Pampa Energia (PAM)
NYSE:PAM
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Pampa Energia SA
(NYSE:PAM)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$86.00
▲(5.07% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
The score reflects strong operating performance and positive ramp-up outlook from the latest earnings call, but it is held back by weak cash conversion and negative free cash flow. Valuation is supportive due to a low P/E, while technicals are slightly bearish with price below key moving averages and a negative MACD.
Positive Factors
Rincón de Aranda ramp-up
A rapid, sustained ramp at Rincón materially raises hydrocarbon volumes and segment EBITDA, converting reserves into sustained cash generation as infrastructure comes online. This increases scale, supports future deleveraging and funds midstream/power integration, changing the company’s long-term cash‑flow profile.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion / negative FCF
Persistent negative free cash flow and low cash‑coverage of accounting earnings indicate structural working‑capital and capex intensity. This forces reliance on external funding, increases exposure to funding markets and constrains shareholder returns or flexibility until ramped assets sustainably convert to positive FCF.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rincón de Aranda ramp-up
A rapid, sustained ramp at Rincón materially raises hydrocarbon volumes and segment EBITDA, converting reserves into sustained cash generation as infrastructure comes online. This increases scale, supports future deleveraging and funds midstream/power integration, changing the company’s long-term cash‑flow profile.
Read all positive factors
Pampa Energia SA (PAM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.81B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)259.08K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0
Beta (1Y)0.27
Revenue Growth7.05%
EPS Growth-36.73%
CountryUS
Employees2,013
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.50
Shares Outstanding54,540,813
10 Day Avg. Volume252,250
30 Day Avg. Volume259,084
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.35
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)2.41
P/FCF Ratio-17.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$97.25Price Target Upside18.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.50B
Pampa Energia SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pampa Energía S.A., an integrated power company, engages in the generation and transmission of electricity in Argentina. The company operates through Electricity Generation, Oil and Gas, Petrochemicals, and Holding and Other Business segments. It ...
How the Company Makes Money
Pampa Energia makes money primarily from (1) selling electricity generated by its power plants and (2) earning regulated and/or contracted fees from energy transportation infrastructure.
1) Electricity generation revenue: Pampa earns revenue by ...
Pampa Energia SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational momentum (record production, rapid Rincon de Aranda ramp-up, significant YoY EBITDA growth, improved drilling/completion efficiency, and strategic capacity wins) while also highlighting near-term cash and working capital pressures (negative free cash flow, hedge collateral, prepayments for pipeline capacity), some operational outages and mark-to-market volatility from hedges. Management communicated credible plans to sustain ramp-up, access financing (recent bond issuance) and gradually deleverage as EBITDA grows, while noting several near-term cash commitments and hedge effects.Positive Updates
Record Production and Rincon de Aranda Ramp-Up
Total production exceeded 100,000 boe/d (new quarterly all-time high). Rincon de Aranda averaged 18,200 bbl/d in Q1 (up 7% QoQ) and is producing approximately 25,000 bbl/d as of the call. Rincon de Aranda contributed ~17% of quarter EBITDA and 54% of Oil & Gas segment EBITDA (up from 15% a year ago). Exit rate exceeded 21,000 bbl/d; target 28,000 bbl/d by mid-2026 and a 45,000 bbl/d plateau once central processing and pipeline are online.
Negative Updates
Net Leverage and Debt Position
Gross debt was nearly $1.9 billion as of March (similar to end-2025), but net debt rose to ~$1.2 billion, representing net leverage of 1.5x LTM EBITDA. Management expects to keep net leverage around ~1.5x this year before gradual deleveraging.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Rincon de Aranda Ramp-Up
Total production exceeded 100,000 boe/d (new quarterly all-time high). Rincon de Aranda averaged 18,200 bbl/d in Q1 (up 7% QoQ) and is producing approximately 25,000 bbl/d as of the call. Rincon de Aranda contributed ~17% of quarter EBITDA and 54% of Oil & Gas segment EBITDA (up from 15% a year ago). Exit rate exceeded 21,000 bbl/d; target 28,000 bbl/d by mid-2026 and a 45,000 bbl/d plateau once central processing and pipeline are online.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q1 momentum should continue, with upstream and power synergies driving growth: production already topped 100,000 boe/d (Q1), Rincon de Aranda is ~25,000 bpd today (avg Q1 18,200 bpd, exit >21,000 bpd) with a target of 28,000 bpd by mid‑2026 and a 45,000 bpd plateau (full‑field development ~$4.5bn) after CPF and pipeline, and plans to tie in ~20 more wells this year; they expect gas production ~14 mcm/d (Q1), exports 1.5 mcm/d, ~40% of gas to self‑supply power, and secured 3.2 mcm/d (27% of Perito Moreno expansion) with a ~$330m prepayment (35‑year contract) and operations targeted winter 2027; financials: Q1 adjusted EBITDA $325m (+48% YoY, +41% QoQ) with Oil & Gas EBITDA $104m (2.5x YoY) and Power EBITDA $144m (+11% YoY, +30% QoQ), CapEx $242m (+36% YoY, $163m to Rincon de Aranda), lifting costs $6.1/boe (down 11% YoY), gas lifting $0.90/mmbtu, realized oil $58/bbl (hedged; without hedge >$69/bbl), free cash flow negative $404m in Q1, cash $677m, gross debt ~$1.9bn, net debt $1.2bn (net leverage 1.5x LTM EBITDA); management expects an incremental ~ $100m EBITDA for power and ~€50–60m for E&P from additional pipeline‑enabled dispatch, plans to reduce hedge ratios from ~100% during ramp‑up toward ~50%, and to keep net leverage around 1.5x this year while deleveraging as Rincon ramps.Pampa Energia SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.16B | 2.00B | 1.88B | 1.73B | 1.83B | 1.51B |
| Gross Profit | 682.00M | 629.00M | 597.00M | 625.00M | 690.00M | 557.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.22B | 1.19B | 1.02B | 1.25B | 1.01B | 773.00M |
| Net Income | 438.00M | 377.00M | 619.00M | 302.00M | 456.00M | 273.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.02B | 6.61B | 6.34B | 4.72B | 4.74B | 3.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 677.00M | 1.09B | 1.67B | 831.00M | 692.00M | 573.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.91B | 1.93B | 2.09B | 1.47B | 1.63B | 1.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.23B | 3.00B | 3.05B | 2.31B | 2.46B | 2.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.78B | 3.60B | 3.29B | 2.40B | 2.28B | 1.78B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -582.09M | -283.16M | -12.00M | -183.00M | 172.00M | 433.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 505.18M | 684.62M | 435.00M | 575.00M | 619.00M | 638.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -587.10M | -410.54M | -344.00M | -446.00M | -575.00M | -499.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 104.44M | -157.84M | 476.00M | -57.00M | -46.00M | -197.47M |
Pampa Energia SA Technical Analysis
Positive
81.85
Price Trends
83.32
Positive
82.83
Positive
79.21
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Negative
57.61
Neutral
83.96
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 81.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.40, below the 50-day MA of 83.32, and above the 200-day MA of 79.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAM.
Pampa Energia SA Risk Analysis
Pampa Energia SA disclosed 99 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pampa Energia SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Pampa Energia SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $5.99B | 11.45 | 0.04% | 5.63% | 8.85% | 191.04% | |
66 Neutral | $2.42B | 5.09 | 28.37% | 2.00% | 13.93% | 231.87% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $4.81B | 10.99 | 12.46% | ― | 7.05% | -36.73% | |
63 Neutral | $4.78B | 70.36 | 4.43% | 7.33% | 16.06% | -88.65% | |
57 Neutral | $2.27B | 21.27 | 8.54% | ― | 30.87% | 121.64% | |
51 Neutral | $2.33B | 17.72 | 8.09% | ― | -8.57% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Pampa Energia SA Corporate Events
Pampa Energía Secures Fitch Upgrade to B+ With Stable Outlook
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Pampa Energía S.A. reported that Fitch Ratings upgraded the company’s long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings from B to B+, while affirming its senior unsecured bonds at B+ with a recovery rating of RR4. The...
Pampa Energía’s Oil and Gas Segment Swings to Profit on Rincón de Aranda Ramp-Up
May 13, 2026
For the three-month period ended March 31, 2026, Pampa Energía’s oil and gas segment delivered a sharp turnaround, with revenue up 69% year on year to U.S.$247 million and segment profit swinging from a U.S.$49 million loss to a U.S.$10...
Pampa Energía Files Q1 2026 Unaudited Results with SEC
May 8, 2026
Pampa Energía S.A. reported unaudited consolidated condensed interim financial statements for the three-month period ended March 31, 2026, showing revenue of ARS 807.8 billion and cost of sales of ARS 548.3 billion, resulting in gross profit ...
Pampa Energía Boosts Q1 2026 Output as Rincón de Aranda Ramps Up Despite Negative Free Cash Flow
May 7, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Pampa Energía filed its May Form 6-K and released materials for its first-quarter 2026 results call, highlighting a sharp operational upswing driven by oil and gas and power generation. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA in U.S. dol...
Pampa Energía Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results and Accelerates Multibillion-Dollar Expansion in Argentina
May 6, 2026
Pampa Energía reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, with sales rising 38% year-on-year to US$573 million and adjusted EBITDA up 48% to US$325 million, as higher shale oil output at Rincón de Aranda, stronger spot margins in...
Pampa Energía Posts Strong Q1 2026 Profit on Higher Revenue Despite Derivatives Hit
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Pampa Energía S.A. filed a Form 6-K in the United States disclosing its unaudited consolidated condensed interim financial statements in U.S. dollars for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The filing shows first-quarter revenue...
Pampa Energía Revamps Board and Cuts Capital After AGM Resolutions
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Pampa Energía’s shareholders approved several corporate governance changes at the company’s Annual General Meeting. The meeting re-elected Gustavo Mariani and Ricardo Alejandro Torres as regular directors and con...
Pampa Energía Shareholders Back 2025 Accounts, Extend Debt Program and Cut Capital
Apr 7, 2026
Pampa Energía held its General Ordinary and Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting virtually on April 7, 2026, approving with near-unanimous votes the consolidated and individual financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, ...
Pampa Energía Raises US$200 Million in Oversubscribed Class 27 Note Issue
Mar 31, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Pampa Energía announced it had successfully issued a new Class 27 note for US$200 million, maturing in 36 months with an annual interest rate of 5.49%. The debt placement was fully allocated and subject to proration because...
Pampa Energía’s 2025 Annual Report Showcases Vaca Muerta Push and Financial Strength
Mar 26, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Pampa Energía filed its 2025 Annual Report, marking its 20th anniversary as a major player in Argentina’s energy sector and detailing a year of rapid upstream and power-generation expansion. In 2025 the company grew h...
Pampa Energía Calls April 7 Virtual Shareholders’ Meeting to Vote on Results, Note Program and Capital Reduction
Mar 9, 2026
Pampa Energía has called a General Ordinary and Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting for April 7, 2026, to be held virtually via Microsoft Teams in line with its bylaws. Shareholders must register their holdings and personal details with...
Pampa Energía Routes 2025 Profits to Reserves, Skips Dividend Ahead of April 7 Meeting
Mar 9, 2026
Pampa Energía has detailed the board’s proposals for its General Ordinary and Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting scheduled for April 7, 2026, covering approval of the 2025 financial statements, treatment of 2025 profits, governan...
Pampa Energía Files 2025 IFRS Financials With Clean Audit and Highlights Key Asset Valuation Judgments
Mar 6, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Pampa Energía S.A. filed a Form 6-K in the United States, presenting its consolidated financial statements in Argentine pesos for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, along with an independent auditor’s re...
Pampa Energía Secures Fitch Credit Upgrade and Positive Outlook
Mar 3, 2026
Pampa Energía S.A., a leading Argentine integrated energy company with operations spanning electricity generation, transmission, distribution and oil and gas, plays a central role in the country’s power and hydrocarbons markets. The com...
Pampa Energía Files Form 6-K with Q4 2025 Results Call Materials
Mar 3, 2026
Pampa Energía S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in early March 2026, covering its status as a foreign issuer and indicating it files annual reports on Form 20-F. The submission, signed by Chief Executive O...
Pampa Energía Files 2025 IFRS Financials and Earns Clean Audit Opinion
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Pampa Energía S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission providing its consolidated financial statements in U.S. dollars as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, along with results for the three-year per...
Pampa Energía Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results as Shale Reserves and Regulatory Tailwinds Bolster Outlook
Mar 2, 2026
Pampa Energía reported results for the fourth quarter and full year ended Dec. 31, 2025, showing Q4 sales of US$507 million, up 16% year on year, driven by higher shale oil output at Rincón de Aranda, improved spot power prices under a n...
Pampa Energía Convenes Virtual Shareholders’ Meeting for April 7, 2026
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Pampa Energía S.A.’s board of directors resolved to convene an Ordinary and Extraordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting for April 7, 2026. The first call is scheduled for 11 a.m. and the second call for noon, and...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.