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Ventas (VTR)
NYSE:VTR

Ventas (VTR) AI Stock Analysis

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Ventas

(NYSE:VTR)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$68.00
▲(8.45%Upside)
Ventas's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are offset by technical indicators suggesting bearish momentum and a high P/E ratio. While future prospects are promising, the current valuation and market trends present challenges.
Positive Factors
Dividends
Ventas Inc's Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, representing a 7% increase.
Financial Performance
Ventas Inc improved its 2025 outlook for Normalized FFO per share to $3.41, which is a 7% increase year-over-year, led by SHOP.
Market Position
VTR is well positioned to benefit from limited senior housing deliveries and a growing 80+ population.
Negative Factors
Guidance
Shares may initially react negatively given the beat and improved acquisitions without a guidance bump.
Occupancy
Occupancy is below expectations due to elevated mortality rates.
Research Risks
Research is also a risk given lab/NIH pressures.

Ventas (VTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ventas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVentas, an S&P 500 company, operates at the intersection of two powerful and dynamic industries: healthcare and real estate. As one of the world's foremost Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT), we use the power of capital to unlock the value of real estate, partnering with leading care providers, developers, research and medical institutions, innovators and healthcare organizations whose success is buoyed by the demographic tailwind of an aging population. For more than twenty years, Ventas has followed a successful strategy that endures: combining a high-quality diversified portfolio of properties and capital sources to manage through cycles, working with industry leading partners, and a collaborative and experienced team focused on producing consistent growing cash flows and superior returns on a strong balance sheet, ultimately rewarding Ventas shareholders. As of September 30, 2020, Ventas owned or managed through unconsolidated joint ventures approximately 1,200 properties.
How the Company Makes MoneyVentas makes money primarily through leasing its properties to a diverse range of tenants in the healthcare and senior living sectors. The company's revenue model involves collecting rental income from its extensive portfolio of real estate assets, which includes senior housing facilities, medical office buildings, and research and innovation centers. Additionally, Ventas engages in property development and redevelopment, which can enhance the value of its assets and generate additional income. The company may also enter into strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its portfolio and explore new revenue opportunities. Ventas is influenced by factors such as demographic trends, healthcare demand, and the regulatory environment, which can impact its occupancy rates and rental income.

Ventas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -10.53%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights Ventas's strong first-quarter performance, driven by significant growth in their senior housing segment and increased investment activities. While the company faces some challenges, such as seasonal move-outs and research segment performance, the overall outlook remains positive due to favorable demographic trends and strategic portfolio management.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong First Quarter Financial Performance
Ventas delivered $0.84 of normalized FFO per share in the first quarter, an increase of approximately 8% year-over-year, driven by their senior housing operating portfolio.
Significant Growth in Senior Housing Segment
SHOP's 14% year-over-year cash same store NOI growth was driven by meaningful increases in occupancy and rate. The U.S. SHOP portfolio showed occupancy growth of 330 basis points and NOI growth of 16%.
Increased Investment Activity
Ventas increased their full-year investment guidance to $1.5 billion from their original $1 billion, having closed $900 million in senior housing investments year-to-date.
Favorable Demographic Trends
The over-80 population is projected to increase significantly, creating strong demand for senior housing. The current supply constraints, with new senior housing units at the lowest on record, present a favorable environment for Ventas.
Enhanced Portfolio Composition
Ventas has transitioned 45 Brookdale communities to SHOP and introduced new operators, with expectations to double the NOI from approximately $50 million to over $100 million.
Negative Updates
Seasonal and Clinical Move-Outs Impact
The company experienced elevated clinical move-outs in March, causing the starting occupancy point for the second quarter to be lower than expected.
Research Segment Challenges
The research portfolio experienced a $200,000 reduction in NOI due to lower occupancy, with ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties contributing to the challenges.
Company Guidance
In the Ventas First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance for strong financial performance driven by their senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP), which saw a 14% year-over-year cash same-store NOI growth. This growth was fueled by significant increases in occupancy and rates, with SHOP delivering $0.84 of normalized FFO per share in the first quarter, marking an 8% increase. The company projected a 7% normalized FFO per share growth for the full year 2025. Ventas also highlighted a 7.4% revenue growth within SHOP, supported by a 290 basis point increase in same-store SHOP occupancy. The company's investment activity is set to expand, with a raised full-year investment guidance from $1 billion to $1.5 billion in senior housing communities, expected to offer 7% to 8% year-one NOI yields and low-to-mid teens unlevered IRRs. The call reaffirmed a robust financial profile with a 3% dividend yield and improved leverage and liquidity, positioning Ventas favorably in the REIT space.

Ventas Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ventas exhibits a robust financial position with consistent revenue growth and improving profitability. Although leverage is high, it aligns with REIT industry norms. Strong cash flow management supports future investments and debt servicing.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Ventas shows a consistent revenue growth trajectory, with a notable improvement in net income over the TTM period compared to the prior year. The gross profit margin and EBITDA margin indicate robust operational efficiency, although the net profit margin is relatively modest. The EBIT margin is stable, reflecting strong earnings before interest and taxes.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's balance sheet indicates a substantial debt load with a debt-to-equity ratio above 1, which is common in the REIT industry but still poses potential risks. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced capital structure. Return on equity shows improvement, signifying better utilization of equity capital.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Ventas demonstrates strong cash flow management, with a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient conversion of income into cash. Free cash flow growth is positive, supported by disciplined capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio suggests effective cash generation relative to net earnings.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
5.08B4.92B4.50B4.13B3.83B3.80B
Gross Profit
1.86B2.10B770.72M1.85B1.74B1.86B
EBIT
767.32M681.23M665.12M454.08M389.30M592.58M
EBITDA
1.94B1.87B1.83B1.65B1.60B1.72B
Net Income Common Stockholders
142.33M81.15M-40.97M-40.93M49.01M439.15M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
182.34M897.85M508.79M122.56M149.72M413.33M
Total Assets
26.03B26.19B24.73B24.16B24.72B23.93B
Total Debt
12.92B13.74B13.69B12.92B12.22B12.11B
Net Debt
12.74B12.84B13.18B12.79B12.08B11.69B
Total Liabilities
14.51B15.36B14.88B13.94B13.77B13.65B
Stockholders Equity
11.47B10.77B9.49B10.15B10.85B10.18B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
877.42M725.78M935.13M666.09M593.15M921.53M
Operating Cash Flow
1.38B1.33B1.12B1.12B1.03B1.45B
Investing Cash Flow
-3.13B-2.38B-184.66M-859.22M-724.14M154.29M
Financing Cash Flow
1.30B1.45B-543.75M-283.93M-558.47M-1.30B

Ventas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price62.70
Price Trends
50DMA
65.35
Negative
100DMA
65.40
Negative
200DMA
63.42
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.67
Negative
RSI
39.22
Neutral
STOCH
19.18
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VTR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 62.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.60, below the 50-day MA of 65.35, and below the 200-day MA of 63.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.18 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VTR.

Ventas Risk Analysis

Ventas disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ventas reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ventas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$99.32B163.723.52%1.75%23.31%36.07%
78
Outperform
$5.73B32.567.02%4.48%43.27%80.97%
OHOHI
74
Outperform
$10.71B23.2010.53%7.24%10.56%45.37%
DODOC
69
Neutral
$12.12B42.973.26%7.16%23.65%12.82%
VTVTR
64
Neutral
$84.88B189.541.36%3.06%10.00%
61
Neutral
$2.84B10.850.42%9.90%5.94%-21.26%
HRHR
49
Neutral
$5.29B-6.83%8.24%-7.26%18.45%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VTR
Ventas
62.70
13.80
28.22%
DOC
Healthpeak Properties
17.05
-1.06
-5.85%
WELL
Welltower
153.18
52.86
52.69%
OHI
Omega Healthcare
37.00
6.22
20.21%
HR
Healthcare Realty Trust
15.05
0.14
0.94%
CTRE
CareTrust REIT
29.88
6.04
25.34%

Ventas Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ventas Amends ATM Sales Agreement to $2.25 Billion
Neutral
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Ventas, Inc. announced an amendment to its ATM Sales Agreement with multiple financial institutions, increasing the aggregate gross sales price of common stock available for issuance to $2.25 billion. This amendment allows Ventas to offer and sell additional shares of common stock, potentially impacting its financial strategy and market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTR) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ventas stock, see the VTR Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Ventas Realty Issues $500 Million in Senior Notes
Neutral
Jun 3, 2025

On June 3, 2025, Ventas Realty, a subsidiary of Ventas, Inc., successfully issued and sold $500 million in 5.100% Senior Notes due 2032. The proceeds from this offering are intended for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment, which could impact the company’s financial flexibility and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTR) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ventas stock, see the VTR Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ventas Approves Key Amendments at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 15, 2025

On May 13, 2025, Ventas, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where key amendments to its Certificate of Incorporation were approved. These amendments include increasing the number of authorized common shares from 600 million to 1.2 billion and limiting the monetary liability of certain officers under Delaware law. The changes aim to enhance corporate governance and provide flexibility for future growth, potentially impacting shareholder value and company operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTR) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ventas stock, see the VTR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.