CBRE Group (CBRE) AI Stock Analysis

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CBRE Group

(NYSE:CBRE)

Select Model

Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:67Neutral

Price Target:

$165.00

▲(14.44% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (notably a strengthened balance sheet and improving revenue trend) and upbeat earnings-call guidance for 2026 EPS growth. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a demanding valuation (P/E ~39.5 with no dividend support).

Positive Factors

Stronger Balance Sheet

Material deleveraging improves financial flexibility and reduces refinancing risk across cycles. Lower leverage supports continued M&A, buybacks, and investment in growth areas without destabilizing liquidity, strengthening resilience during cyclical real estate downcycles.

Revenue & EPS Re-acceleration

Renewed top-line momentum and record core EPS reflect recovering demand and broad-based business performance. Durable revenue growth across advisory, leasing and capital markets improves scale economics and supports sustainable earnings power outside short-term cycles.

Data Center/Digital Infra Growth

High-growth exposure to data center and digital infrastructure creates a secular revenue stream less tied to traditional office cycles. Faster growth, expanding expertise and material EBITDA contribution support diversification and long-run margin and AUM expansion.

Negative Factors

Margin Compression

Sustained lower margins weaken underlying earnings power and return on capital versus prior-cycle peaks. Structural margin pressure makes outcomes more sensitive to volume swings and cost inflation, limiting durability of profitability through multiple cycles.

Cash-Flow Volatility

Uneven FCF conversion and year-over-year declines constrain consistent capital deployment. Volatility from working capital and development timing limits predictability for buybacks, acquisitions and deleveraging, raising execution risk for long-term capital allocation plans.

Execution & Timing Risk

Upside is contingent on monetizing land/sites and securing power, which can be delayed. Simultaneously, talent shortages in data center execution could cap scalable delivery. Together these create structural execution risk that may limit realization of projected growth and margins.

CBRE Group (CBRE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$44.87B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.28M

Price to Earnings (P/E)38.7

Beta (1Y)0.97

Revenue Growth14.61%

EPS Growth30.19%

CountryUS

Employees140,000

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength53

IndustryReal Estate - Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.73

Shares Outstanding295,158,540

10 Day Avg. Volume4,299,171

30 Day Avg. Volume2,284,896

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.82

Price to Book (P/B)5.40

Price to Sales (P/S)1.18

P/FCF Ratio40.19

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.27

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.55

Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.75

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$184.50

Price Target Upside27.97% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

CBRE Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCBRE Group, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate services and investment company worldwide. It operates through three segments: Advisory Services, Global Workplace Solutions, and Real Estate Investments segments. The Advisory Services segment provides strategic advice and execution to owners, investors, and occupiers of real estate in connection with leasing; property sales and mortgage services under the CBRE Capital Markets brand; property and project management services, including construction management, marketing, building engineering, accounting, and financial services for owners of and investors in office, industrial, and retail properties; and valuation services that include market value appraisals, litigation support, discounted cash flow analyses, and feasibility studies, as well as consulting services, such as property condition reports, hotel advisory, and environmental consulting. The Global Workplace Solutions segment offers facilities management, project management, and transaction management services. The Real Estate Investments segment provides investment management services under the CBRE Investment Management brand to pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, foundations, endowments, and other institutional investors; development services under the Trammell Crow Company brand primarily to users of and investors in commercial real estate; and flexible-space solutions under the CBRE Hana brand. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyCBRE generates revenue primarily through service fees and commissions from its commercial real estate services. Key revenue streams include property management fees, leasing commissions, and investment sales commissions. The company also earns income from advisory and consulting services, as well as from its capital markets activities. Significant partnerships with institutional investors, property owners, and developers further enhance its earnings potential by providing access to a broad client base and large-scale real estate transactions. Additionally, the company's performance is bolstered by its extensive data analytics and technology solutions, which improve service delivery and client engagement.

CBRE Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus areas.

Chart InsightsCBRE's revenue by segment shows a strategic pivot with significant growth in Building Operations and Experience and Project Management starting in 2025. This aligns with their earnings call, highlighting a 19% increase in Project Management and 11% growth in Building Operations, driven by strong performance in the Americas. Advisory Services also saw a 16% rise, led by leasing and property sales. The data center sector emerged as a key growth driver, contributing $700 million in Q3 2025. Despite currency headwinds, CBRE's strategic focus on data centers and key markets underpins its optimistic outlook.

Data provided by:

The Fly

CBRE Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call emphasized broad-based double-digit growth across both resilient and transactional businesses, record quarterly revenue and earnings, strong free cash flow and disciplined capital allocation (acquisition plus buybacks). Management provided optimistic guidance for 2026 (core EPS up ~17% at midpoint) and highlighted strategic growth areas (data center solutions, local facilities management, Industrious expansion and AI-driven data advantages). Reported lowlights were mostly one-time charges ($279M), timing uncertainty around data center land monetizations and short-term margin/cash-flow headwinds from working capital and compensation, plus execution constraints (talent) and AI-related risks. Overall, the positive operational and financial momentum materially outweighs the listed challenges, which management characterized as manageable or transitory.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Quarterly Revenue and EPS Growth

Fourth quarter revenue increased 12% year-over-year and core EPS rose 18% (both reaching all-time highs for CBRE). Core EBITDA grew 19% for the quarter.

Strong Advisory Leasing Performance

Global leasing revenue grew 14% with EMEA Continental Europe up 29% and the U.K. up 16%. U.S. leasing revenue increased 12%, including data center leasing which more than doubled and industrial leasing up 20%.

Robust Capital Markets and Mortgage Origination Momentum

Capital Markets (sales and mortgage origination) grew at high-teens rates. U.S. sales revenue rose 27%. Mortgage origination fees grew over 20%, supported by a 23% increase in loan volume.

Data Center and Digital Infrastructure Growth

Data Center Solutions revenue grew >20% in 2025, is growing at ~20% per year, and is expected to reach $2.0 billion in revenue in 2026. Data center and digital infrastructure work accounted for ~14% of core EBITDA in 2025.

Resilient Services and BOE Performance

Resilient businesses delivered double-digit revenue growth. Building Operations & Experience (BOE) segment operating profit grew 20%, outpacing revenue growth, and local facilities management expanded meaningfully (Americas local revenue grew from $330M in 2021 to $800M in 2025).

Project Management Integration Progress

Project Management delivered solid revenue growth and the integration of Turner & Townsend with legacy CBRE project management is largely operating as a combined global business; segment delivered healthy operating leverage for the full year.

Investment Management Fundraising and AUM Increase

Raised over $11 billion of capital in 2025; Assets under Management ended the year at $155 billion, up more than $9 billion year-over-year.

Strong Free Cash Flow and Capital Allocation

Generated nearly $1.7 billion of free cash flow in 2025, an 86% conversion on core net income (above the 75%–85% target range). Net leverage ended the year at 1.2x. Since Q3 end, allocated >$1.5 billion of capital (including ~$1.2 billion acquisition of Pearce Services and nearly $400 million of share repurchases).

2026 Financial Guidance

Company expects core EPS of $7.30 to $7.60 for 2026, implying ~17% growth at the midpoint, driven by continued double-digit growth in resilient businesses and recovery in transactional businesses.

Operational Wins and Product Investments

Progress on AI and data initiatives: management expects concrete evidence of extracting and delivering proprietary real estate data to professionals by end of 2026 and anticipates ~25% savings in research costs from AI-driven efficiencies. Also expanding Industrious to >300 locations and building Americas infrastructure capabilities.

Negative Updates

GAAP Earnings Reduced by One-Time Charges

Noncash impact from U.K. pension buyout and increased reserve for fire safety remediation totaled $279 million in Q4, reducing GAAP earnings; management said these actions will result in future net cash savings and without them Q4 GAAP net income would have increased 43%.

Project Management Margin Pressure from One-Time Items

Project Management margins declined compared with prior year due to several unusual one-time expenses and conservative receivable reserves; management expects these items to reverse in Q1 2026.

Capital Markets Still Below Peak Levels

Despite double-digit and high-teens growth in sales and mortgage origination, revenue from key asset classes (office and multifamily sales) remains well below prior cycle peaks.

Timing Uncertainty for Data Center Land Monetizations

Guidance sensitivity driven largely by timing of data center land site monetizations; power availability and long lead times create uncertainty that could affect whether the company achieves the high end of its guidance range.

Working Capital and Compensation Headwinds to Cash Flow

Free cash flow in 2025 benefited from development gains, but working capital timing (onboarding large enterprise clients) pressured year-end cash flow and will reverse in 2026. Additionally, higher cash compensation in 2026 related to strong 2025 performance represents a headwind to cash flow.

Talent and Scaling Constraints in Data Center Execution

Management flagged difficulty finding sufficient skilled people to keep pace with demand in data center and critical infrastructure businesses, creating an operational constraint despite strong demand.

Office Leasing Growth Deceleration and Deal Timing

U.S. office leasing growth decelerated to low single digits year-over-year versus an elevated prior-year Q4; several large office deals slipped into 2026 (timing benefit for Q1 but indicative of near-term variability).

Potential AI-Related Risks

Management identified AI-related market risks across transactional businesses, asset creation/improvement, and asset operations (especially parts involving data and knowledge work). While optimistic on net impact, AI presents a potential disintermediation risk in some areas (e.g., aspects of valuations and appraisals).

Company Guidance

CBRE guided 2026 core EPS of $7.30–$7.60 (midpoint ≈ 17% growth) and said Q1 should represent roughly 15% of full‑year core EPS, with continued double‑digit revenue growth in resilient businesses and “greater‑than‑through‑cycle” growth in transactional businesses; segment SOP guidance was low‑teens for Advisory, mid‑teens for BOE (BOE margins expected to be flat in 2026) and low‑teens for Project Management (with margin expansion expected). Management highlighted data center momentum—data center solutions revenue is expected to reach $2.0B in 2026 and to grow ~20% y/y, data center/digital infrastructure made up ~14% of 2025 core EBITDA—and noted that timing of land/site monetizations (power access) is the primary upside driver to the EPS range. FY‑2025 metrics underpinning the outlook include nearly $1.7B of free cash flow (86% conversion of core net income, vs. a 75–85% target), net leverage ~1.2x, AUM $155B (up >$9B) after raising >$11B, embedded development gains of ~$900M, ~ $1.2B for the Pearce acquisition and >$1B of share repurchases YTD (nearly $400M since Q3); management expects 2026 cash conversion to be in the 75–85% range but flagged working‑capital timing and higher cash compensation as headwinds.

CBRE Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid overall financial quality for a cyclical services business: balance sheet improved materially (debt-to-equity ~0.37 in 2025 vs. ~0.68 in 2024) and revenue growth re-accelerated in 2025. Offsetting that, profitability is structurally softer than 2021–2022 (gross margin ~18.7% in 2025 vs. ~22.2% in 2021; net margin ~2.9%), and cash-flow conversion has been uneven with a 2025 free-cash-flow step-down versus 2024.

Income Statement

Positive

Revenue growth has been steady and re-accelerated in 2025 (up ~3.1% vs. ~0.1% in 2024), showing continued demand recovery. Profitability, however, has compressed versus earlier years: gross margin declined to ~18.7% in 2025 from ~22.2% in 2021, and net margin remains thin at ~2.9% in 2025 (down from ~6.6% in 2021). Net income improved in 2025 ($1.16B vs. $0.97B in 2024), but overall earnings power appears more cyclical and margin-sensitive than in the 2021–2022 period.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Leverage looks reasonable and improved materially in 2025, with debt-to-equity down to ~0.37 (from ~0.68 in 2024), reflecting stronger balance-sheet positioning. Equity has grown over time ($8.88B in 2025 vs. $7.08B in 2020), supporting financial flexibility. Returns on equity are solid but below peak levels (~13.0% in 2025 vs. ~21.5% in 2021), suggesting profitability is not yet back to prior-cycle strength.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash generation is positive, with operating cash flow of $1.56B and free cash flow of $1.19B in 2025, but free cash flow declined ~15.1% year over year, indicating weaker conversion versus 2024. Free cash flow covered about 76.5% of net income in 2025 (down from ~82.9% in 2024), which is still decent but less robust than earlier periods (often ~85–91% in 2020–2022). Cash flow has also shown volatility historically (notably weaker operating cash flow in 2023), which is a risk factor for consistency.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	40.55B	35.77B	31.95B	30.83B	27.75B
Gross Profit	6.07B	7.02B	6.30B	6.62B	6.17B
EBITDA	2.58B	2.15B	1.83B	2.03B	2.09B
Net Income	1.16B	968.00M	986.00M	1.41B	1.84B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	30.88B	24.38B	22.55B	20.51B	22.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.86B	1.11B	1.26B	1.32B	2.43B
Total Debt	9.99B	5.69B	4.83B	3.49B	4.20B
Total Liabilities	21.25B	15.19B	13.48B	11.91B	12.71B
Stockholders Equity	8.88B	8.41B	8.27B	7.85B	8.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.19B	1.49B	229.00M	1.46B	2.23B
Operating Cash Flow	1.56B	1.80B	534.00M	1.72B	2.44B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.63B	-1.60B	-729.00M	-917.20M	-1.56B
Financing Cash Flow	796.00M	-221.00M	148.00M	-1.77B	-286.38M

CBRE Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price144.18

Price Trends

50DMA

162.32

Negative

100DMA

159.12

Negative

200DMA

152.33

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-5.61

Positive

RSI

37.13

Neutral

STOCH

43.34

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBRE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 144.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.43, below the 50-day MA of 162.32, and below the 200-day MA of 152.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CBRE.

CBRE Group Risk Analysis

CBRE Group disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CBRE Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

CBRE Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JLL	68 Neutral	$14.84B	19.11	11.10%	―	12.51%	32.34%
CBRE	67 Neutral	$44.87B	38.74	13.38%	―	14.61%	30.19%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
BEKE	62 Neutral	$20.06B	41.75	4.91%	2.26%	25.33%	-15.12%
CWK	60 Neutral	$3.14B	13.76	12.21%	―	6.77%	150.72%
NMRK	59 Neutral	$2.80B	26.81	8.08%	0.68%	22.22%	94.52%
CSGP	56 Neutral	$20.74B	954.67	0.25%	―	14.61%	-87.93%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CBRE

CBRE Group

144.18

5.48

3.95%

CSGP

CoStar Group

47.87

-29.73

-38.31%

JLL

Jones Lang Lasalle

304.36

38.79

14.61%

NMRK

Newmark Group

14.45

0.43

3.07%

CWK

Cushman & Wakefield

12.93

1.07

9.02%

BEKE

KE Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A

16.89

-3.98

-19.09%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 19, 2026