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Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)
NASDAQ:TW

Tradeweb Markets (TW) AI Stock Analysis

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TW

Tradeweb Markets

(NASDAQ:TW)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$123.00
▲(18.29% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (high margins, solid cash generation, and very low leverage). Earnings-call commentary reinforces healthy growth and international momentum, while technicals are only moderately supportive due to the stock still being below longer-term moving averages. Valuation (high P/E with low yield) is the main constraint on the overall score.
Positive Factors
High Profitability and Margins
Sustained high gross, EBITDA and net margins indicate a scalable, software-driven marketplace with strong pricing power and low incremental costs. These margins support reinvestment in platform improvements, shareholder returns, and resilience through revenue cycles over the next several months.
Conservative Balance Sheet
Extremely low leverage and a high equity ratio provide financial flexibility to fund growth initiatives, absorb temporary revenue shocks, and pursue M&A or tech investments without stressing cash flow, strengthening the firm's durability across market cycles.
Diversified International and Product Growth
Strong international growth, alongside outsized gains in swaps and equities, reflects broadening revenue streams beyond U.S. rates. Geographic and product diversification reduces dependence on any single market or instrument, supporting steadier top-line growth over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Revenue Sensitivity to Market Volatility
Fee-based trading revenues are materially tied to market volatility and volumes. Prolonged low volatility can compress transaction fees and trading activity, creating a persistent headwind to revenue growth until market structure or product mix shifts reduce this sensitivity.
U.S. Credit Revenue Weakness
A sharp drop in U.S. credit, especially retail corporate credit, signals concentration risk in that vertical. If retail participation or credit market structure remains weak, this segment could underperform for months, pressuring aggregate revenue and limiting margin upside.
Voice Trading Eroding Treasury Share
Persistent client preference for complex voice trades constrains electronic market share gains in U.S. treasuries. Structural limits on electronic penetration for package/complex trades may cap growth in a core product area and require strategic responses to regain share.

Tradeweb Markets (TW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tradeweb Markets Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTradeweb Markets Inc. builds and operates electronic marketplaces in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company's marketplaces facilitate trading in a range of asset classes, including rates, credit, money markets, and equities. It offers pre-trade data and analytics, trade execution, and trade processing, as well as post-trade data, analytics, and reporting services. The company provides flexible order and trading systems to institutional investors in 45 markets across 25 currencies. It also offers a range of electronic, voice, and hybrid platforms to approximately 300 dealers and financial institutions on electronic or hybrid markets with Dealerweb platform; and trading solutions for financial advisory firms and traders with Tradeweb Direct platform. The company serves a network of approximately 2,500 clients in the institutional, wholesale, and retail client sectors. Its customers include asset managers, hedge funds, insurance companies, central banks, banks and dealers, proprietary trading firms, retail brokerage and financial advisory firms, and regional dealers. Tradeweb Markets Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Tradeweb Markets Inc. is a subsidiary of Refinitiv Parent Limited.
How the Company Makes MoneyTradeweb generates revenue primarily through transaction fees and subscription services. The company charges clients a fee based on the volume of trades executed on its platforms, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, Tradeweb offers subscription-based access to its trading systems, providing clients with real-time data, analytics, and execution capabilities. Key revenue streams include fees from trading in fixed income products, derivatives, and equities. Partnerships with major financial institutions and investment firms enhance Tradeweb's market presence and contribute to its earnings by expanding its client base and increasing trading volumes on its platforms.

Tradeweb Markets Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Tradeweb's earnings call highlighted strong revenue growth and international expansion, bolstered by significant gains in global swaps and equities. However, challenges such as low market volatility impacting revenues in certain segments and a decrease in U.S. credit revenues were noted. The company remains optimistic about future growth and innovation, especially in digital initiatives.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Tradeweb delivered over $500 million in quarterly revenues for the third consecutive quarter, with year-to-date revenues up 21% or 17% organically. The company is on track for another year of double-digit revenue growth.
International Revenue Surge
International revenues increased by 25% year-over-year, with strategic initiatives in EM and APAC contributing to this growth.
Expansion in Equities
Equities posted a 17% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by global ETFs and equity derivatives.
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 54 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2024.
Significant Growth in Global Swaps
Global swaps delivered record revenues with over 30% year-over-year growth, driven by strong client engagement and favorable macro conditions.
Digital Initiatives Revenue
Tradeweb earned $2.3 million from digital initiatives, specifically from their work with the Canton Network.
Negative Updates
Low Volatility Impact
The quarter saw a significant drop in intraday volatility, down 19% year-over-year and 30% quarter-over-quarter, impacting U.S. treasury revenues which decreased by 2% year-over-year.
Challenges in U.S. Credit
Revenues in U.S. credit fell year-over-year, mainly due to retail corporate credit revenues being down nearly 30% year-over-year.
Voice Trading Impact on Market Share
The rise of complex voice-centric package trades affected U.S. treasury market share, which stood at 22% in the third quarter.
Company Guidance
In Tradeweb's third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance for the future. Tradeweb reported over $500 million in quarterly revenues for the third consecutive quarter, with a year-to-date revenue increase of 21% or 17% organically. The company saw a 13% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter, driven by strong client activity despite low market volatility. International revenues grew by 25% year-over-year, reflecting successful strategic initiatives in emerging markets (EM) and the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. The company highlighted that adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 54 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2024. Additionally, Tradeweb's partnerships and innovations in electronic trading, swaps, and digital assets continue to be areas of focus, with a 40% year-to-date growth in swaps revenues and a 17% year-over-year increase in equities revenues. The firm expects continued growth and innovation, particularly in the realm of electronic trading and tokenized assets, as they remain committed to expanding their market share and enhancing client experiences globally.

Tradeweb Markets Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tradeweb Markets demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and robust profitability. The income statement reflects a stable and growing business with solid profitability metrics, while the balance sheet shows low leverage and financial stability. Cash flow metrics indicate strong cash generation and efficient cash management.
Income Statement
Tradeweb Markets demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, evidenced by a 3.09% increase in TTM revenue. The company maintains robust profitability, with a gross profit margin of 66.39% and a net profit margin of 31.59% in TTM, reflecting efficient cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 33.05% and 52.11%, respectively, indicating strong operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a stable and growing business with solid profitability metrics.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Tradeweb Markets is strong, characterized by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0216 in TTM, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity is 10.86%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 78.56%, highlighting a solid capital structure with a significant proportion of assets financed by equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability and prudent management of liabilities.
Cash Flow
Tradeweb Markets exhibits healthy cash flow metrics, with a 5.42% growth in free cash flow in TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 6.36, suggesting efficient conversion of income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.95, reflecting effective cash management. Overall, the cash flow statement indicates robust cash generation and efficient cash utilization.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.99B1.73B1.34B1.19B1.08B892.66M
Gross Profit1.33B1.13B877.91M756.36M669.19M543.00M
EBITDA1.18B978.68M681.10M617.82M542.88M428.57M
Net Income630.01M501.51M364.87M309.34M226.83M166.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.00B7.27B7.06B6.26B5.99B5.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.91B1.34B1.71B1.26B973.05M792.28M
Total Debt135.63M35.75M49.08M27.94M24.33M34.46M
Total Liabilities1.06B869.11M1.13B713.82M681.24M660.69M
Stockholders Equity6.28B5.80B5.37B4.95B4.65B4.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.02B856.78M684.33M572.73M526.67M400.70M
Operating Cash Flow1.09B897.74M746.09M632.82M578.02M443.23M
Investing Cash Flow-138.01M-969.19M-132.76M-60.10M-259.11M-62.54M
Financing Cash Flow-222.56M-290.26M-168.17M-276.70M-136.10M-52.69M

Tradeweb Markets Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price103.98
Price Trends
50DMA
107.02
Negative
100DMA
111.12
Negative
200DMA
124.87
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Positive
RSI
41.54
Neutral
STOCH
33.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 103.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.62, below the 50-day MA of 107.02, and below the 200-day MA of 124.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TW.

Tradeweb Markets Risk Analysis

Tradeweb Markets disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tradeweb Markets reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tradeweb Markets Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$33.12B16.2917.64%1.26%6.45%5.85%
75
Outperform
$31.38B33.9519.82%0.46%11.88%28.96%
73
Outperform
$24.59B35.4710.51%0.45%22.17%40.13%
70
Outperform
$25.06B20.1230.24%81.43%119.47%
68
Neutral
$6.27B28.7115.88%1.66%3.96%-20.33%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
63
Neutral
$12.59B22.006.36%2.52%-5.41%25.28%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TW
Tradeweb Markets
103.98
-25.51
-19.70%
IBKR
Interactive Brokers
70.16
24.59
53.96%
JEF
Jefferies
61.05
-8.43
-12.13%
MKTX
Marketaxess Holdings
171.68
-41.80
-19.58%
RJF
Raymond James Financial
168.38
16.18
10.63%
FUTU
Futu Holdings
180.08
104.95
139.69%

Tradeweb Markets Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Tradeweb Markets Amends Long-Term Market Data Agreements
Positive
Jan 6, 2026

On December 31, 2025, Tradeweb Markets LLC entered into a series of amendments, effective November 1, 2025, to its master data license agreement with Refinitiv US LLC and Refinitiv US Organization LLC, affiliates of London Stock Exchange Group, revising several data schedules after a prior schedule terminated on October 31, 2024. Under the amended and restated data schedules, Tradeweb will continue to license certain fixed income and derivatives market data, including real-time feeds, to Refinitiv and its affiliates in exchange for a mix of fixed license fees and revenue-based fees, with an initial term running from November 1, 2025, through October 31, 2028, renewable for up to two additional two-year periods and featuring an optional 12‑month transition period to support orderly changes to data distribution arrangements, thereby reinforcing Tradeweb’s long-term data partnership with its controlling shareholder’s affiliates and securing a multi-year revenue framework from its market data business.

The most recent analyst rating on (TW) stock is a Hold with a $119.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tradeweb Markets stock, see the TW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tradeweb Markets Renews Data Agreement with Refinitiv
Positive
Oct 30, 2025

Tradeweb Markets LLC has reached an agreement-in-principle with Refinitiv US LLC and Refinitiv US Organization LLC to renew their current data schedules under the master data license agreement for an additional three-year term, effective retrospectively from November 1, 2025. This renewal reflects the enhanced quality of data provided by Tradeweb Markets and is subject to final documentation and board approval. Additionally, Tradeweb Markets reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with a 13.3% increase in quarterly revenues and a 61.7% rise in net income compared to the previous year. The company achieved record trading volumes and average daily volume, driven by growth across rates, equities, and money markets. Tradeweb continues to innovate and expand its market presence, including advancements in electronic trading and global settlement networks.

The most recent analyst rating on (TW) stock is a Buy with a $122.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tradeweb Markets stock, see the TW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 07, 2026