US Physical Therapy (USPH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.25B
• Dividend Yield: 2.25%
• Average Volume (3M): 209.49K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 78.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.15
• Revenue Growth: 17.50%
• EPS Growth: 154.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,034
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.67
• Shares Outstanding: 15,122,562
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 207,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 209,488
• PEG Ratio: -3.45
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.32
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.41
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.01
• 1Y Price Target: $100.50
• Price Target Upside: 22.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $831.56M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $89.00 ▲(8.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

USPH scores as a mid-range opportunity: improving profitability and strong free cash flow, plus upbeat guidance and operational momentum, support the outlook. The score is held back primarily by premium valuation (high P/E) and mixed technicals, alongside the fundamental risk of reimbursement/payer pressures and a recent TTM revenue decline.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow

Sustained FCF (~$61M TTM) and solid operating cash flow provide durable internal funding for acquisitions, dividends and buybacks. Positive FCF growth and decent cash conversion (~0.82x net income) support capital allocation without requiring immediate equity raises, strengthening strategic flexibility.

Improving margins and throughput

Higher visit intensity and cost control have driven margin expansion and unit economics improvement. Record visits per clinic and declining cost-per-visit underpin sustainable margin gains, enabling better profitability per location even if revenue growth slows, supporting longer-term operating leverage.

Strategic M&A and hospital alliances

Long-term hospital partnerships and targeted acquisitions deepen referral flows, scale clinic networks, and realize rate uplift (Metro rate improvement cited). Multi-year alliances and disciplined M&A materially enhance market access and revenue visibility into 2027+, creating sustainable growth channels beyond organic demand.

Negative Factors

Medicare reimbursement cuts

Multi-year Medicare rate reductions represent a structural headwind that materially depresses margins and EBITDA (aggregate ~$25M impact). Proposed 2026 relief is modest and unlikely to fully offset cuts, leaving persistent reimbursement risk that pressures long-term earnings power.

Softening revenue momentum

A TTM revenue decline and only ~1% same-store growth signal softer organic demand and constrained volume recovery in mature markets. Reliance on acquisitions to drive top-line amplifies execution risk and could limit sustainable margin expansion if organic growth remains tepid.

Elevated leverage & working-capital use

Meaningful leverage and heavy revolver usage to fund acquisitions and working capital reduce financial flexibility. Ongoing integration and implementation costs increase cash needs; elevated indebtedness limits ability to absorb reimbursement shocks and constrains optionality for opportunistic investments.

US Physical Therapy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates outpatient physical therapy clinics that provide pre-and post-operative care and treatment for orthopedic-related disorders, sports-related injuries, preventative care, rehabilitation of injured workers, and neurological-related injuries. It operates through two segments, Physical Therapy Operations and Industrial Injury Prevention Services. The company offers industrial injury prevention services, including onsite injury prevention and rehabilitation, performance optimization, post-offer employment testing, functional capacity evaluations, and ergonomic assessments through physical therapists and specialized certified athletic trainers for Fortune 500 companies, and other clients comprising insurers and their contractors. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 591 clinics in 39 states; and managed 35 physical therapy practice facilities. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

US Physical Therapy primarily generates revenue through the provision of outpatient physical therapy services, billing both private payers and government programs like Medicare and Medicaid. The company charges for individual therapy sessions and treatment plans, which can include a series of visits tailored to the needs of each patient. Additionally, USPH benefits from strategic partnerships with hospitals, physician groups, and other healthcare entities, which help to drive patient referrals to their clinics. The company also engages in acquisitions of local physical therapy practices, expanding its footprint and increasing its revenue potential through economies of scale and enhanced service offerings.

US Physical Therapy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are stable with improving profitability and strong cash generation: gross and net margins improved versus 2024 and TTM free cash flow is solid (~$61M) with positive growth. Offsetting this, TTM revenue declined after multiple years of growth and leverage, while improved, remains meaningful (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.61).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is down (-1.629) after solid growth in 2021–2024, indicating momentum has softened. Profitability improved versus recent annual results: gross margin rose to ~21.7% (from ~18.5% in 2024) and net margin improved to ~5.1% (from ~3.9% in 2024), showing better cost control and/or mix. However, margins remain below 2020–2021 levels (when net margin was ~5.6%–7.2%), suggesting the longer-term profitability peak has not fully returned.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable but meaningful: debt-to-equity is ~0.61 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), improved from the higher 2022 level (~0.94) but above 2020’s lower leverage (~0.40). Equity base is solid (stockholders’ equity ~476M) against total assets (~1.20B), supporting balance sheet stability. Returns have improved versus 2023–2024 (return on equity ~6.7% TTM vs ~5.4% in 2024 and ~3.1% in 2023), but remain moderate rather than strong.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear positive: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is ~75.1M and free cash flow is ~61.0M, with positive free cash flow growth (+7.181). Free cash flow remains well-supported by earnings (free cash flow is ~0.82x net income), indicating decent cash conversion. A key watch-out is that operating cash flow coverage is below 1.0 in all shown periods (TTM ~0.60), suggesting cash inflows may be somewhat less robust relative to the related obligation it is measured against.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	780.99M	671.35M	604.80M	553.14M	495.02M
Gross Profit	157.34M	123.92M	121.51M	112.02M	117.18M
EBITDA	109.66M	86.91M	74.37M	76.09M	85.73M
Net Income	15.06M	26.46M	14.67M	28.27M	27.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.20B	1.17B	997.24M	858.15M	749.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	35.57M	41.36M	152.82M	31.59M	28.57M
Total Debt	425.74M	295.23M	258.59M	295.34M	223.08M
Total Liabilities	433.81M	408.42M	345.00M	373.59M	296.98M
Stockholders Equity	476.43M	488.93M	476.19M	315.79M	295.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	60.99M	65.75M	72.68M	50.29M	68.20M
Operating Cash Flow	75.06M	74.94M	81.98M	58.54M	76.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-36.71M	-149.45M	-45.02M	-81.27M	-124.14M
Financing Cash Flow	-44.14M	-36.95M	84.27M	25.76M	43.38M

US Physical Therapy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 82.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USPH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 82.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.50, below the 50-day MA of 83.54, and above the 200-day MA of 80.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for USPH.

US Physical Therapy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HCSG	73 Outperform	$1.47B	23.43	11.69%	―	6.26%	-19.33%
PNTG	72 Outperform	$1.15B	28.23	10.87%	―	29.89%	10.33%
USPH	64 Neutral	$1.25B	78.68	4.45%	2.25%	17.50%	154.28%
SEM	62 Neutral	$2.02B	12.54	5.57%	1.69%	-22.96%	-59.35%
MD	54 Neutral	$1.60B	11.03	20.28%	―	-4.21%	―
AMN	52 Neutral	$870.97M	-6.34	-35.90%	―	-11.42%	-617.31%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

US Physical Therapy Corporate Events

US Physical Therapy Posts Strong 2025 Results, Outlines 2026 Strategy

On February 26, 2026, U.S. Physical Therapy reported that 2025 was a strong year financially, with adjusted EBITDA up 16.2%, net revenue up 16.3%, and operating income up 18.4% despite ongoing Medicare rate cuts. Patient demand drove record visit volumes per clinic, gross profit rose more than 20% in both physical therapy and injury prevention segments, and the company continued to expand through acquisitions in the Pacific Northwest, home care, and injury prevention services.

Management highlighted new long-term hospital arrangements covering 60 metro clinics and 10 additional facilities, expected to fully phase in by late 2026 and deliver at least $14 million in EBITDA at the enterprise level in 2027, strengthening USPH’s reach, volumes, and margins in key markets. The company outlined 2026 initiatives including deployment of ambient documentation tools, semi-virtual front desk operations, expansion of cash-pay programs, renewed remote therapeutic monitoring, and continued M&A and de novo clinic growth, which collectively are intended to build on recent momentum and accelerate performance, especially in hospital-focused partnerships heading into 2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (USPH) stock is a Buy with a $98.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on US Physical Therapy stock, see the USPH Stock Forecast page.

US Physical Therapy Posts Strong 2025 Results, Raises Dividend

On February 25, 2026, U.S. Physical Therapy reported that for the year ended December 31, 2025, adjusted EBITDA rose 16.2% to $95.0 million and net income attributable to shareholders increased to $39.6 million, while Operating Results per share climbed to $2.63 from $2.45. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company delivered double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA, revenue, patient visits, and gross profit in both physical therapy and industrial injury prevention, even as GAAP earnings per share were pressured by non-cash fair value adjustments, and its board raised the quarterly dividend to $0.46 per share payable April 10, 2026.

Operationally, the company expanded its clinic footprint, executed $5.6 million of share repurchases, and completed acquisitions of an eight-clinic practice and an industrial injury prevention business in January 2026. It also unveiled two 10-year strategic alliances linking a total of 70 outpatient physical therapy clinics to major hospital systems, moves that deepen its presence in key markets and, alongside 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $102.0 million to $106.0 million, underscore management’s confidence in long-term growth and value creation for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (USPH) stock is a Buy with a $98.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on US Physical Therapy stock, see the USPH Stock Forecast page.