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Vodacom Group Limited (VDMCY)
OTHER OTC:VDMCY

Vodacom Group (VDMCY) AI Stock Analysis

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VDMCY

Vodacom Group

(OTC:VDMCY)

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Outperform 79 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$11.50
â–²(30.53% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:11/11/25
Vodacom's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's solid financial health, impressive growth in revenue and customer base, and attractive dividend yield contribute positively. However, mixed technical indicators and challenges in South Africa's market slightly offset these strengths.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Vodacom converts profit into cash very efficiently, with operating cash flows well above net income and positive free cash flow growth. This durable cash generation supports sustained capex for network rollout, dividend increases and strategic investments without materially raising leverage.
Customer & financial-services expansion
Rapid customer growth and a materially larger financial-services footprint (M-Pesa-related users and transaction value growth) diversify revenue away from legacy voice. Financial services contributing a quarter of PBT creates a durable, higher-margin earnings stream and cross-sell runway across markets.
Low leverage / solid balance sheet
Extremely low reported leverage gives Vodacom financial flexibility to fund growth, absorb shocks, and maintain distributions. Combined with decent ROE, the balance-sheet profile supports capital allocation for international expansion and network investment without compromising solvency.
Negative Factors
South Africa prepaid weakness
Prepaid volumes are a structural revenue base in Vodacom's domestic market; persistent declines reflect consumer pressure and competitive dynamics. Continued weakness here can depress domestic revenue and margins, limiting near-term growth while management reallocates focus to international and financial services.
Structural voice revenue pressure
Ongoing OTT substitution and aggressive competitive pricing structurally reduce voice ARPU and core revenue. This trend forces capital and commercial shifts to data and financial services, potentially compressing margins and requiring sustained investment to offset legacy declines.
Moderate equity ratio limits buffer
While leverage is low, an equity ratio near 37% implies limited equity cushion relative to assets. That moderate base reduces the natural shock absorber for asset write-downs or adverse macro moves, potentially constraining aggressive M&A or dividend hikes without changing capital structure.

Vodacom Group (VDMCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vodacom Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVodacom Group Limited operates as a connectivity, digital, and financial services company in South Africa and internationally. It offers range of communication services, including data, mobile and fixed voice, messaging, financial services, enterprise IT, and converged services. The company also provides mobile and fixed line connectivity solutions, as well as internet and virtual private network services to its customers over various wireless, fixed-line, satellite, mobile, and converged technologies; and cloud hosting and security services comprising infrastructure as a service, platform as a service, software as a service, security services, hosted applications, and primary and direct connectivity to all hyperscalers. In addition, it offers carrier service products, including wholesale APN data, microwave, managed satellite, WiFi, international private leased circuit, IP transit, fiber, and IP-VPN; ethernet over MPLS, carrier ethernet, cloud connect, dedicated internet access, broadband internet access, software-defined WAN, and VSAT services; sensors and other electronic devices that are attached to a remote machine enabling the capturing of critical information, such as temperature, speed, location, etc.; and digital financial services for personal finance and business solutions. Further, the company offers and SmartCitizen mobile app to provide transparency and accountability with services, such as water and sanitation, roads, education, and health. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Midrand, South Africa. Vodacom Group Limited is a subsidiary of Vodafone Investments SA (Pty) Limited.
How the Company Makes MoneyVodacom generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from mobile voice and data services, which include prepaid and postpaid plans for individuals and businesses. The company also earns income from value-added services such as mobile money (Vodacom's M-Pesa), which allows users to transfer money, pay bills, and make purchases. Additionally, fixed-line services and broadband subscriptions contribute to its revenue. Key partnerships with various content providers and businesses enhance Vodacom's offerings, enabling cross-selling of services. The company's strategic focus on expanding its IoT and financial services segments further diversifies its income sources, making it more resilient to fluctuations in traditional telecom revenues.

Vodacom Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 10, 2025
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong overall performance with significant growth in revenue, customer base, and financial services. However, challenges in South Africa's prepaid market and voice revenue decline slightly tempered the positive outlook.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Double-Digit EBITDA Growth
The company delivered ahead of its double-digit EBITDA growth target with revenue reaching ZAR 81.6 billion, up 10.9%.
Customer Base Expansion
The total customer base increased by 8.6% to 223 million, with financial service customers reaching 94 million, up 13.1%.
Egypt's Strong Performance
Egypt contributed ZAR 7.8 billion to operating profit, an increase of 66.5% on a rand basis, supported by stabilized macro conditions.
Safaricom's Contribution
Safaricom contributed ZAR 2.1 billion to operating profit, up 65.3%, with Kenya's EBITDA margins at 57.3%, up 2.2 percentage points.
International Business Growth
Operating profit for international markets more than doubled to ZAR 2.1 billion, with EBITDA margins recovering to 33.9% from 28.2%.
Increase in Headline Earnings Per Share
Headline earnings per share rose by 32.3% to ZAR 4.67, supported by strong growth across various segments.
Dividend Increase
The Board declared a dividend of ZAR 3.30 per share, up 15.8%.
Strong Financial Services Growth
Financial services now account for 25% of profit before tax, with transaction value reaching $477 billion, up 13%.
Negative Updates
Challenges in South Africa's Prepaid Market
South Africa's prepaid market faced pressure with a decline of 2.9% in Q2, contributing to a 1.6% decrease over the half, impacted by consumer pressure and competitive dynamics.
South Africa EBITDA Decline
EBITDA for South Africa declined by 5.3% due to a one-off settlement cost related to the Please Call Me matter.
Voice Revenue Challenges
Voice revenue is under pressure, particularly in South Africa, where it is in decline due to OTT voice and competitive offerings.
Company Guidance
During the call, Mohamed Shameel Joosub highlighted Vodacom's strong financial performance in the first half of fiscal year 2026, with revenue reaching ZAR 81.6 billion, a 10.9% increase, and double-digit EBITDA growth exceeding targets. The company reported an impressive 8.6% rise in customer numbers to 223 million, moving closer to its Vision 2030 target of 260 million. Financial services customers also grew by 13.1% to 94 million, contributing 25% to profit before tax. Egypt's operating profit surged by 66.5% to ZAR 7.8 billion, driven by a stabilized macroeconomic environment. Safaricom's operating profit rose by 65.3%, with EBITDA margins in Kenya reaching 57.3%. International business segments doubled their operating profit to ZAR 2.1 billion, benefiting from service revenue growth in the DRC, Lesotho, and Tanzania. Despite challenges, South Africa's operating profit stood at ZAR 8.8 billion, with a focus on balancing price discipline and competitive responses in the prepaid segment. The company declared a dividend of ZAR 3.30 per share, a 15.8% increase, while maintaining a healthy return on capital employed at 26.3%. Looking ahead, Vodacom anticipates strong EBITDA growth in Egypt and international markets, with planned capital expenditures of ZAR 23 billion for the fiscal year.

Vodacom Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vodacom Group demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and growth trends in the income statement, a stable balance sheet with low leverage, and impressive cash flow metrics. The company is well-positioned financially, with robust performance across key metrics.
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
The company shows a strong income statement performance with consistent revenue growth, increasing from 150.59 billion to 152.23 billion annually. Gross profit margin is healthy at approximately 61%, and the net profit margin is stable around 11%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting efficient operations and cost management. The revenue growth rate from the previous year is positive, indicating continued expansion.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a solid financial structure with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02, indicating low leverage and reduced financial risk. The return on equity is decent at approximately 18%, suggesting effective use of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio is moderate, with stockholders' equity constituting about 37% of total assets, implying room for strengthening the equity base.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Cash flow metrics are strong, with robust operating cash flows exceeding net income, highlighting good cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow growth is positive at 5.34%, demonstrating effective capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is approximately 3.18, indicating efficient conversion of profit to cash.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue156.04B152.23B150.59B6.97B6.88B5.98B
Gross Profit73.74B92.89B82.76B2.76B2.81B2.42B
EBITDA58.80B58.80B59.07B44.61B43.45B43.09B
Net Income18.49B16.60B16.29B985.68M1.16B1.01B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets249.76B249.98B240.61B12.87B12.18B11.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments24.78B27.17B34.84B1.30B1.25B1.50B
Total Debt79.97B2.09B73.48B3.96B3.59B3.38B
Total Liabilities146.48B146.33B136.78B7.38B6.33B5.84B
Stockholders Equity90.11B92.02B92.76B4.84B5.44B5.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow30.84B28.11B26.69B1.22B1.30B1.24B
Operating Cash Flow55.24B52.80B49.01B2.40B2.23B2.06B
Investing Cash Flow-27.01B-24.21B-20.72B-1.88B-1.04B-814.02M
Financing Cash Flow-20.54B-25.86B-25.70B-375.41M-1.09B-1.20B

Vodacom Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price8.81
Price Trends
50DMA
9.18
Positive
100DMA
8.52
Positive
200DMA
8.05
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.28
Positive
RSI
62.81
Neutral
STOCH
73.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VDMCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.85, below the 50-day MA of 9.18, and above the 200-day MA of 8.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VDMCY.

Vodacom Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$18.78B17.6818.39%3.17%8.58%31.38%
75
Outperform
$20.27B15.3315.54%6.14%-5.21%-7.45%
73
Outperform
$12.12B15.9217.96%7.82%-4.90%14.83%
70
Outperform
$25.32B22.939.34%5.03%-3.16%4.70%
61
Neutral
$11.28B42.533.10%5.02%-8.16%-52.52%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
60
Neutral
$34.32B-8.12-7.08%3.77%19.67%-278.51%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VDMCY
Vodacom Group
9.55
3.47
57.10%
TLK
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
20.70
6.81
49.05%
SKM
Sk Telecom
29.28
7.86
36.69%
VIV
Telefonica Brasil
15.71
7.74
97.11%
TIMB
TIM
25.46
12.96
103.75%
VOD
Vodafone
14.88
6.39
75.18%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 11, 2025