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VSE Corporation (VSEC)
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VSE (VSEC) AI Stock Analysis

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VSEC

VSE

(NASDAQ:VSEC)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$166.00
▼(-0.14% Downside)
VSE Corporation's strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives are the primary drivers of its stock score. The company's robust revenue growth and improved profitability margins, coupled with successful acquisitions, position it well for future growth. However, the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, and technical indicators point to possible short-term volatility.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
VSE reported strong second-quarter results above consensus.
Guidance
Management raised its 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance.
Partnerships
VSE has established deep distribution and MRO partnerships with several leading OEMs, including Pratt & Whitney Canada, Honeywell, and Triumph.
Negative Factors
Acquisitions
VSEC remains in consolidation mode of Turbine Weld Industries, TCI, and Kellstrom acquisitions before seeing larger contributions later this year.

VSE (VSEC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

VSE Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVSE Corporation (VSEC) is a diversified services company that provides a wide range of support solutions for government and commercial clients. Operating primarily in the defense, aviation, and transportation sectors, VSE offers services such as logistics, maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO), and supply chain management. The company focuses on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs for its clients through innovative solutions and tailored services.
How the Company Makes MoneyVSE generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily by providing MRO services and logistics support to government and commercial customers. The company earns money from contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense and other governmental agencies, which typically involve long-term agreements for maintenance and support services. Additionally, VSE has partnerships with various original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) that enable it to supply parts and services, further contributing to its revenue. The company also benefits from its strategic acquisitions that expand its service offerings and customer base, enhancing its market position and driving growth.

VSE Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong operational and financial performance for VSE Corporation in Q2 2025, driven by strategic acquisitions, partnerships, and divestitures. Record revenue and profitability underscore the effectiveness of the company's transformation into a focused aviation aftermarket entity. Despite some initial challenges in the USM business and aftermarket softness, the overall outlook remains robust, supported by strong market demand and successful integration of recent acquisitions.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Financial Performance
In Q2 2025, VSE Corporation achieved record revenue of $272 million, a 41% increase year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 52% to $43 million, with a 16% margin. Adjusted net income and earnings per share rose by 149% and 106%, respectively.
Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships
The company completed the acquisition of Turbine Weld Industries and signed a 5-year authorized service center agreement with Eaton for hydraulic pump MRO support. These moves expand VSE's engine service capabilities and OEM relationships.
Successful Fleet Segment Divestiture
VSE Corporation completed the sale of its Fleet segment, marking its transformation into a pure-play aviation aftermarket company, allowing focus on higher-growth, higher-margin distribution and MRO services.
Strong Aviation Segment Growth
Aviation segment revenue increased 41%, driven by distribution revenue growth of 50% and MRO revenue growth of 27%. Organic aviation revenue grew approximately 13% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Challenges in the USM Business
VSE Corporation experienced a 20% reduction in USM revenue on a run rate basis as part of a strategic shift to focus on higher-margin product lines. This reflects a move away from speculative parts trading.
Initial Aftermarket Softness
The second quarter began with softness in the aviation aftermarket due to tariff uncertainties, although activity rebounded in May and June.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, VSE Corporation reported record financial performance, driven by strategic initiatives and acquisitions. The company achieved a 41% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenues, totaling $272 million, and a 52% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $43 million, with a margin of 16%. The Aviation segment alone generated $272 million in revenue, a 41% increase, with distribution and MRO revenue up by 50% and 27%, respectively. Adjusted net income rose 149% to $20 million, or $0.97 per diluted share. The firm completed the sale of its Fleet segment, focusing entirely on aviation aftermarket services, and secured a $700 million credit facility to support growth. The acquisition of Turbine Weld Industries enhanced their MRO capabilities, while the integration of TCI and Kellstrom strengthened operational synergies, contributing to a robust 2.2x adjusted net leverage ratio. Looking forward, VSE expects to maintain strong aviation segment revenue growth of 35% to 40% for the full year 2025, with adjusted EBITDA margins projected at 16.5% to 17%.

VSE Financial Statement Overview

Summary
VSE has demonstrated strong revenue growth and improved profitability margins, reflecting operational efficiencies. The balance sheet reveals a strong equity base and prudent debt management, enhancing financial resilience. Cash flow improvements are promising, although past challenges in cash operations need to be monitored.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
VSE has demonstrated strong revenue growth from $661.7 million in 2020 to $1.1 billion in TTM, indicating robust expansion. The Gross Profit Margin for TTM is relatively low at 5.3%, but the Net Profit Margin has improved significantly to 4.8% from negative margins in prior years, showing effective cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also strengthened, suggesting improved operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
77
Positive
The company has strengthened its equity position with Stockholders' Equity increasing to $979.5 million in TTM from $356.3 million in 2020, enhancing financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.05, indicating conservative leveraging. However, the Equity Ratio of 61.1% in TTM suggests a strong reliance on equity financing, which is a positive indicator of financial health.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The Free Cash Flow has improved to $13.3 million in TTM from negative figures in prior years, reflecting better cash management. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is positive, indicating effective conversion of income into cash. However, historical negative operating cash flows highlight past cash management challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.10B1.08B860.49M949.76M750.85M661.66M
Gross Profit115.77M108.20M95.61M77.93M43.63M75.39M
EBITDA126.52M110.18M111.41M78.21M22.38M78.90M
Net Income18.94M15.32M39.13M28.06M7.97M-5.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.60B1.73B1.35B999.79M918.56M780.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments16.91M29.03M7.77M478.00K518.00K378.00K
Total Debt45.76M485.21M459.26M308.64M317.73M277.92M
Total Liabilities622.50M746.43M733.61M550.26M501.23M423.76M
Stockholders Equity979.53M988.19M616.73M449.53M417.33M356.32M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow13.32M-51.74M-40.49M-3.16M-28.12M31.33M
Operating Cash Flow30.81M-31.04M-21.83M8.05M-17.60M35.76M
Investing Cash Flow-99.24M-263.67M-235.69M-2.38M-61.63M20.22M
Financing Cash Flow66.34M315.81M264.97M-5.71M79.37M-56.34M

VSE Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price166.24
Price Trends
50DMA
146.56
Positive
100DMA
136.35
Positive
200DMA
122.38
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
4.69
Positive
RSI
62.03
Neutral
STOCH
56.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VSEC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 166.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 162.80, above the 50-day MA of 146.56, and above the 200-day MA of 122.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VSEC.

VSE Risk Analysis

VSE disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. VSE reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

VSE Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$3.41B94.286.22%0.24%13.00%120.90%
77
Outperform
$2.77B225.251.02%19.91%-73.61%
73
Outperform
$1.36B34.255.86%2.42%72.72%
73
Outperform
$1.76B25.546.86%5.07%
64
Neutral
$10.73B15.747.56%2.01%2.76%-15.10%
63
Neutral
$4.07B-2.57%9.19%72.88%
58
Neutral
-4.74%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VSEC
VSE
166.24
83.72
101.45%
AIR
AAR
75.30
10.41
16.04%
DCO
Ducommun
90.45
27.56
43.82%
MRCY
Mercury Systems
68.93
32.67
90.10%
TGI
Triumph Group
26.01
12.86
97.79%
VVX
V2X
56.68
8.11
16.70%

VSE Corporate Events

Dividends
VSE Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend Announcement
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

On July 31, 2025, VSE Corporation announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on October 29, 2025, to stockholders of record as of October 15, 2025. This decision reflects VSE’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders, potentially enhancing its attractiveness to investors and solidifying its position in the aviation aftermarket industry.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025