Upstart Holdings (UPST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.73B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 78.3
• Beta (1Y): 3.50
• Revenue Growth: 73.29%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,193
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 98,061,280
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,434,186
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,018,792
• PEG Ratio: -0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.90
• P/FCF Ratio: -25.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 49.54
• 1Y Price Target: $47.00
• Price Target Upside: 69.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.05
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.41B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(0.76% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/11/26

The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (stock well below key moving averages with negative MACD) and stretched valuation (high P/E with no dividend). Financials show an improving earnings picture in 2025, but the return to negative operating/free cash flow and balance-sheet reporting uncertainty limit confidence; earnings-call commentary and recent corporate actions are constructive but not yet sufficiently quantified to offset these risks.

Positive Factors

AI-driven underwriting platform

Upstart’s AI-first underwriting and decisioning is a durable competitive advantage: ongoing model improvements and proprietary data can reduce default rates, automate scoring and scale across partners. Over months this supports higher throughput, lower unit costs and persistent differentiation versus legacy credit models.

Diverse partner channels and larger loan sizes

A broader channel mix with larger average loans boosts absolute dollar margin per funded loan and can lower customer acquisition costs. Structurally, this shifts revenue mix toward higher contribution loans and improves unit economics that compound over quarters if partner distribution scales as expected.

Planned national bank charter and holding company filing

Pursuing a national bank charter and bank-holding status is a structural move to expand deposit access and simplify funding. If approved, it should lower long-term funding costs, increase capital flexibility and reduce reliance on third-party capital, materially affecting funding economics over months to years.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash generation

Sharp swings in operating and free cash flow undermine durable self-funding capacity and increase reliance on external capital or partner funding. Persistent cash volatility complicates investment planning, buybacks, and capital buffers, raising liquidity and execution risk over the coming quarters.

Earnings and profitability volatility

Large year-to-year swings in profitability indicate sensitivity to macro, underwriting performance and funding dynamics. This pattern reduces predictability of margins and return generation, making it harder to rely on recent profit improvement as a durable baseline for investment or capital allocation decisions.

Balance-sheet reporting and leverage uncertainty

The abrupt reporting change to zero total debt creates interpretive risk: it may reflect classification shifts rather than economic de-leveraging. Unclear leverage trends hinder assessment of credit risk and funding stability, raising questions about hidden obligations or shifting funding structures over the medium term.

Upstart Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Its platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company's AI-enabled bank partners. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Upstart primarily makes money by providing its lending platform to partner financial institutions and earning fees tied to loan origination and related services rather than by acting as a traditional bank. Key revenue streams include: (1) Platform and referral fees: when a borrower is matched with a lending partner and a loan is originated through Upstart-powered channels, Upstart earns fees for facilitating the transaction and providing its underwriting and decisioning technology. (2) Servicing and other fees: Upstart can earn ongoing fees associated with servicing and loan administration on loans originated through its platform and other ancillary services provided to partners. (3) Interest income and fair value changes from loans and loan-related assets held on balance sheet: in some periods Upstart retains loans or has exposure to loans via funding arrangements; when it holds loans or loan interests, it can generate interest income and may also recognize gains/losses from changes in the fair value of those assets when applicable. Earnings are significantly influenced by the volume of loans originated on its platform (which depends on demand, credit performance, partner funding appetite, and macro/interest-rate conditions) and by the breadth and depth of its partnerships with banks, credit unions, and institutional funding sources that purchase or fund loans originated through the platform.

Upstart Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability improved materially in 2025 with positive EBIT and net income and revenue stabilizing, but results remain volatile and 2025 operating/free cash flow turned negative again. The balance sheet appears stronger, though the abrupt shift to reported zero debt in 2025 adds interpretive risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has recovered from the 2023 downturn, rising again in 2024 and reaching $1.04B in 2025 (+5.4%). Profitability also improved materially: the company moved from sizable losses in 2022–2024 to positive EBIT and net income in 2025. The main weakness is volatility—results swung from strong profitability in 2021 to deep losses in 2022–2023—suggesting earnings are still sensitive to the operating environment and business mix. (Note: 2025 gross profit is not provided, limiting margin trend assessment for the latest year.)

Balance Sheet

Equity and asset base are meaningful ($799M equity on $3.0B assets in 2025), which supports resilience. However, leverage was elevated in prior years (debt-to-equity above 1.6x in 2022–2023 and 2.3x in 2024), and returns on equity were negative in 2022–2024, reflecting weak profitability through that period. A key uncertainty is that 2025 shows total debt as 0, which is a very large year-over-year change versus 2024 and could reflect reporting/classification differences—so leverage improvement should be interpreted cautiously.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been inconsistent. After positive operating and free cash flow in 2024 (~$186M and ~$185M), 2025 swung back to negative operating and free cash flow (both about -$148M). Earlier years also showed pressure, with notably large cash outflow in 2022 and negative cash flow again in 2023, highlighting volatility in working capital and/or funding dynamics. While free cash flow tracked net income closely in 2023–2024, the 2025 reversal is a clear near-term concern for liquidity and self-funding capacity.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.08B	676.96M	547.72M	853.29M	849.89M
Gross Profit	1.02B	628.83M	508.12M	837.76M	846.61M
EBITDA	79.16M	-107.85M	-215.12M	-95.56M	141.27M
Net Income	53.60M	-128.58M	-240.13M	-108.67M	135.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.97B	2.37B	2.02B	1.94B	1.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	657.45M	793.61M	377.32M	432.41M	994.99M
Total Debt	1.85B	1.45B	1.10B	1.09B	795.80M
Total Liabilities	2.18B	1.73B	1.38B	1.26B	1.01B
Stockholders Equity	798.82M	633.22M	635.30M	672.43M	807.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-166.13M	176.34M	-123.80M	-680.77M	153.24M
Operating Cash Flow	-147.72M	186.33M	-111.71M	-657.86M	168.35M
Investing Cash Flow	-177.17M	-237.73M	-118.45M	-114.13M	-143.88M
Financing Cash Flow	405.64M	559.87M	165.49M	113.21M	855.43M

Upstart Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 27.79
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.45, below the 50-day MA of 37.18, and below the 200-day MA of 52.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UPST.

Upstart Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SEZL	74 Outperform	$2.26B	16.17	91.62%	―	88.74%	106.14%
OMF	68 Neutral	$5.77B	10.25	23.40%	6.07%	9.51%	29.38%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
LC	61 Neutral	$1.60B	16.10	9.47%	―	9.68%	94.85%
AFRM	59 Neutral	$15.89B	48.00	8.83%	―	37.00%	―
UPST	49 Neutral	$2.73B	78.35	7.29%	―	73.29%	―
NAVI	49 Neutral	$785.44M	-54.17	-1.95%	4.95%	-25.22%	-174.34%

Upstart Holdings Corporate Events

Upstart Plans AI-Driven National Bank and Bank Holding Company

On March 10, 2026, Upstart announced plans to apply to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to establish an insured national bank, Upstart Bank, N.A., and to seek Federal Reserve approval to become a bank holding company. The proposed charter, with Chief Risk Officer Annie Delgado slated as CEO of the new bank, is intended to cut operational, regulatory and financial complexity for Upstart and its third-party capital providers while enabling direct consumer lending under a unified rate and fee structure.

Executives said the move is a natural evolution as the platform’s scale and product set have grown, framing Upstart Bank as potentially the first bank built from the ground up on AI and a vehicle to offer better rates and faster service to borrowers. A national bank framework would centralize oversight under federal prudential regulation, expand access to deposit funding and potentially lower costs and expand lending opportunities, while Upstart emphasized it will still rely on banks, credit unions and institutional funds as primary capital sources rather than competing for local retail deposits.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPST) stock is a Hold with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upstart Holdings stock, see the UPST Stock Forecast page.

Upstart Announces Major Share Repurchase Signaling Confidence

On February 19, 2026, Upstart Holdings, Inc. announced that it had repurchased $100 million of its common stock over the prior four trading days, buying 3,193,294 shares at an average price of $31.31 per share between February 12 and February 18, 2026. The buyback, executed via open market transactions under a previously authorized $400 million repurchase program, leaves $122 million still available and signals management’s willingness to deploy capital toward share repurchases, potentially supporting the stock and reflecting confidence in the company’s valuation and long-term prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPST) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upstart Holdings stock, see the UPST Stock Forecast page.

Upstart Announces CEO Transition and Broader Leadership Reshuffle

On February 10, 2026, Upstart announced a major leadership reshuffle, naming co-founder and current Chief Technology Officer Paul Gu as Chief Executive Officer effective May 1, 2026, with outgoing CEO Dave Girouard shifting to Executive Chairman and receiving a sharply reduced salary. Gu’s compensation package includes a significant grant of performance-based restricted stock units tied to Upstart’s relative total shareholder return over a four-year period against peers in the F-Prime Fintech Index, underscoring the board’s emphasis on long-term, market-based performance alignment.

The company also elevated Sanjay Datta to President and Chief Capital Officer effective immediately, while appointing former Cityblock Health CFO Andrea Blankmeyer as Chief Financial Officer starting March 16, 2026, with Datta retaining CFO duties until that date. Both Datta and Blankmeyer received substantial equity awards and performance-linked incentives, signaling Upstart’s effort to strengthen its finance and capital markets bench as it navigates a competitive fintech landscape and seeks to tie executive rewards more tightly to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPST) stock is a Hold with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upstart Holdings stock, see the UPST Stock Forecast page.