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Vaxart
(OTC:VXRT)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$0.60
▲(20.00% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/08/26
VXRT scores above average mainly on improved financial performance (return to strong margins and positive free cash flow) and a low P/E, supported by an earnings update with meaningful clinical safety progress and BARDA funding. The score is held back by trend/volatility factors (below key longer-term moving averages; high beta) and earnings-call risks around declining revenue, limited cash runway into Q2 2027, and dependence on BARDA-controlled disclosure timing ahead of the H1 2027 topline readout.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
Positive operating and free cash flow mark a structural improvement versus prior years, providing a more durable internal funding source for clinical programs. Sustained cash generation reduces immediate dependence on dilutive financings and increases optionality to complete trials and negotiate partnerships over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Limited cash runway into Q2 2027
A runway that extends only to Q2 2027 creates structural timing pressure to secure additional non‑dilutive awards, partner opt‑ins, or equity. Persistent funding uncertainty can force dilutive financings or concessions in partnerships, constraining strategic flexibility and risking delays to program milestones if capital isn't raised in time.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
Positive operating and free cash flow mark a structural improvement versus prior years, providing a more durable internal funding source for clinical programs. Sustained cash generation reduces immediate dependence on dilutive financings and increases optionality to complete trials and negotiate partnerships over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Vaxart (VXRT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$139.63M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)328.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.6
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth201.10%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees65
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding242,835,360
10 Day Avg. Volume319,706
30 Day Avg. Volume328,137
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)0.92
Price to Sales (P/S)0.34
P/FCF Ratio10.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$200.45M
Vaxart Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vaxart, Inc. operates as a biotechnology firm currently in the clinical development phase, concentrating its efforts on identifying and advancing novel oral recombinant protein vaccines. The company leverages its unique proprietary platform for de...
How the Company Makes Money
Vaxart’s revenue, when reported, has primarily come from external funding sources tied to research and development rather than from recurring product sales, because the company has not had an approved commercial vaccine product. Key ways the compa...
Vaxart Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced mix of encouraging clinical and operational developments alongside material financial and timing risks. Key positives include a clean 12‑month safety signal in the sentinel cohort, BARDA’s $29 million contract modification enabling deeper analyses, a fully enrolled ~5,000‑participant main cohort with topline expected H1 2027, governance improvements, and a defined cash runway with flexible financing options. Offsetting these are a ~31.5% year‑over‑year revenue decline, a limited cash runway into Q2 2027 that creates timing pressure for funding or partner opt‑ins, reliance on BARDA for data release timing, uncertainty around the norovirus partnership and development timelines, and that the sentinel cohort was not powered to demonstrate efficacy (symptomatic case counts were similar between arms). On balance, positives (safety readout, BARDA support, large main cohort enrollment, governance actions) are meaningful but are matched by significant near‑term financing and commercialization uncertainties; the overall tone is constructive but cautious.Positive Updates
Positive 12-Month Safety Readout from Phase IIb Sentinel Cohort
In July Vaxart reported positive 12-month safety data from the ~400‑participant sentinel cohort in the Phase IIb COVID-19 trial: 0 vaccine‑related serious health complications and 0 severe or long‑lasting adverse events in either the oral pill or mRNA comparator arms.
Negative Updates
Significant Revenue Decline Year‑over‑Year
Revenue for Q2 2026 was $27.2 million vs $39.7 million in Q2 2025, a decline of $12.5 million (approximately a 31.5% decrease), with revenue primarily from BARDA and $2.9 million from a Dynavax license and collaboration.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Positive 12-Month Safety Readout from Phase IIb Sentinel Cohort
In July Vaxart reported positive 12-month safety data from the ~400‑participant sentinel cohort in the Phase IIb COVID-19 trial: 0 vaccine‑related serious health complications and 0 severe or long‑lasting adverse events in either the oral pill or mRNA comparator arms.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated that top-line efficacy and safety from the Phase IIb main cohort of ~5,000 participants is expected in H1 2027, following positive 12‑month safety data from the 400‑participant sentinel cohort (201 oral pill, 199 mRNA) that showed 0 vaccine‑related serious adverse events, symptomatic COVID in 33 pill vs 30 mRNA recipients and 12 asymptomatic cases in each arm; reported side‑effect rates for the pill were ~20.9% fatigue, 18.9% headache and ~10% loss of appetite versus >60% injection‑site pain, 40.2% tenderness, 35.2% fatigue, 33.2% muscle pain and 28.6% headache for the mRNA comparator. Financially, Vaxart ended Q2 2026 with $64.0M cash and a cash runway into Q2 2027, Q2 revenue was $27.2M (vs $39.7M YoY), R&D expense $33.7M (vs $49.7M), G&A $6.6M, and net loss $13.5M or $0.06/share (vs $15.0M or $0.07/share prior year); management also cited a $29M BARDA contract modification to fund expanded mucosal, genomic and cellular analyses across the 5,000+ cohort, an available $25M Lincoln Park equity facility, and that BARDA controls timing/content of data releases.Vaxart Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 243.06M | 237.26M | 28.70M | 7.38M | 107.00K | 892.00K |
| Gross Profit | 215.88M | 237.26M | 28.70M | 2.88M | 107.00K | -47.86M |
| EBITDA | 59.39M | 28.20M | -54.87M | -72.13M | -100.58M | -66.45M |
| Net Income | 38.59M | 16.33M | -66.95M | -82.47M | -107.76M | -70.47M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 165.19M | 186.08M | 166.39M | 91.83M | 153.85M | 221.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 63.98M | 63.81M | 51.72M | 39.71M | 93.72M | 166.49M |
| Total Debt | 7.81M | 8.98M | 23.28M | 26.51M | 27.42M | 24.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 82.81M | 98.28M | 107.46M | 34.02M | 43.25M | 33.64M |
| Stockholders Equity | 82.37M | 87.80M | 58.92M | 57.80M | 110.60M | 187.53M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 33.38M | 7.57M | -45.32M | -72.32M | -104.38M | -64.99M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 33.98M | 7.71M | -44.76M | -70.45M | -94.78M | -59.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.22M | 16.63M | -21.32M | 43.95M | -20.41M | -49.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.06M | 4.24M | 56.56M | 15.24M | 17.46M | 125.80M |
Vaxart Technical Analysis
Neutral
0.50
Price Trends
0.56
Positive
0.62
Negative
0.56
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
52.13
Neutral
58.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VXRT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.53, below the 50-day MA of 0.56, and below the 200-day MA of 0.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VXRT.
Vaxart Risk Analysis
Vaxart disclosed 93 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vaxart reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vaxart Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $139.63M | 3.63 | 53.04% | ― | 201.10% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
44 Neutral | $64.40M | -0.57 | -59.06% | ― | ― | 49.00% | |
44 Neutral | $86.00M | -1.83 | -72.78% | ― | ― | 73.44% | |
43 Neutral | $23.65M | -0.54 | -84.91% | ― | ― | -28.83% | |
43 Neutral | $44.42M | -0.13 | 73.11% | ― | 6.33% | -102.63% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
VXRT
Vaxart
0.56
0.18
46.58%
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Vaxart Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Vaxart Revamps Board Committees and Governance Structure
Neutral
Jul 28, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Vaxart’s Board of Directors approved a reorganization of its Nominating and Governance Committee and its Compensation Committee, with the changes effective August 1, 2026, underscoring a refreshed governance framework. As p...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vaxart Shareholders Reject Executive Pay at Annual Meeting
Negative
Jul 17, 2026
On July 16, 2026, Vaxart held its annual meeting of stockholders in a virtual-only format, with a quorum representing about 45.7% of outstanding shares. Shareholders approved the election of six directors to serve until the 2027 meeting and ratifi...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Vaxart Reports Positive Safety Data for Oral COVID Vaccine
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
On July 6, 2026, Vaxart reported 12-month topline safety data from the approximately 400-participant sentinel safety cohort of its Phase 2b trial comparing its oral pill COVID-19 vaccine candidate with an approved mRNA vaccine targeting the XBB st...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vaxart Reaches Governance Agreement, Ending Proxy Dispute
Positive
Jul 2, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Vaxart reached a cooperation agreement with a stockholder group that ended a proxy contest ahead of the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. The deal includes the withdrawal of the group’s director nominations and a joint se...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Vaxart Modifies BARDA Contract to Advance Oral COVID-19 Trial
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Vaxart modified its BARDA-funded Project NextGen award to align with the current scope of its Phase 2b comparative trial of an oral COVID-19 pill vaccine versus an FDA-approved mRNA vaccine. Overall funding for the study now tota...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Vaxart Urges Shareholder Support Amid Proxy Contest, Updates Pipeline
Positive
May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Vaxart issued a letter to shareholders and filed preliminary proxy materials ahead of its Annual Meeting scheduled for July 16, 2026, outlining clinical, financial and governance developments over the past year. The company urged ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.