Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh (VONOY)
:VONOY
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Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh (VONOY) AI Stock Analysis

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VONOY

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh

(OTC:VONOY)

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Neutral 59 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▼(-0.68% Downside)
Vonovia SE's overall stock score reflects a mixed outlook. The most significant factor is the company's strong cash flow management, which provides resilience despite operational challenges and high leverage. The earnings call was positive, indicating growth potential, but technical indicators show bearish momentum, and the valuation suggests the stock may be overvalued. Investors should weigh the potential for recovery against the current financial and market challenges.

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh (VONOY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVonovia SE is a leading residential property company based in Germany, primarily engaged in the acquisition, development, and management of residential real estate. The company operates in the housing sector, focusing on providing affordable and high-quality living spaces. With a portfolio that includes a wide range of residential units across Germany and other European markets, Vonovia aims to enhance the quality of life for its tenants while maintaining sustainable practices within the real estate industry.
How the Company Makes MoneyVonovia generates revenue primarily through rental income from its extensive portfolio of residential properties. The company leases apartments to tenants, which provides a stable and recurring revenue stream. Additionally, Vonovia engages in property management services, which may include maintenance and renovation projects that can further enhance rental income. The company also benefits from property sales and development projects, where it may sell newly built or refurbished units at a premium. Key partnerships with local governments and other housing authorities often facilitate development projects and alignment with regional housing needs, contributing to its earnings. Overall, Vonovia's revenue model is largely dependent on the residential rental market and its ability to manage and grow its property portfolio effectively.

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call revealed a strong financial performance with significant growth in EBITDA and rent growth forecasts. However, challenges in the transaction market and interest coverage remain. The company is optimistic about its strategic initiatives and future growth prospects.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Total EBITDA increased by 6.4% and EBT increased by 6.8%. Post minorities EBITDA also rose by 6.4%.
Organic Rent Growth Forecast
Organic rent growth is expected to increase to around 5% by 2028, with potential to exceed this due to higher investments.
Value-Add Business Segment Expansion
Value-add EBITDA is expected to be considerably higher than last year, driven by higher investments and contributions from the energy business.
Adjusted Net Yield Efficiency
Vonovia has an adjusted net yield efficiency of just 0.2% leakage for the German portfolio, demonstrating superior scale and efficiency compared to peers.
Asset Value Growth
Net value growth of 70 basis points in H1 is expected to be exceeded in H2.
Negative Updates
Challenging Transaction Market
The transaction market remains below levels seen during the ultra-low interest rate period, though it is stabilizing.
Interest Coverage Concerns
Interest coverage ratio focus remains critical, with an internal threshold of 3.5x, though the company aims to keep this stable amid rising interest expenses.
Development Segment Constraints
Development EBITDA was positively impacted by a land sale, but the pace of new project developments remains slow.
Minor Portfolio Reduction
The rental segment is still impacted by a smaller portfolio, with 9,000 fewer units year-on-year, affecting top-line growth.
Company Guidance
In the Vonovia SE Interim Results call for the first nine months of 2025, the company reported that it is on track to achieve the upper end of its guidance. Total EBITDA increased by 6.4%, while EBT rose by 6.8%. The company expects organic rent growth to reach around 5% by 2028, driven by higher investments and strong market rental growth. Vonovia's focus on cost leadership, scale, and standardization has resulted in a gross-to-net yield difference of only 0.4 percentage points, highlighting its operational efficiency compared to peers. Despite a challenging transaction market, Vonovia remains confident in achieving its ambitious EBITDA targets due to a stable operating environment and continued value and earnings growth. The company plans to increase its investments to EUR 2 billion annually by 2028, aiming for a sustainable return of 7.1% on completed investments between 2014 and 2024.

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vonovia SE shows mixed financial performance. The income statement indicates recovery with positive revenue growth, but operational challenges persist. The balance sheet is heavily leveraged, posing financial risks. However, strong cash flow management provides a buffer. The company should prioritize operational efficiency and debt reduction to strengthen its financial position.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Vonovia SE's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a recovery with a positive net profit margin of 6.02% and a significant revenue growth rate of 90.5%. However, the EBIT margin is negative, suggesting operational challenges. Historical data shows fluctuating profitability with a notable loss in 2023. The company needs to stabilize its operational efficiency to improve its financial health.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.76 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage. The return on equity is low at 1.56%, reflecting limited profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio is not provided, but the high leverage poses a risk. The company should focus on reducing debt to enhance financial stability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with a free cash flow growth rate of 10.75% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.36, indicating decent cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is consistently 1.0, suggesting effective cash management. Continued focus on cash flow generation will support financial resilience.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.69B5.94B5.23B5.15B3.62B3.15B
Gross Profit1.47B2.25B2.47B2.86B2.23B2.08B
EBITDA2.16B408.00M-7.90B1.26B9.81B5.51B
Net Income379.10M-896.00M-6.29B-669.40M2.68B3.27B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets90.14B90.24B92.00B101.39B105.91B62.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.18B2.02B1.59B1.20B1.32B453.40M
Total Debt42.67B43.21B43.49B45.69B47.69B24.63B
Total Liabilities61.80B62.11B62.05B66.95B69.78B37.59B
Stockholders Equity24.19B24.00B25.68B31.33B33.29B24.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.86B2.40B1.90B1.86B1.47B1.16B
Operating Cash Flow2.86B2.40B1.90B2.08B1.82B1.43B
Investing Cash Flow-221.20M-187.60M-825.90M938.20M-19.12B-1.73B
Financing Cash Flow-2.51B-1.82B-961.00M-3.15B18.13B402.60M

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price16.11
Price Trends
50DMA
15.51
Negative
100DMA
15.98
Negative
200DMA
15.59
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.24
Positive
RSI
50.09
Neutral
STOCH
83.74
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VONOY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.36, above the 50-day MA of 15.51, and above the 200-day MA of 15.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VONOY.

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$14.50B23.559.14%12.51%32.34%
69
Neutral
$46.25B38.3814.26%14.61%30.19%
68
Neutral
$3.69B16.6912.21%6.77%150.72%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
62
Neutral
$29.25B1,342.800.25%14.61%-87.93%
59
Neutral
$25.61B7.8310.68%4.38%24.14%
59
Neutral
$3.12B29.908.08%0.66%22.22%94.52%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VONOY
Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh
15.30
0.09
0.59%
CBRE
CBRE Group
153.17
21.17
16.04%
CSGP
CoStar Group
68.53
-6.51
-8.68%
JLL
Jones Lang Lasalle
301.88
39.12
14.89%
NMRK
Newmark Group
16.53
1.40
9.25%
CWK
Cushman & Wakefield
15.53
1.42
10.06%

Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Corporate Events

Vonovia SE Shines in Earnings Call with Strong Growth
Aug 7, 2025

Vonovia SE’s recent earnings call conveyed a positive sentiment, reflecting strong financial performance and increased guidance. The company highlighted significant growth in rental income and operating free cash flow, alongside the successful integration of Deutsche Wohnen. Despite these achievements, challenges such as higher financing expenses and development impairments were acknowledged.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2025