Ternium SA (TX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.41B
• Dividend Yield: 7.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 239.83K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: -16.69%
• EPS Growth: 585.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 33,949
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 196,307,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 179,986
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 239,833
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.48
• P/FCF Ratio: -40.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.61
• 1Y Price Target: $39.00
• Price Target Upside: 3.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $16.64B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $41.00 ▲(8.67% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

TX scores as a mid-range cyclical: financial performance is pressured by weaker revenues/margins and negative 2025 free cash flow, partially offset by a solid balance sheet. Technicals are moderately positive with stable momentum and price above key longer-term averages. Valuation is supported by a high dividend yield and a moderate P/E. Earnings call commentary points to improving EBITDA into 2026 and declining CapEx longer term, but near-term headwinds (safety incidents, below-target margins, and a likely move to modest net debt) cap the score.

Positive Factors

Operating Cash Generation

Sustained operating cash flow across the cycle demonstrates durable cash-generating capability that supports heavy capital programs, dividends and working capital needs. This provides financial flexibility to invest in downstream capacity and weather cyclical troughs without immediate capital markets dependence.

Downstream Capacity Expansion

Ramp-up of cold-rolling, galvanizing and finishing at Pesqueria shifts mix toward higher value‑added, specialty and automotive steels. That downstream integration typically sustains higher per‑ton realizations and stickier customer relationships, improving long‑term margin resilience versus basic slab or commodity sales.

Solid Balance Sheet

A strong equity base and low industry-relative leverage provide structural resilience in steel's cyclical downturns, enabling funding of capex and acquisitions, preserving dividend capacity, and reducing refinancing vulnerability during multi-year investment cycles and trade-policy volatility.

Negative Factors

Revenue and Margin Weakness

Material revenue decline and compressed margins reflect weaker pricing and product‑mix headwinds that reduce normalized earnings power. Persistent margin dispersion versus target (10% EBITDA in 2025 vs 15–20% target) limits cash conversion and heightens sensitivity to any prolonged demand softness.

High Near‑Term CapEx and FCF Pressure

Elevated capex plans and a 2025 negative free cash flow position reduce liquidity headroom and increase leverage risk temporarily. Structural cash deployment for upstream/downstream projects constrains free cash flow available for discretionary uses and raises execution and refinancing requirements into 2027.

Operational and Safety Risks

Repeated fatal incidents create lasting operational, regulatory and reputational risks that can increase compliance costs, slow project timelines, attract fines or restrictions, and weaken workforce morale. Such structural safety shortcomings can materially affect long‑term operational reliability and stakeholder trust.

Ternium SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ternium S.A. manufactures, processes, and sells various steel products in Mexico, Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, Bolivia, Uruguay, Brazil, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. It operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, billets and round bars, hot rolled flat products, merchant bars, reinforcing bars, stirrups and rods, tin plate and galvanized products, tubes, beams, insulated panels, roofing and cladding, roof tiles, steel decks, pre-engineered metal building systems, and pig iron products; and sells energy. The Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. The company also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services, as well as operates as a distribution company. It serves various companies and small businesses in the construction, automotive, home appliances, agro, packaging, transport, and energy industries. The company was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.

How the Company Makes Money

Ternium makes money primarily by selling steel products and related value-added steel processing services to industrial customers, distributors, and end users. Its core revenue stream is the sale of finished steel—particularly flat products (e.g., hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil and sheet, galvanized and other coated products) and long products (e.g., rebar, wire rod, and other construction-oriented items, where applicable by facility). The company typically generates higher revenue per ton by moving production downstream into finished and coated products and by providing processing and finishing services (such as galvanizing/coating and custom cut-to-length/slitting or similar services), which allow it to charge premiums relative to more basic steel outputs. Earnings are influenced by (1) shipment volumes, (2) realized selling prices and product mix (the share of higher value-added products), and (3) spread management between selling prices and input costs such as iron ore, scrap, coal/coke, energy, and purchased slabs. Ternium also benefits from supplying steel under commercial relationships with large industrial customers in sectors like automotive and appliances, where consistent quality, delivery reliability, and long-term supply arrangements can support stable volumes and value-added product demand. Any specific partnerships or contract terms not publicly detailed are null.

Ternium SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals in a cyclical downturn: revenues declined in 2025 and margins compressed versus prior peaks, with a loss in 2024 and only modest profitability recovery in 2025. The balance sheet is a relative strength with manageable leverage, but free cash flow turned negative in 2025 despite healthy operating cash flow, raising near-term cash-conversion and capital discipline risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has been essentially flat in 2023–2024 and declined in 2025 (annual revenue down from ~$17.6B to ~$15.6B). Profitability has also been volatile: strong profits in 2021–2023, a small loss in 2024, and a return to modest profitability in 2025 (~$425M). Margins have compressed materially from 2021 peaks (2024 gross margin ~16% and negative net margin), suggesting weaker pricing/spreads and a more challenging steel cycle; the 2025 profit recovery is a positive, but overall earnings power looks less stable than earlier years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength with a large equity base (~$11.9B in 2024–2025) and moderate leverage (2024 debt-to-equity ~0.15). Total debt increased into 2025 (~$2.6B versus ~$1.8B in 2024), which reduces flexibility versus prior years, but leverage still appears manageable for the industry. Returns on equity swung from strong levels in 2021–2022 to negative in 2024, highlighting cyclicality in profitability even though the capital structure remains solid.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains healthy (roughly $1.9B–$2.8B across 2021–2025), indicating the core business is still generating cash through the cycle. However, free cash flow has weakened sharply—strongly positive in 2021–2023, barely positive in 2024, and negative in 2025 (~-$187M), implying heavier investment and/or working-capital pressure. Cash generation quality also deteriorated in 2024 with free cash flow only a small fraction of net results, and the 2025 negative free cash flow is a key near-term risk despite solid operating cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.61B	17.65B	17.61B	16.41B	16.09B
Gross Profit	2.34B	2.89B	5.26B	3.93B	6.20B
EBITDA	1.42B	1.67B	2.16B	3.33B	6.38B
Net Income	425.23M	-53.67M	676.04M	1.77B	3.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	23.62B	23.13B	24.18B	17.49B	17.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.13B	3.85B	3.82B	3.53B	2.57B
Total Debt	2.61B	1.79B	1.47B	771.85M	916.09M
Total Liabilities	7.47B	7.00B	7.37B	3.72B	4.86B
Stockholders Equity	11.94B	11.97B	12.42B	11.85B	10.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-187.23M	40.74M	1.04B	2.17B	2.15B
Operating Cash Flow	2.31B	1.91B	2.50B	2.75B	2.68B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.98B	-1.38B	-1.47B	-1.32B	-1.05B
Financing Cash Flow	-500.58M	-488.38M	-766.36M	-1.02B	-854.38M

Ternium SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 37.73
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.77, below the 50-day MA of 42.05, and above the 200-day MA of 35.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.67 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TX.

Ternium SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SIM	69 Neutral	$4.82B	61.64	5.84%	―	-16.81%	-67.68%
CMC	67 Neutral	$6.77B	10.04	10.54%	1.02%	-1.61%	-81.36%
TX	65 Neutral	$7.41B	17.63	3.53%	7.02%	-16.69%	585.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
GGB	61 Neutral	$6.25B	29.29	2.53%	2.92%	-2.53%	-36.08%
SID	53 Neutral	$1.42B	-19.29	-10.50%	―	-5.79%	-5.30%
CLF	45 Neutral	$4.83B	-4.42	-24.89%	―	-6.76%	-255.94%

Ternium SA Corporate Events

Ternium Files 2025 Consolidated Results, Books New Provision on Usiminas Litigation

On February 17, 2026, Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing its consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2025. The filing also includes comparative figures for 2024 and 2023, offering investors and analysts full income, balance sheet, cash flow and equity data for assessing performance trends.

For 2025, Ternium reported net sales of $15.61 billion, down from $17.65 billion in 2024, with gross profit declining to $2.35 billion and operating income dropping to $705 million. Results were further affected by ongoing litigation related to its Usiminas stake, for which Ternium recorded a $117.4 million provision in 2025 following a larger $410.2 million charge in 2024, underscoring continuing legal and financial risks around that investment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TX) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ternium SA stock, see the TX Stock Forecast page.

Ternium Posts Lower 2025 Earnings but Lifts Dividend as Mining Volumes Rise

Ternium S.A. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026, showing essentially stable steel shipments but continued softness in pricing and profitability. In the fourth quarter, steel shipments were 3.7 million tons, mining shipments rose to 3.4 million tons, net sales slipped to $3.8 billion, and adjusted EBITDA reached $395 million with a 10.5% margin, while net income came in at $171 million and earnings per ADS were $0.62.

For full-year 2025, Ternium posted $15.6 billion in net sales, down 12% from 2024, with operating income falling 44% to $705 million and adjusted EBITDA declining 24% to $1.54 billion as weaker steel prices weighed on margins. The company generated $528 million in fourth-quarter cash from operations, invested $463 million in capex, and proposed an annual dividend of $2.70 per ADS, signaling a continued commitment to shareholder returns despite a tougher earnings environment and shifting product and mining mix.

The most recent analyst rating on (TX) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ternium SA stock, see the TX Stock Forecast page.

Ternium Completes $315 Million Purchase of Nippon Group’s Remaining Stake in Usiminas Control Block

On February 10, 2026, Ternium S.A. announced that its subsidiary Ternium Investments S.à r.l. completed the acquisition of 153.1 million ordinary shares of Brazilian steelmaker Usiminas from Nippon Steel Corporation and Mitsubishi Corporation. The all-cash deal, valued at approximately $315.2 million, gives Ternium full control over the Nippon Group’s remaining stake in Usiminas’ control group, consolidating Ternium’s influence in the Brazilian steel market and potentially reinforcing its strategic position in the regional steel industry supply chain.

The completion of this previously disclosed transaction marks a significant step in Ternium’s expansion strategy in Brazil’s steel sector. By increasing its shareholding in Usiminas’ control group, Ternium may gain greater operational and governance leverage in one of Latin America’s key steel producers, with implications for competitive dynamics and long-term integration across its regional operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TX) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ternium SA stock, see the TX Stock Forecast page.