Pampa Energia SA (PAM) AI Stock Analysis

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Pampa Energia SA

(NYSE:PAM)

Rating:66Neutral

Price Target:

$76.00

▲(12.54% Upside)

Pampa Energia SA's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation, despite bearish technical indicators and mixed earnings call results. The company's profitability and operational efficiency are notable strengths, but challenges in revenue growth and cash flow management pose risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Management

Net debt decreased by US$150mn, highlighting a positive financial management aspect for Pampa Energia.

Market Valuation

Pampa is trading at approximately 3.6x EV/EBITDA, a 15% discount to historical levels, indicating potential value.

Strategic Initiatives

Pampa Energia has joined a project to monetize its shale gas resources through LNG exports, marking its entrance into the LNG market.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

Pampa Energia reported 3Q24 results slightly below estimates, with adj. EBITDA at US$212mn, a 10% decrease from the previous year.

Infrastructure Limitations

Existing export infrastructure is operating close to maximum capacity, which presents a challenge for continued gas production.

Investment Concerns

There is concern regarding the required investments in large-scale projects due to limited visibility on internal rates of return.

Pampa Energia SA (PAM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.61B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)263.80K

Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9

Beta (1Y)0.51

Revenue Growth6.57%

EPS Growth38.25%

CountryUS

Employees2,013

SectorUtilities

Sector Strength64

IndustryIndependent Power Producers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.70

Shares Outstanding54,540,813

10 Day Avg. Volume274,034

30 Day Avg. Volume263,797

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.40

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.49

Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.24

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$76.00

Price Target Upside12.54% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

Pampa Energia SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPampa Energia SA (PAM) is a leading integrated energy company based in Argentina, primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity, as well as the exploration and production of oil and gas. The company operates a diverse portfolio of power generation plants, including thermal, hydroelectric, and renewable energy sources, catering to both residential and industrial customers. Pampa Energia is also involved in the oil and gas sector through its upstream operations, enhancing its position in the energy market.

How the Company Makes MoneyPampa Energia generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of electricity generated by its power plants to the national grid and private customers. The company benefits from regulated tariffs for its electricity sales, which provide a stable revenue base. Additionally, it earns income from oil and gas production activities, including the exploration and extraction of hydrocarbons, which are sold in domestic and international markets. Strategic partnerships with government entities and private sector companies help Pampa Energia secure contracts and expand its operations. The company's focus on renewable energy projects also positions it to capitalize on growing demand for sustainable energy solutions, further diversifying its revenue sources.

Pampa Energia SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of highlights and lowlights, with significant achievements in production ramp-up and infrastructure investments. However, these were tempered by declines in adjusted EBITDA and increased costs, resulting in a balanced sentiment.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Successful Production Ramp-Up

Rincón de Aranda experienced a successful production ramp-up, reaching nearly 16,000 barrels per day from 4 pads with expectations to reach 20,000 barrels per day by Q4 2025.

New Wind Farm Contribution

The new 140 megawatts wind farm PEPE 6, along with higher spot prices, boosted financial figures for the quarter.

CapEx Investments

CapEx surged 134% year-on-year, primarily driven by investments in Rincón de Aranda, totaling $354 million, with $249 million allocated to the development of Rincón de Aranda.

Increased Gas Exports to Chile

Gas exports to Chile increased, reaching 1.1 million cubic meters per day by June, capitalizing on the competitiveness of local gas relative to LNG.

Solid Power Generation Performance

Adjusted EBITDA for power generation increased 5% year-on-year, mainly attributed to PEPE 6 and higher spot prices measured in dollars.

Negative Updates

Decline in Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $239 million, marking a 17% decline year-on-year due to soft gas sales, falling petchem prices, and higher operating expenses.

Reduced Oil and Gas EBITDA

Oil and gas adjusted EBITDA was down 28% year-on-year, largely due to reduced domestic gas sales and increased lifting costs.

Cash Flow Outflow

Free cash flow experienced an outflow of $307 million, driven by CapEx at Rincón de Aranda and increased seasonal working capital requirements.

Lower Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices averaged nearly $62 per barrel in Q2, 14% lower than last year, affected by Brent underperformance.

High Lifting Costs

Lifting costs increased due to temporary facilities and gas treatment fees, with gas lifting costs reaching $1.1 per milliBTU.

Company Guidance

During Pampa Energia's second quarter of 2025 results call, several key metrics and developments were highlighted. The company's adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was reported at $239 million, marking a 17% decline year-on-year due to soft gas sales, falling petrochemical prices, and higher operating expenses. However, contributions from the new 140 MW wind farm PEPE 6, increased gas exports to Chile, and higher production at Rincón de Aranda partially offset these headwinds. CapEx surged 134% year-on-year to $354 million, with $249 million invested in Rincón de Aranda development. The oil and gas adjusted EBITDA was $87 million, down 28% year-on-year due to reduced domestic gas sales and higher lifting costs. Total production averaged 84,000 barrels per day, a 7% year-on-year decrease, but with a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase due to seasonal effects and shale oil production. The company extended its 2029 notes to 2034 with a $140 million recap, achieving the lowest spread over U.S. treasuries in its history. Furthermore, Pampa is targeting to increase production at Rincón de Aranda to 20,000 barrels per day by Q4 2025, with a long-term goal of 45,000 barrels per day by 2027. Lastly, Pampa's power generation segment posted an adjusted EBITDA of $112 million, a 5% year-on-year increase, driven by PEPE 6 performance and higher spot prices.

Pampa Energia SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pampa Energia SA shows strong profitability margins with a solid equity position and moderate leverage. However, revenue volatility and cash flow challenges, particularly negative free cash flow, raise concerns about liquidity.

Income Statement

Positive

Pampa Energia SA has shown a fluctuating revenue trend, with a revenue decrease from 2022 to 2024. Gross profit margin in 2024 was approximately 31.7%, indicating a solid profitability level. However, the net profit margin improved significantly to 32.6% in 2024, suggesting enhanced net income efficiency. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64 for 2024, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 51.8%, reflecting a stable financial structure. ROE for 2024 increased to 16.6%, which signals improved profitability for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Free cash flow showed volatility with negative figures in recent years, indicating potential cash management concerns. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was 0.68 in 2024, suggesting a decent conversion of net income to cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio was negative, highlighting issues in cash generation relative to profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.88B	1.88B	1.73B	1.83B	1.51B	1.07B
Gross Profit	531.92M	597.00M	620.00M	686.00M	555.00M	409.00M
EBITDA	723.63M	511.12M	658.00M	719.00M	641.00M	465.00M
Net Income	451.03M	619.00M	302.00M	456.00M	273.00M	225.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.12B	6.34B	4.72B	4.74B	3.86B	4.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	879.00M	1.67B	835.00M	700.00M	573.00M	491.00M
Total Debt	1.59B	2.09B	1.47B	1.62B	1.45B	1.62B
Total Liabilities	2.63B	3.05B	2.31B	2.46B	2.07B	3.12B
Stockholders Equity	3.48B	3.29B	2.40B	2.28B	1.78B	1.43B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-71.12B	-12.00M	-183.00M	203.00M	523.00M	569.00M
Operating Cash Flow	94.20B	435.00M	575.00M	619.00M	729.00M	693.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-50.82B	-344.00M	-446.00M	-575.00M	-474.00M	-255.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-443.52B	476.00M	-57.00M	-46.00M	-342.00M	-445.00M

Pampa Energia SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price67.53

Price Trends

50DMA

72.27

Negative

100DMA

74.03

Negative

200DMA

78.55

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.85

Positive

RSI

39.73

Neutral

STOCH

17.47

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 67.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.88, below the 50-day MA of 72.27, and below the 200-day MA of 78.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.47 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PAM.

Pampa Energia SA Risk Analysis

Pampa Energia SA disclosed 99 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pampa Energia SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Pampa Energia SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TXNM	69 Neutral	$5.97B	29.16	6.36%	2.84%	10.23%	114.67%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.34B	17.87	5.54%	3.65%	6.63%	11.55%
PAM	66 Neutral	$3.61B	7.91	14.22%	―	6.57%	38.25%
CEPU	65 Neutral	$1.59B	9.63	9.38%	3.31%	-9.20%	-53.99%
AES	65 Neutral	$9.64B	9.56	21.17%	5.17%	-3.19%	30.48%
TLN	65 Neutral	$17.31B	108.19	9.95%	―	125.17%	-74.67%
NRG	57 Neutral	$28.16B	61.60	17.66%	1.19%	2.09%	-74.13%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

PAM

Pampa Energia SA

65.89

9.21

16.25%

NRG

NRG Energy

145.11

67.20

86.25%

TXNM

TXNM Energy

56.64

16.51

41.14%

AES

13.54

-2.45

-15.32%

CEPU

Central Puerto SA

10.30

1.11

12.08%

TLN

Talen Energy Corp

375.15

232.30

162.62%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025