Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.72B
• Dividend Yield: 8.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.47M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: -3.51%
• EPS Growth: 3.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,999
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 1,115,849,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,159,055
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,473,641
• PEG Ratio: 1.79
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.16
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.06
• 1Y Price Target: $5.40
• Price Target Upside: 9.98% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $27.68B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(12.02% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/09/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/09/26

UGP’s score is held back mainly by middling financial quality—thin margins, weaker 2025 revenue and cash conversion, and rising leverage—despite steady profitability. Offsetting this, technicals show a generally positive longer-term trend with neutral momentum, and valuation is supportive with a low P/E and strong dividend yield. The latest earnings call adds a modest positive tilt due to record cash generation and constructive outlook, tempered by segment headwinds and near-term volatility risks.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Sustained, record operating cash generation provides durable financial flexibility: it funds capex, dividends and integration of Hidrovias without immediate reliance on markets. Over 2–6 months this improves liquidity to manage maturities and supports strategic investments and shareholder returns.

Recurring EBITDA growth

Recurring EBITDA expansion reflects underlying operational improvements across core units (Ipiranga, Ultragaz, Hidrovias). Durable EBITDA growth supports internal funding, resilience through fuel cycle swings, and a stronger cash flow base to sustain investment and dividends over the medium term.

2026 investment plan

A targeted, medium-term capex plan focused on expansion and productivity strengthens competitive position: it funds network branding, logistics capacity and terminal expansions, which should raise volumes and operational efficiency over several years, supporting structural revenue and margin improvement.

Negative Factors

Thin margins & volatile revenue

Persistently thin net margins and recurring revenue volatility limit the firm's ability to build large earnings cushions. Low margin structure increases sensitivity to input cost swings and regulatory or import-parity shifts, constraining durable profitability and reducing margin of safety over the medium term.

Rising leverage & weakened cash conversion

Higher indebtedness and weaker cash conversion reduce financial flexibility to absorb shocks or fund growth without external financing. Elevated leverage plus lower OCF/N income means refinancing risk and less capacity to accelerate investments or repurchase stock if industry conditions worsen in the coming quarters.

Segment operational headwinds

Persistent volume declines and expected short‑term weakness in key segments signal uneven recovery across the portfolio. Segment-specific demand pressure and navigability/import constraints can compress unit economics, raise unit fixed-cost absorption and slow the pace at which consolidated margins and cash returns normalize.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ultrapar Participações S.A. engages in the gas distribution, fuel distribution, and storage businesses primarily in Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela, other Latin American countries, the United States, Canada, the Far East, Europe, and internationally. Its Gas Distribution segment distributes liquefied petroleum gas to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers primarily in the South, Southeast, and Northeast regions of Brazil. The company's Fuel Distribution segment distributes and markets gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and lubricants; operates convenience stores; and offers lubricant-changing and automotive specialized services. The company's Storage segment operates liquid bulk terminals primarily in the Southeast and Northeast regions of Brazil. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated through 7,104 Ipiranga service stations and 1,841 AmPm convenience stores; 1,149 Jet Oil franchises; 4 distribution centers; and 7 Ultracargo terminals with storage capacity of 983 thousand cubic meters. It also operates Abastece Aí, a digital payments app; and offers Km de Vantagens, a loyalty program. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Ultrapar generates revenue primarily through its fuel distribution segment, notably from the sale of gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products through its extensive network of Ipiranga service stations. Additionally, the company earns income from its storage operations at Ultracargo, which provides logistics and tank storage services for liquid bulk products, including fuels and chemicals. Oxiteno contributes to revenue through the production and sale of specialty chemicals and petrochemicals, serving various industries such as personal care, agriculture, and construction. Significant partnerships with suppliers and customers, along with strategic investments in infrastructure, further enhance Ultrapar's ability to optimize operations and drive profitability.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are stable but not highly resilient: thin net margins (~1.2%–1.9%), softer margins vs. the 2023 peak, and a sharp 2025 revenue decline (-17.6%). Leverage rose in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~1.39 vs ~1.04 in 2024) and cash conversion weakened (FCF ~44% of net income; OCF/net income ~0.29). Offsetting positives include consistent ROE (~15%–18%) and continued profitability.

Income Statement

Profitability is steady but structurally thin: net profit margin has stayed around ~1.2%–1.9% from 2020–2025, and 2025 remained profitable (net income ~2.4B) despite a sharp revenue decline (-17.6%). Margins improved meaningfully from 2021 into 2023, but have softened since (gross margin down from ~7.4% in 2023 to ~6.6% in 2025; EBIT margin down from ~4.1% to ~3.2%). Revenue growth has been volatile (strong gains in 2021–2022, then declines in 2023 and again in 2025), which adds cyclicality risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has risen recently: debt-to-equity moved from ~1.04 (2024) to ~1.39 (2025) as total debt increased to ~21.8B while equity grew modestly (~15.7B). Returns on equity are consistently solid (~15%–18% in 2022–2025), indicating the company is generating reasonable earnings relative to its capital base. The key weakness is the higher debt load versus the last two years, which reduces balance-sheet flexibility if industry conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive but weakened in 2025: operating cash flow fell to ~3.5B and free cash flow to ~1.5B, with free cash flow down ~18% versus the prior year. Cash conversion is only moderate—free cash flow is ~44% of net income in 2025 (down from ~67% in 2023). Operating cash flow relative to net income remains low-to-middling (about ~0.29 in 2025), suggesting earnings are not consistently translating into operating cash at a strong rate.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	139.57B	133.50B	126.05B	143.63B	109.73B
Gross Profit	9.18B	8.62B	9.32B	7.36B	4.90B
EBITDA	6.06B	5.06B	6.36B	4.50B	2.76B
Net Income	2.41B	2.36B	2.44B	1.80B	850.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	50.27B	39.56B	38.25B	37.08B	39.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.02B	4.62B	6.22B	6.22B	4.08B
Total Debt	21.82B	15.79B	13.30B	13.45B	17.85B
Total Liabilities	32.54B	23.73B	24.22B	24.75B	28.85B
Stockholders Equity	15.66B	15.16B	13.51B	11.71B	10.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.52B	1.95B	2.56B	785.74M	1.31B
Operating Cash Flow	3.48B	3.74B	3.85B	2.00B	2.59B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.80B	-6.39B	-1.02B	7.90B	724.14M
Financing Cash Flow	433.28M	-1.23B	-2.49B	-6.91B	-3.36B

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 4.91
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.06, above the 50-day MA of 4.84, and above the 200-day MA of 3.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UGP.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PARR	78 Outperform	$2.80B	4.84	28.59%	―	-10.11%	-7.00%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
UGP	64 Neutral	$5.72B	9.20	15.50%	8.03%	-3.51%	3.75%
DK	62 Neutral	$2.54B	5.68	-14.06%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%
PBF	57 Neutral	$5.45B	-19.51	-3.05%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
CVI	47 Neutral	$3.26B	94.69	4.13%	10.50%	-7.21%	135.72%
CSAN	42 Neutral	$4.05B	-1.42	-147.93%	―	-7.39%	-621.47%

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Corporate Events

Ultrapar Files 2025 Results With Clean Deloitte Opinion and Detailed Governance Disclosures

Ultrapar Holdings Inc., the U.S.-listed vehicle of Brazilian conglomerate Ultrapar Participações S.A., has released its individual and consolidated financial statements for the year and quarter ended December 31, 2025, along with a 2025 management report and fourth-quarter 2025 earnings materials. The package, filed in March 2026, includes detailed segment information, notes on acquisitions and discontinued operations, and minutes from a March 4, 2025 board meeting, underscoring the group’s ongoing portfolio adjustments and governance activity.

Independent auditor Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu issued an unqualified opinion, stating that Ultrapar’s 2025 parent and consolidated financial statements present fairly, in all material respects, the company’s financial position and performance under Brazilian GAAP and IFRS. The clean audit opinion supports investor confidence in the group’s reporting quality and provides stakeholders with a comprehensive, reviewed data set on cash flows, taxes, contingencies, leases, and financial instruments that will inform assessment of Ultrapar’s operational and strategic trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Hold with a $5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Sets R$ 2.6 Billion Investment Plan for 2026, Adding Hidrovias Capex

On March 4, 2026, Ultrapar Participações S.A. unveiled a consolidated organic investment plan of R$ 2.617 billion for 2026, slightly above its 2025 plan, with the increase largely driven by the inclusion of R$ 270 million in capex for Hidrovias. About 42% of the budget will fund expansion aimed at boosting capacity, geographic reach and productivity across Ipiranga, Ultragaz, Ultracargo and Hidrovias.

Ipiranga will prioritize branding of service stations, logistics infrastructure, the TRR fuel reseller carrier segment and complementary services such as convenience stores and automotive offerings. Ultragaz will focus on winning new bulk customers, expanding new energy initiatives and reinforcing infrastructure in growth regions, while Ultracargo will complete expansion at Suape and Itaqui terminals slated to start operating in 2026 and pursue new productivity projects.

Hidrovias will channel expansion funds into increasing modular capacity in the Northern Corridor via a floating tipper at its transshipment terminal, along with targeted productivity investments. The remaining ~58% of the capex will support maintenance and efficiency, including asset upkeep, operational safety, station revitalization, acquisition of gas bottles and technology platforms, underscoring Ultrapar’s intent to sustain operational reliability while selectively growing core logistics and energy infrastructure.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Hold with a $5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Discloses Reduction of Squadra Stake to 4.95%

On January 27, 2026, Ultrapar Participações S.A. disclosed that investment manager Squadra Investimentos – Gestão de Recursos LTDA. and its affiliate Squadra Investments – Gestão de Recursos LTDA. had reduced their aggregate stake in Ultrapar to 4.95% of the company’s common shares as of January 26, 2026, corresponding to 55,212,788 shares, including 5,423,197 common shares lent out on loan. The announcement clarifies that Squadra has no intention of altering Ultrapar’s control structure or management, signaling that the disposal of shares is a portfolio adjustment rather than an attempt at corporate influence, which should reassure the market and existing stakeholders about the stability of the company’s governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Sets April 15, 2026 Date for Annual Shareholders’ Meeting

On January 14, 2026, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced that its Annual General Shareholders’ Meeting has been scheduled for April 15, 2026, in line with its published Annual Calendar of Corporate Events. The company stated that detailed information and materials related to the meeting will be released in due course, underscoring its adherence to Brazilian CVM Resolution 81/22 and its ongoing commitment to corporate governance and regulatory transparency for investors in Brazil and abroad.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Updates Shareholders’ Agreement After Creation of Redeemable Preferred Shares

On December 26, 2025, Ultrapar’s controlling shareholder Ultra S.A. Participações held an extraordinary general meeting that approved the creation of a new class of redeemable preferred shares, defined their characteristics and executed a capital increase via the issuance of those redeemable preferred shares. In parallel, the extensive group of shareholders and related parties to Ultrapar Participações S.A.’s existing shareholders’ agreement signed an addendum amending Clause Nine to govern how exchanges of interests will work under the so‑called Migration Right for holding partners now that all Ultra shareholders, including usufructuaries and trustees, may hold redeemable preferred shares; the document also formalizes the entry of two new joining shareholders connected to an existing shareholder vehicle, signaling a further tightening and clarification of governance and ownership arrangements within Ultrapar’s controlling bloc.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Approves Strategic Plan and AI Policy on December 10, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A.’s Board of Directors convened to approve the company’s Strategic Plan for 2026-2035 and the budget for 2026. Additionally, they endorsed a Corporate Policy for the Use of Artificial Intelligence, reflecting the company’s commitment to integrating advanced technologies into its operations. These decisions are expected to enhance Ultrapar’s operational efficiency and strategic positioning in the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.