Twin Disc Inc. (TWIN)
NASDAQ:TWIN
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Twin Disc
(NASDAQ:TWIN)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▼(-6.38% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/06/26
The score reflects improved multi-year fundamentals but meaningful cash-flow inconsistency and thin/volatile operating profitability (largest driver). Technical indicators are bearish with the stock trading below key moving averages, which further weighs on the score. These negatives are partially offset by very low P/E-based valuation and a balanced earnings outlook supported by record backlog and defense demand, despite near-term tariff and EBITDA pressure.
Positive Factors
Record backlog & defense pipeline
A record $175.3M backlog and a >$50M defense pipeline provide multi‑quarter revenue visibility and reduce cyclicality. Defense and naval contracts are typically multi‑year, improving predictability of shipments, supporting capacity planning, and underpinning durable revenue conversion as backlog converts to cash.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent free cash flow
Free cash flow volatility limits the firm’s ability to consistently deleverage, fund capex, or return capital. Breakeven FCF despite positive operating cash reflects elevated working capital and reinvestment needs; this weakens balance‑sheet optionality and raises financing risk during slower shipment periods.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record backlog & defense pipeline
A record $175.3M backlog and a >$50M defense pipeline provide multi‑quarter revenue visibility and reduce cyclicality. Defense and naval contracts are typically multi‑year, improving predictability of shipments, supporting capacity planning, and underpinning durable revenue conversion as backlog converts to cash.
Read all positive factors
Twin Disc (TWIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$216.76M
Dividend Yield0.95%
Average Volume (3M)26.93K
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.7
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth8.31%
EPS Growth125.40%
CountryUS
Employees910
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.53
Shares Outstanding14,421,658
10 Day Avg. Volume28,734
30 Day Avg. Volume26,927
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.55
Price to Book (P/B)0.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.36
P/FCF Ratio13.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.70
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.58
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$370.90M
Twin Disc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Twin Disc, Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells marine and heavy duty off-highway power transmission equipment worldwide. It operates through two segments, Manufacturing and Distribution. The company's products include marine transmission...
How the Company Makes Money
Twin Disc primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling engineered drivetrain and marine propulsion products to OEMs and end users. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Original equipment sales—sales of new marine transmissions, propuls...
Twin Disc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Twin Disc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but balanced picture: structurally positive elements include a record backlog (+41.4% YoY), strong defense demand (pipeline >$50M, backlog up 18% sequentially), and industrial growth (+22% YoY). However, near-term operating challenges are notable — organic revenue declined ~7.9%, EBITDA fell 25% YoY, tariff headwinds (~3% of cost of sales) and working capital/inventory increases pressured cash flow. Management outlined credible mitigation actions (footprint moves, assembly relocation to tariff-advantaged locations) and expects improvements as shipment patterns normalize and mitigation takes effect, with some benefits expected in FY27. Given the comparable weight of meaningful operational headwinds and strong structural positives, the net tone is balanced.Positive Updates
Record Backlog and Strong Defense Demand
Backlog reached a record $175.3 million, up 41.4% year-over-year and 7% sequentially. Defense-related backlog grew 18% sequentially and the defense pipeline exceeds $50 million, driven by naval, autonomous vessel, and NATO land-based programs.
Negative Updates
Organic Revenue Decline
On an organic basis (adjusting for M&A and FX), revenue decreased approximately 7.9% year-over-year in the quarter, driven in part by shipment delays as customers timed orders around tariffs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Backlog and Strong Defense Demand
Backlog reached a record $175.3 million, up 41.4% year-over-year and 7% sequentially. Defense-related backlog grew 18% sequentially and the defense pipeline exceeds $50 million, driven by naval, autonomous vessel, and NATO land-based programs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said tariff-related impacts (about 3% of cost of sales in Q2) should moderate in coming quarters as mix improves and mitigation actions — pricing discipline, operational/footprint changes and moving RF/ARF assembly to Lufkin (tariff-advantaged, expected to remove roughly 10 percentage points of gross‑margin drag on those units by fiscal 2027) — take effect; they pointed to a record backlog of $175.3M (up 41.4% YoY, +7% sequentially) with defense backlog up 18% sequentially and a defense pipeline exceeding $50M providing visibility into 2026 and supporting stronger H2 revenue. In Q2 they reported $90.2M sales (+0.3% YoY; organic -7.9%), $22.4M gross profit (+3.2%), 24.8% gross margin (+70 bps), $4.7M EBITDA (-25% YoY), net income $22.4M ($1.55/share, reflecting a $21.8M tax benefit), ME&A $20.7M, free cash flow $1.2M, inventory as a percent of backlog improved ~400 bps, net debt $29M and cash $14.9M (-6.4%); management expects backlog conversion to improve working capital and cash generation as shipment patterns normalize.Twin Disc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 348.10M | 340.74M | 295.13M | 276.96M | 242.91M | 218.58M |
| Gross Profit | 97.03M | 92.73M | 83.32M | 74.33M | 68.81M | 50.86M |
| EBITDA | 20.79M | 19.31M | 26.79M | 26.08M | 24.28M | 3.76M |
| Net Income | 21.80M | -1.89M | 10.99M | 10.38M | 10.47M | -29.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 384.01M | 355.56M | 312.06M | 289.18M | 276.52M | 275.41M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.89M | 16.11M | 20.07M | 13.26M | 12.52M | 12.34M |
| Total Debt | 47.96M | 49.20M | 48.22M | 29.44M | 47.12M | 44.97M |
| Total Liabilities | 198.84M | 191.17M | 157.00M | 143.66M | 145.34M | 144.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 184.53M | 164.01M | 154.70M | 145.09M | 130.78M | 130.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.00K | 8.82M | 25.01M | 14.98M | -13.04M | 2.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.70M | 23.98M | 33.72M | 22.90M | -8.31M | 6.53M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.54M | -32.90M | -32.07M | -408.00K | 5.90M | -2.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 12.64M | -965.00K | 2.75M | -19.51M | 4.05M | -4.32M |
Twin Disc Technical Analysis
Positive
17.09
Price Trends
16.63
Positive
16.61
Positive
14.49
Positive
Market Momentum
0.37
Negative
58.73
Neutral
62.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TWIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.23, above the 50-day MA of 16.63, and above the 200-day MA of 14.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TWIN.
Twin Disc Risk Analysis
Twin Disc disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Twin Disc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Twin Disc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $6.12B | -35.30 | 2.69% | 0.56% | 9.02% | -34.29% | |
70 Outperform | $4.37B | 29.67 | 11.47% | 1.06% | 7.98% | -13.65% | |
68 Neutral | $15.08B | 38.94 | 7.18% | ― | -0.51% | -44.42% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $3.38B | 35.10 | 10.90% | 0.46% | -0.11% | -8.89% | |
61 Neutral | $216.76M | 2.69 | 13.25% | 0.95% | 8.31% | 125.40% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TWIN
Twin Disc
15.03
8.31
123.73%
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Twin Disc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Twin Disc Delivers Strong Q3 Sales and Profit Rebound
Positive
May 6, 2026
Twin Disc reported that for the third quarter ended March 27, 2026, sales climbed 19.0% year over year to $96.7 million, led by strong demand for Veth products in Marine and Propulsion Systems and double-digit growth in North America. Gross margin...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Twin Disc Updates Investor Presentation With Non-GAAP Metrics
Neutral
May 6, 2026
Twin Disc said its executive officers planned to begin presenting updated materials to investors and analysts on or after May 6, 2026, with the same deck also made available on the company’s website. The company emphasized that these materia...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.