Valeura Energy (VLE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.07B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 285.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: 23.77%
• EPS Growth: 198.71%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 189
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 105,538,650
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 356,913
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 285,476
• PEG Ratio: -0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.13
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$13.65
• Price Target Upside: 35.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 82 Outperform
• Price Target: C$11.50 ▲(13.86% Upside)

Valeura Energy's strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive earnings call sentiment are the most significant factors driving the score. The technical analysis supports a bullish outlook, although the stock's recent price decline and production guidance at the lower end are potential concerns. Overall, the company is well-positioned for growth in the oil and gas sector.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Very low leverage and a strong equity base provide durable financial flexibility to fund development spending, absorb commodity shocks, and pursue strategic deals. This supports multi-year projects and reduces refinancing risk during industry cycles.

High Profitability and Margins

Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins reflect efficient lifting costs and operating scale in core assets. Strong margins enhance cash generation, enabling reinvestment in growth projects and strengthening resilience through lower oil-price periods.

Strategic Thailand Growth Pipeline

The PTTEP farm-in and Wassana development materially expand acreage and partner-backed capacity. Progress on Wassana (35% complete) de-risks future production and creates a multi-year growth runway and resource base in a core operating jurisdiction.

Negative Factors

Rising Total Debt

Although leverage remains low, rising absolute debt levels can erode optionality if the trend continues. Higher debt raises interest and refinancing exposure, potentially constraining capital allocation to long-lead projects or opportunistic M&A.

Free Cash Flow Volatility

Volatile free cash flow complicates multi-year planning for capital-intensive projects like Wassana. Inconsistent FCF can force reliance on external financing or slowed reinvestment during weak quarters, increasing execution and funding risk.

Constrained Near-Term Production Visibility

Guidance pegged to the lower end signals limited near-term volume upside, which can delay cash flow accretion from new developments. Prolonged under-performance versus guidance could push out monetization of tax attributes and slow balance sheet deleveraging.

Valeura Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valeura Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey. As of December 31, 2021, the company had interests in six production leases and exploration licenses covering approximately 0.23 million gross acres and 0.19 net acres of deep rights in the Thrace Basin of northwest Turkey. Valeura Energy Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Valeura Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural gas and oil produced from its operations in Turkey. The company's revenue model is based on the production and sale of hydrocarbons at market prices, which can fluctuate based on supply and demand dynamics in the energy market. Key revenue streams include the sale of natural gas to local and regional markets, as well as the potential for future sales of crude oil. Additionally, Valeura may benefit from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance operational efficiency and expand its resource base, thereby contributing to its earnings. The company also focuses on cost management and operational optimization to improve profitability amidst varying commodity prices.

Valeura Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valeura Energy exhibits strong financial health with robust profitability, a solid balance sheet, and strong cash flow generation. The company has managed to maintain growth and profitability in a challenging industry. While the balance sheet is stable, the increase in debt and past volatility in cash flows should be monitored. Overall, the financials indicate a well-managed company with a positive outlook.

Income Statement

Valeura Energy demonstrates strong profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of 51.8% and a net profit margin of 35.7%. Revenue growth is positive at 2.5% TTM, indicating steady growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 20.9% and 50.1% respectively, showcasing efficient operations. However, the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, which could be a concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18 TTM, indicating low leverage and financial stability. Return on equity is robust at 43.3%, reflecting effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 64.4%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to assets. However, the increase in total debt over the past year could be monitored for potential risks.

Cash Flow

Valeura Energy's cash flow position is strong with a free cash flow growth rate of 17.3% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.37, showing good cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.46, suggesting a healthy level of free cash flow relative to profits. However, past volatility in free cash flow growth rates suggests potential fluctuations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	659.14M	678.79M	493.46M	352.03K	3.13M	8.55M
Gross Profit	349.25M	399.47M	298.07M	-5.42M	1.18M	403.00K
EBITDA	332.91M	337.67M	421.08M	-15.71M	-82.05M	-1.39M
Net Income	255.28M	240.80M	245.03M	-12.21M	-64.55M	-19.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	866.79M	857.31M	704.31M	64.01M	45.22M	54.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	313.66M	236.54M	133.87M	17.52M	40.83M	30.14M
Total Debt	129.06M	74.47M	73.64M	11.09M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	429.55M	329.03M	420.14M	35.55M	2.09M	12.91M
Stockholders Equity	558.07M	528.28M	284.18M	26.04M	43.13M	41.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	154.48M	149.95M	-83.30M	-17.91M	-3.20M	-3.27M
Operating Cash Flow	342.63M	305.62M	27.48M	-17.87M	-3.16M	-145.00K
Investing Cash Flow	-200.37M	-161.57M	130.35M	-16.42M	14.05M	-5.03M
Financing Cash Flow	-50.85M	-41.14M	-41.80M	11.13M	-28.00K	-68.00K

Valeura Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VLE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.78, above the 50-day MA of 8.17, and above the 200-day MA of 7.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.83 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.83 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:VLE.

Valeura Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLE	82 Outperform	C$1.07B	3.09	58.06%	―	23.77%	198.71%
TNZ	79 Outperform	C$1.07B	5.23	98.62%	―	194.52%	10204.44%
SGY	69 Neutral	$729.71M	16.39	5.87%	7.59%	-7.36%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
FEC	53 Neutral	C$654.97M	-1.23	-28.23%	4.07%	-2.65%	-591.26%
SNM	52 Neutral	C$661.35M	38.33	5.65%	―	46.17%	-82.95%
OBE	48 Neutral	C$660.42M	-3.12	-14.96%	―	-11.85%	-307.86%

Valeura Energy Corporate Events

Valeura Energy Posts Record Cash, Sets 2026 Spending Plan on Thai Oil Assets

Valeura Energy reported that its fourth-quarter 2025 performance met guidance and lifted its cash holdings to a record US$305.7 million with no debt, supported by average Q4 oil production of 24,721 bbls/d and full-year output of 23,242 bbls/d. A successful development drilling campaign at the Jasmine and Ban Yen fields in Block B5/27 delivered a 100% success rate and helped drive higher production and expected reserves replacement, while full-year 2025 revenue reached US$594.4 million and greenhouse gas intensity fell a further 13%, marking a 30% reduction since acquiring the Thailand portfolio in 2023. For 2026, the company guided to midpoint oil production of 21,000 bbls/d, capex and exploration spending of about US$185 million (including a major Wassana field redevelopment) and adjusted operating expenses of US$205 million, positioning this year as a temporary dip in volumes ahead of the planned restart of Wassana in 2027 and underscoring its ambitions for both organic and inorganic growth in its core Asia-Pacific markets and in Türkiye.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Valeura Energy Launches New Share Buyback Program

Valeura Energy Inc. has announced the approval of a new Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) by the Toronto Stock Exchange, allowing the company to repurchase up to 10% of its public float, or 6,298,884 common shares, over the next year. This move is designed to offset natural dilution and enhance shareholder value, reflecting the company’s belief that its market price does not fully represent its intrinsic value and future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.

Valeura Energy Reports Robust Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Expansion

Valeura Energy Inc. reported strong financial and operational results for Q3 2025, with significant increases in oil production and revenue. The company achieved a major offshore acreage expansion in the Gulf of Thailand and entered a joint venture in Türkiye, positioning itself for future growth and transformation. Its financial health is robust, with a record working capital surplus and no debt, setting the stage for both organic and inorganic growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VLE) stock is a Hold with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valeura Energy stock, see the TSE:VLE Stock Forecast page.