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voestalpine AG (VLPNY)
OTHER OTC:VLPNY
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voestalpine AG
(OTC:VLPNY)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(12.49% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
Score reflects resilient balance sheet and positive cash flow alongside constructive (but overextended) technicals. These positives are tempered by weak current profitability/returns and an unattractive valuation (high P/E with modest yield), while earnings call guidance and cash-flow outlook are supportive but still face near-term cyclical and policy-related headwinds.
Positive Factors
Improved leverage / stronger balance sheet
Progressive deleveraging and a ~50% equity ratio materially improve financial resilience in a cyclical industry. Lower leverage reduces refinancing and liquidity risk, gives capacity to fund capex and decarbonization, and increases flexibility to absorb cyclical downturns without urgent asset sales.
Consistent cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow supports ongoing investment, deleveraging and project financing without full reliance on external markets. Even with softer margins, cash conversion and working-capital releases show the business can fund strategy and absorb cyclical volatility over the medium term.
Strategic high‑value niches & greentec progress
On‑time decarbonization capex and strong execution in higher‑margin areas (steel, rail, aerospace) position the company for structural demand shifts toward low‑carbon, engineered steel. This strengthens long‑term competitiveness, enables premium product mix and supports differentiated customer relationships.
Negative Factors
Weak profitability & low returns
Persistently compressed margins and low ROE limit reinvestment capacity and reduce earnings cushion versus cyclical shocks. Low profitability increases payback periods for strategic projects and makes it harder to deliver sustained shareholder returns without structural improvement in prices or mix.
Revenue and steel price headwinds
Significant revenue decline driven by lower realized steel prices is a structural margin risk for a commodity-exposed manufacturer. Prolonged weak price environment compresses cash generation and strains margins across divisions, delaying normalization of returns and making mid‑cycle planning harder.
Division-level structural pressures (imports/tariffs)
Sustained import competition, tariff headwinds and low end‑market activity create structural margin pressure in HPM and tubulars. These forces necessitate restructuring and lower utilization, raising recurring costs and execution risk while reducing the predictability of earnings in these engineered product lines.
voestalpine AG (VLPNY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.60B
Dividend Yield1.57%
Average Volume (3M)26.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.9
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth-3.86%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees50,670
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding892,745,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume26
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.46
Price to Book (P/B)0.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.24
P/FCF Ratio11.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.17
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
voestalpine AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Descriptionvoestalpine AG is a global leader in high-quality steel and technology-based special products, headquartered in Linz, Austria. The company operates across various sectors, including steel production, metal processing, and advanced technology solutions. Its core offerings include flat steel products, long steel products, and high-performance materials for the automotive, aerospace, energy, and construction industries, among others. With a strong focus on innovation and sustainability, voestalpine emphasizes the development of advanced manufacturing processes and products that meet the evolving demands of modern industries.
How the Company Makes Moneyvoestalpine makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling steel, steel-based products, and engineered metal components, typically through business-to-business contracts with industrial customers. Key revenue streams include: (1) Sale of steel and rolled products: revenue from producing and selling flat and long steel products (including value-added, finished or semi-finished forms) where earnings are influenced by steel prices, raw material and energy costs, and volume. (2) High-value metal processing and specialty products: revenue from higher-margin processed steel offerings such as precision strip, special steels, and other advanced grades that command premiums due to performance requirements and tighter specifications. (3) Components and systems for industrial customers: revenue from manufacturing formed parts, assemblies, and system solutions used by automotive and other industrial OEMs; this can include long-term supply arrangements tied to customer production programs. (4) Railway and infrastructure-related products: revenue from products used in railway systems (e.g., rails, turnouts, and related infrastructure components, where applicable within the group’s portfolio), often sold via project-based or framework agreements. Profitability is driven by product mix (shift toward specialized, processed, and engineered offerings), capacity utilization, cost management (raw materials, energy, logistics), and demand in core end markets. Information on specific major partnerships is not available.
voestalpine AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a cautiously positive picture: management reported resilient operational results (EBITDA growth, strong cash generation, lower net debt and solid equity ratio), confirmed FY guidance, and highlighted strategic growth initiatives and on-time decarbonization projects. Offsetting this are notable near-term headwinds — revenue decline driven by lower prices, division-level weakness in HPM and Metal Engineering (tariff and import pressures), higher effective tax rate, and timing uncertainty from a pending divestment and delayed project volumes. Overall the company appears financially robust and executing its reorganization and growth plans, but faces cyclical and policy-related risks that temper near-term visibility.Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid Group EBITDA and Profitability
Group EBITDA of ~EUR 1.0 billion in the first 9 months (vs. EUR 970 million prior year), an increase of roughly +3.1%. EBIT reported at ~EUR 470 million versus EUR 390 million a year earlier (approx. +20.5%). Management notes all profit-line items were 'in green'.
Strong cash flow and working capital execution
Cash flow from results of EUR 873 million plus a EUR 228 million release from working capital, resulting in operating cash flows above EBITDA for the period. Company expects positive free cash flow for the full year and in Q4.
Improved balance sheet and deleveraging
Net debt reduced by roughly EUR 200–300 million (management cited ~EUR 300 million vs. same period last year and ~EUR 200 million since the beginning of the year). Net debt/EBITDA ~1.0 and equity ratio ~50% (EUR 7.6 billion). Gearing down to ~19%.
Confirmed EBITDA guidance
Management confirmed full-year EBITDA guidance between EUR 1.40 billion and EUR 1.55 billion, with the range reflecting closing/no-closing of a divestment in HPM.
Steel division outperformance
Steel division delivered a very strong operational performance in a weak market, with an EBITDA margin >13% and ~300,000 tonnes higher volumes year-to-date (contributing ~EUR 100m+). Management expects improving price momentum into next year tied to safeguards/CBAM and infrastructure demand.
Railway Systems and project wins
Railway Systems described as very strong: delivered major projects including Koralmbahn (35 km tunnel: 290 km rail, 235 turnouts plus digital monitoring). Railway Systems EBITDA margin ~10.3% and continues to show solid order book and international projects.
Large-scale decarbonization program on schedule
EUR 1.5 billion greentec decarbonization program (replace 2 of 5 blast furnaces with EAFs at two Austrian sites) is reported to be on time and on budget; ramp-up to start around one year from the call.
Growth initiatives and geographic expansion
Active growth focus on railway systems, tubes & sections, warehouse solutions and aerospace; India footprint: current revenue ~EUR 190 million, 5 sites, ~1,000 FTEs with plans to add production (special tubes/sections) and increase aerospace approvals and welding consumables capacity.
Negative Updates
Revenue decline and price headwinds
Group revenues were down roughly EUR 600 million year-on-year for the first 9 months. Management attributes ~EUR 450 million of that to lower prices and ~EUR 50 million to a weaker US dollar; volume effects added ~EUR 120 million but were insufficient to offset price declines.
HPM (High Performance Metals) weakness and imports pressure
HPM faced a weak market with strong import competition (tooling/industrial parts) and low rig counts in oil & gas. EBITDA margin in HPM was reported at ~7.6%. Utilization in HPM cited around ~80% and management noted restructuring is driving most recent improvements rather than clear market restocking.
Metal Engineering (tubulars/OCTG) impacted by US tariffs
Metal Engineering results were weaker (down EUR 79 million YTD). Tubulars/OCTG business saw significant headwinds from US tariffs and lower rig counts, with tariffs accounting for roughly EUR 50 million of the negative deviation in the division.
Tax rate significantly higher
Profit after tax impacted by an unexpectedly high effective tax rate (>30%) for the first 9 months due to not recognizing tax loss carryforwards (noted in Brazil and Germany), versus a low tax rate last year (which included positive prior-year tax recognitions).
Divestment and restructuring costs / headcount reductions
Continuing restructuring (notably automotive components) led to site closures and headcount reductions (e.g., Birkenfeld closure ~200 people). Management is executing multiple reorganizations across HPM and automotive components, with associated one-off costs.
Gross margin compression
Gross margin declined by approximately EUR 137 million year-to-date; management attributed roughly 60% of that drop to the Steel division and material impact to Metal Engineering as well, driven by lower prices and tariffs.
Near-term uncertainties and timing risks
Guidance range remains broad because of an outstanding divestment (closing/no-closing impacts which end-of-quarter result will be in upper vs lower guidance). Also timing risks noted for heavy-plate project deliveries (some projects postponed from FY2026 to FY2027) and potential lag in contract repricing due to contract cadence.
Fourth quarter cash & ETS burden
Additional cash out for ETS (CO2 certificates) approximately EUR 180 million typically paid in Q4/January, and additional capex cash-outs are expected — management flagged ~EUR 350 million still to be spent to reach FY CapEx guidance of EUR 1.1 billion.
Company Guidance
Management confirmed full‑year EBITDA guidance of EUR 1.40–1.55 billion and reiterated CapEx guidance of EUR 1.1 billion, while expecting positive free cash flow for the full year and a slight positive FCF in Q4; they warned Q4 will include ~EUR 180 million ETS cash payments and around EUR 350 million of additional cash outs to year‑end (ETS + CapEx). For the first 9 months they reported EBITDA of ~EUR 1.0 billion (vs. EUR 970 million LY), cash flow from results of EUR 873 million plus a working‑capital release of EUR 228 million, and a reduction in net debt of roughly EUR 200–300 million (net debt/EBITDA ~1.0x; gearing ~19%; equity ~EUR 7.6 billion, ~50%); management expects stable auto volumes (~12 million cars p.a.), continued strength in rail/aerospace/warehouse, a gradual steel price recovery (safeguards effective from July) and a midterm normalised CapEx run‑rate nearer to ~EUR 1.0 billion p.a. after the decarbonization peak.voestalpine AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial profile is mixed: profitability and returns are weak (TTM net margin ~1.2%, EBIT margin ~3.3%, ROE ~2.6%) and revenue is under pressure, but leverage is manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.35) and cash generation remains positive (TTM OCF ~1.87B; FCF ~0.78B).Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show weak profitability for a steel cyclical: net margin is ~1.2% and EBIT margin is ~3.3%, despite a solid gross margin (~18.7%). Revenue has been declining (TTM revenue growth rate ~-99% as provided; recent annual declines also visible), and profitability is well below the 2022–2023 peak when net margins were mid-to-high single digits. Positives include still-positive earnings and stable gross margin versus the last couple of annual periods, but the sharp downshift from prior-cycle earnings and ongoing top-line pressure weigh on the score.46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable: TTM debt-to-equity is ~0.35 (improving from ~0.73 in 2021), with equity of ~7.39B against ~15.22B of assets. This balance sheet provides a buffer for a cyclical downturn. The key weakness is muted returns: TTM return on equity is ~2.6%, reflecting compressed earnings power versus 2022–2023 when returns were far stronger. Overall, the capital structure appears sound, but profitability on the capital base is currently low.66
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative bright spot: TTM operating cash flow is ~1.87B and free cash flow is ~0.78B, indicating the business is still producing cash despite thin accounting margins. However, free cash flow is down (TTM free cash flow growth ~-3.9% as provided), and cash conversion is not consistently strong based on the provided coverage metrics (TTM operating cash flow coverage ~0.34; free cash flow to net income ~0.42). Net-net, cash flow is supportive, but trending weaker and less consistent than ideal.62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.14B | 15.74B | 16.68B | 18.23B | 14.92B | 10.90B |
| Gross Profit | 2.95B | 2.84B | 2.79B | 3.64B | 3.36B | 1.83B |
| EBITDA | 778.80M | 1.40B | 1.74B | 2.44B | 2.20B | 1.07B |
| Net Income | 225.40M | 153.50M | 100.80M | 1.06B | 1.30B | 42.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.22B | 15.73B | 16.56B | 17.09B | 17.02B | 14.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 880.30M | 1.09B | 1.48B | 1.40B | 988.40M | 1.30B |
| Total Debt | 2.32B | 2.69B | 3.06B | 2.99B | 3.19B | 4.02B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.61B | 8.27B | 9.06B | 9.32B | 9.96B | 9.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.39B | 7.22B | 7.19B | 7.45B | 6.91B | 5.52B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 753.80M | 311.90M | 366.00M | 204.10M | 588.90M | 1.03B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.80B | 1.42B | 1.45B | 956.20M | 1.24B | 1.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -965.90M | -1.25B | -853.00M | -47.10M | -629.80M | -665.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -536.60M | -699.50M | -325.30M | -685.90M | -948.30M | -595.60M |
voestalpine AG Technical Analysis
Neutral
8.89
Price Trends
9.91
Negative
9.00
Positive
7.58
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
42.40
Neutral
17.48
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLPNY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.66, below the 50-day MA of 9.91, and above the 200-day MA of 7.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VLPNY.
voestalpine AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $4.88B | 61.64 | 5.84% | ― | -16.81% | -67.68% | |
67 Neutral | $7.38B | 10.04 | 10.54% | 1.02% | -1.61% | -81.36% | |
65 Neutral | $7.84B | 17.63 | 3.53% | 7.02% | -16.69% | 585.38% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $6.78B | 29.29 | 2.53% | 2.92% | -2.53% | -36.08% | |
59 Neutral | $8.60B | 25.87 | 3.09% | 1.57% | -3.86% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $5.29B | -4.42 | -24.89% | ― | -6.76% | -255.94% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
VLPNY
voestalpine AG
9.65
4.46
86.06%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
9.28
-0.51
-5.21%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
66.53
22.71
51.82%
GGB
Gerdau SA
3.60
0.87
31.68%
SIM
Grupo Simec SA De CV
30.60
4.61
17.76%
TX
Ternium SA
39.93
10.72
36.70%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.