XCel Brands (XELB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.58M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: -46.66%
• EPS Growth: 24.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): -0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 4,806,776
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 289,202
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,611,310
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.42
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.21
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 334.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 40 Underperform
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-13.04% Downside)

XCel Brands' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by declining revenues, persistent losses, and cash flow issues. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with the stock trading below key moving averages and approaching oversold conditions. Valuation metrics are weak, with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. While the earnings call highlighted some strategic initiatives and cost reductions, these are not sufficient to offset the significant financial challenges.

Positive Factors

Influencer-Led Brand Expansion

The expansion into influencer-led brands can significantly boost XCel's market reach and engagement, leveraging social media to drive sales and brand awareness, potentially leading to substantial revenue growth.

Cost Reduction Success

Successful cost reduction initiatives improve margin sustainability and financial health, allowing the company to allocate resources more efficiently and potentially enhance profitability over time.

Strategic Investment and Financing

The strategic investment and insider participation in financing demonstrate management's confidence in future growth opportunities, providing capital for transformative business initiatives.

Negative Factors

Decline in Licensing Revenue

A decline in licensing revenue indicates challenges in maintaining brand partnerships and consumer demand, potentially impacting long-term revenue stability and growth.

Increased Interest and Finance Expenses

Rising interest and finance expenses can strain cash flow and reduce financial flexibility, posing risks to long-term financial stability and operational capacity.

Net Loss for the Quarter

Continued net losses highlight ongoing profitability challenges, which can hinder investment in growth initiatives and affect the company's ability to compete effectively in the market.

XCel Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Xcel Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a media and consumer products company in the United States. The company designs, produces, markets, wholesales, and sells branded apparel, footwear, accessories, jewelry, home goods, and other consumer products; and acquires consumer lifestyle brands, including the Isaac Mizrahi, the LOGO by Lori Goldstein, the Judith Ripka, the Halston Brand, the C Wonder, and other brands, as well as manages the Longaberger brand. It licenses its brands to third parties; and designs, produces, markets, and distributes through an omni-channel retail sales strategy, which include distribution through interactive television, digital live-stream shopping, brick-and-mortar retail, wholesale, and e-commerce channels. The company also offers live streaming, social media and other marketing, and public relations support for its brands. In addition, it markets the Mizrahi brand through www.isaacmizrahi.com; the Halston brand through www.halston.com; the Judith Ripka fine jewelry brand through www.judithripka.com; the C Wonder brand through www.cwonder.com; the Logo Lori Goldstein brand through www.lorigoldstein.com; and the Longaberger brand through www.longaberger.com. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

XCel Brands generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded products across multiple distribution channels. Key revenue streams include wholesale distribution to retail partners, direct-to-consumer sales via e-commerce platforms, and licensing agreements that allow other companies to produce and sell products under XCel's brand names. The company may also earn royalties from licensing agreements, providing a steady income stream. Significant partnerships with major retailers enhance visibility and distribution, contributing to higher sales volumes and overall profitability.

XCel Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XCel Brands faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, persistent losses, and cash flow issues. The balance sheet reflects increased leverage and reduced equity, posing risks to financial stability. The company needs to address these issues to improve its financial health and sustainability.

Income Statement

XCel Brands has experienced a significant decline in revenue over the past few years, with a notable drop from $41.7M in 2019 to $8.3M in 2024. The company has been operating at a loss, with negative net income and EBIT margins. Gross profit margin remains relatively high, indicating some cost control, but overall profitability is severely lacking.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a concerning trend with declining stockholders' equity and increasing debt levels. The debt-to-equity ratio has worsened, indicating higher leverage. The equity ratio has decreased, reflecting reduced financial stability. These factors suggest potential risks in financial health.

Cash Flow

XCel Brands has consistently reported negative operating and free cash flows, indicating challenges in generating cash from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow issues. Financing activities have been a source of cash, but this is not sustainable long-term.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.98M	8.26M	17.75M	25.78M	37.93M	29.45M
Gross Profit	4.98M	7.81M	10.84M	17.80M	27.27M	23.99M
EBITDA	-16.32M	-16.75M	-13.69M	2.68M	-7.24M	-10.91M
Net Income	-21.77M	-22.39M	-21.05M	-5.36M	-13.03M	-13.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.46M	53.76M	71.66M	88.94M	125.78M	123.05M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.49M	1.25M	3.00M	4.61M	4.48M	4.96M
Total Debt	9.27M	13.38M	10.00M	7.21M	44.95M	37.78M
Total Liabilities	15.88M	25.36M	23.49M	18.80M	50.84M	36.80M
Stockholders Equity	18.70M	30.42M	50.03M	70.81M	74.28M	85.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-6.62M	-4.83M	-6.64M	-14.45M	-7.69M	2.44M
Operating Cash Flow	-6.61M	-4.72M	-6.54M	-14.18M	-6.56M	3.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-10.00K	-112.00K	209.00K	44.52M	-4.79M	-702.00K
Financing Cash Flow	8.87M	3.82M	4.73M	-30.95M	10.51M	-2.17M

XCel Brands Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XELB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.97, below the 50-day MA of 1.29, and below the 200-day MA of 1.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XELB.

XCel Brands Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JL	64 Neutral	$21.89M	57.30	20.89%	―	38.26%	201.16%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
NCI	61 Neutral	$7.80M	5.28	16.17%	―	―	―
VNCE	59 Neutral	$46.69M	-2.46	-33.24%	―	2.58%	-502.04%
JRSH	56 Neutral	$38.61M	64.14	0.99%	6.57%	12.25%	―
CULP	41 Neutral	$47.52M	-4.35	-18.32%	―	-7.76%	49.20%
XELB	40 Underperform	$5.58M	-0.15	-78.27%	―	-46.66%	24.23%

XCel Brands Corporate Events

XCel Brands Approves Equity Plan Amendment at Annual Meeting

At XCel Brands‘ Annual Meeting of Stockholders on December 3, 2025, the stockholders voted to elect five directors, approve an amendment to the 2021 Equity Incentive Plan increasing authorized shares from 400,000 to 1,150,000, and ratify Wolf & Company, PC as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The approval of the amended equity plan led to the granting of restricted shares and stock options to directors and executives, potentially enhancing their alignment with shareholder interests and impacting the company’s incentive structure.

XCel Brands Updates Loan and Security Agreement

On October 7, 2025, Xcel Brands, Inc. entered into a Third Amendment and Consent to Loan and Security Agreement with various parties, including FEAC Agent, LLC, as administrative and collateral agent. The amendment involved the consent to transfer and release of liens on equity interests of IM Topco, LLC, a reduction of the liquid asset covenant requirement to $1,000,000, and a prepayment of $250,000, with $140,000 sourced from a blocked account.

XCel Brands Finalizes Settlement Agreement with IM Topco

On September 26, 2025, Xcel Brands, Inc. entered into a Settlement Agreement with IM Topco, LLC and its subsidiaries, resulting in a Membership Interest Transfer Agreement. This agreement led to Xcel-CT MFG, LLC, a subsidiary of Xcel Brands, being released from liabilities under a previous License Termination Agreement. Additionally, Xcel Brands secured a capital appreciation right to receive 15% of net consideration exceeding $46 million from a capital transaction involving IM Topco by September 1, 2032. As part of the Transfer Agreement, Xcel Brands agreed to transfer its 17.5% equity interests in IM Topco to IMWHP2 LLC by October 1, 2025.