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Royal Vopak NV (VOPKY)
OTHER OTC:VOPKY
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Royal Vopak
(OTC:VOPKY)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$60.00
▲(31.87% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/04/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (strong margins and consistent positive cash flow) and strong technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is also supportive with a low P/E and meaningful dividend. The main constraints are recent revenue softness and execution/FX/legal risks highlighted in guidance, including potential temporary leverage increases during the growth capex cycle.
Positive Factors
High margins & cash conversion
Sustained high operating margins and strong cash conversion create recurring free cash flow that funds growth capex, dividends and buybacks. Durable margin strength cushions earnings through cycles and enhances the company's ability to self-fund projects without persistent external financing.
Long-term contracts & high occupancy
A high occupancy rate and a large share of multi-year contracts provide revenue visibility and reduce cyclicality. This fee-based, contract-backed cash flow profile supports predictable operating income and underpins long-term distribution capacity and capital planning.
Committed growth pipeline
A material, committed project pipeline means near-term capacity additions are largely pre-funded and will add fee-bearing assets. Successful commissioning of these projects should enlarge the revenue base and leverage existing commercial contracts, supporting medium-term earnings and cash generation.
Negative Factors
Choppy revenue trend
Weak and inconsistent revenue growth constrains the company's ability to absorb fixed costs and fully monetize new capacity. Persistent top-line softness may delay payback on recent capex, increase utilization risk, and limit organic cash-flow growth despite strong margins.
Underperforming terminals / execution risk
Localized underperformance at specific terminals reduces returns on invested capital and increases the risk that commissioned capacity remains underutilized. These execution shortfalls can depress segment profitability and prolong the time to recover growth capex.
Legal / stakeholder risk at REEF
An ongoing legal dispute creates execution uncertainty for a major project. Litigation can delay commissioning, raise costs, complicate permits and financing, and create reputational risk—any of which can materially affect project returns and near-term operational plans.
Royal Vopak (VOPKY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.78B
Dividend Yield4.12%
Average Volume (3M)0.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)0.21
Revenue Growth-2.78%
EPS Growth16.33%
CountryUS
Employees4,928
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.90
Shares Outstanding115,264,200
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume0
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.36
Price to Sales (P/S)3.56
P/FCF Ratio10.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.48
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Royal Vopak Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKoninklijke Vopak N.V., an independent tank storage company, stores and handles liquid chemicals, gases and LNG, oil products, biofuels, and vegetable oils worldwide. It owns and operates specialized facilities, including tanks, jetties, truck loading stations, and pipelines. The company operates 73 terminals in 23 countries with a storage capacity of 36.2 million cubic meters. Koninklijke Vopak N.V. was founded in 1616 and is headquartered in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyRoyal Vopak generates revenue primarily through its tank storage services, charging customers for the storage and handling of their bulk liquid products. The company operates on a fee-based model, where it earns income from long-term contracts with major clients in the oil, gas, and chemical industries. Key revenue streams include storage fees, throughput fees for loading and unloading products, and additional service fees for value-added services such as blending and heating. Vopak also benefits from strategic partnerships with leading companies in the energy and chemical sectors, which help to secure long-term contracts and ensure a steady revenue flow. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency and safety enhances its competitive advantage, contributing to its overall profitability.
Royal Vopak Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a clearly positive performance cycle: record cash generation, improved margins, stronger OCR (up to 15.6%), active growth investing and a material shareholder distribution program. These positives are tempered by identifiable operational and external risks — FX headwinds, underperforming specific terminals (e.g., Zhangjiagang, Veracruz), slower-than-expected progress on some energy‑transition supply chains, and an ongoing legal dispute on the REEF project. Management has a conservative balance-sheet stance and explicit plans to fund growth while returning capital, but temporary leverage upticks and localized execution risks remain.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record EBITDA and Strong Profitability
Proportional EBITDA increased to EUR 1,184 million (reported), with adjusted proportional EBITDA up ~4.3% year-on-year excluding currency impacts and divestments. EBITDA margin improved to 58% and cash conversion reached 70%.
Record Operating Free Cash Flow and Per-Share Growth
Proportional operating free cash flow increased to EUR 823 million; proportional operating free cash flow per share rose 7% in 2025 to EUR 7.13 and has increased 62% since 2021.
Operating Cash Return (OCR) Improvement
Operating cash return improved to 15.6% in 2025 from 10.2% in 2021 (an increase of 5.4 percentage points). Management raised the long-term OCR ambition to a 13%–17% range.
Capital Allocation and Shareholder Distributions
Announced a shareholder distributions program of ~EUR 1.7 billion through year-end 2030 (including dividend ambition growth of 5%+ annually and a proposed 2025 dividend per share of EUR 1.80). Share buyback ambition of EUR 500 million through 2030, with an initial tranche of up to EUR 100 million over the next 12 months.
Growth Commitments and Project Pipeline
Committed ~EUR 1.9 billion to growth projects since 2022 (EUR 550 million committed in 2025). Around EUR 650 million of projects commissioned and contributing, EUR 1.3 billion under construction, and ~EUR 775 million expected to commission by year-end 2026. Targeting EUR 4 billion growth CapEx through 2030.
Balance Sheet and Leverage
Proportional leverage decreased to 2.6x (2.06x excluding assets under construction), the lowest in five years; consolidated operating free cash flow of EUR 691 million and levered free cash flow of EUR 506 million in 2025.
Operational Resilience and Contractual Strength
Occupancy remained healthy at 91.4%; 70% of revenues are from contracts longer than three years (a 10-percentage-point increase since 2021). Approximately 40% of EBITDA now generated by gas and industrial assets.
Earnings and One-off Positive Items
Net income increased by EUR 228 million in 2025; earnings per share increased by 68%, partly driven by a EUR 113 million dilution gain from AVTL IPO and a EUR 181 million impairment reversal for the Europoort terminal.
Negative Updates
Foreign Exchange Headwinds
Currency translation negatively impacted results in 2025 (noted negative exchange effects of EUR 33 million on proportional EBITDA) and management expects a further negative FX impact of ~EUR 20 million in 2026. Sensitivity: a 0.10 move in EUR-USD impacts ~EUR 32 million of annual EBITDA.
Gas Segment Year-on-Year Weakness
Results in the gas segment declined versus 2024 due to planned out-of-service capacity and a positive one-off in 2024 that inflated the prior year comparatives.
Slower Progress on Some Energy‑Transition Supply Chains
Developments for CO2 and ammonia (hydrogen carrier) supply chains are moving more slowly than initially anticipated, delaying some 'Accelerate' pillar opportunities.
Local Market and Terminal Challenges
Chemical markets were challenging for customers in 2025, with some terminals seeing lower occupancy. Zhangjiagang (wholly owned China terminal) has low occupancy and remains a focus for improvement. Veracruz conversion to chemicals had no capacity fill in 2025 and is not expected to fill in 2026.
Legal / Stakeholder Risk at REEF Project
Dispute with First Nations over the REEF LPG terminal led to an interim court ruling (case will proceed in 2026–2027). Management says construction remains on time and on budget but the legal process creates execution risk.
Q4 One-offs and Contract Lapses
Q4 proportional EBITDA in Asia & Middle East was affected by a one-off claim in Australia (~EUR 2 million) and the end of a long-term contract in Darwin (resulting in ~EUR 2 million drop), illustrating short-term volatility in some locations.
Leverage May Temporarily Rise During Construction
Management allows proportional leverage to fluctuate between 3x–3.5x during multi-year construction periods; this could temporarily increase financial risk depending on project timing (noted as possible for 2–3 years).
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 EBITDA of EUR 1.15–1.20 billion (rebased proportional EBITDA ~EUR 1.14 billion) implying autonomous growth of 1–5%, and expects proportional operating free cash flow of around EUR 800 million; they flagged a negative FX translation headwind of about EUR 20 million for 2026, noting 28% of EBITDA is euro‑denominated and a 0.10 USD/EUR move affects annual EBITDA by ~EUR 32 million. Longer‑term targets were reiterated and upgraded: an operating cash return ambition of 13–17% (2025 OCR 15.6%) and a proportional growth CapEx ambition of EUR 4 billion through 2030 (EUR 1.9 billion committed since 2022, ~EUR 550 million committed since early 2025, EUR 650 million already commissioned, ~EUR 1.3 billion under construction with ~EUR 775 million expected to commission by year‑end 2026, ~EUR 325 million in 2027–28 and ~EUR 175 million in 2029+). Capital allocation guidance includes a shareholder distributions program of ~EUR 1.7 billion through year‑end 2030 (proposed 2025 dividend per share EUR 1.80, ambition to grow dividends ≥5% p.a. and move to semi‑annual payments), a EUR 500 million buyback target with an initial tranche up to EUR 100 million over 12 months, and a proportional leverage of 2.6x (2.06x excl. assets under construction) with a target range of 2.5–3x and temporary flexibility to 3–3.5x during construction.Royal Vopak Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and consistently positive operating/free cash flow support the score, but it’s held back by weakening revenue in 2024–2025 and some historical earnings volatility (notably the 2022 loss). Leverage is manageable but still meaningful, which can amplify downside in weaker periods.Income Statement
Profitability is a clear strength: the latest annual period (2025) shows very strong operating profitability and a high net margin, alongside consistently healthy EBITDA margins over the last several years. However, growth has weakened—revenue declined in 2024 and fell further in 2025 after a stronger 2023, indicating a choppy top-line trajectory. Earnings quality also looks somewhat volatile across the cycle, highlighted by the 2022 loss despite positive revenue growth that year.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is moderate for the business, with debt-to-equity generally around ~0.8–1.0 and improving from the higher level seen in 2022. Equity has remained substantial and has grown versus 2024, supporting balance-sheet resilience. The main watch-out is that leverage is still meaningful and returns have been uneven across years (including negative return on equity in 2022), which can amplify downside in weaker operating periods.64
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow has been consistently positive and free cash flow remains meaningfully positive across the periods shown. That said, free cash flow declined in 2025 (negative growth) and cash conversion is not consistently strong—free cash flow is only about half to two-thirds of net income in recent years, suggesting working-capital swings, capital intensity, or other cash demands that can pressure near-term cash build.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.25B | 1.32B | 1.44B | 1.38B | 1.24B |
| Gross Profit | 298.63M | 1.01B | 1.38B | 1.03B | 896.10M |
| EBITDA | 896.56M | 925.20M | 1.02B | 423.30M | 587.10M |
| Net Income | 580.16M | 375.70M | 455.70M | -168.40M | 214.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.11B | 6.80B | 6.65B | 7.00B | 7.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 99.46M | 94.20M | 197.00M | 33.80M | 73.40M |
| Total Debt | 2.80B | 2.77B | 2.48B | 3.08B | 3.00B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.72B | 3.56B | 3.28B | 3.85B | 3.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.26B | 3.10B | 3.22B | 2.98B | 3.19B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 421.48M | 573.40M | 452.20M | 439.10M | 163.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 751.23M | 909.10M | 866.20M | 825.20M | 682.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -565.18M | -495.30M | 109.60M | -489.40M | -588.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -174.05M | -528.80M | -801.90M | -353.50M | -84.80M |
Royal Vopak Technical Analysis
Positive
45.50
Price Trends
48.43
Positive
46.57
Positive
46.90
Positive
Market Momentum
1.61
Negative
65.36
Neutral
87.01
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VOPKY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.00, below the 50-day MA of 48.43, and below the 200-day MA of 46.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VOPKY.
Royal Vopak Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $15.09B | 12.88 | 12.03% | 8.54% | -7.53% | 9.74% | |
77 Outperform | $5.78B | 8.89 | 15.45% | 4.12% | -2.78% | 16.33% | |
73 Outperform | $8.20B | 13.77 | 64.22% | 8.45% | 10.78% | 19.10% | |
69 Neutral | $2.89B | 16.38 | 847.51% | 9.78% | -1.78% | 9.32% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $4.79B | 70.57 | 3.41% | 2.68% | 19.15% | 329.74% | |
47 Neutral | $581.44M | -9.26 | -1.23% | ― | 17.09% | 72.64% |
* Energy Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.