Ventas (VTR)
NYSE:VTR
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Ventas
(NYSE:VTR)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$89.00
▲(6.41% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/10/26
The score reflects improving fundamentals and strong cash flow with upbeat 2026 guidance (especially SHOP growth) as the main positives. These are tempered by balance-sheet leverage/low ROE and a premium valuation (very high P/E). Technicals are supportive overall but appear overbought, adding near-term pullback risk.
Positive Factors
Cash generation strength
Consistently strong operating and free cash flow (FCF ~$1.28B; OCF ~$1.65B) provides durable internal funding for reinvestment, dividends and debt service. FCF materially exceeded net income in 2025, supporting capital deployment flexibility and cushioning earnings volatility for multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and refinancing exposure
Material leverage (debt roughly matching equity and pro-forma leverage near ~5x) plus sizable 2026 maturities heightens interest-rate and refinancing risk. Higher funding costs or tighter markets could pressure net income and FFO margins for several quarters, constraining discretionary investment and payout flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation strength
Consistently strong operating and free cash flow (FCF ~$1.28B; OCF ~$1.65B) provides durable internal funding for reinvestment, dividends and debt service. FCF materially exceeded net income in 2025, supporting capital deployment flexibility and cushioning earnings volatility for multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
Ventas (VTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$40.88B
Dividend Yield2.45%
Average Volume (3M)3.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)140.1
Beta (1Y)0.25
Revenue Growth15.69%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees498
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Healthcare Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding474,965,200
10 Day Avg. Volume2,755,369
30 Day Avg. Volume3,003,718
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.80
Price to Book (P/B)2.81
Price to Sales (P/S)6.04
P/FCF Ratio26.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-152.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$91.50Price Target Upside9.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)0.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.53B
Ventas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ventas, an S&P 500 company, operates at the intersection of two powerful and dynamic industries: healthcare and real estate. As one of the world's foremost Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT), we use the power of capital to unlock the value of re...
How the Company Makes Money
Ventas generates revenue primarily through rental income from its properties, as it leases its healthcare facilities to various operators and healthcare providers. The company's revenue model is based on long-term leases, often with built-in rent ...
Ventas Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Ventas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance: robust SHOP organic growth (double-digit same-store NOI increases), meaningful FFO growth, aggressive and accretive acquisition activity, sizable capital raises, improved leverage metrics and a dividend increase. Management acknowledged manageable near-term headwinds including increased competition and cap-rate compression, higher interest expense from upcoming debt maturings, modest weather-driven expense, increased CapEx and equity-funded dilution tied to the growth strategy. On balance, the highlights (sustained organic growth, scale, capital access and clear guidance) materially outweigh the lowlights, which are largely execution and market-structure risks that management is actively addressing.Positive Updates
Strong FFO Growth and Earnings Execution
Normalized FFO per share of $3.48 for full-year 2025, up 9% year-over-year and at the high end of guidance; fourth-quarter normalized FFO per share grew ~10% year-over-year. 2026 normalized FFO per share guidance of $3.78–$3.88 (midpoint $3.83), representing ~8% year-over-year growth on a comparable basis.
Negative Updates
Increased Competition and Cap-Rate Compression
Management noted increased competition for senior housing assets with reported acquisition blended cap rates drifting below 7% on some deals, indicating cap-rate compression and upward pressure on purchase prices that could compress future returns.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong FFO Growth and Earnings Execution
Normalized FFO per share of $3.48 for full-year 2025, up 9% year-over-year and at the high end of guidance; fourth-quarter normalized FFO per share grew ~10% year-over-year. 2026 normalized FFO per share guidance of $3.78–$3.88 (midpoint $3.83), representing ~8% year-over-year growth on a comparable basis.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ventas forecasted 2026 normalized FFO of $3.78–$3.88 per share ($3.83 midpoint, ~+8% YoY) and net income near $0.57 per share while targeting $2.5B of equity‑funded senior housing investments (>$800M closed YTD); SHOP is the growth engine with same‑store SHOP NOI guided to +13%–17% (15% midpoint), SHOP occupancy +270 bps, RevPOR +5% (backed by 8% in‑house rent increases), OpEx +5% and ~50% incremental margin (expected in the 50s), driving total company same‑store cash NOI of ~10% (SHOP = 50% of that); OMAR same‑store ~+2.5% and triple‑net >4%; balance‑sheet and other guidance highlights include average shares ~503M, Q4 leverage 5.2x (pro‑forma approaching ~5x with $12B unsettled equity), an 8% quarterly dividend increase, cash G&A in the low $150M range, FAD rising toward ~$400M, and exclusion of $0.08 of noncash stock‑based compensation from normalized FFO.Ventas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.83B | 4.92B | 4.50B | 4.13B | 3.83B |
| Gross Profit | -344.22M | 2.10B | 1.94B | 1.85B | 1.74B |
| EBITDA | 2.24B | 1.94B | 1.95B | 1.62B | 1.72B |
| Net Income | 251.38M | 81.15M | -40.97M | -47.45M | 49.01M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 27.59B | 26.19B | 24.73B | 24.16B | 24.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 741.07M | 897.85M | 508.79M | 122.56M | 149.72M |
| Total Debt | 13.22B | 13.74B | 13.69B | 12.49B | 12.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.01B | 15.36B | 15.18B | 13.94B | 13.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.53B | 10.77B | 9.49B | 10.15B | 10.85B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.32B | 1.06B | 935.13M | 926.34M | 858.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.68B | 1.34B | 1.19B | 1.15B | 1.04B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.73B | -2.39B | -239.20M | -882.33M | -764.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 875.73M | 1.45B | -563.88M | -289.13M | -535.97M |
Ventas Technical Analysis
Positive
83.64
Price Trends
83.02
Positive
80.29
Positive
73.55
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.35
Positive
52.21
Neutral
74.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 83.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.71, above the 50-day MA of 83.02, and above the 200-day MA of 73.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VTR.
Ventas Risk Analysis
Ventas disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ventas reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ventas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $13.43B | 22.25 | 11.83% | 6.11% | 13.50% | 31.56% | |
72 Outperform | $142.83B | 131.88 | 2.49% | 1.51% | 32.27% | 67.00% | |
70 Outperform | $5.06B | 29.37 | 5.63% | 6.47% | 8.12% | 75.95% | |
66 Neutral | $40.88B | 140.08 | 2.10% | 2.45% | 15.69% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $6.14B | -24.09 | -5.13% | 6.56% | -6.59% | 33.35% | |
56 Neutral | $11.88B | 156.87 | 0.91% | 7.73% | 9.58% | -111.99% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
VTR
Ventas
84.05
20.21
31.67%
DOC
Healthpeak Properties
16.68
-0.71
-4.07%
WELL
Welltower
204.70
65.52
47.08%
OHI
Omega Healthcare
45.41
10.25
29.17%
SBRA
Sabra Healthcare REIT
20.08
4.21
26.52%
HR
Healthcare Realty Trust
17.61
2.98
20.41%
Ventas Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ventas Expands At-the-Market Equity Offering Capacity
Positive
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Ventas, Inc. amended its at-the-market equity offering program, increasing the aggregate gross sales price of common stock available for issuance to $2.5 billion, excluding shares previously sold under the arrangement. The ame...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ventas Highlights New Material Agreement and Debt Obligations
Neutral
Jan 7, 2026
Ventas filed a current report on Form 8-K indicating that the information disclosed under Item 1.01 regarding entry into a material definitive agreement is also deemed to apply to Item 2.03, which concerns the company’s direct financial obli...
Private Placements and Financing
Ventas Realty Issues $500M in Senior Notes
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025
On December 4, 2025, Ventas Realty, a subsidiary of Ventas, Inc., successfully issued and sold $500 million in 5.000% Senior Notes due 2036. The proceeds from this offering are intended for general corporate purposes, including potential debt repa...
Executive/Board Changes
Ventas Announces Retirement of Key Executive
Neutral
Nov 17, 2025
On November 17, 2025, Ventas, Inc. announced the planned retirement of Peter J. Bulgarelli, Executive Vice President of Outpatient Medical Research and CEO of Lillibridge Healthcare Services, effective May 1, 2026. Bulgarelli has been pivotal in ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.