Usiminas (USNZY) AI Stock Analysis

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Usiminas

(OTC:USNZY)

Rating:67Neutral

Price Target:

$1.00

▲(35.14% Upside)

Usiminas shows strong revenue growth and improved margins, which are significant positives. However, challenges in profitability, cash flow management, and external market conditions pose risks. The stock's valuation is moderate, and technical indicators suggest potential overbought conditions.

Usiminas (USNZY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$933.71M

Dividend Yield4.81%

Average Volume (3M)24.43K

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.8

Beta (1Y)0.69

Revenue Growth-10.29%

EPS Growth-39.37%

CountryUS

Employees51,182

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength66

IndustrySteel

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.01

Shares Outstanding547,752,000

10 Day Avg. Volume67,375

30 Day Avg. Volume24,427

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.44

Price to Book (P/B)0.30

Price to Sales (P/S)0.27

P/FCF Ratio-1.18K

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.76

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.06

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.75

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.72

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$1.00

Price Target Upside35.14% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

Usiminas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUsiminas (USNZY) is a leading Brazilian steel producer, primarily engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of flat steel products. The company operates in various sectors, including automotive, construction, and home appliances, offering a diverse range of products such as hot and cold rolled steel, galvanized steel, and electrical steel. With a strong presence in the domestic market and exports to several international countries, Usiminas plays a crucial role in the steel supply chain, supporting various industries with high-quality materials.

How the Company Makes MoneyUsiminas generates revenue primarily through the sale of its steel products to various sectors, including automotive, construction, and appliances. The company's revenue model is based on the production and distribution of flat steel products, which are essential components in numerous industries. Key revenue streams include sales from hot and cold rolled steel, galvanized steel, and other specialized steel products. Additionally, Usiminas benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with major companies in different sectors, which provide a stable source of income. Factors contributing to its earnings include fluctuations in global steel prices, demand from domestic and international markets, and operational efficiencies that help reduce production costs.

Usiminas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 25, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -3.90%|

Next Earnings Date:Oct 24, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Despite strong revenue growth and improved margins, significant challenges remain, particularly regarding high levels of steel imports and uncertainties in the international market, posing risks to sustaining current performance levels.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue and Sales Growth

Consolidated revenue increased by 41% compared to the previous quarter, reaching R$773 million with a margin of 11%. Steel sales in the domestic market rose by 4%, and mining sales increased by 11% compared to the same period last year.

Mining Segment Performance

Mining segment achieved R$733 million in revenue with an 11% margin, driven by an 11% increase in sales compared to the previous year, despite challenges like regional rainfall.

Improved EBITDA Margin

The company reported a 9% EBITDA margin, 2.4 percentage points higher than the previous quarter, with a 4% increase in sales volume in the domestic market and a 2% reduction in COGS.

Successful Bond Issuance

Usiminas successfully completed a bond issuance in January with favorable spreads, reflecting a positive market reception.

Negative Updates

Challenges with Steel Imports

A significant concern is the high volume of flat steel imports into Brazil, growing by 42% compared to the same period last year, which threatens domestic production and employment.

Uncertain International Market

Usiminas faces a challenging and uncertain international market, with high volumes of imported steel under uncompetitive conditions impacting domestic consumption.

Risk of Anti-Dumping Measures

Despite evidence of dumping practices by Chinese steel producers, Brazil has not yet applied effective anti-dumping measures, raising concerns for the sustainability of the domestic steel industry.

Working Capital Increase

There was a temporary increase of R$778 million in working capital, which the company expects to revert in the next quarter.

Company Guidance

During the Usiminas conference call to discuss the first quarter of 2025 results, several key metrics and projections were highlighted by the leadership. The company achieved a 41% increase in consolidated revenue, reaching R$773 million, with a margin of 11%. Domestic steel sales grew by 4%, demonstrating resilient demand despite challenges. In the mining segment, sales rose by 11% compared to the previous year, aided by higher quality material extraction. The overall net revenue was R$6.9 million, marking a 6% growth from the previous quarter and a 10% increase from the first quarter of 2024. The EBITDA margin for the steel segment was 9%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, with domestic sales volume increasing by 4% and a reduction in COGS by 2%. Usiminas forecasts stable consolidated results for the next quarter, anticipating stable sales volumes and noting potential challenges related to international market uncertainties and increased steel imports. The company remains focused on operational excellence, cost reduction, and maintaining competitiveness in the face of unfair competition from subsidized imports, particularly from China.

Usiminas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Usiminas shows resilience with a stable balance sheet and return to profitability. However, challenges in revenue growth and cash flow management, exacerbated by steel market volatility, impact its financial performance.

Income Statement

Positive

Usiminas has experienced fluctuating revenue with a recent TTM decline compared to 2022. Gross and EBIT margins are declining, signaling reduced profitability. However, a return to positive net income is a positive sign, improving from a net loss in 2024. The steel industry challenges and market conditions may impact these metrics further.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company has maintained a stable equity position with a healthy equity ratio. Although the debt-to-equity ratio has increased slightly, it remains manageable. Usiminas shows good asset management with an improved cash position, enhancing financial stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Usiminas faces challenges in cash flow, highlighted by negative free cash flow in the TTM due to higher capital expenditures. Operating cash flow remains positive, but the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests potential liquidity issues. Continued focus on managing cash flow is essential.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	26.78B	25.87B	27.64B	32.47B	33.74B	16.09B
Gross Profit	2.20B	1.66B	1.79B	5.68B	11.27B	3.26B
EBITDA	2.29B	1.81B	2.92B	4.77B	12.25B	3.77B
Net Income	376.13M	-145.95M	1.39B	1.62B	9.07B	1.29B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.66B	39.87B	40.16B	40.00B	39.48B	29.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.74B	5.95B	6.01B	5.07B	7.02B	4.87B
Total Debt	8.47B	7.76B	7.60B	6.32B	6.38B	6.03B
Total Liabilities	13.51B	13.19B	13.61B	14.11B	15.12B	13.11B
Stockholders Equity	24.28B	23.88B	23.86B	23.16B	21.75B	14.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-224.53M	-6.00M	1.58B	-1.09B	3.81B	2.96B
Operating Cash Flow	823.82M	989.16M	4.57B	997.12M	5.30B	3.76B
Investing Cash Flow	-919.57M	-900.93M	-2.00B	-3.34B	-325.73M	-1.48B
Financing Cash Flow	1.23B	-423.37M	-775.79M	-1.09B	-1.88B	-289.59M

Usiminas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price0.74

Price Trends

50DMA

0.80

Negative

100DMA

0.88

Negative

200DMA

0.93

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

>-0.01

Negative

RSI

40.88

Neutral

STOCH

35.33

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USNZY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.77, below the 50-day MA of 0.80, and below the 200-day MA of 0.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for USNZY.

Usiminas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (44)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CMC	71 Outperform	$6.39B	184.11	0.88%	1.26%	-5.64%	-93.26%
TX	70 Neutral	$6.33B	10.82	4.89%	8.37%	-16.83%	―
USNZY	67 Neutral	$933.71M	13.78	1.52%	4.81%	-10.29%	-39.37%
GGB	66 Neutral	$5.81B	10.55	5.77%	3.61%	-6.55%	-37.93%
SIM	64 Neutral	$4.67B	12.79	10.49%	―	-18.58%	-35.32%
SID	47 Neutral	$1.70B	―	-15.57%	17.38%	-10.77%	-191.87%
Sector *	44 Neutral	C$925.44M	-8.84	-0.23%	2.69%	24.64%	-41.43%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

USNZY

Usiminas

0.74

-0.37

-33.33%

CMC

Commercial Metals Company

56.31

2.70

5.04%

GGB

Gerdau SA

2.97

-0.08

-2.62%

SIM

Grupo Simec SA De CV

28.62

-1.00

-3.38%

SID

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional

1.32

-0.67

-33.67%

Ternium SA

32.45

0.96

3.05%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 12, 2025