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Twin Disc
(NASDAQ:TWIN)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$26.00
▲(52.14% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is primarily supported by improving fundamentals and a positive earnings-call outlook with strong backlog visibility and margin/EBITDA recovery. This is tempered by weak free-cash-flow conversion and modest liquidity relative to debt, while technicals are supportive but near-overbought, and valuation is reasonable with limited dividend support.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & Backlog Visibility
Strong top-line momentum and a sizable six-month backlog provide durable near-term revenue visibility. This improves planning for production, supports operating leverage and makes margin targets more achievable, reducing execution risk across core marine and industrial end markets.
Negative Factors
Weak Free Cash Flow & Cash Conversion
Despite improved accounting earnings, free cash flow is almost breakeven and conversion is very low, indicating earnings are not yet translating into durable cash. Persistent low cash generation limits the company’s ability to pay down debt, fund growth, or return capital without relying on external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth & Backlog Visibility
Strong top-line momentum and a sizable six-month backlog provide durable near-term revenue visibility. This improves planning for production, supports operating leverage and makes margin targets more achievable, reducing execution risk across core marine and industrial end markets.
Read all positive factors
Twin Disc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Segment
Reveals which business or geographic segments generate the most sales, helping you see where Twin Disc has market strength and where growth or decline is occurring. Shifts in segment mix can indicate strategic changes, exposure to cyclical end markets, or new opportunities for expansion.
Reveals which business or geographic segments generate the most sales, helping you see where Twin Disc has market strength and where growth or decline is occurring. Shifts in segment mix can indicate strategic changes, exposure to cyclical end markets, or new opportunities for expansion.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTwin Disc (TWIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$348.89M
Dividend Yield0.95%
Average Volume (3M)26.93K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth10.68%
EPS Growth529.24%
CountryUS
Employees910
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.87
Shares Outstanding14,422,827
10 Day Avg. Volume28,734
30 Day Avg. Volume26,927
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.54
Price to Book (P/B)0.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.36
P/FCF Ratio13.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.17
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$402.00M
Twin Disc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Twin Disc, Incorporated is a global enterprise specializing in the design, production, and sale of robust power transmission equipment for both marine and heavy-duty off-highway applications. The company operates through two primary divisions: Man...
How the Company Makes Money
Twin Disc makes money by selling engineered power transmission and propulsion products and by supporting those products over their life cycle through aftermarket parts and service. Its revenue model is generally composed of: (1) Original equipment...
Twin Disc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a clear operational improvement: meaningful revenue growth (+19% YoY), strong margin expansion (gross margin 28.1%), a substantial EBITDA recovery (+~135% YoY) and positive backlog momentum (six-month backlog ~$179.5M). Defense demand is a growing, durable component of backlog (defense backlog +~20% YoY, pipeline $50–75M). Headwinds include increased leverage from the Cobalt acquisition (net debt +10.5%), modest free cash flow relative to debt, tariff/FX exposure, and some timing-related shipment delays (notably China oil & gas). Overall, the positives — strong top-line growth, margin improvement, EBITDA recovery, and backlog visibility — materially outweigh the manageable lowlights.Positive Updates
Revenue and Organic Growth
Total sales of $96.7 million, up 19% year-over-year; organic sales growth of 7%, driven by strength in Marine & Propulsion, defense, and select industrial applications.
Negative Updates
Increased Leverage from Acquisition
Total debt increased to $45.1 million and net debt rose to approximately $29 million — a 10.5% increase in net debt primarily attributable to the Cobalt acquisition, increasing leverage and financing costs risk.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Organic Growth
Total sales of $96.7 million, up 19% year-over-year; organic sales growth of 7%, driven by strength in Marine & Propulsion, defense, and select industrial applications.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said they see solid near-term visibility and expect continued progress, pointing to a six‑month backlog of roughly $179.5 million (defense ~15% of backlog; defense backlog up ~20% year‑over‑year with a $50–$75 million pipeline), and said backlog conversion, improving mix and operational initiatives should support ongoing revenue and margin improvement; they cautioned tariff headwinds of roughly 1–3% of cost of goods sold in the upcoming quarter, expect stronger cash generation into Q4 after $1.8 million of free cash flow in Q3, and continue to invest while managing the balance sheet (cash ≈ $16.1 million, total debt $45.1 million, net debt ≈ $29 million), noting working‑capital improvements (inventory down ≈ $3 million and inventory ≈ 89% of backlog) that support converting backlog to revenue.Twin Disc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 363.55M | 340.74M | 295.13M | 276.96M | 242.91M | 218.58M |
| Gross Profit | 102.45M | 92.73M | 83.32M | 74.33M | 68.81M | 50.86M |
| EBITDA | 24.77M | 19.31M | 26.79M | 26.08M | 24.28M | 3.76M |
| Net Income | 26.60M | -1.89M | 10.99M | 10.38M | 10.47M | -29.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 391.02M | 355.56M | 312.06M | 289.18M | 276.52M | 275.41M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.11M | 16.11M | 20.07M | 13.26M | 12.52M | 12.34M |
| Total Debt | 66.97M | 49.20M | 48.22M | 29.44M | 47.12M | 44.97M |
| Total Liabilities | 204.49M | 191.17M | 157.00M | 143.66M | 145.34M | 144.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 185.66M | 164.01M | 154.70M | 145.09M | 130.78M | 130.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 774.00K | 8.82M | 25.01M | 14.98M | -13.04M | 2.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 18.79M | 23.98M | 33.72M | 22.90M | -8.31M | 6.53M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -19.09M | -32.90M | -32.07M | -408.00K | 5.90M | -2.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.51M | -965.00K | 2.75M | -19.51M | 4.05M | -4.32M |
Twin Disc Technical Analysis
Positive
17.09
Price Trends
18.40
Positive
17.50
Positive
16.52
Positive
Market Momentum
1.48
Negative
77.26
Negative
90.35
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TWIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.15, below the 50-day MA of 18.40, and above the 200-day MA of 16.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.26 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.35 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TWIN.
Twin Disc Risk Analysis
Twin Disc disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Twin Disc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Twin Disc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $8.01B | 180.83 | 2.83% | 0.56% | 10.21% | -48.98% | |
70 Outperform | $4.77B | 31.58 | 11.47% | 1.06% | 7.98% | -13.65% | |
69 Neutral | $3.83B | 35.78 | 10.74% | 0.46% | 4.88% | -7.08% | |
68 Neutral | $348.89M | 12.57 | 15.32% | 0.95% | 10.68% | 529.24% | |
68 Neutral | $16.40B | 87.60 | 7.18% | ― | -0.51% | -44.42% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TWIN
Twin Disc
23.54
14.82
169.80%
NPO
Enpro
372.50
181.93
95.46%
FELE
Franklin Electric Co
105.49
16.74
18.86%
GNRC
Generac Holdings
283.81
140.60
98.18%
KAI
Kadant
313.77
-2.29
-0.72%
Twin Disc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Twin Disc Delivers Strong Q3 Sales and Profit Rebound
Positive
May 6, 2026
Twin Disc reported that for the third quarter ended March 27, 2026, sales climbed 19.0% year over year to $96.7 million, led by strong demand for Veth products in Marine and Propulsion Systems and double-digit growth in North America. Gross margin...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Twin Disc Updates Investor Presentation With Non-GAAP Metrics
Neutral
May 6, 2026
Twin Disc said its executive officers planned to begin presenting updated materials to investors and analysts on or after May 6, 2026, with the same deck also made available on the company’s website. The company emphasized that these materia...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.