Vaxart (VXRT)
OTHER OTC:VXRT
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Vaxart
(OTC:VXRT)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$0.64
▲(78.33% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/17/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (TTM profitability and positive cash flow) and constructive earnings-call factors (partnership validation, strong 2025 revenue, and runway extension), tempered by concerns about durability given contract-driven revenue and historical volatility. Technical signals are mixed and do not currently indicate strong near-term momentum, while valuation looks supportive but depends on earnings sustainability.
Positive Factors
Strategic Partnership
The upfront cash, equity stake and large milestone/royalty pool materially de-risk R&D funding and validate Vaxart's oral vaccine platform. This non-dilutive funding and blue‑chip partner credibility can accelerate development, attract additional collaborators and support program advancement.
Negative Factors
Contract-Driven Revenue
The large revenue inflection in 2025 is largely non‑recurring contract/license income rather than commercial sales, making earnings less predictable. Absent sustainable commercial revenue streams, topline and margins could revert, complicating multi‑period planning and investment decisions.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strategic Partnership
The upfront cash, equity stake and large milestone/royalty pool materially de-risk R&D funding and validate Vaxart's oral vaccine platform. This non-dilutive funding and blue‑chip partner credibility can accelerate development, attract additional collaborators and support program advancement.
Read all positive factors
Vaxart (VXRT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$149.19M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)599.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.9
Beta (1Y)1.86
Revenue Growth784.27%
EPS Growth45.66%
CountryUS
Employees105
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.11
Shares Outstanding240,634,370
10 Day Avg. Volume364,253
30 Day Avg. Volume599,980
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)0.92
Price to Sales (P/S)0.34
P/FCF Ratio10.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.50
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.80
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$304.10M
Vaxart Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vaxart, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, engages in the discovery and development of oral recombinant protein vaccines based on its proprietary oral vaccine platform. The company's product pipeline includes norovirus vaccine, an oral ...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Vaxart Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed several strong positives: a significant strategic partnership with Dynavax (now Sanofi) with meaningful upfront consideration and large potential upside, a substantial year-over-year revenue increase driven by government contracts and the licensing transaction, robust and published norovirus clinical data demonstrating safety and durable mucosal IgA responses (including exploratory infant passive transfer), and active cost management that extends runway into 2027. Offsetting these positives are meaningful execution risks and timing uncertainties: a BARDA stop-work reduced planned Phase 2b enrollment (from 10,000 planned to ~5,400 enrolled), immunogenicity readouts are delayed and contingent on BARDA, the norovirus next study requires partner funding, and the strong 2025 revenue was largely contract-driven rather than recurring commercial revenue. On balance, the highlights—large partnership validation, major revenue pickup, and encouraging clinical data—outweigh the operational and timing challenges, supporting a constructive outlook but with clear dependency on partners and future data readouts.Positive Updates
Strategic Partnership with Dynavax (now Sanofi)
Entered a license and collaboration agreement (Nov 2025) with Dynavax, receiving $25,000,000 upfront and a $5,000,000 equity investment; potential additional $50,000,000 upon Dynavax electing to continue development after Phase 2b FDA submission; total potential deal value up to $700,000,000 including up to $195,000,000 in regulatory milestones, $425,000,000 in sales milestones, and tiered royalties in the low- to mid-teens.
Negative Updates
BARDA Stop-Work Impacted Phase 2b Enrollment
A BARDA-issued stop-work order in August 2025 halted enrollment; the trial was originally designed for 10,000 KP2 cohort subjects but only ~5,400 subjects had been enrolled prior to the stop-work (400 sentinel + ~5,000 KP2), which reduces the originally planned sample size and may affect timing/robustness of efficacy readouts.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Partnership with Dynavax (now Sanofi)
Entered a license and collaboration agreement (Nov 2025) with Dynavax, receiving $25,000,000 upfront and a $5,000,000 equity investment; potential additional $50,000,000 upon Dynavax electing to continue development after Phase 2b FDA submission; total potential deal value up to $700,000,000 including up to $195,000,000 in regulatory milestones, $425,000,000 in sales milestones, and tiered royalties in the low- to mid-teens.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 12‑month top‑line data from the 400‑participant sentinel cohort of the Phase 2b COVID‑19 trial are expected in early Q2 2026 (timing to be agreed with BARDA) and that the larger ~5,000‑subject KP2 cohort efficacy readout is expected in late 2026 with immunogenicity results to follow; BARDA amended the work order to fund follow‑up for roughly 5,400 subjects enrolled prior to the August 2025 stop‑work. They reiterated the Dynavax (now Sanofi) deal economics—$25.0M upfront, $5.0M equity, $50.0M upon Phase 2b continuation, up to $195.0M in regulatory and $425.0M in sales milestones (total potential ~ $700.0M) plus tiered low‑to‑mid‑teens royalties—and said a next‑generation norovirus trial is planned to start in 2026 pending partnership/funding. Financial guidance noted full‑year 2025 revenue of $237.3M (vs. $28.7M in 2024), cash, cash equivalents and investments of $63.8M at year end with runway into 2027, and a lease termination that accelerates exit to 05/15/2026 (vs. prior 03/31/2029) to reduce operating expenses.Vaxart Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 237.26M | 28.70M | 7.38M | 107.00K | 892.00K |
| Gross Profit | 237.26M | 28.70M | 2.88M | 107.00K | -47.86M |
| EBITDA | 28.20M | -54.87M | -72.13M | -100.58M | -66.45M |
| Net Income | 16.33M | -66.95M | -82.47M | -107.76M | -70.47M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 186.08M | 166.39M | 91.83M | 153.85M | 221.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 63.81M | 51.72M | 39.71M | 93.72M | 166.49M |
| Total Debt | 8.98M | 23.28M | 26.51M | 27.42M | 24.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 98.28M | 107.46M | 34.02M | 43.25M | 33.64M |
| Stockholders Equity | 87.80M | 58.92M | 57.80M | 110.60M | 187.53M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.57M | -45.32M | -72.32M | -104.38M | -64.99M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.71M | -44.76M | -70.45M | -94.78M | -59.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 16.63M | -21.32M | 43.95M | -20.41M | -49.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.24M | 56.56M | 15.24M | 17.46M | 125.80M |
Vaxart Technical Analysis
Neutral
0.36
Price Trends
0.66
Negative
0.54
Positive
0.46
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.01
Positive
44.92
Neutral
39.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VXRT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.67, below the 50-day MA of 0.66, and below the 200-day MA of 0.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VXRT.
Vaxart Risk Analysis
Vaxart disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vaxart reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vaxart Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $149.19M | 4.94 | 33.83% | ― | 784.27% | 45.66% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $81.11M | -0.79 | -69.56% | ― | ― | 14.19% | |
47 Neutral | $135.42M | -2.97 | -73.11% | ― | ― | 63.31% | |
46 Neutral | $42.02M | -2.19 | -65.56% | ― | ― | -9.42% | |
45 Neutral | $162.54M | -0.41 | 77.87% | ― | -3.98% | -29.94% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.