Valeura Energy Inc J (TSE:VLE)
TSX:VLE
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Valeura Energy
(TSX:VLE)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
C$13.50
▲(15.19% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial footing (low leverage and strong operating cash flow), tempered by weakening free cash flow and thin net profitability. Technical indicators are neutral-to-mixed with soft near-term momentum, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Conservative Leverage
A low debt-to-equity (~0.17) gives Valeura structural financial flexibility uncommon in cyclical upstream E&P firms. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk, enabling the company to fund exploration or sustain operations through commodity downcycles over the next several months.
Negative Factors
Declining Free Cash Flow
A ~45% decline in FCF and FCF only ~0.35x of net income signal that rising capex or working-capital swings are consuming cash. That materially limits distributable cash and the ability to pursue optional growth or opportunistic M&A over the medium term, reducing financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Leverage
A low debt-to-equity (~0.17) gives Valeura structural financial flexibility uncommon in cyclical upstream E&P firms. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk, enabling the company to fund exploration or sustain operations through commodity downcycles over the next several months.
Read all positive factors
Valeura Energy (VLE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.31B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)285.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)67.0
Beta (1Y)-0.21
Revenue Growth-15.99%
EPS Growth-93.93%
CountryCA
Employees189
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding105,538,650
10 Day Avg. Volume356,913
30 Day Avg. Volume285,476
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.41
P/FCF Ratio9.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$17.23Price Target Upside47.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$633.01M
Valeura Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valeura Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey. As of December 31, 2021, the company had interests in six production leases and exploration licens...
How the Company Makes Money
Valeura Energy makes money primarily by producing and selling crude oil (and any associated natural gas) from its upstream assets. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold to buyers under applicable offtake arrangements, with realized r...
Valeura Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 14, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong operational and financial performance with significant growth in Thailand and improved financial metrics. However, challenges like production guidance at the lower end and share price decline are noted. The overall sentiment is positive due to the outweighing highlights.Positive Updates
Successful Country Entry into Thailand
Valeura Energy has successfully entered Thailand, executing key projects like the Wassana oilfield development and a farm-in with PTTEP, setting the company for long-term growth in the region.
Negative Updates
Production Guidance at Lower End
Valeura reiterated its guidance but expects production to be at the lower end, despite current improvements.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Country Entry into Thailand
Valeura Energy has successfully entered Thailand, executing key projects like the Wassana oilfield development and a farm-in with PTTEP, setting the company for long-term growth in the region.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During Valeura Energy's Q3 2025 call, the company provided an optimistic outlook, highlighting several key metrics. The production in November exceeded previous quarterly averages for 2025, driven by increased output from the Nong Yao field, which is the most profitable. Operating expenses (OpEx) are trending towards the lower end of guidance, with a noted reduction in emissions intensity by up to 30% compared to the previous year. Financially, the operating metrics improved with strong margins despite current oil prices, enhancing the company's balance sheet and funding potential for future opportunities. The company's strategic farm-in with PTTEP has significantly increased its acreage in Thailand, and Valeura is set to earn a 40% interest in these operations. The Wassana project, a key growth area, is on track for first oil by Q2 2027, with the project currently 35% complete and expected to stay on or below budget. Valeura also highlighted their cash position, with adjusted net working capital improving by nearly 70% year-over-year, supporting ongoing and future investments. The call emphasized continued focus on transformational opportunities, with a robust suite of potential deals in the pipeline.Valeura Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 608.32M | 614.22M | 678.79M | 493.46M | 352.03K | 3.13M |
| Gross Profit | 190.66M | 198.70M | 399.47M | 298.07M | -5.42M | 1.18M |
| EBITDA | 261.87M | 284.52M | 337.67M | 421.08M | -15.71M | -82.05M |
| Net Income | 15.53M | 23.17M | 240.80M | 245.03M | -12.21M | -64.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 869.71M | 884.17M | 857.31M | 704.31M | 64.01M | 45.22M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 238.88M | 282.23M | 236.54M | 133.87M | 17.52M | 40.83M |
| Total Debt | 71.18M | 92.34M | 74.47M | 73.64M | 11.09M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 318.42M | 342.36M | 329.03M | 420.14M | 35.55M | 2.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 551.28M | 541.81M | 528.28M | 284.18M | 26.04M | 43.13M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 82.42M | 87.20M | 149.95M | -83.30M | -17.91M | -3.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 341.91M | 274.15M | 305.62M | 27.48M | -17.87M | -3.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -251.80M | -185.97M | -161.57M | 130.35M | -16.42M | 14.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -45.38M | -46.43M | -41.14M | -41.80M | 11.13M | -28.00K |
Valeura Energy Technical Analysis
Neutral
11.72
Price Trends
13.41
Negative
11.73
Positive
9.55
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.09
Positive
42.24
Neutral
15.93
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VLE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.99, below the 50-day MA of 13.41, and above the 200-day MA of 9.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:VLE.
Valeura Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | C$983.47M | -9.41 | 1.01% | 7.59% | -12.78% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | C$575.65M | 5.87 | 18.59% | ― | 26.91% | -44.78% | |
62 Neutral | C$1.31B | 67.03 | 2.21% | ― | -15.99% | -93.93% | |
58 Neutral | C$1.81B | -4.63 | 61.60% | ― | 592.03% | ― | |
57 Neutral | C$1.01B | -11.13 | -120.46% | 4.07% | -33.71% | -9581.24% | |
55 Neutral | C$1.14B | -11.89 | 0.08% | ― | -34.90% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:VLE
Valeura Energy
12.22
4.67
61.85%
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Obsidian Energy
16.74
9.82
141.91%
TSE:SGY
Surge Energy
9.99
4.92
96.92%
TSE:FEC
Frontera Energy
14.53
8.82
154.29%
TSE:TNZ
Tenaz Energy Corp
57.41
39.56
221.62%
TSE:SNM
ShaMaran Petroleum
0.19
<0.01
2.70%
Valeura Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valeura Builds Cash and Accelerates Projects on Strong Q1 Output
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
Valeura Energy reported first-quarter 2026 production of 22,300 barrels of oil per day, generating US$92.3 million in revenue from 1.394 million barrels sold at an average realised price of US$66.2 per barrel. Because there were no crude liftings ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valeura Energy Posts Strong 2025 Results and Expands Growth Platform in Thailand and Türkiye
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
Valeura Energy reported strong 2025 results, with oil production averaging 23,200 barrels per day and annual sales of 8.5 million barrels, underpinned by successful drilling on key Thai fields. The company achieved a 192% proved plus probable rese...
Business Operations and Strategy
Valeura Boosts Manora Output After Better-Than-Expected Gulf of Thailand Drilling
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
Valeura Energy has completed a three-well infill drilling and appraisal campaign at its Manora field in the Gulf of Thailand, with all wells successfully converted to oil producers. The programme lifted Manora’s working-interest oil output f...
Business Operations and Strategy
Valeura Sees Limited Impact From Thailand’s New Fuel Export Curbs
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
Valeura Energy has responded to newly issued Thai government decrees that immediately restrict exports of key refined fuels such as gasoline, diesel, jet A1 and liquified petroleum gas, while leaving crude oil exports unaffected. The company posit...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Valeura to Keep Thai Oil at Home as Bangkok Moves to Bolster Energy Security
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026
Valeura Energy says it is cooperating with a request from Thailand’s Ministry of Energy for domestic oil producers to prioritise national energy security by delaying planned production downtime and temporarily suspending crude exports in res...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.