Valeura Energy Inc J (TSE:VLE)
TSX:VLE
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Valeura Energy (VLE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:VLE

Valeura Energy

(TSX:VLE)

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Outperform 81 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
C$8.00
▲(14.45% Upside)
Valeura Energy's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and attractive valuation, indicating a solid investment opportunity. The positive sentiment from the earnings call further supports this view, despite mixed technical indicators suggesting caution in the short term.
Positive Factors
Strong Financial Health
Valeura's strong financial health, marked by profitability and low leverage, supports its ability to invest in growth and withstand market fluctuations.
Strategic Expansion in Thailand
The expansion into Thailand through strategic partnerships enhances Valeura's resource base and positions it for long-term growth in a new market.
Improved Cash Position
A strong cash position provides Valeura with the financial flexibility to fund ongoing and future investments, supporting sustainable growth.
Negative Factors
Production Guidance at Lower End
Lower production guidance may limit revenue growth potential, impacting long-term operational performance and financial outcomes.
Share Price Decline
A declining share price can affect investor confidence and the company's ability to raise capital, potentially hindering future growth initiatives.
Tax Loss Utilization
Dependence on oil prices for tax loss utilization introduces uncertainty in financial planning, potentially affecting cash flow and profitability.

Valeura Energy (VLE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Valeura Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionValeura Energy Inc. is a Canadian-based oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the development of unconventional resources in Turkey. The company primarily operates in the Thrace Basin, where it has established a significant position in natural gas production. Valeura is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbons, with a core focus on natural gas and associated liquids, leveraging innovative technologies to enhance recovery and optimize production processes.
How the Company Makes MoneyValeura Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural gas and oil produced from its operations in Turkey. The company's revenue model is based on the production and sale of hydrocarbons at market prices, which can fluctuate based on supply and demand dynamics in the energy market. Key revenue streams include the sale of natural gas to local and regional markets, as well as the potential for future sales of crude oil. Additionally, Valeura may benefit from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance operational efficiency and expand its resource base, thereby contributing to its earnings. The company also focuses on cost management and operational optimization to improve profitability amidst varying commodity prices.

Valeura Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 14, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong operational and financial performance with significant growth in Thailand and improved financial metrics. However, challenges like production guidance at the lower end and share price decline are noted. The overall sentiment is positive due to the outweighing highlights.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Country Entry into Thailand
Valeura Energy has successfully entered Thailand, executing key projects like the Wassana oilfield development and a farm-in with PTTEP, setting the company for long-term growth in the region.
Financial Metrics Improvement
All operating financial metrics have improved compared to the previous year and quarter, with strong margins even at current oil prices and a significant strengthening of the balance sheet.
Production and Cost Efficiency
Current production in November is higher than any quarterly averages in 2025, with OpEx heading towards the lower end of guidance, indicating effective cost management.
Emission Reductions
Valeura has achieved a 30% decrease in emissions intensity since taking over assets a year ago.
PTTEP Deal Enhances Acreage
The farm-in with PTTEP increases Valeura's acreage position significantly, providing diversity and long-term growth opportunities in Thailand.
Positive Financial Performance
There is a notable increase in production (up 7% from last quarter) and lifting (up 14%), with OpEx per barrel reduced significantly to $24.8.
Strong Cash Position
Valeura's cash position and adjusted net working capital have nearly doubled compared to the previous year, providing a solid financial foundation.
Negative Updates
Production Guidance at Lower End
Valeura reiterated its guidance but expects production to be at the lower end, despite current improvements.
Share Price Decline
Despite delivering strong performance, Valeura has seen a disappointing slide in share price in recent months.
Tax Loss Utilization
The company expects to utilize its tax losses over the next 2-3 years, with the timing dependent on oil prices.
Company Guidance
During Valeura Energy's Q3 2025 call, the company provided an optimistic outlook, highlighting several key metrics. The production in November exceeded previous quarterly averages for 2025, driven by increased output from the Nong Yao field, which is the most profitable. Operating expenses (OpEx) are trending towards the lower end of guidance, with a noted reduction in emissions intensity by up to 30% compared to the previous year. Financially, the operating metrics improved with strong margins despite current oil prices, enhancing the company's balance sheet and funding potential for future opportunities. The company's strategic farm-in with PTTEP has significantly increased its acreage in Thailand, and Valeura is set to earn a 40% interest in these operations. The Wassana project, a key growth area, is on track for first oil by Q2 2027, with the project currently 35% complete and expected to stay on or below budget. Valeura also highlighted their cash position, with adjusted net working capital improving by nearly 70% year-over-year, supporting ongoing and future investments. The call emphasized continued focus on transformational opportunities, with a robust suite of potential deals in the pipeline.

Valeura Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Valeura Energy shows strong financial health with high profitability margins and efficient cash flow management. Despite a slight revenue decline, the company maintains robust margins and a stable balance sheet with low leverage, positioning it well for future growth.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Valeura Energy's income statement shows strong profitability with a high net profit margin of 34.75% and a solid EBIT margin of 23.64% for the TTM period. Despite a slight revenue decline of 5.12% in the TTM, the company maintains robust gross and EBITDA margins, indicating efficient operations. Historical data shows significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2023, highlighting a positive growth trajectory.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13, suggesting conservative leverage. The return on equity is impressive at 55.46%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at a strong level, showcasing stability in asset financing. However, the company should monitor its debt levels to maintain this stability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate of 40.67% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.76 suggests efficient cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.37, indicating room for improvement in cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue642.77M678.79M493.46M352.03K3.13M8.55M
Gross Profit333.10M399.47M298.07M-5.42M1.18M403.00K
EBITDA321.72M337.67M421.08M-15.71M-82.05M-1.39M
Net Income229.59M240.80M245.03M-12.21M-64.55M-19.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets859.32M857.31M704.31M64.01M45.22M54.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments218.77M236.54M133.87M17.52M40.83M30.14M
Total Debt99.55M74.47M73.64M11.09M0.000.00
Total Liabilities316.64M329.03M420.14M35.55M2.09M12.91M
Stockholders Equity542.67M528.28M284.18M26.04M43.13M41.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow131.70M149.95M-83.30M-17.91M-3.20M-3.27M
Operating Cash Flow285.75M305.62M27.48M-17.87M-3.16M-145.00K
Investing Cash Flow-150.14M-161.57M130.35M-16.42M14.05M-5.03M
Financing Cash Flow-48.73M-41.14M-41.80M11.13M-28.00K-68.00K

Valeura Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.99
Price Trends
50DMA
6.87
Positive
100DMA
7.36
Negative
200DMA
7.44
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Negative
RSI
61.37
Neutral
STOCH
77.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VLE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.61, above the 50-day MA of 6.87, and below the 200-day MA of 7.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:VLE.

Valeura Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
C$675.59M2.1258.06%23.77%198.71%
75
Outperform
C$1.27B14.268.46%8.21%-9.30%-26.09%
71
Outperform
C$673.09M5.695.65%46.17%-82.95%
68
Neutral
C$593.79M5.5014.69%21.03%-2.90%-31.97%
66
Neutral
$1.41B35.927.22%17.31%-75.56%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
61
Neutral
C$1.07B8.2114.74%25.52%77.39%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:VLE
Valeura Energy
7.27
2.04
39.01%
TSE:CJ
Cardinal Energy
9.04
3.20
54.79%
TSE:TAL
PetroTal Corp
0.40
-0.16
-28.57%
TSE:SNM
ShaMaran Petroleum
0.26
0.16
155.00%
TSE:SDE
Spartan Delta
7.25
3.85
113.24%
TSE:KEC
Kiwetinohk Energy Corp.
24.54
9.34
61.45%

Valeura Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valeura Energy Reports Robust Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Expansion
Positive
Nov 14, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. reported strong financial and operational results for Q3 2025, with significant increases in oil production and revenue. The company achieved a major offshore acreage expansion in the Gulf of Thailand and entered a joint venture in Türkiye, positioning itself for future growth and transformation. Its financial health is robust, with a record working capital surplus and no debt, setting the stage for both organic and inorganic growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Hold with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Valeura Energy Enters Joint Venture for Thrace Basin Gas Exploration
Positive
Oct 15, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. has entered a joint venture with Pinnacle Turkey, Inc. and Transatlantic Petroleum LLC to explore and develop deep gas formations in the Thrace basin of northwest Türkiye. This agreement marks a strategic move for Valeura, as it seeks to capitalize on the significant gas potential discovered in previous drilling programs. The joint venture aims to test and potentially commercialize these resources, leveraging higher European gas prices and Transatlantic’s operational expertise in Türkiye. This initiative could enhance Valeura’s market position and provide value to stakeholders by advancing exploration activities in a region with proven hydrocarbon presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valeura Energy Boosts Production and Expands Acreage in Q3 2025
Positive
Oct 9, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. reported a successful Q3 2025, highlighted by a ten-well drilling campaign at its Nong Yao field, boosting production to 24.8 mbbls/d by quarter-end. The company maintained a strong financial position with a cash reserve of $248.3 million and no debt, facilitating ongoing investments. Additionally, Valeura expanded its offshore acreage through a strategic farm-in agreement in the Gulf of Thailand, positioning itself for future growth and development. The company’s operations continued safely and efficiently, with significant progress on the Wassana field redevelopment project, aiming for first oil by Q2 2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valeura Energy Tops Canada’s 2025 Growth Rankings
Positive
Sep 30, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. has been ranked as the No. 1 company on the Report on Business magazine’s 2025 list of Canada’s Top Growing Companies, achieving a remarkable 20,064% revenue growth over three years. This accolade highlights Valeura’s successful execution of its growth strategy and its disciplined approach to value creation, positioning the company as a leader in its industry and underscoring its commitment to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 18, 2025