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Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR)
NYSE:PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) AI Stock Analysis

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PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras

(NYSE:PBR)

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Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$20.50
▲(5.07% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/11/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and cash generation, though cyclical and less robust than peak years) and strong technical trend signals despite overbought momentum risk. Valuation is a major positive with a very low P/E and high dividend yield, while the earnings call supports the outlook via operational execution but flags key risks from oil-price exposure (no hedging) and elevated debt/leasing obligations.
Positive Factors
Reserve Base / Pre‑salt Strength
A 175% reserve replacement and ~1.7bn boe additions materially strengthen Petrobras’s long‑term production runway. Large, certified pre‑salt reserves underpin multi‑year output, support scale economics on ultra‑deepwater projects and reduce reinvestment risk per barrel versus smaller, higher‑decline fields.
Operational Execution & Production Growth
Sustained 11% production growth and faster FPSO ramp‑ups show durable execution capability. Reduced decline rates (from ~12% to ~4%) and rapid tie‑ins improve volume predictability, enhance fixed‑cost absorption, and support continued scale advantages in Brazil’s pre‑salt basin over coming years.
Cash Generation & Capital Discipline
Consistently strong operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, debt servicing and shareholder returns. Management’s explicit capital discipline and distribution policy tied to debt thresholds improve predictability of reinvestment and cash returns across economic cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated Gross Debt & Lease Liabilities
Sizeable gross debt and heavy leasing exposure create ongoing fixed payment obligations and limit financial flexibility. Large lease liabilities (including named FPSOs) raise refinancing and covenant risk under stress and can constrain discretionary capital returns or incremental investment during weaker oil cycles.
No Oil‑Price Hedging Policy
An explicit no‑hedging stance leaves cash flows directly exposed to Brent volatility. That reduces near‑term revenue predictability, complicates multi‑year investment planning and makes dividend and capex commitments more sensitive to commodity swings, especially given significant lease and debt service needs.
Regulatory & Transactional Uncertainty
Pending regulatory approvals and governance decisions (Braskem transaction, foreign license recognition) create material timing and outcome risk for strategic deals. Delays or altered terms can affect expected synergies, cash inflows and portfolio strategy, adding execution risk to capital allocation and reserve diversification plans.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras (PBR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores for, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil and internationally. The company operates through Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation and Marketing; Gas and Power; and Corporate and Other Businesses segments. It engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. The Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, marketing, and trading of crude oil and oil products; exportation of ethanol; and extraction and processing of shale, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Power segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of LNG; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; holding interests in transportation and distribution of natural gas; and fertilizer production and natural gas processing business. The Corporate and Other Businesses segment produces biodiesel and its co-products, and ethanol; and distributes oil products. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
How the Company Makes MoneyPetrobras primarily makes money by producing hydrocarbons and selling crude oil, natural gas, and refined products, with earnings influenced by production volumes, realized commodity prices, product spreads, operating costs, and exchange rates. 1) Exploration & Production (Upstream): A major revenue stream comes from extracting crude oil and natural gas from its operated and non-operated fields (notably offshore Brazil). Revenue is generated through sales of produced crude oil and natural gas to domestic and international customers, with pricing typically linked to global benchmarks and contractual terms. Profitability in this segment is largely driven by lifting costs, field productivity, development and depletion profiles, royalties and government takes, and realized prices. 2) Refining, Transportation & Marketing (Downstream and Logistics): Petrobras generates revenue by purchasing/processing crude oil and other feedstocks and selling refined products such as diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, fuel oil, LPG, naphtha, and other derivatives. Margins are driven by refining utilization, product mix, refinery yields, crack spreads (difference between refined product prices and crude costs), and domestic market conditions. Transportation and logistics activities contribute through the movement, storage, and handling of crude oil, refined products, and natural gas across its infrastructure network. 3) Natural Gas and Energy-related Activities: Petrobras earns revenue from the sale and commercialization of natural gas and from natural-gas-related services and infrastructure usage where applicable. Earnings depend on contracted volumes, pricing formulas, and demand from industrial, power, and distribution customers. 4) Trading and Exports: Petrobras also monetizes production through exports of crude oil and refined products. Trading and export sales can be a meaningful contributor to revenue, depending on global demand, arbitrage opportunities, shipping costs, and regional price differentials. 5) Partnerships and Joint Ventures: In upstream developments, Petrobras may operate alongside partners in consortia. In such cases, it recognizes revenue corresponding to its share of production/sales and may benefit from risk-sharing and shared capital commitments. Specific partnership economics depend on the terms of each project and are not universally uniform. 6) Other Sources: Petrobras can generate additional income from services, by-products/petrochemical feedstocks (where applicable), and other ancillary activities within its integrated operations. If the company records material income from asset sales or one-time items, those can affect earnings in a given period but are not part of the core recurring revenue model.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution and financial resilience — record production growth (+11% YoY), major pre‑salt milestones, robust EBITDA (~$42.5bn) and operating cash flow ($36bn) despite a 14% decline in Brent. The company also highlighted meaningful reserve additions (1.7 billion barrels, 175% replacement), heavy E&P investment, and progress in low‑carbon fuels. Key risks noted were macro price volatility, lack of a hedging strategy, sizeable gross debt/leasing exposure, and pending transactions/exploratory uncertainties (Braskem approval, equatorial margin results). Overall, positive operational momentum and disciplined capital allocation were judged to outweigh the external and transactional uncertainties.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production Growth
Total oil production increased 11% in 2025 versus 2024, driven by pre-salt ramp-ups and operational efficiency improvements (decline rates reduced from ~12% to ~4%), with efficiency gains contributing ~100,000 barrels/day equivalent.
Pre‑salt Field Milestones
Buzios platforms surpassed 1,000,000 barrels/day in October 2025; Atapu and Sépia reached 1,000,000 barrels/day by December 31, 2025 — resulting in two pre‑salt fields producing >1 million bpd each.
Refining Performance and Premium Product Mix
Refinery utilization averaged ~91–92% in 2025 (guidance to 95% early 2026); ~68–70% of refinery output composed of higher‑value products (diesel, gasoline, QAV). Domestic byproduct sales were 1,747,000 barrels/day (+1.43% YoY); diesel sales +5.2% YoY; QAV (aviation fuel) sales +6% YoY (best in 6 years).
Robust Financial Results Despite Lower Brent
Average Brent was $69/bbl in 2025 (-14% YoY) yet Petrobras delivered adjusted EBITDA of $42.5 billion (or $43.8 billion including special events) roughly in line with the prior year; operating cash flow of $36 billion and net income of ~$19.6 billion (excluding non‑cash/exclusive events).
Reserve Additions and Replacement
Incorporated ~1.7 billion barrels of proven reserves in 2025, achieving the highest proven reserves level in 10 years with a reserve replacement rate of ~175% despite record production.
Focused Investment in E&P
Total investment >$20 billion in 2025 (+22% vs 2024) with 84% allocated to Exploration & Production (~$17 billion), including a record tie‑in of 77 wells (previous top was 57) to accelerate production delivery.
Export and Logistics Strength
Average oil exports in 2025 were 675,000 bpd; exports in Q4 averaged ~999,000 bpd (just shy of 1 million). Notable operational achievements include P‑79 anchoring (record 12 days with 26 anchors) and increased gas processing capacity at Boaventura to 21 million m3/day.
Progress on Low‑Carbon Fuels
Initiated SAF production at Duque de Caxias and Henrique Lage refineries; launched contracts for SAF/green diesel plant at Presidente Bernardes; sold bunker fuel with 24% renewable content to the Asian market — early commercial traction for renewable content products.
Capital Return and Socioeconomic Impact
Board approved payout of BRL 8.1 billion (BRL 0.62/share) paid in two installments; distributed ~BRL 45 billion in dividends in the period; paid ~BRL 277 billion in taxes/royalties; investments supported ~300,000 jobs and ~BRL 2 billion in social/environmental spending.
Operational Execution and Ramp‑ups
Accelerated ramp‑up of platforms (P‑78 gas injection record; P‑79 moored and soon to operate), targeted sailaways for P‑80, P‑82, P‑83 in 2026–2027 — demonstrating ability to execute large projects on accelerated timelines.
Negative Updates
Oil Price Decline and Volatility
Average Brent fell to $69/bbl in 2025 (-14% YoY). Continued geopolitical volatility (Middle East conflict) creates price uncertainty and short‑term market disruptions that require daily re‑planning.
No Active Hedging Strategy
Management stated there is currently no hedging strategy for oil prices (hedging deemed costly and not being pursued), leaving the company more exposed to sudden price swings.
High Gross Debt and Leasing Exposure
Gross debt stood at $69.8 billion as of Dec 31, 2025; ~62% of debt arises from leasing (platforms, ships, rigs). Significant leasing liabilities include Almirante Tamandaré ~$2.6 billion and Alexandre de Gusmão ~$1.1 billion — ongoing debt management required.
Transaction and Governance Uncertainty (Braskem)
Shareholder agreement and related transaction with IG4/Braskem are pending CADE approval, creating uncertainty around potential synergies, capital injections or deal structure and timing.
Exploration Uncertainty in Equatorial Margin
Equatorial margin drilling resumed after licensing, with reservoir interval expected in Q2 2026; outcomes are highly result‑dependent and multiple wells will be required to confirm commercial potential — exploration upside remains uncertain.
Scheduled Refinery Downtimes and Maintenance
Four refineries have scheduled downtimes in 2026 for revamps and maintenance, requiring replanning; while utilization targets remain high, these outages are potential short‑term constraints on refined product availability.
Company Guidance
The management reiterated clear guidance built on three pillars—capital discipline, higher production and greater efficiency—backed by concrete 2025 metrics and short‑term targets: production rose 11% y/y, pre‑salt output delivered record platforms (Buzios, Atapu and Sépia each >1.0 million bpd), Q4 exports averaged 999,000 bpd (675,000 bpd for the year), domestic by‑product sales were 1,747,000 bpd (+1.43% y/y) with diesel sales +5.2% and QAV +6%, refinery utilization ~91–92% (68–70% higher‑value diesel/gasoline/QAV), reserve additions of 1.7 billion barrels (reserve replacement 175%), adjusted EBITDA ~$42.5bn ($43.8bn incl. events), operating cash flow ~$36bn, net income ~$19.6bn (adjusted), gross debt $69.8bn (62% leasing), 2025 CapEx >$20bn (+22%) with ~84% to E&P (~$17bn), Boaventura gas processing at 21 million m3/day and 6.6 million m3/day contracted inflexibly—while reiterating no price hedging, a policy of not passing volatility into domestic prices, possible extraordinary payouts only after protecting planned CapEx (Board approved BRL 8.1bn / BRL 0.62 per share this quarter; BRL 45bn distributed in the year), and ongoing ramp‑ups/anticipations (P‑78/P‑79 ramp‑up focus; P‑80/82/83 sailaways in 2026–27) to sustain cash generation and resilience even with a $69/bbl average Brent in 2025 (‑14% vs 2024).

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong profitability and consistently positive operating/free cash flow, but results are meaningfully cyclical with notable revenue/earnings swings and a weakening free-cash-flow trend versus peak years. Leverage improved versus 2020 but remains a watch item with debt-to-equity drifting higher recently.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Revenue has been choppy—strong growth in 2021–2022, followed by declines in 2023–2024, and a modest rebound in 2025 (annual). Profitability remains a key strength: gross margin has stayed near ~46%–53% across the period and 2025 net margin rebounded sharply to ~22% (from ~8% in 2024). The main weakness is volatility: earnings and margins swung materially (notably the low-profit year in 2020 and the sharp drop in 2024), which is typical for commodity-linked results but still reduces predictability.
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Leverage is moderate-to-elevated: debt-to-equity improved from a high level in 2020 (~1.27x) to healthier levels in 2021–2023 (~0.77x–0.85x), but drifted back up in 2024–2025 (~1.02x and ~0.92x). Equity has grown versus 2020, supporting the capital structure, but total debt remains sizeable. Returns on equity were very strong in 2021–2023 and weakened sharply in 2024, underscoring cyclicality and some balance-sheet sensitivity to the earnings cycle.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow has been consistently strong, and it covered accounting profits in each year shown (coverage a little above 1.0x in 2025, stronger in 2021–2024). Free cash flow is meaningfully positive in all periods, but the trend is weakening—free cash flow declined in 2023 and 2024 and slipped again in 2025 (annual), and free cash flow is less than half of net income in 2025, suggesting higher reinvestment, working-capital drag, or less favorable conditions. Overall, cash flow quality is good but not as robust as the peak years.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue90.81B91.42B105.54B124.47B83.97B
Gross Profit43.25B45.97B55.64B64.99B40.80B
EBITDA43.02B27.46B50.92B69.93B44.90B
Net Income20.10B7.53B25.69B36.62B19.88B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets223.28B181.65B217.07B187.19B174.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.24B7.53B15.55B10.77B11.12B
Total Debt70.09B60.31B62.60B53.80B58.74B
Total Liabilities147.07B122.30B138.09B117.36B104.54B
Stockholders Equity75.88B59.11B78.58B69.49B69.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow16.72B23.34B31.10B40.14B31.47B
Operating Cash Flow36.56B37.98B43.21B49.72B37.79B
Investing Cash Flow-15.72B-13.37B-7.96B-432.00M2.16B
Financing Cash Flow-17.73B-33.09B-30.70B-51.45B-40.79B

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price19.51
Price Trends
50DMA
15.28
Positive
100DMA
13.63
Positive
200DMA
12.78
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.11
Negative
RSI
77.39
Negative
STOCH
86.44
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.31, above the 50-day MA of 15.28, and above the 200-day MA of 12.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.39 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.44 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBR.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$120.11B3.8027.02%14.10%-11.63%-15.67%
71
Outperform
$261.19B12.1010.06%3.92%-6.96%0.03%
67
Neutral
$93.96B12.113.33%7.43%1.53%-35.81%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
62
Neutral
$78.74B19.505.20%5.41%-3.84%15.75%
60
Neutral
$113.26B1,640.390.10%5.62%-4.11%-37.59%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
19.51
6.71
52.36%
BP
BP
43.85
11.15
34.09%
E
Eni SPA
53.70
23.85
79.90%
SHEL
Shell
91.97
23.21
33.76%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
36.94
12.87
53.46%
TTE
TotalEnergies SE
86.04
24.17
39.06%

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras Corporate Events

Petrobras Reports 2025 Year-End Financial Position in March 2026 SEC Filing
Mar 6, 2026

Petrobras has filed its March 2026 Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, providing audited consolidated and parent-company financial statements as of December 31, 2025 and 2024. The filing details the company’s statement of financial position, income, cash flows, changes in equity and extensive notes covering operational segments, risk management, provisions, climate-related disclosures and governance reports.

The data show a rise in total consolidated assets to about 1.22 trillion reais at the end of 2025, driven mainly by growth in property, plant and equipment, cash and inventories, alongside higher provisions for decommissioning, employee benefits and judicial deposits. The release underscores Petrobras’s ongoing heavy capital investment and sizeable long-term obligations, signaling continued balance-sheet strength but also substantial liabilities and commitments that are material for investors, creditors and other stakeholders evaluating its financial resilience and regulatory posture.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Posts Stronger 2025 Balance Sheet Despite Revenue Decline
Mar 6, 2026

Petrobras reported consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, showing total assets of $222.3 billion, up from $181.6 billion at year-end 2024, driven mainly by higher property, plant and equipment and larger judicial deposits and tax-related receivables. The company’s equity attributable to shareholders rose to $75.6 billion from $59.1 billion despite a decline in annual sales revenue to $89.2 billion from $91.4 billion in 2024 and $102.4 billion in 2023, underscoring a balance-sheet strengthening that may support its capital management, decommissioning obligations, and long-term investment capacity.

On the liability side, total current and non-current obligations increased to $146.4 billion as of December 31, 2025, reflecting higher finance debt, lease liabilities, decommissioning provisions, employee benefit commitments, and deferred tax balances. The shift in assets classified as held for sale, growth in inventories and trade receivables, and the expansion of provisioned legal and environmental obligations indicate Petrobras is navigating a capital-intensive operating environment while maintaining robust liquidity through higher cash and cash equivalents and a stronger equity base, developments that are central for creditors, investors, and regulators assessing its risk and resilience profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Board Proposes R$ 41.2 Billion Shareholder Payout for 2025
Mar 6, 2026

On March 5, 2026, Petrobras’ board approved a proposal to submit to the April 16, 2026 Annual General Meeting a distribution of R$ 8.1 billion in shareholder remuneration for the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing total 2025 payouts to R$ 41.2 billion after Selic-rate adjustments and deductions. The planned distribution, equivalent to R$ 0.62622908 per common and preferred share paid in two interest-on-equity installments in May and June 2026, aligns with Petrobras’ policy of returning 45% of free cash flow when debt is at or below its strategic threshold, underscoring a commitment to financial discipline while rewarding both domestic shareholders and NYSE ADR holders on aligned record and payment schedules.

For investors holding shares on B3, the record date is set for April 22, 2026, with ex-rights trading from April 23, while ADR holders on the NYSE will have an April 24, 2026 record date and later payment dates in May and June. By tying the adjustments of each installment to Brazil’s Selic rate and emphasizing that the payout fits within its current shareholder remuneration policy, Petrobras signals confidence in its cash generation and balance-sheet strength, which may support its valuation and reinforce its position as a high-yield name in the global oil and gas sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Posts Record 2025 Production and Reserves Despite Lower Oil Prices
Mar 6, 2026

In 2025, Petrobras delivered record oil and gas production in Brazil, exceeding its annual target and achieving new highs at key pre-salt fields such as Búzios and Mero, despite lower Brent prices and a slight decline in operating cash flow. The company increased refinery utilization to 91%, raised domestic product sales led by diesel, expanded offshore well tie-ins and platform capacity, and executed US$20.3 billion in capex—84% in exploration and production—which drove a 175% organic reserve replacement ratio and the highest proven reserves in a decade.

These operational gains came alongside higher gross and net debt linked to new FPSO lease costs and borrowings, but Petrobras maintained robust adjusted EBITDA and reaffirmed its shareholder remuneration policy, proposing 2025 dividends while retaining part of earnings. In 2025 the company invested heavily in Brazil’s economy, supporting an estimated 308,000 jobs, paying substantial taxes to all levels of government, boosting oil exports to record levels through more efficient ship-to-ship operations, and channeling around R$2 billion into socio-environmental initiatives, sponsorships and donations.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Posts Strong 2025 Cash Flow on Higher Output Despite Lower Brent Prices
Mar 6, 2026

In 2025, Petrobras delivered resilient financial performance in a weaker oil-price environment, with Brent down 14% versus 2024, supported by an 11% increase in total oil and gas production and higher operational efficiency in ultra-deepwater assets. The ramp-up and start-up of key FPSOs, including Almirante Tamandaré, Marechal Duque de Caxias, and units at Búzios, underpinned record oil exports of 999 thousand barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and helped generate adjusted EBITDA of about US$ 43.8 billion and net income of US$ 18.1 billion, both excluding one-off items.

Despite lower Brent prices, adjusted EBITDA excluding one-offs slipped only 4.6% year on year in 2025, as higher domestic sales of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel and reduced operating expenses partially offset pricing pressure. Petrobras maintained strong cash generation, posting US$ 36.0 billion in operating cash flow and US$ 16.5 billion in free cash flow in 2025, while paying R$ 277.6 billion in taxes and distributing R$ 45.2 billion in dividends and interest on equity, signaling continued fiscal relevance to Brazil and ongoing returns to shareholders.

Net income excluding one-off events fell 6.5% versus 2024, but total net income reached US$ 19.6 billion in 2025 when currency effects from the appreciation of the Brazilian real are included. The company’s leverage metrics ticked higher, with gross debt at US$ 69.8 billion and net debt of US$ 60.6 billion at year-end 2025, yet the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio remained modest at 1.42 times, reflecting a still-solid balance sheet.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, adjusted EBITDA excluding one-off events was US$ 10.9 billion, down 8.5% from the prior quarter due to a 7.8% drop in Brent and seasonal weakness in diesel demand, partially offset by larger volumes of crude oil sold and record exports. The board also approved a proposal to submit to the annual general meeting shareholder remuneration of R$ 8.1 billion related to the fourth quarter of 2025 and reported around R$ 2 billion allocated to socio-environmental investments, sponsorships, and donations, highlighting a continued social and sustainability agenda alongside capital discipline.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Unveils 2026 Board and Fiscal Council Slates From State and Minority Shareholders
Mar 5, 2026

On March 4, 2026, Petrobras reported that Brazil’s federal government, its controlling shareholder, has nominated eight candidates for its Board of Directors and six for its Fiscal Council ahead of the 2026 Shareholders’ General Meeting, mostly reappointing current directors while adding new names. Minority shareholders, including funds managed by Banco Clássico, Robeco, Franklin Templeton, and Royal London Asset Management, have also put forward board and fiscal council candidates, while employees elected Rosangela Buzanelli Torres to the board for the 2026–2028 term, with all nominations still subject to Petrobras’ eligibility, governance, and integrity vetting processes, underscoring ongoing shareholder engagement in shaping the company’s oversight structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Schedules March 6 Webcast for Fourth-Quarter 2025 Results
Feb 25, 2026

On February 25, 2026, Petrobras announced it would present its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 in a webcast scheduled for March 6, 2026. The presentation, aimed at investors and the broader market, will be conducted in Portuguese with simultaneous English translation, signaling the company’s continued efforts to maintain transparency and engage its global investor base through accessible disclosure of its quarterly performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Declines Preemptive and Tag-Along Rights in Braskem Share Transaction
Feb 12, 2026

On February 11, 2026, Petrobras’ Board of Directors reviewed a potential transaction involving the transfer of Braskem S.A. shares held by NSP Investimentos, a Novonor subsidiary, to Shine I Fundo de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios. The board decided Petrobras will not exercise its preemptive and tag-along rights under the current Braskem shareholders’ agreement and authorized the executive board to take the steps needed to implement this stance.

The decision signals Petrobras’ choice, at this stage of negotiations, not to intervene in the planned reallocation of Braskem’s control-related shares, potentially altering Petrobras’ future influence over the petrochemical group. The company stated it will promptly inform the market once it is formally notified of the final terms of the transaction, underscoring ongoing uncertainty for investors and other stakeholders around Braskem’s shareholder structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Updates 3Q25 Shareholder Payout, Sets February 20 Payment
Feb 12, 2026

On February 12, 2026, Petrobras announced details of the monetary update to the first installment of shareholder remuneration tied to the 2025 fiscal year, based on the September 30, 2025 balance sheet and shareholder position as of December 22, 2025. The payment, scheduled for February 20, 2026, will be made as interest on capital for common and preferred shares, with the gross amount per share updated by the Selic rate between December 31, 2025 and February 20, 2026, bringing the total to R$0.48052467 per share before tax.

The company noted that income tax will be charged on both the interest on capital and the Selic-based monetary adjustment, in line with Brazilian regulations. Payments will be processed through Banco Bradesco for book-entry shareholders, via brokers for investors holding shares in B3 custody, and from February 27, 2026 for ADR holders through JP Morgan Chase, underscoring Petrobras’s ongoing cash returns to a broad base of domestic and international shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Lifts 2025 Output and Export Records as P-78 Delivers First Oil in Búzios
Feb 11, 2026

In 2025, Petrobras’ total oil and natural gas production rose 11% year on year to 2.99 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, surpassing its guidance range, driven by higher capacity and efficiency in pre-salt FPSOs such as Almirante Tamandaré, Marechal Duque de Caxias, and new units including P-78, which achieved first oil on December 31, 2025 in the Búzios field. The company posted record operated and own production, added 1.7 billion boe in reserves for a 175% reserve replacement rate, and improved gas utilization, reinforcing the sustainability of its portfolio and its leading role in Brazil’s pre-salt development.

Refining and marketing operations also advanced, with domestic oil product sales up 1.6% in 2025, record oil exports of 765 thousand barrels per day and a quarterly record of 1 million barrels per day in fourth-quarter 2025, supported by logistics milestones in ship-to-ship operations and terminal throughput. Petrobras increased refinery utilization to 91%, completed the revamp of RNEST Train 1 and signed contracts for Train 2, expanded S-10 diesel and jet fuel output through new and upgraded hydrotreatment units, and progressed integration and new projects aimed at higher value fuels and lower-carbon products, reshaping its downstream footprint for future demand and environmental requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Receives R$1.65 Billion Earnout From Sépia and Atapu Partners for 2025
Feb 6, 2026

On February 6, 2026, Petrobras reported it had received R$ 1.65 billion in earnout payments from its partners in the Sépia and Atapu pre-salt fields, including TotalEnergies, PETRONAS, QatarEnergy and Shell, relating to additional compensation for fiscal year 2025. The payment stems from the Brazilian government’s 2nd Bidding Round for Transfer of Rights surplus under the production sharing regime and is triggered when Brent crude prices exceed an annual average of US$40 per barrel (capped at US$70), underscoring how Petrobras’s cash flows from these key assets are linked to oil price dynamics and long-term contractual structures that will generate potential earnouts between 2022 and 2032.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Returns to Namibia With 42.5% Stake in Offshore Block 2613
Feb 6, 2026

On February 6, 2026, Petrobras announced it had acquired a 42.5% stake in offshore Block 2613 in Namibia’s Lüderitz Basin, alongside partner TotalEnergies, which also took 42.5% and will operate the block, while Namcor holds 10% and Eight Offshore retains 5% after exiting partner Maravilla Oil & Gas sold out. The move marks Petrobras’ return to Namibia and fits within its 2026–2030 Business Plan, signaling a push into new exploration frontiers and strategic partnerships to diversify its portfolio and rebuild reserves, although completion of the deal still depends on Namibian governmental and regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Sets February–March Schedule to Release 4Q25 Results
Feb 4, 2026

On February 4, 2026, Petrobras announced its schedule for disclosing fourth-quarter 2025 performance, stating that it will publish its 4Q25 Production and Sales Report on February 10, 2026, and its 4Q25 Financial Results on March 5, 2026, both after market close. The company also plans to hold a webcast on March 6, 2026 to present and discuss the quarterly results with investors, signaling upcoming visibility into operational and financial trends that will be closely watched by markets and stakeholders given Petrobras’s central role in Brazil’s energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Lifts 2025 Proved Reserves to 12.1 Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent
Jan 28, 2026

On January 28, 2026, Petrobras reported that its proved reserves of oil, condensate and natural gas under SEC criteria reached 12.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent as of December 31, 2025, with oil and condensate accounting for 84% of the total and natural gas 16%. In 2025 the company added 1.7 billion boe of reserves, achieving a reserve replacement rate of 175% despite record annual production, and an estimated reserves-to-production ratio of 12.5 years, driven mainly by strong performance and new wells in key offshore fields such as Búzios, Tupi, Itapu, Mero, Marlim Sul and Jubarte, and by progress in developing the Budião cluster in deepwater Sergipe-Alagoas, underscoring the resilience of its portfolio and its emphasis on maximizing recovery and diversifying exploration to sustain long-term output. Petrobras also disclosed that 90% of its SEC proved reserves are certified by independent evaluator DeGolyer and MacNaughton, and that its proved reserves under Brazilian ANP/SPE definitions stood slightly higher at 12.5 billion boe at year-end 2025, mainly reflecting different economic assumptions and the inclusion of volumes expected beyond concession terms.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Sets Record 2025 Output, Beating Production Targets on Pre-Salt Strength
Jan 16, 2026

In 2025, Petrobras’ oil production averaged 2.40 million barrels per day, surpassing the upper limit of its 2025 guidance by 0.5 percentage points and marking an 11% increase on 2024 levels. Total oil and natural gas output reached 2.99 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, also 11% higher than in 2024, while commercial production rose to 2.62 million boed, with all three metrics setting new annual records in the company’s more than 70-year history. The company achieved record pre-salt volumes, with own production of 2.45 million boed and operated production of 3.70 million boed, so that pre-salt now accounts for 82% of total production. These results, disclosed on January 15, 2026, were driven by the start-up of two new FPSOs in the Santos Basin pre-salt (Almirante Tamandaré in Búzios and Alexandre de Gusmão in Mero), the production peak of FPSO Marechal Duque de Caxias, continued ramp-up of other FPSOs in Jubarte, Marlim and Voador, and higher operational efficiency across units. Petrobras also highlighted that operated production in the Búzios field reached 1 million barrels per day with only six platforms, underscoring the field’s high productivity and reinforcing the company’s strategic reliance on pre-salt assets for future growth and operational scale.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Buy with a $14.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Sets Date for 2026 Annual General Meeting on April 16
Jan 14, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Petrobras announced that its 2026 Annual General Meeting is scheduled to be held on April 16, 2026, in line with the company’s Annual Corporate Events Calendar. The specific time, location, and format of the meeting will be disclosed at a later date, signaling the start of the formal governance and shareholder-engagement cycle for the year but without yet detailing agenda items or operational implications for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Ramps Up Pre-Salt Output as P-78 FPSO Starts Production in Búzios Field
Jan 2, 2026

On December 31, 2025, Petrobras started production from the FPSO P-78 in the Búzios field’s Búzios 6 project in the pre-salt Santos Basin, adding capacity of 180,000 barrels of oil per day and 7.2 million cubic meters of gas per day. The new unit, the seventh production system in Brazil’s largest field by reserves, lifts Búzios’ installed capacity to about 1.15 million barrels per day and will support gas exports to shore via the Rota 3 pipeline, potentially increasing Brazil’s gas supply by up to 3 million cubic meters per day. P-78 marks the debut of a new generation of Petrobras-designed FPSOs that incorporate lessons from earlier pre-salt units, tighter quality and efficiency standards for shipyards, and emissions-reducing technologies such as flare gas recovery and energy integration systems. The project involves 13 wells equipped with intelligent completions and a network of rigid and flexible pipelines using innovative mooring solutions to handle high production rates, underscoring Petrobras’s push to enhance operational efficiency and consolidate its leading role in Brazil’s ultra-deepwater oil and gas sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Seals Multi‑Billion‑Dollar Long‑Term Feedstock Supply Deals With Braskem
Dec 19, 2025

On December 18, 2025, Petrobras announced it had signed a series of new long‑term related‑party commercial contracts with petrochemical producer Braskem to replace expiring agreements and secure future supply arrangements. The deals include five‑year naphtha supply contracts for Braskem’s plants in São Paulo, Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul, worth an estimated US$11.3 billion and allowing deliveries of up to 4.116 million tons in 2026 and 4.316 million tons in 2030 starting January 1, 2026; an 11‑year, US$5.6 billion contract for ethane, propane and hydrogen to Braskem’s operations in Rio de Janeiro, maintaining current volumes through 2028 and increasing from 2029 to support a planned expansion; and five‑year propylene supply contracts from the Reduc, Recap and Refap refineries totaling an estimated US$940 million from May 18, 2026. Classified as related‑party transactions, the contracts were reviewed by Petrobras’ Statutory Audit Committee and are positioned as market‑based, commutative agreements, underscoring Petrobras’ strategy to lock in substantial, benchmark‑linked revenue streams while reinforcing its role as a critical feedstock supplier to Brazil’s petrochemical chain and providing Braskem with long‑term volume and pricing visibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Partners with Lightsource bp for Renewable Energy Expansion in Brazil
Dec 16, 2025

On December 16, 2025, Petrobras announced a strategic partnership with Lightsource bp to form a joint venture in Brazil’s onshore renewable energy sector. This collaboration involves Petrobras acquiring a 49.99% stake in Lightsource bp’s Brazilian subsidiaries, aiming to develop profitable renewable energy projects and strengthen their presence in the sector. This move marks a significant step for Petrobras into solar power generation, aligning with its Business Plan 2026-2030 to diversify its energy portfolio and commit to sustainability. The deal is pending regulatory approvals, and its financial impact on Petrobras is not considered materially significant at this stage.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Monitors Potential Braskem Share Transaction Amid Novonor Negotiations
Dec 16, 2025

On December 15, 2025, Petrobras announced it has been informed by Novonor S.A. and its subsidiary NSP Investimentos S.A. about an exclusivity agreement with Shine I Fundo de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios, managed by Vórtx Capital and advised by IG4 Sol. Ltda. This agreement grants a 60-day period for negotiating a potential transaction involving shares of Braskem S.A. held by NSP Inv. and credits against Novonor guaranteed by these shares. Petrobras, which holds preemptive and tag-along rights under Braskem’s shareholders’ agreement, will monitor the situation and evaluate whether to exercise these rights. The company is also considering a new shareholders’ agreement amid ongoing negotiations and emphasizes that any decisions will adhere to its governance practices and regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Petrobras Announces Shareholder Remuneration for Q3 2025
Dec 11, 2025

On December 11, 2025, Petrobras announced the distribution of R$ 12.16 billion in shareholder remuneration for the third quarter of 2025, as approved by its Board of Directors on November 6, 2025. The payout will be divided into two installments, with the first installment paid on February 20, 2026, and the second on March 20, 2026. The payments will be adjusted by the Selic rate and subject to income tax on the interest portion. This move reflects Petrobras’ commitment to returning value to its shareholders and could impact its financial planning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (PBR) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras stock, see the PBR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 11, 2026