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Ventas
(NYSE:VTR)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$105.00
▲(23.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operating fundamentals and cash generation, reinforced by a positive earnings call with raised FFO guidance and strong SHOP operating metrics. Technicals also support the view with an uptrend across major moving averages, while the main constraint is valuation (very high P/E) and the balance-sheet leverage/earnings volatility noted in the financial statements.
Positive Factors
SHOP operational momentum
Sustained double-digit SHOP same-store NOI growth, rising occupancy and RevPOR reflect durable demand and pricing power in senior housing. This operational momentum improves cash flow predictability, supports margin expansion, and underpins scalable returns on new investments over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage
Leverage materially exceeds conservative REIT levels and net leverage (net debt/EBITDA ~5.0x) leaves less margin for rising rates or weaker operating performance. The noted TTM debt reporting inconsistency raises uncertainty around true indebtedness and constrains credit flexibility over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
SHOP operational momentum
Sustained double-digit SHOP same-store NOI growth, rising occupancy and RevPOR reflect durable demand and pricing power in senior housing. This operational momentum improves cash flow predictability, supports margin expansion, and underpins scalable returns on new investments over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Ventas Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Separates revenue into categories like contractual rent, operating income from managed communities, and fees, clarifying which cash flows are recurring versus variable. For investors in Ventas, this helps judge dividend sustainability and the sensitivity of revenue to occupancy, reimbursement, or management performance.
Separates revenue into categories like contractual rent, operating income from managed communities, and fees, clarifying which cash flows are recurring versus variable. For investors in Ventas, this helps judge dividend sustainability and the sensitivity of revenue to occupancy, reimbursement, or management performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVentas (VTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$47.89B
Dividend Yield2.05%
Average Volume (3M)3.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)171.9
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth20.67%
EPS Growth67.64%
CountryUS
Employees542
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Healthcare Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.56
Shares Outstanding486,169,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,939,755
30 Day Avg. Volume3,750,592
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.80
Price to Book (P/B)2.81
Price to Sales (P/S)6.04
P/FCF Ratio26.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$98.65Price Target Upside15.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)0.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.81B
Ventas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
As an S&P 500 company, Ventas operates strategically at the nexus of the dynamic healthcare and real estate industries. We stand as one of the world's foremost Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), utilizing financial capital to unlock property v...
How the Company Makes Money
Ventas primarily makes money by owning healthcare-related real estate and earning cash flows from it in several ways. (1) Rental and lease income: For properties leased to third-party operators (e.g., many medical office, outpatient, and similar a...
Ventas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 27, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial momentum driven by SHOP: double-digit SHOP NOI growth, meaningful occupancy and rate improvements, margin expansion, raised FFO guidance, robust liquidity, and an active, relationship-driven acquisition pipeline (including the $540M Revel value-add acquisition). Risks noted were manageable: Q1 weather-related operating expense pressure, several lease-up assets (including Revel) that need execution, increased transaction competition with cap-rate compression, and dependence on the May–September selling season to sustain full-year targets. On balance, highlights substantially outweighed the lowlights as management increased guidance, strengthened the balance sheet, and articulated a scalable operating platform and pipeline.Positive Updates
Strong SHOP Same-Store NOI Growth
Senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP) same-store NOI increased over 15% year-over-year in Q1, marking the fifth consecutive year of double-digit annual SHOP NOI growth and prompting an increase in SHOP same-store growth guidance to 16% at the midpoint (from 15%).
Negative Updates
Operating Expense Pressure
Total operating expenses increased 5.8% year-over-year in Q1 (company full-year OpEx guide of 5.5% includes Q1 weather-related costs). Management cited winter-storm-related expenses and higher volume as drivers, which partially compress margins absent continued revenue gains.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong SHOP Same-Store NOI Growth
Senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP) same-store NOI increased over 15% year-over-year in Q1, marking the fifth consecutive year of double-digit annual SHOP NOI growth and prompting an increase in SHOP same-store growth guidance to 16% at the midpoint (from 15%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ventas raised its 2026 outlook, increasing normalized FFO per share guidance to a range of $3.82–$3.89 (midpoint $3.86, up $0.03 from prior) — a bridge driven by stronger organic SHOP performance and accretive senior housing investments (+$0.04) partly offset by ~$0.01 from a higher forward interest rate curve — and now expects total company same‑store cash NOI growth of nearly 10% at the midpoint (driven by SHOP same‑store NOI guidance of 16% at the midpoint, up from 15%). Management is modeling SHOP revenue growth of ~8.75% and roughly 300 bps of SHOP occupancy improvement for the year (Q1 SHOP same‑store NOI was >15%; total company same‑store property NOI grew ~9% y/y; Q1 normalized FFO was $0.94), with Q1 same‑store average occupancy at 90.4% (U.S. same‑store occupancy +370 bps) and RevPOR +5% y/y (in‑house rate increases ~8%). Operating metrics in Q1 included NOI margin expansion of 170 bps to 30% and a 50% incremental margin; operating expenses were up 5.8% in Q1 with a full‑year OpEx guide of ~5.5%. On capital, Ventas increased 2026 investment guidance to $3.0 billion (from $2.5B), has closed $1.7B year‑to‑date, expects many deals to yield low‑ to mid‑teens unlevered IRRs (ex‑Revel year‑one NOI yield ~6.9%; reported all‑in around ~6.5% including Revel), and finished Q1 with ~$5.5B of liquidity, net debt/EBITDA ~5.0x (20 bps sequential improvement) and roughly $2.4B of equity raised/designated for 2026 (including $800M settled and $1.6B forward).Ventas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.13B | 5.83B | 4.92B | 4.50B | 4.13B | 3.83B |
| Gross Profit | -261.17M | -344.22M | 2.10B | 1.94B | 1.85B | 1.74B |
| EBITDA | 2.45B | 2.24B | 1.94B | 1.95B | 1.62B | 1.72B |
| Net Income | 260.43M | 251.38M | 81.15M | -40.97M | -47.45M | 49.01M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.69B | 27.59B | 26.19B | 24.73B | 24.16B | 24.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 183.61M | 741.07M | 897.85M | 508.79M | 122.56M | 149.72M |
| Total Debt | 12.73B | 13.22B | 13.74B | 13.69B | 12.49B | 12.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.50B | 15.01B | 15.36B | 15.18B | 13.94B | 13.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.12B | 12.53B | 10.77B | 9.49B | 10.15B | 10.85B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 477.43M | 1.32B | 1.06B | 935.13M | 926.34M | 858.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.75B | 1.68B | 1.34B | 1.19B | 1.15B | 1.04B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.91B | -2.73B | -2.39B | -239.20M | -882.33M | -764.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.11B | 875.73M | 1.45B | -563.88M | -289.13M | -535.97M |
Ventas Technical Analysis
Positive
85.10
Price Trends
87.29
Positive
85.74
Positive
80.82
Positive
Market Momentum
2.85
Negative
74.10
Negative
91.28
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 85.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.45, below the 50-day MA of 87.29, and above the 200-day MA of 80.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.10 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VTR.
Ventas Risk Analysis
Ventas disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ventas reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ventas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $172.84B | 119.45 | 3.51% | 1.51% | 37.51% | -160.87% | |
70 Outperform | $5.04B | 31.06 | 5.61% | 6.47% | 13.50% | 7.25% | |
69 Neutral | $47.89B | 171.86 | 2.10% | 2.45% | 20.67% | 67.64% | |
69 Neutral | $15.75B | 70.67 | 2.88% | 7.73% | 2.71% | -19.70% | |
69 Neutral | $14.77B | 23.17 | 12.40% | 6.11% | 13.95% | 27.68% | |
66 Neutral | $7.36B | ― | -4.34% | 6.56% | -6.44% | 46.41% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
VTR
Ventas
97.18
31.41
47.75%
DOC
Healthpeak Properties
22.19
4.39
24.63%
WELL
Welltower
245.04
85.86
53.94%
OHI
Omega Healthcare
50.61
13.94
38.00%
SBRA
Sabra Healthcare REIT
21.98
4.66
26.93%
HR
Healthcare Realty Trust
21.28
5.59
35.65%
Ventas Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Ventas Announces General Counsel Transition and Interim Successor
Neutral
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Ventas, Inc. announced that Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Ethics Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary Carey S. Roberts has notified the company of her intention to resign effective June 26, 2026, to become Sen...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Ventas Expands ATM Program to Bolster Capital Flexibility
Positive
May 15, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Ventas finalized a separation and release agreement with retiring executive Peter J. Bulgarelli, under which he will receive a prorated 2026 bonus in exchange for a release of claims and adherence to restrictive covenants, marking...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.