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Valeura Energy Inc J (TSE:VLE)
TSX:VLE
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Valeura Energy (VLE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:VLE

Valeura Energy

(TSX:VLE)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
C$10.00
▲(14.16%Upside)
Valeura Energy's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary drivers of its overall score. The company benefits from a solid financial structure and effective cash flow management, positioning it well in the oil and gas sector. While technical analysis shows mixed signals, the overall upward price trend and strategic corporate developments support a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Project Development
Taking FID at Wassana demonstrates the strength of economics from the project and also the strength of Valeura's balance sheet, such that it is in a position to reinvest, despite the current market volatility.
Reserves Growth
Valeura has confirmed that it has taken FID on redevelopment of the Wassana field, which will increase 2P reserves to 20.5 mmbbls.
Negative Factors
Market Volatility
Valeura's strong balance sheet, low cash breakeven and ability to adjust capital programmes positions the company well for a period of price volatility.

Valeura Energy (VLE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Valeura Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionValeura Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey. As of December 31, 2021, the company had interests in six production leases and exploration licenses covering approximately 0.23 million gross acres and 0.19 net acres of deep rights in the Thrace Basin of northwest Turkey. Valeura Energy Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyValeura Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. Its key revenue streams involve the sale of crude oil and natural gas derived from its production activities. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures which provide access to capital, technology, and additional market opportunities. Additionally, Valeura may engage in the acquisition of assets that complement its existing portfolio, further enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as global oil prices, operational efficiency, production volumes, and market demand for energy resources.

Valeura Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: 7.48%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with substantial production increases, cost efficiency, and a strong financial position driven by strategic restructuring. Despite lower Q3 production and oil price challenges, the company demonstrates robust performance and future growth potential.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Production Increase
Q4 production expected around 26,000 barrels per day, up more than 35% from Q4 2023, with potential 2025 production exceeding current analyst consensus.
Cost Management and Efficiency Gains
CapEx at the low end of guidance with improved drilling efficiency yielding 22 production wells against an original plan of 16. Operational costs are improving with OpEx per barrel at $26.3.
Corporate Restructuring and Tax Efficiency
Completion of corporate restructuring allows Thai assets to access $400 million in tax losses, significantly enhancing cash flow.
Strong Cash Flow and Financial Position
Ending Q3 with $156 million in cash, highest inventory of 1.2 million barrels, and strong adjusted working capital of $160 million.
Share Buyback Program Initiated
Announcement of a share buyback program with a maximum of 7.3 million shares, reflecting confidence in undervalued share price.
Environmental and Safety Achievements
Expected 15% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions intensity and no lost time incidents or spills reported.
Negative Updates
Lower Production in Q3
Q3 production averaged 22,200 barrels, lower compared to the previous quarter, due to mismatch between production and liftings.
Oil Price Decline
Realized oil prices impacted by declining market prices in August and September, affecting revenue generation.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Valeura Energy, several key metrics and guidance were discussed. Production in Q3 slightly exceeded that of Q2, despite challenges with the Wassana field, and is expected to reach around 26,000 barrels per day in Q4, reflecting a more than 35% increase over Q4 2023. For 2025, production is anticipated to surpass current analyst consensus. Operational costs are aligning with guidance, with CapEx at the low end of the forecast. Notably, efficiencies have allowed for 22 production wells against an original plan of 16. Cash flow was robust, ending Q3 with $156 million and a record high inventory of 1.2 million barrels. A significant corporate restructuring was completed, enabling access to $400 million in tax losses, boosting near-term cash flow. Additionally, a share buyback program was initiated, supported by the strong balance sheet and expected accelerated cash flow. Overall, Valeura Energy remains focused on maintaining production levels, optimizing capital allocation, and seeking value-accretive M&A opportunities.

Valeura Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Valeura Energy demonstrates strong financial health with robust profitability metrics, effective cash flow management, and a low leverage ratio. Despite minor equity reductions and revenue growth challenges, the company's operational efficiency and cash generation capabilities are solid.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Valeura Energy shows strong profitability with a solid gross profit margin of 53.15% and a robust net profit margin of 34.75% in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Despite a slight revenue decline compared to the previous year, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 22.63% and 52.47% respectively, indicating efficient cost management and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company maintains a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13, indicating low leverage. A strong equity ratio of 65.36% highlights a solid capital structure. However, a decrease in stockholders' equity over the past year suggests potential challenges in asset growth or profitability.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Valeura Energy has demonstrated a strong cash flow performance with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.07, indicating effective cash generation relative to profits. Although the free cash flow has decreased from the previous year, the overall cash flow management remains robust, supporting liquidity and operational needs.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue677.47M678.79M493.46M352.03K3.13M8.55M
Gross Profit360.16M399.47M298.07M-5.42M1.18M403.00K
EBITDA355.62M337.67M421.08M-15.71M-82.05M-1.39M
Net Income235.45M240.80M245.03M-12.21M-64.55M-19.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets823.06M857.31M704.31M64.01M45.22M54.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments215.47M236.54M133.87M17.52M40.83M30.14M
Total Debt68.75M74.47M73.64M11.09M0.000.00
Total Liabilities284.93M329.03M420.14M35.55M2.09M12.91M
Stockholders Equity538.14M528.28M284.18M26.04M43.13M41.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow93.62M149.95M-83.30M-17.91M-3.20M-3.27M
Operating Cash Flow251.66M305.62M27.48M-17.87M-3.16M-145.00K
Investing Cash Flow-168.16M-161.57M130.35M-16.42M14.05M-5.03M
Financing Cash Flow-45.00M-41.14M-41.80M11.13M-28.00K-68.00K

Valeura Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price8.76
Price Trends
50DMA
7.36
Positive
100DMA
7.45
Positive
200DMA
6.92
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Negative
RSI
72.96
Negative
STOCH
51.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VLE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.22, above the 50-day MA of 7.36, and above the 200-day MA of 6.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.96 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:VLE.

Valeura Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
C$1.17B10.1112.42%10.24%3.79%3.87%
77
Outperform
C$743.59M2.8455.56%17.88%248.15%
74
Outperform
C$640.21M4.8418.60%20.37%11.68%-30.95%
73
Outperform
C$630.13M5.6043.82%104.07%
52
Neutral
C$2.96B-1.54-3.48%6.52%3.05%-49.39%
$705.60M43.643.68%
61
Neutral
C$989.67M21.706.02%6.01%-99.01%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:VLE
Valeura Energy
8.76
4.58
109.57%
TSE:CJ
Cardinal Energy
7.25
0.99
15.81%
TSE:TAL
PetroTal Corp
0.71
0.08
12.70%
TSE:SNM
ShaMaran Petroleum
0.22
0.14
175.00%
DALXF
Spartan Delta
3.41
0.51
17.59%
TSE:KEC
Kiwetinohk Energy Corp.
22.25
8.75
64.81%

Valeura Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Valeura Energy Expands Gulf of Thailand Operations with PTTEP Partnership
Positive
Jul 25, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. has entered into a strategic Farm-in Agreement with PTTEP, acquiring a 40% interest in Blocks G1/65 and G3/65 in the Gulf of Thailand. This agreement significantly expands Valeura’s acreage, positioning it near major gas fields and existing infrastructure, which supports immediate exploration and appraisal activities. The collaboration aims to leverage PTTEP’s expertise in the region, enhancing Valeura’s growth prospects through infrastructure-led exploration and development opportunities, ultimately driving value for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$9.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valeura Energy Advances Wassana Field Redevelopment Amid Strong Q2 Performance
Positive
Jul 8, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. reported a safe and steady Q2 2025 with oil production averaging 21.4 mbbls/d, despite a planned decrease in production. The company maintained its full-year production guidance and reported revenue of US$129.3 million, with a strong cash position of US$241.9 million and no debt. Valeura is advancing its Wassana Field redevelopment project, moving into the construction phase, aiming to boost production and efficiency. The company’s strategic focus on balance sheet strength and development projects positions it well amidst fluctuating global oil prices.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$9.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Valeura Energy Completes Successful Drilling Campaign in Gulf of Thailand
Positive
May 27, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. has successfully completed an eight-well drilling campaign at its Licence B5/27 in the Gulf of Thailand, achieving results that exceeded expectations in several wells. The campaign included development and appraisal wells across multiple platforms, contributing to stable oil production rates and setting the stage for future drilling initiatives. This operation underscores the company’s ability to manage and extend the economic life of its assets, maintaining consistent cash flow and production levels.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$9.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Valeura Energy Announces AGM Voting Results and Board Elections
Neutral
May 16, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. announced the results of its annual general meeting, where shareholders approved the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as auditors and elected the company’s board of directors. The voting results reflect strong shareholder support for most nominees, with Dr. W. Sean Guest and Timothy N. Chapman receiving unanimous approval, while James D. McFarland and Chalermchai Mahagitsiri received lower approval rates. This outcome reinforces the company’s governance structure as it continues its strategic growth initiatives in the oil and gas sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$9.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valeura Energy Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Increased Production and Cash Flow
Positive
May 14, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. reported a strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with a notable 9% increase in oil production compared to the same period last year, reaching 23,853 barrels per day. The company’s strategic corporate restructuring has led to a 55% increase in adjusted cash flow from operations, amounting to US$74 million, despite stable revenue levels. This financial resilience is further supported by a robust balance sheet, boasting US$239 million in cash and no debt, positioning Valeura to pursue growth opportunities and withstand market volatility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Valeura Energy Commits to Major Redevelopment of Wassana Field
Positive
May 14, 2025

Valeura Energy Inc. has made a final investment decision to redevelop the Wassana field in the Gulf of Thailand, aiming to significantly increase production and extend the field’s life. The project will involve constructing a new central processing platform, with first oil expected in 2027, and is projected to increase reserves and production capacity, providing substantial economic returns and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 26, 2025