XCel Brands (XELB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.16M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: -46.66%
• EPS Growth: 24.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): -0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 4,806,776
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 289,202
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,611,310
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.42
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.91
• 1Y Price Target: $7.00
• Price Target Upside: 369.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(0.67% Upside)

The score is primarily weighed down by weak financial performance (shrinking revenue base, large losses, and ongoing cash burn with eroding equity). Technicals show only a modest near-term improvement while the longer-term trend remains weak, and valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no dividend. Offsetting factors include improving adjusted EBITDA and cost actions discussed on the earnings call, plus incremental liquidity from the PIPE financing.

Positive Factors

Cost Reductions & EBITDA Improvement

Meaningful year-over-year improvement in adjusted EBITDA and a 23% drop in direct operating costs indicate management is executing structural cost controls. If sustained, improved operating leverage reduces cash burn and shortens the path to sustainable profitability independent of volatile revenue swings.

High Gross Margins

Consistently high gross margins point to brand pricing power and favorable product economics, typical of licensing and branded apparel. These margins create a durable opportunity to achieve profitability if operating expenses are controlled and scale is gradually restored through royalties and DTC growth.

Flexible $15M Equity Purchase Agreement

A committed, multi‑period equity facility materially improves capital flexibility, allowing management to fund working capital and strategic initiatives on demand. The structure limits investor ownership and forbids shorting, reducing immediate liquidity risk while providing a durable, on‑tap financing option.

Negative Factors

Steep Revenue Contraction

A dramatic multi‑year revenue decline erodes scale, reduces bargaining power with retailers and suppliers, and makes fixed costs harder to cover. Structural revenue loss undermines the brand‑management business model and lengthens the timeline to rebuild sustainable royalties and wholesale traction.

Persistent Negative Cash Flow

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow shows the business is not self‑funding, forcing reliance on external capital. Over months, persistent cash burn constrains investment in marketing and product development, elevates refinancing risk, and can force dilutive financing that impairs long‑term shareholder value.

Material Equity Erosion

Severe erosion of shareholders' equity from sustained losses reduces the company's loss-absorption capacity and borrowing flexibility. A weakened equity base increases funding costs, heightens dilution risk when raising capital, and limits strategic options for acquisitions or investment needed to restore growth.

XCel Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Xcel Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a media and consumer products company in the United States. The company designs, produces, markets, wholesales, and sells branded apparel, footwear, accessories, jewelry, home goods, and other consumer products; and acquires consumer lifestyle brands, including the Isaac Mizrahi, the LOGO by Lori Goldstein, the Judith Ripka, the Halston Brand, the C Wonder, and other brands, as well as manages the Longaberger brand. It licenses its brands to third parties; and designs, produces, markets, and distributes through an omni-channel retail sales strategy, which include distribution through interactive television, digital live-stream shopping, brick-and-mortar retail, wholesale, and e-commerce channels. The company also offers live streaming, social media and other marketing, and public relations support for its brands. In addition, it markets the Mizrahi brand through www.isaacmizrahi.com; the Halston brand through www.halston.com; the Judith Ripka fine jewelry brand through www.judithripka.com; the C Wonder brand through www.cwonder.com; the Logo Lori Goldstein brand through www.lorigoldstein.com; and the Longaberger brand through www.longaberger.com. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

XCel Brands generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded products across multiple distribution channels. Key revenue streams include wholesale distribution to retail partners, direct-to-consumer sales via e-commerce platforms, and licensing agreements that allow other companies to produce and sell products under XCel's brand names. The company may also earn royalties from licensing agreements, providing a steady income stream. Significant partnerships with major retailers enhance visibility and distribution, contributing to higher sales volumes and overall profitability.

XCel Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial profile is stressed: steep multi-year revenue contraction, sizeable ongoing net losses, and continued negative operating/free cash flow. Balance sheet leverage is not extreme, but equity has eroded materially over time, reducing financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Results remain weak with persistent losses and deteriorating scale. Revenue has contracted sharply over time (from $37.9M in 2021 to $8.3M in 2024 and $5.0M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), and profitability is deeply negative in TTM with net losses of ~$21.8M on just ~$5.0M of revenue. A key positive is very high gross margin in the most recent periods, but operating costs overwhelm gross profit, keeping operating and net margins materially negative.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate and has improved versus 2021 (debt-to-equity ~0.50 in TTM vs ~0.49 in 2021 but down from a higher debt balance), with total debt of ~$9.3M supported by ~$18.7M of equity in TTM. However, equity has declined meaningfully over time (from ~$74.3M in 2021 to ~$19.0M in TTM), reflecting ongoing losses, and returns on equity are sharply negative, indicating continued value erosion despite manageable headline leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a major concern: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently negative in recent years, including TTM operating cash flow of about -$6.6M and free cash flow of about -$6.6M. While free cash flow burn improved versus some prior years (and the TTM decline in free cash flow is less severe than earlier periods), the business is still not self-funding and ongoing losses continue to translate into cash outflows.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.98M	8.26M	17.75M	25.78M	37.93M	29.45M
Gross Profit	4.98M	7.81M	10.84M	17.80M	27.27M	23.99M
EBITDA	-16.32M	-16.75M	-13.69M	2.68M	-7.24M	-10.91M
Net Income	-21.77M	-22.39M	-21.05M	-5.36M	-13.03M	-13.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.46M	53.76M	71.66M	88.94M	125.78M	123.05M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.49M	1.25M	3.00M	4.61M	4.48M	4.96M
Total Debt	9.27M	13.38M	10.00M	7.21M	44.95M	37.78M
Total Liabilities	15.88M	25.36M	23.49M	18.80M	50.84M	36.80M
Stockholders Equity	18.70M	30.42M	50.03M	70.81M	74.28M	85.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-6.62M	-4.83M	-6.64M	-14.45M	-7.69M	2.44M
Operating Cash Flow	-6.61M	-4.72M	-6.54M	-14.18M	-6.56M	3.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-10.00K	-112.00K	209.00K	44.52M	-4.79M	-702.00K
Financing Cash Flow	8.87M	3.82M	4.73M	-30.95M	10.51M	-2.17M

XCel Brands Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.49
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XELB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.34, above the 50-day MA of 1.17, and below the 200-day MA of 1.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XELB.

XCel Brands Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
NCI	61 Neutral	$5.08M	4.55	16.17%	―	―	―
JRSH	56 Neutral	$38.86M	64.56	0.99%	6.75%	12.25%	―
JL	55 Neutral	$21.31M	40.92	17.80%	―	30.48%	30.06%
VNCE	46 Neutral	$36.02M	-1.82	-33.24%	―	2.58%	-502.04%
XELB	45 Neutral	$7.16M	-0.19	-78.27%	―	-46.66%	24.23%
CULP	41 Neutral	$44.57M	-4.13	-18.32%	―	-7.76%	49.20%

XCel Brands Corporate Events

XCel Brands Secures Flexible Equity Financing Agreement

On January 21, 2026, Xcel Brands, Inc. entered into a common stock purchase agreement and related registration rights agreement with White Lion Capital, LLC, under which White Lion committed to purchase up to $15 million of Xcel’s common stock over a 24‑month period, at Xcel’s discretion and subject to trading‑volume, pricing and ownership caps that limit total issuance to 19.99% of pre‑agreement shares outstanding unless shareholder approval or certain pricing thresholds are met. The structure allows Xcel to raise flexible, as‑needed equity capital through various purchase mechanisms (Regular, Rapid and VWAP purchases) for working capital and general corporate purposes, while constraining the investor’s ownership to below 4.99% (or up to 9.99% with notice), prohibiting short selling, and committing Xcel to register the resale of the shares, collectively shaping a controlled but potentially dilutive financing tool that could affect existing shareholders and the company’s future capital‑raising options.

The most recent analyst rating on (XELB) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XCel Brands stock, see the XELB Stock Forecast page.

XCel Brands Secures New PIPE Financing to Boost Liquidity

On December 17, 2025, Xcel Brands entered into a securities purchase agreement for a $2.05 million private investment in public equity, with the private placement closing on December 18, 2025 and involving the sale of common stock or pre-funded warrants and warrants to institutional and accredited investors, including a $100,000 participation by Chairman and CEO Robert W. D’Loren. The transaction, arranged by Wellington Shields & Co. LLC as sole placement agent, is expected to yield approximately $1.75 million in net proceeds that Xcel plans to deploy for working capital and general corporate purposes, and includes resale-registration commitments for the new securities and a 60-day restriction on additional equity issuance, underscoring the company’s effort to bolster liquidity while managing dilution and providing investors with a structured path to eventual resale.

The most recent analyst rating on (XELB) stock is a Sell with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XCel Brands stock, see the XELB Stock Forecast page.

XCel Brands Approves Equity Plan Amendment at Annual Meeting

At XCel Brands‘ Annual Meeting of Stockholders on December 3, 2025, the stockholders voted to elect five directors, approve an amendment to the 2021 Equity Incentive Plan increasing authorized shares from 400,000 to 1,150,000, and ratify Wolf & Company, PC as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The approval of the amended equity plan led to the granting of restricted shares and stock options to directors and executives, potentially enhancing their alignment with shareholder interests and impacting the company’s incentive structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (XELB) stock is a Sell with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XCel Brands stock, see the XELB Stock Forecast page.