Income | 398.08M | 619.00M | 302.00M | 456.00M | 273.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.61B | 6.34B | 4.72B | 4.74B | 3.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.09B | 1.67B | 831.00M | 692.00M | 573.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.93B | 2.09B | 1.47B | 1.63B | 1.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.00B | 3.05B | 2.31B | 2.46B | 2.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.60B | 3.29B | 2.40B | 2.28B | 1.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -283.16M | -12.00M | -183.00M | 172.00M | 433.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 684.62M | 435.00M | 575.00M | 619.00M | 638.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -410.54M | -344.00M | -446.00M | -575.00M | -499.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -157.84M | 476.00M | -57.00M | -46.00M | -197.47M |
Pampa Energia SA Technical Analysis
Positive
81.85
Price Trends
83.35
Positive
85.20
Positive
77.78
Positive
Market Momentum
1.33
Positive
54.12
Neutral
47.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 81.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.97, below the 50-day MA of 83.35, and above the 200-day MA of 77.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAM.
Pampa Energia SA Risk Analysis
Pampa Energia SA disclosed 99 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pampa Energia SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Pampa Energia SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $5.18B | 12.10 | 10.99% | ― | 6.37% | 7.35% | |
64 Neutral | $6.09B | 10.38 | 7.43% | 5.63% | -25.78% | -91.93% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $4.59B | 52.17 | 4.36% | 7.33% | 8.15% | 180.89% | |
61 Neutral | $2.75B | 41.27 | 14.42% | 2.00% | -4.16% | -40.47% | |
55 Neutral | $2.71B | 16.81 | 8.00% | ― | -16.62% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $1.78B | -231.49 | 10.05% | ― | 42.09% | 219.69% |
* Industrials Sector Average
PAM
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Pampa Energia SA Corporate Events
Pampa Energía Raises US$200 Million in Oversubscribed Class 27 Note Issue
Mar 31, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Pampa Energía announced it had successfully issued a new Class 27 note for US$200 million, maturing in 36 months with an annual interest rate of 5.49%. The debt placement was fully allocated and subject to proration because...
Pampa Energía’s 2025 Annual Report Showcases Vaca Muerta Push and Financial Strength
Mar 26, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Pampa Energía filed its 2025 Annual Report, marking its 20th anniversary as a major player in Argentina’s energy sector and detailing a year of rapid upstream and power-generation expansion. In 2025 the company grew h...
Pampa Energía Calls April 7 Virtual Shareholders’ Meeting to Vote on Results, Note Program and Capital Reduction
Mar 9, 2026
Pampa Energía has called a General Ordinary and Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting for April 7, 2026, to be held virtually via Microsoft Teams in line with its bylaws. Shareholders must register their holdings and personal details with...
Pampa Energía Routes 2025 Profits to Reserves, Skips Dividend Ahead of April 7 Meeting
Mar 9, 2026
Pampa Energía has detailed the board’s proposals for its General Ordinary and Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting scheduled for April 7, 2026, covering approval of the 2025 financial statements, treatment of 2025 profits, governan...
Pampa Energía Files 2025 IFRS Financials With Clean Audit and Highlights Key Asset Valuation Judgments
Mar 6, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Pampa Energía S.A. filed a Form 6-K in the United States, presenting its consolidated financial statements in Argentine pesos for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, along with an independent auditor’s re...
Pampa Energía Secures Fitch Credit Upgrade and Positive Outlook
Mar 3, 2026
Pampa Energía S.A., a leading Argentine integrated energy company with operations spanning electricity generation, transmission, distribution and oil and gas, plays a central role in the country’s power and hydrocarbons markets. The com...
Pampa Energía Files Form 6-K with Q4 2025 Results Call Materials
Mar 3, 2026
Pampa Energía S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in early March 2026, covering its status as a foreign issuer and indicating it files annual reports on Form 20-F. The submission, signed by Chief Executive O...
Pampa Energía Files 2025 IFRS Financials and Earns Clean Audit Opinion
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Pampa Energía S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission providing its consolidated financial statements in U.S. dollars as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, along with results for the three-year per...
Pampa Energía Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results as Shale Reserves and Regulatory Tailwinds Bolster Outlook
Mar 2, 2026
Pampa Energía reported results for the fourth quarter and full year ended Dec. 31, 2025, showing Q4 sales of US$507 million, up 16% year on year, driven by higher shale oil output at Rincón de Aranda, improved spot power prices under a n...
Pampa Energía Convenes Virtual Shareholders’ Meeting for April 7, 2026
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Pampa Energía S.A.’s board of directors resolved to convene an Ordinary and Extraordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting for April 7, 2026. The first call is scheduled for 11 a.m. and the second call for noon, and...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.