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Valeura Energy Inc J (TSE:VLE)
TSX:VLE

Valeura Energy (VLE) AI Stock Analysis

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Valeura Energy

(TSX:VLE)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$8.00
▲(12.52%Upside)
Valeura Energy's strong financial performance and recent corporate events highlight robust operational capabilities and strategic growth initiatives. While technical analysis suggests caution due to mixed signals, the low P/E ratio indicates attractive valuation. The stock's overall score reflects its strong fundamentals and positive outlook despite technical headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash Position
Valeura reported a net cash position of $238 million at end-March.
Operational Success
Operations remain on-track with the Nong Yao maintenance programme now complete.
Production Targets
This is an important catalyst for the group as it underpins management's target to maintain production between 20-25 kbopd out past 2030.
Project Economics
Taking FID at Wassana demonstrates the strength of economics from the project and also the strength of Valeura's balance sheet, such that it is in a position to reinvest, despite the current market volatility.
Negative Factors
Net Asset Value
The development concept at Wassana closely matches what was already assumed, so the NAV increases, which can narrow the discount the shares trade at versus the NAV.
Share Valuation
Our NAV stands at C$11.09/sh, and we are unlikely to make any significant changes to it on the back of these results.

Valeura Energy (VLE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Valeura Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionValeura Energy Inc. (VLE) is a Canada-based oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas. The company primarily operates in the Southeast Asia region, focusing on offshore production assets. Valeura aims to leverage its technical expertise and strategic partnerships to optimize resource extraction and maximize shareholder value.
How the Company Makes MoneyValeura Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. Its key revenue streams involve the sale of crude oil and natural gas derived from its production activities. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures which provide access to capital, technology, and additional market opportunities. Additionally, Valeura may engage in the acquisition of assets that complement its existing portfolio, further enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as global oil prices, operational efficiency, production volumes, and market demand for energy resources.

Valeura Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: -12.76%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with substantial production increases, cost efficiency, and a strong financial position driven by strategic restructuring. Despite lower Q3 production and oil price challenges, the company demonstrates robust performance and future growth potential.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Production Increase
Q4 production expected around 26,000 barrels per day, up more than 35% from Q4 2023, with potential 2025 production exceeding current analyst consensus.
Cost Management and Efficiency Gains
CapEx at the low end of guidance with improved drilling efficiency yielding 22 production wells against an original plan of 16. Operational costs are improving with OpEx per barrel at $26.3.
Corporate Restructuring and Tax Efficiency
Completion of corporate restructuring allows Thai assets to access $400 million in tax losses, significantly enhancing cash flow.
Strong Cash Flow and Financial Position
Ending Q3 with $156 million in cash, highest inventory of 1.2 million barrels, and strong adjusted working capital of $160 million.
Share Buyback Program Initiated
Announcement of a share buyback program with a maximum of 7.3 million shares, reflecting confidence in undervalued share price.
Environmental and Safety Achievements
Expected 15% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions intensity and no lost time incidents or spills reported.
Negative Updates
Lower Production in Q3
Q3 production averaged 22,200 barrels, lower compared to the previous quarter, due to mismatch between production and liftings.
Oil Price Decline
Realized oil prices impacted by declining market prices in August and September, affecting revenue generation.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Valeura Energy, several key metrics and guidance were discussed. Production in Q3 slightly exceeded that of Q2, despite challenges with the Wassana field, and is expected to reach around 26,000 barrels per day in Q4, reflecting a more than 35% increase over Q4 2023. For 2025, production is anticipated to surpass current analyst consensus. Operational costs are aligning with guidance, with CapEx at the low end of the forecast. Notably, efficiencies have allowed for 22 production wells against an original plan of 16. Cash flow was robust, ending Q3 with $156 million and a record high inventory of 1.2 million barrels. A significant corporate restructuring was completed, enabling access to $400 million in tax losses, boosting near-term cash flow. Additionally, a share buyback program was initiated, supported by the strong balance sheet and expected accelerated cash flow. Overall, Valeura Energy remains focused on maintaining production levels, optimizing capital allocation, and seeking value-accretive M&A opportunities.

Valeura Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Valeura Energy exhibits strong financial health with robust profitability metrics and effective cash flow management. The company's low leverage and solid capital structure enhance financial stability despite minor equity reductions. While revenue growth has faced headwinds, operational efficiency and cash generation capabilities remain solid.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Valeura Energy shows strong profitability with a solid gross profit margin of 53.15% and a robust net profit margin of 34.75% in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Despite a slight revenue decline compared to the previous year, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 22.63% and 52.47% respectively, indicating efficient cost management and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company maintains a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13, indicating low leverage. A strong equity ratio of 65.36% highlights a solid capital structure. However, a decrease in stockholders' equity over the past year suggests potential challenges in asset growth or profitability.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Valeura Energy has demonstrated a strong cash flow performance with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.07, indicating effective cash generation relative to profits. Although the free cash flow has decreased from the previous year, the overall cash flow management remains robust, supporting liquidity and operational needs.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue677.47M678.79M493.46M352.03K3.13M8.55M
Gross Profit360.16M399.47M298.07M-5.42M1.18M403.00K
EBITDA355.62M337.67M421.08M-15.71M-82.05M-1.39M
Net Income235.45M240.80M245.03M-12.21M-64.55M-19.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets823.06M857.31M704.31M64.01M45.22M54.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments215.47M236.54M133.87M17.52M40.83M30.14M
Total Debt68.75M74.47M73.64M11.09M0.000.00
Total Liabilities284.93M329.03M420.14M35.55M2.09M12.91M
Stockholders Equity538.14M528.28M284.18M26.04M43.13M41.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow93.62M149.95M-83.30M-17.91M-3.20M-3.27M
Operating Cash Flow251.66M305.62M27.48M-17.87M-3.16M-145.00K
Investing Cash Flow-168.16M-161.57M130.35M-16.42M14.05M-5.03M
Financing Cash Flow-45.00M-41.14M-41.80M11.13M-28.00K-68.00K

Valeura Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price7.11
Price Trends
50DMA
7.49
Negative
100DMA
7.51
Negative
200DMA
6.68
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Positive
RSI
40.38
Neutral
STOCH
8.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VLE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.60, below the 50-day MA of 7.49, and above the 200-day MA of 6.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:VLE.

Valeura Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSCJ
78
Outperform
C$1.08B9.4812.42%10.70%3.79%3.87%
TSVLE
76
Outperform
C$755.63M2.3155.56%17.88%248.15%
TSSNM
76
Outperform
C$644.45M5.7343.82%104.07%
TSTAL
74
Outperform
C$631.38M4.7718.60%12.12%11.68%-30.95%
TSSDE
65
Neutral
$764.23M35.973.68%-27.80%-96.88%
TSKEC
61
Neutral
C$932.62M20.736.02%6.01%-99.01%
44
Neutral
AU$1.38B-6.76-23.02%6.69%5.33%-26.92%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:VLE
Valeura Energy
7.16
2.76
62.73%
TSE:SDE
Spartan Delta
3.80
-0.29
-7.09%
TSE:TAL
PetroTal Corp
0.68
0.03
4.62%
TSE:CJ
Cardinal Energy
6.77
0.80
13.40%
TSE:SNM
ShaMaran Petroleum
0.22
0.14
175.00%
TSE:KEC
Kiwetinohk Energy Corp.
22.76
9.48
71.39%

Valeura Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Valeura Energy Completes Successful Drilling Campaign in Gulf of Thailand
Positive
May 27, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. has successfully completed an eight-well drilling campaign at its Licence B5/27 in the Gulf of Thailand, achieving results that exceeded expectations in several wells. The campaign included development and appraisal wells across multiple platforms, contributing to stable oil production rates and setting the stage for future drilling initiatives. This operation underscores the company’s ability to manage and extend the economic life of its assets, maintaining consistent cash flow and production levels.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$9.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Valeura Energy Announces AGM Voting Results and Board Elections
Neutral
May 16, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. announced the results of its annual general meeting, where shareholders approved the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as auditors and elected the company’s board of directors. The voting results reflect strong shareholder support for most nominees, with Dr. W. Sean Guest and Timothy N. Chapman receiving unanimous approval, while James D. McFarland and Chalermchai Mahagitsiri received lower approval rates. This outcome reinforces the company’s governance structure as it continues its strategic growth initiatives in the oil and gas sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$9.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valeura Energy Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Increased Production and Cash Flow
Positive
May 14, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. reported a strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with a notable 9% increase in oil production compared to the same period last year, reaching 23,853 barrels per day. The company’s strategic corporate restructuring has led to a 55% increase in adjusted cash flow from operations, amounting to US$74 million, despite stable revenue levels. This financial resilience is further supported by a robust balance sheet, boasting US$239 million in cash and no debt, positioning Valeura to pursue growth opportunities and withstand market volatility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Valeura Energy Commits to Major Redevelopment of Wassana Field
Positive
May 14, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. has made a final investment decision to redevelop the Wassana field in the Gulf of Thailand, aiming to significantly increase production and extend the field’s life. The project will involve constructing a new central processing platform, with first oil expected in 2027, and is projected to increase reserves and production capacity, providing substantial economic returns and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valeura Energy Reports Strong Q1 2025 Performance Amid Market Volatility
Positive
Apr 9, 2025

Valeura Energy reported a strong operational and financial performance in Q1 2025, with oil production averaging 23.9 mbbls/d and a robust cash position of US$238.3 million. Despite a decrease in production due to planned maintenance, the company remains resilient with no debt and is well-positioned for potential growth opportunities amid market volatility. The company completed its corporate restructuring, enhancing its tax efficiency, and reaffirmed its production guidance for 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 28, 2025