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V2X (VVX)
NYSE:VVX
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V2X
(NYSE:VVX)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$74.00
▲(5.71% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/24/26
The score is driven mainly by improved fundamentals (return to profitability, reduced leverage, positive but uneven cash generation) and constructive 2026 guidance with strong contract momentum. This is tempered by thin margins/cash conversion volatility and a relatively high P/E, while technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Contract wins, backlog and large pipeline
Material multi‑year awards (T‑6) plus an $11.1B backlog and a >$60B qualified pipeline provide durable revenue opportunity and bidding optionality. Large program wins reduce reliance on spot work and create long‑cycle revenue visibility that supports multi‑period planning and capacity investment.
Balance sheet de‑risking and lower leverage
A materially improved leverage profile and lower cash interest reduce financial fragility and increase strategic flexibility. Lower net debt and falling interest costs free capacity for selective bidding, working capital and tech investments, reducing refinance and covenant risks over the medium term.
Scaled revenue and return to profitability with constructive guidance
The company has scaled top line and moved from prior losses to positive adjusted EBITDA and net income. Management’s 2026 guide for continued revenue and EPS expansion suggests structural operational improvement and supports sustainable earnings capacity if execution and award timing hold.
Negative Factors
Thin margins and volatile cash conversion
Narrow operating margins and swings in free cash flow make earnings and reinvestment capacity sensitive to cost overruns, ramp inefficiencies and timing quirks. Persistently thin margins compress buffers against contract execution risk and limit durable free‑cash‑flow growth absent structural margin expansion.
Funded backlog concentration and timing risk
A large portion of backlog is unfunded or timing‑sensitive, leaving near‑term revenue visibility exposed to customer funding, option exercises and award booking. Dependence on a few large programs concentrates execution and cash flow risk, raising sensitivity to contract timing and procurement cadence.
Trailing book‑to‑bill below 1 and award timing uncertainty
A book‑to‑bill under 1 indicates backlog additions lag revenue, so growth depends on timely booking of large awards. Persistent sub‑1 intake or award delays increase the risk of revenue volatility and could strain utilization and margin assumptions if bid success or timing weakens.
V2X (VVX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.18B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)369.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.6
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth5.10%
EPS Growth774.57%
CountryUS
Employees16,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.56
Shares Outstanding31,173,445
10 Day Avg. Volume333,716
30 Day Avg. Volume368,995
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)1.59
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio9.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$74.56Price Target Upside6.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
V2X Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionV2X, Inc. is based in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyV2X generates revenue through multiple streams, including the sale of its V2X communication hardware and software solutions to municipalities and transportation agencies. Additionally, the company earns income from licensing its technology to automotive manufacturers and providing ongoing support and maintenance services. Strategic partnerships with technology firms and government entities amplify its market reach and provide opportunities for joint ventures, further enhancing its revenue potential. Furthermore, V2X engages in consulting services to assist cities in implementing smart mobility solutions, contributing to its overall earnings.
V2X Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Remaining Performance Obligations
Value of contracted customer work the company has committed to deliver but has not yet recognized as revenue. A larger RPO provides visibility into future top-line growth and suggests stronger demand, while declines, high cancellation exposure, or a large portion subject to change indicate revenue at risk. Comparing RPO to current revenue and cash flow helps judge how much growth is already locked in versus dependent on future execution or contract renewals.
Value of contracted customer work the company has committed to deliver but has not yet recognized as revenue. A larger RPO provides visibility into future top-line growth and suggests stronger demand, while declines, high cancellation exposure, or a large portion subject to change indicate revenue at risk. Comparing RPO to current revenue and cash flow helps judge how much growth is already locked in versus dependent on future execution or contract renewals.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyV2X Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive picture: record quarterly and full-year financials, double-digit adjusted EPS and adjusted net income growth, significant contract wins (including two >$1B and a secured T-6 award), improved leverage and strong pipeline and partnerships centered on AI and technology. Headwinds include a sub-1 book-to-bill trailing rate (reliant on large award timing), funded backlog concentration, early-phase margin pressure on new ramps, regional operational fluidity, and timing/protest risk around awards. Management issued a constructive 2026 guide (midpoint ~6% revenue growth, EBITDA and EPS expansion) while acknowledging timing and execution-related uncertainties.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and EBITDA
Q4 revenue reached a record $1.219 billion, up 5% year-over-year; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was a record $88.7 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.3%.
Full Year Top-Line and Profitability Growth
Full-year 2025 revenue grew 4% to $4.48 billion. Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $323.3 million (7.2% margin). Adjusted net income rose 20% to $166.8 million and adjusted diluted EPS increased 21% to $5.24.
Strong Quarterly Operating Cash Flow and Cash Generation
Adjusted operating cash flow in Q4 was $172.4 million; year-to-date net cash provided by operating activities was $182 million and adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $148.3 million, demonstrating robust cash generation.
Balance Sheet Improvement and Lower Interest Costs
Net debt improved by $116 million year-over-year to $758 million, yielding a net leverage ratio of 2.2x (over 1 full turn improvement in 24 months). Cash interest expense fell ~ $27 million year-over-year to $73.7 million for the year; Q4 cash interest was $18.0 million (improved $4.7 million YoY).
Major Contract Wins and Backlog
Delivered 2 contract wins > $1 billion each and 10 awards > $100 million in 2025. Backlog at year-end was $11.1 billion (funded backlog $2.3 billion). The T-6 award (~$4.3 billion) was upheld post-quarter and is expected to be booked in Q1, adding material revenue visibility.
Large Qualified Pipeline and Increased Bid Activity
Qualified pipeline stands at more than $60 billion. Bid velocity increased ~50% in 2025 and company targets an additional ~30% increase in 2026, supporting future revenue opportunities.
2026 Financial Guidance Reflects Continued Growth
2026 guidance: revenue $4.675–$4.825 billion (midpoint $4.75B, ~6% growth year-over-year), adjusted EBITDA $335–$350 million, adjusted diluted EPS $5.50–$5.90 (midpoint ~9% growth), and adjusted operating cash flow $150–$170 million.
Strategic Partnerships and Technology Investments
Announced partnerships with AWS and Google Public Sector (and collaboration with IBM) to apply AI, data automation and smart warehousing to mission solutions; MDA Shield IDIQ and Advanced Technology Support Program IDIQ awards position the company in space/missile defense and rapid tech fielding.
Execution in Mission-Critical Areas
Strong wins and execution in training, foreign military sales, rapid prototyping, F-16 modernization and classified cyber programs demonstrate alignment with national security priorities and customer confidence (T-6 cited as a ~$4.3B milestone program).
Negative Updates
Book-to-Bill Below 1 Trailing Twelve Months
Trailing 12-month book-to-bill was 0.9 (below 1.0). Management expects book-to-bill to be above 1 in 2026, but achieving that is dependent in part on timing and booking of large awards such as T-6.
Funded Backlog Concentration and Timing Risk
Total backlog was $11.1 billion but funded backlog was only $2.3 billion at year-end; the T-6 award (~$4.3B) was not included in year-end backlog and booking/timing and option exercise decisions could affect near-term revenue visibility.
Early-Phase Margin Pressure on New Programs
Several programs (including T-6) are expected to be margin-dilutive in early phases as they ramp and reengineer operations; management does not expect material margin improvement from these ramps in 2026 and notes some new programs start below company composite margins.
Regional & Operational Uncertainty in Middle East
Activity in the Middle East is described as 'fluid' with employee safety and operational continuity the immediate priority; potential opportunities or disruptions in the region were not assumed in the 2026 guidance and could present variability.
Recompete Risk and Award Timing Uncertainty
Recompetes represent roughly 3% of 2026 revenue at the midpoint; timing of awards, protest risk and cadence of government procurement could affect execution against guidance.
Cash Conversion Nuance
Adjusted operating cash flow-to-EBITDA conversion declined vs 2024 (midpoint guidance implies ~47% conversion of adjusted EBITDA), partly due to an extra payroll in 2025 (~$50 million impact). This tempers near-term free-cash-flow comparisons despite strong underlying cash generation.
Indo-Pacific/Training Demand Below Historical Levels
Management noted training activity in the Indo-Pacific was flat to slightly down and did not materialize to historical levels in 2025, which could limit upside in that region in the near term.
Company Guidance
V2X's 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $4.675–4.825 billion (midpoint $4.75B, ~6% growth), adjusted EBITDA of $335–350M, adjusted diluted EPS of $5.50–5.90 (midpoint ≈+9%), and adjusted net cash provided by operating activities of $150–170M (guide assumes an extra payroll period worth ~ $50M impacting cash flow). The company expects cash interest of ≈$69M, other expenses of ~$15M, capex of ~$25M, and ~3% of revenue at the midpoint from recompetes; backlog stood at $11.1B (funded backlog $2.3B) excluding the ~$4.3B T‑6 award to be booked in Q1, trailing 12‑month book‑to‑bill was 0.9 with book‑to‑bill expected >1 in 2026. For context, 2025 results included revenue $4.48B, adjusted EBITDA $323.3M (7.2% margin), adjusted net income $166.8M, adjusted diluted EPS $5.24, net debt improvement of $116M to $758M, and net leverage of 2.2x.V2X Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue has grown materially and profitability improved versus prior losses, but margins remain thin and gross margin has drifted lower. The balance sheet looks de-risked with much lower leverage, while cash flow is positive but volatile with modest cash conversion.Income Statement
Revenue has scaled materially over the last several years and continued to grow in 2024–2025, supporting a positive top-line trajectory. Profitability has improved from losses in 2022–2023 to positive net income in 2024–2025, but margins remain thin (low single-digit EBITDA margin and ~1–2% net margin in 2025), leaving results sensitive to execution and cost pressure. Gross margin has also drifted lower versus 2022, which limits operating leverage despite higher sales.64
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage improved significantly by 2025, with very low debt relative to equity, which materially reduces financial risk versus 2022–2024 when debt levels were high. Equity has grown over time, supporting balance-sheet resilience. The key watch-out is the sharp shift in debt profile year-to-year (high leverage historically, then very low in 2025), which may reflect a major capital structure change that investors would want to validate for sustainability.70
Positive
Cash Flow
The business is generating positive operating cash flow and free cash flow across the period shown, and free cash flow has generally tracked earnings well (free cash flow to net income near 1.0 in 2024–2025). However, cash generation is volatile: free cash flow growth swung from strong gains in 2023–2024 to a steep decline in 2025. Operating cash flow relative to revenue remains modest, implying limited cash conversion and less cushion if profitability softens.58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.48B | 4.32B | 3.96B | 2.89B | 1.78B |
| Gross Profit | 373.38M | 342.96M | 334.86M | 295.01M | 160.42M |
| EBITDA | 298.37M | 262.88M | 212.20M | 118.40M | 78.57M |
| Net Income | 77.88M | 34.68M | -22.57M | -14.33M | 45.73M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.39B | 3.23B | 3.08B | 3.23B | 889.46M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 368.99M | 268.32M | 72.65M | 116.07M | 38.51M |
| Total Debt | 1.17B | 1.15B | 1.16B | 1.33B | 151.16M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.30B | 2.20B | 2.09B | 2.24B | 539.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.08B | 1.03B | 990.80M | 997.08M | 350.09M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 181.99M | 242.45M | 162.95M | 81.07M | 51.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 181.99M | 254.24M | 187.97M | 93.50M | 61.34M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -29.58M | -28.65M | -22.65M | 175.96M | -12.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -51.48M | -24.50M | -211.02M | -193.24M | -75.58M |
V2X Technical Analysis
Positive
70.00
Price Trends
63.05
Positive
59.84
Positive
55.45
Positive
Market Momentum
1.37
Positive
59.01
Neutral
63.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VVX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.42, above the 50-day MA of 63.05, and above the 200-day MA of 55.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VVX.
V2X Risk Analysis
V2X disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. V2X reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
V2X Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $1.71B | 38.13 | 14.17% | 0.90% | 19.94% | 33.38% | |
68 Neutral | $2.18B | 28.59 | 7.38% | ― | 5.10% | 774.57% | |
65 Neutral | $1.88B | -53.84 | -5.27% | ― | 3.16% | -213.56% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $2.82B | -585.04 | -1.72% | ― | 6.19% | 52.10% | |
58 Neutral | $1.64B | -14.99 | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
56 Neutral | $3.84B | -10.12 | ― | ― | 8.07% | 33.37% |
* Industrials Sector Average
VVX
V2X
70.00
21.33
43.83%
ATRO
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DCO
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125.80
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CDRE
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27.76%
LUNR
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18.90
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VOYG
Voyager Technologies, Inc. Class A
27.55
-21.95
-44.34%
V2X Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
V2X expands board with experienced defense industry leaders
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
On January 7, 2026, V2X, Inc.’s board of directors expanded its size from seven to ten members and appointed Nicole B. Theophilus, Gerard A. Fasano, and Ross S. Niebergall as Class I, II, and III directors, respectively, assigning them to key committees including Compensation and Human Capital, Audit, and Nominating and Governance. The new directors bring substantial executive and technical experience from major industrial, technology, and defense companies such as Wabtec, Leidos, Lockheed Martin, L3Harris, and Raytheon, and will participate in V2X’s standard non-employee director compensation program, a move that strengthens the company’s governance structure and signals an emphasis on growth, human capital, and defense-focused innovation for stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (VVX) stock is a Buy with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on V2X stock, see the VVX Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.